💰 FRO - Kursmål 350,- 💰
Tror aksjen kan gå i 350 kroner
Clarksons Securities venter solide resultater fra Frontline og holder muligheten åpen for at aksjekursen kan nå 350 kroner om et år eller to.
Clarksons Securities venter solide resultater fra Frontline og holder muligheten åpen for at aksjekursen kan nå 350 kroner om et år eller to.
Redigert 15.03.2023 kl 09:05
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ibyx
21.04.2023 kl 15:34
5638
kan komme en kraftig rekyl snart? FRO faller nesten 4% på NYSE mens Close peer DHT faller kun 1%
ibyx
21.04.2023 kl 16:08
5560
Nissos Kythnos (2019 - Modern Scrubber) On Subs (Estimated Voyage CII: A 🟢) USG/UKC Equinor Kyklades Maritime (TCE: RV USD 73K @ 43 days / Actual USD 61K @ 52 days)
Er ikke dette et OET skip?
Er ikke dette et OET skip?
ibyx
21.04.2023 kl 18:15
5381
Jeg er jo ganske fersk i shipping. Men tolker dette som stor grad av opportunisme/spekulasjon. Se bare hvor hardt den kjørtes i åpningen på NYSE også. Tror det er litt "gammel vane" i denne? Mange som synes det er for lite "action". Skremme ut på stoploss, dagshorting...
Jeg prøver å holde et øye med peers. Særlig på NYSE. primært DHT, men også Eurnav og andre. Når FRO kjøres solo i bunn som nå så kan det være lurt å ihvertfall prøve å ikke selge på bunn i en slutthandel.. kanskje heller kjøpe? Vel. Det ble noen stoploss her. Men også tilbakekjøp helt i bunn. Heldigvis klarte jeg å selge en del på onsdagstoppen. Men som en sa her. FOMO er fort et problem. Og oppgangene kommer saktere enn nedgangene, slik at du selger for tidlig.. Akkurat nå "buller" den på NYSE. Fortsatt i minus selvsagt, men ny HOD 165.66 nå.
Tror man må være litt sta og ikke for skvetten, men samtidig ha vett til å ikke bli sittende for enhver pris.
Vel, man kan jo våge å sitte long med utgangspunkt i prospektene, mangel på skip og alt det der som kommer. Det er vel opp til enhver å vurdere.
Men noen av oss har hørt om oljepriser på 200USD og slikt som ganske sikkert skulle komme osv..
Men et foreløpig kursmål på fx 200 skjønner vi jo er svært realistisk. HOY er tross alt 205,5..
FRO er gjerne fortsatt i korreksjonsmodus i en stigende supersyklus...
Jeg prøver å holde et øye med peers. Særlig på NYSE. primært DHT, men også Eurnav og andre. Når FRO kjøres solo i bunn som nå så kan det være lurt å ihvertfall prøve å ikke selge på bunn i en slutthandel.. kanskje heller kjøpe? Vel. Det ble noen stoploss her. Men også tilbakekjøp helt i bunn. Heldigvis klarte jeg å selge en del på onsdagstoppen. Men som en sa her. FOMO er fort et problem. Og oppgangene kommer saktere enn nedgangene, slik at du selger for tidlig.. Akkurat nå "buller" den på NYSE. Fortsatt i minus selvsagt, men ny HOD 165.66 nå.
Tror man må være litt sta og ikke for skvetten, men samtidig ha vett til å ikke bli sittende for enhver pris.
Vel, man kan jo våge å sitte long med utgangspunkt i prospektene, mangel på skip og alt det der som kommer. Det er vel opp til enhver å vurdere.
Men noen av oss har hørt om oljepriser på 200USD og slikt som ganske sikkert skulle komme osv..
Men et foreløpig kursmål på fx 200 skjønner vi jo er svært realistisk. HOY er tross alt 205,5..
FRO er gjerne fortsatt i korreksjonsmodus i en stigende supersyklus...
ibyx
21.04.2023 kl 18:28
5373
Eco Seas (2016 - Modern Scrubber) On Subs (Estimated Voyage CII: A 🟢) Brazil/UKC Stasco Trafigura (TCE: RV USD 77K @ 40 days / Actual USD 48K @ 57 days)
Nickhead
21.04.2023 kl 18:55
5385
I'am back !!!!!
Grattis til alle longerne.Nå er alle millionærer. Dumme meg solgte for ca 1 mnd for 10 .
Unnskyld.
Eg så på feil aksje (:
Kjøpte meg opp i dag.
Lev og lær
Også du hvalbiff !!!!
Grattis til alle longerne.Nå er alle millionærer. Dumme meg solgte for ca 1 mnd for 10 .
Unnskyld.
Eg så på feil aksje (:
Kjøpte meg opp i dag.
Lev og lær
Også du hvalbiff !!!!
ibyx
23.04.2023 kl 11:45
4732
En kommentar til Barstads ferske ABG presentasjon her. Crisu har kanskje et poeng?
At Free cash flow er høy vs. pris på aksjen nå?
At about 2:03:00 $FRO report they make aroung 4-6$ per share in Free Cash flow. Current share price is ~15$.
I would say that is incredibly high
https://twitter.com/Crisu24383242/status/1650044359197204480
At Free cash flow er høy vs. pris på aksjen nå?
At about 2:03:00 $FRO report they make aroung 4-6$ per share in Free Cash flow. Current share price is ~15$.
I would say that is incredibly high
https://twitter.com/Crisu24383242/status/1650044359197204480
velkjent
23.04.2023 kl 12:11
4736
Det kommer vel an på..
MPCC har cash flow på i overkant av en dollar/aksje, mens kursen er ca. $1,70, og folk må mene det er lavt ettersom de selger aksjen ned.
MPCC har cash flow på i overkant av en dollar/aksje, mens kursen er ca. $1,70, og folk må mene det er lavt ettersom de selger aksjen ned.
ibyx
23.04.2023 kl 12:29
4779
Nettopp. Spørsmålet er hva det da kommer an på..
Da er det gjerne likedan ellers i sektoren?
"Folk" (og roboter?) vil gjerne ha utbyttene, men ikke betale en høyere pris for dem..
Da er det gjerne likedan ellers i sektoren?
"Folk" (og roboter?) vil gjerne ha utbyttene, men ikke betale en høyere pris for dem..
Redigert 23.04.2023 kl 12:32
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velkjent
23.04.2023 kl 12:58
4758
Fordelen med lav kurs er lav formueskatt og risikoen for kursfall. Dessuten kan en leve av utbyttene uten å selge aksjen om en har mange nok. Jeg foretrekker å være innteksmillionær fremfor formuesmillionær, selv om de ikke utelukker hverandre.
Redigert 23.04.2023 kl 12:59
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Flipper
23.04.2023 kl 12:58
4950
Nei, det er et Kyklades Maritime skip
https://www.kykmar.gr/Ship
Flåte
https://www.kykmar.gr/nissos-kythnos/
Kyklades :
https://www.kykmar.gr/Ship
Flåte
https://www.kykmar.gr/nissos-kythnos/
Kyklades :
ks1977
23.04.2023 kl 16:19
4735
Jeg vurderte å svare på spørsmålet tidligere, men droppet det da jeg ikke så relevansen for en FRO-tråd, men dette er faktisk et OET-skip (Kyklades, som har samme hovedeiere som OET, har den tekniske operasjonen av skipene - derav forvirringen)
https://www.okeanisecotankers.com/fleet/
https://www.okeanisecotankers.com/fleet/
ibyx
23.04.2023 kl 16:28
4763
Jeg postet jo denne som et ex på rateoppnåelese den dagen. OET og FRO driver jo forøvrig veldig mye med samme type frakt. Så ble jeg litt nysgjerrig på navnet osv. her. Greit å ha avklart!
ibyx
23.04.2023 kl 16:51
4757
Ellers virker det som "folk/markedet" har snudd sine kapper etter nedtrenden vi har sett denne uka, og "skryter på seg" å skulle få enda billigere aksjer (OET til 220 osv). Jeg vet nå ikke helt. Tar det det med en klype salt!
Det blir som å høre på en TA robot. Er alltid en dag eller to bakpå "trenden".
Hold/Accumulate sier roboten om FRO nå (var vel nylig sell). Sell candidate heter det om OET...
Da får vi ta med Hafnia også! Buy candidate, heter det der!
Det spriker over det hele med andre ord...
Og "plutselig" skjer det noe som virker *helt opplagt*..
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/golden-week-china-air-travel-010000924.html
Det blir som å høre på en TA robot. Er alltid en dag eller to bakpå "trenden".
Hold/Accumulate sier roboten om FRO nå (var vel nylig sell). Sell candidate heter det om OET...
Da får vi ta med Hafnia også! Buy candidate, heter det der!
Det spriker over det hele med andre ord...
Og "plutselig" skjer det noe som virker *helt opplagt*..
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/golden-week-china-air-travel-010000924.html
ibyx
24.04.2023 kl 10:20
4244
https://www.finansavisen.no/finans/2023/04/24/8003024/spar-syk-boom-i-shippingkjempe
Er det FRO det siktes til bak muren?
Cleaves securities ser oppside på 121% i FRO
OET 102%
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1650402250957676545
Er det FRO det siktes til bak muren?
Cleaves securities ser oppside på 121% i FRO
OET 102%
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1650402250957676545
kodenavn
24.04.2023 kl 10:49
4177
FA:
Peter Einan Christensen har våknet opp etter helgen nærmest som en ny mann. Mandag morgen er analytikeren ute med en voldsom oppgradering av Frontline-aksjen. Christensen har vært stålbull tidligere, og pepret ut kjøpsanbefalinger som har truffet godt. Men nå endrer han sitt tidligere optimistiske kursmål på 23 dollar til hele 34 dollar. Vi snakker følgelig om en Frontline-kurs på 350 kroner mens aksjen handles til bare 161 kroner på børsen. Cleaves-kundene vet i hvert fall hva de skal kjøpe mandag.
Peter Einan Christensen har våknet opp etter helgen nærmest som en ny mann. Mandag morgen er analytikeren ute med en voldsom oppgradering av Frontline-aksjen. Christensen har vært stålbull tidligere, og pepret ut kjøpsanbefalinger som har truffet godt. Men nå endrer han sitt tidligere optimistiske kursmål på 23 dollar til hele 34 dollar. Vi snakker følgelig om en Frontline-kurs på 350 kroner mens aksjen handles til bare 161 kroner på børsen. Cleaves-kundene vet i hvert fall hva de skal kjøpe mandag.
ibyx
24.04.2023 kl 10:56
4155
Helt greit å sikte tangering av HOY i første omgang. 205, ca 25%
Skal vær bra med realisme i det tallet da.
I mellomtiden får vi se hva "shortpakket" klarer å komme opp med av "gode tilbud"!
Skal vær bra med realisme i det tallet da.
I mellomtiden får vi se hva "shortpakket" klarer å komme opp med av "gode tilbud"!
Redigert 24.04.2023 kl 10:59
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ibyx
24.04.2023 kl 11:10
4111
Har noe blitt sagt om tidsperspektiv på disse elleville kursmålene i FRO, OET og flere?
ibyx
24.04.2023 kl 12:10
3950
Det tok 7 børsdager fra 152 "nobrainerbunnen" til ca 181, ca 18% opp.
Det tok 3 dager derfra tilbake til ca 160, ca 12% ned.
Mens kursmål øker og tidsvindu minker...
Hvor mange dager til neste 18% løft og 190?
Det tok 3 dager derfra tilbake til ca 160, ca 12% ned.
Mens kursmål øker og tidsvindu minker...
Hvor mange dager til neste 18% løft og 190?
Flipper
24.04.2023 kl 13:14
3808
Switch to green e-methanol would raise bunker costs by 340%
Will take a loooong time, and we will IMO have to live with a duel market, and
what is the purpose as long as no scrapping due to financial reasons, Central
banks, 1st of all India/Bangladesh.
If/when the war Ukraine ends, the country has to be repaired, will require lots
of steel.
EU and Monetary Funds have already pleged several Billions to restore Ukraine.
Skrap prices for steel plates still high, close to 600 per ton LTD, bit how will that
help as long as we have th host fleet ? 2nd hand ships being sold for further trading
at high prices,which increase the value of fleet for owners.
Switch to green e-methanol would raise bunker costs by 340%
in International Shipping News,Shipping: Emission Possible 24/04/2023
Following the cost forecasts publicised by Drewry two weeks ago, which have been widely circulated across the industry, we have revised and expanded our forecasts of estimated future container shipping costs for different fuel types.
In this exercise, the accounting of the costs is complex. A higher price for green e-methanol and a full price for grey methanol plus green certificates, as well as a lower Emission Trading Scheme allowance cost of €100 per tonne of CO2 must be considered. Drewry has arrived at even higher cost implications for shippers.
Without switching to greener fuel, the estimated bunker and fuel-related carbon tax cost for a 40ft container from Asia to Europe will increase by 35% by 2026 – see chart.
At the other end of the scale, if adopting green e-methanol (methanol produced using green energy), the cost increase would be about 350% (based on available cost data, which is subject to uncertainty given the lack of scale and experience of this new fuel). This would mean an extra cost of $1,047 per 40ft container from Asia to Europe.
Rest
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/switch-to-green-e-methanol-would-raise-bunker-costs-by-340/
Will take a loooong time, and we will IMO have to live with a duel market, and
what is the purpose as long as no scrapping due to financial reasons, Central
banks, 1st of all India/Bangladesh.
If/when the war Ukraine ends, the country has to be repaired, will require lots
of steel.
EU and Monetary Funds have already pleged several Billions to restore Ukraine.
Skrap prices for steel plates still high, close to 600 per ton LTD, bit how will that
help as long as we have th host fleet ? 2nd hand ships being sold for further trading
at high prices,which increase the value of fleet for owners.
Switch to green e-methanol would raise bunker costs by 340%
in International Shipping News,Shipping: Emission Possible 24/04/2023
Following the cost forecasts publicised by Drewry two weeks ago, which have been widely circulated across the industry, we have revised and expanded our forecasts of estimated future container shipping costs for different fuel types.
In this exercise, the accounting of the costs is complex. A higher price for green e-methanol and a full price for grey methanol plus green certificates, as well as a lower Emission Trading Scheme allowance cost of €100 per tonne of CO2 must be considered. Drewry has arrived at even higher cost implications for shippers.
Without switching to greener fuel, the estimated bunker and fuel-related carbon tax cost for a 40ft container from Asia to Europe will increase by 35% by 2026 – see chart.
At the other end of the scale, if adopting green e-methanol (methanol produced using green energy), the cost increase would be about 350% (based on available cost data, which is subject to uncertainty given the lack of scale and experience of this new fuel). This would mean an extra cost of $1,047 per 40ft container from Asia to Europe.
Rest
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/switch-to-green-e-methanol-would-raise-bunker-costs-by-340/
Flipper
24.04.2023 kl 14:02
3776
Longer voyages, aging fleet to boost global tanker freight despite OPEC+ output cuts
Longer voyages are likely to support global tanker freight in the second quarter of 2023 because of a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, an aging fleet and shrinking newbuilding orderbook, but lower oil supply and concerns about an economic recession could cap those gains, market participants said April 10.
A coalition of OPEC and other oil producers have announced voluntary crude output cuts of about 1.16 million b/d from May, over and above a reduction of 2 million b/d that is in effect for 2023 and a 500,000 b/d curtailment announced by Russia in February. Lower output and exports can pressure tanker demand, but industry experts said the correlation is not as straightforward and hinges on several other factors.
The extent of the impact of OPEC+ cuts will greatly depend on why they were made in the first place, Ole-Rikard Hammer, Oslo-based senior analyst, oil and tankers at Arctic Securities, told S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“If this is a precautionary move to counter an incoming recession, the tanker market will definitely feel it and will have a challenging next few months,” Hammer said.
But if lower supply reflects growing confidence in China’s economic recovery and its ability to sustain higher oil prices, the impact on tanker freight will be moderate, he said.
Higher Chinese demand and US exports could offset OPEC+ output cuts, brokers said.
“OPEC’s decision is not a move in the right direction for tanker owners, but its impact on freight has been largely overestimated,” said Enrico Paglia, a Genoa-based research manager with shipping brokerage and consultancy Banchero Costa, or Bancosta.
Prior to the OPEC+ announcement, London-based Maritime Strategies International, or MSI, forecast the daily average spot Very Large Crude Carrier earnings at $48,400 in the April-June quarter, considering voyages to China from the US and the Persian Gulf, up 15% from the fourth quarter of 2022. MSI forecast that the estimated fourth-quarter Long Range 2 tanker earnings of $41,500/d on the Persian Gulf-Japan route may remain steady in the second quarter.
Half a million b/d of output cut by Russia was already announced in February and had more to do with the effects of sanctions than global crude oil supply and demand, Paglia said.
But the fundamentals are strong. “The fundamentals show that the demand for oil is picking up and replacement of ships is slow, though there will be usual peaks and troughs but at higher levels,” an executive with a VLCC-owning company said. VLCC owners are even seeking higher time-charter rates for a duration of up to one year, as they expect freight to strengthen. Ships that are less than 15 years old are seeking $110,000-$120,000 for a three-month charter, brokers said. WOW
“The tanker fleet is not only relatively old, the supply is extraordinarily favorable to owners due to one of the lowest orderbooks in modern times,” said Hammer.
The reorganization of trade flows due to sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has boosted tanker demand, with crude oil and products travelling longer distances when the dirty tanker fleet is expected to grow just 1% in 2023, compared with 4% in 2022, Paglia said.
In the first quarter, mid-size tankers such as Suezmaxes garnered a larger share of crude hauling from the Persian Gulf to Europe, according to brokers. Aframaxes that were withdrawn from Kozmino loading during this period were rechartered elsewhere, indicating that owners are capable of adapting to the current price cap on Russian oil and sanctions.
A bigger cause for concern for tanker owning companies than OPEC+ supply cuts is the health of the global economy, Paglia said.
Hammer said that the “global oil trade is becoming ever more complex because of sanctions,” but OPEC+ maybe more optimistic about China, and if demand is strong, imports will be sourced from the Atlantic rather than the Persian Gulf, increasing ton-miles and reducing the impact of supply cuts on freight.
MSI’s London-based Director Tim Smith in a report said VLCC spot rate fluctuations are often associated with movements in crude prices and their substantial drop in the first half of March certainly affected freight. The average January-March VLCC freight in 2023 for the benchmark Persian Gulf-China route fell 16% quarter on quarter to $16.28/mt, S&P Global data showed.
Saudi Arabia’s 500,000 b/d oil production cut from May will probably weigh on VLCC demand in the short term, said Bancosta’s Paglia.
Some of the other output cuts are small and largely agreed by countries having trouble meeting their quotas, he said. Moreover, Iran and non-OPEC+ producers may increase their exports to compensate for the cuts, aiding ton-mile demand, Paglia said.
If oil prices rise sharply, OPEC+ may reverse these cuts, and that implies that the prospects of a strong rally in shipping freight into the next winter have actually improved, Arctic’s Hammer said.
Longer voyages are likely to support global tanker freight in the second quarter of 2023 because of a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, an aging fleet and shrinking newbuilding orderbook, but lower oil supply and concerns about an economic recession could cap those gains, market participants said April 10.
A coalition of OPEC and other oil producers have announced voluntary crude output cuts of about 1.16 million b/d from May, over and above a reduction of 2 million b/d that is in effect for 2023 and a 500,000 b/d curtailment announced by Russia in February. Lower output and exports can pressure tanker demand, but industry experts said the correlation is not as straightforward and hinges on several other factors.
The extent of the impact of OPEC+ cuts will greatly depend on why they were made in the first place, Ole-Rikard Hammer, Oslo-based senior analyst, oil and tankers at Arctic Securities, told S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“If this is a precautionary move to counter an incoming recession, the tanker market will definitely feel it and will have a challenging next few months,” Hammer said.
But if lower supply reflects growing confidence in China’s economic recovery and its ability to sustain higher oil prices, the impact on tanker freight will be moderate, he said.
Higher Chinese demand and US exports could offset OPEC+ output cuts, brokers said.
“OPEC’s decision is not a move in the right direction for tanker owners, but its impact on freight has been largely overestimated,” said Enrico Paglia, a Genoa-based research manager with shipping brokerage and consultancy Banchero Costa, or Bancosta.
Prior to the OPEC+ announcement, London-based Maritime Strategies International, or MSI, forecast the daily average spot Very Large Crude Carrier earnings at $48,400 in the April-June quarter, considering voyages to China from the US and the Persian Gulf, up 15% from the fourth quarter of 2022. MSI forecast that the estimated fourth-quarter Long Range 2 tanker earnings of $41,500/d on the Persian Gulf-Japan route may remain steady in the second quarter.
Half a million b/d of output cut by Russia was already announced in February and had more to do with the effects of sanctions than global crude oil supply and demand, Paglia said.
But the fundamentals are strong. “The fundamentals show that the demand for oil is picking up and replacement of ships is slow, though there will be usual peaks and troughs but at higher levels,” an executive with a VLCC-owning company said. VLCC owners are even seeking higher time-charter rates for a duration of up to one year, as they expect freight to strengthen. Ships that are less than 15 years old are seeking $110,000-$120,000 for a three-month charter, brokers said. WOW
“The tanker fleet is not only relatively old, the supply is extraordinarily favorable to owners due to one of the lowest orderbooks in modern times,” said Hammer.
The reorganization of trade flows due to sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has boosted tanker demand, with crude oil and products travelling longer distances when the dirty tanker fleet is expected to grow just 1% in 2023, compared with 4% in 2022, Paglia said.
In the first quarter, mid-size tankers such as Suezmaxes garnered a larger share of crude hauling from the Persian Gulf to Europe, according to brokers. Aframaxes that were withdrawn from Kozmino loading during this period were rechartered elsewhere, indicating that owners are capable of adapting to the current price cap on Russian oil and sanctions.
A bigger cause for concern for tanker owning companies than OPEC+ supply cuts is the health of the global economy, Paglia said.
Hammer said that the “global oil trade is becoming ever more complex because of sanctions,” but OPEC+ maybe more optimistic about China, and if demand is strong, imports will be sourced from the Atlantic rather than the Persian Gulf, increasing ton-miles and reducing the impact of supply cuts on freight.
MSI’s London-based Director Tim Smith in a report said VLCC spot rate fluctuations are often associated with movements in crude prices and their substantial drop in the first half of March certainly affected freight. The average January-March VLCC freight in 2023 for the benchmark Persian Gulf-China route fell 16% quarter on quarter to $16.28/mt, S&P Global data showed.
Saudi Arabia’s 500,000 b/d oil production cut from May will probably weigh on VLCC demand in the short term, said Bancosta’s Paglia.
Some of the other output cuts are small and largely agreed by countries having trouble meeting their quotas, he said. Moreover, Iran and non-OPEC+ producers may increase their exports to compensate for the cuts, aiding ton-mile demand, Paglia said.
If oil prices rise sharply, OPEC+ may reverse these cuts, and that implies that the prospects of a strong rally in shipping freight into the next winter have actually improved, Arctic’s Hammer said.
Flipper
24.04.2023 kl 14:03
3769
Longer voyages, aging fleet to boost global tanker freight despite OPEC+ output cuts
Longer voyages are likely to support global tanker freight in the second quarter of 2023 because of a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, an aging fleet and shrinking newbuilding orderbook, but lower oil supply and concerns about an economic recession could cap those gains, market participants said April 10.
A coalition of OPEC and other oil producers have announced voluntary crude output cuts of about 1.16 million b/d from May, over and above a reduction of 2 million b/d that is in effect for 2023 and a 500,000 b/d curtailment announced by Russia in February. Lower output and exports can pressure tanker demand, but industry experts said the correlation is not as straightforward and hinges on several other factors.
The extent of the impact of OPEC+ cuts will greatly depend on why they were made in the first place, Ole-Rikard Hammer, Oslo-based senior analyst, oil and tankers at Arctic Securities, told S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“If this is a precautionary move to counter an incoming recession, the tanker market will definitely feel it and will have a challenging next few months,” Hammer said.
But if lower supply reflects growing confidence in China’s economic recovery and its ability to sustain higher oil prices, the impact on tanker freight will be moderate, he said.
Higher Chinese demand and US exports could offset OPEC+ output cuts, brokers said.
“OPEC’s decision is not a move in the right direction for tanker owners, but its impact on freight has been largely overestimated,” said Enrico Paglia, a Genoa-based research manager with shipping brokerage and consultancy Banchero Costa, or Bancosta.
Prior to the OPEC+ announcement, London-based Maritime Strategies International, or MSI, forecast the daily average spot Very Large Crude Carrier earnings at $48,400 in the April-June quarter, considering voyages to China from the US and the Persian Gulf, up 15% from the fourth quarter of 2022. MSI forecast that the estimated fourth-quarter Long Range 2 tanker earnings of $41,500/d on the Persian Gulf-Japan route may remain steady in the second quarter.
Half a million b/d of output cut by Russia was already announced in February and had more to do with the effects of sanctions than global crude oil supply and demand, Paglia said.
But the fundamentals are strong. “The fundamentals show that the demand for oil is picking up and replacement of ships is slow, though there will be usual peaks and troughs but at higher levels,” an executive with a VLCC-owning company said. VLCC owners are even seeking higher time-charter rates for a duration of up to one year, as they expect freight to strengthen. Ships that are less than 15 years old are seeking $110,000-$120,000 for a three-month charter, brokers said. WOW
“The tanker fleet is not only relatively old, the supply is extraordinarily favorable to owners due to one of the lowest orderbooks in modern times,” said Hammer.
The reorganization of trade flows due to sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has boosted tanker demand, with crude oil and products travelling longer distances when the dirty tanker fleet is expected to grow just 1% in 2023, compared with 4% in 2022, Paglia said.
In the first quarter, mid-size tankers such as Suezmaxes garnered a larger share of crude hauling from the Persian Gulf to Europe, according to brokers. Aframaxes that were withdrawn from Kozmino loading during this period were rechartered elsewhere, indicating that owners are capable of adapting to the current price cap on Russian oil and sanctions.
A bigger cause for concern for tanker owning companies than OPEC+ supply cuts is the health of the global economy, Paglia said.
Hammer said that the “global oil trade is becoming ever more complex because of sanctions,” but OPEC+ maybe more optimistic about China, and if demand is strong, imports will be sourced from the Atlantic rather than the Persian Gulf, increasing ton-miles and reducing the impact of supply cuts on freight.
MSI’s London-based Director Tim Smith in a report said VLCC spot rate fluctuations are often associated with movements in crude prices and their substantial drop in the first half of March certainly affected freight. The average January-March VLCC freight in 2023 for the benchmark Persian Gulf-China route fell 16% quarter on quarter to $16.28/mt, S&P Global data showed.
Saudi Arabia’s 500,000 b/d oil production cut from May will probably weigh on VLCC demand in the short term, said Bancosta’s Paglia.
Some of the other output cuts are small and largely agreed by countries having trouble meeting their quotas, he said. Moreover, Iran and non-OPEC+ producers may increase their exports to compensate for the cuts, aiding ton-mile demand, Paglia said.
If oil prices rise sharply, OPEC+ may reverse these cuts, and that implies that the prospects of a strong rally in shipping freight into the next winter have actually improved, Arctic’s Hammer said.
Longer voyages are likely to support global tanker freight in the second quarter of 2023 because of a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, an aging fleet and shrinking newbuilding orderbook, but lower oil supply and concerns about an economic recession could cap those gains, market participants said April 10.
A coalition of OPEC and other oil producers have announced voluntary crude output cuts of about 1.16 million b/d from May, over and above a reduction of 2 million b/d that is in effect for 2023 and a 500,000 b/d curtailment announced by Russia in February. Lower output and exports can pressure tanker demand, but industry experts said the correlation is not as straightforward and hinges on several other factors.
The extent of the impact of OPEC+ cuts will greatly depend on why they were made in the first place, Ole-Rikard Hammer, Oslo-based senior analyst, oil and tankers at Arctic Securities, told S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“If this is a precautionary move to counter an incoming recession, the tanker market will definitely feel it and will have a challenging next few months,” Hammer said.
But if lower supply reflects growing confidence in China’s economic recovery and its ability to sustain higher oil prices, the impact on tanker freight will be moderate, he said.
Higher Chinese demand and US exports could offset OPEC+ output cuts, brokers said.
“OPEC’s decision is not a move in the right direction for tanker owners, but its impact on freight has been largely overestimated,” said Enrico Paglia, a Genoa-based research manager with shipping brokerage and consultancy Banchero Costa, or Bancosta.
Prior to the OPEC+ announcement, London-based Maritime Strategies International, or MSI, forecast the daily average spot Very Large Crude Carrier earnings at $48,400 in the April-June quarter, considering voyages to China from the US and the Persian Gulf, up 15% from the fourth quarter of 2022. MSI forecast that the estimated fourth-quarter Long Range 2 tanker earnings of $41,500/d on the Persian Gulf-Japan route may remain steady in the second quarter.
Half a million b/d of output cut by Russia was already announced in February and had more to do with the effects of sanctions than global crude oil supply and demand, Paglia said.
But the fundamentals are strong. “The fundamentals show that the demand for oil is picking up and replacement of ships is slow, though there will be usual peaks and troughs but at higher levels,” an executive with a VLCC-owning company said. VLCC owners are even seeking higher time-charter rates for a duration of up to one year, as they expect freight to strengthen. Ships that are less than 15 years old are seeking $110,000-$120,000 for a three-month charter, brokers said. WOW
“The tanker fleet is not only relatively old, the supply is extraordinarily favorable to owners due to one of the lowest orderbooks in modern times,” said Hammer.
The reorganization of trade flows due to sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has boosted tanker demand, with crude oil and products travelling longer distances when the dirty tanker fleet is expected to grow just 1% in 2023, compared with 4% in 2022, Paglia said.
In the first quarter, mid-size tankers such as Suezmaxes garnered a larger share of crude hauling from the Persian Gulf to Europe, according to brokers. Aframaxes that were withdrawn from Kozmino loading during this period were rechartered elsewhere, indicating that owners are capable of adapting to the current price cap on Russian oil and sanctions.
A bigger cause for concern for tanker owning companies than OPEC+ supply cuts is the health of the global economy, Paglia said.
Hammer said that the “global oil trade is becoming ever more complex because of sanctions,” but OPEC+ maybe more optimistic about China, and if demand is strong, imports will be sourced from the Atlantic rather than the Persian Gulf, increasing ton-miles and reducing the impact of supply cuts on freight.
MSI’s London-based Director Tim Smith in a report said VLCC spot rate fluctuations are often associated with movements in crude prices and their substantial drop in the first half of March certainly affected freight. The average January-March VLCC freight in 2023 for the benchmark Persian Gulf-China route fell 16% quarter on quarter to $16.28/mt, S&P Global data showed.
Saudi Arabia’s 500,000 b/d oil production cut from May will probably weigh on VLCC demand in the short term, said Bancosta’s Paglia.
Some of the other output cuts are small and largely agreed by countries having trouble meeting their quotas, he said. Moreover, Iran and non-OPEC+ producers may increase their exports to compensate for the cuts, aiding ton-mile demand, Paglia said.
If oil prices rise sharply, OPEC+ may reverse these cuts, and that implies that the prospects of a strong rally in shipping freight into the next winter have actually improved, Arctic’s Hammer said.
Backline
24.04.2023 kl 14:17
3738
Det er vel vanligvis 6-12 mnd. horisont på kursmålene. Det er lett å sette kursmål, men det er sjelden de slår til. Uansett hjelper det på stemningen på Oslo børs når kursmål heves. Så får vi se hvordan reaksjonen er på den andre siden av dammen litt senere.
ibyx
24.04.2023 kl 14:29
3696
6-12 måneder er kanskje ikke så lenge i forhold til slike kursmål. Generelt er jo 6-12 måneder en "evighet" på børs da!
US har definitivt fått dette med seg. Bare å sjekke twitter.
Man kan vel anta at det bygger seg opp til en skarpere kamp mellom short og long, hvor long vinner i et 6-12 måneders perspektiv.
Det kan bli mange om å plukke billige aksjer dersom "dumpingen" fra forrige uke fortsetter!
Det skal gjerne ristes litt i starten som de har for vane på NYSE.
US har definitivt fått dette med seg. Bare å sjekke twitter.
Man kan vel anta at det bygger seg opp til en skarpere kamp mellom short og long, hvor long vinner i et 6-12 måneders perspektiv.
Det kan bli mange om å plukke billige aksjer dersom "dumpingen" fra forrige uke fortsetter!
Det skal gjerne ristes litt i starten som de har for vane på NYSE.
Backline
24.04.2023 kl 16:11
3485
Det ble fart i sakene på NYSE. 5,6% opp i skrivende stund. Nå er det store spørsmålet om den fine utviklingen fortsetter i morgen, eller om vi skal ned igjen.
ibyx
24.04.2023 kl 16:23
3449
Vanskelig å si selvsagt. Den er fortsatt i korreksjonsmodus ift HOY 205. Så markedet har allerede anerkjent oppsiden...
Tidsvinduet blir stadig mindre...
Reprising i DHT 8,2% nå.
Tidsvinduet blir stadig mindre...
Reprising i DHT 8,2% nå.
Redigert 24.04.2023 kl 16:25
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ibyx
24.04.2023 kl 16:41
3385
Sterk avslutning 173,38. Sluttet på litt over gjennomsnittlig volum og i praksis på HOD.
Oppe i 174,73 på NYSE
Oppe i 174,73 på NYSE
Redigert 24.04.2023 kl 16:43
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ibyx
24.04.2023 kl 17:30
6294
Jammen holder de det ikke gående oppover ennå! 177,2 NOK
Det gir gjerne god mening for noen av oss? Hvor mange teskjeer skal det inn med at det blir underskudd på skip med ditto konsekvenser for ratene?
Kraftig volum også. allerede over 50% av normaldag.
Det gir gjerne god mening for noen av oss? Hvor mange teskjeer skal det inn med at det blir underskudd på skip med ditto konsekvenser for ratene?
Kraftig volum også. allerede over 50% av normaldag.
Redigert 24.04.2023 kl 17:40
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Backline
24.04.2023 kl 17:54
6235
Veldig bra driv i dag. Den går nok litt tilbake før slutt, men at det avsluttes et sted nord for 16,5 er ikke utenkelig. Med en slik rask oppgang sitter en med dilemmaet om en skal redusere litt for å ha mer krutt ved en eventuell korreksjon ned. Det er faktisk like vanskelig hver gang, å selge seg litt ned, når en samtidig er sikker på at aksjen skal betydelig opp før neste utbytte.
NOELLE
24.04.2023 kl 17:58
6222
Tank med FRO i spissen går amok i US:)
Skal se vi får en 8- 10 % opp i FRO og ikke minst juvelen på OSE -Okeanis, i morgen.
Skal se vi får en 8- 10 % opp i FRO og ikke minst juvelen på OSE -Okeanis, i morgen.
Redigert 24.04.2023 kl 17:58
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Backline
24.04.2023 kl 18:29
6132
Markedet begynner å tro på at Kina faktisk kommer til å trenge mye olje fremover. Fortsetter styrkingen av oljeprisen seg, vil nok Fro-kursen holde seg sterk fremover.
https://www.finansavisen.no/finans/2023/04/24/8003222/oljerally-i-innspurten-sendte-borsen-solid-i-gront :
Oljeprisen
Brent-oljen skjøt opp like før børsen stengte og sto opp 1 prosent til 82,48 dollar fatet, mens WTI-oljen sto opp 1,1 prosent til 78,61 dollar fatet. Til sammenligning kostet et fat nordsjøolje 81,59 ved børsstenging i Oslo fredag. Over helgen har oljeprisen dermed falt med 1 dollar.
– Svake amerikanske nøkkeltall og skuffende kvartalsrapporter fra teknologisektoren utløste vekstbekymringer og risikoaversjon blant investorer. Stabiliserende dollar og stigende obligasjonsrenter presser også råvaremarkedene, sier CMC Markets-analytiker Tina Teng, ifølge Reuters.
Likevel forblir analytikere og tradere optimistiske til Kinas drivstoffetterspørsel mot andre halvdel av 2023 ettersom ytterligere forsyningskutt planlagt av OPEC+ fra mai vil kunne stramme inn markedene, ifølge TDN Direkt.
Økningen i oljeetterspørselen fra Kina forventes å mer enn oppveie nedgangen i OECD-etterspørselen på kort sikt, mens sanksjoner og forsyningsbegrensninger øker oppsiderisikoen for prisene, sier analytikere ved National Australia Bank. De tror ifølge Reuters at Brent-oljen kan stige til 92 dollar pr fat innen slutten av andre kvartal.
https://www.finansavisen.no/finans/2023/04/24/8003222/oljerally-i-innspurten-sendte-borsen-solid-i-gront :
Oljeprisen
Brent-oljen skjøt opp like før børsen stengte og sto opp 1 prosent til 82,48 dollar fatet, mens WTI-oljen sto opp 1,1 prosent til 78,61 dollar fatet. Til sammenligning kostet et fat nordsjøolje 81,59 ved børsstenging i Oslo fredag. Over helgen har oljeprisen dermed falt med 1 dollar.
– Svake amerikanske nøkkeltall og skuffende kvartalsrapporter fra teknologisektoren utløste vekstbekymringer og risikoaversjon blant investorer. Stabiliserende dollar og stigende obligasjonsrenter presser også råvaremarkedene, sier CMC Markets-analytiker Tina Teng, ifølge Reuters.
Likevel forblir analytikere og tradere optimistiske til Kinas drivstoffetterspørsel mot andre halvdel av 2023 ettersom ytterligere forsyningskutt planlagt av OPEC+ fra mai vil kunne stramme inn markedene, ifølge TDN Direkt.
Økningen i oljeetterspørselen fra Kina forventes å mer enn oppveie nedgangen i OECD-etterspørselen på kort sikt, mens sanksjoner og forsyningsbegrensninger øker oppsiderisikoen for prisene, sier analytikere ved National Australia Bank. De tror ifølge Reuters at Brent-oljen kan stige til 92 dollar pr fat innen slutten av andre kvartal.
Natig
24.04.2023 kl 18:39
6103
"Clarksons Securities venter solide resultater fra Frontline og holder muligheten åpen for at aksjekursen kan nå 350 kroner om et år eller to."
Med manko på tonnasje og økende etterspørsel i Kina kan dette gå kjappere enn 1 - 2 år. Kanskje vi kan halvere denne tiden?
Ta en titt på Flippers innlegg fra den 13.4. Noe han har hentet fra et forum i JUnaiten. Kan bli et heftig Frontline år om dette slår til!f
Med manko på tonnasje og økende etterspørsel i Kina kan dette gå kjappere enn 1 - 2 år. Kanskje vi kan halvere denne tiden?
Ta en titt på Flippers innlegg fra den 13.4. Noe han har hentet fra et forum i JUnaiten. Kan bli et heftig Frontline år om dette slår til!f
Redigert 24.04.2023 kl 18:48
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cheezy
24.04.2023 kl 19:19
6003
Her har det ikke gått så bra som jeg trodde. Jeg tror at den viktigeste grunnen er at "skyggeflåten" øker i størrelse. Det vil si at skip ikke blir skrapet som normalt, men går i det uregulerte markedet. Dette kan gå en stund. Men det er en grunn til at det er strenge miljøregler. Det er nok at en gammel rustholk forliser, og så kommer flere land til å gjøre tiltak for at de ikke skal ha svineriet utenfor sine kyster.
Leotwin
24.04.2023 kl 19:41
5928
Går da rimelig bra så langt i år😅 husk at alle skip som selges til skyggeflåten reduserer den ordinære flåten. De kommer nok heller aldri tilbake som annet enn spiker. Fro frakter ikke russisk olje, så for Fro er det faktisk en fordel.
Ellers enig i det du sier om faren for miljøulykke, og eventuelle tiltak som da kan komme…
Ps: ikke bare huggeklare skip som selges til skyggeflåten, også skip som har noen år igjen. Problemet her er at disse neppe følger periodisk vedlikehold mv.
Ellers enig i det du sier om faren for miljøulykke, og eventuelle tiltak som da kan komme…
Ps: ikke bare huggeklare skip som selges til skyggeflåten, også skip som har noen år igjen. Problemet her er at disse neppe følger periodisk vedlikehold mv.
Redigert 24.04.2023 kl 19:44
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cheezy
24.04.2023 kl 21:49
5675
Frontline selger typisk fartøyene når de blir ca. 10 år gamle. Historisk har de da gått for rederier med en annen profil til de blir 20 år, og så blir de solgt til opphugging. Nå går mange av de ti år gamle skipene inn i skyggeflåten. De blir derimot ikke skrotet før 20-års klassing. Så det blir lavere avgang enn det ellers skulle ha vært.
Leotwin
24.04.2023 kl 22:08
5620
Enig i alt du sier, men det blir da vitterlig færre skip i den ordinære flåten (hvor Fro opererer). Tenker du at frakt av russisk olje fortrenger frakt av olje i det ordinære markedet? Og på den måten (mer enn) utligner færre skip? I dette regnestykket må uansett økt tonnmile regnes inn, samt at det nesten ikke leveres nye skip, og enda færre er bestilt. Kommer Kina tilbake for fullt, tipper jeg det blir mer enn nok å gjøre for begge flåter😊
ibyx
25.04.2023 kl 10:38
5052
Barstad for noen minutter siden:
#Bloomberg note today. #Russia #Oil exports are not reacting at all to stated to 'cuts' according to tracking (#Kpler). Looking at estimated voayge length (rhs) check feb-22 to present. 'Grey fleet' #tanker utilization takes capacity out of our markets $FRO #OOTT
https://twitter.com/lh_barstad
#Bloomberg note today. #Russia #Oil exports are not reacting at all to stated to 'cuts' according to tracking (#Kpler). Looking at estimated voayge length (rhs) check feb-22 to present. 'Grey fleet' #tanker utilization takes capacity out of our markets $FRO #OOTT
https://twitter.com/lh_barstad
ibyx
25.04.2023 kl 10:52
5018
“We are upgrading $EURN to Buy as the uncertainty with respect to a potential merger has been resolved and shares can be valued on their own merits. Our favorite name currently is INSW.”
Fra 17 till 22USD
Bra for FRO også som eier en slump der.
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1650756354510839808/photo/1
Fra 17 till 22USD
Bra for FRO også som eier en slump der.
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1650756354510839808/photo/1
ibyx
25.04.2023 kl 12:08
4930
Spørs om ikke FRO tåler litt sidelengs rater en kort periode etter korreksjonen ned til 152 og sterke oppdgraderinger på kursmål!
Fearnley's morning note with a warning of softer (crude) tanker rates on the horizon. Seasonality + other factors, outlined below:
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1650799345938120705/photo/1
Fearnley's morning note with a warning of softer (crude) tanker rates on the horizon. Seasonality + other factors, outlined below:
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1650799345938120705/photo/1
ibyx
25.04.2023 kl 12:55
4850
Ny båt!
Camus (2023) entered the VLCC Scrubber pool on 29/Apr/2023
(ikke FRO da dessverre)
Camus (2023) entered the VLCC Scrubber pool on 29/Apr/2023
(ikke FRO da dessverre)
Flipper
25.04.2023 kl 14:17
4716
Slots ytterligere forskjøvet vedr. VLCC's
Global Orderbook on the Rise After First Quarter
The global orderbook rose by about 160 vessels after the end of the first quarter of 2023, despite lower annual activity.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroker XClusiv said that “as the first quarter of 2023 ended, the total orderbook of the
four main components of the merchant fleet has increased by about 160 vessels (6.5%) compared to the end of the first
quarter of 2022. The orderbooks of dry bulk, container and gas carrier segments have seen their numbers increase by
19%, 16% and 31% respectively
* * but on the other side tanker orderbook saw its numbers drop almost by half, in fact by
more than * * 40%. Despite the total orderbook increase, the first quarter of 2023 is
characterized by fewer new contracts than in Q1/2022, something that may indicate a
pause in interest and demand in the market for newbuildings as the slots are too far forward
and prices are remaining firm”.
Rest of article with graphs:
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/global-orderbook-on-the-rise-after-first-quarter/
Global Orderbook on the Rise After First Quarter
The global orderbook rose by about 160 vessels after the end of the first quarter of 2023, despite lower annual activity.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroker XClusiv said that “as the first quarter of 2023 ended, the total orderbook of the
four main components of the merchant fleet has increased by about 160 vessels (6.5%) compared to the end of the first
quarter of 2022. The orderbooks of dry bulk, container and gas carrier segments have seen their numbers increase by
19%, 16% and 31% respectively
* * but on the other side tanker orderbook saw its numbers drop almost by half, in fact by
more than * * 40%. Despite the total orderbook increase, the first quarter of 2023 is
characterized by fewer new contracts than in Q1/2022, something that may indicate a
pause in interest and demand in the market for newbuildings as the slots are too far forward
and prices are remaining firm”.
Rest of article with graphs:
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/global-orderbook-on-the-rise-after-first-quarter/
ibyx
25.04.2023 kl 15:40
4573
Flere anbefalinger. En reprise her. Greit for bøte på korttidshukommelsen på NYSE>OSE
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1650855733066600448/photo/1
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1650855733066600448/photo/1
ibyx
25.04.2023 kl 16:50
4506
Til å leve med?
Hili (2019 - Modern Scrubber) On Subs (Estimated Voyage CII: C 🟡) AG/China KPC ADNOC (TCE: RV USD 58K @ 45 days / Actual USD 76K @ 37 days)
Hili (2019 - Modern Scrubber) On Subs (Estimated Voyage CII: C 🟡) AG/China KPC ADNOC (TCE: RV USD 58K @ 45 days / Actual USD 76K @ 37 days)
ibyx
25.04.2023 kl 19:42
4293
Opp på høyt volum igår. Og ned på moderat volum idag. Den kjøres jo også hardere på NYSE. Vi fikk ikke like kraftig opptur igår fx.
Man kan jo lure på om utsiktene i sektoren nå har begynt å sige såpass inn at fond og andre som gjerne holder seg borte fra svingdørsaksjer i shipping nå likevel velger å sitte litt tyngre og lengre? Utbyttene er jo fine å ta med i en fondsportefølje?
Vanskelig å si om fx STOXX Europe 600 noteringen nylig har hatt noen betydning i den forstand?
Volumet på FRO:OSE ble idag 72% av gjennomsnittet. Igår var det vel 106%. På NYSE var en høyere prosent. 3.390.652. Drøyt 10% over gjennomsnittet.
Man kan jo lure på om utsiktene i sektoren nå har begynt å sige såpass inn at fond og andre som gjerne holder seg borte fra svingdørsaksjer i shipping nå likevel velger å sitte litt tyngre og lengre? Utbyttene er jo fine å ta med i en fondsportefølje?
Vanskelig å si om fx STOXX Europe 600 noteringen nylig har hatt noen betydning i den forstand?
Volumet på FRO:OSE ble idag 72% av gjennomsnittet. Igår var det vel 106%. På NYSE var en høyere prosent. 3.390.652. Drøyt 10% over gjennomsnittet.
Redigert 25.04.2023 kl 19:50
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