GOGL - November #1
Bulk report – Week 44
2 November 2018
Capesize
A largely disappointing week for those still hoping for a firmer end to the year, but at least by the close of the week rates appeared to have steadied. The rate for West Australia/Qingdao dropped to the mid $8.00s fresh enquiry today checked the fall with rates around $8.60 for the miners and a touch more for operators. There was a rumour of $8.90 down for 25 November onwards from full West Australia load options to Qingdao. Timecharter rates closed out at reasonable numbers with a 2007 177,000 tonner fixed from Fancheng for a West Australian round at $22,500 daily. Heading towards the Atlantic, Saldanha/Qingdao was concluded at $17.00, but so far Brazil/China rates still stayed below $22.00. Further north, there was continued debate regarding where to put the transatlantic rate, but again, visibility was limited. Jera booked tonnage form Bolivar to Rotterdam with some suggesting the rate was in the low $10.00s, but there was talk of easier numbers on voyage, with some suggesting on this basis the transatlantic route was something in the $17,000s. Fronthaul rates slipped, but were still near the mid $30,000s. A well-described 179,000dwt 2015 built open Rotterdam fixed a trip via Port Cartier to Japan at $37,500 daily with MOL. Period fixing remained scarce, although a 181,000dwt 2009 built, prompt China, allegedly failed at $20,500 for about a year.
Panamax
On the whole it was an active week with a good level of volume concluded in all areas, although it did slow towards the weekend. The Pacific started the week looking weak in the North/strong in the South, but finished with sentiment the opposite way round. More NoPac enquiry throughout the week culminated in a well-described Kamsarmax fixed basis delivery north China at $14,750, for a round, whilst a lack of Indonesian business for vessels in the South was off-set by increased South American enquiry. Despite a consistent amount of business in the Atlantic, the oversupply of tonnage in the North Atlantic put paid to any potential improvement, although some pointed to a tightening in the Mediterranean. The South was very active again, with early November ballasters still able to fix prompt stems, but it was the end November position that saw the most attention, with a slight improvement to around $16,500 plus $650,000 ballast bonus for Kamsarmaxes.
http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-44-3/
2 November 2018
Capesize
A largely disappointing week for those still hoping for a firmer end to the year, but at least by the close of the week rates appeared to have steadied. The rate for West Australia/Qingdao dropped to the mid $8.00s fresh enquiry today checked the fall with rates around $8.60 for the miners and a touch more for operators. There was a rumour of $8.90 down for 25 November onwards from full West Australia load options to Qingdao. Timecharter rates closed out at reasonable numbers with a 2007 177,000 tonner fixed from Fancheng for a West Australian round at $22,500 daily. Heading towards the Atlantic, Saldanha/Qingdao was concluded at $17.00, but so far Brazil/China rates still stayed below $22.00. Further north, there was continued debate regarding where to put the transatlantic rate, but again, visibility was limited. Jera booked tonnage form Bolivar to Rotterdam with some suggesting the rate was in the low $10.00s, but there was talk of easier numbers on voyage, with some suggesting on this basis the transatlantic route was something in the $17,000s. Fronthaul rates slipped, but were still near the mid $30,000s. A well-described 179,000dwt 2015 built open Rotterdam fixed a trip via Port Cartier to Japan at $37,500 daily with MOL. Period fixing remained scarce, although a 181,000dwt 2009 built, prompt China, allegedly failed at $20,500 for about a year.
Panamax
On the whole it was an active week with a good level of volume concluded in all areas, although it did slow towards the weekend. The Pacific started the week looking weak in the North/strong in the South, but finished with sentiment the opposite way round. More NoPac enquiry throughout the week culminated in a well-described Kamsarmax fixed basis delivery north China at $14,750, for a round, whilst a lack of Indonesian business for vessels in the South was off-set by increased South American enquiry. Despite a consistent amount of business in the Atlantic, the oversupply of tonnage in the North Atlantic put paid to any potential improvement, although some pointed to a tightening in the Mediterranean. The South was very active again, with early November ballasters still able to fix prompt stems, but it was the end November position that saw the most attention, with a slight improvement to around $16,500 plus $650,000 ballast bonus for Kamsarmaxes.
http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-44-3/
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 12:49
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utaskjærs
05.11.2018 kl 01:09
8082
Begynner uken med en positiv prognose: Capezise ratene skal opp og det samme gjelder kursen i Golden Ocean sier analytiker Petter Haugen i Kepler Cheuvreux. https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/11/Meglerhus-om-toerrbulk-Det-beste-er-i-vente
Volf
05.11.2018 kl 09:27
7834
BULK:10 CAPESIZE-SLUTNINGER FREDAG -ARROW
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om ti capesize-slutninger fredag, der samtlige er for jernmalmbefraktning.
Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Arrow Shipbroking Group.
Det ble sluttet åtte reiser til Qingdao, der fire er fra Dampier i Australia, fire er fra Vest-Australia og to er fra Port Hedland i Australia.
Ellers er det gjort to timecharter-reiser.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om ti capesize-slutninger fredag, der samtlige er for jernmalmbefraktning.
Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Arrow Shipbroking Group.
Det ble sluttet åtte reiser til Qingdao, der fire er fra Dampier i Australia, fire er fra Vest-Australia og to er fra Port Hedland i Australia.
Ellers er det gjort to timecharter-reiser.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Kbkristi
05.11.2018 kl 10:11
7687
Klipper litt fra artikkelen:
"Meglerhuset anslår at moderne Capesize-skip med en lastekapasitet på rundt 180.000 dødvekttonn, vil oppnå spotrater på 22.000 dollar dagen i 2019, og hele 35.600 dollar pr. dag i 2020, noe som i så fall vil bli det høyeste årsgjennomsnittet på 11 år.
Periodevis kan imidlertid ratene bli enda høyere."
Om det virkelig er snitt for året det er snakk om så kan dette gi ihvertfall 30 cent pr kvartal for 2019 og 60 cent pr kv. for 2020 i utbytte.
Og dette er meget konservative tall, da jeg kun la inn tallene for de capes som går i spot idag, og lot resten av flåten stå på stedet hvil.
"Meglerhuset anslår at moderne Capesize-skip med en lastekapasitet på rundt 180.000 dødvekttonn, vil oppnå spotrater på 22.000 dollar dagen i 2019, og hele 35.600 dollar pr. dag i 2020, noe som i så fall vil bli det høyeste årsgjennomsnittet på 11 år.
Periodevis kan imidlertid ratene bli enda høyere."
Om det virkelig er snitt for året det er snakk om så kan dette gi ihvertfall 30 cent pr kvartal for 2019 og 60 cent pr kv. for 2020 i utbytte.
Og dette er meget konservative tall, da jeg kun la inn tallene for de capes som går i spot idag, og lot resten av flåten stå på stedet hvil.
Redigert 05.11.2018 kl 10:14
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laser
05.11.2018 kl 11:25
7544
Samme meglerhus (antar det basis det du skriver) har en antagelse om Q3 18 utbytte på usd 0,25 - høyere enn jeg ville antatt, men de pleier å treffe bra - og det støtter din vurdering
Redigert 05.11.2018 kl 11:26
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Kbkristi
05.11.2018 kl 11:41
7494
Jeg tipper de gir $ 0,25 for Q3, og da tar de et par cent fra kassa.
Men det store spørsmålet er hva de gjør med Premium account. Der kan det komme en joker.
Kun 10 hele børsdager igjen til vi får svaret.
Men det store spørsmålet er hva de gjør med Premium account. Der kan det komme en joker.
Kun 10 hele børsdager igjen til vi får svaret.
Volf
05.11.2018 kl 12:18
7364
BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS -3,5% TIL USD 17.768/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er ned 3,5 prosent til 17.768 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange mandag.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er ned 3,5 prosent til 17.768 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange mandag.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Kbkristi
06.11.2018 kl 12:03
6897
Ordreboken øker stadig. Den ventede oppgangen kan kanskje bli kortvarig.
Cosco Shipping to order 25 capesize vessels to move bauxite from Guinea to China
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 06/11/2018
According to a Wall Street Journal report, Chinese Cosco Shipping Cop. is in discussion with shipyards in China to order about 25 large ships to ship bauxite from the West African country of Guinea to China for using in the alumina refineries.
The development is an extension of a plan by state aluminium major Aluminum Corp. of China (Chalco) to invest US$700 million in Guinea’s Boffa bauxite project to secure supply of the raw material over the next decade. Cosco is working towards increasing its fleet on the back of a long-term contract it signed with Chalco to move bauxite to China from Guinea.
Guinea has the potential to be the largest Bauxite supplier in the world with 7.4 billion bauxite reserve which is about 25% of the world’s total bauxite reserves. The country accounts for 95% of African bauxite production and 15% of world bauxite production. Lately, with the increase of alumina and bauxite demand from China, and mining bans in countries like Malaysia and Indonesia, there is a renew interest in Guinea bauxite. Aluminium firms from the U.S., China, Middle East and Russia are trying to procure its massive bauxite-ore deposits.
Cosco Shipping to order 25 capesize vessels to move bauxite from Guinea to China
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 06/11/2018
According to a Wall Street Journal report, Chinese Cosco Shipping Cop. is in discussion with shipyards in China to order about 25 large ships to ship bauxite from the West African country of Guinea to China for using in the alumina refineries.
The development is an extension of a plan by state aluminium major Aluminum Corp. of China (Chalco) to invest US$700 million in Guinea’s Boffa bauxite project to secure supply of the raw material over the next decade. Cosco is working towards increasing its fleet on the back of a long-term contract it signed with Chalco to move bauxite to China from Guinea.
Guinea has the potential to be the largest Bauxite supplier in the world with 7.4 billion bauxite reserve which is about 25% of the world’s total bauxite reserves. The country accounts for 95% of African bauxite production and 15% of world bauxite production. Lately, with the increase of alumina and bauxite demand from China, and mining bans in countries like Malaysia and Indonesia, there is a renew interest in Guinea bauxite. Aluminium firms from the U.S., China, Middle East and Russia are trying to procure its massive bauxite-ore deposits.
Volf
06.11.2018 kl 12:10
6869
BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS -4,1% TIL USD 17.033/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er ned 4,1 prosent til 17.033 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange tirsdag.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er ned 4,1 prosent til 17.033 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange tirsdag.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Sa2ri
06.11.2018 kl 15:50
6572
Synlig short redusert til 0 etter dagens oppdatering:
OLD MUTUAL GLOBAL INVESTORS (UK) LIMITED - < 0,5% 05.11.2018
OLD MUTUAL GLOBAL INVESTORS (UK) LIMITED - < 0,5% 05.11.2018
ole
07.11.2018 kl 19:29
6283
Fant en interessant artikkel her: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4219340-eagle-bulk-shipping-inc-egle-ceo-gary-vogel-q3-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript
sheepman
07.11.2018 kl 22:59
6030
Tja, de fikk dårligere resultat i Q2, enn i Q3... - Ratene har vel ikke helt slått til som forventet i Q3. Det er vel også reflektert noe i kursen på GOGL og SBLK. Uansett: takk for info!
utaskjærs
08.11.2018 kl 04:44
5877
Dette ser jo bra ut, Kina går fremdeles så det suser:
Handelsvekst i Kina tross handelskrig
Den kinesiske eksporten økte med 15,6 prosent i oktobe mot 14,5 prosent i september. Importen økte med 21,4 prosent i amerikanske dollar – langt høyere enn konsensus på 14 prosent.
Kina fikk et overskudd på handelsbalansen på 34 milliarder dollar – en milliard dollar lavere enn ventet.
Handelsstatistikkene med USA er foreløpig ikke offentliggjort.
Handelsvekst i Kina tross handelskrig
Den kinesiske eksporten økte med 15,6 prosent i oktobe mot 14,5 prosent i september. Importen økte med 21,4 prosent i amerikanske dollar – langt høyere enn konsensus på 14 prosent.
Kina fikk et overskudd på handelsbalansen på 34 milliarder dollar – en milliard dollar lavere enn ventet.
Handelsstatistikkene med USA er foreløpig ikke offentliggjort.
Mollen
08.11.2018 kl 07:49
5759
Fra Fearnleys ukesrapport :
Capesize
The Q4 market has disappointed so far, with the index plunging by nearly 25% just the
last week. Current indications are that the downward market trend will continue in the
coming days. The disappointing market action has likely caught out those with bullish
positions, leading to an extremely sharp sell-off on FFA markets the last days which
has likely exacerbated the bearish physical trend. Going forward, we still expect a
market improvement before year-end, but by now it seems clear that the 40,000 USD
p/d + market many had expected will not materialize.
Capesize
The Q4 market has disappointed so far, with the index plunging by nearly 25% just the
last week. Current indications are that the downward market trend will continue in the
coming days. The disappointing market action has likely caught out those with bullish
positions, leading to an extremely sharp sell-off on FFA markets the last days which
has likely exacerbated the bearish physical trend. Going forward, we still expect a
market improvement before year-end, but by now it seems clear that the 40,000 USD
p/d + market many had expected will not materialize.
KJEPET
08.11.2018 kl 10:44
5592
Rateutviklingen er skuffende. Men for oss som venter på billig inngang skal man ikke klage. Da er 3% oppgang blåst vekk på én time. Her er det bare å vente til hjerneblødningen er stoppet. Forhåpentligvis godt ned på 50-tallet i slutten av neste uke :-)
Sa2ri
10.11.2018 kl 10:10
5314
9 November 2018
Capesize
It was a brutal week for the big ships as rates tumbled on all routes. A BHP Billiton derailment in West Australia sparked fears of a shortfall in shipments leaving the field clear for others to drive rates lower. Latest reports suggest operations could resume early this week. The West Australia/China run closed at $6.75 compared to $8.30 paid Monday. Timecharterer trading was negligible, with a report of a 175,000 tonner fixing at $14,000 for a NoPac round proving unfounded. On Monday, the BCI NoPac round was assessed at $18,021. The market collapsed in the Atlantic, with Brazil/China cargoes fixed around $16.00 to $17.00, while charterers aimed to fix at $11.00, basis Saldanha to Qingdao. In the North Atlantic, the divergence in rates between transatlantic and fronthaul was quickly narrowed, as business fixed on voyage from St.Lawrence to the East at rates nearer to the low $20,000. Transatlantic timecharter rates were barely in the teens. Physical activity triggered a major sell-off in paper, with November and December both losing over $7,000 daily in a week.
Panamax
A relatively uneventful week, especially when compared to the Cape market. The Pacific was under pressure all week due to over tonnage, particularly on the early positions, with owners forced to lower their expectations to find cover. Indian coal was one of the few routes to remain active, but rates dropped from around $13,000 for a Kamsarmax the previous week, to fixtures being concluded at $11,000 by the end of the last week. The North Atlantic fared better, with a steady amount of new business gradually soaking up tonnage, sources suggested that voyage rates had been showing improved returns than the implied timecharter levels. South America was less active than the previous week, but rates remained steady. Period fixing was sporadic and rates have eased in line with falling FFA values, with a modern Kamsarmax fixed for one year at below $13,000.
http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-45-3/
Capesize
It was a brutal week for the big ships as rates tumbled on all routes. A BHP Billiton derailment in West Australia sparked fears of a shortfall in shipments leaving the field clear for others to drive rates lower. Latest reports suggest operations could resume early this week. The West Australia/China run closed at $6.75 compared to $8.30 paid Monday. Timecharterer trading was negligible, with a report of a 175,000 tonner fixing at $14,000 for a NoPac round proving unfounded. On Monday, the BCI NoPac round was assessed at $18,021. The market collapsed in the Atlantic, with Brazil/China cargoes fixed around $16.00 to $17.00, while charterers aimed to fix at $11.00, basis Saldanha to Qingdao. In the North Atlantic, the divergence in rates between transatlantic and fronthaul was quickly narrowed, as business fixed on voyage from St.Lawrence to the East at rates nearer to the low $20,000. Transatlantic timecharter rates were barely in the teens. Physical activity triggered a major sell-off in paper, with November and December both losing over $7,000 daily in a week.
Panamax
A relatively uneventful week, especially when compared to the Cape market. The Pacific was under pressure all week due to over tonnage, particularly on the early positions, with owners forced to lower their expectations to find cover. Indian coal was one of the few routes to remain active, but rates dropped from around $13,000 for a Kamsarmax the previous week, to fixtures being concluded at $11,000 by the end of the last week. The North Atlantic fared better, with a steady amount of new business gradually soaking up tonnage, sources suggested that voyage rates had been showing improved returns than the implied timecharter levels. South America was less active than the previous week, but rates remained steady. Period fixing was sporadic and rates have eased in line with falling FFA values, with a modern Kamsarmax fixed for one year at below $13,000.
http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-45-3/
Sa2ri
15.11.2018 kl 08:29
4665
Etter en begredelig periode med store fall i ratene, tikker det nå inn justeringer fra et par meglerhus:
PAS: justert ned til 72,- (97)
SB1M: justert ned til 95,- (100).
PAS: justert ned til 72,- (97)
SB1M: justert ned til 95,- (100).
KJEPET
15.11.2018 kl 08:53
4601
Takk for den Sa2ri. Men spørsmålet er vel hvor mange 100 millioner mindre verdt blir i dag, og om vi nærmer oss 40.- tallet før helga. Kina har jo lagt ned og det er ikke behov for shippingtjenester fremover. Det holder med Valemaxene fremover ser det ut til. Da blir capene arbeidsledige.
Mollen
15.11.2018 kl 10:22
4462
Kina vinner i alle fall ikke noe handelskrig ved å slukke lysene og stenge ned... Kan ikke tenke meg at ting stopper opp nå. Først skal den kinesiske staten pumpe milliarder av kroner inn i økonomien som stimulansepakker for å få opp aktiviteten igjen. Siste ord er ikke sagt, verden går til helvete, men ikke enda. Først blir det en saftig rekyl. Vi får også håpe på god stemning i Argentina på toppmøte mellom Trump og Xi. Litt forsoning og kumbayastemning derifra hadde hjulpet på GOGL-kursen og det underliggende.
KJEPET
15.11.2018 kl 10:44
4399
Når endelig supply begynte å komme så falt demandproppen ut. Etter neste runde med skraping, skal vi få bonanza i 2020-2021.
Så forresten ut som om GOGL ikke var i minus i noen minutter på formiddagen. Er det bare noen gamle sider som henger igjen på skjermen min, eller er det sant?
Så forresten ut som om GOGL ikke var i minus i noen minutter på formiddagen. Er det bare noen gamle sider som henger igjen på skjermen min, eller er det sant?
laser
15.11.2018 kl 11:23
4303
Tenker det er en god kommentar til dagens situasjon - en annen ting er at dette kan være et planlagt stunt fra Kina for å vise konsekvensene av en langvarig handelskrig. Denne «krisen» kommer kort tid før G20 møtet. Merker meg også at Trump holder seg «hjemme» under toppmøtene i Asia - hans viktigste handelspartnere. Tenker partene presser hverandre maksimalt i forkant av G20 møtet - og derfor ikke ønsker å møtes. Klarer de å komme i havn til G20 møtet så vil det bety en kjempeboost for verdenshandelen. Trump trenger å få fremdrift - kun to år til gjenvalg - tiden er knapp, innsatsen og spenningen er høy.
KJEPET
15.11.2018 kl 11:32
4275
Det er noe som ikke stemmer overhodet nå. Absolutt alle, inklusive secondhand markedet, kjører på som vanlig. Guidingen fra selskapene likeså. Jeg anser dette som en gyllen anledning til å være med på bulkeventyret fremover.
https://splash247.com/weekly-broker-owners-unfazed-by-dry-bulk-freight-rate-collapse/
https://splash247.com/weekly-broker-owners-unfazed-by-dry-bulk-freight-rate-collapse/
Volf
15.11.2018 kl 12:20
4137
BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +5,9% TIL USD 8.458/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er opp 5,9 prosent til 8.458 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange torsdag.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er opp 5,9 prosent til 8.458 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange torsdag.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Empire
15.11.2018 kl 14:07
3802
Bra at jeg fikk litt mer napp der nede, før ratene gikk opp og domedag ble avlyst. Dette er nok suckers rally for ratene folkens, så her er det bare å selge ;)
Det går tydeligvis fort mellom himmel og helvete i shipping.
Det går tydeligvis fort mellom himmel og helvete i shipping.
KJEPET
15.11.2018 kl 14:33
3722
Det meldes om cape opp 15% på Twitter nå, som vanligvis ville vært en knallnyhet. Men dessverre er det bare russiske prosenter som Trygve pleier å si . Men en start er det jo:-)
sognoksen
15.11.2018 kl 15:41
3573
Har no kjøpt hva tror dere er det galskap og gå inn nå i dette markedet
ole
15.11.2018 kl 17:59
3414
Hadde bare handelskrigen løst seg :-) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/frozen-out-of-china-american-farmers-refuse-to-sell-their-soy/
ole
23.11.2018 kl 10:29
2806
Opp på høyt volum er vel lovende. Gogl er fortsatt billig. Ha en fin black friday :-)