Finally:

Brent stable – EIA Supply figures due today
• Brent oil trades around USD 87.4/bbl, flattish since Oslo close yesterday
• The EIA will publish the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) later today, including the February crude supply figures which are expected to show recovery following the January winter freeze
• Also several reports due this week from US producers (e.g. FANG, DVN, EOG) and we look for changes in the production outlook given last quarter. Last quarter, we saw roughly 3% growth implied by the company guidances and the IEA estimate for US supply growth this year has come down to that level since
BWE & PEN: Dussafu back on track (!) & Clever financing
• BW Energy and Panoro Energy reported Q1 Dussafu production of 24,840 bbl/day gross. This is up from ~22,000 bbl/day indicated on the Q4 conf. call with Q2 to date averaging 29,800 bbl/day as Hibiscus South was put on stream in March
• In sum, better than feared given the uncertainty around the ESPs issues, which now seems to be under control although work remains on some of the wells
• Nonetheless, the partners seem to be turning the corner after a long difficult period and we now expect plateau production of 40,000 bbl/day to be within reach this summer. Furthermore, a sale-leaseback agreement with Minsheng for the MaBoMo production facility of USD 150m is secured at attractive terms (our guesstimate is 8-9% interest cost post-tax vs 15% WACC applied in our NAVs)
• This is expected to free up USD 110m to BWE and USD 26m to Panoro. At Brent USD 80/bbl, we estimate that BWE/PEN trades at P/NAV 0.5-0.6x implying substantial room for a repricing.
• See link to full comment this morning here
AEC – A positive step for the developments offshore South Africa
• The South Africa government has passed the long awaited Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Bill, which likely will be signed into law shortly
• This is a positive step for the industry and prospects of TotalEnergies moving forward with the development of the vast discovered resources at Block 11B/12B
• Africa Energy holds a 10% WI in the asset, which has potential to add much needed gas to help reduce the country’s power shortage
• The next main milestone is likely securing a gas sales agreement, for which the timing is difficult to predict. Nonetheless, positive to see the passing of the bill

Very good summary of the situation - based on conversations with the Africa Energy management, analysts and South Africa insiders.

https://fitinvestmentideas.com/2024/07/08/africa-energy-talks-with-insiders-what-is-next/