Vanskelig å spå. Men siste året har den hentet seg fort inn etter utbytte. Nå er det store forventninger til Q4 og det betyr jo en del. Selv blir jeg sittende, med påfyll, i allefall frem til sommeren
Lykke til.

Hørte på en shippinganalytiker nylig, vedkommende mente at NAV var en overvurdert faktor å ta hensyn til innen shipping.
Har grublet litt på dette og når jeg leser Gull i pungen sitt innlegg med kommentarene fra DNB så forstår jeg mer:

«there is a theoretical potential to lock in c60% of the market cap in cash flow by end-2025e».

Hva betyr vel stålverdiene når det er så gode muligheter for store inntekter.
Inntjening, Free cash flow og direkte avkastning, må være bedre faktorer å ta hensyn til.

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): DNB Markets høyner kursmålet på BW LPG til 212 kroner pr aksje , fra tidligere 210 kroner, og gjentar en kjøpsanbefaling, ifølge en oppdatering.

ABG Sundal Collier høyner sitt kursmål til 188 kroner pr aksje, fra 156 kroner, og gjentar kjøp, mens Fearnley Securities høyner sitt kursmål til 190 kroner pr aksje, fra 175 kroner, og gjentar kjøp.

DNB ute med Q3 results review i dag

BW LPG

Strong cash flow set to keep coming

We believe BW LPG represents a solid value proposition
amid a strong VLGC market, which is fuelling FFAs of
cUSD90k/day for 2024 and cUSD65k/day for 2025.
Hence, there is a theoretical potential to lock in c60% of
the market cap in cash flow by end-2025e, and nearterm we expect the Q3 run-rate dividend yield of ‘just’
22% to expand to >30% on delayed revenue recognition
and a vessel sale during Q4 and Q1. We reiterate our
BUY and have raised our target price to NOK212 (210).

Solgte meg ut før rapporteringen i dag, men har lyst til å kjøpe meg inn før Ex-dag.. Så spørs det hvor mye kursen faller på Ex-dagen, eller rettere sagt hvor fort den er oppe igjen.. Etter siste ukers oppgang, gevinssikring nå så har jeg en følelse av at kursen ikke vil presses så mye opp før vi kommer over nyttår,,, mulig en feil antagelse, men… Så jeg er usikker på når tid man får den beste inngangen, før eller etter Ex-dag? Noen erfarne som kan forklare litt hadde vært fint😊

BW LPG Limited ("BW LPG", the "Company", OSE ticker code: "BWLPG.OL") provides the following key information relating to its cash dividend for Q3 2023.

Dividend amount: USD 0.80 or NOK 8.890 per share
Last day the stock is trading including the right to receive this dividend: 16 November 2023
Ex-date: 17 November 2023
Dividend payment date: 15 December 2023
Date of approval: 13 November 2023
Record date: 20 November 2023

15/12

ex date er fredag, noen vet når payment date? Takk

Her kan man sannsyligvis sitte trykt i noen kvartaler til :-)

Subsequent Events
▪ BW Kyoto will be delivered to BW LPG in November 2023, following the declaration of an attractive
purchase option under the time charter agreement in Q1. The vessel will be on a 6-year time charter
starting in Q1 2024, securing a ROCE of ~18% over the time charter period
▪ Entered into an agreement to sell BW Princess with an estimated delivery in Q1 2024. The sale is
expected to generate approximately $64 million in liquidity and a net book gain of $20 million
▪ Sinogas is joining the BW LPG VLGC pool in Q4 with one LPG dual-fuel vessel. Following this addition,
our operated VLGC fleet comes up to 45 vessels
▪ MGCs Eco Sorcerer and Astor have joined our fleet in November under time charter contracts
4
Market Outlook
▪ We reiterate our positive view for 2023 and 2024, amid high volatility. Key underlying
drivers include:
▪ High oil price leading to increased oil and gas exploration conducive to
continued strong export growth from the US and steady growth from the Middle
East
▪ New PDH plants coming on stream in China
▪ Newbuilding deliveries to slow down after Q1 2024
▪ Shipyards booked until H1 2027
▪ Shipping inefficiencies including Panama Canal restrictions
▪ At the same time, we are mindful of the current uncertain macro-economic
environment, and how this can impact both investments in - and demand for LPG

▪ Spot rates during Q3 2023 were exceptionally strong, supported by growth
in North American LPG exports and higher demand in the Far East. Transit
restrictions at the Panama Canal has furthermore caused more ships to
ballast back to the US through the long way via Suez or Cape of Good
Hope compared to a year ago
▪ LPG inventories remain high in China but are trending downwards.
Average run rates at Chinese PDH plants are lower than three months
ago. 10 more PDH plants are scheduled to start up in the near term
▪ FFAs for the remainder of 2023 reflect continued high spot rates
▪ 32 out of 43 VLGC newbuildings have been delivered for 2023
▪ Q3 did not see as many newbuilding deliveries as expected in the last
update, and several scheduled deliveries have slipped into Q4
▪ Shipyards are for the most part booked until the first half of 2027

Q4 2023
▪ Fixed ~79% of our available fleet days at an
average rate of ~$73,000 per day5 , including the
impact from FFA and TC out
Guidance
2024 Charter portfolio
▪ 19% covered by TC out at $41,300 per day
▪ 13% covered by FFA hedges at $59,000 per day

Var det noe i presentsjonen som ikke svarte til forventningene?

Forventer ingen trenger å selge selv om det ikke hadde blitt halleljuja, dersom halleluja kunne en kanskje solgt, pga en evt overreaksjon til oppsiden. Har vært fett å sitte over ex utbytte dag siste 3 kvartaler, og virker som det kan vedvare i kvartalene fremover. Kan kanskje ikke vare "evig" men tipper ikke kursmål 210 blir satt nevneverdig ned.

I rapporten står det at nav på Bwlpg er 150 kr, altså ikke så billig lenger og med tanke på hvis krigen eskalerer og Iran blir involvert kan de true med å stenge Hormuz stredet eller stenge det dagår 25-30 % av lpg produksjonen bort, valgte å selge idag

Fra Fearnley

BWLPG reported a strong earnings report, though, numbers were slightly below our (and CS’s) lofty expectations. EBITDA of USD 184m was below FS USD 195m estimate as TCE was 63k/d vs. Fsest. 65kk/d, though in-line with CS estimates. EPSadj. at 85c and DPS at 80c (100% of shipping earnings + upwards adj. of 2c) was also consequently slightly below expectations, though, the latter still implies a solid 21% annualized yield. Spot rates achieved for the quarter was USD 81.3k/d (or USD 73.5k incl. waiting times and FFAs), whilst TC rates was 42.9k/d, taking fleet wide TCE performance to USD 63.1k/d.


Most interesting however is looking at bookings and market commentary, where we note mgmt. outlook comments remain as bullish as previously. For 4q, BWLPG has 32% TC coverage and 19% for 2024 at rates of USD 38.5k/d and USD 41.3k/d, respectively. Notably, 2024 coverage is only up from 12% last report, though, BW also sits with 13% FFA coverage at a strong USD 59k/d – i.e., that’s 32% 2024 coverage at USD 48.5k/d.


However, focusing on 4q23 alone, the entire fleet is now 79% fixed at USD 73k/d (incl. 32% TC coverage at USD 73k/d), that should imply spot bookings of a whopping c. USD 90k/d. I.e., assuming no earnings from product services, 4q23 EPS should be around FS 1.00/sh (CS at 1.09). However, both current spot rates of USD 130k/d on the remaining open days and product services should come on top. Given fixing length and voyage durations, we wouldn’t be surprised if 1q24 spot bookings also remained higher than 3q. i.e., next 6mhts estimates are set to rise, we believe.

ex utbytte på fredag. Ville vel ikke solgt disse dager. Men du får sikkert rett. Så lenge markedet er knallsterktt og FFA følger på. Beholder jeg mine aksjer

Det spørs, tall er svakere enn ventet selv om gode tall. Blir nok ingen halleluja dag kursmessig. Pga valutajusteringer bli utbyttet allikevel 20øre høyere enn q2.

Ja, notering i US blir interessant og spennende, ser at man forventer å gjennomføre det i løpet av Q2 2024.
Da har amerikanerne sannsynligvis fått en sterk Q4 rapport med tilhørende utbytte «å tygge på».
Blir ikke forbauset om det blir gevinstsikring i dag, men tenker at det er i Q4 vi virkelig får glede av høyere rater, så blir sittende gjennom eventuell dipp nedover.

Fixed 79% of our fleet at an average rate of 73000$ for 4Q. Veldig sterkt.

Knallsterkt Q3. Og sterkere Q4 i vente. Selv om noen her forventet over 1 usd i utbytte, så er dette meget solide tall. ( "Knalltall" sier FA) Outlook, særlig Q4 bikker nok 1 usd i utbytte. Notering i US vil gi solid løft, slik det gjorde feks for "Flex" mfl. Må være optimist etter disse talla!

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): BW LPG fikk en ebitda på 184 millioner dollar i tredje kvartal 2023, mot 182 millioner dollar i samme periode året før, ifølge selskapets kvartalsrapport tirsdag.

Det var på forhånd ventet en ebitda på 182 millioner dollar, ifølge snittet av estimater innhentet av Infront fra seks analytikere.

TCE-inntektene var 195 millioner dollar i kvartalet (131), mot ventet 223 millioner dollar. Driftsresultatet for kvartalet ble 128 millioner dollar (54), mot ventet 132 millioner dollar, mens resultat før skatt ble 122 millioner (47), mot ventet 131 millioner.

Styret har besluttet et kvartalsutbytte på 0,80 dollar pr aksje.

Gleder meg. Spesielt spent på Outlook Q4

Frontman er nok inne på noe ...I morgen får vi svaret .


https://www.bwlpg.com/investors/reports-presentations/#other_reports_and_presentations

Se side 11 i linken over.

Q3 2023
▪ Fixed ~84% of our available fleet days at an
average rate of ~$65,000 per day5 , including the
impact from FFA
Guidance
Charter portfolio
▪ 2023 is 34% covered by TC out at $38,200 per
day
▪ TC in book covered at $43 million profit
▪ 2023 is 9% covered by FFA hedges at $36,800
per day

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Det er ganske bred oppgang på Oslo Børs mandag ledet an av oljerelaterte aksjer og flere shippingaksjer.

I shippingsektoren på Oslo Børs mandag har LPG-rederiene BW LPG og Avance Gas best utvikling. Førstnevnte legger frem kvartalsrapport tirsdag, der konsensus er ebitda på 182 millioner dollar og nettoresultat på 124 millioner dollar.

Pareto Securities' estimater på ebitda og resultat pr aksje ligger rundt fem prosent over konsensus. Meglerhuset venter en sterk guiding for fjerde kvartal 2023, og tror fokuset vil være på en sterk start i 2024. Pareto modellerer for tiden en spotsnittrate på 50.000 dollar pr dag i 2024.

Fearnley Securities har også tredjekvartalsestimater litt over konsensus, og ser en oppside i deres estimater for fjerde kvartal 2023 og første kvartal 2024. For fjerde kvartal antar Fearnley "konservativt" en spotsnittrate på 80.000 dollar pr dag gitt at rederne ofte dekker inn på vei opp og estimerer resultat pr aksje på 1,02 dollar, mot konsensus på 1,09 dollar.

BW LPG er opp 1,9 prosent til 167,80 kroner, mens Avance Gas er opp 2,9 prosent til 162,80 kroner.

Fantastisk det da. Snitt inntjening i Q2 var 52000 USD. Spotratene har vel ikke vært under 80000 USD i Q3?. Ser av pres fra Q2 så er 84% covered at 65000.
Basert på det, tipper jeg 1,1 USD per aksje i Q3 og 2 USD for Q4.
Så ser vi imorgen

Fantastisk det da. Snitt inntjening i Q2 var 52000 USD. Spotratene har vel ikke vært under 80000 USD i Q3?. Ser av pres fra Q2 så er 84% covered at 65000.
Basert på det, tipper jeg 1,1 USD per aksje i Q3 og 2 USD for Q4.
Så ser vi imorgen

Sånn har jeg og forstått det. Q4 vil bli kruttsterkt!

Feil

Både DNB og Pareto opplyser at nesten alr er spot i BWLPG (og AGAS)

DnB tipper snittrater på 64700 det er 4000 over q1 som hadde over 10 kr i utbytte, tror på det samme og en eps på 1;05-1,1 us så rundt 12 kr i utbytte håper jeg på. Og guiding q1 blir jo mye bedre med de ratene vi har hatt i det siste kan vi håpe på 75000 i snitt og litt info om nye årskontrakter rundt 55000. Eirik Havaldsen i Pareto sa at snitt på 80000 er ikke priset inn i aksjen så tror vi skal opp i morgen

Mye fixed av det jeg forstår. Res imorgen er nok ihht til forventning og som guiding fra Q2

Har BW LPG mye båter i spotten eller er det meste bundet opp på kontrakter?

DNB Markets Q3 preview

Q3e EBITDA 4% above consensus

Ahead of the Q3 results (due before market open on 14 November), we expect BW LPG to
report a TCE income of USD234m, 3% above Bloomberg consensus, on an average rate of
USD64.7k/day. Our TCE income estimate also includes earnings from trading activity. This runs
down to our Q3e adj. EBITDA of USD188m, 4% above consensus. For Q4, we model USD85k/
day in sailed-in rates, and our USD239m EBITDA is 22% above Bloomberg consensus’
USD196m, which leaves upside potential to the Q4 guidance.

Shipping Morning Report

LPG: Following a sharp increase in freight rates on the back of issues in the Panama Canal and strong USG exports, VLGC freight rates have stabilised at around USD 137k/d, rising 4% w/w yesterday. In the AG, there have already been reports of 4 confirmed fixtures for December – which is unusual as fixtures seldom is done this early there. This points to a continued strong market moving forward, and the Panama situation may lead to a theoretically longer position list in the East as more vessels will have to sail via Suez or the Cape. Hence, we may see freight rates in the East trading at a discount to the West going forward.

The momentum is also strong in the West, and the position list for December remains firm with only one available vessel in the first half and a handful for the entire month. As the market digest the Panama issues, we are now seeing that every vessel in the West is ballasting via Suez or the Cape.

Hva DNB estimerer trenger jo ikke bli fasit. Men fint med oppløftende pekepinn. Kan huske på at de oppgir utbytte i us dollar og om q2 hadde blitt utbet med dagens kurs, ville d blitt nesten 5% høyere nå enn ved q2.
Om f.eks det blir 1usd nå, har man fort 11-12 kr nå (11,2 pr idag)

11+15? Råtips!

DnB mener at Bwlpg skal betale ut 26 nok de neste 2 kvartalene . Om det blir 13 + 13 eller 10 + 16 , ja det må vi vente til 14.11,23 .
Penger på bok blir det i alle tilfeller .

Når q3 ventetiden føles lang, så er q4 en uendelighet til i d perdpektivet. Men spennende usikter tross noe turbulens. Ikke leng siden "sjokket" og noteringer nede på 113. 1mnd senere har en 173. Us notering venter så 2024 virker å bli bra. Men tar et step av gangen.

Men Q4 blir vel mer enn det :-) Vesentlig mer

Ventetiden for å få i klartekst hva utbyttet for q3 blir på, føles lang. Så ser frem til tirsdag i neste uke og få fadtslått. Har vært snakk om mulig 10-12 kr.

Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
*Panama Canal Queue Jumper Pays Record $4 Million to Skip Line*

VLGC delays are rising, now 16 ships waiting @ a 6.7 day avg

Ie, VLGC Pyxis Pioneer from FE to USG made a 90°-turn at PanCan, now heading south WC SAm

Spot still at amazing levels ~$138k/d w FFAs still in contango

Denne redusering av fart gjennom Panamakanalen, påvirker ikke fraktratene også, som en kompensasjon for lengere fraktvei osv. ?

By reservation only: Panama Canal slot breaks new record as unbooked ships turned away

Local agency stops tracking canal queues as reservation required

By Eric Priante Martin in Miami

A reservation to transit the Panama Canal has broken a new record amid a crisis that has led officials to turn away all ships without a pre-booked slot.

The situation comes as the Panama Canal Authority, which runs the century-old waterway, has taken increasingly drastic measures to confront a water level crisis that had already cut traffic flows.

A booking slot auctioned on Wednesday has fetched a record price of just under $4m, Flex LNG chief executive Oystein Kalleklev said on a conference call with analysts.

The executive, whose company owns a fleet of LNG carriers, said fees bring the total cost to around $4.5m.

“This means a lot of ships need to take longer routes from US, which is now the world’s biggest LNG exporter and by far the biggest LPG exporter, via Suez or Cape of Good Hope to the main end consumer markets in Asia,” he said on a subsequent LinkedIn post.

The executive, who is also chief executive of LPG carrier owner Avance Gas, said longer distances mean fewer ships available in the market.

The canal authority confirmed that the record was achieved at $3.9m for a northbound LPG carrier that is scheduled for a northbound transit from the Pacific to the Atlantic that will take place on 15 November.

“Auction prices are determined by market dynamics, serving as an invaluable tool to offer options to our customers who may otherwise not have secured reservations,” the authority said.

In October auctions, bids generally ranged from $100,000 to $800,000, with three surpassing $1m.

“Auction prices vary based on a multitude of factors,” the authority said. “These factors include internal considerations such as waiting times and queue lengths, as well as external elements like charter rates and bunker prices. Additionally, the specific preferences and needs of individual customers, which may not be fully captured by the route value model, can also influence auction outcomes.”

The previous record, set only last week, was $2.85m, as TradeWinds reported.

The new high follows measures that included a one-week shutdown of the booking system and the mounting restrictions on how many ships can pass through the canal.

This week, shipping agency Leth Agencies stopped publishing waiting times after the canal officials abruptly announced they would no longer accept vessels in the waterway without previous bookings.

“As long as only booked vessels are allowed to transit, we will not be publishing the waiting time, since waiting time only accounts for non-booked vessels,” said Leth Agencies in a report to clients.

“In other words, a vessel arriving at Panama will wait as long time as it takes for the vessel to secure a booking.”

On Friday, the agency’s report showed waits lasting up to 10 days. Earlier this year the queue had reached as high as 21 days, but many ships have already started avoiding the canal altogether rather than twiddle their thumbs off the Panamanian coast.

TradeWinds reported earlier on Wednesday that two LPG carriers turned around within miles of the canal over the weekend.

The Panama Canal has been beset by an annual rainy season that has been anything but. TradeWinds’ Green Seas newsletter has reported that last month had the lowest rainfall level for any October since records began, with two months to go before the annual dry season, as the effects of climate change impact the supply chain.

The dry spell has hammered water levels in Gatun Lake, a key source of water for the canal.

Panamanian authorities announced at the end of October that they would further ratchet down booking slots from the 32 vessels per day announced in June to 25 on 3 November, which fell to 25 on Sunday.

The number of booking slots falls to 18 on 1 February. In normal years, 36 ships travel through the canal each day.(Copyright)