Verdt å lese. Tar med konklusjonen her:

Conclusion
Compared to our last update, the global economy is facing stronger headwinds, and slower growth in China is of particular concern. The risk of a global recession has increased as central banks combat high inflation rates through a combination of increased interest rates and a reduction in fiscal stimulus.
We have therefore lowered our volume forecast but expect tonne miles demand to increase by 2-3% in 2023, compared to capacity supply growth of 0-1%. Risks remain to the demand forecast but capacity supply could also fall if demolition activity exceeds our forecast. Overall, we expect that demand will grow faster than capacity supply and improve market conditions.
For the rest of 2022, we expect an improvement in market conditions compared to present as the EU ban of Russian coal will add tonne miles and Chinese demand could rebound. Freight and time charter rates could therefore improve compared to recent levels, although we consider it unlikely that the market will reach the highs achieved earlier in the year.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-eus-ban-on-russian-coal-lifts-demand-despite-economic-headwinds/

Allied rapporterer 2 nye skrapinger av capesize skip. Hun ene Cic Pride bygget 2002 og hun andre med navnet Winning Integrity bygget 2000 solgt til skraphaugen for rett under 13 mUSD.

Har fulgt etter disse med en liten post :-)
https://twitter.com/HJBirkett/status/1569597440440811520

FA forsiden nå.
https://www.finansavisen.no/nyheter/finans/2022/09/13/7928557/spar-70-prosent-oppgang-for-shipping-vinner-som-bratt-ble-billig

Kinacapen opp 33,5%:

China-Japan/Pacific Round Voyage: 10472 (+2629)

BlackRock kjøper seg opp i GOGL.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/bulkers/blackrock-moves-in-behind-john-fredriksen-with-93m-golden-ocean-stake/2-1-1297211

Cape spot up 2,682 to 8,952$/day

13.09.2022 12:14:39
BULK: BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +42,78% TIL USD 8.952/DAG

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Baltic Capesize-indeksen er opp 42,78 prosent til 8.952 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange.

Bulk Drittanalyse i TW i går:

Capesize bulker spot market may just meet operating costs until end of 2025, analysts say
Low spot rates are pushing shipowners to send their vintage vessels to the scrapyard

12 September 2022 16:30 GMT UPDATED 12 September 2022 17:13 GMT
The capesize bulker market has been in a funk for weeks as a result of China’s real estate market, but analysts are not expecting the sector to boom anytime soon.
The Baltic Exchange’s Capesize 5TC average of five key spot rates improved 12.5% on Monday to $6,270 per day after battling back from a low of $2,505 per day on 31 August.

But analysts were not celebrating on Monday as they pointed out that this average spot rate falls well short of meeting operating costs, and that it may only go high enough to allow shipowners to pay the bills over the next couple of years.

The futures market is indicating that the average spot rate for 2022 may go as high as $14,000 per day, just enough to meet operating expenses, Fearnleys Securities wrote in a note on Monday.

“[This] will set pressure on earnings estimates going forward, hence our hold recommendation on the space,” Fearnleys said.
In spite of the gloom, Monday was a better day in the forward freight agreement (FFA) market, with capesize contracts settling higher across the board, especially for front-month contracts.

Paper for October settled $2,282 higher at $16,371 per day on Monday. Contracts for the fourth quarter of this year settled $1,822 higher at $16,727 per day.
There were also some small gains for early 2023, seasonally the weakest time of the year for the capesize market. Contracts for the first quarter of 2023 closed at $8,429 per day, $600 higher than on Friday.

Fearnleys said it expects this year’s third quarter to show strong earnings due to strong bookings but rates may bottom out in next year’s first quarter, based on the forward freight agreement rate for that period.

Clarksons Securities estimated average spot rates of $12,500 per day for this year, $14,250 per day for 2023 and $15,250 per day for 2025 — a trend that will only serve to keep the scrapyards busy.

“Scrapping has picked up with additional two capes scrapped last week,” Clarksons Securities wrote in its Monday note.
The investment banking arm of Clarksons also noted that 14 capesizes have gone under the torch so far this year, none of which had ballast water treatment systems (BWTS). The ships had an average age of 22 years.

Currently, about 0.8% of the capesize fleet is 19 to 20 years old and does not have a BWTS, according to data from Clarksons Research.
“If the market remains weak, vessels close to their next drydock and missing a BWTS are the most likely scrapping candidates due to the investments needed to continue operating,” Clarksons Securities said.

Fearnleys noted that panamaxes, however, are doing just fine, thanks to Atlantic grain volumes and port congestion.
The Panamax 5TC rose 47% last week to $16,800 per day on Friday. It rose another 3.1% on Monday

behagelig å sitte i bulk i dag når det meste annet raser.

Trøim er ikke like balleløs som Fredly!

Intermodal rapporterer bestilling av 11 store LNG skip og 12 store container skip. 2025-bestillingene fortsetter å fylle seg opp.Containerbestillingen har leveringsdato t.o.m. 2026.

“Iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports declined 2.32 million tonnes last week, and when combined with a continuation of robust daily port offtakes, should result in a material draw in portside inventories,” said Navigate Commodities Managing Director Atilla Widnell.

Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil declined 1.52 million tonnes over the same period, tightening the near-term balance, he added.

China’s iron ore portside inventory declined for the first time in 11 weeks to 142.1 million tonnes, as of Sept. 9, SteelHome consultancy data showed.

The blast furnace capacity utilisation rate among 247 Chinese steel mills regularly surveyed by Mysteel consultancy increased to 87.56% over Sept. 2-8, rising for the sixth straight week.

Other steelmaking inputs also rose, with Dalian coking coal and coke climbing 5% and 3.3%, respectively.

Intensified government support for China’s ailing property sector and its COVID-ravaged economy also buoyed market sentiment.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iron-ore-extends-gains-on-supply-concerns-china-demand/

Fortsatt for tidlig å friskmelde tørrlast. MEN om det snur nå, og signalene fra China fortsetter å dreie over i positivt terreng, så kan det blir veldig moro å sitte i GOGL fremover. Papiret er tungt shortet (3.1%) og shortandelen har ikke vært så stor på mange år :-)
https://shortnordic.com/detaljer_selskap.php?company=GOLDEN%20OCEAN%20GROUP&land=norway

C5 $9.9 nå, 10,4% over index i går :-)

Og shortandelen er nok enda høyere i USA :-)
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gogl/short-interest

100000 aksjer dekket på 4 minutter. He, he. Dette skal bli morsomt fremover :-)

Hva skjer? Bulk rater skulle jo gå i dass i flere år fremover. Vi er i en resesjon verden ikke har sett før hvor fall i bulkvareetterspørsen var garantert.....
For en manisk deppresiv bransje....

Shortinndekning idag ja...

Long - venter du fortsatt på 70 eller har du kommer deg ombord igjen😉

Ja, som jeg skrev i går så fulgte jeg med BlackRock inn med en mindre post.

https://www.finansavisen.no/forum/thread/151054/view/4862530?legacy=0

Det er ikke 'bransjen' som har vært deppresiv. Det har vært personer utenfor som med intensjon har ønsket, selv om det ikke fungerer, å snakke ned tørrbulk for å komme seg inn billig og dermed oppnå en særdeles attraktiv dividend yield på aksjene sine i årene fremover.

Capen opp 26% i China i dag :-)

Stimuli i China begynner nå å ta tak. Det tar som regel litt tid siden det er lokale myndigheter som står for dette. Gradene av stimuli denne gangen i China er av typen SVÆRT KRAFTIG :-)

Kina-capen opp 25.7%
China-Japan/Pacific Round Voyage 180000DWT Capesize $/day 13160 +2688

Hvor finner en kina-ratene?

https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/fdinew2.jsp

Takker

Kaboommm
BCI 5TC +4025 12977

Capen (BCI) opp 45 % i dag også :-)

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Baltic Capesize-indeksen er opp 44,98 prosent til 12.977 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange.

Herlig😀👍💰

Fra Clarksons

Dry bulk:

Cape rates are up 45% today, currently at $13,000/day, continuing the good momentum from yesterday. Since the August 31 low of $2,500/day, Cape rates have increased more than 400 percent and are back at cash breakeven levels for most owners. Spot rates are rising across the board, driven by higher activity out of Australia and Brazil, as well as increased port congestion in China (including a temporary port shutdown due to a typhoon), and fewer Capes located in the Atlantic.

Er det noen som har mottatt Q utbyttet idag?
Kan ikke se at det er godskrevet konto enda.

Utbyttet kommer om to dager når det gjelder OSE.
https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/569645

Ellers sjekk ut ny hjemmeside!
https://www.goldenocean.bm/

Kommer på fredag.

Godt å se at mange investorer på OSE fikk kvittet seg med Gogl på 91-tallet i dag. Ikke akkurat på linje med resten av verden :-)

Freight futures am update
Capesize up ~6%
Panamax down ~3%
……
Og JH på Twitter nå😀
Capes extend the rally amidst high activity out of both Australia & Brazil, concurrent with disruptions from typhoons in the East China Sea & a relatively thin tonnage list in the Atlantic

Baltic #Capesize index +45% to $13k/d🚀
Brazil/China +36% to $13k/d🚀

#DryBulk #Shipping

Uvanlig stor kursforskjell på SBLK og GOGL i dag.

MARSHALL WACE LLP la på nye 220k aksjer til shorten sin på tirsdag. Blir det ny short squeeze i dag? Gogl er nå det tredje mest shortede selskapet på OSE. Tipper det blir en ny herlig dag for "long" folket :-)

FFA også grønn i dag👍
….
https://m.braemarscreen.com/?fromweb=true