Kinastimuli:
Dalian and Singapore iron ore futures rose to two-week highs on Friday, posting their biggest weekly gains in six weeks, after top steel producer China announced more steps to support its COVID-ravaged economy.
Also aiding sentiment, a lower-than-expected August inflation reading in China sparked hopes for further central bank policy easing.
…
China’s intensified support for an ailing property market supported ferrous commodities, along with “an aggressive push to boost infrastructure spending as Beijing looks to support growth in the face of COVID-19 lockdowns,” ANZ commodity strategists said in a note.
After policymakers signalled a renewed sense of urgency to shore up the economy, China’s cabinet on Thursday announced more steps to spur investment, such as in new infrastructure projects.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iron-ore-futures-hit-two-week-highs-on-china-stimulus/

Sterk uke for panamax:

The panamax index was up for the seventh consecutive session, gaining 108 points, or about 6.2%, to 1,865, an over three-week high. It posted a 46.7% weekly gain, its best since early July, 2014.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, were up $971 at $16,786.
Analysts have attributed the gains mostly to higher grain shipments, especially from Brazil, of late.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-advances-as-panamax-segment-logs-best-week-in-over-8-years/

Myndighetene i Argentina presser bøndene til å eksportere mere soya.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/with-carrot-and-stick-argentina-government-drives-soy-sale-bonanza/

Som jeg skrev forrige uke, så vil panamax ha nok å henge fingrene fremover. Ser at FFA Q4 har styrket seg ganske kraftig siste to ukene. Spørsmålet er om capen følger etter? Det er noen få positive signaler fra China om dagen, men mest negativt. Jeg ser at mange bruker demografien som er påskudd til at China går dårlig nå. Det argumentet har et mye lengere tidsperspektiv. Derimot er eiendomsmarkedet viktigere i det korte og mellomlange bildet. Der er det stor usikkerhet fortsatt. Noen tiltak har blitt gjort, men tror de fortsatt vil slite en stund til. Men China er ikke som andre land så de er vanskelige å bli klok på.

Ser at malmlagrene går noe ned og at stållagrene er på lave nivåer. Det kan bane vei for en liten opptur i ratene i høst. Synes det alt i alt ser litt lysere ut fremover enn det gjorde for noen uker siden. Når det snur i tørrlast skjer det fort. Blir spennende å se om en av børsenes aller mest shortede aksje (2.6% short) kan komme seg på beina igjen i løpet av høsten. Lykke til :-)

Dårlige greier
Capesize $/day 7843 -283

Som ventet, ingen chinacape i dag grunnet nasjonal helligdag. Blir neppe mye trøkk fra denne kanten disse dager.

På den annen side er BCI godt opp:

BULK: BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +12,5% TIL USD 6.270/DAG

Jepp, men dette var forrige uke. Stengt i Kina i dag.

India beregnes å trenge mer kullkraft de kommende årene selv kulls andel av totalen går ned:
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-may-need-up-28-gw-new-coal-fired-plants-advisory-body-2022-09-12/

Valg i Kina november: 1) Xi ønsker neppe oppblomstring av kovid innen den tid. Xihar hatt null-visjon, hvilket jo selvsagt ikke er mulig, følgelig vil vi neppe se slike strenge nedstengnings-tiltak etter valget. 2) Bolig-kollaps vil nok dagens regime sørge for at ikke skjer. Konsekvensene vil være for stor.

"Valg"....

Som sagt ikke lett å forstå på hvordan man løser tingene i China.

Plutselig kom denne fra klar himmel. Det bør kunne sende råvarer og shipping et godt stykke opp :-)
https://twitter.com/DryBulkETF/status/1569321275616641035

Ser ut til å effektuere veldig veeeldig hurtig. Innen utgangen av september virker veldig stramt.

Les også:
https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2022/9/12/x70gc29e8v2ckfu9130d2zxpzc4cd3

Annenhåndsmarkedet for tankere i kraftig oppgang og vil u-unngåelig bli mettet og videre medføre nybyggbestillinger.

https://twitter.com/VesselsValue/status/1569316846003798016?s=20&t=SKmIKcS4mrCmwxSEgQfW4w

FFA:

CAPE
Sep 9000 +1500
Oct 16250 +2250
Q4 16708 +2000
Q1 8500 +500
Cal23 13625 +575

PMAX
Sep 15875 +775
Oct 17750 +1750
Q4 17092 +1542
Q1 12075 +575
Cal23 12393 +394

Akkurat som jeg sa nedenfor. Intet Lyn: Det er valg i sentralkomiteen i november. Xi skal da fremstå suksessrik. Ikke covid, ikke krise i eiendom.

Dry Bulk Update (BUY)

Due to the weakening of the demand side, we revise down all of our dry bulk target prices. However, with a supply side that is looking more and more favorable, we still see significant upside going forward and reiterate BUY on the segment.

Cleaves

Legger ved linken til analysen: https://fda195ed-9571-42ec-b092-d42af79f832c.usrfiles.com/ugd/fda195_9e57a59939ed42d09772f7b71e964179.pdf16.

Kursmål justeres til $16.

Nasdaq-shorten økt med drøyt millionen ved utgangen av august. Nærmer seg 10 mill.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gogl/short-interest

På Oslo børs er Citadel igjen over 0.5% grensa.
Totalt 6.28 mill shorta ajsjer her.
https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG396372051

Verdt å lese. Tar med konklusjonen her:

Conclusion
Compared to our last update, the global economy is facing stronger headwinds, and slower growth in China is of particular concern. The risk of a global recession has increased as central banks combat high inflation rates through a combination of increased interest rates and a reduction in fiscal stimulus.
We have therefore lowered our volume forecast but expect tonne miles demand to increase by 2-3% in 2023, compared to capacity supply growth of 0-1%. Risks remain to the demand forecast but capacity supply could also fall if demolition activity exceeds our forecast. Overall, we expect that demand will grow faster than capacity supply and improve market conditions.
For the rest of 2022, we expect an improvement in market conditions compared to present as the EU ban of Russian coal will add tonne miles and Chinese demand could rebound. Freight and time charter rates could therefore improve compared to recent levels, although we consider it unlikely that the market will reach the highs achieved earlier in the year.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-eus-ban-on-russian-coal-lifts-demand-despite-economic-headwinds/

Allied rapporterer 2 nye skrapinger av capesize skip. Hun ene Cic Pride bygget 2002 og hun andre med navnet Winning Integrity bygget 2000 solgt til skraphaugen for rett under 13 mUSD.

Har fulgt etter disse med en liten post :-)
https://twitter.com/HJBirkett/status/1569597440440811520

FA forsiden nå.
https://www.finansavisen.no/nyheter/finans/2022/09/13/7928557/spar-70-prosent-oppgang-for-shipping-vinner-som-bratt-ble-billig

Kinacapen opp 33,5%:

China-Japan/Pacific Round Voyage: 10472 (+2629)

BlackRock kjøper seg opp i GOGL.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/bulkers/blackrock-moves-in-behind-john-fredriksen-with-93m-golden-ocean-stake/2-1-1297211

Cape spot up 2,682 to 8,952$/day

13.09.2022 12:14:39
BULK: BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +42,78% TIL USD 8.952/DAG

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Baltic Capesize-indeksen er opp 42,78 prosent til 8.952 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange.

Bulk Drittanalyse i TW i går:

Capesize bulker spot market may just meet operating costs until end of 2025, analysts say
Low spot rates are pushing shipowners to send their vintage vessels to the scrapyard

12 September 2022 16:30 GMT UPDATED 12 September 2022 17:13 GMT
The capesize bulker market has been in a funk for weeks as a result of China’s real estate market, but analysts are not expecting the sector to boom anytime soon.
The Baltic Exchange’s Capesize 5TC average of five key spot rates improved 12.5% on Monday to $6,270 per day after battling back from a low of $2,505 per day on 31 August.

But analysts were not celebrating on Monday as they pointed out that this average spot rate falls well short of meeting operating costs, and that it may only go high enough to allow shipowners to pay the bills over the next couple of years.

The futures market is indicating that the average spot rate for 2022 may go as high as $14,000 per day, just enough to meet operating expenses, Fearnleys Securities wrote in a note on Monday.

“[This] will set pressure on earnings estimates going forward, hence our hold recommendation on the space,” Fearnleys said.
In spite of the gloom, Monday was a better day in the forward freight agreement (FFA) market, with capesize contracts settling higher across the board, especially for front-month contracts.

Paper for October settled $2,282 higher at $16,371 per day on Monday. Contracts for the fourth quarter of this year settled $1,822 higher at $16,727 per day.
There were also some small gains for early 2023, seasonally the weakest time of the year for the capesize market. Contracts for the first quarter of 2023 closed at $8,429 per day, $600 higher than on Friday.

Fearnleys said it expects this year’s third quarter to show strong earnings due to strong bookings but rates may bottom out in next year’s first quarter, based on the forward freight agreement rate for that period.

Clarksons Securities estimated average spot rates of $12,500 per day for this year, $14,250 per day for 2023 and $15,250 per day for 2025 — a trend that will only serve to keep the scrapyards busy.

“Scrapping has picked up with additional two capes scrapped last week,” Clarksons Securities wrote in its Monday note.
The investment banking arm of Clarksons also noted that 14 capesizes have gone under the torch so far this year, none of which had ballast water treatment systems (BWTS). The ships had an average age of 22 years.

Currently, about 0.8% of the capesize fleet is 19 to 20 years old and does not have a BWTS, according to data from Clarksons Research.
“If the market remains weak, vessels close to their next drydock and missing a BWTS are the most likely scrapping candidates due to the investments needed to continue operating,” Clarksons Securities said.

Fearnleys noted that panamaxes, however, are doing just fine, thanks to Atlantic grain volumes and port congestion.
The Panamax 5TC rose 47% last week to $16,800 per day on Friday. It rose another 3.1% on Monday

behagelig å sitte i bulk i dag når det meste annet raser.

Trøim er ikke like balleløs som Fredly!

“Iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports declined 2.32 million tonnes last week, and when combined with a continuation of robust daily port offtakes, should result in a material draw in portside inventories,” said Navigate Commodities Managing Director Atilla Widnell.

Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil declined 1.52 million tonnes over the same period, tightening the near-term balance, he added.

China’s iron ore portside inventory declined for the first time in 11 weeks to 142.1 million tonnes, as of Sept. 9, SteelHome consultancy data showed.

The blast furnace capacity utilisation rate among 247 Chinese steel mills regularly surveyed by Mysteel consultancy increased to 87.56% over Sept. 2-8, rising for the sixth straight week.

Other steelmaking inputs also rose, with Dalian coking coal and coke climbing 5% and 3.3%, respectively.

Intensified government support for China’s ailing property sector and its COVID-ravaged economy also buoyed market sentiment.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iron-ore-extends-gains-on-supply-concerns-china-demand/

Fortsatt for tidlig å friskmelde tørrlast. MEN om det snur nå, og signalene fra China fortsetter å dreie over i positivt terreng, så kan det blir veldig moro å sitte i GOGL fremover. Papiret er tungt shortet (3.1%) og shortandelen har ikke vært så stor på mange år :-)
https://shortnordic.com/detaljer_selskap.php?company=GOLDEN%20OCEAN%20GROUP&land=norway

C5 $9.9 nå, 10,4% over index i går :-)

Og shortandelen er nok enda høyere i USA :-)
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gogl/short-interest

100000 aksjer dekket på 4 minutter. He, he. Dette skal bli morsomt fremover :-)

Hva skjer? Bulk rater skulle jo gå i dass i flere år fremover. Vi er i en resesjon verden ikke har sett før hvor fall i bulkvareetterspørsen var garantert.....
For en manisk deppresiv bransje....

Shortinndekning idag ja...

Er du inne igjen kjepet?

Long - venter du fortsatt på 70 eller har du kommer deg ombord igjen😉

Ja, som jeg skrev i går så fulgte jeg med BlackRock inn med en mindre post.

https://www.finansavisen.no/forum/thread/151054/view/4862530?legacy=0

Det er ikke 'bransjen' som har vært deppresiv. Det har vært personer utenfor som med intensjon har ønsket, selv om det ikke fungerer, å snakke ned tørrbulk for å komme seg inn billig og dermed oppnå en særdeles attraktiv dividend yield på aksjene sine i årene fremover.

Capen opp 26% i China i dag :-)

Stimuli i China begynner nå å ta tak. Det tar som regel litt tid siden det er lokale myndigheter som står for dette. Gradene av stimuli denne gangen i China er av typen SVÆRT KRAFTIG :-)

Kina-capen opp 25.7%
China-Japan/Pacific Round Voyage 180000DWT Capesize $/day 13160 +2688

Hvor finner en kina-ratene?

https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/fdinew2.jsp

Takker

Kaboommm
BCI 5TC +4025 12977

Capen (BCI) opp 45 % i dag også :-)