Golden Ocean CEO: ‘More upside than downside’ for dry markets from now on
Bulker owner is confident it has done enough to protect its cash flows and regular dividends from weak spot markets

The only way is up for the capesize bulker market, according to the chief executive of shipowner Golden Ocean Group.

Ulrik Andersen told TradeWinds that there are plenty of reasons to realistically expect an upturn in spot rates by the end of this year — and in any case, Golden Ocean has already hedged much of its exposure to the capesize and panamax markets for this quarter.

For the third quarter, Golden Ocean has 80% of its available capesize days booked at an average rate of $27,900 per day and has 96% of its panamax days covered at $27,100 per day.

But it has left its options more open for the final quarter.

It has forward bookings for 25% of its available capesize days at $29,500 per day on average. Its panamax fleet is booked at an average rate of $21,900 per day for 27% of available days.

As of the market close on Wednesday, the Baltic Exchange’s forward curve indicated rates of $13,551 per day for the third quarter and $15,407 per day for the final three months.

The Oslo and Nasdaq-listed owner’s second-quarter results comfortably beat analysts’ estimates, and it added an extra $0.10 to its quarterly dividend, distributing $0.60 per share.

Andersen said the result was generated through a combination of a commercial pivot and stronger scrubber economics.

“We took a meaningful amount of fixed-paying contract cover during May and June,” he said.

“And the other part of it, of course, is that we have a very modern fleet, which is fuel efficient, and that means that we make more money than a Baltic [Exchange benchmark] vessel.”

Around 60% of Golden Ocean’s 97 vessels are fitted with scrubbers, which have helped save costs. The price of very low-sulphur fuel oil surged by roughly 20% over the course of the second quarter, while the price of heavy fuel oil declined slightly.

“I think the most important thing is to look forward,” Andersen said. “When we look towards the rest of the year, it’s clear that there are headwinds, and that the macro backdrop right now is uncertain.

“And therefore we are also happy with being able to say that we have fixed 56% of our available vessel days for the remainder of this year. We feel we have a good hedge against the low markets and we have protected our capacity to pay dividends in the coming quarter because of these fixed-paying contracts.”

Weak sentiment is weighing heavily on bulker markets in the absence of much positive economic news.

Average capesize spot rates fell below $4,000 per day on Thursday, the lowest level in two years. Panamax spot rates have fallen below $13,000 per day on average, a level not seen since early January 2020.

Andersen thinks that, at this point, the only way things can go is up.

“We have a very weak market environment at the moment, but we do believe that there’s got to be a rebound before the turn of the year, driven by increasing iron ore output from Vale, continued inefficient allocation of coal and restocking in China,” he said.

Andersen pointed to the fact that China, the world’s largest importer of dry commodities, has eased its Covid-19 restrictions, increased its economic policy stimulus measures and has cut lending rates. It will, of course, take time for the positive effects to translate into demand for bulk carriers, but the green shoots are there.

But it is evident that markets will not reach the high levels seen in 2021, he added.

“I think it’s fair to say that there’s more upside than downside from here,” he said.

“Congestion has unwound and it’s probably the single largest contributor pushing the markets down where they are today.

“But there are some other factors now coming into play as we get into the fall. And I think those factors will be enough to pull the cape[size] market out of today’s levels and into a territory where we start generating profits.”

Andersen also expects the coal trade to continue to be one of the big demand drivers for bulkers this year as the fuel makes its way from far-flung exporters to markets such as Europe, which this month implemented its final ban on Russian coal.

“We expect to see even more tonne-miles coming from coal,” he said.

Meanwhile, Golden Ocean is actively looking at how its vessels can engage in trade with Ukraine.

“There’s a lot of things that need to be aligned when it comes to [Ukraine], of course — from insurance to the safety of the crew, the vessel, to having a stem that fits with one of your vessels, etc. But we are open to the idea and are looking at it,” he said.

Super syklus?

Kina 5114 -974

Ja, ratene er jo i bånn iallefall cape så ikke rart om det bunner ut.
Stadig mer fristende å satse på bdry, men man vil jo time bunnen best mulig, vent å se nu for min del og trade Gogl evnt

Det hadde jo vært typisk om ratene skulle bunne ut akkurat når stop lossene ryker https://www.braemarscreen.com/

DNB Markets kutter kursmål til 145.

GOLDEN OCEAN
Powering through headwinds
We have cut our near-term forecast for Golden Ocean due to deteriorating dry bulk freight markets, but find its commitment to dividends reassuring as we continue to see sizable cash returns for H2e. Should today’s FFAs prove true, we still see the potential for modest cash returns, but believe the appealing fundamental backdrop should lead to a more fruitful market. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK145 (159).

H2 blues hitting estimates. We have cut our rate forecasts for H2, as the dry bulk market is hit by decreasing fleet inefficiencies and lacklustre volumes into the traditional high season, which tends to peak in October. Thus, we have cut our EBITDA by 16% for 2022e, 1% for 2023e and 2% for 2024e.
Churning out dividends that seem set to continue. The USD0.60 Q2 DPS corresponded to a 23% yield on the last close, and we expect USD0.95/share in H2, reflecting an improved market for Q4. However, the current FFAs for 2023 would equate to USD0.40 in EPS and could return a yield of c4% despite the weak outlook. Furthermore, the physical market looks better than the forwards with current TC rates quoted above the FFA for Capesize and Panamax vessels, also for three-year periods.

Bullish outlook remains, but near-term uncertainties. The supply side for dry bulk shipping is still attractive in our view, with limited fleet growth potential due to the c7% orderbook-to-fleet ratio. However, demand has been stuttering on China woes and easing inefficiencies have left a supply glut in the short term, especially for Capesizes. In addition, Australian coal exports dipped considerably in July (down 27% MOM and a similar drop YOY) as we understand nearly 10mt of exports vanished due to flooding (nearly two Capesize cargoes per day).

DNB Markets.

Det er lenge til 07.09 i børs sammenheng

jeg fokuserer mest på kursene i USA for teknisk analyse, men det ser stygt ut for HS-formasjonen der også selv om formasjonen ikke er like tydelig der. Halslinjen ligger på $10, som tilsvarer 96,8 NOK.

Da skal jeg gratulere deg.
Hadde det vært meg hadde jeg prøvd å sitte litt på shorten
Aksjen ligger i en hode skulder, der potensialet ned er 70 kroner

ja, det har vært en trend lenge, og jeg har benyttet det hver dag i det siste ved å selge i USA og kjøpe på OSE. Men så stor forskjell kan jeg ikke huske å ha sett. Dekker short på 98-tallet og satser på at det blir mulig å sette ny short når USA åpner.

Jeg tror Kina sliter mye mer enn de sier, og det slår direkte inn på storbulk.
Begynner å bli litt redd for at denne vinteren og neste vår blir svak. Kanskje vi må vente til neste sommer før vekst igjen.

Husk at 18 Feb. 2021 var prisen på aksjen Kr 53 i emisjonen.
Tiden går fort, gode utbytter har det vært og det kommer nytt utbytte i desember. Men er redd til blir det siste før neste høst

Dette er bare spekulasjon fra min side og jeg kan ta kraftig feil

Oslo er langt mer negativ enn Cowboyene. Det har man sett daglig når USA åpner. Er US bulk i overkant optimistisk?

jeg er short GOGL, men synes likevel det er merkelig. sjelden det 6 % forskjell på sluttkurs USA og kurs i Oslo uten nyheter og endring i FFA

Merkelig?
Det som er merkelig er å se Gogl på 100 lappen med Cape rater på 6000 dollar.

En er dømt til å tape når en roter i drybulk, når det er så svakt som nå

Merkelig kursutvikling for GOGL i dag. Sterk i USA i går kveld, og proppen ut rett etter start på OSE. Snodig.

Caperatene faller, men IO stiger.
Meanwhile, China’s iron ore prices gained more ground, with the market jumping to a one-week high on prospects of strong Chinese demand ahead of the peak construction season.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/capesizes-slide-to-two-year-low-drags-baltic-sea-freight-index-down/

Kanskje han tenker å tre dobla og vel so det, i forhold til inngang slik han gjorde i Mai. I så fall må han dra kursen godt over 200 før 2025 :-)

Det stemmer, takk for påminnelse!

Has shipping hit a capesize crisis or just the silly season?
There have been dramatic falls in rates for capesize vessels in recent days

25 August 2022 11:47 GMT UPDATED 25 August 2022 11:47 GMT
Journalists call the August holiday period the “silly season” because there is often nothing to write about and the creative imagination kicks in.

When I worked on the London Evening Standard many moons ago, a reporter friend brought in a photograph of a frog in his garden taken very close up.

We don’t have to “embellish” stories here though: in recent days there has been a massive slump in large bulker rates, warnings from a leading ship operator about demand destruction and disturbing economic data coming out of China.

Tanker markets may be booming but will this upturn be short-lived with rough times round the corner and upsets looming, such as the 43% slump in capesize rates seen last week?

Certainly one bulker-heavy company — Norden — is firming its grip on the handrail by ensuring that its 345 dry-vessel fleet is on time charter until 2023.

“If we do see an economic downturn or recession, then clearly demand for other dry bulk commodities — iron ore, steel, bauxite, aluminium and so on … will see declining demand,” Norden chief executive Jan Rindbo told my colleague, Holly Birkett, recently.

Norden has been benefiting like other dry bulk operators from powerful rate levels earlier in the year. The Danish company has just turned a $32m second-quarter profit in 2021 into $179m earnings this time around.

But the Chinese economy is definitely having a wobble. Central bankers there have just bucked a global trend by cutting rather than raising central bank lending rates for fear it will further stall this key engine of global growth.

Chinese retail sales, industrial output and investment all slowed last month and failed to match economists’ expectations. Continued Covid-19 lockdowns and a deepening property crisis have been heavily depressing business confidence — and activity.

There are fears that key capesize carryings such as iron ore and coking coal will continue to be less in demand unless the Chinese government itself steps in to boost spending on infrastructure. The $300bn debts of Chinese property giant Evergrande still command attention, as do buyers refusing to pay mortgages on unbuilt homes.

Some shipping analysts expect a dry bulk rates upturn in the autumn, but Chris Robertson at Deutsche Bank told my colleague, Michael Juliano, that “there is ongoing fear of a global economic slowdown, which would negatively impact minor bulk demand and mid-sized rates … Clearly, the market is pricing in low charter estimates, but it’s not based on irrational fear”.

And a quick glance around a range of economies shows it is not a pretty picture worldwide. The UK is facing the highest inflation level for 40 years while real wages dropped at record levels amid talk of property crashes and an economic slump. Chile is teetering on the brink of recession, while Turkey cut interest rates even as its inflation rate hit a 24-year high.

The recent dive in capesize rates was largely attributed by Clarksons Research to China, with some areas coming out of lockdowns allowing more ports to function properly. In April, around 36% of the world’s bulk carriers were tied up in docks somewhere, but this number has now dropped to just above 30%.

Still, the Baltic Exchange Capesize 5TC index, which monitors spot rates across five different routes, had dropped from $24,000 per day in a little over a month to $7,000 per day as measured at the end of last week. On Monday and Tuesday this week, the index was down further.

Barring an implosion of the Chinese economy, Clarksons is confident that the wider bulker trade will improve in the second half, boosted not least by the resumption of grain shipments out of Ukraine. There was better news on this front, with Lloyd’s underwriter Ascot Insurance and broker Marsh tying up what it claims to be the first cargo war risk cover for humanitarian food shipments from the war-torn country on the Black Sea.

The loss of grain exports from Ukraine combined with heatwaves and declining Chinese imports led to a 5.2% slump in the first half of the year, according to Paris-based broker Barry Rogliano Salles. But a bounceback is predicted for the last six months leading to a full year tally, up 1% year-on-year. Is it silly to be optimistic?

Dei siste 250k blir vel ikke tilgjengelige før 6 April 2023. og må løysast inn før 6. April 2025. Om ordreboka held seg på noverande nivå har eg true på nokre skikkelige Gullår fra 2025/2026 og framover.
https://www.goldenocean.bm/gogl-grant-of-stock-options/

Clarksons Platou‘s oppsummering:
«Vi er optimistiske til tørrbulkmarkedet og føler at mye av den seneste nedgangen skyldes nedstengninger i Kina tidligere i sommer. Overbelastning i havner har allerede normalisert seg, og sesongmessig bør tørrbulkhandelen forbedres i de kommende månedene», fremgår det fra meglerhuset torsdag.
https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/Rr3oeO/full-kollaps-for-shippingindeks?referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vg.no

Nå er det bare å se hva Ulle gjør med sine 250k opsjoner. Bare å holde pusten til seint i kveld. Jeg er all-in i Gøggen.

Både MW og WQ økte shorten i går - med til sammen 190k.
https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG396372051

Presentasjon ute:

No bank maturities before 2024 - equity capex funded by sale of vessels

Ser godt ut dette. Får håpe det dukker opp flere skrapinger de neste ukene. Med styrken vi ser i tank, håper jeg også på at vi kan se større NB-bestillinger fra den siden også. Tanksegmentet er en prisklasse over tørrbulk, så det er mer sannsynlig at verftene er tilbøyelige til å låse inn nybygg i dette segmentet. Vi har sett rekyl i stålprisene også nå. Caset blir bare bedre og bedre for hver uke her.

Auda, full fart mot 1000 dollar

Tar jo ingen ende...
BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS -30,25% TIL USD 3.931/DAG

Ser bra ut på lang sikt. Nye skip er bestilt og jeg har kommet meg inn med små lytteposter I Fro og GOGL. Sitter tungt i PGS og oljerelatert, men her skal det akkumuleres fremover. Håper på prisnedgang så man får snittet seg nedover.
Lykke til....

Er ikke så skeptisk, blir nok slik at neste Q gir lavere resultat og utbytte (dette bør alle vite som føger med) men rate uptick vil gi kursen fraspark fremover så vi ligger temmelig sikkert høyere rimelig kjapt
Videre og inn i neste år er det mye som taler for det kan bli virkelig bra. Ref også DnB`s vekst anslag for Kina som sier 2,5% i 2022, 3,6% i 2023, 3,8% i 2024 og hele 5% i 2025. Med andre ord gode tider for bulk så langt øye kan se. Og tar en med at tilbuds siden nesten er fraværende så sover jeg godt om natten lastet med GOGL og 2020 Bulk

Utvilsomt sterkt av Golden, Ulle er rett mann på rett sted.

Men, ikke for å ødelegge morroa altså.

Kina 6088 -2045
Bare ned 25% på en dag

Ser nok Bdry på mitt kursmål i kveld, 8 dollar og sikkert under i morgen

Er bare å bøye seg i hatten for Ulle og de slutningene som har blitt tatt. Er særdeles optimistisk for at det ikke er blitt låst så mange skip for Q4. Ser bra ut dette.

Jeg hodler og reinvesterer. Vertfall ikke å vits å selge når kursen er så lav som dette.

Ser ut som det dekkes noe short idag ja... blir spennende dager frem mot ex-dag.

Zero COVID er jo et problem som er forbigående, Kina prøver til stadighet å lette på tiltak slik at det ikke skal gå så hardt utover økonomien. Kina har nå tilsynelatende fått vaksinert hele befolkningen (2,4 doser per innbygger). De har nylig, i august, hatt en smittetopp. Når denne får kjølt seg ned skal vi se at økonomien kommer seg på føttene igjen. Det sier seg selv at det er ikke lett å bygge i en provins som er i fullstendig lock-down, men dette er etter alt å dømme forbigående.

Godt du kom deg ut med overskudd.
Er nok best å sette tørrbulk på vent, ja, en skal være forsiktig med pengene sine i disse tider.

Du er velkommen på tradertråden :)

Bare småtteri denne gangen. Inngang på 101.90 og utgang på 105.80. Har blitt mer nervøs og forsiktig på mine eldre dager :-)

Tjente du noen kroner?
Ja, dagens resultat er jo sneen som falt i går, det blir andre boller de 2 -3 neste kvartalene
Selv om Golden viser at de er blant de aller beste i klassen enda en gang

Smart. Gratulerer.

Da er jeg helt ute igjen med nok en anstendig gevinst :-). Lykke til videre alle sammen.

Selvsagt har jeg ikke det. Men er nok litt over middels interessert i Golden Ocean i forhold til menigmann. Men skal innrømme litt flaks med å "gjette" på både Q1 og Q2 resultatet, samt å selge ut like før Ulrik i mai :-)

Ja, det kan du si, men resultatet ender likevel på oppsiden av forventning.
Bedre en jeg trodde i det minste, dividendet også overasket med 10 cent på oppsiden