Det har du nok helt rett i.

Eller evt kjøpt litt i WEN. De har god kontantstrøm nesten 300 mill netto kapital, gir ca 10% utbytte inkl tilbakekjøp og prises til bare 470 mill. Er ikke lenge før de har like mye kontanter som mcap og samtidig betaler gode utbytter.

Det fleste på denne tråden har nok PNOR. QEC i tillegg til Zenith.
ROB-3 blir mest sannsynlig forsinket. Estimater må tas med en neve salt.

Lucera hadde forventet oppstart i mai men det er ikke kommet noe meldning om det.
Det er heller ikke kommet noe mere info om side-track boring av EZZ-18.
Hva skjer med SLK lisensen som går ut desember ?
Lykkes Zenith med å få 50 bod ut av ROB-1 ?
..
..
Det eneste som vi vet med sikkerhet ... mye ørken sand i maskineriet og kjepper i hullene

For å sette ting litt i perspektiv. Hvor mye tror dere bare Johan Sverdrup feltet i nordsjøen produserer hver dag?

Ser på en annen tråd at det er en Italiensk delegasjon på ministernivå i Kongo som omhandler energi. Dette med samtaler på høyest mulig nivå er ofte avgjørende for å få fortgang i prosesser i Afrikanske land, skal ikke se bort i fra at dette kan gagne zena

Fakevenues - reading your posts about Zenith over the last month or so it seems to me that you are losing faith in the company. Is this correct? If it is, I can certainly understand your frustration about the lack of news but \i believe that we are going to see good times in the share price very soon. There is simply too much going on in the background for something major not to give us a massive uplift in the near future.

Think of the things that we currently have underway or are expecting:

Tunisia (currently the least exciting but biggest producing asset).

1. Oil production in Tunisia valued currently at approx. $13 million per annum.

2. Fully funded well (ROB-3) being drilled in November targeting production of 200bopd

3. Money in the bank for the two Ezzaouia sidetracks which are targeting production of 500 bopd between them (50% net to Zenith). Admittedly I cannot see this happening until after the Rob-3 drill, so Q4 2022 at the earliest

Italy (our least valued asset, but one that still produces significant cash)

1. Current revenue from these assets is approx. €364,000 per month net (€4,375,000 per annum) – see my post from earlier today for calculations. However, this is likely to go up considerably as we approach winter. This production alone could possibly generate €6 million+ Euros over the course of the next 12 months.

2. We have the reactivation of the San Andrea concession in Italy which should be complete by Q4 this year and should generate a further €600,000 per annum.

3. We also know that the company have other, as yet un-detailed plans as to how to increase production from the Torrente Concession where they pan to drill a development well.

Tilapia (the asset that is in the process of being acquired)

1. Tilapia, assuming that we get it, is our potentially company-changing asset. With only a small sidetrack required to finish the well that AAOG started and potentially being online up to 5,000 bopd (as mentioned by AAOG in their original listing prospectus) then it should not take long from being granted the license to being able to see if the well will be successful.

2. With the revenue coming in from Tunisia and Italy then finding the $5 million required to complete the drill should not be an issue. We should already have this money in the bank.


3. Of course the big question is when the T2 license will be granted. We have had complete radio-silence on this since the last investor conference call when Andrea said that he was “still supremely confident that we will complete this transaction. It has taken longer than has been expected but the consolation on this is we can be awarded with more than just Tilapia”. I think that details on the progress here and what has been happening in the background is something I would like expanded on during the conference call as well as some details on what the other license/licenses that we are likely to awarded with could actually be. I would also like some details of why this acquisition is taking so long.

4. With Tilapia we also have the $5.7 million owed to us by the SNPC which remains owed whether or not the T2 license is granted and we also have the court case against the SNP which is going through the French courts. Andrea suggested in the November 2021 conference call that the combined value of this “debt” could total $10 million. Again, this is something that I would like an update on at the next ICC in August.


Other Acquisitions

1. Andrea Cattaneo’s chief skill is in deal-making and we know that he is always looking out for new acquisitions. As I have said here many times, with no projects being drilled in Tunisia or Italy until Q4 this year, I cannot believe that he is just sitting around waiting for the Congolese government to decide about Tilapia.

2. We know from the February ICC that Zenith were in negotiations for the acquisition of two assets in new countries that could allow the company to increase it’s market cap by many multiples from the current price. I would like a further update on this as the ICC but I am absolutely positive that Zenith must be in the process of acquiring new assets.

3. The benefit of new assets in new countries would be to take the pressure away from us all waiting for T2 to be granted and would also allow us something to spend the cash that the company is generating on. I don’t know about anyone else, but the thing that I like about Tilapia is the fact that it could potentially produce 5,000 bopd (50% net to Zenith) and if we can acquire another asset that does the same in a different jurisdiction then I would be equally happy about that (with Tilapia still coming of course.

4. Once we get any new significant asset then I think that with the existing revenues from Tunisia and Italy we will be able to both acquire and develop these via debt and the share price will rocket.

So Fakevenues, these are what I see as the positives point about Zenith are at the moment. I would be interested to hear from you about what you think are the negatives.

Er vi heldig kan det gavne Zenith men en bør ikke skru opp forventingene for mye.

Ett besøk på ministernivå er motivert av dagens energi krise og for å gi langt
større italiensk virksomhet dra hjelp.

Å få fart på energi produksjon tar tid.

Skal noe gjøres raskt så må en montere solcelle paneler og mindre vind turbiner på egen eiendom.
Kjøpte ytterligere noen solcelle paneler for egen produksjon av strøm.
Installert og satt i produksjon på under 30 minutter.

@Marketgunsling
I am losing faith since there are only dates ahead, while one after another set date has been passed in silence.
Like the Cash is the coin, and the PMs (RNS) are the paper cups.

I agree with you that there is a lot in the pipeline, but it is just being stretched in silence

Er det kina solceller du monterer opp og kobler på huset? Har du en link til hvordan du gjør dette 😜

https://e24.no/olje-og-energi/i/bGRmpg/venter-hoeye-stroempriser-uavhengig-av-gassroer-dette-kan-bli-stygt

Få gang på økt strømproduksjon i Italia.

Utrolig hvor lavt ZENA er priset.

Den som venter på noe godt…..

https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/zenith-energy-drilling-rig-congo/

……..venter inn i evigheten x 10.

Hva var meningen med å linke til den gamle artikkelen?

Den forteller om den sinnsyke muligheten som i disse tider kan materialisere seg.. nå trenger man att alle blir med og får opp produksjonen av olje.. tenker vi bør reflektere litt på det..

https://energycapitalpower.com/drc-increases-blocks-offer-licensing-round/

Har dette noe med Tilapia å gjøre? Nå spør jeg kanskje dumt, men min forståelse av dette er at det er leteblokker, er ikke Tilapia allerede påvist? Hvordan vet man at Tilapia er en av lisensene isåfall?

Feil land. Dette gjelder Den Demokratiske Republikken Kongo. Tilapia ligger i Republikken Kongo. Også kalt Kongo Brazzaville.

Takker, den så ikke jeg ved første øyekast.

Kongo er jo i utgangspunktet et land rikt på ressurser. Gull, olje og godt land for landbruk. God tilgang på vann. Om politikerne hadde vært mer opptatt av landets beste og mindre opptatt av å fylle lommene med bestikkelser så hadde landet hatt en lysende fremtid.

Fakevenues – I understand your point and I too am frustrated by the waiting around especially for Tilapia, but I cannot think what else the company can do to speed this process up. This is the consequence of being involved in an African country like Congo . It has the advantage that a small company like Zenith can acquire a potentially very valuable asset like Tilapia but it has the disadvantage that the whole governmental process is glacial.

We have seen the same thing in Tunisia with the attempt to get a formal transfer of KUFPEC’s 22.5% of SLK. The bureaucracy is very slow in getting legal matters completed. Fortunately, in Tunisia we have found ways around this by acquiring the holding companies as we did with Robanna, Ezzaouia and, eventually, the CNPC share of SLK. However, we do not have this choice in Congo where it is only the government that can grant a new license.

However, having said all of this I think that the company is currently in a great position even while we are waiting for Tilapia. As I said yesterday we have an operational net income of anywhere between $14 million (minimum) to $20 million (maximum) coming in from our Tunisian assets and so the company is not just operationally profitable, but also cash-rich.

As I have said before, in my opinion the really important thing about this revenue is that it will allow the company to service a significant amount of debt (well over $20 million at a 4 year timeframe in my opinion). This means that not only would we be able to use debt as opposed to equity to develop Tilapia (which is estimated to cost $5 million) but we would also be able to use debt to fund the acquisition and development of new assets. I was always slightly confused about how Zenith intended to fund the $20 million it would have required to acquire their stake in OML141 but with revenues at the levels that they are currently then this amount of debt would be easy to service.

If you now consider that Zenith would be able to shop in a market to acquire assets up to about $15-20 million in value then you can easily see that it is a massive change from a company development point of view. It also makes sense of AC’s claim from the last investor presentation where he said that he was in negotiations for two different assets that would each allow Zenith to increase it’s market cap by as much as 10-15 times. Personally, I think that those levels may be a bit high but I think that with the right asset developed to production that 5-10 times the current market cap is certainly possible. We also know that there are licenses available in Nigeria where production of up to 10,000 bopd is a very realistic possibility, and that Zenith have the necessary connections out there since the aborted marginal oil fields bids. He also said in the last ICC that “We are already in negotiation of 5-6 Nigerian deals” so I am expecting that we will hopefully hear news about one of these this summer.

As I said at the beginning of this post, I too am frustrated at the waiting around for Tilapia but I do hope that soon we spread our wings a little and acquire a new asset in a different juridcition that can run alongside Tilapia and potentially be even bigger – all serviced with debt.

I believe that this can happen and that it will happen and that once it does happen then the share price will leap up to many multiples of what it is today. It will be then that we, as long-term-shareholders will begin to be truly rewarded for our investment.

How can you be certain that KUFPEC's 22.5% stake in SLK is still on the table?

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/536863

Extension of longstop date for completing the transaction was set to the 31. october 2021. After this the market has not been updated on how things are progressing. This is in my book a red flag. Since there is a longstop date in place and we have surpassed this. It does not make logical sense that if they extended the longstop date that this was not communicated to the market. The only guarantee I have after being invested here for several years is that they do send an RNS everytime something gets done. So in my opinion it is better to think of the Kufpec stake in SLK as something that will not happen.

I do agree with you when it comes to Tilapia. There is nothing the company can do other than develop further in other areas and work as proactively as possible to secure the licence in Congo. The mistake Zenith has done regarding Tilapia is very often to try and create buzz around Tilapia. Like it is right around the corner. On numerous occations the company has given strong indication that Tilapia is right around the corner. This is a very bad tactic because when it does not happen you loose credibility in the market. After these comments regarding Tilapia has been made, they go out in an investor call and blame African bureaucracy. In my opinion this is the wrong way to go about things because the people creating time pressure is Zenith itself when they give the impression that the deal is right around the corner.

Zenith is now an oil producing company and at these levels we have a great amount of cash at hand. This will surley open up new opportunities to increase growth. So on this point I also agree with you.

The main problem for me is the fact that the company is not producing shareholder value like its peers. You can look at any other oiler in Oslo (almost) and you will end up with positive numbers since the oil price started to run. This has not happened in Zeniths case, this is something people should view quite seriously because the leadership of the company is responsible for this. I am also starting to loose faith for this reason. The company is not able to convince the markets its good value for invested capital. This is the best indication to see how Zenith is viewed in the market.

I am still invested but I am looking closely at the situation.

MarketGunsling – I have backed up my opinions with links, and in the example of SLK, ZENA claimed long after, CCH (documented) had informed them of rejection of the initial takeover of SLK, that they were waiting for the takeover approval. So, in that case it should suggest that ZENA deliberately held back information from the market?
CCH has neither (as in the case of Robbana & El Bibane) admitted any awareness of change in superior ownership of any of the SLK shares.
ZENA use to publish lifting of oil, not receival of payment. In this case, AC has informed the market of a minimum of 52K barrels of oil would be lifted, ahead in time. The actual lifting amount and barrel price would be very much appreciated by the shareholders/market in general to know. As ZENA won’t publish ‘bad’ news, I assume that there has not been any lifting to the benefit of ZENA, yet?
Again - I admit that there is a huge and exciting pipeline, but there are good reasons for questioning events also.

Pessimist - In my opinion the KUFPEC deal is no longer on the table and we will never get it. I think that KUFPEC changed their minds when the oil price started to go up so much and decided to hold onto it. I do agree with you that we need to be updated on this. I will add it to my (ever growing) list of questions that I have for the Investor's Conference Call.

On Tilapia – I agree that the company have created pressure on themselves by repeatedly saying in conference calls that they think that the granting of the license is close. However, giving AC the benefit of the doubt, I think that he has genuinely believed that this was the case when they have said it and has then been let down by the timescales as much as any of us. I think that he has learned his lesson on this though as it is noticeable in the last conference call he did not give any expected timescales but just said that “still supremely confident that we will complete this transaction”.

I think the real issue is that if investors ask when he thinks that Tilapia will be finalised and he just says “I don’t know” even if he thinks that it will be soon then he would be crucified for this too. So he is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. It is an awkward situation to be in, especially when it appears that nobody (including the Congolese govt) seem to really know when this will be finalised. We do know that Africa is notorious for delays though.

Re peer comparison shareholder value – I completely agree. It is extremely frustrating that the wider market refuses to recognise the value that is currently represented in Zenith Energy simply due to the cash that the company’s producing assets are already generating. Personally I think that this is both unfair and short-sighted. However, I can completely understand why the market currently refuses to put any premium value on Tilapia as we were announced as the successful bidder for the license over 18 months ago and it still hasn’t been granted yet. I expect a massive re-rate of Zenith on this announcement but I do not expect any significant share price climb until this happens or we announce the acquisition of another asset of similar potential.

The real problem with Zenith at the moment is that, although they generate significant amounts of money and are brilliant for the continued running and development of the business they are simply not sexy from an investor’s point of view. For a small cap company the thing that drives the share price up is:

a) Acquisition of new assets with significant upside potential.
b) Drilling wells in existing assets with a view to massively increasing oil production.

These are the things that get investors excited and have the potential to massively increase the share price. Imagine for a second the excitement that would be around Zenith firstly after we acquired the T2 license and then secondly as we went into the drilling of the existing well targeting something between 1,000 – 5,000 bopd if it was successful. With opex costs as little as $5 per barrle (according to the AAOG AIM admission document) then this would mean that Zenith (with 50% of that production) could have a net annual revenue from Tilapia of $17,885,000 - $89,000,000 from Tilapia alone. Obviously this would more likely be at the lower end rather than the higher end but you can see why the market would rightly get excited about it.

As far as I am concerned at the moment Zenith have developed for an almost bust company when they came out of Azerbaijan to once that has built a very stable business with good cash flow revenues and a stable foundation to build up to become a much bigger operation. However, they need to get a marquee acquisition with significant development potential in order to move on from being a $17 million market cap company to a $100+ million market cap company. Until they announce the acquisition of such an asset I think the share price will remain roughly where it is. It may go up or down by 20% but there will be no major movement, However, if they are able to announce Tilapia or a Tilapia-style acquisition then I believe that the revenue base they have built in Tunisia and Italy will come into its own. They will be able to use debt to fund development and the company will instantly be massively re-rated by the market. This is why I am not only holding on to my current shares but continuing to acquire at these current prices.

MarketGunsling – I have backed up my opinions with links, and in the example of SLK, ZENA claimed long after, CCH (documented) had informed them of rejection of the initial takeover of SLK, that they were waiting for the takeover approval. So, in that case it should suggest that ZENA deliberately held back information from the market?

I have not seen any of the links you have posted. Would you mind reposting them here?

Takeover Rejection CCH
Since link is in arabic to actual document: Link text: Comité consultatif des hydrocarbures numéro 129 tenu le 22 et 29 décembre 2020 et 19 janvier 2021.
(Version arabe)
You’ll find it on row 11 & 12 (use google, but remember to copy right to left)
https://www.energiemines.gov.tn/fr/themes/energie/hydrocarbures/les-avis-cch/
------------------------------------------------------------------
Extension of SPA for SLK acquisition from KUFPEC
April 8, 2021; OBS: For reference, signing of the SPA was announced to the market on April 20, 2020.
https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/529751

The link you talk about shows things that happened wrt. CNPC in February. The RNS posted below shows we bought the subsidiary from CNPC holding the stake in SLK this means we did not need the approval, this happened in November. Nevertheless it should have been communicated to the market. There is however no reason to not think we hold the stake previously owned by CNPC.

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/547451

What has been communicated (not) and when, was the issue here. 🥂

Fakevenues – that is a good find. I had not seen this before. Obviously, since we did acquire the license through the purchase of the CNPC subsidiary the opinion of the hydrocarbons committee was ultimately irrelevant. However, I agree with you 100% that this should have been communicated to the market at the time. This is another question to add to my ever-growing list of questions for the ICC I think.

I do understand why the Tunisian authorities would very much prefer to have the might of CNPC investing in the development of oil production in their country as opposed to an oil mosquito like Zenith. It looks much better for the country internationally and also looks much better from an investment point of view considering the relative strengths of Zenith’s and CNPC’s balance sheets. On the other hand if CNPC is not interested in Tunisia then there is not much the Tunisians can do about that. They certainly have no leverage over CNPC and if Zenith are the only game in town then they have to play with them.

What this does do though is strengthen my opinion that we are definitely not getting the other 22.25% of SLK from KUFPEC. Though interestingly, unless I have read it wrongly, there was no rejection of that application in the same deal.

Det er ingen store som gidder å bruke ressurser på et felt som på lang sikt kan gi maks 2-5000 tønner. Da står de igjen med mygger som Zenith

We don’t know what the objection to the takeover was. But since AC then kept the incident from the shareholders and everything concerning the government approvals in Tunisia has stalled, it is therefore tempting to think that there might be a tiny touch of desert sand in the gears
One may be allowed to wonder if someone’s vanity has taken a blow…… 😁

I am not sure that vanity is the right word 😉 but I do think that AC maybe overlooked the problems of the local government opinions when he was discussing the acquisition of licenses that the oil giants were no longer interested in. Obviously it makes sense for CNPC / Total / Shell etc to get rid of small licenses that are only producing a few hundred barrels of oil a day for all the reasons that AC explained – cost effectiveness, eco-pressure etc.

It also makes sense for Zenith to be able to acquire these “fire-sale” licenses at discounted prices from sellers who do not care about the fee so much as being able to burnish their green credentials in the Western world. It allows Zenith to step up and build production for very little expense and develop a regular cash-flow as we have done in Tunisia which benefits us massively in acquiring and developing other assets.

However, it does ignore the fact that the local governments in these countries would prefer to have oil majors in-country helping develop their fields and passing on expertise to local workers instead of oil mosquitos doing the same. However, there is not much they can do about this. If an oil major no longer wants to work in your country then you cannot force them to and the choice is to go with those who do want to work there or to produce nothing.

There is probably a lesson for everybody in there. Zenith have learned to buy the subsidiaries instead of applying for license changes through formal channels and they have also (hopefully) learned to work to “win heart and minds” in the locations that they are operating in instead of just assuming that the buy/sell will be approved because the deal has been struck. I think that the article last month about the company sponsoring a local football team probably does show that some lessons have been learned here. I think it is also an endorsement of the point I have been banging on about for the last few months that is the more different operations we have in different jurisdictions, the more the risk for Zenith is spread. So expanding in new territories has more benefit than concentrating all of our efforts in a single country.

Finally, countries such as Tunisia, Congo etc need to learn the lesson that even if you have oil it does not mean that multi-national companies want to work in your country. You have to have business friendly policies in place to do this. If the multi-nationals are not already there then you just have to work harder to get them there and put in business-friendly policies in place to benefit the mosquitos and hopefully then attract the big players. Now many of these countries are so dysfunctional that this will never happen, but then that only leaves them playing with the Zenith’s of this world. In short, Zenith and comparative size companies are currently the only game in town and in order for them to attract bigger players they have to introduce policies that will benefit Zenith et al.

We ar all in the same bout here in the middle of the see, blaming the captain for bad weather is in sane he don't have control of it, I know we are all frustrate in the waiting , but remember nobody wont's this waiting time, and I m sure most of all is AC.

Tenk deg ordlyden på forumet hvis det kommer melding om Congo og aksjen stiger 3-4-500% ;)

Vet vi om Zena har begynt å dra ut penger fra disse lånene? Og eventuelt hva de brukes til?

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/562436

@Frodon -

Det spændene er hvor stor stigning, der bliver accepteret pr. dag, når RNS meldingerne lander, for vi kommer til at gå af hængslerne +500% er i den absolut lave ende.

Værdifastsættelsen alene på TLP ll overstiger hvad de fleste lige regner med

Aqualight 🇩🇰🇳🇴