Fearnleys beskrivelse av utviklingen for Panamax og Ultramax i uka som var:

Panamax
The Panamax market is experiencing diverse trends. In the North Atlantic, a surplus of vessels has led to a softer market, giving charterers the upper hand to negotiate lower rates and favorable terms. This scenario contrasts with the South Atlantic, which is performing well due to increased activity and higher rates driven by regional demands. In Asia, the market is mixed with pressures on Indonesian coal routes, yet there's potential for growth in the southern regions. Overall, the market is cautious, shaped by regional disparities in supply and demand.

Supramax
Strong Atlantic market keeps positive trend though the number of ballaster continues to increase. Fronthaul in USG on Ultra was fixed for a trip to India with Petcoke above USD 60,000 pd and about USD 50,000 pd for clean cargo to the Far East with a long duration. Trips across the Atlantic were paying in the region USD 50,000 pd for the trip with coal to Continent and low USD 30,000 pd for grain cargoes with longer duration. All other markets in the Atlantic, including ECSA, Black Sea, and Continent, have good demand, and rates are firm. Fronthaul on Ultramax delivery Brazil was fixed at USD 17,500 pd + 750,000 GBB to China. In Far East, though, we had a very short life of a good market before it started to soften again. Rates fall by USD 2,000-3,000 pd on most of the Pacific routes. Nopac RV with grain was fixed at USD 13,000 compared to the fixture, which was reported a week ago at USD 17,000. The same Indonesia-China RV is now fixed at USD 10,000 pd compared to USD 13,000 pd from last week.

dagens rateutvikling: and the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, slid 2% to its lowest since mid-November at 1,915 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index fell 1.4% to a two-week low of 1,442 points.

Videre: Uendrede timecharter rater siste uke for ultra/supra max etter det jeg kan se.

Deler av artikkel om reduksjon i antall båter som får gå gjennom panamakanalen. Hele ligger her: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/delays-in-transiting-the-panama-canal/

Hvor stor effekt dette vil få, sammen med andre faktorer, er usikkert.

Delays in transiting the Panama Canal
in Dry Bulk Market,Marine Insurance P&I Club News 13/12/2023

Due to a record-breaking lack of rain, the Panama Canal Authority has significantly reduced the number of vessels transiting the Canal. This in order to conserve water and hopefully avoid having to reduce the maximum allowable transit draft for vessels. The reduction to 22 (from about 34-36) vessels per day will remain in effect until 1 February 2024 when it will be reduced to 18 vessels per day.
The Authority has advised that vessels without bookings may face “indefinite delays”.

Dagens rateoppdatering: JIN har nok hatt den innleide panamaxen i virksomhet over en lengre periode nå, vil tro 4Q kommer til å vise en meget god økning i omsetningen.

Meanwhile, the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, fell by 2.6% to a three-week low of 1,996 points; and the supramax index decreased by 1.7% to 1,480 points.

Artikkel på Hellenic om det sterkere tørrbulkmarkedet:

Dry Bulk Rates Could Remain Higher for Longer
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 12/12/2023

The dry bulk market could remain in higher ground for longer, despite the recent rate correction. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal said that “over recent weeks, there has been a significant increase in earnings for dry bulk cargo transport across all sectors, with particular attention on Capesize earnings, which have exceeded $50,000 per day.

Accordingo to Intermodal’s Mr. Fotis Kanatas, Research Analyst, “one factor contributing to the rise, is the limitations being implemented on the Panama Canal. The limitations were announced in late October and will take effect in their final form in February 2024. Specifically, the Panama Canal Authority will gradually decrease daily transits until February, when only 18 vessels per day will be permitted, as an attempt to address low water levels. The congestion triggered has already affected bulkers, with the number of daily transits sitting at a 2023 low, indicating that owners have already started using alternatives. Consequently, cargo vessels facilitating the trade of agricultural products between the US Gulf or the ECSA and Asia are affected and forced to travel through the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope. This leads to a surge in tonne miles and an uptick in earnings”.

“Taking a look at the volumes of the trade, it is clear that the agricultural flows (corn, soybean, wheat and sugar) stand strong, and their trade has grown steadily during the last five years, with 2022 and 2023 being particularly strong. The main driver as the data suggests is imports from China, for all agricultural products, being by far the biggest importer, while the biggest exporter is Brazil, with the vast majority being soybean and corn, followed by Argentina and the United States. For instance, November was the strongest month in 5 years in terms of Chinese grain imports and also falls outside the traditional seasonal pattern. , as they imported a total of 13,544kt Freight rates underpin the story, with P7, tracking shipments from the USG to Qingdao, leaping 35% while P8, tracking shipments from Brazil to China, has surged almost 30% year-to-date”, Kanatas added.

Meanwhile, “another factor that also supported freight rates in the region is congestion in the biggest export ports of Brazil. This development came after Brazil had record production of soybean, corn and sugar, combined with historical low soybean production in Argentina, owned to draught in the country, which in turn, put more pressure in Brazil and therefore its ports to handle most of the trade, resulting in higher congestion which intensified after summer and peaked in October”.

Intermodal’s analyst concluded that “mid-size bulk carriers have experienced a volatile 2023 so far and the last few weeks have undoubtedly been extremely good for shipowners. Should the long congestion in the ECSA export ports continue and the Panama situation not be resolved, rates could remain elevated as demand for tonnage to export the bumper harvests is expected to remain strong”.

Beskrivelse av Hellenic av markedsutviklingen for panamax og supramax siste uke:

Panamax

It proved to be a tumultuous week in the Panamax market, with the stronger optimism seen last week carrying over to the early part of this week, although this dramatically eroded away with the week ending on a far weaker tone. In the Atlantic, short front-haul trips ex US East Coast to India contracted throughout, with $38,000, and $26,500 reported fixed on this run, albeit on two contrasting types, providing a good indicator of the market trend on all routes. Asia also saw further erosion in rates despite solid levels of demand in most loading origins, but the weaker sentiment emanating from the Atlantic basin impacted confidence here as well, with tonnage count slowly building. About $21,000 concluded early on an 82,000-dwt delivery China for a NoPac round trip, with deals for similar trips now concluding at closer to $18,500 as momentum switched back firmly in charterers favour.

Ultramax/Supramax

A rather patchy week after the recent strength in the sector as the week saw a change in direction. That said, it was described as positional. In the Atlantic, rates remained healthy with a good amount or fresh enquiry in the north, although South Atlantic demand slowed as the week ended. In Asia, similarly the recent positive sentiment wavered, brokers saying that enquiry levels had eased across the region. In the Indian Ocean, enquiry levels remained fairly healthy and the market was seen as finely balanced. Period activity was limited but a 63,000-dwt open Philippines fixed a short period at around $16,000. In the Atlantic, a 63,000-dwt was heard fixed in the mid $17,000s plus mid $700,000s ballast bonus basis delivery Santos for a fronthaul. Whilst a 56,000-dwt fixed a trip from Spain to the US East Coast at $18,000. From Asia, a 58,000-dwt open Malaysia fixed a trip via Indonesia redelivery China at $15,500. Further north, a 56,000-dwt fixed delivery mid-China for an Indonesian round voyage at $12,000.

Da skulle vi være godt oppdaterte:)

Tar også med denne oppdateringen om to andre tørrbulkselskaper:

Sparebank 1 Markets gjentar sin nøytralanbefaling på tørrbulkaksjer, men høyner kursmålet på Golden Ocean til 95 fra 80 og på 2020 Bulkers til 120 fra 100.
Det fremgår av en sektorrapport publisert mandag.

"Selv om vi er overrasket over styrken i spotprisene den siste tiden, ser vi fortsatt risiko knyttet til volumer av jernmalm og kull fremover. Vårt syn er at disse risikoene oppveier en støttende tilbudsside fremover. Når det er sagt har kinesiske importvolumer definitivt overrasket på oppsiden i år, og vi vil vurdere våre anbefalinger hvis denne styrken fortsetter", skriver meglerhuset.

Dagens rateoppdatering: Meanwhile, the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, fell 2.6% to its lowest since November 23rd at 2,049 points; and the supramax index decreased 15 points to 1,506 points.

Altså, fine rater for Supramax de siste dagene. Ratene har lagt over 1500 en ukes tid nå.

Gårsdagens rateoppdatering:

The panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, dropped 4.2% to 2,104 points; and the supramax index decreased 1.1% to 1,521 points.

ref. båten JIN leier inn: Her vil de vel tjene gode penger dersom ratene blir greie/gode, og dårlig dersom ratene blir svake. Balansemessig har dette lite å si, mens selskapet tar litt høyere markedsmessig risiko, noe som heller ikke gjør noen ting, både fordi utsiktene er ganske så gode der ratene fort kan skyte i været, og JIN har en lav markedsmessig risiko.

Jeg liker ledelsens kapital disiplin.

Dagens transaksjon med minimum 8,5 mill betaling over de neste 22 månendene, balanseres fint av salget av en gammel båt som ble solgt for 9,6 mii .
Den gamle båten var 18 år og på 53 tusen tonn- den nye er 2 år på 82 tusen tonn

Gårsdagens oppdatering på rater for Supramax og panamax:

the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, declined 4.9% to 2,197 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index fell 0.9% to 1,538 points.

Det nærmer seg nå å ha vært tre måneder med vesentlig høyere rater enn i vår/sommer. Ca. 10 september passerte supramaxindeksen 1100 og har holdt seg i intervallet 1100-1550 siden. Den siste tidens til dels elleville ferd spesielt for Capesize viser at det ikke er godt å vite hvordan ratene vil utvikle seg i månedene var.

Ukens beskrivelse av Supramax markedet fra Fearnley.

Supramax
Handy: The USG market remains firm. Furthermore, scarcity of tonnage is pushing rates higher and owners continue demanding premium. USG-Continent fixture reported at mid 26k levels. More activity seen in the ECSA market with multiple cargoes in market, however owners shy away from fronthaul biz with the market booming in Atlantic. On the Pacific side, we see the usual Indonesia-China run being fixed at mid 9k levels.

Supra/Ultra: With the boom in the USG-ECSA market, rates for a Supra doing ECSA-China run reported around USD 23k levels and the USG-Continent route paying upwards of USD 33k. The Pacific markets are also firming up with increased activity. The usual Indonesia-China runs paying USD 17k levels and the WC India-China route going upwards of USD 20k.

Overall, although we see a slight correction in the FFA market, physical market shows positive momentum which is expected to continue until the onset of holiday season. Given the continued scarcity of tonnages in the USG-Atlantic market, we expect the rate to remain stable in the region. As for the Pacific side, with the NOPAC grains season now we expect more activity and expect slight improvement in rates for the usual trade routes.

Dagens rater:

panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, fell about 0.7% to 2,425 points. Meanwhile, the supramax index added 39 points, or 2.6% to hit an over one-year high of 1,565 points.

Skipsverdier ser ut til å fortsette å stige både for Handymax, Supramax og Panamax: Hentet fra Hellenic 28. november: Jinhui har 23 egeneide skip og liten gjeld. Supramax skipet som refereres til under solgt ca. 11 % over VV verdsettelse.

"Panamax BC Nord Beluga (81,400 DWT, Apr 2015, Oshima) sold to unknown Greek buyers for USD 27.0 mil, VV Value USD 26.87 mil

Supramax BC Bulk Honduras (58,000 DWT, May 2012, Tsuneishi Cebu) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 19.50 mil, VV Value USD 17.5 mil

Handy BC Yangtze Pioneer (32,600 DWT, Jan 2011, Jiangmeng) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 10.9 mil, VV Value USD 10.0 mill"

Onsdagens rateoppdatering: "the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, declined 4.7% to 2,311 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index decreased 13 points, or 0.8% to 1,552 points. "Capesize rates are pulling back further as the spot market has gone somewhat quieter after a frantic period since mid-November. Rates in general remain strong but are on a softening trend. We view the backdrop as supportive to freight rates due to fundamentally healthier iron ore demand and seasonally stronger iron ore trade," Jefferies analysts wrote in a note."

Dagens rateoppdatering:

the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, increased 4.3% to 2,441 points, the highest since July 2022. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index advanced 2.5% to an over-one-year high of 1,526.

https://www.nrk.no/urix/flere-skip-angrepet-i-rodehavet-1.16663228

Skip i Rødehavet er under angrep fra Jemen. Dette gjør at turen gjennom suezkanalen også er en tur gjennom et krigsområde. Vanlige forsikringer gjelder ikke i krig. Det betyr at skip som skal gjennom suezkanalen må bytte til den litt dyrere krigsforsikringen. Dersom krigen blir hard så får du ikke forsikring overhodet.

Hvilken påvirkning på fraktratene kan en slik konflikt forårsake? Er det denne konflikten som er grunnen til at fraktratene har steget litt?

Dagens rateoppdatering for supramax og panamax:

the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, rose 5.5% to 2,341 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index advanced 4.5% to 1,489 points.

det er ikke meningen å skrive kryptiske meldinger, ei heller lage noen lang utredelse, men kort fortalt så er min påstand at en kineser aldri vil anerkjenne kritikk og/eller rette seg etter kritikk fra vestlige kilder, med mindre det er til egen vinning og fordel.

Nei, du får forklare nærmere den litt kryptiske meldingen?

Jeg ser for og motargumenter for JIN, og akkurat disse dager gjør den svært positive utviklingen i rater for bulkskip at det kan komme et plutselig løft i aksjekursen.

Kritikk fra utenforstående betyr null og niks for denne ledelsen, om du har kjennskap til mao's røde og mentaliteten til Kinesere og Hong Kong kinesere som sådan så vil du forstå.

Hvor mye av kritikken tror dere kommer tilbake til ledelsen i JIN og hvordan har de svart den ut?

Registrert lønn for nevnte er dessverre toppen av isfjellet på verdier som er unndratt gjennom variable verktøy eller rett og slett gamblet bort gjennom dårlige avtaler på valutasikring og annet. Det er gode grunner til den lave prising av aksjen, mener noen. Når det gjelder Freyr så har ledelsen opptrådd som fulle sjømenn, og grensen for akseptabel berikelse er for lengst passert i min bok, men ledelsen i Freyr kommer (enn så lenge) ikke til kvartfinalen engang målt mot ledelsen Jinhui, det er min subjektive mening. Men som du sier, så er aksjen lavt priset mot diverse referanser / konsensus i bransjen og det er helt sikkert mulig å tjene penger på kjøp og salg av JIN aksjen. Faktum er at skuffelsene for aksjonærene har stått i kø siste 15 årene, og jeg forstår ikke helt hvorfor dette plutselig skal endre seg.

To handymax skip sendt til skrap forrige uke, det er brukbart, det er i denne delen av markedet det finnes mange båter som blir erstattet av Ultramax.

https://shipandbunker.com/news/features/risk-management/277755-weekly-vessel-scrapping-report-2023-week-47

Hentet fra Gogl tråden, 12.11 i dag: "BCI opp nye 10,8% til $51 727 pr dag. 🚀🚀🚀""

Ulike forklaringer på økninger i ratene i bulkmarkedet. Hentet fra Hellenic.

"According to the shipbroker, “first of all, as we have previously reported, China’s government continues the efforts to boost its economy with liquidity injections, by accelerating the issuance of bonds, which is definitely a significant explanation for this rally. Beijing is increasing its pressure on banks to provide financial assistance to struggling real estate developers, while it is also targeting the world’s largest banks, urging them to extend more credit and guarantee that private developers are able to secure loans at the same rate as the industry average. During the past week we saw a rebound in property developer’s stocks. Despite not unveiling its restructuring plan, Country Garden shares have risen over 60% this month, while the stock of Evergrande also climbed over 10% within the same period. Furthermore, the expectations of increased investment in China’s urban development, as the latest government push comes in a bid to revive urban villages (projects built on rural lands) together with the fact that inventories of iron ore have sunk to their lowest level in seven years – have powered the iron price forecasts. Citi has set Iron price target at USD 140/tonne. This may also justify the launch of the Capesize market, as “thirst” for iron ore to fill the low inventories, increases China’s imports”.

Xclusiv added that “apart from China, another reason that may have driven that tremendous increase in the Capesize sector is the unprecedented traffic in South African ports. Nearly 100 vessels are waiting to berth in South African ports – as Transnet, the state-owned logistics company, struggles with breakdowns and bad weather. Due to unprecedented traffic, Transnet suspended on 20th November processing trucks carrying coal to Richards Bay, also affecting seaborne trade. South Africa is a leading iron ore and coal exporter, with its iron ore and coal shipments valued at USD 6.7 billion and USD 13 billion respectively for 2022.

Finally, Panama Canal’s major restrictions have positively affected the dry bulk market, as limited daily transits are limited to 18 vessels and almost all of them are container or gas carriers. Most other vessels are trying routes bypassing Panama canal and adding tonne-miles to the market. An MR tanker chartered by Glencore which was carrying fuel cargo, in order to avoid the delays at the Panama Canal, preferred to pass through the Strait of Maggelan, making a longer journey around the southern point of South America adding thousands of miles to its route. Some charterers instead of bypassing Panama canal, prefer to pay a premium for a priority spot, while the price of auctioned slots are nearly USD 4 mill”, the shipbroker concluded."

Hva ligger supra på nå i dollar pr dag? Bdi

Dagens rateoppdatering:

the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, rose 4.1% to 2,219 points. "Seasonally higher iron ore demand has played a role but the fast-growing bauxite trade has tightened fleet capacity significantly. The supply/demand balance is tighter than perceived, paving the way for higher rates and outsized earnings going forward, Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta said. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index advanced 4.8% to a one-year peak of 1,425 points. The benchmark index soared more than 100% on the month, its best since June 2020.

Og her er fra Fearnley rapporten fra i dag:

Supramax
Laden vessels in the Pacific are at all-time highs, and laden vessels in the Indian Ocean are slightly down from all-time highs. The market has tightened considerably in the Atlantic, where like in the other segments earnings is comparable to the heights of 2021 and 2022. This ongoing late-year rally strongly suggest fundamentals will be firm far into next year in our opinion, as it is unusual to see a rally at this time of year. The forward curve is likely to continue being bid in the coming months.

Det er i hvertfall ingen overdrivelse.

Tenker at JIN på dagens nivå kan fremstå som et rimelig alternativ for personer som ønsker å ha eksponering mot mulig sterk oppside i bulkmarkedet. Alternativene, som 2020 Bulkers, har også steget noe i det siste.

Ledelsen er kompetente shipping folk. Dagens salg av skippet bygget i 2006, illustrerer det godt.
Skipet ble kjøpt i 2021 for usd 9,3 mill. I dag selges det for ca usd 9,6 mill. I mellomtiden har det bidradd med ca usd 4,1 mill i overskudd
Nå er skipet for gammelt å ha i flåten, og selges derfor med en mindre fortjeneste, ( ca 0,6 usd mill).
Samtidig mer enn antyder det, at bokført verdi på de resterende skipene i flåten, ikke er overvurdert i forhold til markedsprisene.
Dermed kan vi anslå bokført egenkapital pr aksje til omlag NOK 36 ved dagens dollarkurs.
Det gir en P/NAV på omlag 0,18 - altså en voldsom undervurdering av verdien på aksjene.

Baltic Dry-indeksen er opp 12,76 prosent til 2.696 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange.

Vel da bør mange selskaper også bli tatt for det samme. Er enig i at lønnen til de 2 brødrene er for høy. Fastlønn på 3 millioner usd på de sjefene er for høyt. Totalt 6 millioner usd I fastlønn i året på 2 personer. Men bonusene på de 2 er mer edruelig de ligger på bare 1.2 millioner usd. 600 tusen pr sjef. Freyr sjefen er dog verre med opsjoner og lønn på 1 år på 100 millioner på det verste.

Positiv utvikling for Supramax skipsverdier sist uke:

Supramax BC Bulk Honduras (58,000 DWT, May 2012, Tsuneishi Cebu) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 19.50 mil, VV Value USD 17.5 mil

Skipet altså solgt for 11-12 prosent over VesselValues verdi.

Capesize stiger visst over 20% i dag og fortsetter den elleville turen. Gogl har steget 20% i det siste.

haha, når du nevner piratvirksomhet utenfor Jemen så kan du også inkludere Hong Kong i samme slengen, makan til sjørøveri som denne ledelsen har utøvd finnes knapt..... Selskapet (aka ledelsen) burde strengt tatt vært ekskludert fra OSE for lenge side, om ikke annet for usportslig opptreden.

Disclaimer: har ikke, og har aldri hatt aksjer i selskapet.

Det har blitt plukket fra selgersiden, høyere og høyere i dag, og at fallet i aksjen tidlig på dagen ikke er representativt for kjøper/selger interessen etter resultatet.

Undervurdert iforhold til den fantastiske ledelsen? Bør jo prioriteres med høyere lønninger nå, sterke bonuser! Var noen år siden jeg gav opp selskapet. Men folk har jo forskjellige oppfatninger av selskapet så.. Finnes dokk noen mere seriøse på Oslo børs som gir direkte avkastning til aksjenærer ( utbytte). Men for å oppnå utbytte, må selskapet ha positive driftsresultater.

Foreslår at vi sletter denne tråden.
Substansverdien er ikke lengre 39,1 NOK pr. aksje.
Ved dagens regnskap og dagens valutakurs er egenkapitalen verdsatt til ca 36 nok pr aksje.
Det viktige spørsmålet er om bokførte skipsverdier er nogenlunde i takt med markedsverdien på de samme skipene .
Hvis så er tilfelle, er aksjeprisen fortsatt en kraftig undervurdert.

La oss se på regnskapet. 20 mill usd i omsetning. 6+2 mill usd i tap. 8531 usd i supramax rater. De trenger med andre ord minst 30% høyere rater for å gå i null.
8531x1,3= 11090 dollar i supramax rater for å gå i 0. Dette selskapet har lite gjeld, men break even er høyere enn sine konkurrenter.

Når dem hadde 19k i rater i fjor så var det så vidt båten bar kostnadene. Dersom ledelsen ikke tar pengene så bør selskapet umiddelbart slaktes.

Det skal være relativt lett å see om ledelsen bare tilpasser lønningene sine framover. De neste 6 månedene så vil ratene stige nokså kraftig. Tørke i panama kanalen kombinert med stygg og økende piratvirkesomhet utenfor Jemen. 5% sannsynlighet for at homuzstredet blir fysisk stengt på grunn av en storkonflikt i området.

Jeg tror kursen vil falle i dag, men helt sikker er jeg ikke.

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Jinhui Shipping and Transportation fikk et nettoresultat på -8,1 millioner dollar i tredje kvartal 2023, mot et nettoresultat på 0,3 millioner dollar i samme periode året før, ifølge selskapets kvartalsrapport onsdag.

Omsetningen ble 20,0 millioner dollar (39,6), mens driftsresultatet utgjorde -6,3 millioner dollar (1,4).

Har du hørt sånt vås. Er bare i jinhui man kan høre sånt. Hva med freyr og de 200 millioner i ledelsen har fått når de har produsert 0 verdi. Eller lederlønningene i Nel som taper penger. Bonusene i jinhui er helt normale i internasjonal shipping. Er bestandig bonuser i mer eller mindre grad. Se på balansen til jinhui og prøv på nytt. Bonusen til ledelsen står i årsrapporten under noter.

Hele tørrbulkindeksen BDI opp 7,5% i dag til 2259 poeng. Her går det unna.

Dagens beskrivelse av rateutvikling:

and the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, increased for the 16th session, rising 0.5% to an over one-year high of 2,106 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index added 29 points or 2.2% to a two-month peak of 1,321 points. "Congestion in Brazil and delays through the Panama canal have likely played a part in the rise of Panamax, with a similar consequence for the Supramaxes", shipbroker Allied said.

Dagens rateoppdatering fra Tradingeconomics.:

the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, increased for the 15th session, rising 1.5% to 2,095 points, its highest since October 2022. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index was up 13 points or 1% to 1,292 points.

Lang rapport om tørrbulkmarkedet.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/2023-11-Dry-Bulk-Outlook.pdf

Capesize indeks opp nye 9,4% i dag.... (et marked Jinhui ikke er i)

Fraktratene ligger an til å gå i taket. Store problemer i panamakanalen. Dette kan løse seg raskt, men det kan også i verste fall ta opptil 5 år. Værgudene bestemmer der i gården. Suez kanalen har og en del problemer. Da forsikringsregningen går opp på grunn av piratvirksomhet utenfor Jemen. Der er og en liten fare for at homuzstredet blir stengt. Iran kan ha økonomiske grunner til å gjøre det.

Men Jin vil ikke øke så mye i verdi på grunn av lederne med ubegrenset leder lønninger. For at Jin skal stige så må der for eksempel komme en lov om at lønn til leder gruppa ikke kan overstige 2 mill per ansatt + 15% av netto profitt til ledergruppen som helhet.

Omtale av forrige ukes utvikling i Ultramax/Supramax markedet på Hellenicshippingnews.

Ultramax/Supramax

The positive momentum continued throughout the week despite the holiday in the United States and Japan. The Atlantic saw sustained demand from key areas such as the US Gulf and it was a similar story from South America, with a 53,000 dwt heard to have fixed delivery Santos for a fronthaul in the mid $15,000s plus mid $500,000s ballast bonus. In the US Gulf a 56,000 dwt fixed at $30,000 for a trip to the United Kingdom. Mixed signals from the Asian arena but overall it remained cautiously optimistic. A 61,000 dwt open North China fixing an Australian round at $11,500, while further south, a 58,000 dwt open Sarawak was fixed for a trip via Indonesia redelivery China at $13,000. Sustained demand in the Indian Ocean saw a 63,000 dwt fixing delivery Visakhapatnam for a trip via South Africa for a fronthaul at around $14,500. It was also worth noting that period activity increased a 63,000-dwt open Italy was heard for 3 to 5 months trading at $18,500.

Ser lovende ut mot nyttår

https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2023/11/24/8063292/capesizeratene-stiger-over-26-prosent

Baltic dry opp 13.32 prosent i dag. Usikkert hvordan supramax har utviklet seg.