rater

Slettet bruker
FLNG 12.11.2018 kl 14:32 3396


East of Suez 155-165'cbm 150 000 120 000 35 000 150 000
West of Suez 155-165'cbm 150 000 100 000 44 000 150 000
1 yr TC 155-165'cbm 90 000 90 000 52 000 90 000

Fearnleys uke 45 og FLNG ligger muligens 15 - 20000 over det
Latterlig med 14,35 - 14,40
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 10:36 Du må logge inn for å svare
pipelort
12.11.2018 kl 16:35 3311

Ja, jeg skjønner meg ikke helt på det...
addyfred
12.11.2018 kl 16:39 3290

Emisjonen ga oss en økning i både flåtestørrelse og NAV. Det emisjonen også ga oss, var en short term dilution på earnings.

Ikke så mye å sette seg inn i før man begynner å forstå. Er man langsiktig så skal ikke de kortsiktige svingningene så mye å si. Eller? ;)
Redigert 12.11.2018 kl 16:39 Du må logge inn for å svare
delta
12.11.2018 kl 18:02 3180

Emisjonen kan også ha gitt noe kortsiktig aksjeoverheng ved at kortsiktige emisjonister vil ut av aksjen - noe som kan ha medført salgspress en tid nå og kanskje en stund til framover.
Slettet bruker
12.11.2018 kl 18:41 3130

Nå var den på 14,25 og har senere vært på 15,60, så det tviler jeg på. Når du ser på handlen, så blir den presset ned, straks noen prøver å kjøpe. Så det er vel helst noen som har en agenda, før tall slipp og for å presse de belånte Selv solgte jeg forrige uke, men syntes den var " billig " i dag og kjøpte meg inn igjen, så selv er jeg fornøyd.
Redigert 12.11.2018 kl 18:46 Du må logge inn for å svare
really
15.11.2018 kl 11:38 2878

Det kan også ha noe med den raske gassprisstigningen vi ser i US nå, den vil smitte over på LNG og gjøre arbitrasjen mot asia litt dårligere. Det er imidlertid også meldt om høyere gasspriser i Asia.

FLNG kursen er dessuten mye basert på 2019 og 20, siden de bare har fått levert en liten del av flåten. Og av 4 skip de har i drift er bare 2 i spot. Kan se ut som oppgangen i høst kom litt overraskende på dem.

Når så mye er forventningsbasert er dagens børsklima, der det ser ut som mange tror dette går rett til bunns, krevende for FLNG.
kodenavn
15.11.2018 kl 12:08 2827

Det er en veldig positiv artikkel om LNG i siste nr. av Kapital i dag, side 144
Slettet bruker
15.11.2018 kl 12:25 2777

Gassprisen øker som følge av at etterspørselen er høy og lagrene er lave i henhold til gjennomsnittet. Når det da meldes om mulig kald vinter vil prisen øke. Kina blandt andre trenger LNG til fyring gjennom vinteren. Dette får de gjennom import siden mulighetene for lagring på land ikke er i henhold til forbruket. Faren med at prisen på naturgass øker så voldsomt er at andre alternativ blir mer lønnsomme. Etter som jeg har forstått er det derimot ikke bare å svitsje fra LNG til noe annet. Mulig andre vet mer?
Blir og spennende å se hvordan luftkvaliteten i Kina blir over vinteren. De kjører vel mer kullkraft, og leste et sted at de ikke skulle stenge ned ALU/stål produksjonen gjennom vinteren.
Slettet bruker
15.11.2018 kl 12:39 2746

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/Tankers-storing-LNG-in-Asian-waters-double-as-pre-winter-demand-disappoints--27611473/
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Tankers storing liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asian waters have more than doubled in number since late October as traders have been caught off guard by warmer-than-expected temperatures that have capped demand and pulled down prices.
Spot market demand ahead of winter has been slowed by the forecasts for warmer temperatures this year in North Asia, with onshore storage tanks filling up.

"People were expecting China to buy as much as last year in the spot market, but the weather so far has been quite mild and I don't think they were anticipating that," a Singapore-based LNG trader said.

LNG prices last year climbed steadily from mid-July to January as China's gasification push for winter heating sparked higher imports. But this year, buyers from the world's top natural gas importer - via pipeline and tanker - have been spreading out their purchases more.

Now about 15 to 20 LNG tankers holding at least 2 million cubic metres of LNG worth more than $400 million at spot market prices are floating in Asian waters, industry sources said. That's up from a half-dozen tankers being used for storage in Asia three weeks ago.

Globally, the number of such LNG tankers stands at 20 to 30, one of the sources said.

This has helped to drive up LNG tanker rates to record highs, the ship broking and trading sources said.

Most of the traders storing cargoes in the tankers are "seeking better winter pricing ... holding out against rising charter rates to achieve an acceptable profit on the molecules," shipbroking firm Braemar said in a weekly LNG report last week.

This is "creating pain for those producers who are still forced to lift cargoes from terminals which are approaching tank tops."

Refinitiv Eikon data shows at least eight tankers storing LNG in Singapore waters while two were in Malaysian waters.

More than five vessels that had been storing LNG are now on the move or have discharged the cargoes, the data shows.

Storing LNG on tankers out at sea, unlike crude oil, is generally seen as a risky bet, given the high costs of storage and the fact that cargoes degrade over time by evaporating.

As with other commodities, the play is typically triggered by a market structure known as contango, in which prices for immediate delivery are cheaper than later months.

The contango, which was at about $1 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) last month, has since narrowed to about 50 cents or less, traders said.

The last time LNG was put into floating storage on a large scale was in 2014, though the number of tankers was lower, the Singapore LNG trader said.

Not all the cargoes are stranded without buyers.

Some of the companies likely secured the tankers during the summer when shipping rates were far lower, and stored them in anticipation of a pick-up in prices, traders said.

(Reporting by Jessica Jaganathan; Editing by Tom Hogue)

By Jessica Jaganathan
Slettet bruker
15.11.2018 kl 12:55 2705

RS
Tja det er vel ikke sikkert. Tørr og bulk går ned bla Kina har redusert kull og jernmalm,men ikke vet jeg. Det som er sikkert er ratene på LNG, Så jeg holder på mitt, da jeg synes handels mønstret tydelig viser at den holdes nede. Hadde en plan om å selge i dag på 13,85/90 å plukke billigere, men det skjedde så fort at det rakk jeg ikke. Men det er 3,5 timer igjen.
Ha en fin dag alle.
Slettet bruker
15.11.2018 kl 13:15 2675

Er ikke spesielt urolig jeg heller. Har ikke rare posisjonen enda.Leser i innlegget over at temeperaturen i Kina er høyere enn forventet nå på høsten, noe som kan forklare nedgangen fra 16. Dette vil sikkert merkes på ratene. Har tradet denne en del før, men handler nå mere long term og er derfor fornøyd med snitt under emi. Selv om vi har en varmere høst i 2018 så endrer dette lite da forcast er at LNG etterspørselen skal dobles i årene som kommer. Det er dette JF har sett for lenge siden, og jeg støtter meg på hans kompetanse. Den er tross alt atskillig høyere enn min eller andre her på forumet.
Redigert 15.11.2018 kl 13:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
15.11.2018 kl 13:22 2659

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/cheniere-bets-15-billion-on-world-gas-demand-despite-tariff-war#gs.Ud9hm2k

Cheniere Bets $15 Billion on World Gas Demand Despite Tariff
November 15 2018, 6:14 AM

(Bloomberg) -- Wearing a hardhat and orange vest, Ari Aziz climbs metal steps under a blazing sun until he’s standing atop an 180-foot-high tank in Corpus Christi, Texas. It’s big enough, he proudly points out, to hold a jumbo jet placed diagonally.
Aziz is supervising more than 100 workers who form a kind of SWAT team for Cheniere Energy Inc. They’re checking every valve and pipe that feeds the sparkling new tank. On Wednesday, Cheniere said it started producing liquefied natural gas for the first time at the plant. It plans to fill up the tank with 43 million gallons of super-chilled LNG that’s slated to be shipped to gas-hungry countries like China -- a rosy prospect unless trade tensions escalate between the world’s two biggest economies.

Less than three years ago, the lower 48 states exported zero LNG. Now, there’s an abundance of domestic gas from shale, and it’s still relatively cheap, despite the spike in U.S. futures prices on Wednesday. America is shipping more abroad, moving the country closer to becoming a global gas power. That means greater influence in setting prices, and in new markets for domestic producers struggling with an overabundance.
Trade War

The dark cloud throwing its shadow over this historic development is the 10 percent Chinese tariff on U.S. LNG cargoes, imposed in September after the Trump administration levied tariffs on some Chinese goods. The industry’s looming fear is that come January, China will raise the LNG levy to 25 percent, essentially wiping out the discount for buying super cheap shale gas, according to the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas, a Washington industry group.

China is shifting to natural gas from Russia, a trend that could accelerate and drag European buyers into the turmoil. The question is whether the growing U.S. supply of LNG will be cheap enough to reduce Europe’s reliance on piped Russian gas, a move urged by President Donald Trump as a tool to weaken Russia’s influence.

Still, the first tanker carrying U.S. LNG since the tariff was imposed made it to China earlier this week. Sales to the country are up more than 50 percent year over year “and that’s not slowing down,’’ Cheniere Chief Executive Officer Jack Fusco said in an interview at the company’s Houston headquarters. “Our product is extremely hot.’’
Export Sites

The new $15 billion Corpus Christi terminal marks Cheniere’s second LNG export site -- they have another on Louisiana’s Gulf Coast -- and the third in the continental U.S., counting Dominion Energy Inc.’s terminal in Maryland. In the next two years, the U.S. is slated to have six operating terminals, accounting for 17 percent of global capacity. That would make it the world’s third-largest LNG supplier after Qatar and Australia.

Fusco said he expects China to continue to buy U.S. LNG, noting Cheniere already has a contract to deliver it this winter to state-backed China National Petroleum Corp. A company spokesman declined to comment on the prospect of higher tariffs.

More than a decade in the making, Cheniere’s Corpus Christi plant tells the tale of the changing fortunes of the natural gas business. It was conceived as a terminal to import fuel, but the domestic shale boom scrapped those plans and the site stood vacant for years.
Shale Boom

In 2012, the company began revamping it as an export facility when it became apparent the shale boom was flooding the U.S. with excess gas, pushing down prices. The plant will rely in part on piped gas from the nearby Permian that’s produced as a byproduct of oil fracking. The gas is chilled to 260 degrees below zero Fahrenheit (minus 162 Celsius), turning it into a liquid that can be shipped overseas on tankers.
Demand for natural gas is growing globally partly for environmental reasons. It’s a fossil fuel, but it burns cleaner than oil or coal. Global LNG demand is on track to climb 8.5 percent this year to 308 million tons from last year, and surge to 450 million tons by 2030, according to Bloomberg NEF.

“The shale revolution in the U.S. changed the whole picture because we were an importing country and we are now an exporting country,” said Zhen Zhu, an economist with engineering and consulting firm C.H. Guernsey in Oklahoma City. “We’re now experiencing that fundamentally changing the whole market.”
Price Fluctuations

In the short term, Cheniere will have to navigate pricing challenges. The U.S. is heading into winter with the lowest stockpiles in 15 years. That threatens to send gas prices spiking during a cold snap, potentially dissuading buyers in Europe or Asia.
But Fusco sees demand growing long term, justifying plans to expand the Corpus Christi site. Earlier this year, the company gave the green light to build a third liquefaction plant there.

“I believe we can double the size of the company fairly easily,” Fusco said.

He’s got one other goal: to get the company’s stock into the S&P 500 Index. Cheniere’s shares have surged more than 150 percent since a low in February 2016, giving it a market capitalization of more than $15 billion.
Slettet bruker
15.11.2018 kl 13:52 2612

Det har han og den varme høsten, kan fort bli en frossen vinter. Alle prognoser sier vi nå skal få en kald tørr vinter, pga stort snøfall i Sibir i oktober. Alt det er avhengig av vind, så hva om den vinden snur mot Kina ? Da tenker jeg det blir liv i rater, som allerede er høye.
Men det tar ikke vekk poenget mitt om du ser på handelen, noen prøver å selge ned hele tiden. Nå lå den lenge på 13,65 - 13,70 Så gikk den opp til 13,75 og da noen stadige lure poster på 13,70.
Sånn er det bare, må ikke la seg bli skremt vekk.
Redigert 15.11.2018 kl 13:56 Du må logge inn for å svare
really
16.11.2018 kl 07:30 2433

Så lenge lagerkapasiteten er så liten i forhold til forbruket skal det mye til at vi skal få en varig nedgang i fraktprisen siden LNG må bestilles lang tid i forveien. Men kortsiktige svingninger kan bli store.
Slettet bruker
16.11.2018 kl 08:27 2358

Det er sant. Kinesisk lagerkapasitet er altfor liten i forhold til etterspørselen. Grunnen til at spotratene gikk kraftig så tidlig på året er at Kina har sikret seg laster i påvente av vinteren. Dette gjør de for å unngå å gå på blemmen med manglende reserver slik som i fjor. Etterspørselen gjennom vinteren er fortsatt ventet å være ganske jevn pga. små buffere.
Når det gjelder toll barrierer ser det ut til at amerikansk lng går mer til europa og australsk lng går til Kina.

Ellers kan vi lese at IEA mener lng vil overgå kull med årene som kommer: https://allafrica.com/stories/201811150417.html

There are indications the world is fast moving into gas as major source of energy with a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) saying that Natural gas is expected to overtake coal as the world's second largest energy source after oil by 2030.

The Paris-based IEA said in its 'World Energy Outlook 2018' that energy demand would grow by more than a quarter between 2017 and 2040.

Global gas demand would increase by 1.6 percent a year to 2040 and would be 45 percent higher by then than today, it said.

The estimates are based on the IEA's "New Policies Scenario" that takes into account legislation and policies to reduce emissions and fight climate change. They also assume more energy efficiencies in fuel use, buildings and other factors.

The IEI, in its 'New Policies Scenario' stated: "Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the New Policies Scenario, overtaking coal by 2030 to become the second-largest source of energy after oil".

The IEI also said that China, already the world's biggest oil and coal importer, would soon become the largest importer of gas and net imports would approach the level of the European Union by 2040.

According to Reuters calculations, based on China's General Administration of Customs data, China has already overtaken Japan as the world's top natural gas importer.

Although China is the world's third-biggest user of natural gas behind the United States and Russia, it has to import about 40 percent of its needs as local production cannot keep pace.

Emerging economies in Asia would account for about half of total global gas demand growth and their share of LNG imports would double to 60 percent by 2040, the IEA report said.

"Although talk of a global gas market similar to that of oil is premature, LNG trade has expanded substantially in volume since 2010 and has reached previously isolated markets," it added.
d12m
16.11.2018 kl 11:00 2239

Med El Nino så kan det fort bli en mild vinter..

Ei heller sier alle prognoser kald og tørr vinter. Det er gjerne kun én, evt et fåtall, som støtter ditt syn?
Redigert 16.11.2018 kl 11:02 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
20.11.2018 kl 13:14 1982

Nå har det seg sånn at det har snødd mye i Sibir i Oktober. Det betyr statistisk kaldere vær, så gjenstår det å se om kulda går øst eller vest.
larserne
20.11.2018 kl 13:26 1960

Det er kortsiktig å tenke på været... Den lange trenden er pågående og videre utbygging av infrastruktur for å erstatte mer forurensende energi. Konsumet av LNG og andre energi kilder vil øke proposjonalt med utbygging av ny/mer infrastruktur. Folk holder jo på å kveles i mange større byer, og da spesielt fjerne Østen med India / Kina i spissen.