Hva ligger ratene på nå om dagen? Høyt 20-tall?

Pareto om Odfjell SE

A little under the radar, chemical tankers have accelerated in 2024. Global demand for chemicals is facing renewed growth, while Red Sea situation has increased voyage distances. With a product tanker market that keeps firing on all cylinders the swing tonnage is out near-term momentum should remain good – with peer Stolt-Nielsen confirming CoA renewals are done at materially higher level so far in 2024. Longer term, while the orderbook has increased to -8% of the existing fleet, fleet growth should remain low.

Der ble selgeren på 32k tatt ut, burde være Over 60kr mtp Odfjell og stolt Nielsen sin utvikling og guiding om kjemikaltank!

STST på hot stocks listen i dag. Uvanlig høy omsetning. Noe som skjer?

https://www.finansavisen.no/bors

Toget går,

Årsrapport idag

Outlook for 2024 and beyond
The positive momentum of the fourth quarter of 2023 has carried over into 2024 and we remain optimistic about the prospects for the rest of this year and beyond as we expect the currently supportive market fundamentals to remain in place for the foreseeable future.

With the transition of our fleet into Womar pool employment nearly complete, we are fully benefiting from the positive earnings environment where spot market TCEs are exceeding USD 20,000 per day. With an all-in cash break-even rate in 2024 of approximately USD 15,600 per day, we expect to generate substantial free cash flow this year, all of which we plan to pay out as dividends to our shareholders.

« -Vi ser at verdiene på eldre tonnasje har steget markant..»

https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2024/05/03/8126737/tailwind-tror-de-gode-tidene-i-shipping-fortsetter

Hva kan vi forvente i utbytte på onsdag?

Håper på 3 kr

Fra Fearnleys morgenrapport

Stainless Tankers (BUY, NOK 80)

• 1q24 preview – Expect increased dividends

STST will report 1q24 figures tomorrow before the market opens, and we expect a slight uptick in dividends q/q to USD 0.25/sh – equivalent to an annualised yield of 18%, though, we expect dividends to grow further over the year, increasing this yield further. Moreover, we estimate an EBITDA and EPS of USD 9m and 0.33 respectively. Looking into 2q24, we expect the mgmt. to provide positive market comments on the back of the recent strength in the chemical tanker market, and thus see STST earnings rise into 2q24.

Ser at Odfjell kom med en solid rapport i kveld. Jeg er spent på morgendagen. Stainless har vel hatt noen dockinger i q1 så håper markedet husker på det og justerer forventningene

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Stainless Tankers fikk en ebitda på 8,1 millioner dollar i første kvartal 2024, sammenlignet med 7,6 millioner dollar samme periode året før.

Det fremgår av selskapets kvartalsrapport onsdag.

Omsetningen i perioden var 16 millioner dollar (14), mens driftsresultatet ble 5,1 millioner dollar (5).

Selskapets pool-fartøy hadde en gjennomsnittlig netto TCE-rate på 20.615 dollar pr dag, mens fartøy under time charter-avtaler hadde en netto rate på 15.250 dollar pr dag.

Styret i selskapet foreslår et utbytte på 0,25 dollar pr aksje, tilsvarende 3,38 millioner dollar. Utbyttet vil bli betalt som tilbakebetaling av innbetalt kapital.

-Vi er glade for å rapportere et solid kvartal og ytterligere økning i utbyttet. Mens netto pool-TCE falt litt under målet vårt ettersom den forventede oppstrammingen av TCE-er tok noen uker lenger til å materialisere seg, har vi sett et veldig sterkt moment siden mars. Vi forventer at andre kvartal vil være vårt sterkeste kvartal til nå, med en samlet netto TCE som overstiger 23.000 dollar pr dag, kommenterer konsernsjef Alex Karakassis.

Hva blir dividende i q2?
Forutsetninger: TC rate på $23.400, 810 seilingsdager, 22% skatt, NOKUSD 10,9
Økning net income: $2800x810x0,78x10,9=NOK19,282.536
Økt utbytte: MNOK 19,3/13,52= NOK1,42
Utbytte q2: 2,7+1,4=NOK4,1
Utbytte yield p.a. 4,1/64,4x4=25,5%

Likviditeten i aksjen holder kursen nede. Vi får vente på at Mørkedal og Clarkson kommer med en oppdatering..Ny PT 90kr?

New chief executive for Stainless Tankers

https://splash247.com/new-chief-executive-for-stainless-tankers/

Tror du ligger for høyt på det meste
Docking i q2 så seilingsdager er nok et stykke under 800.. (770ish?)

Snittraten er nok også sørover. Ca 21k?

Jeg håper på rundt 3 kr i utbytte for q2 (aka ca $0,275)

Fearnley er ute med update i dag;

Benefitting from Stronger Markets

What’s New: 1q24 – TP up to NOK 81/sh, Buy maintained


• All vessels now operating in pool as last vessel is off fixed rate TC
• Lagging chemical peers, current equity pricing is a solid opportunity
• Priced at 0.8x 1yr fwd NAV, 19% dividend yield


Early May, the last vessel operating on fixed rate TC transitioned into the Womar Pool, meaning all 9x vessels is now trading within the pool. Moreover, chemical tanker freight rates are on the rise, with J19 spot rising above the USD 24k/d mark (vs. CBE of USD 14.3k/d). Hence, we believe STST earnings is due for an uplift in 2Q on the back of higher rates as well as all vessels being exposed to MtM COA and spot freight.

We estimate dividends to increase further into 2Q, and at current equity pricing, STST offers an impressive ’24-25 dividend yield of 19-20%. Given the equity also lags chemical tanker peer performance, we maintain our positive view towards the equity story. We raise our TP to NOK 81/sh and maintain our Buy recommendation (80/sh, 24.02.2024).

Du har nok delvis rett her i hvert fall når det gjelder seilingsdager. De har ett skip, Orchid sylt, på special servey i q2 og mistet også noen dager på med Orchid Madeira i starten av april. 770 er da et bedre estimat. Snittraten mener jeg du undervurderer vesentlig skal vi legge til grunn selskapets egne utsikter og markedsdata p,t,. Ser vi på flåten nå er siste skip overført til Womar pool 6 mai hvor rater ligger på +- 24k etter at de startet på 23,3 i april. Videre er 30% av flåten på COA m rater +23k og resten spot. STST sier selv i q1 rapporten at de forventer TCE over 23k i Q2. Min spådom er nærmere 24 enn 23. Og de blir fort liggende der ut året gitt det geopolitiske bakteppet og markedsbalansen vi har nå. For øvrig verdt å merke seg ar neste drydocking er først i 2025

Jeg kontakte selskapet og de bekrefter 764 seilingsdager i q2, 828 dager i q3 og 828 dager i q4. Ingen docking i andre halvår. Gir da også kostbesparelse på ca 1,3mill per kvartal i H2 eller drøye 1kr EPS
Da kan det være interessant å se litt på hva utbytte kan bli neste kvartaler basert på dagens spot rater. Bruker samme forutsetninger som tidligere med unntak av seilingsdager og veklsingskurs som settes til 10,6
Q2: 764 dager
Økning net income: $2800x764x0,78x10,6=NOK17,7mnok
Økt utbytte: MNOK 17,7/13,52= NOK1,3
Utbytte q2: 2,7+1,3=NOK4,0
Utbytte yield p.a. 4,0/65x4=24,6%

Q3 828 dager

Økning net income: $2800x828x0,78x10,6=MNOk 19,2
Økt utbytte: MNOK 19,2/13,52= NOK1,42
Utbytte q2: 2,7+1,4=NOK4,1
Utbytte yield p.a. 4,1/65x4=25,3,%

Q4 = Q3

I tillegg kommer bidrag fra økte seilingsdager q3 og q4 gitt q1 rater, kostbesparelser fra docking og redusert opex cet. par. pga opex
timing i q1. Holder ratene seg ut året, som selskapet forventer, kan vi se en utbytte yield over 25% og opp mot 28-30% dersom alt betales som utbytte
Man kan i hvert fall drømme seg litt bort💰🙂

Stolt N med CMD idag. God gang i kjemikaliefraktmarkedet. Smitter det over på Stainless?

"As part of today's presentation Stolt Tankers has revised its second-quarter guidance for average time-charter equivalent earnings to increase by 8-10% versus first quarter 2024 (up from a previously anticipated 6-8% increase as per the first-quarter results presentation)."
https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/621231

https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2024/06/25/8146495/seb-spar-supersyklus-i-mange-ar

Fearnley preview

Stainless Tankers (BUY, NOK 81)

• Reports 2q24 tomorrow / FSest USD 11m EBITDA, up USD 3m q/q

We expect STST to post 2q24 EBITDA of USD 11m, up USD 3m from 1q24, driven by an uplift in rates and all vessels trading in the Womar Pool from mid-May. EPS is estimated at 44 cents, representing a doubling q/q. With expectations of higher earnings, we see upside to STST’s shareholder distribution, estimating a 10% increase in dividends to 27.5 cents (19% annualized yield). Rates for chemical tankers have remained over the summer, although spot rates are somewhat below the peaks seen in May (though substantially higher y/y). Further, with current 1-yr TCs for J-19 at USD 22k/d (highest levels YTD) we expect a forward leaning update from STST.

Juicy utbytte.

Fra presentasjonen

Fleet market value up strongly at $174.04m; NAV at $102.5m or
$7.59/share (c. NOK 83.55/share)

Bull

Clarksons antyder i dag et ekstraordinært utbytte på NOK 6,5/aksje ved salg av to skip.

Stainless Tankers (STST NO, NOK 66.60, Buy, PT: NOK 80.00)

First Asset Sale On the Horizon?

Stainless Tankers (Oslo: STST) reported another strong quarter, driven by rising spot rates despite an increase in off-hire days. While spot rates have experienced the typical summer weakness, they remain high as we approach the seasonally strongest period. A dividend of $0.275/share was declared for the quarter, representing an annualized yield of 18%. The company expects this dividend to remain stable in the coming quarters. Asset values have also risen, with the NAV currently assessed at NOK 80/share. Due to the higher asset values and third-party interest, the company may divest its two older vessels. If this occurs at the end of the third quarter, an extraordinary dividend of approximately NOK 6.5/share could be distributed based on our estimates. Regardless of the potential asset sale, Stainless Tankers remains attractive from both an earnings and asset value perspective. We reiterate our Buy rating and NOK 80/share target price.

2Q24 Review: Stainless Tankers reported an EBITDA of $9.5 million, below the $11.0 million LSEG consensus estimate. The company achieved average earnings of $22,800/day, with pool earnings for the quarter at $23,800/day, aligning with guidance. The company experienced 71 off-hire days during the quarter, more than expected, explaining the underperformance. So far in the third quarter, the company has about 87% coverage for August at $22,600/day. While rates have slightly decreased, revenues are expected to benefit from fewer off-hire days, as the next drydocking is not scheduled until 2025. A dividend of $0.275/share has been declared for the quarter, a slight increase from $0.25/share in the previous quarter, which the company expects to remain stable in the coming quarters.

Potential Asset Sales: Stainless Tankers has always been an opportunistic asset play in the chemical tanker market, with plans to eventually divest its fleet. Management comments during the earnings call suggest the company may now sell its two oldest vessels. Acquired in November 2023 for $27 million and financed entirely with debt, these vessels are now valued at $16 million each, according to the company. Assuming a sale at the end of 3Q24, this could generate approximately $8.1 million or NOK 6.5/share in free cash flow after debt repayment, potentially distributed to shareholders.

Valuation: Asset values have continued to rise, and we currently assess the NAV at $7.4/share or roughly NOK 80/share. Secondhand values for J19 vessels are now trading at a premium to newbuilding parity values across all vintages but are well supported by current spot and time charter rates. We estimate that a rate of around $17,000/day is needed to justify an unleveraged return of 12% on our valuation of a 17-year-old J19 vessel. Overall, with reasonable asset valuation and attractive dividend potential, Stainless Tankers remains an appealing pure play in the chemical tanker market. We maintain our Buy rating and NOK 80 target price.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/stainless-tankers-weighs-sale-of-older-vessels-as-buyers-circle-says-andrew-hampson/2-1-1689342