Avance går ex. utbytte idag. Og trekker BWLPG ned samtidig.

Skulle tro aksjen gikk ex utbytte i dag, men det er vel en korreksjon som må komme innimellom.

Aksjen har kanskje løpt litt fort, og kommet foran segselv og må justere seg inn.
lett å bli "fartsblind", trading foregår. Intervallet 150-170 ingen signal på at det skal ut av dette intervallet.

Hva er det som skjer i LPG markedet. Var det det som startet med Dorian igår?

https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2023/12/06/8068287/spar-overraskende-inntjeningsvekst-for-lpg-rederier

Et skikkelig byks for aksjen så langt i dag. Analytikerne ligger med kursmål over kr. 200,-. Kombinert med stadige positive oppdateringer ang de fundamentale forholdene for LPG-rederiene, både på kort og lengre sikt, bør retningen være satt.
Interessant med «i pose og sekk», både kursoppgang og fete utbytter. Ja, det går ikke så mange børsdagene før kursen har tatt igjen fallet ved x-dag.

Pareto med kursmål kr. 207,- De har vel også stipulert rundt kr. 50,- i direkteavkastning i 2024. 24%
Lurer stadig på hvordan noteringen i US vil forløpe dersom disse tallene slår inn.
Eneste negative med BW LPG nå; fremdeles flere måneder å vente på dual-noteringen.

Fra Pareto-analysen:
BW LPG's VLGC-flåte er tilnærmet netto gjeldfri, noe som gjør at deres 100 % utbytteutbetalingspolitikk kan fortsette. Til tross for dette handles aksjene med rabatt til likemenn både på NAV (1,0x vs. 1,1 – 1,2x) og yield/multipler. Vi sliter med å forstå dette fullt ut, og ser ikke mangel på innflytelse som noen hindring for fortsatt solid verdiskaping. I et marked som ser stramt ut i mange år, forblir BWLPGs 30 % FCF-avkastning med nesten null gjeld på balansen attraktiv for oss.
Vi gjentar KJØP med TP 207 (203).

I pose og sekk med denne aksjen, både potensiell kursoppgang og fete utbytter.

Husker forrige gang Avance ble tradet i området 130-150 kroner og den ble anbefalt pga utbytter etc, men det ble kortvarig glede den gangen og det fulgte kurskollaps. Etter 7 magre følger det 7 fete år som det heter...Kan gå troll i ord.

avsnitt fra artikkel, med link under:

Vi mener at skipsmegleranslagene er for lave i dag og vår forventede NAV om et års tid er 216 kroner i Avance og 221 kroner i BW LPG. Dette er også våre kursmål på aksjene, som begge er om lag 40 prosent høyere enn dagens børskurser.

https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2023/12/04/8067240/spar-avance-gas-og-bw-lpg-opp-40-prosent

Panama Canal disruption could linger into 2025, warns Clarksons’ Steve Gordon

No significant easing of transit restrictions any time soon, with LPG ships bearing the brunt of disruption

4 December 2023 11:27 GMT UPDATED 4 December 2023 11:27 GMT
By Gary Dixon in London

Clarksons Research believes the huge disruption caused by transit restrictions at the Panama Canal will linger for some time yet.

Crossings will be cut to 18 per day from February, 50% of the usual number, due to low water levels caused by drought.

Steve Gordon, managing director of Clarksons Research, said: “Transit restrictions appear likely to remain in place for some time to come, with the rainy season in Panama falling from May to December.”

The months with the greatest average rainfall are October and November, he explained.

This suggests restrictions “may not be significantly eased until the second half of 2024 or later”, the researcher added.

LPG vessels will be the most affected, due to the importance of the waterway for major trade routes and the vessels’ lack of priority in booking systems, Gordon believes.

VLGCs are already avoiding the canal to route via the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope.

This is hugely increasing voyage lengths and likely to boost rates into next year, Clarksons Research forecasts.

“There will also be an impact on overall freight costs associated with these longer voyages, potentially impacting arbitrage economics,” Gordon said.

The LNG carrier sector may also see some market upside as the lower availability of slots leads to re-routing of US to Asia trades to longer-haul voyages, he added.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/panama-canal-disruption-could-linger-into-2025-warns-clarksons-steve-gordon/2-1-1564975

Pareto Securities høyner kursmål for BW LPG til 207 kroner (203), gjentar kjøp

Finansavisen idag!

BW LPG/AVANCE GAS: ABG Sundal Collier løfter kursmålet i BW LPG fra 188 kroner til 221 kroner. Kursmålet i Avance Gas løftes fra 146 kroner til 216 kroner.

Korrigere: 175kr

Korrigere: 175kr

Kjeltringer, de kjørte kursen nede til 149kr uten substans så de kan kjøpe selv. Nå kom de med oppgraderinger. Nesten sikkert på at kursen står 275kr eller mer fra 15 des når folk får utbytte og skal kjøpe mer. Kriminelt.

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): ABG Sundal Collier oppjusterer sitt kursmål på BW LPG til 221 kroner, fra 188 kroner, og gjentar kjøpsanbefaling.

Det fremgår av en sektorrapport fredag.

Meglerhuset oppjusterer samtidig kursmålet på Avance Gas til 216 kroner, fra 146 kroner, og gjentar kjøpsanbefaling.

"Produksjonsveksten for amerikansk LPG er sterkere enn forventet, noe som gjør nybyggordreboken for 2024-2026 "for lav". Vi forventer derfor fortsatt høye LPG-fraktrater inn i 2024-2025", skriver meglerhuset.

Noen som kan forklare omsetningen på sluttauksjonen i dag som var på over ca 550 000 aksjer, over halvparten av omsetningen i dag.

Har man et langsiktig perspektiv på investering i BW LPG så mener jeg at nyheter som dette, at selskapet tar grep for å sikre seg en del av infrastrukturen for LPG i India, er meget gode.
Ikke utenkelig at neste trekk kan være å investere i virksomhet på land i USA.

https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/ports-shipping/bw-lpg-partners-with-ganesh-benzoplast-and-confidence-petroleum-for-lpg-infra/105608543

Kurser går ikke bare opp, etter at de har gått opp kan de gå noe tilbake/ned. Om noe har gått for mye opp på kort tid, kan det falle tilbake og kjøre seg litt fast for en periode, men det er jo aksjen. Blokksalget som skjedde var helt utenfor selskapet og kursutslaga var av psykologisk karakter, derfor rask innhenting og opp mot 170-185 område test. Nå må kurs bli ferdig nedi her på 150 tall, jeg ser et Bull flagg så langt i en meget sterk oppadgående trend. Dersom 150 støtten holder nå får man ikke ny lave I Bull flagget som kan signalisere et brudd ut/opp neste.

Vanskelig å se at noe fundamentalt har endret seg siden Q3 rapportering.
Kristian Sørensen i FA for noen dager siden:
«USA -eksporten ser fundamentalt sterk ut … sterkt signal for videre vekst i produksjon og eksport … uforutsette hendelser vil ikke endre den fundamentale styrken i markedet»
Svakhet i aksjekursen de siste dagene: Kombinasjon av gevinstsikring, svakere dollar og usikkerhet rundt avgjørelsen til OPEC?

Vel og bra dette. De fleste er enige om at utsiktene er lyse. Men noen undrer seg nok om fallet de siste dagene. Alle gass- transportøree faller. Siste var vel Dorian i kveld, med over 4 %. Er dette en korreksjon, eller er det noe annet på gang? Opec?

BW LPG Q3: While Waiting For Rainfall, It's Raining Dividends
Nov. 26, 2023 9:20 AM ETBW LPG Limited (BWLLF)AVACF, LPG12 Comments

In an exceptional market for VLGC shipping, BW LPG is fundamentally a solid company with great dividend capacity.
Shipyard capacity and asset prices prevent excess tonnage from being added to the market.
Short term, the market fundamentals are excellent due to the Panama Canal traffic jam; long term, ton-mile demand is likely to remain high.
LPG cylinder"s valve
The recently announced capacity restrictions in the Panama Canal have done more than any other factor to reduce effective fleet supply worldwide

NorGal/iStock via Getty Images

Investment thesis
Following its Q2 earnings, which I covered in a previous article, BW LPG (OTCPK:BWLLF, OTCPK:BWLLY) has reported even more substantial Q3 earnings. The main points supporting the thesis - low leverage, an excellent management track record, the world's largest fleet of modern dual-fuel ships, and favorable market dynamics - have been strengthened since the previous quarter. The main reason was, of course, the Panama Canal traffic jam.

It is awash in cash, has very low leverage, has an excellent management track record, and has the world's largest fleet of modern dual-fuel ships. For Q3, it declared a $0.80/sh dividend, bringing its YTD dividend to $2.56. Based on a share price of $14, its annualized yield is about 24%. Its previously reported US listing is proceeding as planned and will give the company access to a much larger investor base.

The VLGC freight sector's fundamentals are excellent and have been for some time. The Panama Canal is set to operate at reduced capacity. With VLGCs at the back of the line, many shipowners will have to re-route around the Cape or Suez, increasing sailing distances by 50 percent. Given these market factors and strong fundamentals, its ability to generate dividends is unprecedented.

Its upcoming dual listing in the U.S. will likely increase liquidity and reduce currency risk (alleviating investors of the NOK risk).

Finally, the long-term fundamentals of the LPG market support VLGC shipping: large production capacity in the U.S. and demand in the Far East.

Introduction to BW LPG and recent events
BW LPG is perhaps the largest owner-operator of VLGCs in the world, controlling 45 ships, of which 32 are owned. It has one of the largest dual-fuel fleet in the world, totaling 17 ships.

On Oct 2, Kristian Sorensen assumed the CEO role in what appeared to be an orderly transition following former CEO Anders Onarheim's announcement that he would step down after September 2023. No official reason was given, and Mr. Onarheim has since worked as chairman of a few Norwegian microcaps. He has retired after four successful years at BW LPG. Kristian Sorensen joined BW LPG in late 2022 after leaving the CEO role at peer Avance Gas in what seems to have been preparation for a future CEO role at BW LPG.

BW LPG CEO Kristian Sorensen was interviewed by the Norwegian financial newspaper Finansavisen (in Norwegian) on Nov 16 concerning BW LPG's Q3 release. Due to the high asset prices, the company is struggling to find good growth opportunities. At this time, Mr. Sorensen said that paying dividends is the best option for shareholders. It has begun looking into investing in other parts of the value chain, such as land terminals.

Its parent company, BW Group Limited, caused a short-term stock crash after block-selling 8.4 million shares on Oct 3 at $ (NOK 120/sh). For comparison, BW LPG closed at NOK 132.20. Post-sale, it owns about 34 percent of BW LPG. BW Group Limited cited a wish to increase liquidity in the stock and rebalance its portfolio of group companies as the reasons for completing the sale.

Change to Dividend Policy: "Core Shipping"
After BW LPG bought Vilma LPG last year and started growing its trading division, BW Product Services, its relative importance has increased. In July, its Product Services division reported a $32 million "timing effect" loss. Necessities following from IFRS aside, all of this amounts to reduced transparency in its dividend policy, which makes me glad that BW LPG has clarified its dividend policy.

In the future, its shipping division's net profit after tax and net leverage ratio will form the basis. Further, the dividend payout will consider "BW Product Services’ performance; Our capital expenditure plans; and All financing requirements, financial flexibility, and anticipated cash flows of the business."

Upcoming U.S. Listing (Dual Listing)
The company stated, "The work towards the announced dual listing in the US is on plan, with an expected listing in Q2 2024" in its Q3 earnings presentation. The company will remain listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange and has not announced plans to delist from the OSE.

While giving the company access to a more extensive investor base, the dual listing will alleviate current and prospective investors of the NOK currency risk. The value of the NOK has been sliding for years, and its volatility has increased in later years. In the interview mentioned above, Mr. Sorensen also stated that the company has received complaints about its currency risk related to NOK.

Fundamentals
In this section, BW LPG will be compared to its two main peers, Avance Gas (OTCPK:AVACF) and Dorian LPG (LPG). As in my previous analysis, the figures show that BW LPG remains the undervalued, relatively speaking, company of the three.

P/B and P/E
Dorian LPG and Avance have gone from a P/B of less than 1 in a year to about 2. BW LPG comes in somewhat lower, at 1.3. While Avance has the youngest fleet, Dorian's and BW's ships are not "old."

Chart
Data by YCharts
EV/EBITDA
Judging by this metric, Avance Gas has become relatively expensive during the past quarter. Dorian and BW LPG's figures have remained relatively flat during 2023, meaning that their EBITDA has increased along with their enterprise value.

Chart
Data by YCharts
Debt to EBITDA
BW LPG has operated with significantly lower debt levels than its two peers for some time. While all three have deleveraged further during the past year, BW has reached record low levels.

Chart
Data by YCharts
Total Return Level and Dividend Yield
Comparing the three companies by Total Return Level and Dividend Yield yields an exciting picture. Dorian LPG has recently outperformed in total return, but the rapid price appreciation seen for both Dorian LPG and Avance Gas has sent their dividend yields somewhat down. Again, we see that both Dorian and Avance appear to attract more investor attention than BW LPG.

Chart
Data by YCharts
Valuation
Its peer, Dorian LPG, surged 10 percent after Jefferies issued a buy recommendation on November 20. Setting a $50 price target, Jefferies reported, according to the SA article,

"The recent Panama Canal restrictions, however, change the outlook considerably, tightening VLGC capacity and raising both spot and forward charter rates. The sector is already underpinned by strong US liquids export growth, which is likely to continue next year (..) We are raising our VLGC rate forecast to $75,000/day for 2024, up from $45,000/day.

In a previous analysis, I calculated a valuation of NOK 150 (USD 14) for BW LPG stock. Since then, the Panama Canal's capacity has declined steeply, effectively reducing the world fleet by increasing sailing distances by up to 50 percent. In addition, shipyards are still booked well into 2026 and 2027, preventing other players from adding capacity to the market. In the interview with the newspaper mentioned above, Mr. Sorensen even said that BW LPG is considering investing in other parts of the value chain as it currently cannot find profitable growth opportunities. Under current market conditions, BW LPG is worth well above USD 14. With its dividend capacity at an all-time high, it looks like a promising case.

Market Outlook
Global Fossil Fuel Demand to Continue, Says EIA Projection
In its International Energy Outlook 2023, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that the world will still demand significant quantities of natural gas and liquids in 2050 across all of its scenarios:

World 2050 energy demand mix
World 2050 energy demand mix (IEA, International Energy Outlook 2023)

Further, it says, "[g]rowth in natural gas consumption is widely distributed regionally, but it is most notable in India, the Other Asia-Pacific region, China, Africa, Russia, the Middle East, and the Other Americas region." The takeaway from this analysis is that the world will still demand natural gas and liquids, and the most significant demand is coming from regions far away from what is currently the world's largest exporter of natural gas, the U.S.

US Exports
In the same interview mentioned above, Mr. Sorensen commented that he sees the LPG market as a supply-driven market, as LPG is a byproduct of oil and gas production. Domestic LPG consumption in the U.S. remains flat, meaning published production and inventory levels provide export transparency.

In its Q3 presentation, BW LPG offers this illustration:

Seaborne LPG exports and imports by region
Seaborne LPG exports and imports by region (BW LPG Q3 2023 presentation)

According to these graphs - of which data was sourced from IHS and BW LPG's research - North America has increased its exports significantly in the past year, while China and India have increased imports. The Middle East needs to increase its production to match the increased demand of China and India. This is an excellent combination for shippers such as BW LPG because this dynamic increases ton-mile demand.

The Panama Canal Shows No Signs of Returning to Full Capacity
The Canal's capacity issues this year have been widely published. Starting in February 2024, the Canal will allow just 18 ships

Hva tenker folk om «bunn» i år, risikerer kursen å falle under 150? Veldig volatilt for tiden, mulig noen benyttet sjansen til å gevinstsikre på over 160 igjen nå sist, eller hva er grunn til nedgangen i dag?
Er det ikke rart om Avance Gas påvirker BW slik når Q3 resultatene ble forskjellige?

Ser ut som vi nærmer oss en samkjøring nå, men ikke helt av de årsaker vi ønsker oss😅

Jeg finner også dette noe merkelig. Før blokksalget lå AGAS 15-20% lavere i kurs. Vi får vente å se etterhvert.

Etter "blokksalget" i sommer tror jeg noen fikk litt kalde føtter.
Mye ned i dag synes jeg. Litt merkelig. Panamatrøbbel gir høyere inntjening.

Vi henger godt bak AGAS, var ikke BWLPG betydelig foran tidligere i kurs og kursmålene er høyere? Utviklingen burde ikke være slik, vet det er betalt utbytter, men det gjør AGAS også.

Eller ned.
Litt typisk Mandag. Nordover i morgen satser vi på!

Freser videre opp 👍🥂💰

Her fortsetter lastingen 👍

Wooooow for et løft i dag, hva skjer ? 💰😇

Jeg lurer på hvor bunnen er..?

Jefferies is raising its VLGC rate forecast to $75,000 per day for 2024, up from $45,000 previously.

Taper penger med vilje, da.
Hvis man er innstilt på å betale for å få ned en kurs, så er det selvsagt mulig.

Det finnes programvarer/algoritmer som kan sette kjøps- og salgsordrer og på den måten - til en viss grad - manipulere kursen.

Hvordan mener du de gjør det? Setter de nye shorter? Eller selger de bare aksjer de sitter på? Det er ingen andre måter å få ned kursen på som jeg vet om.

Kan det være shortere som jobber hardt med å senke kursen? Er lånt ut nesten 1,5 mill aksjer til short og disse må jo ligge med massive tap. Tør vi håpe på en shortskvis..?

Litt merkelig fall i dag når man tar med de særdeles lyse utsiktene for Q4 og til dels Q1.
Noen som vil forklare fallet?

Det er så bra at det blir vanskelig å bygge nye båter. Jeg tror selgere i Bwlpg er små sparerer hvis en ser på volumet, de som har vært med fr lav nivå og som sikret seg utbytte, mulig kommer vi å se det samme m Avance senere. Volumene flytter seg til Gogl, Fro, Hafnia og det er noe peng å hente der og. Håper vi ser andre priser på BWlpg når det blir notert i usa, hvis vi tar Dorian som pekefinger. Veldig korte penger i denne børsen her dessverre.