Frontline beats forecast as oil tanker market improves

Volf
FRO 19.11.2018 kl 08:53 2999

Frontline beats forecast as oil tanker market improves
Innkommet 16.11.2018 17:45

* CEO says increasingly upbeat on tanker profits
* Adjusted for one-offs, Q3 loss $8.4 mln
* OPEC cuts, Iran sanctions may impact tanker demand

(Adds CEO quotes, details)
OSLO, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Frontline , one of the
world's largest oil tanker firms, posted a surprise
third-quarter profit on Friday, helped by rising rates for its
fleet.
The Oslo-listed shipper, controlled by billionaire investor
John Fredriksen, said the outlook was improving due to rising
global demand for crude after a lengthy downturn for shippers.
"We are increasingly optimistic that the tanker market will
generate profits going forward," Chief Executive Robert Hvide
Macleod told an investor call.
Net earnings for July to September swung to a profit of $2.2
million from a $24.1 million loss in the same period last year.
Adjusted for one-off gains, the company lost $8.4 million in
the quarter but still beat a forecast loss of $21.9 million in a
Reuters poll of analysts.
Frontline, which will not pay a dividend for the third
quarter, rose 4.7 percent in early trade but gave up most gains
to trade flat at 53.25 Norwegian crowns by 1515 GMT, lagging a
0.8 percent gain for the Oslo benchmark index.
"Oil inventory draws, fleet growth and production cuts have
been against us, but these important factors are now turning in
our favour. The most important factor, oil demand, remains
strong," the company said in a statement.
Global oil supply rose this year compared with 2017, helping
the tanker market, Frontline said.
In October, global output stood at 100.7 million barrels per
day (bpd), 2.6 million bpd more than a year ago, the
International Energy Agency said.
A fall in the Brent crude price has sparked renewed talk of
production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries.
"Obviously, it would be negative," Macleod said of any new
cuts. But he downplayed the impact: "I don't think it's going to
be a showstopper."
U.S. sanctions on Iran could mean more oil being transported
from the United States, where production has been surging,
Frontline said, adding this could help the tanker market.
Frontline also said it has ordered exhaust gas cleaning
systems for 12 more vessels, which it said would make its fleet
more attractive when tougher international emissions regulations
kick in from 2020.
It has so far announced plans to install so-called
"scrubbers" on 20 of its vessels, including two new tankers
being built.
The company owns 46 very large crude carriers (VLCCs),
Suezmax and Aframax tankers, and leases or manages another 17.

(Reporting by Terje Solsvik and Nerijus Adomaitis
Editing by Ole Petter Skonnnord and Edmund Blair)
((terje.solsvik@thomsonreuters.com; +47 918 666 70; Reuters
Messaging: terje.solsvik.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

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Volf
19.11.2018 kl 08:55 2997

TANK:8 VLCC-SLUTNINGER FREDAG, AKTIV TREND PÅ AG/KOREA OG V.AFR/KINA-FEARNLEYS
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om åtte VLCC-slutninger fredag. Rate-trenden beskrives som aktiv på AG/Korea- og Vest-Afrika/Kina-rutene, mens den beskrives som å ha bunnet ut på AG/USA-gulf-ruten.

Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Fearnleys.

Fra AG ble det sluttet fire reiser, til henholdsvis Singapore, Sør-Korea, Taiwan og Kina.

Videre ble det sluttet en reise fra Vest-Afrika til Østen eller Fjerne Østen, samt en reise fra den amerikanske delen av Mexicogulfen til enten Singapore eller Kina.

VLCC-ratene tenderte lavere den seneste uken og selv om etterspørselen falt på ukebasis var det ventet sterke etterspørselsbortfall grunnet industrikonferansen i Dubai, som godt kunne ha ført til enda brattere korreksjon, melder Charles R. Weber.

Skipsmeglerhuset anslår at det ved utgangen av november vil være et overtilbud på 14 VLCCer i AG, som er 2 skip mer enn ved utgangen av oktober.

==============================================================
Størrelse Strekning WS-rate TCE($) Trend
280 AG/USG 40,0 5.200 Svakere
270 AG/Korea 87,5 43.300 Svakere
260 VAFR/Kina 87,0 41.400 Svakere
==============================================================
Bunkerspris ($/MT 3880 CST):
==============================================================
Fujairah - 462
Singapore - 482
Rotterdam - 416
Offshore USG- 430
==============================================================
Slutningstelling AG:
==============================================================
Nov'18 - 145
Okt'18 - 157
Sep'18 - 138
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Volf
19.11.2018 kl 13:36 2834

Sakset fra DNB engelske analyser

FRONTLINE Target price raised to NOK83 We reiterate our BUY recommendation and have raised our target price to NOK83 (60). We forecast negative crude tanker fleet growth in 2019 and 2020 due to scrapping and IMO 2020 disruptions, and 5.0% 2019– 2020e tonne-mile growth, driven by US exports. We now apply our 2020 VLCC asset value forecast (put forward previously March 2018) of USD107m.
2020e EPS raised by 29% on scrubber earnings. We have raised 2018e net profit to USD8.6m (from USD-58m), trimmed 2019e net profit by 2%, and raised 2020 by 29% after applying surplus scrubber earnings to the company’s 20 scrubbers.
2019 and 2020 could see negative fleet growth, due to regulatory supply effects. We expect regulatory disruptions to lower crude tank supply by 1.7%-points in 2019 (from 1.2% to -0.5%) and by 1.4%-points in 2020 (from 0.3% to -1.1%). Compared to our tonne-mile demand growth forecast of 5.5% for 2019 and 4.0% for 2020, we believe the tanker sector is on the verge of a prolonged upcycle, primarily driven by regulations and US exports. The latter are extending the average VLCC sailing distance, as has happened in LNG in 2018 and as we saw in LPG in 2013–2015.
We apply our USD107m resale price, and debut USD116m with scrubbers. In our March tanker sector report, we forecast VLCC resale prices of USD92m by start-2019 (in line with current prices and up from USD84m in March) and USD107m by the start of 2020 based on our VLCC forecast of USD41k/day for 2020 (up from USD29k/day for 2019). With 2020 now just over a year away, and the supply/demand balance looking even firmer than we expected, we have shifted our valuation one year forward to incorporate a USD107m VLCC resale price. This increases to USD116m when we add our scrubber NPV valuation of USD9.3m.
BUY recommendation reiterated and target price raised to NOK83 (60) based on 1.25x our one-year forward NAV of NOK66/share and our 2020 tanker asset value forecast (33% upside potential to the value of a 5-year old VLCC) as well as our scrubber valuation of NOK4/share. We calculate a current NAV of NOK41/share (NOK37/share excluding scrubbers), up from NOK32/share in August.
Volf
21.11.2018 kl 08:58 2575

TANK:10 VLCC-SLUTNINGER TIRSDAG, "AKTIV RATETREND" -FEARNLEYS
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om ti VLCC-slutninger tirsdag. Rate-trenden beskrives som aktiv på AG/Korea- og Vest-Afrika/Kina-rutene, mens den beskrives som å ha bunnet ut på AG/USA-gulf-ruten.

Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Fearnleys.

Fra AG ble det sluttet fire reiser, til henholdsvis Singapore, Sør-Korea, Taiwan og Kina.

Videre ble det sluttet en reise fra Nordsjøen til Østen, samt en reise fra Vest-Afrika til Østen.

Det ble sluttet to reiser fra USA-gulfen til Kina, i tillegg til en reise fra Colombia til Kina.

Ellers er det gjort to slutninger der detaljene ikke er kjent for markedet.

==============================================================
Størrelse Strekning WS-rate TCE($) Trend
280 AG/USG 40,0 5.200 Bunnet ut
270 AG/Korea 88,0 43.300 Aktiv
260 VAFR/Kina 88,0 41.400 Aktiv
==============================================================
Bunkerspris ($/MT 3880 CST):
==============================================================
Fujairah - 463
Singapore - 473
Rotterdam - 405
Offshore USG- 430
==============================================================
Slutningstelling AG:
==============================================================
Des'18 - 20
Nov'18 - 144
Okt'18 - 157
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Volf
22.11.2018 kl 09:00 2340

ANK:VLCC-MARKEDET VISER TEGN TIL STYRKING IGJEN -FEARNLEYS
Oslo (TDN Direkt): VLCC-markedet viser tegn til styrking igjen etter en stille uke med de fleste markedsaktører er borte i Dubai, skriver Fearnleys i sin ukentlige rapport.

Vesten ser økt aktivitet spesielt i USA-gulfen og Karibia med stramme tonnasjelister for aktuelle datoer. Øst for Suez ser en tegn til at ting skifter i redernes favør, da de siste slutningsnivåene i økende grad blir vanskelig for befraktere å oppnå.

==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
WS-RATER SPOTMARKED Dwt. UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
AG-Vesten VLCC 40,00 41,00 16,00/41,00
--------------------------------------------------------------
AG-Japan VLCC 90,00 90,00 35,00/100,00
--------------------------------------------------------------
AG-Singapore VLCC 91,00 91,50 35,50/100,00
--------------------------------------------------------------
V.Afr-Fjerne-Østen 260.000 89,50 88,00 37,50/97,00
==============================================================
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
WS-RATER 1 år TC USD PR DAG UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
VLCC 32.500 31.500 21.000/32.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
Suezmax 22.500 22.000 15.000/22.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
Aframax 17.000 17.000 13.500/17.000
==============================================================
=============================================
DENNE FORRIGE
VLCC-MARKEDET UKE UKE
=============================================
VLCC-SLUTNINGER 48 40
---------------------------------------------
TILGJ. VLCCER I AG NESTE 30 DGR 120 120
=============================================
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
NYBYGGPRISER, MUSD UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
VLCC 300' dwt 90,50 90,50 82,00/90,50
--------------------------------------------------------------
Suezmax 150' dwt 61,00 61,00 55,00/61,00
--------------------------------------------------------------
Aframax 110' dwt 50,50 50,50 44,50/50,50
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Volf
23.11.2018 kl 09:07 2048

TANK:8 VLCC-SLUTNINGER TORSDAG, STABILE RATER -BASSØE
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om åtte VLCC-slutninger torsdag. Ratene beskrives som stabile på samtlige referanseruter.

Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra skipsmeglerforetaket P.F. Bassøe.

Fra AG ble det sluttet fem reiser, der to går til Sør-Korea, en går til Kina, en går til Østen og en går til Thailand.

Videre er det sluttet to reiser fra Brasil til Kina, samt en reise fra Mexicos østkyst via USA-gulfen til Sør-Korea.

Ratenivå (WS 2018):
==============================================================
VLCC Strekning Rate
270 AG/Kina WS 91,00 - Stabil
280 AG/Vesten WS 40,00 - Stabil
260 Vest-Afrika/Kina WS 90,00 - Stabil
270 Nordsjøen/S.pore USD 6,0m - Stabil- Behøver test
==============================================================
Bunkerspris (USD):
==============================================================
Fujairah - 448,00
Rotterdam - 397,00
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70