An operationally geared bet on the China recovery
Clarksons Platou er ute med en oppdatering på Rana Gruber i dag;
China's easing of COVID-19 restrictions combined with property sector support
has been driving iron ore prices from around $80/t at the start of November to
around the $110/t mark today.
While we by no means believe that the reopening
of China is going to be an easy task without some setbacks on the road, the new
path of the country is positive for the prospects of iron ore demand in the medium
to long term.
On a three-month basis, Rana has been lagging peers, despite being
an operationally geared player with high sensitivity to changes in iron ore prices.
Should the current forward curve persist, we believe the company could deliver
a 2023 dividend yield of around 18%, which we deem attractive.
We increase
our target price on Rana Gruber to NOK59/share representing a 28% upside to
yesterday's close and upgrade our rating from Neutral to Buy.
China's easing of COVID-19 restrictions combined with property sector support
has been driving iron ore prices from around $80/t at the start of November to
around the $110/t mark today.
While we by no means believe that the reopening
of China is going to be an easy task without some setbacks on the road, the new
path of the country is positive for the prospects of iron ore demand in the medium
to long term.
On a three-month basis, Rana has been lagging peers, despite being
an operationally geared player with high sensitivity to changes in iron ore prices.
Should the current forward curve persist, we believe the company could deliver
a 2023 dividend yield of around 18%, which we deem attractive.
We increase
our target price on Rana Gruber to NOK59/share representing a 28% upside to
yesterday's close and upgrade our rating from Neutral to Buy.
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Vampyren
27.02.2023 kl 08:11
4144
Australia
Among stocks, Materials tanked 3.2% overall as Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO) dipped 3%, BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) lost 3.2% and Champion Iron Ltd (ASX:CIA) lost 6.7%, while Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX:FMG) shed 7.3%
Among stocks, Materials tanked 3.2% overall as Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO) dipped 3%, BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) lost 3.2% and Champion Iron Ltd (ASX:CIA) lost 6.7%, while Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX:FMG) shed 7.3%
Redigert 27.02.2023 kl 08:14
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Whatnow
03.03.2023 kl 16:36
3874
Idag Rana Grubler jeg på om ikke dette er en av børsens mest spennende aksje og for ikke å snakke om veldig sannsynlig muligens den mest underprisa aksjen i min portefølje.
Redigert 03.03.2023 kl 17:20
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Tiur11
03.03.2023 kl 20:24
3806
har du vært med i denne lenge? q1 2023 kan bli veldig bra viss prisene holder frem så nå...3 kr.pr.aksje for q4 2022 var lang over forventa
Whatnow
04.03.2023 kl 09:18
3712
Har vært med siden en vakker dag da jeg fann ut at det var en jerngruve aksje på børsen vår. Kjøpte mine første opp på 60 tallet for snart et år siden. Så selte jeg meg ut på 50 tallet når det begynte å gå ned og kjøpte tilbake extra mye når jeg satsa på den hadde stabilisert seg og bunna ut på 40. Du da?
Tiur11
04.03.2023 kl 10:50
3641
Har vært med hele veien siden sommeren 2021, dype daler og høye topper. med flere fastprisavtaler på inntektene og utgiftene som kanskje en unngår de voldsomme svingningene fremover. med høyere produksjon, renere jernmalmkonsentrat (fra 62 til 65%) en cargill avtale om en får solgt alt som blir produsert i mangen år (2030)....
Redigert 04.03.2023 kl 10:55
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The Godfather
06.03.2023 kl 14:46
3440
Clarksons
■ Iron ore slips on China's GDP growth target and another round of steel production curbs
- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange slipped 2.1% to $129.70/t this morning, while the most-traded March contract in Singapore is down 1.3% to $123.85/t at the time of writing.
China's GDP growth target of about 5% has disappointed markets this morning.
In addition, China's top steelmaking hub Tangshan, introduced another round of production curbs on March 4 as an emergency response to heavy air pollution forecasts.
■ Iron ore slips on China's GDP growth target and another round of steel production curbs
- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange slipped 2.1% to $129.70/t this morning, while the most-traded March contract in Singapore is down 1.3% to $123.85/t at the time of writing.
China's GDP growth target of about 5% has disappointed markets this morning.
In addition, China's top steelmaking hub Tangshan, introduced another round of production curbs on March 4 as an emergency response to heavy air pollution forecasts.
Redigert 06.03.2023 kl 14:51
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The Godfather
10.03.2023 kl 11:44
3189
Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Kina tar nye grep for å hindre hamstring av jernmalm etter den seneste oppgangen i jernmalmprisene. Myndighetene i Beijing oppfordrer trading-selskaper som lagrer jernmalm i store volumer i havner til å selge noe av beholdningene, sier ikke navngitte kilder til Bloomberg News.
Videre vurderer myndighetene også å øke havnelagerleie for store volumlaster.
Beijing har lenge prøvd å finne måter for å få mer innflytelse innen jernmalmmarkedet gitt landets store importavhengighet fra et lite antall globale gruveselskaper, skriver nyhetstjenesten fredag.
Jernmalmprisene falt på nyheten før de delvis hentet seg inn igjen. Prisene handlet opp 0,6 prosent til 128,35 dollar pr tonn klokken 09:51 etter å ha vært opp så mye som 2,4 prosent tidligere i handelssesjonen.
Videre vurderer myndighetene også å øke havnelagerleie for store volumlaster.
Beijing har lenge prøvd å finne måter for å få mer innflytelse innen jernmalmmarkedet gitt landets store importavhengighet fra et lite antall globale gruveselskaper, skriver nyhetstjenesten fredag.
Jernmalmprisene falt på nyheten før de delvis hentet seg inn igjen. Prisene handlet opp 0,6 prosent til 128,35 dollar pr tonn klokken 09:51 etter å ha vært opp så mye som 2,4 prosent tidligere i handelssesjonen.
The Godfather
16.03.2023 kl 13:10
2911
Clarksons
Iron Ore
■ ASX 300 Metals & Mining index drops 3.4% on risk-off sentiment
- The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index dropped 3.4% this morning, following yesterday's volatile trading sessions in the US and Europe on fears of a banking crisis. Heavyweights BHP, Rio Tinto and FMG fell 4.8%, 4.0% and 3.2% respectively.
The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down 2.8% to $130.70/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is trading down 2.4% $129.00/t at the time of writing.
On the supply side, BHP is potentially facing a $44bn lawsuit in London over the Samarco dam disaster in 2015. BHP was initially sued by 200 thousand claimants, but that numbers has more than tripled to 700 thousand. 19 people were killed in the dam disaster but the 40 million cubic meters of mud and mining waste that was released also damaged buildings and polluted water supplies in multiple villages and cities. In other news,
Rana Gruber (RANA, Buy) announced its annual report this morning, in a pretty uneventful release given that 4Q results have been out for a month. The company continues to see solid demand for its products in 2023, and is working with customers to prepare them for the upgrade in concentrate quality to Fe65% expected by 2025. The company paid out NOK 6/sh in dividends in 2023 and on our estimates, we believe dividends could reach about NOK 14/sh in 2023 on current iron ore prices.
Iron Ore
■ ASX 300 Metals & Mining index drops 3.4% on risk-off sentiment
- The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index dropped 3.4% this morning, following yesterday's volatile trading sessions in the US and Europe on fears of a banking crisis. Heavyweights BHP, Rio Tinto and FMG fell 4.8%, 4.0% and 3.2% respectively.
The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down 2.8% to $130.70/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is trading down 2.4% $129.00/t at the time of writing.
On the supply side, BHP is potentially facing a $44bn lawsuit in London over the Samarco dam disaster in 2015. BHP was initially sued by 200 thousand claimants, but that numbers has more than tripled to 700 thousand. 19 people were killed in the dam disaster but the 40 million cubic meters of mud and mining waste that was released also damaged buildings and polluted water supplies in multiple villages and cities. In other news,
Rana Gruber (RANA, Buy) announced its annual report this morning, in a pretty uneventful release given that 4Q results have been out for a month. The company continues to see solid demand for its products in 2023, and is working with customers to prepare them for the upgrade in concentrate quality to Fe65% expected by 2025. The company paid out NOK 6/sh in dividends in 2023 and on our estimates, we believe dividends could reach about NOK 14/sh in 2023 on current iron ore prices.
The Godfather
21.03.2023 kl 15:32
2719
Clarksons
■ Iron ore continue to slip on steel curbs
- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down 2.2% to $127.88/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is down 1.1% to $124.10/t at the time of writing.
Ongoing production curbs in steel hubs Tangshan and Handan imposed due to heavy air pollution forecasts are weighing on the market, adding to more long term fears from last week's rumor of a potential annual steel cut in China.
Reuters reported this morning that the country is weighing a ~2.5% cut, although some officials have reportedly commented that such a cut would be too high to support a recovery of the Chinese economy. A final decision is expected by June.
In 2021, monthly steel production dropped from 99Mt in May to 69Mt in November after authorities started to enforce curbs to secure a yearly decline in steel output. The curbs came after a period of high iron ore prices and multiple warnings to traders regarding excessive market speculation, somewhat similar to the warnings that are currently being dished out.
■ Iron ore continue to slip on steel curbs
- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down 2.2% to $127.88/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is down 1.1% to $124.10/t at the time of writing.
Ongoing production curbs in steel hubs Tangshan and Handan imposed due to heavy air pollution forecasts are weighing on the market, adding to more long term fears from last week's rumor of a potential annual steel cut in China.
Reuters reported this morning that the country is weighing a ~2.5% cut, although some officials have reportedly commented that such a cut would be too high to support a recovery of the Chinese economy. A final decision is expected by June.
In 2021, monthly steel production dropped from 99Mt in May to 69Mt in November after authorities started to enforce curbs to secure a yearly decline in steel output. The curbs came after a period of high iron ore prices and multiple warnings to traders regarding excessive market speculation, somewhat similar to the warnings that are currently being dished out.
The Godfather
22.03.2023 kl 13:51
2639
Clarksons
■ Iron ore continues to slide on China fears
- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down another 2.2% to $125.70/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is down 2.9% to $119.95/t at the time of writing.
Fears over a potential 2.5% annual production cut for crude steel in China is weighing on the market. In addition, steel hubs Tangshan and Handan imposed curbs to production as an emergency response to heavy air pollution.
■ Iron ore continues to slide on China fears
- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down another 2.2% to $125.70/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is down 2.9% to $119.95/t at the time of writing.
Fears over a potential 2.5% annual production cut for crude steel in China is weighing on the market. In addition, steel hubs Tangshan and Handan imposed curbs to production as an emergency response to heavy air pollution.
The Godfather
23.03.2023 kl 13:08
2542
Clarksons
■ Iron ore slips on sluggish China demand
- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down another 2.0% to $125.05/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is down 1.8% to $118.10/t at the time of writing.
According to Reuters, apparent demand for construction steel products slipped 6.1% week-on-week to 4.53 million tonnes in the week as of 23 March.
■ Iron ore slips on sluggish China demand
- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down another 2.0% to $125.05/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is down 1.8% to $118.10/t at the time of writing.
According to Reuters, apparent demand for construction steel products slipped 6.1% week-on-week to 4.53 million tonnes in the week as of 23 March.
The Godfather
12.04.2023 kl 13:06
2196
Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Rana Gruber produserte 434.000 tonn konsentrat i første kvartal 2023, sammenlignet med 406.000 tonn i første kvartal 2022.
Det fremgår av en kvartalsoppdatering fra selskapet onsdag.
Produksjonen av jernmalm i kvartalet var 1.135.000 tonn, mot 1.271.000 tonn i første kvartal 2022. Volum solgt av hematitt var 423.000 tonn i første kvartal 2023, som tilsvarer syv forsendelser. Endelig oppgjør av disse forsendelsene vil skje i april, mai, og juni.
Det fremgår av en kvartalsoppdatering fra selskapet onsdag.
Produksjonen av jernmalm i kvartalet var 1.135.000 tonn, mot 1.271.000 tonn i første kvartal 2022. Volum solgt av hematitt var 423.000 tonn i første kvartal 2023, som tilsvarer syv forsendelser. Endelig oppgjør av disse forsendelsene vil skje i april, mai, og juni.
Vampyren
13.04.2023 kl 16:33
2083
Kina senker jernmalmprisen 😱
https://www.finansavisen.no/industri/2023/04/13/8000482/kina-senker-jernmalmprisen
https://www.finansavisen.no/industri/2023/04/13/8000482/kina-senker-jernmalmprisen
Redigert 13.04.2023 kl 16:35
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Vampyren
14.04.2023 kl 15:20
1989
China to release plan to cap steel output at 2022 level -Bloomberg News
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-steel-production/china-to-release-plan-to-cap-steel-output-at-2022-level-bloomberg-news-idINL4N36G1IJ
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-steel-production/china-to-release-plan-to-cap-steel-output-at-2022-level-bloomberg-news-idINL4N36G1IJ
The Godfather
24.04.2023 kl 11:52
1797
RANA: DNB MARKETS NEDJUSTERER KURSMÅL TIL 65 (70), GJENTAR KJØP
Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): DNB Markets nedjusterer sitt kursmål på Rana Gruber til 65 kroner fra 70 kroner og gjentar kjøpsanbefaling på aksjen, ifølge en oppdatering søndag.
Meglerhuset har nedjustert estimater for 2024-2025 med 27-30 prosent etter 12-14 prosent nedgang i jernmalmfutures.
Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): DNB Markets nedjusterer sitt kursmål på Rana Gruber til 65 kroner fra 70 kroner og gjentar kjøpsanbefaling på aksjen, ifølge en oppdatering søndag.
Meglerhuset har nedjustert estimater for 2024-2025 med 27-30 prosent etter 12-14 prosent nedgang i jernmalmfutures.
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