Da har også ARC tatt frem kalkulatoren og sett på RECSI med nye øyne etter siste kvartalsfremleggelse. De opprettholder kjøp med kursmål 26,- (27,-) og skriver blant annet følgende:

"REC Silicon ASA
Recommendation: Buy · Target Price: NOK 26.0 (27.0) · Current Share Price: NOK 13.48

Several routes to a reopening
Q4 was characterized by higher prices and volumes than we anticipated, and we consequently revise our ’22 estimates somewhat higher. With Build Back Better seeming stranded in its current form, we have delayed our base case reopening point by six months and lowered the reopening probability by 10pp. That said, by increasing the ML margin assumption and moving the valuation point out to YE’22, we revise our TP only slightly down to NOK 26 (27).

Strong 2022 outlook for Butte and several routes to a ML reopening
RECSI delivered Q4 figures ahead of our expectations, with sales up 19% QoQ, driven by higher prices and sold volumes. We expect the positive development to continue in 2022, with increasing volumes as logistical bottlenecks ease and prices should increase as less favourable existing offtake contracts gradually will be replaced by new ones. The long-term outlook for/rationale behind restarting Moses Lake remains firm, and there are several routes to a reopening. Should the SEMA act be carved out from Build Back Better and pass US Congress separately, it would trigger sufficient investments in ingot/wafer production in the US to secure necessary utilization. If not, as energy security/less Chinese dependency has moved up the agenda across the political spectrum, subsidies with a similar objective in a different shape or form could pass at a later point. Sufficient utilization could also be reached without US political support if existing ingot/wafer manufacturers follow in the footsteps of e.g. JinkoSolar and diversify their offtake through ingot/wafer expansions outside China.

Valuation and recommendation
Our TP of NOK 26 is based on a 70% chance of a Moses Lake reopening, where the output mix gradually will skew towards the battery industry in 50% of the reopening scenarios. We’ve lowered the reopening probability from 80% to 70% and delayed the expected reopening point by six months to YE’23, partly offset by assuming higher ML margins (as energy costs are fixed at a lower rate than we previously assumed) and by moving the valuation point out to YE’22.

PLEASE NOTE THAT ARCTIC SECURITIES ACTED AS FINANCIAL ADVISOR FOR REC SILICON IN THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT

Arctic Securities AS
Daniel Stenslet
Adrian Bergem"

Som man ser bruker ARC nå 70% sannsynlighet for en reåpning av ML, mens SB1M som kom med sin analyse forrige uke hadde 80% sannsynlighet for reåpning. De nevner også at det er flere veier til målet med en reåpning, men i likhet med SB1M ser det ikke ut til at de har tatt med effekten av SB 5849 de heller.