Norge skal øke havvind satsingen sin med 30 gigawatt og Danmark, Tyskland, Nederland og Belgia skal kanskje øke sin satsing på havvind i Nordsjøen til minst 150 gigawatt innen 2050. Det vil si at det vil bli et enda større press på verft, montering og service av hav vind, som igjen vil føre til stor økning i dags rater og mangel på tjenestene

Verft er ca full booket frem til 2026 pga massiv bygging av LNG og containerskip. Verftet til Aker (Philly Shipyard) er også opptatt til 2026 med dagens kontrakter og hvis siste opsjon blir utøvd, er de full booket til ca 2027. Alternativet er å gjøre en kostbar utvidelse av verftet.

På Oslo Børs har vi Cadeler og Edda Wind som kan hjelpe til med montering og service av hav vind. Det kan se ut som det vil bli noe kamp om tjenestene. Rystad Energy estimerer 32 000 turbiner i 2030. Super profit til noen vil si høyere kostnader for andre. Det vil si høyere kostnader både på montering og løpende vedlikehold av vind møllene....som igjen vil føre til høye strøm priser fra hav vind hele veien og ikke bare rundt utbyggingen.

Et selskap er notert på Oslo Børs som driver med montering av hav vind møller: Cadeler:

"Offshore wind growth seems to be consensus. The best way to play these thematic might just be through the WTIVs. The WTIVs benefit not just from installing the turbines but also through the O&M market. For every new turbine being installed, the vessels are effectively creating an after math market for themselves.

"Dayrate strip includes EUR 210 kpd through 2025 after which we assume dayrates jumping to EUR 250 kpd"

"Offshore wind is set to see massive growth. But IRRs are slim, and clients can’t afford to see timing and budgets slip. Turbine installation is critical to remain on budget and schedule. Turbines are getting taller and heavier, which will pull capacity from high spec vessels"

"We count a fleet of 17 vessels today, of which none can install 14 MW turbines, but 7 can be upgraded. On top we count 13 planned newbuilds, for a total supply side of 20 vessels. However, at least 3 are only on the planning stage"

"Turbine installation vessels a potential bottleneck. With the current growth trajectory for offshore wind, turbine installation vessels represent a potential bottleneck in the value chain"

"We believe Cadeler will be able to capture ‘super-profit’ on upcoming contracts"

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Edda Wind: Service rundt montering og vedlikehold av hav vind møller er det 2 forskjellige skip:

1. CSOVs (commissioning service operation vessels) in installing and commissioning offshore wind farms

2. SOVs (Service Operations Vessel) - serving as floating infrastructure once they are operational

Det er ca 14 selskap innen dette segmentet. "in the SOV and CSOV segments to be Edda Wind, Esvagt, Windea Offshore, North Star Renewables, REM Offshore, and Norwind Offshore, which all have at least three tier-1 vessels including newbuilds. Another eight companies have one or two vessels each, giving a total of 14 companies in the market. Two stand out as market leaders based on fleet size: Esvagt and Edda Wind, with nine and eight vessels"

"Edda Wind one of few CSOV providers. The majority of the tier-1 vessels are SOVs that target long-term O&M work. Of the 38 tier-1 vessels including newbuilds, 27 are SOVs and 11 are CSOVs. Edda Wind owns four of the 11 CSOVs"

"Other companies in the CSOV space include REM Offshore, Integrated Wind Solutions, and Acta Marine. REM Offshore has one CSOV on contract with Siemens Gamesa and two newbuilds under construction"

"Including I&C and O&M, we forecast total C/SOV demand of 105 vessels by 2025 and 175 by 2029. Current supply of 42 tier-1 vessels including ordered newbuilds"

"There are about 24 purpose-built SOVs in the market today and another 20 under construction. We estimate demand in 2030 to be over 200. We have modelled dayrates of EUR25k–27k for SOVs and EUR30k–33k for CSOVs in 2021–2025e. We expect CSOV dayrates to be higher than those for SOVs due to somewhat higher capex and lower utilisation"

Informasjon er hentet fra Dnb Markets, Sparebank 1 Markets og ABG