GOGL -Vi er i startgropen i en supersyklus (5)

Golden Goat
GOGL 13.12.2022 kl 20:07 73701

Lyst til å være med i en tettere dialog rundt GOGL og den fundamentale utviklingen i tørrbulkmarkedet? Vi har åpnet en discord-chat du kan bli med i, enten ved å kommentere eller bare følge med på det som blir sagt.

Link: https://linktr.ee/realgoldengoat
Redigert 16.02.2023 kl 20:22 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
20.12.2022 kl 10:23 8957

FFA Jan opp over 20% nå til $11125 :-)
Kenevil
20.12.2022 kl 09:59 8777

Fremstår som et kjøpstidspunkt nå for meg...
Nå er jeg klar for neste års oppgang!
nman
20.12.2022 kl 09:25 8930

FFA helgrønn nå :-)
https://www.braemarscreen.com/
Realistoptimist
19.12.2022 kl 16:47 9218

Nå har jeg tydeligvis fulgt med dårlig idag, men er det noen forklaring som tilsier 4% fall?
nman
19.12.2022 kl 13:45 9272

Rekordmange LNG-nybygg bestilt i 2022 - fint for oss!
https://splash247.com/record-170-lng-carriers-ordered-in-2022/
KJEPET
19.12.2022 kl 10:34 9497

Det er godt å se at #1 er med oss tørrlastfolk igjen :-)
https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl/status/1604753514516848641
nman
19.12.2022 kl 09:54 9459

Oppsummering for capesize/panamax sektorene:

Capesize
The Capesize sector saw a surge, especially in the Atlantic since midweek. More cargo from West Africa came to the market and subsequently pushed the Brazil to Qingdao run to a higher level. However, fixtures were lacking as very limited prompt ballasters could make the loading dates. In the North Atlantic, the transatlantic and fronthaul runs moved sharply higher amid a lack of tonnage in the region. Laycan window and the premium from breaching International Navigating Limits were taken into consideration. Meanwhile, sentiment suggested a year-end push. In the Pacific, the West Australia to Qingdao trade remained fairly active, the route being marked at $8.63 on Friday. Overall the average of the 5 Timecharter routes was priced at $18,312 by the end of proceedings, a week-on-week increase in excess of $4,000.

Panamax

A continuation of the previous week, with a slow but steady rise in rates in the Atlantic. The North Atlantic again witnessed a tightening of tonnage supply, with fronthaul trades ex US Gulf prevalent. Coupled with a better volume of transatlantic mineral demand, the positive sentiment endured. $20,000 was agreed on an 82,000-dwt delivery Continent for a trip via NCSA redelivery Rotterdam, whilst an 81,000-dwt delivery Rotterdam achieved low $24,000s for a trip via US Gulf redelivery Far East. Asia struggled to get going this week with pressure mounting from the very start as the tonnage count grew. This was pitched against a lacklustre demand book and rates drifted consequently. Despite the gloom in Asia, there was plenty of period discussion and support from the FFA market, with reports of deals concluded proving to be a viable option for some owners. An 82,000-dwt delivery South China agreed $16,000 for about 11/14 months.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-capesizes-surge-forward/
nman
17.12.2022 kl 07:09 9990

BEIJING, Dec 16 (Reuters) - China will focus on stabilising its $17-trillion economy in 2023 and step up policy adjustments to ensure key targets are hit, said a statement following an agenda-setting meeting, as Beijing scrambles to cushion the impact of a surge in COVID infections.

Top leaders reiterated that China will stick to its principle of "homes are for living in, not for speculation", and pledged to support strong housing demand, the statement said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-it-will-step-up-support-economy-2023-amid-covid-pains-2022-12-16/
Golden Goat
16.12.2022 kl 23:01 21004

Slenger på min egen synsing, selv om den ikke ekplisitt ble etterspurt;
At Kina velger å sentralisere sin anskaffelse av jernmalm (eller andre råvarer), noe de har arbeidet med en stund nå, er noe som er fundamentalt stikk i strid med alle de som tenker at Kina snart skal 'slå av lyset'. Dette er et grep som Kina tar som følge at de importerte varer inn i landet kan ha en utilsiktet høy pris (og ikke minst veldig varierende) og at det forekommer en god del spekulasjoner i markedet med fremtidskontrakter som gjør at markedet, hva angår prising av råvarer blir suboptimalt; Kina ønsker at det skal slås sammen. Dette hjelper med sklalaøkonomi samt forhandlingsmakt på bestillingene som samlet gir mer råvare for pengene.
nman
16.12.2022 kl 20:57 21107

WQ økte med nye 330k aksjer i går, mens MW dekket seg inn til under 0.5%.
https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG396372051
nman
16.12.2022 kl 12:44 21575

Kina er klare for å sentralisere innkjøp av jernmalm i et forsøk på å få ned prisene.

China's new state-run agency to start iron ore purchases -Bloomberg News.
BEIJING, Dec 16 (Reuters) - China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), a new state-owned agency, is set to be the world's biggest iron ore buyer as soon as next year, when it will start buying for about 20 of the largest Chinese steelmakers, Bloomberg News reported.

CMRG was set up this year to buy raw materials for the country's giant domestic steel industry, as Beijing steps up efforts to increase control over the natural resources needed to feed its economy.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-new-state-run-agency-start-iron-ore-purchases-bloomberg-news-2022-12-16/
The Godfather
16.12.2022 kl 12:16 21676

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Baltic Capesize-indeksen er opp 5,40 prosent til 18.312 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange.
KJEPET
16.12.2022 kl 12:10 21658

China klarer ikke å fylle opp stållagrene. Nok en uke med nedgang.


https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/mmi-daily-iron-ore-index-report-december-16-2022/
nman
16.12.2022 kl 11:29 21747

Kinacapen opp 20,12% i dag.
Capesize $/day 14018 +2348
nman
16.12.2022 kl 10:13 21830

Power plants, steel mills and factories are shooting up in India and Southeast Asia like mushrooms.
...
I am nowhere near from writing off China – in fact I’d argue from Q2 next year we will witness a massive spike in dry bulk and tanker earnings as the world’s most populous nation bounces back in a big way. However, what 2022 has taught shipping is that life without double-digit growth from the People’s Republic can be manageable.
https://splash247.com/2022-the-year-shipping-made-do-without-china/
nman
16.12.2022 kl 08:52 21931

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Global coal consumption is set to rise to an all-time high in 2022 and remain at similar levels in the next few years if stronger efforts are not made to move to a low-carbon economy, a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.
High gas prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and consequent disruptions to supply have led some countries to turn to relatively cheaper coal this year.
Heatwaves and droughts in some regions have also driven up electricity demand and reduced hydropower, while nuclear generation has also been very weak, especially in Europe, where France had to shut down nuclear reactors for maintenance.
The IEA's annual report on coal forecasts global coal use is set to rise by 1.2% this year, exceeding 8 billion tonnes in a single year for the first time and a previous record set in 2013.
It also predicts that coal consumption will remain flat at that level to 2025 as falls in mature markets are offset by continued strong demand in emerging Asian economies.
This means coal will continue to be the global energy system’s largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions by far.
The largest increase in coal demand is expected to be in India at 7%, followed by the European Union at 6% and China at 0.4%.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-coal-consumption-reach-all-time-high-this-year-iea-2022-12-16/
KJEPET
16.12.2022 kl 08:25 22044

Ser ut som de venter til helga ja :-) Nye muligheter i dag...
fattigstakkar
15.12.2022 kl 16:00 22703

vi får håpe. kjøpte litt sblk som er opp 1% mens GOGL var opp 6%
KJEPET
15.12.2022 kl 15:54 22718

De har bare kommet seg til vorspielet i US. Vent til de begynner med cognac'n litt senere i kveld :-)
Redigert 15.12.2022 kl 15:57 Du må logge inn for å svare
fattigstakkar
15.12.2022 kl 15:50 22721

Veldig hyggelig dag i GOGL, men hvorfor stiger den så mye mer enn alle andre bulkaksjer? Grei dag å ta litt gevinst.
Redigert 15.12.2022 kl 15:51 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
15.12.2022 kl 15:36 22786

Husket dere penskoa i dag?

Blir frem med cognac'n i kveld :-)
Redigert 15.12.2022 kl 15:40 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
15.12.2022 kl 14:58 22856

Nei, ratene i dag er ikke spesielt sterke. Men utsiktene for Q1 begynner å bli sterke, som normalt er lavsesong.

I dag er jeg og alle andre blitt invitert til shippingfest på wall street. Jeg gleder meg :-)
vulkan
15.12.2022 kl 14:52 22876

Er ikke ratene sterkere en ventet til denne tiden av året å være?
Hva er "galt" med frakt markedet?
KJEPET
15.12.2022 kl 12:50 23075

Utbyttet som ble reinvestert for en uke siden på 82.- bidrar allerede fint på VPS'n :-)
The Godfather
15.12.2022 kl 12:28 23156

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Baltic Capesize-indeksen er opp 21,56 prosent til 17.374 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange.
nman
15.12.2022 kl 11:15 23289

Dec 15 (Reuters) - Analysts at J.P.Morgan on Thursday raised their 2023 growth forecast for China's gross domestic product by 30 basis points to 4.3% as the world's second largest economy reopens from tight COVID restrictions.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/jpmorgan-hikes-chinas-2023-economic-growth-estimate-2022-12-15/
Golden Goat
15.12.2022 kl 08:49 23489

Økningen i papirmarkedet tiltar ytterligere i dag:
Product Price Change
Dec 14525 +400
Jan 11575 +1125
Q1 10191 +708
Q2 12650 +150
Cal23 14285 +279
nman
15.12.2022 kl 07:28 23565

Smitten i Kina bekymrer, men…

Chinese iron ore and steel futures edged higher on Wednesday on optimism that surging COVID-19 infections in the country would prompt stimulus measures to shore up the world’s second-largest economy.
Top steel producer China will likely map out more stimulus steps to underpin growth next year and ease disruptions caused by the relaxation of COVID-19 curbs, Reuters reported citing policy insiders and analysts.
The most-traded iron ore for May delivery on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange ended a volatile morning trade 0.6% higher at 802.50 yuan ($115.31) a tonne.
Rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.5% to 3,950 yuan a tonne.
Iron ore prices were propelled to six-month highs recently due to an improving outlook for the Chinese economy in the wake of Beijing’s pivot from its zero-COVID policy and measures to support ailing property developers.
“We believe that more accommodative policies with respect to COVID and property markets will lead to stability in demand for iron ore,” Jefferies analysts said in a Dec. 13 note.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dalian-iron-ore-edges-higher-as-china-covid-woes-spur-stimulus-hopes/
nman
15.12.2022 kl 07:21 23552

Newbuilding Ordering Activity Picks Up Pace.

Innen tørrbulk bestilles det små skip (handysize og supra).

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/newbuilding-ordering-activity-picks-up-pace-2/
ørnen
14.12.2022 kl 17:13 23928

satt i gogl fra ca 100 til 150 og ned til rettt over 130 før jeg gikk ut. Fikk ikke timet det så perfekt som du greide, det var jo en inner 10er. Som deg så ser jeg et stort potensiale i Gogl, men er usikker på inngang pga av alt det som skjer i Kina. Men skal inn igjen før sommerene. Nå kun liten lyttepost, ellers alt i Fro som kan bli spennende framover.
KJEPET
14.12.2022 kl 15:50 24044

He, he. Ikke så hissig nå, dette går fint :-) Gratulerer forresten med bra uttelling i Fro.

Så du skriver her inne på et selskap du ikke har aksjer i eller er short? Ser at du kun har skrevet på gogl tråden de siste 3 månedene. Kanskje skrive litt på Fro tråden fremover? Er du Longs i ny drakt?
Redigert 14.12.2022 kl 15:52 Du må logge inn for å svare
nman
14.12.2022 kl 15:38 24070

WQ økte shorten med 324k aksjer i går.
https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG396372051
ørnen
14.12.2022 kl 15:38 24070

Nå må du slutte å trekke konklusjoner som du ikke har dekning for. Jeg ahr kun sagt at jeg er skeptisk til Gogl på kort sikt. Derfor har jeg heller valgt Fro som så langt har vært en fantastisk reise.
KJEPET
14.12.2022 kl 14:01 24234

Ganske vågalt av ørnen og vedde mot #1 (og tilbakekjøpsprogrammet til selskapet) :-)
https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl/status/1603011250920775681
Redigert 14.12.2022 kl 14:43 Du må logge inn for å svare
hogan
14.12.2022 kl 13:39 24277

Bauxite critical material to achieve net zero, green infrastructure
Bauxite increase output by almost 2% yearly until 2030
Ser ut som trenden har startet, masse tonne mile fra Guinea til Kina
Var det femti du skal kjøpe på ørnen?
Ellers de dårlige nyhetene vil selvfølgelig fortsette å strømme på, det blir aldri skyfri himmel, det trenger vi heller ikke
Redigert 14.12.2022 kl 13:40 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
14.12.2022 kl 13:38 24280

Take off i ratene :-)
https://braemarscreen.com/