https://www.finansavisen.no/nyheter/industri/2022/12/16/7969978/clarksons-platou-spar-solid-oppgang-for-rana-gruber

Jernmalm +3,5%

Mount Gibson Iron opp 6% på Sydney-børsen i dag.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/mgx.ax/

Jernmalmaksjer kraftig opp i Australia etter at det ble rapportert at Kina er i ferd med å avslutte det uoffisielle forbudet mot australsk kulleksport.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/CIA-AU


https://www.finansavisen.no/ravarer/2023/01/04/7973906/den-australske-dollaren-stiger-pa-kull-rykter?internal_source=sistenytt

Veldig bra produksjonstall. Nesten på nivå med forrige kvartal som var historisk beste.

Rana Gruber ASA – Production update Q4-22

Rana Gruber has today published the production update for the fourth quarter of 2022.
The concentrate production of the fourth quarter was 460 000 metric tons, up from 435 000 metric tons last year. This is in line with the strong production last quarter and a result of continuous improvement in the entire value chain.

Please see attachments for selected production and sales metrics for the quarter.

About Rana Gruber
Rana Gruber is a Norwegian iron ore producer established in 1964, with operations based on more than 200 years of mining experience. The company's products are based on natural mineral resources, which are processed and exported to customers worldwide. Key customers include steel producers and participants in the chemical industry. The company has about 300 employees and a production capacity of 1.8 million metric tons of iron ore concentrates.

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/579639

Clarksons er ute med en update

■ Rana Gruber impresses with strong 4Q22 production - Rana Gruber (RANA, Buy) released production and sales numbers for 4Q22 in an update this
morning. Production of 460kt was in line with the record quarter of 3Q22 (469kt), and above our 435kt assumption. We expect total cost to be in line with the
previous quarter, and with the high production, unit costs should be similar to 3Q22 as well (~$43/t FOB). FY22 estimates from our December update should
still be relevant with sales of 399kt in line with our 395kt assumption, but we expect to make some adjustment to sales volumes for 2023 to account for the
inventory build last quarter. We deem today's release to be positive for the stock as it provides comfort on the consistency of higher output volumes following
optimization of the mine's refinement circuits.

If current iron ore prices persist, we believe Rana could have a dividend yield of about 22% in 2023

Clarksons update

Iron ore gains as China is planning to relax borrowing restrictions of property developers

The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.9% to $124.66/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 1.9% to $117.30/t at the time of writing.

Reuters reports that China is planning to ease restrictions on borrowing for property developers, including allowing higher leverage. The news is fueling metal markets and sent the Australian ASX 300 Metals & Mining index up 3.3% this morning, with iron ore majors BHP, Rio Tinto and FMG gaining between 2.4% and 3.7%.

Additionally, China's central bank announced yesterday that it has established a dynamic adjustment mechanism on mortgage rates for first-time buyers. In cities where the selling prices of new homes fall month-on-month and year-on-year for three consecutive months, the floor on mortgage rates can be lowered for people buying their first home.

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore gains with China past the first COVID-19 peak

-The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.2% to $123.83/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 2.6% to $120.10/t at the time of writing.

According to Reuters, a compilation of reports from local governments and health experts across the country suggest that the first COVID-19 wave (post reopening) is past its peak in multiple regions. Infections are now reportedly declining in Beijing and some provinces estimate that 90% of its population have now been infected. We expect there to be another peak in new infections later in 1Q23, as the virus is likely to spread from the large cities to more rural and so far less affected areas with the expected uptick in mobility during the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday starting 21 January.

Clarksons ga ett kursmål på Rana på 59 kroner da prisen på jernmalm med 62% innhold gikk fra 80 til 110 dollar. Nå vaker samme malmkvalitet på ca 120 dollar og kan gå høyere ettersom to større jernmalmprodusenter har rapportert at produksjonen blir omtrent likt som 2022. Eller tilnærmet flatt. Kommer det nye oppjusteringer? Champion Iron ore har nærmest doblet kursen siden oktober. De har jo også planer om produksjonsøkning og har malmkvalitet med 65% innhold.

Det er ventet lavere output på jernmalmsiden de neste årene fra noen av verdens ledende gruver

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore continue to gain as supply concerns further boosts sentiment

-The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.6% to $123.83/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 1.7% to $122.00/t at the time of writing, hitting a six-month-high.

Lower shipping volumes, especially from Brazil during the current rainy season, are driving prices higher, combined with expectations of increasing demand from a reopening China.

The Australian iron ore majors gained another 1.0-2.4% this morning, with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index trading up 1.8%.

Iron ore vaults to six-month high as supply risk adds to price optimism;

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40219576/iron-ore-vaults-to-six-month-high-as-supply-risk-adds-to-price-optimism

Virker som det er vanskelig å holde jernmalmprisen nede. Kinesiske myndigheter ønsker prisregulering. Igår spratt prisen på 65% opp med 1,5% til litt i overkant av 135 US dollar.

Veldig lave lagre i Kina

Berenberg høyner Rio Tinto til kjøp (selg), kursmål 67 pund (40) - BN

62% opp 1,36% idag.

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore rally continues

- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.4% to $126.76/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is inching up 0.1% to $122.15/t at the time of writing.

Promising demand prospects later in the year from a reopening of China, combined with supply concerns over low shipment volumes from Brazil during the current rainy season, are the main stories in iron ore.

Et stort Kina-løft for Rana Gruber er ting vi bør forberede oss på, forklarer Clarksons Platou-analytiker Bendik Folden Nyttingnes som er gjest i dagens børsmorgen sending.

Han har kjøpsanbefaling på gruveaksjen. Rana Gruber vil ifølge analytikeren løftes for alvor «når den store bjørnen i Asia, Kina, våkner opp og blir sulten på enda mer jernmalm.»

https://www.finansavisen.no/finans/2023/01/13/7976723/borsmorgen-gruvefunn-salmar-pa-selger-n-og-sas-milliard-i-boks

Clarksons update

■ Chinese iron ore hits 17-month high

-The iron ore rally continued this morning as the most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 3.4% to $131.16/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 2.1% to $124.70/t at the time of writing.

An expected uptick in demand later in the year following the reopening of China combined with expectations of stimulus targeting infrastructure projects and the country's troubled real estate sector is fueling the market. In addition, supply concerns over low shipment volumes from Brazil during the current rainy season and cyclone risks in Australia, are also providing support to prices

Kom nylig statistikk fra Kina som viste at importen av jernmalm sank med 8% fra november til desember. Samtidig som prisene steg. Blir litt spesielt. Kan bety at det kan oppstå en mangelsituasjon når kineserne før eller senere må fylle på lagrene.

Tilbudssiden i jernmalmmarkedet ser stram ut. Produksjonsguidingen til de fire største produsentene (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP og Fortescue) tilsier 0-1% tilbudsvekst i år.

Metaller blir bra fremover. Det såkalte "grønne skiftet" fordrer enorme mengder gruver. Jernmalm er forsåvidt ikke det beste, men må jo til for vindmøller f.eks.

Forresten noen som har gode tips på kobber-selskaper?

HellB. Sjekk Aurubis i Tyskland/Frankfurtbørsen. Driver mye med gjenvinning.

Skal bli spennende å se hvordan det nye innkjøpskontoret skal holde jernmalmprisene nede. Igår spratt FEB kontrakten for 65% litt underkant av 140 dollar tonnet i Singapore. 62% ligger cirka ti dollar lavere, med andre ord vi kan forvente at den også nærmer seg 130 dollar tonnet. Det er 20 dollar høyere enn ved siste Clarkson TP justering.

Takk for tipset, skal sjekke dem ut når jeg får litt tid til overs :)

RIO TINTO: FASTHOLDER GUIDING FOR JERNMALMSKIPNINGER I 2023

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Rio Tinto ser fortsatt totale skipninger på 320-335 millioner tonn Pilbara-jernmalm i 2023, ifølge en produksjonsoppdatering tirsdag.

Reuters;

Rio looks set to retain its crown as the world's biggest iron ore producer as quarterly iron ore shipments came in slightly ahead of expectations, near the bottom of the year's guidance.

"Results are broadly in line," said Glyn Lawcock of Barrenjoey in Sydney. "It's good to see they made their iron ore guidance. Rio has also noted that system inventories are healthy. ... That puts them on track for a good start to 2023."


https://www.riotinto.com/-/media/Content/Documents/Invest/Financial-news-and-performance/Production/rt-fourth-quarter-operations-review-2022-pdf.pdf?rev=950c7bb1f1834511b8a9ce539c3e51be

Clarksons update


■ Iron Ore Trades Mixed - Chinese Steel Production Gains In December:

The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange slipped 1.3% to $123.23/ t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 1.1% to $120.65/t at the time of writing.

Chinese steel production increased in December, adding 4.5% from November to 77.9Mt last month on slightly better steel mill margins. FY22 output of 1.01 billion tonnes is down 2.1% from 2021, marking the second year of decline.

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore gains as third Chinese warning against price speculation is deemed toothless by markets

- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 0.9% to $124.46/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 1.0% to $121.75/t at the time of writing.

Today, China's state planner issued its third warning against "excessive speculation" this month following a meeting with market participants on Tuesday, saying that it will increase supervision of the country's spot and futures markets.

According to Reuters, the outcome of the meeting was seen as lacking teeth, with some traders reportedly using the event as a "buy the dip" opportunity.

BHP: FASTHOLDER PRODUKSJONSGUIDING FOR REGNSKAPSÅRET 2023

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): BHP venter fortsatt en jernmalmproduksjon for regnskapsåret 2023 på 100 prosent-basis på 278-290 millioner tonn (WAIO).

Det fremkommer av en oppdatering fra selskapet.

Verdens største gruveselskap venter at Kina vil drive etterspørselen etter råvarer i 2023 når landet åpner, skriver Bloomberg.

Clarksons update

BHP with strong production numbers. Sees China as stabilizing force in 2023

• BHP released its 1H23 (calendar year 2H22) operational review yesterday showcasing a strong half in terms and operations and maintaining output guidance in all minerals. Production numbers for the December quarter 2022 showed a 3% increase in iron ore output from the previous quarter to 66.9Mt, making 1H23 a record half for the company. The company is thus well in line to meet its FY23 guidance of 249-260Mt. Unit costs for 1H23 are expected to slip above the upper end of FY23 guidance of $18-19/t for the Western Australia Iron Ore system.

Looking at the market, BHP commented that it expects China to be a stabilizing source of commodity demand in 2023, while the OECD nations are experiencing economic headwinds.

The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.6% to $125.81/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 1.8% to $123.85/t at the time of writing.

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore gains ahead of holiday close

-The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.8% to $127.57/t this morning, while the mosttraded February contract in Singapore is up 2.0% to $126.20/t at the time of writing.

The Dalian exchange in China will be closed from 21-27 January for the Lunar New Year holidays.

Takk for interessante oppdateringer :)

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore inch up in Singapore. Chinese markets closed for holiday

- The most-traded March contract in Singapore is up 0.6% to $126.05/t at the time of writing, while the Dalian exchange in China is closed for the Lunar New Year holidays.

According to Refinitiv, Chinese iron ore imports are on track to reach a potential 116.8Mt in January, a significant jump from 90.9Mt in December, and above the record figure of 112.7Mt seen in July 2020.

DNB Markets høyner kursmål til 65 kr (50)

De skriver;

En kombinasjon av begrenset tilbudsvekst og kinesiske pandemilettelser løftet jernmalmprisene med rundt 20% gjennom Q4. Mens prisen på USD 75 pr tonn ved inngangen av kvartalet med våre estimater ville gi kontantstrøm break-even for Rana Gruber hadde prisen ved utgangen av kvartalet steget til opp mot USD 120 pr tonn. Denne utviklingen løfter ikke bare Q4-estimatene, men har samtidig også bidratt til å løfte markedets futurespriser med rundt 50% for 2023-2024. Den høye operasjonelle giringen i selskapet gjør at vi på basis av denne prisutviklingen har tatt opp estimert EPS for Rana Gruber med NOK 7.5-8.2 pr aksje for inneværende og neste år. Kursen stengte i går på NOK 55.10 pr aksje og vi gjentar en kjøpsanbefaling med et oppjustert kursmål fra NOK 50 til NOK 65 pr aksje.

Spår 260 prosent oppside og 100 mill. i utbytte!

https://www.finansavisen.no/ravarer/2023/01/26/7980346/spar-260-prosent-oppside-og-100-mill.-i-utbytte-en-enten-eller-aksje?internal_source=sistenytt

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore inch up in Singapore. Hang Seng up 2.4% in first day of trading following Chinese New Year

- The most-traded March contract in Singapore is inching up 0.1% to $125.00/t at the time of writing while the Dalian Exchange in China remains closed.

Reuters reports that Asian shares rose to a new 7-month high today, as the Hang Seng index played catch-up with other markets gains. At the time of writing the Hong Kong is up 2.4%.

Tviler, i Q4 begynte jernprisen på ca 97USD/mt var nede i 80 i november men sluttet i 97. I desember har den vert rundt 110USD/mt.
Den steg tidlig i '23 til 120USD/mt.

En SB1M analyse regnet seg frem til at utbyttet ved 120$/mt vil gi ca 9kr aksjen i utbytte og EPS på 12kr.
En jernpris på 90$/mt gir utbytte på 4kr og eps på 6kr.

Så ved dagens jernpriser vil det være ca 9/4 = 2.25kr per kvartal
Med et snittpris på 90 i Q4 regner jeg med det ikke er mye over 1kr.

Regner med rundt krona jeg også for 4. kvartal 2022. (har vært inne i denne aksjen ei stund så ville verte overaska om det ble noe mer for forrige kvartal erfaringmessig)

Clarksons update

■ FMG with record shipments in 1H23

- Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) released its 2Q23 (calendar year 4Q22) production report yesterday, presenting a record December quarter and 1H23. Quarterly shipments of 49.4Mt brought the 1H23 number up to 96.9Mt, meaning that the company is well on track to reach its unchanged FY23 guidance of 187-192Mt. The company expects first production from its 22Mtpa high-grade Iron Bridge project at the end of the March quarter. Capital expenditure on the project is expected to trend towards the top end of the $3.6-3.8bn guidance.

The most-traded March contract in Singapore is inching up 0.3% to $125.95/t at the time of writing while the Dalian Exchange in China remains closed.

Kommer snart en oppjustering til 80 - 85 kroner. Stål på rull er i Contango. Kan bety økt etterspørsel etter både stål og tilhørende innsats/råvarer.

Oppdatering fra SB1 Markets

RANA: Enters into iron ore swap contracts

Rana Gruber just announced it has entered into swap contracts over the period Q2 23 – Q1 24 for 390 kt of iron ore, equivalent to ~23% of the SB1Me production over the same period. The swap contracts were done at an average price of USD ~121.5/t which is in line with the forward curve over the same period. As we use the forward curve until YE23 in our model, only the coverage for Q1 24 will affect our estimates (We assume a long-term 62% Fe price of USD 85/t from 2024). We think it makes sense to lock in some production at current levels as iron ore prices have been very strong and it de-risks the company's dividend capacity. With current swap coverage for 2023 we estimate Rana Gruber will be in a dividend position as long as iron ore prices average > USD 55/t.

The company now has iron ore swap contracts in place for a total of 630 kt over the period Q1 23 – Q1 24 at an average price of USD ~128.1/t. The contracts cover some 30% of the SB1Me production over the same period.

Iron ore prices remain firm on the expectation of rebounding Chinese demand and limited supply growth from majors. The 1st position is currently trading at USD 124/t and the average for 2023 at USD 123.5/t. This compares with Rana's all-in cash cost at USD 70-75/t.

The forward curve now implies a ~20% dividend yield for Rana Gruber in 2023. The company pays out 70% of adj. EPS.

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore rally continues as Chinese markets resume trading following Lunar New Year holiday

- The most-traded March contract in Singapore is trading up 1.5% to $128.20/t at the time of writing while the most-traded May contract Dalian Exchange is up 2.0% to $129.39/t, as trading has resumed following the Lunar New Year holiday.

The Chinese central bank said on Sunday that it would roll over lending tools targeting three sectors, including transport and logistics.

In Australia, Rio Tinto apologized for losing a tiny radioactive capsule from a truck earlier this month, which has sparked a radiation alert across parts of Western Australia. Authorities are now searching the truck's 1,400km journey from Newman to Perth in order to find the missing capsule.

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore heading for monthly gain

- The most-traded May contract Dalian Exchange slipped 1.3% to $128.20/t this morning, while the most-traded March contract in Singapore is down 0.5% to $127.45/t at the time of writing.

The Dalian Quote is on track for a 2% monthly growth, while iron ore in Singapore is up 11% this month having played catch-up with the Chinese market. The gains have been driven by demand prospects from a reopening China.

VALE: SER FORTSATT JERNMALMPRODUKSJON PÅ 310-320M TONN I 2023

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Vale venter fortsatt jernmalmproduksjon på 310-320 millioner tonn i 2023, sammenlignet med en produksjon på om lag 310 millioner tonn i 2022.

Det fremgår av en selskapsoppdatering tirsdag.

Produksjonen av pellets ventes til 36-40 millioner tonn, opp fra rundt 33 millioner tonn i 2022. Nikkelproduksjonen i 2023 ventes fortsatt til 160.000-175.000 tonn, mot rundt 180.000 tonn i 2022, mens kobberproduksjonen ventes til 335.000-370.000 tonn i 2023, fra rundt 260.000 tonn i 2022.

utbytte blei på 3,00 kroner pr.aksje for 4.kvartal 2022 må siest å vere langt over forventa.

EBITDA dårligere enn ventet

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Rana Gruber fikk en ebitda på 168 millioner kroner i fjerde kvartal 2022, sammenlignet med 98 millioner samme periode året før.

Det fremgår av selskapets kvartalsrapport onsdag.

Justert nettoresultat ble 158,1 millioner kroner i kvartalet (102,5), av en omsetning på 383 millioner kroner (276).

Clarksons

■ RANA | Rana Gruber beats expectations with NOK 3.0/sh dividend

- Rana Gruber (RANA, Buy) released 4Q22 results this morning in a report slightly above expectations. Sales of NOK 383m was slightly lower than our expected NOK 394m, while cash costs surprised positively, with NOK448/t being below our NOK 460/t assumption.

The company thus continues to deliver higher volumes at similar total costs, resulting in more competitive unit costs. The net profit adjusted for hedges of NOK 158m was above our NOK 143m estimate resulting in a dividend of NOK 3.0/sh, above our NOK 2.7/sh estimate. Ex date is 17. February.

Other estimates of the P&L are off mainly due to the introduction of accounted electric power derivatives adding a NOK 189m financial gain in the 4Q results.

The change in accounting regime on electricity hedges also led to a negative NOK48m cost adjustment for electricity hedges compared to the accounting in previous quarters, which largely explains the difference between reported EBITDA of NOK 168m versus our NOK 210m estimate. The derivatives have previously been treated under the own use exemption, but as the company entered larger hedges than usual and due the difference between the system price and hedged price of electricity, the company will have to present gains/losses on electric power deals going forward. In addition to the quarterly results the company announced that it has signed a frame agreement for a fleet of 19 battery-electric vehicles from Sandvik for a total value of SEK 370m (NOK 362m). The agreement follows a letter of intent from November 2022 and Rana has included the upgrade to an electric fleet in its previous Capex estimates. Delivery of the first four machines (one has been delivered so far, with the rest to follow in 2H23) is booked at a total value of NOK 58 million. Enova has granted funding of NOK 8.7 million for these four machines in total and from our questions regarding what we should expect in future Enova grants, we understand that a similar rate (~15%) is a fair assumption. We had already accounted for an increase in Capex for 2023, expecting NOK 164m in total growth and sustaining Capex.

All in we deem this to be a solid report, delivering slightly above expectations. On a valuation level, we don't expect to make material changes on the back of this report, as we adjusted volumes up and unit cash costs down in our 4Q22 preview. The changes in accounting is however going to have an impact on non-adjusted estimates on the income statement from EBITDA and below in future reports.

DNB Markets høyner kursmål til 70 (65)