GOGL -Vi er i startgropen i en supersyklus (5)
Lyst til å være med i en tettere dialog rundt GOGL og den fundamentale utviklingen i tørrbulkmarkedet? Vi har åpnet en discord-chat du kan bli med i, enten ved å kommentere eller bare følge med på det som blir sagt.
Link: https://linktr.ee/realgoldengoat
Link: https://linktr.ee/realgoldengoat
Redigert 16.02.2023 kl 20:22
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nman
30.12.2022 kl 08:22
7247
Despite the recent price declines, commodities will still likely finish the year as the best performing asset class...," Goldman Sachs said in its 2023 commodity outlook.
stories
"From a fundamental perspective, the setup for most commodities next year is more bullish than it has been at any point since we first highlighted the supercycle in October 2020."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/coal-gas-lead-2022-commodities-rally-recession-fears-greet-new-year-2022-12-30/
stories
"From a fundamental perspective, the setup for most commodities next year is more bullish than it has been at any point since we first highlighted the supercycle in October 2020."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/coal-gas-lead-2022-commodities-rally-recession-fears-greet-new-year-2022-12-30/
nman
29.12.2022 kl 19:16
7518
WQ økte shorten med 212k i går.
https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG396372051
Nesten 6 mill aksjer short på Nasdaq pr midten av desember.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gogl/short-interest
https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG396372051
Nesten 6 mill aksjer short på Nasdaq pr midten av desember.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gogl/short-interest
KJEPET
29.12.2022 kl 13:16
7680
Bra. Vi trenger ikke bare positive utsikter, da hadde kursen vært langt høyere allerede. FFA cal23 viser nå er dyp nedgang neste år med $13.400 mot snittet for 2022 på ca. $16.300, der China har kjørt en beinhard zero COVID strategi. Snittet for de siste 10 årene er vel rundt $16-17k?, så mye eder og galle er priset inn. China har nå kastet hele zero COVID strategien på båten, og markedet forventer at det skal gå mye verre ved åpning av China. Jeg tror markedet tar grundig feil her.
Jeg ser på oppgangen i iron ore og rebar i China de siste ukene. Det går bare rett opp. I India er det også full fyr om dagen og det generelle stålmarkedet i verden er under bedring.
Jeg aksepterer at noen tror at det blir verre ved åpning av samfunnet i China. Jeg velger å tro det blir motsatt :-)
Jeg ser på oppgangen i iron ore og rebar i China de siste ukene. Det går bare rett opp. I India er det også full fyr om dagen og det generelle stålmarkedet i verden er under bedring.
Jeg aksepterer at noen tror at det blir verre ved åpning av samfunnet i China. Jeg velger å tro det blir motsatt :-)
Redigert 29.12.2022 kl 20:11
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Vampyren
29.12.2022 kl 12:35
7729
Pain
The dry bulk market could be set for a downbeat 2023 with the pain potentially extended into 2024, according to the latest quarterly dry bulk market report from Maritime Strategies International.
Behind the falling earnings picture is the faster than expected unwinding of port delays that kept the market buzzing during 2020-21, with port operations perhaps not far from approaching ‘normality’. While ballast and laden durations on specific trade flows may increase, MSI believes that any positive year on year impact on market balances in 2023 will be more than offset by reduced port delays.
The dry bulk market could be set for a downbeat 2023 with the pain potentially extended into 2024, according to the latest quarterly dry bulk market report from Maritime Strategies International.
Behind the falling earnings picture is the faster than expected unwinding of port delays that kept the market buzzing during 2020-21, with port operations perhaps not far from approaching ‘normality’. While ballast and laden durations on specific trade flows may increase, MSI believes that any positive year on year impact on market balances in 2023 will be more than offset by reduced port delays.
ørnen
28.12.2022 kl 21:43
8126
The dry bulk market could be set for a downbeat 2023 with the pain potentially extended into 2024, according to the latest quarterly dry bulk market report* from Maritime Strategies International.
Behind the falling earnings picture is the faster than expected unwinding of port delays that kept the market buzzing during 2020-21, with port operations perhaps not far from approaching ‘normality’. While ballast and laden durations on specific trade flows may increase, MSI believes that any positive year on year impact on market balances in 2023 will be more than offset by reduced port delays.
MSI forecasts an improvement in fleet efficiency next year, recognising that the process is unlikely to be linear and both COVID-19 (and the policy responses to it) and geopolitical and trade influences will continue to be factors with the potential to affect fleet utilisation in significant ways.
“To put it one way, where Capesize markets have led towards the end of this year, others will soon follow.” said Plamen Natzkoff, dry bulk analyst with MSI. “We expect a cyclical downturn in the market over the next two-three years, characterised by pronounced weakness in bulk carrier earnings driven by the continuing erosion of support factors and tepid trade growth,”
Behind the falling earnings picture is the faster than expected unwinding of port delays that kept the market buzzing during 2020-21, with port operations perhaps not far from approaching ‘normality’. While ballast and laden durations on specific trade flows may increase, MSI believes that any positive year on year impact on market balances in 2023 will be more than offset by reduced port delays.
MSI forecasts an improvement in fleet efficiency next year, recognising that the process is unlikely to be linear and both COVID-19 (and the policy responses to it) and geopolitical and trade influences will continue to be factors with the potential to affect fleet utilisation in significant ways.
“To put it one way, where Capesize markets have led towards the end of this year, others will soon follow.” said Plamen Natzkoff, dry bulk analyst with MSI. “We expect a cyclical downturn in the market over the next two-three years, characterised by pronounced weakness in bulk carrier earnings driven by the continuing erosion of support factors and tepid trade growth,”
KJEPET
28.12.2022 kl 18:53
8242
Alejandreuta
28.12.2022 kl 17:34
8337
Det er vel først etter 2023 vi vil få et bilde på hvor mye de nye reglene påvirker skrapingen, kanskje spesielt hvis ratene holder seg moderate… Personlig tror jeg ikke ratene blir moderate utover 2023
Golden Goat
28.12.2022 kl 09:57
8730
Viktig å skille mellom aggregerte tall og tall spesifikke for størrelses-segmenter. Når det kommer til skraping, så har ja; tørrbulk (i hele tørrbulkflåten) redusert skraping fra 80 i 2021 til 53 i 2022 (dette tilsvarer en reduksjon i skraping lik 34%), men når det kommer til capesize, som vi Gøgglere er interressert i, så har det derimot vært en økning fra 15 i 2021 til 20 skrapinger i 2022. Det er en økning i skrapinger på 33%. Dette tallet ser ut til å knapt øke, ettersom det har fremkommet en ny skraping de siste dager.
nman
28.12.2022 kl 08:01
8821
Tørrbulkskrapingen i år er ned ca 23% fra i fjor.
Dry Bulk and Containers have also had outstanding years, with minimal scrapping seen in both sectors during the first half of the year. As such, moving into 2023, we do expect to see more vessels enter the market for recycling from each of these sectors, especially as freight rates have cooled off considerably towards the end of this year. There are also a number of vessels trading right up to their limits (in terms of surveys) and due to older age profiles and reduced earnings, Owners are unlikely to pass further surveys and may well scrap with recycling rates still looking relatively firm (USD 350/LDT being the historical average). A reduction in the fleet size amidst relatively low newbuilding deliveries for 2023 should help charter rates recover and for various earning cycles to start again”, GMS concluded.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ship-recycling-market-could-come-back-to-life/
Dry Bulk and Containers have also had outstanding years, with minimal scrapping seen in both sectors during the first half of the year. As such, moving into 2023, we do expect to see more vessels enter the market for recycling from each of these sectors, especially as freight rates have cooled off considerably towards the end of this year. There are also a number of vessels trading right up to their limits (in terms of surveys) and due to older age profiles and reduced earnings, Owners are unlikely to pass further surveys and may well scrap with recycling rates still looking relatively firm (USD 350/LDT being the historical average). A reduction in the fleet size amidst relatively low newbuilding deliveries for 2023 should help charter rates recover and for various earning cycles to start again”, GMS concluded.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ship-recycling-market-could-come-back-to-life/
Golden Goat
27.12.2022 kl 09:19
9348
China's iron ore, coking coal and coke futures increased on December 26 as the government released positive signals to boost economy that has been heavily hit by the surging Omicron infections.
On December 26t, iron ore's most-active contract for May delivery on Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trade at 828 yuan/t ($118.77/t), up 1.35% from the previous trading session. Coking coal closed 2.98% higher at 1,898.5 yuan/t and coke rose 2.93% to 2,722.5 yuan/t.
Likewise, rebar rose 0.68% and HRC up 0.55% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on the same day.
A top adviser to the People's Bank of China on December 24 called for strengthening the country's real estate policy in light of sluggish economic growth as China pursued its zero-COVID policy this year.
Last week, China's top securities regulator gave green light for Chinese property developers to get listed through reverse mergers with already listed companies. This was a follow-up on the Central Economic Work Conference's call in December 15-16 that support should be provided for the stable growth of the real estate industry, market observers said.
The conference in mid-December set the tone that the country will shift the priority from anti-epidemic to stabilizing economic growth.
The government of Dongguan city in Guangdong province suspends the implementation of commodity housing purchase restrictions throughout the region, according to a government document on December 26.
On December 26t, iron ore's most-active contract for May delivery on Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trade at 828 yuan/t ($118.77/t), up 1.35% from the previous trading session. Coking coal closed 2.98% higher at 1,898.5 yuan/t and coke rose 2.93% to 2,722.5 yuan/t.
Likewise, rebar rose 0.68% and HRC up 0.55% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on the same day.
A top adviser to the People's Bank of China on December 24 called for strengthening the country's real estate policy in light of sluggish economic growth as China pursued its zero-COVID policy this year.
Last week, China's top securities regulator gave green light for Chinese property developers to get listed through reverse mergers with already listed companies. This was a follow-up on the Central Economic Work Conference's call in December 15-16 that support should be provided for the stable growth of the real estate industry, market observers said.
The conference in mid-December set the tone that the country will shift the priority from anti-epidemic to stabilizing economic growth.
The government of Dongguan city in Guangdong province suspends the implementation of commodity housing purchase restrictions throughout the region, according to a government document on December 26.
KJEPET
27.12.2022 kl 08:15
9351
Og #1 holder oss godt orientert om (mangel på) inngående skip til Brazil.
https://twitter.com/jhannisdahl/status/1607460368359489536
https://twitter.com/jhannisdahl/status/1607460368359489536
nman
27.12.2022 kl 07:23
9317
Og Brasil forventes rekordavling!!
Although China is expected to import near record levels of soybeans in 2023, some analysts said that a strong Brazilian harvest in MY 2022-23 is likely to cause a supply glut.
Brazil is forecast to produce over 150 million mt in MY 2022-23, with some agencies even expecting volumes to cross 160 million mt.
With the South American nation expected to consume roughly 50 million mt in domestic crush in MY 2022-23, nearly 100 million-110 million mt will be available for export.
“I am not sure the world needs 100 million mt of soybeans from Brazil in MY 2022-23,” said Kory Melby, a consultant with Brazilian Ag Consulting Services.
Although China is expected to import near record levels of soybeans in 2023, some analysts said that a strong Brazilian harvest in MY 2022-23 is likely to cause a supply glut.
Brazil is forecast to produce over 150 million mt in MY 2022-23, with some agencies even expecting volumes to cross 160 million mt.
With the South American nation expected to consume roughly 50 million mt in domestic crush in MY 2022-23, nearly 100 million-110 million mt will be available for export.
“I am not sure the world needs 100 million mt of soybeans from Brazil in MY 2022-23,” said Kory Melby, a consultant with Brazilian Ag Consulting Services.
nman
26.12.2022 kl 07:30
9738
Beijing, Shanghai residents back to work as China limps towards living with COVID.
BEIJING/SHANGHAI, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Mask-wearing Beijing and Shanghai commuters crowded subway trains on Monday, with China's two biggest cities edging closer to living with COVID-19, as millions have been infected with the largely unchecked virus across the country.
After three years of ruthless anti-coronavirus curbs, President Xi Jinping scrapped the country's zero-COVID policy of lockdowns and relentless testing this month in the face of protests and a widening outbreak.
Health experts and residents worry that China's statistics, which show no new COVID deaths reported for the six days through Sunday, do not reflect the actual number of fatalities, and that the country's fragile health system is being overwhelmed.
After the initial shock of the policy U-turn, and a few weeks in which people in Beijing and Shanghai stayed indoors, either dealing with the disease or trying to avoid it, there are signs that life is on track to returning closer to normal.
Subway trains in Beijing and Shanghai were packed, while some major traffic arteries in the two cities were jammed with slow-moving cars on Monday as residents commuted to work.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-shanghai-residents-back-work-china-eases-into-living-with-covid-2022-12-26/
BEIJING/SHANGHAI, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Mask-wearing Beijing and Shanghai commuters crowded subway trains on Monday, with China's two biggest cities edging closer to living with COVID-19, as millions have been infected with the largely unchecked virus across the country.
After three years of ruthless anti-coronavirus curbs, President Xi Jinping scrapped the country's zero-COVID policy of lockdowns and relentless testing this month in the face of protests and a widening outbreak.
Health experts and residents worry that China's statistics, which show no new COVID deaths reported for the six days through Sunday, do not reflect the actual number of fatalities, and that the country's fragile health system is being overwhelmed.
After the initial shock of the policy U-turn, and a few weeks in which people in Beijing and Shanghai stayed indoors, either dealing with the disease or trying to avoid it, there are signs that life is on track to returning closer to normal.
Subway trains in Beijing and Shanghai were packed, while some major traffic arteries in the two cities were jammed with slow-moving cars on Monday as residents commuted to work.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-shanghai-residents-back-work-china-eases-into-living-with-covid-2022-12-26/
ørnen
24.12.2022 kl 10:06
10235
Iron ore futures edged down on Friday, trapped in a tight range, as top metals consumer China grappled with widening COVID-19 outbreaks that could derail the recovery of the world’s second-largest economy and top steel producer.
A Shanghai hospital has told its staff to prepare for a “tragic battle” with COVID-19 as it expects half of the city’s 25 million people to get infected by the end of the year.
“The reality is that in the whole country, infections have entered the peak season. Production and other activities have stagnated,” Sinosteel Futures analysts said in a note.
A Shanghai hospital has told its staff to prepare for a “tragic battle” with COVID-19 as it expects half of the city’s 25 million people to get infected by the end of the year.
“The reality is that in the whole country, infections have entered the peak season. Production and other activities have stagnated,” Sinosteel Futures analysts said in a note.
nman
24.12.2022 kl 07:22
10328
Kina forventes å importere mer soyabønner neste år.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/chinas-soybean-imports-to-recover-on-improved-margins-restocking-needs/
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/chinas-soybean-imports-to-recover-on-improved-margins-restocking-needs/
Realistoptimist
23.12.2022 kl 16:06
10377
WQ økte shorten med drøye 307K i går. På tide å ta børsferie noen dager. God jul til alle her inne på tråden!
nman
23.12.2022 kl 14:26
10462
Som KJEPET rapporterte om her for et par dager siden:
https://splash247.com/shipping-hit-by-soaring-cases-of-covid-in-china/
https://splash247.com/shipping-hit-by-soaring-cases-of-covid-in-china/
nman
23.12.2022 kl 06:44
6507
Dalian iron ore edged higher on Thursday, buoyed by hopes of improved steel demand in China in 2023, as Beijing seeks to ensure economic growth, even as local COVID outbreaks are curbing industrial activity and consumer demand.
Top global steel producer China will implement policy measures to support the economy and aim for an improvement in growth in early 2023, state media on Wednesday quoted the cabinet as saying.
Last week, Chinese leaders pledged to focus on stabilising the economy in 2023 and step up policy adjustments.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dalian-iron-ore-edges-higher-as-china-stimulus-offers-relief/
God Jul ja :-)
Top global steel producer China will implement policy measures to support the economy and aim for an improvement in growth in early 2023, state media on Wednesday quoted the cabinet as saying.
Last week, Chinese leaders pledged to focus on stabilising the economy in 2023 and step up policy adjustments.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dalian-iron-ore-edges-higher-as-china-stimulus-offers-relief/
God Jul ja :-)
Redigert 23.12.2022 kl 06:45
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KJEPET
22.12.2022 kl 18:09
6793
Aldri kjedelige dager i shipping. Det svinger voldsomt om dagen. Ser mange regner med full fart i China utover i 2023. Det er også min teori, men ser ikke så mange nevner India. De har allerede kommet seg godt etter COVID. Tror de blir en joker i 2023.
https://twitter.com/karun_f7/status/1605915359416311808
China er også i gang med å få opp farten.
https://twitter.com/karun_f7/status/1605911784439054336
Så er det på tide å ønske alle sammen som følger drybulk og gogl spesielt en riktig god og fredfull jul :-)
https://twitter.com/karun_f7/status/1605915359416311808
China er også i gang med å få opp farten.
https://twitter.com/karun_f7/status/1605911784439054336
Så er det på tide å ønske alle sammen som følger drybulk og gogl spesielt en riktig god og fredfull jul :-)
Redigert 22.12.2022 kl 18:23
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nman
22.12.2022 kl 16:54
6868
nman
22.12.2022 kl 10:11
7366
Golden Goat
22.12.2022 kl 10:10
7253
nman
22.12.2022 kl 06:39
7484
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as coal and steel-making ingredient iron ore, increased $3,580 to $23,197.
Capesize Atlantic activity set the positive tone with an injection of fresh cargoes out from Brazil, West Africa, and North Atlantic that faced a shortage of prompt tonnage and led to significant week-on-week rises, shipbroker Intermodal said in its weekly note.
Chinese iron ore and steel futures rose on Wednesday, rebounding after two days of losses, with news that China Evergrande Group has resumed work on some property projects bringing relief to a market worried about demand prospects in China.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-climbs-as-capesizes-reach-over-5-month-high/
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ferrous-futures-rise-as-china-property-optimism-lifts-mood/
Capesize Atlantic activity set the positive tone with an injection of fresh cargoes out from Brazil, West Africa, and North Atlantic that faced a shortage of prompt tonnage and led to significant week-on-week rises, shipbroker Intermodal said in its weekly note.
Chinese iron ore and steel futures rose on Wednesday, rebounding after two days of losses, with news that China Evergrande Group has resumed work on some property projects bringing relief to a market worried about demand prospects in China.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-climbs-as-capesizes-reach-over-5-month-high/
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ferrous-futures-rise-as-china-property-optimism-lifts-mood/
nman
22.12.2022 kl 06:32
7404
Kullimporten øker i Kina.
Lower combined usage and imports by the world's top coal producer, consumer and importer helped offset the increase in coal demand seen in Europe and elsewhere this year, and potentially curbed the climb in overall coal emissions in 2022.
But recent measures aimed at lifting movement restrictions and reviving economic activity in China are already resulting in increased coal import activity at key usage hubs, which stand to impact global coal flows, prices and emissions in 2023.
…
Guangdong's Guangzhou port, which was China's main coal import entry point in 2021, is nearly equidistant from the country's largest coal pits in Inner Mongolia as it is from Indonesia, the world's top thermal coal exporter.
As a result, many Southern China coal plants are almost overwhelmingly reliant on imported coal.
And all major coal ports in that region are now starting to show signs of a recovery in coal import volumes compared with mid-2022, when lockdowns were common throughout the country.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/key-coal-import-hubs-china-perk-up-economy-reboots-maguire-2022-12-21/
Lower combined usage and imports by the world's top coal producer, consumer and importer helped offset the increase in coal demand seen in Europe and elsewhere this year, and potentially curbed the climb in overall coal emissions in 2022.
But recent measures aimed at lifting movement restrictions and reviving economic activity in China are already resulting in increased coal import activity at key usage hubs, which stand to impact global coal flows, prices and emissions in 2023.
…
Guangdong's Guangzhou port, which was China's main coal import entry point in 2021, is nearly equidistant from the country's largest coal pits in Inner Mongolia as it is from Indonesia, the world's top thermal coal exporter.
As a result, many Southern China coal plants are almost overwhelmingly reliant on imported coal.
And all major coal ports in that region are now starting to show signs of a recovery in coal import volumes compared with mid-2022, when lockdowns were common throughout the country.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/key-coal-import-hubs-china-perk-up-economy-reboots-maguire-2022-12-21/
Hardingen
21.12.2022 kl 21:02
7755
The latest payment issues have led to ships being unable to discharge cargoes, with at least 40 bulk carrier ships stuck outside the major Iranian ports of Bandar Imam Khomeini and Bandar Abbas, ship tracking data on Refinitiv showed.
https://gcaptain.com/dozens-of-ships-stuck-off-iran-as-payment-snags-bite-sources/
Hardingen
21.12.2022 kl 17:36
7943
E.Finley-Richardson med Clarksons Securities as info.
Masse godsaker her.
Husk å klikke på "Show this thread" om nødvendig.
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1605563873196527616?s=20&t=qi-E07NRV2VLaVMeM2KU0g
Masse godsaker her.
Husk å klikke på "Show this thread" om nødvendig.
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1605563873196527616?s=20&t=qi-E07NRV2VLaVMeM2KU0g
Redigert 21.12.2022 kl 18:03
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KJEPET
21.12.2022 kl 15:10
8175
Realistoptimist
21.12.2022 kl 15:08
8086
Usikker selv, siden FFA har snudd ned i løpet av dagen. Så har tatt gevinst, og er fornøyd med penger på konto akkurat nå..
Asd
21.12.2022 kl 14:26
7882
Realistoptimist skrev Kursstigning på rundt 10% på halvannet døgn var større julegave enn forventet ;-)
Fornøyd med det, men lurer på hvor bestandig oppgang er? Leser andre steder at det er mye sykdom rundt Corona i Kina + at det forventes en god del casualties framover.
Asd
21.12.2022 kl 14:25
7812
Realistoptimist skrev Kursstigning på rundt 10% på halvannet døgn var større julegave enn forventet ;-)
Fornøyd med det, men lurer på hvor bestandig oppgang er? Leser andre steder at det er mye sykdom rundt Corona i Kina + at det forventes en god del casualties framover.
Realistoptimist
21.12.2022 kl 14:03
7852
Kursstigning på rundt 10% på halvannet døgn var større julegave enn forventet ;-)
Golden Goat
21.12.2022 kl 12:14
8060
Capesize ratene kraftig opp, atter en gang: https://twitter.com/realGoldenGoat/status/1605521002577899521?s=20&t=1VofMvuJ-VZOrPydep1rew
Golden Goat
21.12.2022 kl 12:05
8058
BULK: CLARKSONS PLATOU TAR OPP DEKNING PÅ BELSHIPS, HØYNER KURSMÅL PÅ GOGL OG 2020
Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Clarksons Platou Securities mener at den forventede tilbakevendingen til vekst i Kina byr på muligheter for investorer innen tørrbulksektoren. Meglerhuset oppdaterer sine fraktrateestimater, tar opp dekning på Belships med en kjøpsanbefaling, og oppjusterer sine kursmål på Golden Ocean og 2020 Bulkers.
Det fremgår av en sektoroppdatering onsdag.
"En kombinasjon av lave selskapsverdsettelser og sterke balanser antyder at avtagende flåtevekst vil støtte en oppgang i tørrbulkaksjer det kommende året. Etter vårt syn gir dette en god mulighet for investorer til å dra nytte av det forbedrede risiko/avkastnings-forholdet og potensielt høste sterk avkastning", skriver meglerhuset.
Tørrbulkmarkedet opplevde en nedgang i 2022 på grunn av en nedgang i kinesisk import av viktige råvarer og forsvinningen av overbelastning i havnene, påpekes det..
"Til tross for en sannsynlig resesjon i resten av verden, er Kina ansvarlig for omtrent 50 prosent av tørrbulk-tonnmilene, så hvis landet henter seg inn igjen etter covid-19-pandemien i 2023, kan det støtte tørrbulkmarkedet. Vi forventer at ratene starter svakt i årets første kvartal, men vil forbedre seg utover året", heter det i oppdateringen.
Fra 2023 vil regulatoriske krav for å redusere karbonutslipp nødvendiggjøre langsommere steaming og økt skipsskraping. På etterspørselssiden vil kull- og kornhandel være støttende, til tross for at de fundamentale forholdene for jernmalm og stål vil være svake frem til Kina åpner igjen, mener meglerhuset.
Meglerhuset venter at capesize-spotrater vil starte året på 8.000 dollar pr dag, men avslutte året på rundt 25.000 dollar pr dag.
Meglerhuset tar opp dekning på Belships med en kjøpsanbefaling og kursmål på 22 kroner. Meglerhuset skriver at selskapet har den ideelle kombinasjonen av fastkontraktsdekning og oppsidepotensial.
Meglerhuset gjentar sine kjøpsanbefalinger på Golden Ocean, 2020 Bulkers, og Himalaya Shipping. Kursmålet på Golden Ocean oppjusteres fra 125 kroner til 130 kroner. Kursmålet på 2020 Bulkers oppjusteres fra 120 kroner til 150 kroner, mens kursmålet på Himalaya Shipping holdes uendret på 80 kroner.
Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Clarksons Platou Securities mener at den forventede tilbakevendingen til vekst i Kina byr på muligheter for investorer innen tørrbulksektoren. Meglerhuset oppdaterer sine fraktrateestimater, tar opp dekning på Belships med en kjøpsanbefaling, og oppjusterer sine kursmål på Golden Ocean og 2020 Bulkers.
Det fremgår av en sektoroppdatering onsdag.
"En kombinasjon av lave selskapsverdsettelser og sterke balanser antyder at avtagende flåtevekst vil støtte en oppgang i tørrbulkaksjer det kommende året. Etter vårt syn gir dette en god mulighet for investorer til å dra nytte av det forbedrede risiko/avkastnings-forholdet og potensielt høste sterk avkastning", skriver meglerhuset.
Tørrbulkmarkedet opplevde en nedgang i 2022 på grunn av en nedgang i kinesisk import av viktige råvarer og forsvinningen av overbelastning i havnene, påpekes det..
"Til tross for en sannsynlig resesjon i resten av verden, er Kina ansvarlig for omtrent 50 prosent av tørrbulk-tonnmilene, så hvis landet henter seg inn igjen etter covid-19-pandemien i 2023, kan det støtte tørrbulkmarkedet. Vi forventer at ratene starter svakt i årets første kvartal, men vil forbedre seg utover året", heter det i oppdateringen.
Fra 2023 vil regulatoriske krav for å redusere karbonutslipp nødvendiggjøre langsommere steaming og økt skipsskraping. På etterspørselssiden vil kull- og kornhandel være støttende, til tross for at de fundamentale forholdene for jernmalm og stål vil være svake frem til Kina åpner igjen, mener meglerhuset.
Meglerhuset venter at capesize-spotrater vil starte året på 8.000 dollar pr dag, men avslutte året på rundt 25.000 dollar pr dag.
Meglerhuset tar opp dekning på Belships med en kjøpsanbefaling og kursmål på 22 kroner. Meglerhuset skriver at selskapet har den ideelle kombinasjonen av fastkontraktsdekning og oppsidepotensial.
Meglerhuset gjentar sine kjøpsanbefalinger på Golden Ocean, 2020 Bulkers, og Himalaya Shipping. Kursmålet på Golden Ocean oppjusteres fra 125 kroner til 130 kroner. Kursmålet på 2020 Bulkers oppjusteres fra 120 kroner til 150 kroner, mens kursmålet på Himalaya Shipping holdes uendret på 80 kroner.
nman
21.12.2022 kl 10:33
8191
Golden Goat
21.12.2022 kl 10:00
8280
J (aka #2) er en kredibel (og reputabel) analytiker i shipping-sfæren. Meget bra presentasjon, takk for link Hardingen. Her er det bare å ta notater.
17:20 - Direkte avslørende for hvor bullish han er på tørrbulk.
19:30 - Flåte og supply av nybygg for bulkere.
21:05 - Presentasjon kun vedr. tørrbulksegmentet starter.
17:20 - Direkte avslørende for hvor bullish han er på tørrbulk.
19:30 - Flåte og supply av nybygg for bulkere.
21:05 - Presentasjon kun vedr. tørrbulksegmentet starter.
nman
21.12.2022 kl 09:00
8404
BlackRock har økt igjen.
file:///C:/Users/Oyvind/Downloads/GOLDEN%20OCEAN%20GROUP%20LTD%202022-12-19_NOR-FSA.pdf
file:///C:/Users/Oyvind/Downloads/GOLDEN%20OCEAN%20GROUP%20LTD%202022-12-19_NOR-FSA.pdf
KJEPET
20.12.2022 kl 23:46
8617
Hardingen
20.12.2022 kl 18:39
8898
Supply Chain and Shipping Stocks for 2023 with J Mintzmyer.
Breaks down 3 Shipping sectors. ( Dry bulk, Tanker og Container )
https://t.co/8mVicUNrlk
Breaks down 3 Shipping sectors. ( Dry bulk, Tanker og Container )
https://t.co/8mVicUNrlk
Redigert 20.12.2022 kl 18:39
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Golden Goat
20.12.2022 kl 13:34
9164
Vil EU måtte se seg nødt til å børste støvet av samtlige varmekraftverk på kontinentet inn mot en kald vinter?
Dette er intet mindre enn et apokalyptisk skue.
https://twitter.com/runews/status/1605166137905500161?s=20&t=TCtOucWbMtsl0o7GrXdGdA
Dette er intet mindre enn et apokalyptisk skue.
https://twitter.com/runews/status/1605166137905500161?s=20&t=TCtOucWbMtsl0o7GrXdGdA
Redigert 20.12.2022 kl 13:35
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Golden Goat
20.12.2022 kl 13:14
9176
Veldig bra, velkommen inn. Ser på twitter at det er flere med deg som tar grep og laster på med GOGL-aksjer. Prisingen gitt moderate ubytter fremover er formidabel. Vi har 6-9 måneder til med høy inflasjon som kommer til å bakes inn i asset values. Disse to faktorene alene står for omtrent 20% avkastning, så har vi i tillegg (vi som er optimistiske for sesongen 2023) forhåpninger om at året som ligger forran oss vil innbringe ytterligere oppside i aksjen.
Golden Goat
20.12.2022 kl 13:02
9087
Tradisjon tro har desember veldig inneffisient prising på shippingaksjer. Gode muligheter, for dem med tilgjengelig likviditet, å plukke billige gogl-lodd herfra og inn i romjulen.
Papirmarkedet går som en kule i dag:
Cape Price Change
Dec 15750 +1275
Jan 11625 +2375
Q1 9575 +1375
Q2 12025 +625
Cal23 13575 +717
Papirmarkedet går som en kule i dag:
Cape Price Change
Dec 15750 +1275
Jan 11625 +2375
Q1 9575 +1375
Q2 12025 +625
Cal23 13575 +717
KJEPET
20.12.2022 kl 12:53
9043
#1 koser seg nå med billige aksjer til nervøse aksjonærer som mest sannsynlig bare leser overskriftene på E24 :-)
https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl/status/1605166878955081729
https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl/status/1605166878955081729
nman
20.12.2022 kl 12:22
9090
Blir spennende å se om en flytting fra Nasdaq til NYSE vil påvirke prisingen av Eagle.
https://splash247.com/eagle-bulk-shipping-to-move-listing-to-nyse-from-nasdaq/
https://splash247.com/eagle-bulk-shipping-to-move-listing-to-nyse-from-nasdaq/
The Godfather
20.12.2022 kl 12:21
9064
Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Baltic Capesize-indeksen er opp 8,23 prosent til 19.617 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange.
Kenevil
20.12.2022 kl 10:57
9219
nybestillinger betyr og en sterk tro på fremtiden...
Kan bli trangt i døra over nyttår om ratene går videre opp :)
Kan bli trangt i døra over nyttår om ratene går videre opp :)
andh
20.12.2022 kl 10:54
9076
Bra med scrapping, verre med 4 nybestillinger – leveranse først I 2025 da.
BULKER 2 210,000 dwt COSCO Yangzhou, China N/A Zhejiang Xiehai Group 2025 EEDI Phase 3
BULKER 2 82,500 dwt COSCO Yangzhou, China N/A Zhejiang Xiehai Group 2025 EEDI Phase 3
BULKER 2 210,000 dwt COSCO Yangzhou, China N/A Zhejiang Xiehai Group 2025 EEDI Phase 3
BULKER 2 82,500 dwt COSCO Yangzhou, China N/A Zhejiang Xiehai Group 2025 EEDI Phase 3