RECSI - Polysilicon Shortage Decides Installation Pace 2022-2027
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Daqo reports polysilicon average selling price of $32.76/kg in Q1
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/04/22/chinese-pv-industry-brief-daqo-reports-polysilicon-average-selling-price-of-32-76-kg-in-q1
APRIL 22, 2022
"
...
“We are very pleased to report exceptional results for the first quarter of 2022, the best-ever in the company’s history,” said Daqo CEO Longgen Zhang. “Last December, we began production at our new 35,000 MT phase 4B polysilicon expansion project. Production ramp up was successful throughout the first quarter.” Looking forward, Daqo said it expected to produce between 32,000 MT to 34,000 MT of polysilicon in the second quarter of 2022 and approximately 120,000 MT to 125,000 MT of polysilicon in the full year of 2022.
“We believe the polysilicon sector will remain one of the most profitable sectors in the solar PV value chain, as polysilicon will continue to be in short supply and determine the actual pace and total volume of global installations,” the company stated.
..
"
Main Industry Chain Prices Saw Minor Increment except Wafers amidst Incessant Pandemic-Induced Impact
https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20220421-27871.html
APRIL 21, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon prices continued to increase marginally this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations sitting at roughly RMB 252/kg. With most long-term orders for April being signed, polysilicon transactions were relatively sluggish this week, where merely a small amount of urgent and sporadic orders were signed. In addition, the various extents of impact on output and logistics among polysilicon businesses under the pandemic have resulted in a constrained provision of raw materials, and the confined production schedule has impeded the supply of partial long-term orders. Urgent orders are being concluded on a high price level, which surged the average concluded prices of polysilicon this week.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon segment indicates that two businesses are currently under overhaul. Polysilicon is insufficient in terms of new capacity release. Some wafer businesses are lowering their operating rate due to the pandemic, though they are maintained on a relatively high operating rate on the whole owing to gradually releasing capacity, and these businesses’ unabated demand for polysilicon will provide a support for polysilicon prices in lingering at a high level within the short term.
..
"
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Polysilicon prices keep rising
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/04/15/chinese-pv-industry-brief-polysilicon-prices-keep-rising-2/
APRIL 15, 2022
Polysilicon maker predicts 5-year shortage of solar raw material
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/04/20/polysilicon-maker-predicts-5-year-shortage-of-solar-raw-material/
APRIL 20, 2022
Wacker falls to fourth in global polysilicon ranking
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/04/27/wacker-falls-to-fourth-in-global-polysilicon-ranking/
APRIL 27, 2022
“..
‘Follow China’s lead’
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has opened the eyes for what it means to be economically dependent on a dictatorial regime,” said Bernreuter. “Western governments should not make the same mistake with China. It is high time to establish non-Chinese solar supply chains. China has demonstrated what the ingredients of success are: low electricity rates for power-hungry polysilicon and ingot production, loan guarantees for private investment, cost-efficient equipment manufacturing, and strategic foresight.”
..”
Polysilicon price fluctuations expected to continue until late 2023
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/02/24/polysilicon-price-fluctuations-expected-to-continue-until-late-2023/
FEBRUARY 24, 2022
___________________
Kilde til overskrift
POLYSILICON PRICE TREND
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend
APRIL 20, 2022
"
..
The slight decrease in the average polysilicon spot price on April 20 is purely due to a weakening Chinese Yuan; EnergyTrend’s spot price average of mono-grade polysilicon in China has further risen to CNY252/kg (incl. 13% VAT) from CNY251/kg last week.
..
Our recommendation
Bernreuter Research recommends that you you look at PVinsights, EnergyTrend and PV InfoLink for comparison, rather than favoring the price data from just one provider.
Statements on the market trend can be contradictory from time to time. If, for instance, one data provider reports high polysilicon inventories in the value chain whereas the other claims low ones, the latter may be based on information from suppliers that are interested in playing down the scope of inventories in order to be in a better bargaining position vis-à-vis their customers. For this reason, it is always a good idea to base your judgment on several views and sometimes, you just have to live with information discrepancies.
"
http://pvinsights.com/
https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price
___________________
What’s next for polysilicon?
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/10/26/whats-next-for-polysilicon/
OCTOBER 26, 2021
China’s cheap electricity crowds out foreign polysilicon
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/02/18/chinas-cheap-electricity-crowds-out-foreign-polysilicon/
FEBRUARY 18, 2021
“
..
Polysilicon market analyst Johannes Bernreuter says China imported around 30% less polysilicon last year and cornered 80% of the global market for its domestic manufacturers, fueled by uber-low electricity prices.
“South Korea’s polysilicon industry was out-competed by Chinese producers who enjoy extremely low and subsidized electricity rates from coal-fired power plants in the western regions of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia,” said Bernreuter, noting Korean players OCI and Hanwha exited the market a year ago, citing electricity prices.
..
“
Solar Power May Be the Next Victim of China’s Coal Shortage
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/china-slashes-silicon-output-signaling-higher-solar-panel-costs
SEPTEMBER 29, 2021
China’s power crisis:
Long-term goals meet short-term realities
https://a9w7k6q9.stackpathcdn.com/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Chinas-power-crisis.pdf
Solar outlook looks bright amid Russia-Ukraine war
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/analysis-trends/PV-markets-remain-bullish-amid-Russia-Ukraine-conflicts
MARCH 31, 2022
"
..
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused oil and natural gas prices to surge. This put renewable energy in the spotlight again. European countries, being aware of their dependence on Russian oil and natural gas, are rolling out plans to diversify energy sources and facilitate the transition to renewables.
..
"
Cumulative installed solar PV capacity worldwide from 2000 to 2020
https://www.statista.com/statistics/280220/global-cumulative-installed-solar-pv-capacity/#:~:text=Global%20cumulative%20solar%20photovoltaic%20capacity,installed%20in%20that%20same%20year.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/04/22/chinese-pv-industry-brief-daqo-reports-polysilicon-average-selling-price-of-32-76-kg-in-q1
APRIL 22, 2022
"
...
“We are very pleased to report exceptional results for the first quarter of 2022, the best-ever in the company’s history,” said Daqo CEO Longgen Zhang. “Last December, we began production at our new 35,000 MT phase 4B polysilicon expansion project. Production ramp up was successful throughout the first quarter.” Looking forward, Daqo said it expected to produce between 32,000 MT to 34,000 MT of polysilicon in the second quarter of 2022 and approximately 120,000 MT to 125,000 MT of polysilicon in the full year of 2022.
“We believe the polysilicon sector will remain one of the most profitable sectors in the solar PV value chain, as polysilicon will continue to be in short supply and determine the actual pace and total volume of global installations,” the company stated.
..
"
Main Industry Chain Prices Saw Minor Increment except Wafers amidst Incessant Pandemic-Induced Impact
https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20220421-27871.html
APRIL 21, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon prices continued to increase marginally this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations sitting at roughly RMB 252/kg. With most long-term orders for April being signed, polysilicon transactions were relatively sluggish this week, where merely a small amount of urgent and sporadic orders were signed. In addition, the various extents of impact on output and logistics among polysilicon businesses under the pandemic have resulted in a constrained provision of raw materials, and the confined production schedule has impeded the supply of partial long-term orders. Urgent orders are being concluded on a high price level, which surged the average concluded prices of polysilicon this week.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon segment indicates that two businesses are currently under overhaul. Polysilicon is insufficient in terms of new capacity release. Some wafer businesses are lowering their operating rate due to the pandemic, though they are maintained on a relatively high operating rate on the whole owing to gradually releasing capacity, and these businesses’ unabated demand for polysilicon will provide a support for polysilicon prices in lingering at a high level within the short term.
..
"
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Polysilicon prices keep rising
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/04/15/chinese-pv-industry-brief-polysilicon-prices-keep-rising-2/
APRIL 15, 2022
Polysilicon maker predicts 5-year shortage of solar raw material
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/04/20/polysilicon-maker-predicts-5-year-shortage-of-solar-raw-material/
APRIL 20, 2022
Wacker falls to fourth in global polysilicon ranking
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/04/27/wacker-falls-to-fourth-in-global-polysilicon-ranking/
APRIL 27, 2022
“..
‘Follow China’s lead’
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has opened the eyes for what it means to be economically dependent on a dictatorial regime,” said Bernreuter. “Western governments should not make the same mistake with China. It is high time to establish non-Chinese solar supply chains. China has demonstrated what the ingredients of success are: low electricity rates for power-hungry polysilicon and ingot production, loan guarantees for private investment, cost-efficient equipment manufacturing, and strategic foresight.”
..”
Polysilicon price fluctuations expected to continue until late 2023
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/02/24/polysilicon-price-fluctuations-expected-to-continue-until-late-2023/
FEBRUARY 24, 2022
___________________
Kilde til overskrift
POLYSILICON PRICE TREND
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend
APRIL 20, 2022
"
..
The slight decrease in the average polysilicon spot price on April 20 is purely due to a weakening Chinese Yuan; EnergyTrend’s spot price average of mono-grade polysilicon in China has further risen to CNY252/kg (incl. 13% VAT) from CNY251/kg last week.
..
Our recommendation
Bernreuter Research recommends that you you look at PVinsights, EnergyTrend and PV InfoLink for comparison, rather than favoring the price data from just one provider.
Statements on the market trend can be contradictory from time to time. If, for instance, one data provider reports high polysilicon inventories in the value chain whereas the other claims low ones, the latter may be based on information from suppliers that are interested in playing down the scope of inventories in order to be in a better bargaining position vis-à-vis their customers. For this reason, it is always a good idea to base your judgment on several views and sometimes, you just have to live with information discrepancies.
"
http://pvinsights.com/
https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price
___________________
What’s next for polysilicon?
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/10/26/whats-next-for-polysilicon/
OCTOBER 26, 2021
China’s cheap electricity crowds out foreign polysilicon
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/02/18/chinas-cheap-electricity-crowds-out-foreign-polysilicon/
FEBRUARY 18, 2021
“
..
Polysilicon market analyst Johannes Bernreuter says China imported around 30% less polysilicon last year and cornered 80% of the global market for its domestic manufacturers, fueled by uber-low electricity prices.
“South Korea’s polysilicon industry was out-competed by Chinese producers who enjoy extremely low and subsidized electricity rates from coal-fired power plants in the western regions of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia,” said Bernreuter, noting Korean players OCI and Hanwha exited the market a year ago, citing electricity prices.
..
“
Solar Power May Be the Next Victim of China’s Coal Shortage
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/china-slashes-silicon-output-signaling-higher-solar-panel-costs
SEPTEMBER 29, 2021
China’s power crisis:
Long-term goals meet short-term realities
https://a9w7k6q9.stackpathcdn.com/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Chinas-power-crisis.pdf
Solar outlook looks bright amid Russia-Ukraine war
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/analysis-trends/PV-markets-remain-bullish-amid-Russia-Ukraine-conflicts
MARCH 31, 2022
"
..
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused oil and natural gas prices to surge. This put renewable energy in the spotlight again. European countries, being aware of their dependence on Russian oil and natural gas, are rolling out plans to diversify energy sources and facilitate the transition to renewables.
..
"
Cumulative installed solar PV capacity worldwide from 2000 to 2020
https://www.statista.com/statistics/280220/global-cumulative-installed-solar-pv-capacity/#:~:text=Global%20cumulative%20solar%20photovoltaic%20capacity,installed%20in%20that%20same%20year.
Redigert 09.07.2022 kl 12:44
Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
11.05.2022 kl 12:41
11321
Current polysilicon spot price: US$33.59 per kg +0.2%
Last update: May 11, 2022
Due to the continuing depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, the rise of the Chinese polysilicon spot price is not fully mirrored in our global spot price average. After the Chinese Labor Day holidays, EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has strongly increased to CNY259/kg (incl. 13% VAT) from CNY254/kg on April 28.
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
Last update: May 11, 2022
Due to the continuing depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, the rise of the Chinese polysilicon spot price is not fully mirrored in our global spot price average. After the Chinese Labor Day holidays, EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has strongly increased to CNY259/kg (incl. 13% VAT) from CNY254/kg on April 28.
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
manman01
11.05.2022 kl 12:46
11431
No end to solar supply/demand imbalance
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/05/11/no-end-to-solar-supply-demand-imbalance/
MAY 11, 2022
“..
As shown in the graph (left), polysilicon supply has improved from last year and is likely to meet end-user demand. Yet, InfoLink predicts that polysilicon supply will remain short due to the following factors: Firstly, it will take about six months for new production lines to reach full capacity, meaning production is limited. Secondly, the time taken for new capacity to come online varies among manufacturers, with capacity growing slowly during first and second quarter, and then increasing markedly in the third and fourth quarter. Lastly, despite continued polysilicon production, Covid-19’s resurgence in China has disrupted supply, leaving it unable to meet demand from the wafer segment, which holds huge capacity.
Raw material and BOM price trends decide whether module prices will stay on the rise. Like polysilicon, it seems that EVA particle production volume can satisfy demand from the module sector this year, but equipment maintenance and the pandemic will lead to an imbalanced supply-demand relationship in the short term.
Supply chain prices are expected to stay elevated and will not decline until the end of the year, when new polysilicon production capacities come fully online. Next year, the entire supply chain may hopefully recover to a healthy state, allowing the long-stressed module makers and system suppliers to take a deep breath. Unfortunately, striking a balance between high prices and robust demand continues to be major topic of discussion throughout 2022.
..”
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/05/11/no-end-to-solar-supply-demand-imbalance/
MAY 11, 2022
“..
As shown in the graph (left), polysilicon supply has improved from last year and is likely to meet end-user demand. Yet, InfoLink predicts that polysilicon supply will remain short due to the following factors: Firstly, it will take about six months for new production lines to reach full capacity, meaning production is limited. Secondly, the time taken for new capacity to come online varies among manufacturers, with capacity growing slowly during first and second quarter, and then increasing markedly in the third and fourth quarter. Lastly, despite continued polysilicon production, Covid-19’s resurgence in China has disrupted supply, leaving it unable to meet demand from the wafer segment, which holds huge capacity.
Raw material and BOM price trends decide whether module prices will stay on the rise. Like polysilicon, it seems that EVA particle production volume can satisfy demand from the module sector this year, but equipment maintenance and the pandemic will lead to an imbalanced supply-demand relationship in the short term.
Supply chain prices are expected to stay elevated and will not decline until the end of the year, when new polysilicon production capacities come fully online. Next year, the entire supply chain may hopefully recover to a healthy state, allowing the long-stressed module makers and system suppliers to take a deep breath. Unfortunately, striking a balance between high prices and robust demand continues to be major topic of discussion throughout 2022.
..”
manman01
13.05.2022 kl 12:00
11081
China’s Newest Commodity Exchange Eyes Silicon as First Contract
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/china-s-newest-commodity-exchange-eyes-silicon-as-first-contract
MAY 13, 2022
“..
The exchange began operations in April 2021 as China’s fifth bourse to focus on commodities and derivatives. It’s seeking to find niches in goods that are not yet traded on other domestic platforms, and has received approval for 16 products, including polysilicon, rare earths and lithium, according to its website.
..”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/china-s-newest-commodity-exchange-eyes-silicon-as-first-contract
MAY 13, 2022
“..
The exchange began operations in April 2021 as China’s fifth bourse to focus on commodities and derivatives. It’s seeking to find niches in goods that are not yet traded on other domestic platforms, and has received approval for 16 products, including polysilicon, rare earths and lithium, according to its website.
..”
manman01
16.05.2022 kl 09:12
10803
Mens diverse aktører har travlt med at snuble over hinanden på vejen ud af døren, kan vi andre nyde nogle nyheder.
Global solar demand to reach 190 GW this year, says IEA
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/05/16/global-solar-demand-to-reach-190-gw-this-year-says-iea/
MAY 16, 2022
“..
A new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that new renewable energy capacity additions will exceed 300 GW globally this year for the first time, with mounting concerns about climate change and energy security driving an 8% increase, after new installations reached almost 295 GW in 2021.
The IEA said that despite persistent pandemic-induced supply chain challenges, construction delays, and record-level raw material and commodity prices, renewable capacity additions increased by a record 6% globally in 2021.
..”
Global solar demand to reach 190 GW this year, says IEA
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/05/16/global-solar-demand-to-reach-190-gw-this-year-says-iea/
MAY 16, 2022
“..
A new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that new renewable energy capacity additions will exceed 300 GW globally this year for the first time, with mounting concerns about climate change and energy security driving an 8% increase, after new installations reached almost 295 GW in 2021.
The IEA said that despite persistent pandemic-induced supply chain challenges, construction delays, and record-level raw material and commodity prices, renewable capacity additions increased by a record 6% globally in 2021.
..”
manman01
16.05.2022 kl 09:15
10822
Foundry Product Prices Rising One after Another
http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=92765
MAY 16, 2022
“..
This trend is because raw material prices are continuing to rise. For instance, Shin-Etsu Chemical and Sumco, the top two in the wafer industry, raised the prices of their products by 20 percent each last year. This year, the former announced an additional markup of 10 percent or so and the Taiwanese wafer suppliers including FST and Wafer Works are following suit.
“Manufacturers’ demand is high amid the chip supply shortage and the price of polysilicon for wafer manufacturing is continuing to rise,” said an industry source, adding, “At the same time, wafer suppliers are slow in expanding their facilities, and the current situation may continue for five years or so.”
..”
http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=92765
MAY 16, 2022
“..
This trend is because raw material prices are continuing to rise. For instance, Shin-Etsu Chemical and Sumco, the top two in the wafer industry, raised the prices of their products by 20 percent each last year. This year, the former announced an additional markup of 10 percent or so and the Taiwanese wafer suppliers including FST and Wafer Works are following suit.
“Manufacturers’ demand is high amid the chip supply shortage and the price of polysilicon for wafer manufacturing is continuing to rise,” said an industry source, adding, “At the same time, wafer suppliers are slow in expanding their facilities, and the current situation may continue for five years or so.”
..”
manman01
16.05.2022 kl 18:41
10479
A fate realized: 1 TW of solar to be deployed annually by 2030
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/05/16/a-fate-realized-1-tw-of-solar-to-be-deployed-annually-by-2030/
MAY 16, 2022
“..
At InterSolar Munich last week, LONGi Solar, the global leader in solar panel manufacturing, projected that global solar deployment will reach 1 TW per year by 2030.
..”
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/05/16/a-fate-realized-1-tw-of-solar-to-be-deployed-annually-by-2030/
MAY 16, 2022
“..
At InterSolar Munich last week, LONGi Solar, the global leader in solar panel manufacturing, projected that global solar deployment will reach 1 TW per year by 2030.
..”
manman01
19.05.2022 kl 09:53
10054
-0.38%
http://pvinsights.com/
________
Module prices advance amid varying price trends upstream
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0518-PV-spot-price
MAY 18, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon production capacity has been growing since the beginning of the year, with actual production volume duly increasing. In May, production volumes of some leading polysilicon manufacturers drop, owing to partial line inspections or line mergences for new production capacity that affect power supply. Still, this month is expected to see 65,000-66,000 MT of monthly production volume, a 4-6% increase on April’s level, thanks to new capacities that came online earlier this year.
Returning from the Labor Day holiday, the market sees upstream shortages show no sign of easing. Polysilicon supply remains tight. Trading prices for mono-grade polysilicon advance further, coming in at RMB 252-257/kg, whilst that of recycled polysilicon scrap sits slightly higher. Overall, prices in the polysilicon sector stand above RMB 250/kg.
Production volume has increased 16% this month, compared with levels in January. Still, prices rise on stronger end user demand and disproportionate supply-demand relationship caused by exceedingly fast capacity expansion of ingot facilities. But with narrowing room for further increases.
Differences between prices for polysilicon in China and overseas are set to enlarge, thanks to the latter’s characteristics, advantages, and seemingly rare production capacity increases in recent terms.
..
"
________
Current polysilicon spot price: US$33.49 per kg
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
MAY 18, 2022
"
..
While the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has slowed down, EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has remained unchanged at CNY259/kg (incl. 13% VAT) compared to the previous week.
..
"
http://pvinsights.com/
________
Module prices advance amid varying price trends upstream
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0518-PV-spot-price
MAY 18, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon production capacity has been growing since the beginning of the year, with actual production volume duly increasing. In May, production volumes of some leading polysilicon manufacturers drop, owing to partial line inspections or line mergences for new production capacity that affect power supply. Still, this month is expected to see 65,000-66,000 MT of monthly production volume, a 4-6% increase on April’s level, thanks to new capacities that came online earlier this year.
Returning from the Labor Day holiday, the market sees upstream shortages show no sign of easing. Polysilicon supply remains tight. Trading prices for mono-grade polysilicon advance further, coming in at RMB 252-257/kg, whilst that of recycled polysilicon scrap sits slightly higher. Overall, prices in the polysilicon sector stand above RMB 250/kg.
Production volume has increased 16% this month, compared with levels in January. Still, prices rise on stronger end user demand and disproportionate supply-demand relationship caused by exceedingly fast capacity expansion of ingot facilities. But with narrowing room for further increases.
Differences between prices for polysilicon in China and overseas are set to enlarge, thanks to the latter’s characteristics, advantages, and seemingly rare production capacity increases in recent terms.
..
"
________
Current polysilicon spot price: US$33.49 per kg
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
MAY 18, 2022
"
..
While the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has slowed down, EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has remained unchanged at CNY259/kg (incl. 13% VAT) compared to the previous week.
..
"
Redigert 19.05.2022 kl 09:54
Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
19.05.2022 kl 10:31
10001
Module supply to the PV industry in 2022: factors driving changes across manufacturing and supply chains
https://www.pv-tech.org/module-supply-to-the-pv-industry-in-2022-factors-driving-changes-across-manufacturing-and-supply-chains/
MAY 18, 2022
(Alternativt: https://pastebin.com/XuAFysw4)
"
..
Leading indicators for change
When looking at the scale of the problems buying modules today, there is almost no chance that any meaningful fix will appear in the next 12-18 months. In this context, 2023 could largely be a continuation of the factors prevalent in 2022.
When looking for signs of a changing module supply landscape, the willingness of leading module suppliers to commit to global regions for upstream manufacturing could be important. Until now, efforts in this regard have been defensive in nature; setting up cell/module capacity in Southeast Asia to ship to the US; investing in module assembly lines in the US.
The door would appear to be wide open now for a major silicon-based player to set up gigawatt-level ingot-to-module manufacturing across key regions; India, Europe, North America. This would be a major step in terms of decoupling shipments from tariff-related risks. This could have the scope to see 2024-2025 as the first time that manufacturing becomes truly global in nature, allowing buyers to plan ahead without worrying about unexpected trade wars having a catastrophic impact on module supply in the near- to mid-term. It will be fascinating to see if the sector as a whole unfolds in this way going forward.
..
"
https://www.pv-tech.org/module-supply-to-the-pv-industry-in-2022-factors-driving-changes-across-manufacturing-and-supply-chains/
MAY 18, 2022
(Alternativt: https://pastebin.com/XuAFysw4)
"
..
Leading indicators for change
When looking at the scale of the problems buying modules today, there is almost no chance that any meaningful fix will appear in the next 12-18 months. In this context, 2023 could largely be a continuation of the factors prevalent in 2022.
When looking for signs of a changing module supply landscape, the willingness of leading module suppliers to commit to global regions for upstream manufacturing could be important. Until now, efforts in this regard have been defensive in nature; setting up cell/module capacity in Southeast Asia to ship to the US; investing in module assembly lines in the US.
The door would appear to be wide open now for a major silicon-based player to set up gigawatt-level ingot-to-module manufacturing across key regions; India, Europe, North America. This would be a major step in terms of decoupling shipments from tariff-related risks. This could have the scope to see 2024-2025 as the first time that manufacturing becomes truly global in nature, allowing buyers to plan ahead without worrying about unexpected trade wars having a catastrophic impact on module supply in the near- to mid-term. It will be fascinating to see if the sector as a whole unfolds in this way going forward.
..
"
Redigert 19.05.2022 kl 10:31
Du må logge inn for å svare
Hahahaha, dette blir så stort... Blir gøy fremover når man innser at "hausserne" faktisk ikke tok hardt nok i, i sine påstander om årene fremover ;)
Mange takk igjen manman!
Mange takk igjen manman!
Sa2ri
19.05.2022 kl 10:36
10005
Et annet moment er vedtaket i EU i går (REPowerEU) og hva det vil bety for poly fremover - det blir i hvert fall ikke noe mindre behov når alle tak på nybygg i EU skal ha solpaneler.
Redigert 19.05.2022 kl 10:58
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Stabukk
19.05.2022 kl 10:45
9954
Og ei ny melding om Hanwha sin satsing i USA kan jo komma alt i helga i Sør-Korea. Med «sjefen» der pluss Biden til stades. Og med Rec som sikker framtidig leverandør av råstoff. Trur neppe haussinga av aksjen kan kallast overdreven!
manman01
26.05.2022 kl 11:55
9501
1.38%
http://pvinsights.com/indexWap.php
MAY 25, 2022
Current polysilicon spot price: US$33.85 per kg +1.1%
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
MAY 25, 2022
“..
As the Chinese yuan has stopped its depreciation and is gaining value against the US dollar, our global polysilicon spot price avaerage has increased this week although EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has remained unchanged at CNY259/kg (incl. 13% VAT) . However, it is expected that the Chinese spot price will rise next week because polysilicon demand continues to be higher than supply.
..”
End users in standoffs amid high module prices
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0525-PV-spot-price
MAY 25, 2022
https://m.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html
MAY 25, 2022
“..
Item High Low Avg Chg
Mono-Grade Polysilicon (RMB)
265 253 259 0.0 %
Polysilicon Outside China (USD)
35.638 33.244 34.564 1.31 %
..”
http://pvinsights.com/indexWap.php
MAY 25, 2022
Current polysilicon spot price: US$33.85 per kg +1.1%
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
MAY 25, 2022
“..
As the Chinese yuan has stopped its depreciation and is gaining value against the US dollar, our global polysilicon spot price avaerage has increased this week although EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has remained unchanged at CNY259/kg (incl. 13% VAT) . However, it is expected that the Chinese spot price will rise next week because polysilicon demand continues to be higher than supply.
..”
End users in standoffs amid high module prices
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0525-PV-spot-price
MAY 25, 2022
https://m.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html
MAY 25, 2022
“..
Item High Low Avg Chg
Mono-Grade Polysilicon (RMB)
265 253 259 0.0 %
Polysilicon Outside China (USD)
35.638 33.244 34.564 1.31 %
..”
"Polysilicon demand continues to be higher than supply"
For de som ikke ser skogen for trær bør vurdere nye briller hvis de ennå ikke forstår for en unik posisjon rec er i
For de som ikke ser skogen for trær bør vurdere nye briller hvis de ennå ikke forstår for en unik posisjon rec er i
velkjent
26.05.2022 kl 12:36
9377
Kan dere som følger REC døgnet rundt si noe om nåværende spotpriser og etterspørsel vil ha betydning for resultatet i 1Q/22, eller selger RECsil på gamle langtidskontrakter?
Butte skulle reforhandle kontraktene så jeg regner med at prisen vil slå inn allerede på Q1 22 resultate. Anyone?
Stabukk
26.05.2022 kl 14:12
9100
Høg etterspørsel etter polysilicon er vel først og fremst frå Kina? Men oppstart av wafer-produksjon i USA og andre land er på trappene. Så styret i Rec burde vel også sjå at Rec er i ein unik posisjon, og varsla restart av ML for å sikra seg framtidige poly-kundar? Prisane ser jo ut til å halda seg oppe fleire år framover. Og i ein startfase bør Rec kunna produsera for lager.
manman01
27.05.2022 kl 13:58
8588
Artikel fra infolink Group blev tilgængelig
“..
In the upstream, polysilicon supply remains short, as disproportion with demand persists. The spot market sees polysilicon shortage, and thus grim order deliveries. Supply chain disruptions have yet to get effective relief. Buyers and sellers are still caught in deadlocks.
Trading prices for mono-grade polysilicon advance further, coming in at RMB 255-260/kg, whilst recycled polysilicon scrap is traded at RMB 258-266/kg slightly higher. Polysilicon from outside of China enjoys premiums.
Production volume has increased 16% this month, compared with levels in January. Monthly production volume may reach beyond 70,000 MT in June.
The upward price trend continues and will not end in the short term, given stronger end user demand and disproportionate supply-demand relationship caused by exceedingly fast capacity expansion of ingot facilities. Still, room for further advances in the high-price range narrow, as polysilicon production volume is likely to increase faster.
Differences between prices for polysilicon in China and overseas are set to enlarge, thanks to the latter’s characteristics, advantages, and seemingly rare production capacity increases in recent terms.
..”
“..
In the upstream, polysilicon supply remains short, as disproportion with demand persists. The spot market sees polysilicon shortage, and thus grim order deliveries. Supply chain disruptions have yet to get effective relief. Buyers and sellers are still caught in deadlocks.
Trading prices for mono-grade polysilicon advance further, coming in at RMB 255-260/kg, whilst recycled polysilicon scrap is traded at RMB 258-266/kg slightly higher. Polysilicon from outside of China enjoys premiums.
Production volume has increased 16% this month, compared with levels in January. Monthly production volume may reach beyond 70,000 MT in June.
The upward price trend continues and will not end in the short term, given stronger end user demand and disproportionate supply-demand relationship caused by exceedingly fast capacity expansion of ingot facilities. Still, room for further advances in the high-price range narrow, as polysilicon production volume is likely to increase faster.
Differences between prices for polysilicon in China and overseas are set to enlarge, thanks to the latter’s characteristics, advantages, and seemingly rare production capacity increases in recent terms.
..”
Redigert 27.05.2022 kl 13:59
Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
28.05.2022 kl 11:13
8348
Fra energytrend
“..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices remained sturdy this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations sitting at roughly RMB 259/kg. Polysilicon businesses have mostly signed their May orders, and a number of them are unable to provide shipment by having signed an excessive level of orders. Orders for June are scheduled for negotiation starting from next week. Owing to a confined increment of polysilicon and the surging demand for wafers, the excess demand of polysilicon will persist for the short term, and prices are likely to retain some extent of dynamics for inflation next week.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment of the polysilicon segment indicates that most polysilicon businesses are currently operating at full load. The domestic output of multi polysilicon for May is expected to be approximately 62.2K tons under a MoM growth of 7.2%, and the increase will mainly come from the expanded capacity of Yongxiang, Xinte, and Asia Silicon.
..”
“..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices remained sturdy this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations sitting at roughly RMB 259/kg. Polysilicon businesses have mostly signed their May orders, and a number of them are unable to provide shipment by having signed an excessive level of orders. Orders for June are scheduled for negotiation starting from next week. Owing to a confined increment of polysilicon and the surging demand for wafers, the excess demand of polysilicon will persist for the short term, and prices are likely to retain some extent of dynamics for inflation next week.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment of the polysilicon segment indicates that most polysilicon businesses are currently operating at full load. The domestic output of multi polysilicon for May is expected to be approximately 62.2K tons under a MoM growth of 7.2%, and the increase will mainly come from the expanded capacity of Yongxiang, Xinte, and Asia Silicon.
..”
manman01
31.05.2022 kl 11:19
8014
Mixed trends in polysilicon manufacturers’ first-quarter results
https://www.bernreuter.com/newsroom/polysilicon-news/article/mixed-trends-in-polysilicon-manufacturers-first-quarter-results/
MAY 30, 2022
“..
REC Silicon achieved a positive operating EBITDA margin of 10.3% after it was in the red for three consecutive quarters. The company’s small electronic-grade polysilicon and silane plant in Butte, Montana (USA) improved the EBITDA margin of its semiconductor materials business from 21.5% to 31% although the polysilicon sales volume dropped by 44% in the seasonally weak first quarter. After Hanwha Solutions and Hanwha Corporation completed the acquisition of a combined stake of 33.3% in the company in early May, REC Silicon has announced it will reopen its granular polysilicon and silane plant in Moses Lake, Washington in the fourth quarter of 2023 and ramp it up to 100% utilization by the end of 2024. The two Hanwha affiliates have proposed off-take contracts for the complete polysilicon and silane output in Moses Lake. Regarding the potential silane demand from manufacturers of silicon-containing battery anodes (in particular, Group14 Technologies and Sila Nanotechnologies), CEO James May said: “We will determine how to address that as time goes on.”
..”
https://www.bernreuter.com/newsroom/polysilicon-news/article/mixed-trends-in-polysilicon-manufacturers-first-quarter-results/
MAY 30, 2022
“..
REC Silicon achieved a positive operating EBITDA margin of 10.3% after it was in the red for three consecutive quarters. The company’s small electronic-grade polysilicon and silane plant in Butte, Montana (USA) improved the EBITDA margin of its semiconductor materials business from 21.5% to 31% although the polysilicon sales volume dropped by 44% in the seasonally weak first quarter. After Hanwha Solutions and Hanwha Corporation completed the acquisition of a combined stake of 33.3% in the company in early May, REC Silicon has announced it will reopen its granular polysilicon and silane plant in Moses Lake, Washington in the fourth quarter of 2023 and ramp it up to 100% utilization by the end of 2024. The two Hanwha affiliates have proposed off-take contracts for the complete polysilicon and silane output in Moses Lake. Regarding the potential silane demand from manufacturers of silicon-containing battery anodes (in particular, Group14 Technologies and Sila Nanotechnologies), CEO James May said: “We will determine how to address that as time goes on.”
..”
manman01
01.06.2022 kl 13:08
7486
Polysilicon (Per KG)2022/06/01 update Chg
Mono-Grade Polysilicon (RMB) 270 ( 2.32 % )
Polysilicon Outside China (USD) 36.513 ( 1.77 % )
https://www.energytrend.com/solar-price.html
"
..
Polysilicon prices remained sturdy this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations sitting at roughly RMB 259/kg. Polysilicon businesses have mostly signed their May orders, and a number of them are unable to provide shipment by having signed an excessive level of orders. Orders for June are scheduled for negotiation starting from next week. Owing to a confined increment of polysilicon and the surging demand for wafers, the excess demand of polysilicon will persist for the short term, and prices are likely to retain some extent of dynamics for inflation next week.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment of the polysilicon segment indicates that most polysilicon businesses are currently operating at full load. The domestic output of multi polysilicon for May is expected to be approximately 62.2K tons under a MoM growth of 7.2%, and the increase will mainly come from the expanded capacity of Yongxiang, Xinte, and Asia Silicon.
..
"
Mono-Grade Polysilicon (RMB) 270 ( 2.32 % )
Polysilicon Outside China (USD) 36.513 ( 1.77 % )
https://www.energytrend.com/solar-price.html
"
..
Polysilicon prices remained sturdy this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations sitting at roughly RMB 259/kg. Polysilicon businesses have mostly signed their May orders, and a number of them are unable to provide shipment by having signed an excessive level of orders. Orders for June are scheduled for negotiation starting from next week. Owing to a confined increment of polysilicon and the surging demand for wafers, the excess demand of polysilicon will persist for the short term, and prices are likely to retain some extent of dynamics for inflation next week.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment of the polysilicon segment indicates that most polysilicon businesses are currently operating at full load. The domestic output of multi polysilicon for May is expected to be approximately 62.2K tons under a MoM growth of 7.2%, and the increase will mainly come from the expanded capacity of Yongxiang, Xinte, and Asia Silicon.
..
"
Redigert 01.06.2022 kl 13:08
Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
01.06.2022 kl 14:59
7319
Current polysilicon spot price: US$34.55 per kg +2.1%
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
Last update: June 1, 2022
"
..
While the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan versus the US dollar seems to stabilize somewhat, EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has strongly increased from CNY259/kg last week to CNY265/kg (incl. 13% VAT), following the negotiations on June orders. Accordingly, our global polysilicon spot price average has risen by more than 2% this week.
..
"
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
Last update: June 1, 2022
"
..
While the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan versus the US dollar seems to stabilize somewhat, EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has strongly increased from CNY259/kg last week to CNY265/kg (incl. 13% VAT), following the negotiations on June orders. Accordingly, our global polysilicon spot price average has risen by more than 2% this week.
..
"
manman01
02.06.2022 kl 12:45
6990
Ceaseless polysilicon price hikes weigh on module production costs
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0601-PV-spot-price
JUNE 1, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices will advance further in June, after ceaseless hikes in the first half of this year.
The market is signing orders actively in recent terms. Long-term orders between major manufacturers receive some discounts amid polysilicon shortage, but median price keeps going up. Sporadic orders see prices stay elevated. Despite both pandemic and inland transportation in China showing signs of easing, excess polysilicon demand has yet to be resolved. Pressures continue to build for polysilicon buyers.
Trading prices for mono-grade polysilicon rise to RMB 259-266/kg, whilst recycled polysilicon scrap is traded at RMB 263-268/kg. Polysilicon outside of China enjoys premiums.
Some polysilicon manufacturers plan to commission new or modified production capacities by the end of the second quarter, but additions to actual production volumes will not instantly emerge. New capacities need three to four months to come online, boosting production volumes in the third quarter. Polysilicon prices can hardly decline in the short term provided that demand in the downstream sustains.
..
"
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0601-PV-spot-price
JUNE 1, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices will advance further in June, after ceaseless hikes in the first half of this year.
The market is signing orders actively in recent terms. Long-term orders between major manufacturers receive some discounts amid polysilicon shortage, but median price keeps going up. Sporadic orders see prices stay elevated. Despite both pandemic and inland transportation in China showing signs of easing, excess polysilicon demand has yet to be resolved. Pressures continue to build for polysilicon buyers.
Trading prices for mono-grade polysilicon rise to RMB 259-266/kg, whilst recycled polysilicon scrap is traded at RMB 263-268/kg. Polysilicon outside of China enjoys premiums.
Some polysilicon manufacturers plan to commission new or modified production capacities by the end of the second quarter, but additions to actual production volumes will not instantly emerge. New capacities need three to four months to come online, boosting production volumes in the third quarter. Polysilicon prices can hardly decline in the short term provided that demand in the downstream sustains.
..
"
manman01
08.06.2022 kl 13:14
6651
Current polysilicon spot price: US$34.79 per kg +0.7%
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
JUNE 8, 2022
"
..
While the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan versus the US dollar seems to stabilize somewhat, EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has increased from CNY265/kg last week to CNY267/kg (incl. 13% VAT), driving our global polysilicon spot price average further upward.
..
"
______
Polysilicon Resumes Inflation Tendency; Centralized PV Projects Expected to Recover by Actuation of Policies
https://www.energytrend.com/solar-price.html
JUNE 8, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon prices continued to rise this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations maintaining at roughly RMB 265/kg. Partial businesses started signing for June order this week, and some of them are temporarily out of available products having signed an excessive amount of orders in May under an unabated demand, which has slightly postponed their signing of June orders. This has exacerbated the short supply sentiment within the market, and the downstream sector has now amplified in purchase willingness by actively raising the corresponding prices in order to facilitate transactions. As a result, prices had continued to climb this week.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon segment indicates that the overall volume increment remains constrained due to postponement in the capacity expansion from individual businesses, despite a timely release of partial expanded capacity, and the overall supply of polysilicon is still unable to fulfill the market demand when wafer businesses of a higher operating rate are gradually releasing their expanded capacity. Simultaneously, Malaysia-based OCI has yet to operate at full load in June from having completed overhaul, while Germany-based Wacker has not resolved its polysilicon transportation, and will maintain on a low-level import. The short supply status of polysilicon will persist for the short term under a sufficient support from high prices.
..
"
______
Solar Spot Price
Unceasing polysilicon price hikes weigh on prices in midstream
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0608-PV-spot-price
JUNE 8, 2022
"
..
We will update spot price article on Thursday.
..
"
______
PV Grade PolySilicon + 0.62%
Last Update: 2022-06-08
http://pvinsights.com/
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
JUNE 8, 2022
"
..
While the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan versus the US dollar seems to stabilize somewhat, EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has increased from CNY265/kg last week to CNY267/kg (incl. 13% VAT), driving our global polysilicon spot price average further upward.
..
"
______
Polysilicon Resumes Inflation Tendency; Centralized PV Projects Expected to Recover by Actuation of Policies
https://www.energytrend.com/solar-price.html
JUNE 8, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon prices continued to rise this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations maintaining at roughly RMB 265/kg. Partial businesses started signing for June order this week, and some of them are temporarily out of available products having signed an excessive amount of orders in May under an unabated demand, which has slightly postponed their signing of June orders. This has exacerbated the short supply sentiment within the market, and the downstream sector has now amplified in purchase willingness by actively raising the corresponding prices in order to facilitate transactions. As a result, prices had continued to climb this week.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon segment indicates that the overall volume increment remains constrained due to postponement in the capacity expansion from individual businesses, despite a timely release of partial expanded capacity, and the overall supply of polysilicon is still unable to fulfill the market demand when wafer businesses of a higher operating rate are gradually releasing their expanded capacity. Simultaneously, Malaysia-based OCI has yet to operate at full load in June from having completed overhaul, while Germany-based Wacker has not resolved its polysilicon transportation, and will maintain on a low-level import. The short supply status of polysilicon will persist for the short term under a sufficient support from high prices.
..
"
______
Solar Spot Price
Unceasing polysilicon price hikes weigh on prices in midstream
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0608-PV-spot-price
JUNE 8, 2022
"
..
We will update spot price article on Thursday.
..
"
______
PV Grade PolySilicon + 0.62%
Last Update: 2022-06-08
http://pvinsights.com/
Redigert 08.06.2022 kl 13:14
Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
08.06.2022 kl 15:45
6476
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Polysilicon price exceeds $40/kg, another 5 GW of cell capacity comes online
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/06/08/chinese-pv-industry-brief-polysilicon-price-exceeds-40-kg-another-5-gw-of-cell-capacity-comes-online/
JUNE 8, 2022
"
..
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association reports that the price of polysilicon reached this week CNY 270 ($40.39)/kg — the highest level since 2011. The weekly average price was CNY 267/kg. The price hike is due to both difficult silicon metal supply and increasing market demand from the downstream business.
..
"
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/06/08/chinese-pv-industry-brief-polysilicon-price-exceeds-40-kg-another-5-gw-of-cell-capacity-comes-online/
JUNE 8, 2022
"
..
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association reports that the price of polysilicon reached this week CNY 270 ($40.39)/kg — the highest level since 2011. The weekly average price was CNY 267/kg. The price hike is due to both difficult silicon metal supply and increasing market demand from the downstream business.
..
"
manman01
09.06.2022 kl 12:27
6019
Fra infolink-group
"
..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices advance further. Long-term orders between major manufacturers receive some discounts amid polysilicon shortage, but median price keeps going up. Sporadic orders see prices stay elevated. Despite both pandemic and transportation logjam in China showing signs of easing, excess polysilicon demand has yet to be resolved. Pressures continue to build for polysilicon buyers, especially new ingot capacities in need of polysilicon to generate actual output.
Trading prices for mono-grade polysilicon rise to RMB 260-268/kg, whilst recycled polysilicon scrap is traded at RMB 263-270/kg. Polysilicon from outside of China enjoys premiums, with prices reaching beyond RMB 280/kg.
Some polysilicon manufacturers plan to commission new or modified production capacities by the end of the second quarter. But additions to actual production volumes are little, as new capacities need three to four months to come online, boosting production volumes in the third quarter. Doubled with changing U.S. policies, if end user demand sustains, polysilicon prices are not likely to drop in the short term. Even next year will not see evident decline.
..
"
"
..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices advance further. Long-term orders between major manufacturers receive some discounts amid polysilicon shortage, but median price keeps going up. Sporadic orders see prices stay elevated. Despite both pandemic and transportation logjam in China showing signs of easing, excess polysilicon demand has yet to be resolved. Pressures continue to build for polysilicon buyers, especially new ingot capacities in need of polysilicon to generate actual output.
Trading prices for mono-grade polysilicon rise to RMB 260-268/kg, whilst recycled polysilicon scrap is traded at RMB 263-270/kg. Polysilicon from outside of China enjoys premiums, with prices reaching beyond RMB 280/kg.
Some polysilicon manufacturers plan to commission new or modified production capacities by the end of the second quarter. But additions to actual production volumes are little, as new capacities need three to four months to come online, boosting production volumes in the third quarter. Doubled with changing U.S. policies, if end user demand sustains, polysilicon prices are not likely to drop in the short term. Even next year will not see evident decline.
..
"
manman01
09.06.2022 kl 12:29
6088
280 RMB/kg udenfor Kina, eller $42/kg
Det er jo fucking sindssygt.
Det er jo fucking sindssygt.
Redigert 09.06.2022 kl 12:29
Du må logge inn for å svare
Hehe/ ja - det er sykt høyt.
RECsi vil nok uansett ikke få en langtidskontrakt der oppe.
Med det sagt, så var Ulltveit-Moe tydelig på at hans investering i Polysilicon dels var motivert av at det både er svært dyrt og tar lang tid å bygge ny kapasitet.
Man kommer ikke unna at et anlegg ala Moses Lake tar 3 år å bygge… Når det først blir mangel på poly, så må man først ha masse kapital, og så være relativ sikre på at prisene holder seg, slik at investeringen er bærekraftig.
Det er en største fordelen RECsi har nå: anlegget er der, teknologien er verdensledende og gir minst karbonavtrykk og de kan operere anlegget.
Vel/ vel / vel💲💲
RECsi vil nok uansett ikke få en langtidskontrakt der oppe.
Med det sagt, så var Ulltveit-Moe tydelig på at hans investering i Polysilicon dels var motivert av at det både er svært dyrt og tar lang tid å bygge ny kapasitet.
Man kommer ikke unna at et anlegg ala Moses Lake tar 3 år å bygge… Når det først blir mangel på poly, så må man først ha masse kapital, og så være relativ sikre på at prisene holder seg, slik at investeringen er bærekraftig.
Det er en største fordelen RECsi har nå: anlegget er der, teknologien er verdensledende og gir minst karbonavtrykk og de kan operere anlegget.
Vel/ vel / vel💲💲
Redigert 09.06.2022 kl 12:39
Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
10.06.2022 kl 23:05
5772
PV Price Watch: Polysilicon prices to remain high on unfaltering demand and panic buying
https://www.pv-tech.org/pv-price-watch-polysilicon-prices-to-remain-high-on-unfaltering-demand-and-panic-buying/
JUNE 9, 2022
(alternativt: https://pastebin.com/wuxv8nyv)
"
..
Johannes Bernretuer of polysilicon research firm Bernreuter Research told PV Tech Premium that demand outpacing additional output from factories had coincided with a “tendency to hoarding and panic buying”, while new entrants to the solar wafer market were also strategically snapping up feedstock longer-term, itself acting as a drag to available supply.
As a result, there has been no softening in Q2 as might have been otherwise expected earlier this year.
Bernreuter added that there could be additional increases in Q3 as demand continues to outstrip supply, with significant new capacities only expected to ramp in Q4 and, more specifically, towards the end of this year.
“Prices will maybe drop more strongly in December – that will also depend on when and how quickly new entrants will start up,” Bernreuter said.
Xinte’s new facility in Inner Mongolia is expected to begin production from Q3 – earlier than anticipated – but while China’s Silicon Branch indicated this week that two facilities – Inner Mongolia Tongwei II and Leshan GCL – will ramp at the beginning of Q3, Bernretuer remains skeptical.
“I don’t believe that earlier start-ups in the third quarter will change the overall picture much as ramp-up will take time. The widespread expectation is now that polysilicon prices will remain high this year,” he said.
..
"
https://www.pv-tech.org/pv-price-watch-polysilicon-prices-to-remain-high-on-unfaltering-demand-and-panic-buying/
JUNE 9, 2022
(alternativt: https://pastebin.com/wuxv8nyv)
"
..
Johannes Bernretuer of polysilicon research firm Bernreuter Research told PV Tech Premium that demand outpacing additional output from factories had coincided with a “tendency to hoarding and panic buying”, while new entrants to the solar wafer market were also strategically snapping up feedstock longer-term, itself acting as a drag to available supply.
As a result, there has been no softening in Q2 as might have been otherwise expected earlier this year.
Bernreuter added that there could be additional increases in Q3 as demand continues to outstrip supply, with significant new capacities only expected to ramp in Q4 and, more specifically, towards the end of this year.
“Prices will maybe drop more strongly in December – that will also depend on when and how quickly new entrants will start up,” Bernreuter said.
Xinte’s new facility in Inner Mongolia is expected to begin production from Q3 – earlier than anticipated – but while China’s Silicon Branch indicated this week that two facilities – Inner Mongolia Tongwei II and Leshan GCL – will ramp at the beginning of Q3, Bernretuer remains skeptical.
“I don’t believe that earlier start-ups in the third quarter will change the overall picture much as ramp-up will take time. The widespread expectation is now that polysilicon prices will remain high this year,” he said.
..
"
Redigert 10.06.2022 kl 23:05
Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
15.06.2022 kl 11:49
5179
China’s Solar Industry Reels as Material Cost Nears Decade-High
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/china-s-solar-industry-reels-as-material-cost-nears-decade-high#xj4y7vzkg
JUNE 15, 2022
"
..
The cost of a key material for solar panels in China is nearing its highest level in a decade, squeezing profits even as companies ramp up production to meet the world’s growing renewable power needs.
The average price of the most expensive grade of polysilicon reached 268.5 yuan ($40) a kilogram on Wednesday, according to the China Silicon Industry Association. Last year, it soared threefold to as much as 272.2 yuan, the highest since 2011, as demand outran supply.
..
"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/china-s-solar-industry-reels-as-material-cost-nears-decade-high#xj4y7vzkg
JUNE 15, 2022
"
..
The cost of a key material for solar panels in China is nearing its highest level in a decade, squeezing profits even as companies ramp up production to meet the world’s growing renewable power needs.
The average price of the most expensive grade of polysilicon reached 268.5 yuan ($40) a kilogram on Wednesday, according to the China Silicon Industry Association. Last year, it soared threefold to as much as 272.2 yuan, the highest since 2011, as demand outran supply.
..
"
manman01
15.06.2022 kl 11:55
5158
Current polysilicon spot price: US$34.62 per kg -0.5%
Last update: June 15, 2022
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
Polysilicon (Per KG)2022/06/15 update
item High Low Avg Chg
Mono-Grade Polysilicon (RMB) 270 260 267 ( 0.0 % )
Polysilicon Outside China (USD) 36.044 33.423 34.723 ( -1.31 % )
https://www.energytrend.com/solar-price.html
"
..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices continued to rise this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations maintaining at roughly RMB 267/kg and are gradually approaching the high price point back in 2021. Most polysilicon businesses have signed for their June orders this week, and the volume of available orders for June has dropped marginally due to excessive signing, where individual orders have been signed until mid-July under the current excess demand status. The main reasons lie on the higher operating rate seen from the wafer segment, coupling with how the release of expanded capacity has amplified polysilicon demand, and that the currently restricted polysilicon output is unable to fulfill demand, which provides a support for an increment in polysilicon prices. Polysilicon prices are expected to climb sturdily during mid to late-June due to sporadic and urgent orders.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon segment indicates that most of the new capacity added previously has now attained a full load status. Expanded polysilicon capacity from GCL (Leshan), Xinte Energy (Baotou), and Tongwei (Inner Mongolia) is going to commence production in the third quarter, and is scheduled to arrive at the targeted level during the fourth quarter at the earliest after taking into account the time required for capacity increment. The increase of polysilicon will be restricted for the third quarter, and the excess demand status will persist if the wafer segment is still maintaining a higher operating rate that would provide dynamics for price increases.
..
"
Last update: June 15, 2022
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
Polysilicon (Per KG)2022/06/15 update
item High Low Avg Chg
Mono-Grade Polysilicon (RMB) 270 260 267 ( 0.0 % )
Polysilicon Outside China (USD) 36.044 33.423 34.723 ( -1.31 % )
https://www.energytrend.com/solar-price.html
"
..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices continued to rise this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations maintaining at roughly RMB 267/kg and are gradually approaching the high price point back in 2021. Most polysilicon businesses have signed for their June orders this week, and the volume of available orders for June has dropped marginally due to excessive signing, where individual orders have been signed until mid-July under the current excess demand status. The main reasons lie on the higher operating rate seen from the wafer segment, coupling with how the release of expanded capacity has amplified polysilicon demand, and that the currently restricted polysilicon output is unable to fulfill demand, which provides a support for an increment in polysilicon prices. Polysilicon prices are expected to climb sturdily during mid to late-June due to sporadic and urgent orders.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon segment indicates that most of the new capacity added previously has now attained a full load status. Expanded polysilicon capacity from GCL (Leshan), Xinte Energy (Baotou), and Tongwei (Inner Mongolia) is going to commence production in the third quarter, and is scheduled to arrive at the targeted level during the fourth quarter at the earliest after taking into account the time required for capacity increment. The increase of polysilicon will be restricted for the third quarter, and the excess demand status will persist if the wafer segment is still maintaining a higher operating rate that would provide dynamics for price increases.
..
"
Redigert 15.06.2022 kl 12:10
Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
16.06.2022 kl 17:56
4802
Cell prices rise on short supply as upstream shortage persists
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0615-PV-spot-price
JUNE 16, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon
Short supply from the upstream shows no sign of easing. Prices at which orders are signed keep rising, coming in at RMB 262-268/kg for mono-grade polysilicon, and RMB 265-271/kg for recycled polysilicon scraps. Adding to relentless price hikes, disproportionate supply-demand relationship persists. Toiled with various challenges, such as supply and delivery issues, polysilicon and wafer sectors manage to address their problems.
In China, the pandemic wanes by mid-June, whilst inland transportation logjams ease. Faced with drawn-out shortages, polysilicon buyers see pressures building, especially new ingot capacities in need of polysilicon to generate actual output by the second half of the year. Some ingot companies resort to other business models and forms of partnership with polysilicon manufacturers. As of the second quarter, inventories remain low and have yet to build up in the upstream.
Polysilicon price can hardly drop in recent terms and even the second half of the year, as end user demand sustains.
..
"
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0615-PV-spot-price
JUNE 16, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon
Short supply from the upstream shows no sign of easing. Prices at which orders are signed keep rising, coming in at RMB 262-268/kg for mono-grade polysilicon, and RMB 265-271/kg for recycled polysilicon scraps. Adding to relentless price hikes, disproportionate supply-demand relationship persists. Toiled with various challenges, such as supply and delivery issues, polysilicon and wafer sectors manage to address their problems.
In China, the pandemic wanes by mid-June, whilst inland transportation logjams ease. Faced with drawn-out shortages, polysilicon buyers see pressures building, especially new ingot capacities in need of polysilicon to generate actual output by the second half of the year. Some ingot companies resort to other business models and forms of partnership with polysilicon manufacturers. As of the second quarter, inventories remain low and have yet to build up in the upstream.
Polysilicon price can hardly drop in recent terms and even the second half of the year, as end user demand sustains.
..
"
manman01
19.06.2022 kl 13:56
4415
Trichlorosilane, why is it so hot?
https://inf.news/ne/economy/8a831054b1c576a7db678e9ee58fa801.html
JUNE 19, 2022
“..
"Trichlorosilane is an indispensable core raw material in the production process of polysilicon, and it is of great significance to ensure the smooth expansion and production of polysilicon enterprises." An industry insider said in an interview with the media, "In the start-up stage, every polysilicon manufacturer To add 1 ton of polysilicon production capacity, about 0.2 tons of trichlorosilane needs to be invested at one time to replenish the liquid level and cleaning system. In the production stage, polysilicon manufacturers need to consume 0.3~0.5 tons of trichlorosilane to supplement each 1 ton of polysilicon produced. Loss of the circulatory system."
In other words, trichlorosilane will also be in short supply.
In this regard, Sinolink Securities deeply agrees: "The core downstream of trichlorosilane is polysilicon, which is an essential raw material in its production. The mismatch between supply and demand of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane is difficult to alleviate in the short and medium term, and it continues to be high in the industry. In a booming state, enterprises with photovoltaic-grade trichlorosilane production capacity will fully benefit, and domestic polysilicon enterprises are expanding rapidly under the background of carbon neutrality, and the demand for photovoltaic-grade trichlorosilane will usher in an explosive period."
In fact, the shortage of trichlorosilane is also reflected in the price.
In 2022, the price of industrial-grade trichlorosilane fluctuated at 21,000 yuan/ton, while the price of photovoltaic-grade trichlorosilane jumped. The price in March was still 18,000 yuan/ton, and it changed in May. into 27,000 yuan / ton.
..”
https://inf.news/ne/economy/8a831054b1c576a7db678e9ee58fa801.html
JUNE 19, 2022
“..
"Trichlorosilane is an indispensable core raw material in the production process of polysilicon, and it is of great significance to ensure the smooth expansion and production of polysilicon enterprises." An industry insider said in an interview with the media, "In the start-up stage, every polysilicon manufacturer To add 1 ton of polysilicon production capacity, about 0.2 tons of trichlorosilane needs to be invested at one time to replenish the liquid level and cleaning system. In the production stage, polysilicon manufacturers need to consume 0.3~0.5 tons of trichlorosilane to supplement each 1 ton of polysilicon produced. Loss of the circulatory system."
In other words, trichlorosilane will also be in short supply.
In this regard, Sinolink Securities deeply agrees: "The core downstream of trichlorosilane is polysilicon, which is an essential raw material in its production. The mismatch between supply and demand of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane is difficult to alleviate in the short and medium term, and it continues to be high in the industry. In a booming state, enterprises with photovoltaic-grade trichlorosilane production capacity will fully benefit, and domestic polysilicon enterprises are expanding rapidly under the background of carbon neutrality, and the demand for photovoltaic-grade trichlorosilane will usher in an explosive period."
In fact, the shortage of trichlorosilane is also reflected in the price.
In 2022, the price of industrial-grade trichlorosilane fluctuated at 21,000 yuan/ton, while the price of photovoltaic-grade trichlorosilane jumped. The price in March was still 18,000 yuan/ton, and it changed in May. into 27,000 yuan / ton.
..”
Redigert 19.06.2022 kl 13:57
Du må logge inn for å svare
manman01
20.06.2022 kl 13:09
3941
Trichlorosilane Market to Surpass USD 11,068 Mn by 2030 Exclusive Report By Acumen Research and Consulting
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/06/19/2465016/0/en/Trichlorosilane-Market-to-Surpass-USD-11-068-Mn-by-2030-Exclusive-Report-By-Acumen-Research-and-Consulting.html
JUNE 19, 2022
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/06/19/2465016/0/en/Trichlorosilane-Market-to-Surpass-USD-11-068-Mn-by-2030-Exclusive-Report-By-Acumen-Research-and-Consulting.html
JUNE 19, 2022
manman01
23.06.2022 kl 19:48
3505
beklager fraværet, har haft nogle turbulente dage
lidt læsning er dog på sin plads - god fornøjelse
PV Grade PolySilicon (9N/9N+) 36.350 22.400 33.150 0.59 1.81%
Last Update: 2022-06-22
http://pvinsights.com/
_______
New Wave of Inflation Fermenting within the Industry Chain as Constrained Polysilicon Provision Persists
https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20220623-29069.html
JUNE 23, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices continued to surge under a slightly expanded degree this week, where mono-Si dense materials were quoted at a mainstream price of RMB 263-275/kg, while mono-Si compound feedings were quotes at a mainstream price of RMB 265-278/kg, with an average concluded price of RMB 271-273/kg. Various polysilicon businesses had focused on executing reminding orders this week, where partial sporadic and urgent orders are continuously rising in prices.
An observation on the production and operation status of the polysilicon segment indicates that individual businesses were affected in capacity this week due to incidents or power restrictions. Domestic polysilicon production is expected to fall below anticipation during June, which exacerbates the constrained status of polysilicon provision, and the material prices for partial orders may continue to rise. In addition, polysilicon businesses in Xinjiang are also starting their overhaul in July due to the particular incident this time.
Looking ahead to Q3, the continuous release of wafer capacity and the relatively high profitability will facilitate continuous robustness in polysilicon procurement. For the supply end, Tongwei, Xinte, and GCL-Poly are going to release new capacity at the end of Q3, though the actual volume will be exceedingly limited considering how capacity increment takes up 1-2 quarters, while the amplified plans in temporary overhaul have also aggravated the severely insufficient supply of polysilicon. Polysilicon prices will remain on the ascending trajectory, and overall structure in supply and demand will stay on the tighter end throughout 2022.
..
"
____
Market awaits future wafer price trends
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0622-PV-spot-price
JUNE 22, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon
Prices at which polysilicon orders are signed keep rising amid short supply, coming in at RMB 265-270/kg for mono-grade polysilicon, and RMB 268-275/kg for recycled polysilicon scraps. As of the end of the second quarter, ceaseless price hikes seem innocuous to the robust demand from the wafer sector. Wafer manufacturers fail to run at full capacity but manage to keep relatively high utilization rates.
Seeing rigorous order signing activities, sellers and buyers are still faced with the conundrum of arranging lead time and delivery schedules, as polysilicon shortage shows no sign of easing.
To add to that, an accident on June 16 forced leading polysilicon manufacturers to cease production for line inspections, tapping the brake on the already slow increase of polysilicon supply.
In the short term, the growth of polysilicon supply will face hurdles, as northern China welcomes warmer weather, and some polysilicon makers undergo line inspections.
All eyes are on the progress of new polysilicon production capacities. Some projects will be commissioned in July and possibly stanch the loss caused by line inspections. Still, the shortage persists. Polysilicon buyers see pressure building, especially new ingot capacities in need of polysilicon to generate actual output by the second half of the year. Some ingot companies resort to alternative business models and forms of partnership with polysilicon manufacturers.
..
"
_____
Current polysilicon spot price: US$35.32 per kg +2.0%
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
JUNE 22, 2022
"
..
This week the global polysilicon spot price average has seen another leap. EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has strongly increased from CNY267/kg last week to CNY272/kg (incl. 13% VAT).
..
"
lidt læsning er dog på sin plads - god fornøjelse
PV Grade PolySilicon (9N/9N+) 36.350 22.400 33.150 0.59 1.81%
Last Update: 2022-06-22
http://pvinsights.com/
_______
New Wave of Inflation Fermenting within the Industry Chain as Constrained Polysilicon Provision Persists
https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20220623-29069.html
JUNE 23, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices continued to surge under a slightly expanded degree this week, where mono-Si dense materials were quoted at a mainstream price of RMB 263-275/kg, while mono-Si compound feedings were quotes at a mainstream price of RMB 265-278/kg, with an average concluded price of RMB 271-273/kg. Various polysilicon businesses had focused on executing reminding orders this week, where partial sporadic and urgent orders are continuously rising in prices.
An observation on the production and operation status of the polysilicon segment indicates that individual businesses were affected in capacity this week due to incidents or power restrictions. Domestic polysilicon production is expected to fall below anticipation during June, which exacerbates the constrained status of polysilicon provision, and the material prices for partial orders may continue to rise. In addition, polysilicon businesses in Xinjiang are also starting their overhaul in July due to the particular incident this time.
Looking ahead to Q3, the continuous release of wafer capacity and the relatively high profitability will facilitate continuous robustness in polysilicon procurement. For the supply end, Tongwei, Xinte, and GCL-Poly are going to release new capacity at the end of Q3, though the actual volume will be exceedingly limited considering how capacity increment takes up 1-2 quarters, while the amplified plans in temporary overhaul have also aggravated the severely insufficient supply of polysilicon. Polysilicon prices will remain on the ascending trajectory, and overall structure in supply and demand will stay on the tighter end throughout 2022.
..
"
____
Market awaits future wafer price trends
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2022-0622-PV-spot-price
JUNE 22, 2022
"
..
Polysilicon
Prices at which polysilicon orders are signed keep rising amid short supply, coming in at RMB 265-270/kg for mono-grade polysilicon, and RMB 268-275/kg for recycled polysilicon scraps. As of the end of the second quarter, ceaseless price hikes seem innocuous to the robust demand from the wafer sector. Wafer manufacturers fail to run at full capacity but manage to keep relatively high utilization rates.
Seeing rigorous order signing activities, sellers and buyers are still faced with the conundrum of arranging lead time and delivery schedules, as polysilicon shortage shows no sign of easing.
To add to that, an accident on June 16 forced leading polysilicon manufacturers to cease production for line inspections, tapping the brake on the already slow increase of polysilicon supply.
In the short term, the growth of polysilicon supply will face hurdles, as northern China welcomes warmer weather, and some polysilicon makers undergo line inspections.
All eyes are on the progress of new polysilicon production capacities. Some projects will be commissioned in July and possibly stanch the loss caused by line inspections. Still, the shortage persists. Polysilicon buyers see pressure building, especially new ingot capacities in need of polysilicon to generate actual output by the second half of the year. Some ingot companies resort to alternative business models and forms of partnership with polysilicon manufacturers.
..
"
_____
Current polysilicon spot price: US$35.32 per kg +2.0%
https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/
JUNE 22, 2022
"
..
This week the global polysilicon spot price average has seen another leap. EnergyTrend’s spot price index of mono-grade polysilicon in China has strongly increased from CNY267/kg last week to CNY272/kg (incl. 13% VAT).
..
"
manman01
25.06.2022 kl 21:25
3088
‘Ceaseless’ polysilicon price rises in China as production falls below forecasts
https://www.pv-tech.org/ceaseless-polysilicon-price-rises-in-china-as-production-falls-below-forecasts/
JUNE 23, 2022
"
..
As PV Tech Premium reported earlier this month, the sustained price rises have defied projections that pricing would decline as more capacity comes onstream.
Research published yesterday by industry analyst PV InfoLink noted that there have been “ceaseless price hikes” in Q2, as it said the polysilicon shortage “shows no sign of easing”.
This year has seen polysilicon producers including Tongwei, Zhonghuan Semiconductor (TZS) and Daqo New Energy announce plans to scale up production, although Daqo effectively sold out its inventory for 2022 after signing a long-term supply deal.
Chase said that polysilicon prices should fall in Q4 of this year as more production capacity comes online.
..
"
https://www.pv-tech.org/ceaseless-polysilicon-price-rises-in-china-as-production-falls-below-forecasts/
JUNE 23, 2022
"
..
As PV Tech Premium reported earlier this month, the sustained price rises have defied projections that pricing would decline as more capacity comes onstream.
Research published yesterday by industry analyst PV InfoLink noted that there have been “ceaseless price hikes” in Q2, as it said the polysilicon shortage “shows no sign of easing”.
This year has seen polysilicon producers including Tongwei, Zhonghuan Semiconductor (TZS) and Daqo New Energy announce plans to scale up production, although Daqo effectively sold out its inventory for 2022 after signing a long-term supply deal.
Chase said that polysilicon prices should fall in Q4 of this year as more production capacity comes online.
..
"
manman01
25.06.2022 kl 21:25
3101
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Polysilicon prices hit high of $41.80/kg
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/06/24/chinese-pv-industry-brief-polysilicon-prices-hit-high-of-41-80-kg/
JUNE 24, 2022
"
..
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said the price of polysilicon reached CNY 280/kg this week – the highest level ever recorded. The weekly average price was CNY 273/kg. The increase was mainly due to a reduction in production output of around 3,500 metric tons (MT). The association said other factories will also start seasonal maintenance in July, and this will continue to weigh on supply and drive up prices.
..
"
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/06/24/chinese-pv-industry-brief-polysilicon-prices-hit-high-of-41-80-kg/
JUNE 24, 2022
"
..
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said the price of polysilicon reached CNY 280/kg this week – the highest level ever recorded. The weekly average price was CNY 273/kg. The increase was mainly due to a reduction in production output of around 3,500 metric tons (MT). The association said other factories will also start seasonal maintenance in July, and this will continue to weigh on supply and drive up prices.
..
"