139 neste uke.

Du tenker det blir en tur mot 145 Ibyx, har også en tro på det og venter med kjøp.

Ihvertfall 149! :-)
Så lenge ikke særlig OET, men også Hafnia blir med opp vil dette skje med over 90% sannsynlighet!
Tok gevinst litt for tidlig igår. Ble litt overrumplet over at det var så mye kraft der. Sommersløvhet. Er jo slike sprell som er "normalen" her egentlig! :-)

Skraping -

Noen tanker. Etter Ukraina / Russland konflikten blir det enorm etterspørsel etter stål for gjennom bygging. Da vil lokal valutaen i Pakistan / India og Bangladesh stige. Sentralbankene vil sannsynligvis stige vis a vie $ og mer villige til å gi Lettere of Credit ( remboursé ). Noe profit blir i $ vil vel
også ligge igjen for skraping firmane.

EU har allerede gitt løfte om EURO 250 milliarder, Verdensbanken gitt løfte om stor pengestøtte.

2ndhand verdiene vil synke på grå flåten likeså og mer interessant å skrape.



Kommentarer velkommen.


Intersant artikkel fra Wall Str. Journal forrige dagen - Link: Copyright (c)2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7/22/2023
Powered by TECNAVIA

This site provides a digital replica of the print newspaper and is intended for the personal use of our members. For commercial reproduction or distribution of Dow Jones printed content, contact: Dow Jones Reprints & Licensing at (800) 843-0008 or visit djreprints.com.

Copyright 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

U.S. Oil-Export Boom Hinges on One Town

BY DAVID U BERTI AND BENOT MORENNE |

The U.S. has transformed global markets by boosting crude-oil exports more than 30fold over the past decade. Much of the boom hinges on Corpus Christi Bay.

In the first four months of 2023, about half of the country's 4.1 million barrels of daily shipments abroad was loaded onto skyscraper- size tankers from this stretch of Texas coastline, destined to become fuel for overseas travelers or factories.

That gusher of supply has helped blunt the increase in prices from recent production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. In Europe, oil and natural gas shipped from the Gulf Coast have backstopped the continent as it weaned itself off Russian energy after the outbreak of the war on Ukraine.

Corpus Christi has become the dominant U.S. hub, siphoning crude from elsewhere thanks to unique terminals that make it cheaper than competitors. Now, ballooning trade from the port has put the U.S. on pace to pump out record oil exports this year, according to federal record-keepers.

But with pipelines nearing capacity and U.S. output set to reach new heights, competition is heating up among companies and investors over how to connect the American oil patch to a fuel-hungry world.

"The market is totally focused on taking shale production from the U.S. into international markets," said Rusty Braziel, chief executive of consulting firm RBN Energy.

Corpus Christi is the closest deep-draft port to the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, America's hottest oil field. Crude extracted from shale rock there, prized by overseas refineries for its light, sweet quality, trades at a premium to many other grades.

That oil was confined stateside as the shale boom unleashed unprecedented U.S. production growth. But after Washington nixed decades-old export restrictions in 2015, companies scrambled to build out pipelines to Corpus Christi, a South Texas city of about 320,000.

Various companies have since constructed storage tanks in Corpus Christi to hold tens of millions more barrels of oil near the water. Cheniere Energy is expanding a plant that can liquefy natural gas for export. Since 2020, dredgers have been at work deepening the port's ship channel and inner harbor to 54 feet from 47 feet currently, a more than $680 million operation that will allow many tankers to fill up close to capacity.

"You can't just build those facilities overnight," said Kent Britton, the Port of Corpus Christi's interim chief executive.

Ensuing growth in crude shipments has outpaced other launch points in Texas and Louisiana largely because of the economics of shipping. Export-ers that operate from Houston-Galveston and the main Port of Corpus Christi funnel shipments to smaller classes of tankers, which either carry cargoes abroad or ferry them to 1,100-foot supertankers anchored offshore in a dayslong process.

But across Corpus Christi Bay, in the small town of Ingle-side, Texas, oil terminals at a former Naval base are big enough that those massive ships can fill up about half of their two million barrels of capacity from shore.

"You can pretty much load your million barrels in 24 hours," said Lois Zabrocky, chief executive of International Seaways, which operates 13 so-called very large crude carriers.

Five tugboats then guide half-full VLCCs several miles out to sea, where smaller tankers top them off for delivery to refineries in Europe, Asia or elsewhere.

That streamlined loading process can pare the price of shipments compared with elsewhere on the Gulf Coast. Analysts said such differences became particularly crucial last year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine whipsawed energy markets and sent shipping costs skyrocketing.

Pipelines from the Permian to Corpus Christi are running at about 90% capacity, according to East Daley Analytics, a level at which traders might begin sending more crude toward Houston for refining or shipment abroad.

The midstream energy company Enbridge has responded by announcing an expansion of its pipeline to Corpus Christi by 200,000 barrels a day. Other companies have proposed environmentally contentious plans for multibillion-dollar deep-water terminals that would allow VLCCs to load up fully in the Gulf of Mexico.

For all their customers' focus on oil-and-gas exports, Corpus officials are preparing for a future when the U.S. exports nonfossil-fuel commodities such as hydrogen and ammonia. The port authority applied to receive some of the $8 billion that Washington pledged in its 2021 infrastructure package to develop regional hubs aimed at accelerating the use of hydrogen for energy.

Enbridge has said it would partner with the Norwegian fertilizer company Yara Inter-national to develop a plant to produce up to 1.4 million tons of ammonia a year at its Ingle-side terminal.

145 kan komme på ex dato for neste utbytte. Ellers ikke mulig. Hvis ikke børsene kræsjer da

Kanskje ikke 145, men 149 er fullt mulig uten de store krisehylene. Det er egentlig en smal traderkanal nå. Nesten for smal til å "forsvare" høy omsetning!
Så 145 skal selvsagt heller ikke utelukkes. Det er en god slump spekulativ kapital her som forventer "avkastning" vha krumspring! :-)
For de langsiktige, som vi vet, er dette mindre interessant. Det underliggende ligger så støtt som det kan... Underkontraheringen osv osv som vi har hørt om snart like lenge som resesjonen og olja i "200"!

Først et poeng jeg glemte i mitt forrige innlegg, WSJ, INGEN skip vil bli tillatt i US Terriotalt farvann og havner

Alle snakker mye om P&I forsikring; og klassifiserings ikke gjeldende på grå flåten.

Personlig tror jeg at John's trading under Irak og Iran konflikten. Iran ( kanskje også Irak )
fungerte al a som forsikrings garantier; skulle et av John's skip gå tapt ville Iran betale
for P&I og Hull og Maskin forsikring, med avtale om tap av skip ville betales av Starten Iran;
for hans shuttle trafikk ut til Kargh Island som lå lå utenfor betingelser i forsikrings betingelser.

Forsikrings betingelser inneholder ikke dekkes i krigssoner eller krikslignende
farvann. Derav, omlasting til skip Kargh Island, til skip som var klassifsert og utenfor
Krig eller krigslignende farvann.

* * *

Tror Iran fortsetter samme opplegg med den grå flåten. Flere skip ble solgt til helt ukjente selskaper i
Østen, til 2 til 3 ganger markedspris. Tror Iran eier disse selskapene.

Gard er en de største og mest seriøse forsikrings selskaper i verden skriver om forskjellen mellom P&I og
Hull & Machinery krigslignende:

1.8 THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN P&I AND HULL AND MACHINERY INSURANCE

For more detailed information, please refer to Gard News 178, The interface between Hull and Machinery insurance and P&I from the P&I claim handler’s perspective and Gard’s website www.gard.no.

As Gard is offering insurance cover for liabilities, known as P&I cover, as well as for damages to the own ship, known as Hull and Machinery cover, a brief summary will be provided to explain the basic differences between these two types of cover.

P&I insurance is primarily intended to cover a shipowner’s or operator’s liability towards third parties and it generally excludes damage to the insured’s own property or direct loss of the Company.

Hull and Machinery insurance is basically insurance of the client’s vessel as its primary asset. The two types of insurance interact in the area of collision liability and liability for contact damage to third party property.

Hull and Machinery insurance and P&I insurance are often complementary when it comes to collision liability and liability for damage to piers, loading cranes and other third party property, generally known as damage to fixed and floating objects (FFO).

Hull and Machinery (H&M) insurance may include cover for liabilities towards third parties depending upon the type of policy and scope of cover of that specific policy. Under the standard English Hull and Machinery insurance terms (ITC Hulls – Institute Time Clauses Hulls), collision liability cover has, historically, been limited to 3/4ths of the own ship’s liability towards the other vessel in a collision. However, under Norwegian and German Hull and Machinery insurance terms, the liability cover provided is for 4/4ths, i.e 100%, of the own ship’s liabilities towards the other vessel. Similarly, under the United Kingdom Hull and Machinery insurance terms, damage to so-called Fixed and Floating Objects (FFO), i.e. objects others than a vessel, is not covered at all whereas under Norwegian and German insurance terms these risks are covered 100%.

Some shipowners have placed full (4/4ths) collision liability under their P&I insurance. This collision liability cover would be the most comprehensive liability cover available, as all third party liability arising out of the collision would be covered in principle. However, the shipowner would still need his Hull and Machinery cover to deal with the loss of or damage to his own vessel.

Under Norwegian and German Hull and Machinery insurance conditions, cover is also provided in respect of liability arising out of the insured vessel striking third party property other than a vessel. The Hull and Machinery insurance covers loss or damage caused by the physical contact between the hull of the insured vessel, or equipment permanently affixed to the vessel, and third party property, for example a pier or buoy. Americans sometimes refer to such incidents as “allision” but this is not a term used universally. FFO (damage to fixed and floating objects) is the shorthand for striking damage under the English terms.

The situation is more complicated when oil escapes from the other vessel as a result of the collision. Under the Norwegian Hull and Machinery insurance conditions these liabilities are not covered, whilst they are covered under German Hull and Machinery insurance conditions.

The situation for damages and resulting liabilities becomes even more complicated if the vessel drags an anchor.

Remember, the cornerstone of the P&I cover is that it responds to liabilities that are not covered under the Hull and Machinery cover.

It is important that the Master and the ship’s officers have a full understanding of what is covered under the Hull and Machinery insurance policy as this determines what is covered by the P&I insurance. The Master will thus be in a position to understand whose insurer’s representative or correspondent should be contacted in any given incident.

Stay updated

n its latest weekly report, shipbroker Clarkson Platou Hellas said that “with another lacklustre week in the ship recycling industry, at least the world of sport is this week throwing up many different events: the Ashes, Formula 1 racing, the Women’s Football World Cup and the British Golf Open Championship, to entertain and divert the boredom away from the market place. Price levels are reportedly falling further in India on the back of the monsoon season hampering the destination and also, the weakened domestic steel market. Interestingly, there are also rumours of several vessels being re-routed from Chattogram towards India due to ongoing Letter of Credit restrictions and once again, it would appear financing in Bangladesh is difficult for tonnage over 10,000 ldt. With Pakistan remaining absent from the bidding table, there really is a sense of concern during these summer months as to where the available tonnage can be concluded to and +++ perhaps, the shortage of tonnage at this current time is a blessing in disguise”, the shipbroker said.+++

Ta en titt på det tekniske, og hold på hatten!

Teknisk vs rater?
Denne er vel ikke veldig sprek?
Hold på hatten eller slippe ut katten?
Vinteren er ikke her riktig ennå!

Front Gaula (2022)
Modern (Scrubber
26 Jul 2023 13:10
Trade
AG/China
Actual TCE/day including idle days
USD 38,130/day @ 55 days
RV TCE/day excluding idle days
USD 42,951/day @ 49 days
Breakeven TCE - 10% return TCE
USD 37,465/day - USD 52,893/day

i februar:
Front Gaula (2022 - Modern Scrubber) On Subs (Estimated Voyage CII: A ) AG/Korea SK Energy Frontline $FRO (TCE: RV USD 78K @ 48 days / Actual USD 76K @ 49 days)

Som "Fundamentalist" og null tro på "teknisk analyse", og med fugler som husdyr så vil jeg si følgende:

-Avliv katten, bare trøbbel
-Kjøp flere hatter (dvs alt av tank)

Når vinteren er her vil det være for sent eller i seneste laget.

Oppturen kommer, men det er ingen av oss som kan si når. Slik er markedet. Så en dag smeller det oppover, og er man ute da, så må man løpe etter eller finne noe annet å handle

🤣
Men hva tenker du om "Q3 spoteventyret" for tiden? Denne ser jo ikke veldig fin ut? Særlig OET får kanskje en *relativt* stort smekk som følge av Q3 spottgangen? Men dette er jo FRO båt da. :-)
Og først skal vi ha Q2 da. Den blir jo fin og kan "skjule/annulere" Q3 effekten pga at rateøkninger trår til tidsnok?
Kanskje tas hele Q3 dippen ut nå? 🤔

"Q3-spoteventyret" som du nevner er altfor kort tidshorisont. Den er bakt inn i kursene allerede.

Se på flåten. Historisk gammel innenfor både clean og crude. Se på salgene av gamle joller. Enormt høye ifht bokført verdi.

Se på de allerede kontraherte skipene. Tilnærmet ingen. Om jeg eller du hadde vært en reder nå (evt slått oss sammen og blitt en) og ville bestille en oljetanker fra et verft nå. Når ville den vært klar? Det er vel 2027 eller senere.... Verftene som kan bygge oljetankere er fullbooket med f.eks containerskip. Så det er tilnærmet umulig å få inn ny tonnasje.

Så bare vent på den effekten av en stadig aldrende tankflåte, skraping og skipenes svar på en "EU-kontroll" av bilen. Tar litt lenger tid for en tanker enn en bil :D Så de er ute av drift en liten stund. Så nydelig for selskaper som har en moderne flåte.

Og, til slutt. Ikke glem alle de nye miljøkravene ;) ;) ;)

Holder seg suspekt stabil rundt 158 kroner siste dager... Hva er det "de" pønsker på nå? Kan jo ikke ligge stille lenge denne. Fullstendig naturstridig! :-)

Skulle vi ikke til 145 igjen da ibyx eller blander jeg deg med en annen?
PS glad for at du er så aktiv på shippingtrådene, stas med litt aktivitet her når jeg sitter propplasta i alle varianter av tank :)

Sikkert kjipt å vente på 145 for å kjøpe nå. Opp over 3% i NY

Ble gevinst tett på 159 med kjøp i hafnia under 52 etterpå. Vi får se. Kanskje har vi sett slutten på under 150 en stund. Faller jo raskt 10 kroner når noen vil da. Torm steg nesten 4% på nyse.

selv gjør jeg det superenkelt, kjøper FRO på ~150 og hafnia ~50 når muligheten dukker opp, snitter meg fint ned etter idiotinngang på topp 9 mars i år.
Enda ikke solgt noe da, derfor jeg begynner å bli litt ukomfortabel, hadde aldri planer om å bruke SÅ mange % av penga mine på børs.. men føles trygt i fro og oet, produkttanker veit jeg ikke nok om men forstår grunntanken er den samme - mangel på skip de neste minst 2-3 år. Blir riktig så artig med utbytte q2 nå, FRO har dippa 150 minst 5 ganger siste par mnd :)

Hva er estimatene for EPS for Q2 ?

Ordreboken i product var lav i 2022, men har øket kraftig. Siden starten på 2023 har ordreboken steget fra 5,4% til 9,4%, dvs en dobling. Dette er skip som vil bli levert i 2025 og 26. Samt det er nye bestillinger hver uke. Det kan virke som toppen er nådd i product.

Crude Ser derimot bedre ut, men også i Suezmax bestilles det skip hver uke nå. Den klassiske "rederfellen" inntreffer