RECSI - Department of Commerce initiates AD/CVD investigation


BREAKING: Dept. of Commerce to move forward with solar anticircumvention investigation
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/03/28/breaking-dept-of-commerce-to-move-forward-with-solar-anticircumvention-investigation/
MARCH 28, 2022
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The Department of Commerce (DOC) has decided to act on a petition filed by California-based solar module manufacturer Auxin Solar requesting that DOC review solar panel imports from Chinese companies working in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, announcing that it is launching an antidumping investigation into those companies.

Auxin’s petition alleges that solar cell and module manufacturers in Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam are using parts produced by Chinese companies, as a way to keep production cheap, while also skirting existing antidumping and countervailing (AD/CV) tariffs on Chinese goods, which have been in place since 2012.

In response to the decision, Auxin Solar released the following statement:

“For years, Chinese solar producers have refused to fairly price their products in the U.S. and have gone to significant lengths to continue undercutting American manufacturers and workers by establishing circumventing operations in countries not covered by those duties. We are grateful Commerce officials recognized the need to investigate this pervasive backdoor dumping and how it continues to injure American solar producers. Fair trade and enforcement of our trade laws are essential to rebuilding the American solar supply chain and making Solar in America again.”
...
"

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Commerce Department Decision Imperils U.S. Clean Energy Progress
https://www.seia.org/news/commerce-department-decision-imperils-us-clean-energy-progress
MARCH 28, 2022


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“The solar industry is still reeling from a similar tariff petition that surfaced last year. The mere threat of tariffs altered the industry’s growth trajectory and is one of the reasons why we’re now expecting a 19% decline in near-term solar forecasts. Taking up this case will have a chilling effect on the solar industry.

“Today’s decision responds to the self-interests of one company and will lead to more market volatility and job losses. Additional tariffs will cause the loss of 70,000 American jobs, including 11,000 manufacturing jobs. According to Wood Mackenzie, solar deployment will crater by 16 Gigawatts annually if tariffs are imposed. That’s two-thirds of all the solar energy installed last year. And over the next four years, U.S. carbon emissions will increase by 61 million metric tons.
..


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Commerce Department kicks off 1-year solar tariff investigation on panels imported from Southeast Asia
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/commerce-department-kicks-off-1-year-solar-tariff-investigation-on-panels-i/621153/
MARCH 29, 2022
“..
The Department of Commerce decision is expected on Jan. 26, 2023, with a possible extension to April 1, 2023. It will present preliminary findings of the investigation on Aug. 30, including a preliminary duty rate. The secretary of commerce will be able to apply any final duties retroactively to Nov. 4, 2021.
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US weighs solar tariffs, unsettling industry
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2316768-us-weighs-solar-tariffs-unsettling-industry
MARCH 30, 2022
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Commerce secretary Gina Raimondo would be able to apply any duties retroactively, to as far back as November 2021, according CEA. Suppliers have indicated they may stop shipments from the countries in question until the agency issues its final ruling, expected in the first part of 2023.

Module suppliers in countries that were not named in the investigation will "likely" raise prices in response, CEA said. Some countries with established suppliers — including Canada, Germany, Mexico and South Korea — are geared to manufacture products for smaller, distributed solar projects, not utility-scale systems.
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Biden energy chief voices ‘deep concern’ about tariff impact on US solar goals
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3470388-granholm-voices-deep-concern-about-potential-tariff-impact-on-solar-goals/
APRIL 28, 2022
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Antidumping and Countervailing Duties (AD/CVD) Frequently Asked Questions
https://www.cbp.gov/trade/priority-issues/adcvd/antidumping-and-countervailing-duties-adcvd-frequently-asked-questions
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Mere info i denne låste tråd
OBS: dette er gammel info om tidligere lignende petition fra A-SMACC. Som der skrives i artiklen fra pvmagazine
"The difference in the Auxin petition is that, instead of focusing on specific yet unnamed companies, Auxin is asking for a review of entire countries."
https://finansavisen.no/forum/thread/141215/view
Redigert 29.04.2022 kl 10:27 Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
28.04.2022 kl 10:02 6886

Latest SEIA analysis predicts 24 GW of lost solar in next two years due to AD/CVD investigation
https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2022/04/latest-seia-analysis-predicts-24-gw-of-lost-solar-in-next-two-years-due-to-ad-cvd-investigation/
APRIL 27, 2022**
“..
A total of 318 projects accounting for 51 GW of solar capacity and 6 GWh of attached battery storage are being canceled or delayed. Fully $52 billion of private investment is at risk. In addition, 70% of survey respondents report that at least half their solar and storage workforce is at risk and more than 200 companies report that their entire workforce is at risk.

“This case is destroying clean energy, and needlessly taking down American businesses and workers in its wake,” added Ms. Hopper. “It’s unfathomable that the President would allow his own administration’s actions to be the downfall of his clean energy vision.”

The gap to reaching President Biden’s clean energy goal has never been larger. By 2025, imposition of tariffs will cause solar capacity to fall 75 GW short of the pace needed to reach the president’s goal, equal to the size of the entire U.S. solar market prior to 2020.
..”
Redigert 28.04.2022 kl 10:05 Du må logge inn for å svare
Stabukk
28.04.2022 kl 10:43 6775

Takk igjen manman01. Og dette betyr at Q-Cells kan øke sin andel av solpanel bare Hanwha får ut fingeren og starter wafer-produksjon basert på poly fra Rec sin fabrikk i ML?
Aldersmessig er det ett 3 ganger eldre bestefars-hode enn din unge topplokk som spørger og trenger å bli opplyst…

Jeg ligger aldersmessig midt mellom dere to, så jeg er kanskje halveis rett i min antagelse her:)

Installasjonsbedriftene skriker etter paneler i USA nå, og QCells har 25% av markedet i USA. Disse panelene er jo ikke part av denne etterforskningen, og går vel rett ut på markedet?
Vil tro at vi i nærmeste fremtid vil bli bombardert med meldinger om "jumpstart" av ML, wafer på nabotomta, nye kontrakter og QCells som vil forsøke å øke markedsandelen i USA, og hvem skal da levere poly til dem, jo REC.

REC er på ballen for tiden, og søker etter folk. De skal også holde jobbmesse for å rekruttere mer folk, sjekk Facebook og Linkedin.
Tror røyken stiger høyt fra pipene i ML om et års tid.
Stabukk
28.04.2022 kl 11:20 6643

Takk for svar frå ein toppetasje som sikkert har alle sine små grå intakt! Ditt ressonement er ganske truverdig.
Alle signal peikar i retning av snarlig melding om restart av ML. Mitt problem er å forstå om denne meldinga er innbakt i dagens kurs.
Sa2ri
28.04.2022 kl 11:25 6583

Melding om gjenåpning av ML er ikke bakt inn i kursen p.t. - husk at en slik melding (med all sannsynlighet) vil inneholde en del forutsetninger for en slik åpning, hvor også kostnader forbundet med dette er nevnt. Det mest spennende er begrunnelsen for selve åpningen, tiden det vil ta å få fyrt i gang reaktorene, og hvor stor andel (%) de tenker seg de skal kjøre på til og begynne med (uten SEMA). Hvem som har forpliktet seg til å kjøpe poly/silan er også svært interessant og vil (med all sannsynlighet) også være en del av grunnlaget og med dette en del av informasjonen/begrunnelsen for denne beslutningen.
Oldgig
28.04.2022 kl 11:29 6653

Jeg tenker heller litt tilbake fra vi lå på 5 kr og rundt 10 kr, på de røkka vi fikk opp da på diverse meldinger. Var forsåvidt gode meldinger, men ingen av de så gode (og langt fra) som når vi får melding om oppstart. Så jeg tror ikke oppstart ligger inne i denne kursen. Men hvor mye den vil stige på melding, avhenger av hvilke kontrakter og utnyttelse av fabrikken. Vill gjetning: vil gå til mellom noen og tjue og 30 kr

Får da inderlig håpe at meldingene i neste uke inneholder noe mer en en ren åpning. Da "nestenmeldingen" om åpning fra Hanwha for noen dager siden, ble jo fort drept av shortere/tradere. Hilsen en som er 3-1/2 ganger manman01.
Vilter
28.04.2022 kl 11:31 6955

Imponert over TT som har predikert dette løpet, noen år før det faktisk ser ut til å skje. Synd han ikke får oppleve denne oppturen han har jobbet så hardt for.

Så er det store spørsmålet om den blir tradet og shorta istykker når den når motstandsnivå på 24/25 kr
manman01
28.04.2022 kl 11:56 6869

Dette vil jeg mene. I teorien er der jo mangel på ca 2 stk Moses Lake polykapacitet til 23 GW paneler, hvis jeg ikke tager helt fejl. Husk at dette kun er udfaldet fra at undersøgelsen starter. Der er mange flere GW paneler der vil blive annulleret såfremt disse lande bliver fundet skyldige.

Jeg vil tro at denne har større effekt på Hanwhas satsning end SEMA - men også at SEMA har en effekt på udfaldet af undersøgelsen. Hullet bliver jo nødt til at fyldes ud, hvis US vil have en chance om at nå deres klimamål. Hanwha har 2 års mulighed for at nappe disse markedsandele der er blevet opgivet som følge af undersøgelsen (:

Alderen er næppe et problem, vi hjælper hinanden uanset ((:
manman01
28.04.2022 kl 13:12 6701

Hahaha er dette den nye måde at måle alder på?😛😁

Men helt seriøst, ser vi en melding og plan for ML opstart d 3. maj, bliver det farligt for dem der sidder short. Mere end det allerede er nu.
manman01
29.04.2022 kl 09:30 6509

Biden energy chief voices ‘deep concern’ about tariff impact on US solar goals
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3470388-granholm-voices-deep-concern-about-potential-tariff-impact-on-solar-goals/
APRIL 28, 2022
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The top solar industry group blamed the Biden administration’s probe into allegations of Asian manufacturers dodging tariffs for the reduced forecast.

“I share your deep concern about this,” Granholm replied, saying the White House’s climate office is similarly concerned about such obstacles to reaching its renewable energy targets.

“It’s safe to say there is an awful lot of effort around how to address this, given that it is an adjudicative proceeding” by the Commerce Department, she added.

Granholm conceded that “we clearly have to accelerate” expansion of domestic solar manufacturing, pointing to such provisions in the department’s 2023 budget request.

“The bottom line is… we have to make sure we are not slowing down our efforts, but we’re also not installing panels that are circumventing or are potentially built with labor from the solar industry in Xinjiang.”


Granholm appeared before the panel to address the Energy Department’s fiscal 2023 budget. She is also slated to testify before the House Appropriations Committee on Thursday.
..
"
Redigert 29.04.2022 kl 09:31 Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
29.04.2022 kl 10:49 6315

Sort på hvidt, af selveste US DoE sekretær Jennifer Granholm. Bliver det mere Bull?
manman01
30.04.2022 kl 16:45 5930

Policies at Cross-Purposes: U.S. Trade Policy Creates Cloudy Picture for Rapid Deployment of Solar Energy
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/policies-at-cross-purposes-u-s-trade-4487580/
APRIL 29, 2022
manman01
02.05.2022 kl 12:36 5406

Det kan meget vel være vi får en afgørelse på denne tidligere end forventet. Udfaldet vil ikke blive påvirket af senatorerne fremskynder processen. Magtens tredeling og alt det

Senators Plead With Biden for Quick End to Solar Trade Probe
https://www.bloombergquint.com/amp/global-economics/senators-plead-with-biden-for-quick-end-to-solar-trade-probe
MAY 2, 2022
“..
Bloomberg) -- Nearly two dozen senators on Monday implored President Joe Biden to swiftly advance a trade probe that they said was already causing “massive disruption” in the U.S. solar industry.

The investigation into whether Chinese companies are circumventing decade-old tariffs by assembling solar cells and modules in Southeast Asia “will severely harm” American businesses and workers “as long as it continues,” the 22 senators said in a letter to Biden.

The group, led by Democrats Jacky Rosen of Nevada, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, asked the Biden administration to quickly make a preliminary determination on the matter, rather than waiting until an Aug. 30 deadline to issue its initial findings. That could limit the domestic impact from the investigation and neuter the threat of retroactive tariffs on panels imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, which represent some 80% of imported supply in the U.S.
..”
Stabukk
02.05.2022 kl 12:52 5291

Dette senator-utspillet er helt forståelig og på sin plass! Solkraft öker stadig i USA, og for langvarig "Trade probe" kan bremse utbyggingen av solparker.
Heldigvis er ca. halvparten av statene i USA kraftig fokusert på solkraft/fornybar energi, inkludert Washington. Og der er Rec og deres störste eier Hanwha kraftig på offensiven. Heldigvis. Og selv uten börsmeldinger ser det ut for at vi får en videre oppgang i kursen også i dag.
manman01
02.05.2022 kl 13:17 5026

Selvfølgelig er det forståeligt. Det er mange jobs der er på spil. Men det er også mange manufacturing jobs der bliver forhindret i at blive etableret i US, når markedet angiveligt bliver dumpet med billige paneler. Det er lige at få hele billedet med. Mange jobs ville jo stadig eksistere, såfremt værdikæden i US bliver bygget ud.

Men så længe denne hænger over hovedet på importørerne, vil der ikke blive importeret fra disse 4 lande. Det ser vi tydeligt. Er det fordi de er skyldige, eller fordi de ikke ved om de er skyldige i at dumpe billige paneler på markedet?

Jeg ser frem til svaret. Uanset vil det værste udfald være, at vi returnerer til status quo. At ramme klimamål.
manman01
05.05.2022 kl 12:35 4511

New Commerce memo suggests acceleration of solar panel probe - report
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3832584-new-commerce-memo-suggests-acceleration-of-solar-panel-probe-report
MAY 4, 2022
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The DoC circulated a memo this week soliciting additional comment from interested parties and specifying that "[silicon] wafers produced outside of China with polysilicon sourced from China are not subject to these circumvention inquiries," according to the report.

"Commerce is accelerating in the sense that they're asking questions from a timeline perspective that normally come much later," an industry source told the Examiner, adding the memo will be seen as a win for the companies that manufacture their wafers outside of China but not necessarily by others.

The CEO of the American Clean Power Association said the filings "clearly refute the strained assertion that solar panels coming from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam" are circumventing duties on Chinese imports.
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manman01
05.05.2022 kl 12:40 4475

Ser ud til at vi nok kan forvente en afgørelse på denne før august - spændende.
manman01
06.05.2022 kl 13:36 4288

Commerce Department Investigation Into Solar Imports Must Move Forward — and Not Be Rushed
https://www.americanmanufacturing.org/blog/commerce-department-investigation-into-solar-imports-must-move-forward-and-not-be-rushed/
MAY 5, 2022
manman01
06.05.2022 kl 21:18 4048

Anti-dumping threat throws US solar industry into turmoil
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/anti-dumping-threat-throws-us-solar-industry-into-turmoil/
MAY 6, 2022
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Wood Mackenzie has not yet fully assessed the likely impact on US solar installations. Before the investigation was launched, we already expected a slight slowdown, from 23.6 gigawatts installed in 2021 to about 22 GW this year, in part because of difficulties in the supply chain leading to rising costs. Sun expects the investigation to have a “significant” negative impact on that outlook.

The seriousness of the situation for the administration as it attempts to cut US greenhouse gas emissions was underlined this week by the Indiana-based utility group NiSource, which warned that “most solar projects originally scheduled for completion in 2022 and 2023 will experience delays of approximately 6 to 18 months.” Because of those delays, the company has had to put back the planned retirement of its Schahfer coal-fired power plant from 2023 to 2025. Other companies have similarly been talking about having to keep fossil fuel plants running for longer.

Concerned about the “massive disruption” being caused in the US solar industry, a bipartisan group of 22 senators wrote a letter to President Biden over the weekend, urging the administration to “swiftly review the case and make an expedited preliminary determination”. Imposing new duties could push up energy costs for consumers, undercut the growth of the US solar industry, and cost tens of thousands of jobs, the senators argued. But they suggested the biggest issue was the uncertainty, and “the longer this situation persists, the more acute the damage will be.”

There are other possible policies that could support US solar manufacturing without having such damaging effects on developers. The Solar Energy Manufacturing Act, passed in the House last year, would provide additional tax credits for manufacturers in the US. But it is unclear whether those provisions will be able to win sufficient support in the Senate, in particular from the influential Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, to pass into law.

His lack of a clear majority in Congress has severely restricted President Biden’s ability to make progress on his energy and climate agenda. Like President Barack Obama, he is being pushed towards using executive actions and regulations to implement his policies, because legislative routes are very difficult if not closed off altogether. The tools that are available often come with significant drawbacks, and the anti-dumping investigation is a case in point.
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manman01
13.05.2022 kl 00:15 3666

Secretary of Commerce may have underrepresented history of solar tariff rates before Senate
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/05/12/secretary-of-commerce-falsely-represented-record-of-solar-tariffs-before-senate/
MAY 12, 2022
“..
“I am in no way predetermining what this will be, if it will be anything, but the 200% is an extreme case and not fitting with the precedent that we’ve had,” said Raimondo. pv magazine will follow up with Commerce to determine if the Secretary was referring to the past 150 antidumping cases in general, or if this figure was referring specifically to the solar industry.

However, records in the Federal Register show that tariff rates have often come in much higher than 10% to 12%. Dating back to 2012, solar tariffs on Chinese antidumping have ranged from less than 1% to over 100%. In 2017-2018, major suppliers Trina Solar were 92.5%, Risen Energy 100.79%, Canadian Solar 95.5%, Jinko Solar 95.5%. Suppliers that were fully in compliance with the seventh antidumping case paid 0% in tariffs

..

“I’ve heard from many of you, and many in the industry, and I share the sense of urgency,” said the Secretary. However, Raimondo distanced herself from the initial fact-finding process spurred by the petition, saying she was “not involved” and that she was unable to speak in detail about the process.
..”
Redigert 13.05.2022 kl 00:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
13.05.2022 kl 12:04 3312

Secretary Raimondo Exposes SEIA's Big Lie on Solar Tariff Rates
https://prosperousamerica.org/secretary-raimondo-exposes-seias-big-lie-on-solar-tariff-rates/
MAY 12, 2022
“..
In a scathing report released today, The American Prospect exposed SEIA as failing to “disclose that among its leading members are the same Chinese-owned companies that are implicated not only in the investigation of illegal tariff evasion, but in the use of slave labor to produce solar components and coal-fired energy to power the factories.” Additionally, The American Prospect unmasked that SEIA’s “main strategy for the past ten years has been to lament restrictions on Chinese solar production.”
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manman01
13.05.2022 kl 21:35 2938

Commerce chooses 8 solar manufacturers for deeper examination in AD/CVD circumvention investigation
https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2022/05/commerce-chooses-8-solar-manufacturers-for-deeper-examination-in-ad-cvd-circumvention-investigation/
MAY 13, 2022
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The Dept. of Commerce has released the names of the mandatory respondents in the AD/CVD circumvention investigation currently happening in the solar industry.

The department, which is looking at solar cell and panel manufacturers in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam that use components from China and whether the companies are circumventing Chinese tariffs in the process, sent out questionnaires in early April looking for export details. Seventy-six questionnaires were issued (Cambodia: 12, Malaysia: 20, Thailand: 18, Vietnam: 26) and two companies from each country will be investigated further. Commerce chose these specific companies due to their high quantity of exports to the United States.

The companies chosen include:

Cambodia: BYD and New East Solar
Malaysia: Hanwha Q CELLS and JinkoSolar
Thailand: Canadian Solar and Trina Solar
Vietnam: Boviet Solar and Vina Solar Technology (LONGi)

Commerce said that since there are a “large number of exporters or producers” in each of the affected countries, it would “not be practicable to individually examine each of them to determine whether each one is circumventing the Orders. Examining all of these exporters/producers would require significant resources.”

DOC will now do a deep-dive into the manufacturing and exporting processes at these eight companies. The department will look into whether any Chinese wafers, silane, silver paste, solar glass, aluminum frames, junction boxes, EVA sheets and backsheets were used in exported cells and modules, and whether the eight companies have direct relationships with Chinese manufacturers that would allude to attempts at AD/CVD circumvention.
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Redigert 13.05.2022 kl 21:36 Du må logge inn for å svare
grabein
13.05.2022 kl 21:49 2830

Hmm, får håpe Hanwha kommer greit ut av proben, da.
Stabukk
13.05.2022 kl 21:55 2770

Min engelsk-kunnskap strekker ikke helt til, men muligens vil Google Translate hjelpe meg til å forstå hvordan «Big Lie» og uenigheten omkring dette tema vil eller kan påvirke Rec og Hanwha/Q-cells. Skjønner det kan bety stopp i import der bruk av tvangsarbeid påvises. Tror dette kan ta tid og kanskje innebære rettstvister.
Men mindre import vil vel i alle fall Rec kunne dra nytte av ved å få i gang Moses Lake anlegget snarest. Og Q-Cells kan vel en periode få solgt færre solpaneler, av hvilke de ikke selv produserer i USA (men importerer). Men inntil videre er jeg litt på bar bakke hva gælder innholdet i dagens meldinger.
harlin
13.05.2022 kl 22:14 2647

Dette vil utelukkende være en fordel for Rec, også om Hanwha får anmerkninger i saken. Løsningen på alle disse problemene vil være produksjon i ML. Punktum.
Stabukk
13.05.2022 kl 22:21 2592

Takker for kort og beroligende svar, harlin.
ML kan vel starte opp med en viss produksjon alt fra årsskiftet, hviss dette gir bedre økonomi enn å stå stille?

Hvilken fabrikk skal ML levere til ved årsskiftet tenker du?
harlin
13.05.2022 kl 22:48 2424

Hovedpoenget er at sakene som Hanwha potensielt kan bli anklaget for (altså produksjon direkte eller indirekte knyttet til Kina og forholdene der) vil underbygge viktigheten av å flytte mest mulig av produksjonen til vestlige land, og da spesielt til Rec. Hanwha må komme med mer konkrete planer, men uansett så er det ikke mer enn tiden og veien hvis Hanwha skal ha noe som helst klart i H2 2023. Det må rett og slett komme noe formelt snart, og jeg tror ikke de har tid til å vente på SEMA, selv om det er dette som settes som et vilkår inntil videre.
Stabukk
14.05.2022 kl 12:02 1778

Nei, ser det poenget. Kundar i ML er vel ikkje klar til å ta i mot för seinare i 2023.
Og Rec har vel ingen andre dei kan levera til frå ML?

SE annen tråd: Der det opplyses at Hanwha ikke setter i gang sin egen polysiliconproduksjon i Korea. Derfor kan REC godt bli leverandør alt fra tidlig 2023.
Redigert 14.05.2022 kl 12:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sudoku
14.05.2022 kl 12:24 1674

Kanskje de kan «starte motoren», og produsere noe for lager - som en start - så lenge de vet de har kunder som skal ha disse varene litt senere. En buffer hos Rec, og/eller hos kundene er sikkert mulig i en oppstartsfase. (Bare en tanke…;)
Stabukk
14.05.2022 kl 12:36 1624

Var også inne på tanken om produksjon for lager. Veit nokon om Hanwha produserer wafer i Korea?
Hanwha skal utvida sin panel-kapasitet i Korea. Kanskje med wafer som har polysil frå Moses Lake?
Blir veldig mykje spekulasjonar dette, men husk Hanwha si melding: "help Rec jumpstart" nettopp ML.

Tror nok ikke ML kommer til å levere poly til HS sin produksjon i Sør Korea, da de nettop signerte 10 års kontrakt for leveranse der.

https://m.pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2022&no=381848

Tror heller det vil komme åpninger for produksjon av wafer i US.
Ordner seg dette.
Redigert 14.05.2022 kl 13:51 Du må logge inn for å svare
harlin
14.05.2022 kl 14:24 1356

Om Rec beslutter å starte fabrikken nå så vil de uansett ikke være klar for fullskalaproduksjon før i 2023. Tar tid å få slike anlegg på beina igjen etter konservering siden 2018/2019. Derfor ikke mer enn tiden og veien til å stå klar til neste sommer om de beslutter å starte NÅ

Med forbehold om at du har inngående kunnskap om polysilicon-fabrikker - hva slags insider-viten har du om hva som skal til for å restarte fabrikken? Og i hvilken stand de har holdt den? At du UTEN den type informasjon skal være i stand til å vite om de trenger 7 eller 11 måneder til oppstart regner jeg for usannsynlig.