Brødrene Fai og Thomas sin død, pensjonering eller salg av aksjene sine er verdt mer enn 100 millioner dollar for minoritetsaksjonærene.

Der er 3 ting som kan ødelegge for dem.
1: Dersom du har tilgang til 3 milliarder kroner så kan du kjøpe opp 10% av aksjene og gi et kjøp eller selg tilbud til hovedeier.
Hovedeier kan da enten selge seg ned til 30% andel eller kjøpe alle aksjonørene ut. Såkalt fientlig oppkjøp.

2. LO, NHO og Tangen kan få støtte av regjeringen til å begrense lederlønningene. Det kan argumenteres med at dette vil gi et skatteøkning til staten uten at satsene settes opp.

3. Vi kan være heldige og brødrene pensjonerer seg uten en arvtaker.

Slik lovene er i dag så trenger en aksjonær bare 50% eierskap i et selskap for å få 100% av verdiskapningen i et selskap.

Det er helt tydelig at Fai og Thomas (NG-brødre) tar ut solide kompensasjoner. For å være fair skal det sies at ca 25% av de summene du viser, er styrehonorar, bonuser og pensjonstilskudd. Grunnlønnen er imidlertid høy for et så lite selskap som Jinhui har blitt siden glansdagene rundt 2012-13.
Som storeiere har de ikke vært villige til å gå ned i reallønn da de mer enn halverte flåten , i kriseårene etter 2014-2015.
Kanskje ikke så rart , idet dette er et selskap de selv stiftet, utviklet og har driftet i ca 30 år.
Fortsatt kontrollerer de( familien) vel mer enn 60% av selskapet.
Det nytter ikke å klage på disse forholdene.
Du må ta det som en av mange faktorer som avgjør hvor mye du er villig til å betale for aksjene i selskapet.
Går det veldig bra , betyr det ganske lite. I dårlige tider ; ganske mye.

Har skrevet litt om det før, og det har også media gjort, men her er en detaljert oversikt over lønningene til de best betalte i Jinhui, alle tall er hentet fra Jinhuis årsrapporter på Newsweb.

Fra og med 2015 har disse tatt ut ca. 620 millioner kroner i lønn. Det er faktisk sykt, og jeg tror det er hovedforklaringen på at aksjekursen i JIN ligger der den ligger. Og det er all grunn til å tro at dette vil fortsette i årene som kommer. For hvert av årene 2021 og 2022 var lønn og bonuser til de fire best betalte lederne på ca. 100 millioner kroner, der de to best betalte stakk av med ca. 95 millioner kroner.

I dårlige år bidrar disse lønnskostnadene til at underskuddene blir mye høyere enn de ellers ville vært.
I gode år bidrar de til at overskuddene blir en god del lavere enn ved "normale" lederlønninger.

Jinhui Shipping Salaries USD Salaries USD Salaries USD Salaries USD Salaries USD
Årstall Ng Siu Fai Ng Kam Wah Thomas Ng Ki Hung Frankie Ho Suk Lin Cathy
2022 4 966 000 4 023 000 300 000 274 000 9 563 000
2021 4 967 000 4 022 000 300 000 261 000 9 550 000
2020 4 325 000 3 510 000 300 000 251 000 8 386 000
2019 4 485 000 3 638 000 300 000 258 000 8 681 000
2018 3 414 000 3 414 000 300 000 254 000 7 382 000
2017 1 947 000 1 947 000 300 000 256 000 4 450 000
2016 2 450 000 2 450 000 300 000 257 000 5 457 000
2015 3 383 000 3 383 000 337 000 292 000 7 395 000
2015-2022 29 937 000 26 387 000 2 437 000 2 103 000 60 864 000

Det er relevant å:
1) Beregne hvor stor del lønnskostnadene utgjør av overskuddene gjennom en lengre tidsperiode.
2) Sammenligne lederlønningene med lederlønninger i selskap av tilsvarende størrelse og bransje.
3) Sammenligne lederlønningene med hvor mye som har blitt betalt i utbytte i tilsvarende periode.

Jeg vil tro at resultatene på hver enkelt undersøkelse vil være nedslående, og bidra til å vise hvordan de to eierne tapper ut verdiskaping, og potensielle utbytter og ytterligere verdiskaping i selskapet.

Gårsdagens rateoppdatering, ikke så lystig om dagen, men dette er vel i stor grad årlige sesongvariasjoner.

the panamax index, tracking ships carrying coal or grain weighing 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, extended its losing streak into a 9th session, falling 4.6% to 1,464 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index eased for the 20th consecutive session, shedding 27 points to 1,135 points.

oppdateringen for 11. januar:

the panamax index, tracking ships carrying coal or grain weighing 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, extended its losing streak into a 10th day, falling 2.9% to its lowest since mid-August at 1,421 points. "Thermal coal demand in Asia remains subdued. Additionally, the South American grain export season has yet to start. These factors have contributed to the weakening of the panamax market as expected," shipbroker Fearnleys wrote in a weekly note. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index was down for the 21st consecutive session, shedding 27 points to 1,108 points.

Capesize falt 10% i går, så fallet er vesentlig større der.

Ratene har sunket en hel del den siste tiden for panamax og supramax skip. Siste oppdatering fra i går:

the panamax index, tracking ships carrying coal or grain weighing 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, was down for the 8th straight session, declining 4.4% to a two-month low of 1,534 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index decreased for the 19th consecutive session, shedding 32 points at 1,162 points.

Baltic Dry-indeksen er ned 0,10 prosent til 2.091 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange. BCI (der Jinhui ikke driver virksomhet) er imidlertid opp 2,4 %.

Dagens oppdatering for Panamax og Supramax:

The panamax index, tracking ships carrying coal or grain weighing 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, declined 3.4% to its lowest since November 16th at 1,808 points; and the supramax index eased for the 15th day, hitting a more than five-week low of 1,271 points.

Finnbergåsen eiendom har kjøpt seg opp med 888,709 aksjer. Bak selskapet står Eirik Nødset. Han har jobbet som rådgiver innen risiko-analyse i SAS. Han er utdannet siviløkonom med Høyere avdelings studium fra Handelshøyskolen i Bergen. Han har erfaring fra en rekke prosjekter innen Risk management og business consulting, både i finans og andre sektorer.
Idag driver han eget konsultasjons firma og investerer i eiendom med utleie.

Baltic Dry-indeksen er ned 0,05 prosent til 2.093 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange.

Dagens oppdatering:

The panamax index, tracking ships carrying coal or grain weighing 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, fell 1.9% to 1,872 points. The supramax index saw a 61-point drop to 1,308 points, its 14th consecutive session of losses.

Økningen ser ut til å være litt redusert til 12-13%. Dette minner meg om blaffet da den gikk til over 7 kroner for så å dabbe av. Dersom der kommer et forsøk på oppkjøp så hadde nok effekten vert langt større. Dette er nok bare en småaksjonær som ville ha noen aksjer før rateene på frakt kanskje stiger.

Jinhui opp 19,51 % i dag, det var litt av en start på det nye året.

Fra Fearnley pulse uke 2
Panamax
The Panamax market has shown mixed signals over the past week, with a correction due to abundant available tonnage and limited inquiries. Freight rates from the Continent to the Far East remained stable at USD 39/tonne. Since July, the Panama Canal's reduced transit capacity to 32 daily transits (regular daily transit is between 38 and 40) has significantly influenced the market. Additionally, the market in the Pacific was subdued, with limited fresh inquiry from Asia, notably from Indonesia and NoPac, affecting rates and demand. This overall decline in demand and the continuous decrease in Panamax ballasters highlight the current challenges with a simultaneous decline in supply and demand. This can lead to a more balanced or stagnant market rather than a clear benefit to owners or charterers.
Supramax
A lot more activity on the Indian Ocean and the Pacific side last week prior holiday season with more cargo orders flowing in. Hearing WC India-China Supra voyages being fixed at last done levels. The usual Indonesia-India trips being fixed around 10k levels. ECSA-Far East Supra trips being fixed around 23k levels. With the coal & grain season coming to an end, we can expect to see a seasonal slowdown in the coming weeks. Position lists still have plenty on offer, especially in the Pacific, but even here rates are holding well – however, people are happy, or resigned, to pay what it says on the ticket. As we near the end of the holiday season, we can expect more activity in the coming week.

Det nærmer seg raskt nyttår, og tid for litt oppsummering og tanker inn i det nye året. Jin har falt en god del i år, der toppnotering var rundt 9,50 kr, og bunnoteringen rundt 5,50, og i den seneste tiden har aksjen lagt mellom 5,70-6,40. På kurs 5,85 prises JIN til 639 MNOK mens bokførte verdi av egenkapitalen er ca. 3,91 milliarder kroner.

JIN har levert noe underskudd i de ulike kvartalene, og ratene var særlig i deler av sommeren ganske så lave. Verdiene i skipene til JIN har trolig falt noe gjennom året, men kan ha tatt seg opp i siste delen av året slik at de kanskje ikke er langt fra verdien ved inngangen av året. 4Q kan kanskje forventes å gå noenlunde i balanse, med Panamaxen i drift og bedre rater for Supramaxene. Kanskje et mindre overskudd.

Fra midten av september har ratene for supramax lagt mellom 1100-1550, men der det har vært store regionale forskjeller. Hvilken miks JIN har hatt på oppdragene sine de siste månedene er ukjent, men det er vel å anta at mye har vært i og rundt østen.

Jin er et merkelig selskap, kan godt hende ordet merkelig egentlig er betegnende. Mens andre bulkselskaper på OSE er priset ganske friskt (Gogl, 2020 Bulkers, Belships) er JIN priset svært lavt i forhold til faktiske verdier. Det er ingen tvil om at de faktiske verdiene er veldig høye, da hoveddelen av verdiene er skipene Jin eier, verdipapirer og bygg. Likevel er markedet i dagens situasjon ikke villig til å prise aksjen særlig høyt, av gode grunner, ettersom ledelsen tar ut store verdier hvert år i form av lønninger. Dette svir ekstra mye når det er dårlige tider i bulk med lave rater, mens verdiene øker når det er høye rater.

Ledelsen i Jin drar på årene, og det er kanskje mer relevant enn tidligere om det kommer til å skje endringer. Mr. Ng Siu Fai får jeg opp er 66 år, Mr. Ng Kam Wah Thomas får jeg opp er 60 år og Mr. Ng Ki Hung Frankie 69 år. Det ville vært svært positivt om ledelsen med sine lønninger hadde gått av og blitt erstattet med en helt normal ledelse med normale lønninger for denne typen selskap og posisjoner.

Så hva kan JIN da oppfattes å kunne gi for en investor i dagens situasjon og med dagens prising?
1. Det kan være et håp om at ledelsen går av, ref. det jeg nevner over.
2. Et håp om høye rater i 2024, eller kanskje særlig i 2025, da tilførslene av nye båter vil være lave.
3. Et håp om at selskapet blir oppløst og verdiene delt ut til aksjonærene, det vil være en stor opptur både for aksjonærene som kontrollerer selskapet og andre.
4. Et håp om at selskapet slår seg sammen med et annet bulkselskap og at verdiene dermed kommer fram, ref. et mulig ønske fra dagens ledelse om å få et roligere liv.

Oppsummert, det er mye håp, men inngangen for dette håpet er 16% eller rundt der av bokførte verdier, så det er nok trolig at nedsiden er liten. Uansett har en håpet med seg og potensielt store verdier.

Lengre artikkel om tørrbulkmarkedet på Hellenic: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/significant-increase-in-capesize-tonne-days-from-brazil-to-china-since-the-beginning-of-december/

This insight was provided in a comprehensive report on the annual Central Economic Work Conference held from December 11-12, where top leaders delineated economic objectives for the upcoming year.

22.12: Baltic Dry indeksen er opp for første gang på noen dager: Baltic Dry-indeksen er opp 0,34 prosent til 2.094 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange. Fin stigning i GOGL i dag, opp vel 3 prosent til 99 kr.

Lang artikkel om at Brasil har tatt over som den største eksportøren av korn til Kina. Det betyr lange frakter for bulkskip.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/brazil-overtakes-u-s-as-chinas-top-corn-supplier-extends-soy-lead/

Dagens oppdatering av tørrlastrater: the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, decreased 0.3% to 1,909 points, close to one-month lows; and the supramax index eased 9 points to an over three-week low of 1,369 points.

Fearnleys oppsummering av utviklingen i de tre tørrbulksegmentene siste uke: Forholdsvis flatt.

Capesize
We see volumes holding consistent with enquiries from miners and operators on C5 for early January dates. On the East Australia coal and Pacific front, volumes have increased slightly from previous week albeit scarce. On South Africa and Indian business, we see limited enquiries primarily for mid-January stems. On C3 ex Brazil to China and West Africa, we see enquiries for full January with a heavy focus on mid-January. Far East tonnage is moderately tight. Ballasting tonnage is increasing and weights heavily on mid-January onwards. On C5, activity level is healthy with fixtures concluding at low to mid USD 12 levels by midweek. On C3, we see fixtures concluding at USD 24 levels for early January and resistance between offers and bids for mid to late January.

Panamax
This week's Panamax market shows a general downtrend due to the off-season for coal and grain shipments, and uncertainties in soybean exports. Minor uplifts may arise from China's cold weather and slight recoveries in grain shipments. The North Atlantic remains quiet with limited cargo, while the Pacific faces challenges with an oversupply of ships. The Atlantic shows modest improvements in rates, especially for deferred positions, but overall market corrections are evident due to an excess of available tonnage and limited demand.

Supramax
Positions seems to be covered ahead of holidays approaching therefor market been rather flat with bear action both in the Atlantic and the Pacific. There were fixtures done at below last done in USG while ECSA seemed to still hold up due to some tight laycans and lack of tonnage for those dates. Bit more cargo flows from NoPac otherwise flat in the East as well. All eyes on Red Sea situation and how that would eventually start impacting the market going further.

Og gårsdagens rateoppdatering: the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, snapped its three-session winning streak, falling 0.1% to 1,915 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index was down 19 points at 1.378 points.

Time charter rater for Supra/Ultramax er stabile siste uka og ligger for de fleste ruter i området 12500-14000 dollar.

Siste fra Hellenic om utvikling av skipsverdier for Ultramax/Panamax

Panamax BC Glory Amsterdam (77,700 DWT, Apr 2006, Oshima) sold unknown Chinese buyers for USD 11.50 mil, VV Value USD 11.92 mil

Ultramax BC Unity Endeavour (61,600 DWT, Aug 2014, Nantong COSCO) sold inc. TC to undisclosed buyers for USD 23 mil, VV Value USD 22.41 mil

Handy BC Adventure (33,800 DWT, Jan 2011, Samjin) sold to Costamare for USD 11.4 mil, VV Value USD 10.77 mil

Oppsummering uka som var i panamax og ultramax/supramax sektoren. En del detaljer, men det er mange tegn til sunne rater.

Panamax
The beginning of the week saw a slight correction across most areas with a good amount of fresh tonnage and limited enquiry seeing rates slip further. The North Atlantic lacked fresh impetus, although as the week progressed there remained demand from the South Atlantic and some saw a tightness of tonnage supply for January dates, which helped maintain a fairly even level. An 80,000-dwt open India fixed a trip via EC South America for a trip to Singapore – Japan at $14,000, while an 81,000-dwt fixed a front haul basis delivery Gibraltar trip via US Gulf redelivery Singapore-Japan at $29,000. From Asia, little excitement as limited fresh enquiry from Indonesia and NoPac came into play. A 74,000-dwt open China fixed a trip via Indonesia redelivery Japan at $15,000. Period action was limited, although an 82,000-dwt open Singapore fixed 6/8 months trading redelivery worldwide at $17,000.

Ultramax/Supramax

A rather positional week ensued for the sector, but overall sentiment remained rather poor. In the Atlantic, slower demand from key areas such as the US Gulf saw rates slip from the recent highs while in the South Americas, a relatively tight tonnage supply saw rates maintain their levels. From Asia, little fresh enquiry appeared in the north and NoPac regions, which saw some tonnage ballast towards South Asia where cargo enquiry remained steady, but rates generally remained flat. Period activity slowed, with a 61,000-dwt coming open worldwide in February-March 2024 was heard fixed for 13-16 months trading at 120% of BSI. In the Atlantic, a 63,500-dwt was heard fixed delivery West Africa for a trip to China at $32,000 with nickel ore. From Asia, a 63,000-dwt open China fixed an Australian round redelivery Singapore-Japan at $12,00. From the Indian Ocean, a 63,000-dwt fixed delivery South Africa for a trip to India-Bangladesh at $23,000 plus $250,000 ballast bonus.

Dagens rateoppdatering:

the supramax index fell by 0.5% to 1,419 points. Conversely, the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, rose 0.3% to 1,906 points, its first increase in two weeks.

Meanwhile, freight rates are expected to rise due to disruptions in Red Sea routes caused by multiple attacks from Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi movement in recent weeks. The threats to carriers around Egypt’s Suez Canal may pressure freight rates from Asia to Europe or to the United States East Coast as ships take alternative, longer routes," said Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Lee Klaskow.

Perioden med bedre rater i supramax segmentet har nå beveget seg inn i fjerde måned. Supramax indeksen passerte 1100 den 11. september og har beveget seg mellom 1100 og vel 1500 siden.

Det er å håpe at de tre siste månedene blir forholdsvis bra for Jinhui, og med gode utsikter for 2024.

Fearnleys beskrivelse av utviklingen for Panamax og Ultramax i uka som var:

Panamax
The Panamax market is experiencing diverse trends. In the North Atlantic, a surplus of vessels has led to a softer market, giving charterers the upper hand to negotiate lower rates and favorable terms. This scenario contrasts with the South Atlantic, which is performing well due to increased activity and higher rates driven by regional demands. In Asia, the market is mixed with pressures on Indonesian coal routes, yet there's potential for growth in the southern regions. Overall, the market is cautious, shaped by regional disparities in supply and demand.

Supramax
Strong Atlantic market keeps positive trend though the number of ballaster continues to increase. Fronthaul in USG on Ultra was fixed for a trip to India with Petcoke above USD 60,000 pd and about USD 50,000 pd for clean cargo to the Far East with a long duration. Trips across the Atlantic were paying in the region USD 50,000 pd for the trip with coal to Continent and low USD 30,000 pd for grain cargoes with longer duration. All other markets in the Atlantic, including ECSA, Black Sea, and Continent, have good demand, and rates are firm. Fronthaul on Ultramax delivery Brazil was fixed at USD 17,500 pd + 750,000 GBB to China. In Far East, though, we had a very short life of a good market before it started to soften again. Rates fall by USD 2,000-3,000 pd on most of the Pacific routes. Nopac RV with grain was fixed at USD 13,000 compared to the fixture, which was reported a week ago at USD 17,000. The same Indonesia-China RV is now fixed at USD 10,000 pd compared to USD 13,000 pd from last week.

dagens rateutvikling: and the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, slid 2% to its lowest since mid-November at 1,915 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index fell 1.4% to a two-week low of 1,442 points.

Videre: Uendrede timecharter rater siste uke for ultra/supra max etter det jeg kan se.

Deler av artikkel om reduksjon i antall båter som får gå gjennom panamakanalen. Hele ligger her: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/delays-in-transiting-the-panama-canal/

Hvor stor effekt dette vil få, sammen med andre faktorer, er usikkert.

Delays in transiting the Panama Canal
in Dry Bulk Market,Marine Insurance P&I Club News 13/12/2023

Due to a record-breaking lack of rain, the Panama Canal Authority has significantly reduced the number of vessels transiting the Canal. This in order to conserve water and hopefully avoid having to reduce the maximum allowable transit draft for vessels. The reduction to 22 (from about 34-36) vessels per day will remain in effect until 1 February 2024 when it will be reduced to 18 vessels per day.
The Authority has advised that vessels without bookings may face “indefinite delays”.

Dagens rateoppdatering: JIN har nok hatt den innleide panamaxen i virksomhet over en lengre periode nå, vil tro 4Q kommer til å vise en meget god økning i omsetningen.

Meanwhile, the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, fell by 2.6% to a three-week low of 1,996 points; and the supramax index decreased by 1.7% to 1,480 points.

Artikkel på Hellenic om det sterkere tørrbulkmarkedet:

Dry Bulk Rates Could Remain Higher for Longer
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 12/12/2023

The dry bulk market could remain in higher ground for longer, despite the recent rate correction. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal said that “over recent weeks, there has been a significant increase in earnings for dry bulk cargo transport across all sectors, with particular attention on Capesize earnings, which have exceeded $50,000 per day.

Accordingo to Intermodal’s Mr. Fotis Kanatas, Research Analyst, “one factor contributing to the rise, is the limitations being implemented on the Panama Canal. The limitations were announced in late October and will take effect in their final form in February 2024. Specifically, the Panama Canal Authority will gradually decrease daily transits until February, when only 18 vessels per day will be permitted, as an attempt to address low water levels. The congestion triggered has already affected bulkers, with the number of daily transits sitting at a 2023 low, indicating that owners have already started using alternatives. Consequently, cargo vessels facilitating the trade of agricultural products between the US Gulf or the ECSA and Asia are affected and forced to travel through the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope. This leads to a surge in tonne miles and an uptick in earnings”.

“Taking a look at the volumes of the trade, it is clear that the agricultural flows (corn, soybean, wheat and sugar) stand strong, and their trade has grown steadily during the last five years, with 2022 and 2023 being particularly strong. The main driver as the data suggests is imports from China, for all agricultural products, being by far the biggest importer, while the biggest exporter is Brazil, with the vast majority being soybean and corn, followed by Argentina and the United States. For instance, November was the strongest month in 5 years in terms of Chinese grain imports and also falls outside the traditional seasonal pattern. , as they imported a total of 13,544kt Freight rates underpin the story, with P7, tracking shipments from the USG to Qingdao, leaping 35% while P8, tracking shipments from Brazil to China, has surged almost 30% year-to-date”, Kanatas added.

Meanwhile, “another factor that also supported freight rates in the region is congestion in the biggest export ports of Brazil. This development came after Brazil had record production of soybean, corn and sugar, combined with historical low soybean production in Argentina, owned to draught in the country, which in turn, put more pressure in Brazil and therefore its ports to handle most of the trade, resulting in higher congestion which intensified after summer and peaked in October”.

Intermodal’s analyst concluded that “mid-size bulk carriers have experienced a volatile 2023 so far and the last few weeks have undoubtedly been extremely good for shipowners. Should the long congestion in the ECSA export ports continue and the Panama situation not be resolved, rates could remain elevated as demand for tonnage to export the bumper harvests is expected to remain strong”.

Beskrivelse av Hellenic av markedsutviklingen for panamax og supramax siste uke:

Panamax

It proved to be a tumultuous week in the Panamax market, with the stronger optimism seen last week carrying over to the early part of this week, although this dramatically eroded away with the week ending on a far weaker tone. In the Atlantic, short front-haul trips ex US East Coast to India contracted throughout, with $38,000, and $26,500 reported fixed on this run, albeit on two contrasting types, providing a good indicator of the market trend on all routes. Asia also saw further erosion in rates despite solid levels of demand in most loading origins, but the weaker sentiment emanating from the Atlantic basin impacted confidence here as well, with tonnage count slowly building. About $21,000 concluded early on an 82,000-dwt delivery China for a NoPac round trip, with deals for similar trips now concluding at closer to $18,500 as momentum switched back firmly in charterers favour.

Ultramax/Supramax

A rather patchy week after the recent strength in the sector as the week saw a change in direction. That said, it was described as positional. In the Atlantic, rates remained healthy with a good amount or fresh enquiry in the north, although South Atlantic demand slowed as the week ended. In Asia, similarly the recent positive sentiment wavered, brokers saying that enquiry levels had eased across the region. In the Indian Ocean, enquiry levels remained fairly healthy and the market was seen as finely balanced. Period activity was limited but a 63,000-dwt open Philippines fixed a short period at around $16,000. In the Atlantic, a 63,000-dwt was heard fixed in the mid $17,000s plus mid $700,000s ballast bonus basis delivery Santos for a fronthaul. Whilst a 56,000-dwt fixed a trip from Spain to the US East Coast at $18,000. From Asia, a 58,000-dwt open Malaysia fixed a trip via Indonesia redelivery China at $15,500. Further north, a 56,000-dwt fixed delivery mid-China for an Indonesian round voyage at $12,000.

Da skulle vi være godt oppdaterte:)

Tar også med denne oppdateringen om to andre tørrbulkselskaper:

Sparebank 1 Markets gjentar sin nøytralanbefaling på tørrbulkaksjer, men høyner kursmålet på Golden Ocean til 95 fra 80 og på 2020 Bulkers til 120 fra 100.
Det fremgår av en sektorrapport publisert mandag.

"Selv om vi er overrasket over styrken i spotprisene den siste tiden, ser vi fortsatt risiko knyttet til volumer av jernmalm og kull fremover. Vårt syn er at disse risikoene oppveier en støttende tilbudsside fremover. Når det er sagt har kinesiske importvolumer definitivt overrasket på oppsiden i år, og vi vil vurdere våre anbefalinger hvis denne styrken fortsetter", skriver meglerhuset.

Dagens rateoppdatering: Meanwhile, the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, fell 2.6% to its lowest since November 23rd at 2,049 points; and the supramax index decreased 15 points to 1,506 points.

Altså, fine rater for Supramax de siste dagene. Ratene har lagt over 1500 en ukes tid nå.

Gårsdagens rateoppdatering:

The panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, dropped 4.2% to 2,104 points; and the supramax index decreased 1.1% to 1,521 points.

ref. båten JIN leier inn: Her vil de vel tjene gode penger dersom ratene blir greie/gode, og dårlig dersom ratene blir svake. Balansemessig har dette lite å si, mens selskapet tar litt høyere markedsmessig risiko, noe som heller ikke gjør noen ting, både fordi utsiktene er ganske så gode der ratene fort kan skyte i været, og JIN har en lav markedsmessig risiko.

Jeg liker ledelsens kapital disiplin.

Dagens transaksjon med minimum 8,5 mill betaling over de neste 22 månendene, balanseres fint av salget av en gammel båt som ble solgt for 9,6 mii .
Den gamle båten var 18 år og på 53 tusen tonn- den nye er 2 år på 82 tusen tonn

Gårsdagens oppdatering på rater for Supramax og panamax:

the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, declined 4.9% to 2,197 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index fell 0.9% to 1,538 points.

Det nærmer seg nå å ha vært tre måneder med vesentlig høyere rater enn i vår/sommer. Ca. 10 september passerte supramaxindeksen 1100 og har holdt seg i intervallet 1100-1550 siden. Den siste tidens til dels elleville ferd spesielt for Capesize viser at det ikke er godt å vite hvordan ratene vil utvikle seg i månedene var.

Ukens beskrivelse av Supramax markedet fra Fearnley.

Supramax
Handy: The USG market remains firm. Furthermore, scarcity of tonnage is pushing rates higher and owners continue demanding premium. USG-Continent fixture reported at mid 26k levels. More activity seen in the ECSA market with multiple cargoes in market, however owners shy away from fronthaul biz with the market booming in Atlantic. On the Pacific side, we see the usual Indonesia-China run being fixed at mid 9k levels.

Supra/Ultra: With the boom in the USG-ECSA market, rates for a Supra doing ECSA-China run reported around USD 23k levels and the USG-Continent route paying upwards of USD 33k. The Pacific markets are also firming up with increased activity. The usual Indonesia-China runs paying USD 17k levels and the WC India-China route going upwards of USD 20k.

Overall, although we see a slight correction in the FFA market, physical market shows positive momentum which is expected to continue until the onset of holiday season. Given the continued scarcity of tonnages in the USG-Atlantic market, we expect the rate to remain stable in the region. As for the Pacific side, with the NOPAC grains season now we expect more activity and expect slight improvement in rates for the usual trade routes.

Dagens rater:

panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, fell about 0.7% to 2,425 points. Meanwhile, the supramax index added 39 points, or 2.6% to hit an over one-year high of 1,565 points.

Skipsverdier ser ut til å fortsette å stige både for Handymax, Supramax og Panamax: Hentet fra Hellenic 28. november: Jinhui har 23 egeneide skip og liten gjeld. Supramax skipet som refereres til under solgt ca. 11 % over VV verdsettelse.

"Panamax BC Nord Beluga (81,400 DWT, Apr 2015, Oshima) sold to unknown Greek buyers for USD 27.0 mil, VV Value USD 26.87 mil

Supramax BC Bulk Honduras (58,000 DWT, May 2012, Tsuneishi Cebu) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 19.50 mil, VV Value USD 17.5 mil

Handy BC Yangtze Pioneer (32,600 DWT, Jan 2011, Jiangmeng) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 10.9 mil, VV Value USD 10.0 mill"

Onsdagens rateoppdatering: "the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, declined 4.7% to 2,311 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index decreased 13 points, or 0.8% to 1,552 points. "Capesize rates are pulling back further as the spot market has gone somewhat quieter after a frantic period since mid-November. Rates in general remain strong but are on a softening trend. We view the backdrop as supportive to freight rates due to fundamentally healthier iron ore demand and seasonally stronger iron ore trade," Jefferies analysts wrote in a note."

Dagens rateoppdatering:

the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, increased 4.3% to 2,441 points, the highest since July 2022. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index advanced 2.5% to an over-one-year high of 1,526.

https://www.nrk.no/urix/flere-skip-angrepet-i-rodehavet-1.16663228

Skip i Rødehavet er under angrep fra Jemen. Dette gjør at turen gjennom suezkanalen også er en tur gjennom et krigsområde. Vanlige forsikringer gjelder ikke i krig. Det betyr at skip som skal gjennom suezkanalen må bytte til den litt dyrere krigsforsikringen. Dersom krigen blir hard så får du ikke forsikring overhodet.

Hvilken påvirkning på fraktratene kan en slik konflikt forårsake? Er det denne konflikten som er grunnen til at fraktratene har steget litt?

Dagens rateoppdatering for supramax og panamax:

the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, rose 5.5% to 2,341 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index advanced 4.5% to 1,489 points.

det er ikke meningen å skrive kryptiske meldinger, ei heller lage noen lang utredelse, men kort fortalt så er min påstand at en kineser aldri vil anerkjenne kritikk og/eller rette seg etter kritikk fra vestlige kilder, med mindre det er til egen vinning og fordel.

Nei, du får forklare nærmere den litt kryptiske meldingen?

Jeg ser for og motargumenter for JIN, og akkurat disse dager gjør den svært positive utviklingen i rater for bulkskip at det kan komme et plutselig løft i aksjekursen.

Kritikk fra utenforstående betyr null og niks for denne ledelsen, om du har kjennskap til mao's røde og mentaliteten til Kinesere og Hong Kong kinesere som sådan så vil du forstå.

Hvor mye av kritikken tror dere kommer tilbake til ledelsen i JIN og hvordan har de svart den ut?

Registrert lønn for nevnte er dessverre toppen av isfjellet på verdier som er unndratt gjennom variable verktøy eller rett og slett gamblet bort gjennom dårlige avtaler på valutasikring og annet. Det er gode grunner til den lave prising av aksjen, mener noen. Når det gjelder Freyr så har ledelsen opptrådd som fulle sjømenn, og grensen for akseptabel berikelse er for lengst passert i min bok, men ledelsen i Freyr kommer (enn så lenge) ikke til kvartfinalen engang målt mot ledelsen Jinhui, det er min subjektive mening. Men som du sier, så er aksjen lavt priset mot diverse referanser / konsensus i bransjen og det er helt sikkert mulig å tjene penger på kjøp og salg av JIN aksjen. Faktum er at skuffelsene for aksjonærene har stått i kø siste 15 årene, og jeg forstår ikke helt hvorfor dette plutselig skal endre seg.

To handymax skip sendt til skrap forrige uke, det er brukbart, det er i denne delen av markedet det finnes mange båter som blir erstattet av Ultramax.

https://shipandbunker.com/news/features/risk-management/277755-weekly-vessel-scrapping-report-2023-week-47

Hentet fra Gogl tråden, 12.11 i dag: "BCI opp nye 10,8% til $51 727 pr dag. 🚀🚀🚀""

Ulike forklaringer på økninger i ratene i bulkmarkedet. Hentet fra Hellenic.

"According to the shipbroker, “first of all, as we have previously reported, China’s government continues the efforts to boost its economy with liquidity injections, by accelerating the issuance of bonds, which is definitely a significant explanation for this rally. Beijing is increasing its pressure on banks to provide financial assistance to struggling real estate developers, while it is also targeting the world’s largest banks, urging them to extend more credit and guarantee that private developers are able to secure loans at the same rate as the industry average. During the past week we saw a rebound in property developer’s stocks. Despite not unveiling its restructuring plan, Country Garden shares have risen over 60% this month, while the stock of Evergrande also climbed over 10% within the same period. Furthermore, the expectations of increased investment in China’s urban development, as the latest government push comes in a bid to revive urban villages (projects built on rural lands) together with the fact that inventories of iron ore have sunk to their lowest level in seven years – have powered the iron price forecasts. Citi has set Iron price target at USD 140/tonne. This may also justify the launch of the Capesize market, as “thirst” for iron ore to fill the low inventories, increases China’s imports”.

Xclusiv added that “apart from China, another reason that may have driven that tremendous increase in the Capesize sector is the unprecedented traffic in South African ports. Nearly 100 vessels are waiting to berth in South African ports – as Transnet, the state-owned logistics company, struggles with breakdowns and bad weather. Due to unprecedented traffic, Transnet suspended on 20th November processing trucks carrying coal to Richards Bay, also affecting seaborne trade. South Africa is a leading iron ore and coal exporter, with its iron ore and coal shipments valued at USD 6.7 billion and USD 13 billion respectively for 2022.

Finally, Panama Canal’s major restrictions have positively affected the dry bulk market, as limited daily transits are limited to 18 vessels and almost all of them are container or gas carriers. Most other vessels are trying routes bypassing Panama canal and adding tonne-miles to the market. An MR tanker chartered by Glencore which was carrying fuel cargo, in order to avoid the delays at the Panama Canal, preferred to pass through the Strait of Maggelan, making a longer journey around the southern point of South America adding thousands of miles to its route. Some charterers instead of bypassing Panama canal, prefer to pay a premium for a priority spot, while the price of auctioned slots are nearly USD 4 mill”, the shipbroker concluded."

Hva ligger supra på nå i dollar pr dag? Bdi

Dagens rateoppdatering:

the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, rose 4.1% to 2,219 points. "Seasonally higher iron ore demand has played a role but the fast-growing bauxite trade has tightened fleet capacity significantly. The supply/demand balance is tighter than perceived, paving the way for higher rates and outsized earnings going forward, Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta said. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index advanced 4.8% to a one-year peak of 1,425 points. The benchmark index soared more than 100% on the month, its best since June 2020.

Og her er fra Fearnley rapporten fra i dag:

Supramax
Laden vessels in the Pacific are at all-time highs, and laden vessels in the Indian Ocean are slightly down from all-time highs. The market has tightened considerably in the Atlantic, where like in the other segments earnings is comparable to the heights of 2021 and 2022. This ongoing late-year rally strongly suggest fundamentals will be firm far into next year in our opinion, as it is unusual to see a rally at this time of year. The forward curve is likely to continue being bid in the coming months.

Det er i hvertfall ingen overdrivelse.

Tenker at JIN på dagens nivå kan fremstå som et rimelig alternativ for personer som ønsker å ha eksponering mot mulig sterk oppside i bulkmarkedet. Alternativene, som 2020 Bulkers, har også steget noe i det siste.

Ledelsen er kompetente shipping folk. Dagens salg av skippet bygget i 2006, illustrerer det godt.
Skipet ble kjøpt i 2021 for usd 9,3 mill. I dag selges det for ca usd 9,6 mill. I mellomtiden har det bidradd med ca usd 4,1 mill i overskudd
Nå er skipet for gammelt å ha i flåten, og selges derfor med en mindre fortjeneste, ( ca 0,6 usd mill).
Samtidig mer enn antyder det, at bokført verdi på de resterende skipene i flåten, ikke er overvurdert i forhold til markedsprisene.
Dermed kan vi anslå bokført egenkapital pr aksje til omlag NOK 36 ved dagens dollarkurs.
Det gir en P/NAV på omlag 0,18 - altså en voldsom undervurdering av verdien på aksjene.