ABG’s köprekomendation
ABG kliv in igår o rekade Vicore Pharma.
här är deras kommentar.
ABG
BUY, VICO.ST: SP, SEK 31.85; TP, SEK 65.00 (0.00)
A giant in the making
Potential game-changer in multi-blockbuster indication IPF
Prime large-cap pharma takeout target in due course
Coverage initiated with a BUY and TP of SEK 65/share
Superior and differentiated drug in USD >3bn indication
We initiate coverage on Vicore with a BUY rating and a TP of SEK 65/share. Vicore is a Swedish biotech focused on the development of new therapies for severe lung diseases and related indications, with a primary focus on idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Beyond the promising interim data presented in Q1’22 for its lead candidate C21 in IPF, a multi-blockbuster indication, we highlight three more reasons to like Vicore. First, C21’s safety and efficacy profile looks superior to, and differentiated from, not only the two incumbent drugs in IPF but also key competing drugs in development. Second, C21 and follow-on candidates target a piece of human biology prevalent across multiple orphan & non-orphan diseases, with three indications already in clinical trials (IPF, PAH, and COVID-19) and multiple realistic expansion opportunities. Third, Vicore has a seasoned management team and the right owners, including both specialised & generalist institutional investors to help drive C21 to market
First-in-class drug in large-cap pharma areas of interest
The case rests on the IPF opportunity, where Q1’22 interim data from its ongoing Ph 2 AIR study showed not only a reduction in the progressive decline in lung function seen with the current standard-of-care blockbuster drugs Ofev and Esbriet (combined annual sales of USD 3.6bn), but also a reversal and meaningful improvement in lung function, essentially a first in IPF. The data is immature and from a small number of patients, but if confirmed in subsequent Ph 2b and 3 clinical trials, C21 looks set to be a potentially paradigm-changing drug in IPF, an indication that has attracted considerable prior large-cap pharma M&A interest.
A long-term BUY, TP SEK 65/share (100% upside)
We model peak de-risked/risked sales of C21 in IPF of USD 3.6bn/730m and in PAH of USD 260m/26m in ’34e, and value Vicore at an EV of USD 480m (USD 3.3bn fully de-risked) using a DCF model. We leave all other programmes as unvalued optionalities. We arrive at a risk-adjusted TP of SEK 65/share (415/share fully de-risked), implying ~100% upside.
här är deras kommentar.
ABG
BUY, VICO.ST: SP, SEK 31.85; TP, SEK 65.00 (0.00)
A giant in the making
Potential game-changer in multi-blockbuster indication IPF
Prime large-cap pharma takeout target in due course
Coverage initiated with a BUY and TP of SEK 65/share
Superior and differentiated drug in USD >3bn indication
We initiate coverage on Vicore with a BUY rating and a TP of SEK 65/share. Vicore is a Swedish biotech focused on the development of new therapies for severe lung diseases and related indications, with a primary focus on idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Beyond the promising interim data presented in Q1’22 for its lead candidate C21 in IPF, a multi-blockbuster indication, we highlight three more reasons to like Vicore. First, C21’s safety and efficacy profile looks superior to, and differentiated from, not only the two incumbent drugs in IPF but also key competing drugs in development. Second, C21 and follow-on candidates target a piece of human biology prevalent across multiple orphan & non-orphan diseases, with three indications already in clinical trials (IPF, PAH, and COVID-19) and multiple realistic expansion opportunities. Third, Vicore has a seasoned management team and the right owners, including both specialised & generalist institutional investors to help drive C21 to market
First-in-class drug in large-cap pharma areas of interest
The case rests on the IPF opportunity, where Q1’22 interim data from its ongoing Ph 2 AIR study showed not only a reduction in the progressive decline in lung function seen with the current standard-of-care blockbuster drugs Ofev and Esbriet (combined annual sales of USD 3.6bn), but also a reversal and meaningful improvement in lung function, essentially a first in IPF. The data is immature and from a small number of patients, but if confirmed in subsequent Ph 2b and 3 clinical trials, C21 looks set to be a potentially paradigm-changing drug in IPF, an indication that has attracted considerable prior large-cap pharma M&A interest.
A long-term BUY, TP SEK 65/share (100% upside)
We model peak de-risked/risked sales of C21 in IPF of USD 3.6bn/730m and in PAH of USD 260m/26m in ’34e, and value Vicore at an EV of USD 480m (USD 3.3bn fully de-risked) using a DCF model. We leave all other programmes as unvalued optionalities. We arrive at a risk-adjusted TP of SEK 65/share (415/share fully de-risked), implying ~100% upside.