Ser på poten daily at aframaxratene har begynt å bevege seg oppover 😀

På høy tid antagelig for å forsvare prematur kursoppgang. US indeksene endte kanskje litt overraskende i flatt og FRO med dem. Det gir 2% høyere enn oslokurs.

Ganske vanlig av FRO å vise til rapportering siste dag mulig i financial calender, men å varsle faktisk ca 1 uke tidligere. Bør ikke tyde noe i det. Tror allikevel resultatet blir bra.

Nyere versjon av LR2. Jeg var nyskjerrig selv, så slo opp type skip ho Veritas GL :

Jeg var nok litt out datet på LR2 ( moderne skip, kall det LR3 ) har bedre evner
enn jeg visste.

New tanker generation calls for new rules
A new class notation from DNV GL helps operators of LR2 tankers highlight their ships’ ability to switch between low and high-grade cargoes without risking contamination.

23 September, 2019

Amid intense competition in the tanker market, ship size and cargo flexibility are key differentiators. As a result, there is a trend among operators to prefer LR2-type tankers which, in contrast to the equally sized Aframax crude oil tankers, have coated tanks. This allows them to carry both “dirty” cargo, such as crude oil or heavy fuel oil, and “clean” cargoes, i.e. petrol (gasoline) or other clean petroleum products.

Typically, cargo owners require carriage of an intermediate cargo, such as diesel oil, for three voyages after carrying crude oil or dirty products before clean products such as petrol can be transported. The intermediate cargo gradually cleans the tanks, pumps and piping for the subsequent clean oil product.

A crucial task: Tank cleaning
An alternative to intermediate cargoes would be to design a ship to enable switching between dirty and clean cargoes on a ballast voyage. This will however require thorough cleaning to remove traces of previous cargo from internal tank surfaces, cargo piping and cargo pumps and avoid contaminating the next product. Tank cleaning is performed by deck-mounted tank-washing machines.

The tanks are washed with seawater during a ballast trip and possibly rinsed with freshwater to remove the salt residue. There are certain designated areas where the washing water cannot be discharged. The discharge must be monitored using oil discharge monitoring equipment (ODME) so the permissible maximum oil content is not exceeded. When the ship arrives at the next loading port, the tanks will be completely clean.

In addition to the arrangement of the tank-cleaning machines, the structural arrangement of the tanks as well as the cargo pump and piping arrangement are important factors to improve tank-cleaning efficiency. A ship’s ability to perform this cleaning routine effectively is key to its competitiveness, since cargo owners insist on shipowners demonstrating their vessels’ ability to minimize cargo contamination.

LR2 (Long-range 2) type tankers, which typically have a 115,000-tonne deadweight (dwt), are more flexible than Aframax vessels and can offer significant advantages in terms of size and profitability. This has prompted DNV GL to develop the new class notation Improved Tank Cleaning (ITC) that is geared exactly towards this ship type, says Olav Tveit, Vice President and Ship Type Expert at DNV GL – Maritime. The new rules quantify the tank-cleaning capability so owners of adequately designed and equipped ships can prove to cargo owners that their LR2 vessels are capable of achieving the required tank cleanliness and cleaning efficiency for the carriage of clean cargoes.

Structural considerations
“Most conventional crude oil tankers in the 115,000 dwt range are fitted with horizontal structural elements, such as stringers, as well as vertical deck girders, web frames and large brackets,” says Tveit. “Their horizontal surfaces increase the area where sludge from crude or heavy fuel oil can accumulate, and vertical structures create shadow areas which the tank-cleaning machines cannot reach.”

The ITC class notation for tank cleaning and cargo operations encourages the use of an alternative structural arrangement where corrugated tank walls replace horizontal stringers and brackets, and deep-well pumps are installed in each tank. “While corrugated bulkheads are more expensive, they are much easier to clean because residue will have no horizontal surfaces to settle on,” says Tveit. “Horizontal corrugations have slanted surfaces that cause the cargo and sludge to run off. Furthermore, corrugated, coated tanks offer no obstructions to the tank-washing machines, so they can be cleaned much more easily than conventional ones. This means they can satisfy high cleanliness standards.”

Scanjet products - DNV GL
Scanjet’s dual-nozzle automated tank-cleaning machine can be used for fixed installation on down pipe or for portable tank cleaning on a flexible hose.
Cargo pumps and piping
“In addition, a traditional tanker is usually equipped with one common pump room with three interconnected pumps for all tanks. These systems involve long cargo lines with large diameters and several interconnections within the pump room, on deck and at the cargo tank bottoms. This complicates stripping of the last remaining cargo from cargo tanks and cargo piping and complicates flushing and cleaning cargo pipes.”

“Using deep-well pumps in each cargo tank instead of a pump room allows shipowners to better strip the cargo tanks and piping from cargo residue and also simplifies the cleaning of the tanks and piping,” says Tveit. “The reason is that all cargo piping is located on deck. In addition, the use of deep-well pumps also enables better segregation when different cargoes are carried on board. Lastly, not having a cargo pump room means that more volume can be allocated for cargo. If owners are willing to make the necessary investments required for the ITC class notation, their vessels will be in a better position than a traditional ship to switch between cargoes rapidly, depending on the qualifiers they choose.”

Three qualifiers
The ITC class notation specifies that tanks must be fully coated and that the coating must be compatible with any cargo the ship is intended to carry. The cargo tank piping must either be coated or made from stainless steel. There are additional requirements regarding the materials for the heating coils and the tank-washing and pumping systems. In addition, a dedicated oil residue tank must be provided on board. All these specifications are based on DNV GL’s experience in the field, Tveit stresses.

The ITC notation has three mandatory qualifiers. The first qualifier specifies the coverage of the tank-washing machine: 80 per cent of the total cargo tank surfaces must be covered as a minimum. Exceeding this minimum requirement and indicating the actual coverage with the ITC notation will be a competitive advantage, says Tveit. The coverage implies that the tank-washing machines must have a certified throw length. “This means that DNV GL does not consider it sufficient for the water jets from the washing system to simply reach the tank walls at that distance. DNV GL also requires a minimum impact force that translates to a certain cleaning effect of the water jet.”

The second qualifier addresses stripping efficiency, which is indicated by the permissible amount of cargo residue left in a cargo tank and the piping after discharging. The draft version of the new rules proposes a maximum of three cubic metres or 3,000 litres. Ships achieving a lower amount of residue will be at an advantage. Individual deep-well pumps will achieve much better stripping efficiency than a pump room system, stresses Tveit, with values potentially ranging as low as 0.1 cubic metres or 100 litres.

The third qualifier is the combined total area of upward-facing horizontal structures inside a cargo tank, excluding tank bottom and deck, in square metres. The background for this qualifier is that horizontal surfaces represent a potential for the accumulation of sludge and cargo residue. The qualifier indicates the total horizontal surface area per cargo tank on board. A ship with corrugated bulkheads will feature very small surface areas and again be at a significant competitive advantage.

“The ITC class notation will provide owners with a clear competitive advantage by demonstrating that quick and efficient tank cleaning is ensured, so clean and dirty products can be carried interchangeably without risking contamination,” explains Tveit.

This new class notation is primarily intended for new ships since some criteria, including stripping efficiency, are subject to specific test requirements. Nevertheless, it may be granted to existing vessels as well, provided they meet the criteria. The new ITC rules have been published in July 2019, with an effective date of 1 January 2020, says Tveit. “As with all rules, we will gather feedback and experience over time, and fine-tune the requirements where it makes sense,” he adds.

Er noen bilder på linken : https://www.dnv.com/expert-story/maritime-impact/New-tanker-generation-calls-for-new-rules.html

Rene Chemical / Product tankers

MR Medium range, mindre avstander, men har flere tanker, derav kan seile
med langt flere raffinerte produkter samtidig. Krever mer rensing av tanker,
ikke minst pumper og rør.

Kan ikke seile med dirty crude ( tungolje ).

"LR2 (Long-range 2) type tankers, which typically have a 115,000-tonne deadweight (dwt), are more flexible than Aframax vessels and can offer significant advantages in terms of size and profitability."

Så når FRO lister alle sine "Aframax" som LR2/Aframax må vi anta at alle disse lar seg konvertere til å frakte fra crude til clean, om enn til ulik kostnad avhengig av standarden?
https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fleetlist/lr2/

Vi skjønner vel at denne fleksibiliteten er viktig rent økonomisk.
Tar vi utgangspunkt i fredagens Poten Daily for det det er verdt:
Aframax, 70 CAR-USG 16,900 53,500 (2023 snitt)
LR2,75 AG-FE 29,100 37,600 (2023 snitt)

Skjønner ikke helt hvorfor det er så stort sprik i årsbeste her tilsynelatende til fordel for Aframax (=crude) på skip som er "like". Men avstanden fra dagens rate til årsbeste er uansett betydelig større for Aframax/crude som da må sies å lagge betydelig nå?

Videre kan man da anta at FRO gjør det de kan for å konvertere til clean for denne delen av flåten nå?
Kanskje vi får høre om det ved Q2 neste uke?

Ser også at ingen av deres LR2/Aframax er eldre enn 7 år. Men kun de 4 nyeste fra 2021 har scrubber.

LR2 slipper ballast for å trade begge veier ( X trades ) dirty / clean gjetter jeg

Panamax and Aframax Tankers: Oil Tankers with a Difference
The following elaboration will be beneficial when it comes to understanding more about the panamax tankers and the aframax tankers:

Panamax Tankers: The panamax tankers operate in the region of Panama, especially the Panama Canal. The tanker size is designed as per the size regulations set by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). The size aspect is very important when it comes to panamax tankers because if the size is not monitored while the tanker is being constructed, then it could pose a lot of problems while the ship is in motion. The operation of the first panamax tanker started in the year 1914 and they are still popular and useful as they were nine decades ago.

Keeping in mind that the entrance and exit points of the Panama Canal are not as wide, the regulations and stipulations about the size of the panamax tankers are very strictly maintained. The panamax tankers measure around 950 foot lengthwise, 106 foot width wise and 39.5 foot depth wise.

However, the most important part about the panamax tankers that requires a lot of strictness is the dimension of the Panama Canal’s lock chambers. It is this part of the Canal that plays a very strategic role in the tankers’ entering and exiting the Panama Canal. The measurement of the lock chambers of the Panama Canal is somewhere around 1050 feet long x 110 feet wide x 85 feet depth wise.
The New Panamax Project

The limitation caused to the traffic mobility because of the above specified measurement led to the creation of something known as the New Panamax. The New Panamax project was initiated in the year 2006 and calls for the expansion of the constrained lock chambers of the Panama Canal. The stipulated size measurements for the New Panamax are around 1400 feet length wise x 180 feet width wise x 60 feet draft wise. This proposed alteration to the lock chamber facility has been very strongly approved in the business community that mainly caters in the Panama Canal area and is something that can bring positive results to the problem of naval traffic in the days to come.
Aframax Tankers: The name Aframax comes from the Average Freight Rate Assessment (AFRA) system. The aframax tankers were initiated because of the size constraints that were posed when large oil tankers entered sea-routes highly prone to traffic.

The aframax tankers weigh generally around or less than 120,000 DWT (Dead Weight Tonnes).( Oprinnelig 80.000 tdw for tax reasons )This size again, is a very strict stipulation. The aframax tankers generally ply in the European waters of the Black Sea. In addition these tankers are also found as cargo containers in the sea-routes of the Caribbean Sea, North Sea and the one of the most important and busiest route of the Mediterranean Sea.

It has to be noted that from amongst the major oil exporting nations in the world, it is the countries who export oil on a comparatively lesser level than the Middle-Eastern countries that rely on the aframax tankers. This is because the level of oil exported from the Middle-Eastern is quite high and they make use of larger naval vessels to cargo oil. Also, because of the usage of such heavy vessels, the sea-routes tend to get blocked
and tankers like the aframax tankers end up proving to be a great asset.

The panamax tankers and the aframax tankers are a feasible solution to the ever growing problem of traffic in sea-routes. By coming up with such easy-to-adopt solutions, it has been proved beyond doubt that through proper adaptations of engineering science and technology, every problem can be solved and resolved permanently.

Jeg mener å huske at Aframax og kapasitet ble desinged pga. U.S. skatte regler, 80.000 tdw
men lenge iden jeg var aktiv megler, så ta det med en klype salt.

NYSE igår 190,58 0,2% ned. Selges med litt "rabatt" idag da. Tror på litt mer!

Ship Recycling Market Looking For Solid Footing.
The ship recycling market is still looking for a solid trend, as it remains in flux. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Clarkson Platou Hellas said that “at present, there seems to be too many obstacles to give any comfort to ship recyclers and help in their analysis of positive sentiment. The seasonal monsoon season that is still causing havoc in the Sub. Continent, continued financial restrictions affecting the domestic Letter of Credit payment structures, weakening steel markets, and now visibly more tonnage being circulated, particularly from the Far Eastern Owners, are all creating a messy conundrum for ship recyclers without few offers being tabled for the available tonnage. This in turn is ensuring some of the cash buyers to question how much lower rates will fall. For example, 10 days ago, a small container vessel was attracting region USD 625/ldt, five days later the sale failed, and a resale was down to region USD 600/ldt, this week we have seen a similar unit being concluded for region USD 564/ldt basis delivery to India.

According to the shipbroker, “reports suggest that in fact, cash buyers are now reselling some of their dry bulk inventories for lower than the USD 500/ldt level, a key marker. Bangladesh is practically on hold for now with the L/C restrictions biting hard and causing local recyclers to refrain from offering which, in turn, is creating problems for those cash buyers with tonnage in hand unable to resell to Bangladesh and having to divert tonnage to their counterparts in India and even Pakistan. The latter, Pakistan, has shown some signs of rejuvenating, as financing becomes, slowly, more available, however the signs are that only the smaller units will be workable for the time being. One further piece of news to emanate from Bangladesh this week is that the ‘Bangladesh Ship Breakers and Recyclers Association’ circulated an announcement that a Committee had reached an agreement that as from 31st August, 2023, the Seller of any vessel arriving for recycling in Bangladesh must provide an IHM (Inventory of Hazardous Materials) as their part of responsibility, this provision of which, to be incorporated in the Memorandum of Agreement and a copy of the IHM must be submitted along with the Notice of Readiness. What impact this will have on the Owners thinking towards Bangladesh remains to be seen”, Clarkson Platou Hellas concluded.

Meanwhile, in a separate report GMS, the world’s leading cash buyer of ships, said this week that “the lethargy in sub continent recycling markets continues for another week as owners and cash buyers comtinue to offload tonnage at spiralling prices, chasing down rates seemingly by the day. Indeed we have seen prices decline from over USD 600/LT LDT earlier this year, to seeing several standard (albeit poor condition) dry bulk sales below USD 500/LDT recently. So a fall of over USD 100/LDT has been realized in recycling markets since the start of the summer and the age old problems persist of strained LCs and lack of financing, meaning there appear to be more vessels than capable end buyers at present – certainly in the more challenging markets of Pakistan and Bangladesh.

India remains a constant market, in terms of end buyers capable of opening LCs, yet prices are once again positioned at the bottom of the pile in the sub continent, with most end users fearful of committing on fresh tonnage such has been the extent and ferocity of recent price falls. The supply of tonnage – particularly from Far East and China markets – has remained a constant over these summer months (when it is usually quieter), and those cash buyers who have bougbht ‘as is’ tonnage without back to back end users in place have been hardest hit with tumbling levels and a stockpile of seemingly unsellable tonnage. There is hope however that once monsoon season ends and product starts to shift from yards and mills reopen, that we may see a greater demand at least to acquire once again”, GMS concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide.

Muligens gammel info; men ville gjøre oppmerksom på at Aframax ble designed for tax re region, based on 80..0000 tdw. a long time back ..........

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ship-recycling-market-looking-for-solid-footing/

Morgan vil visst helst ha EURN nå. Nøytral på FRO?
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1693884556141592828

NYSE premarket følger OSE ned. Ligget nesten stille siste 5 dager etter det fine løftet siste måned.
Er det kraft nok til videre brudd opp, eller sliter den med å finne nok styrke ennå?
Er det da duket for en stasjon tilbake?
Men OET sliter kanskje mer med retningen. +-60 i snart 3 uker.
Vi må nok få noen fetere rater snart. Ikke bare utsikter til fetere rater?

Fro går sidelenga i påvente av rapporten som kommer tror jeg. Solgte meg ut i dag da jeg tror rapporten sender fro ned, men der kan jeg ta skammelig feil.

Rett opp i USA, tett på nok 193 nå

Joda, rett opp og rett ned igjen, men kvelden er enda ung så vi får vente å se til kl 22 ihvertfall før det feires .

Fortsetter sidelengs ja. Et ok Q2 er sannsynligvis priset inn nå. Så spørs det hvor mye FOMO-kraft det er i guiding uten at ratene manifesteres snart?
LR2 viser bedring. Og Suez henter seg inn noe fra lave nivåer, men er fortsatt lang under årssnittet ifølge Poten.
VLCC bør vel også vise reelle løft før slottet kan bygges høyere? Hvis ikke er faren for en "tradisjonell" shippingsmell stadig mer overhengende? :-)

Ja, den svinger men med Usd 10,63 tilsvarer kurs 18,04 ca nok 191,8. Høy dollar blir fett når utbytte kommer. Jeg tør aldri gå ut og inn av Fro, vet aldri når den hopper eller faller. Langsiktige kursmål eneste som duger for meg

Ja kommer det ikke en positiv rapport om 2 dager tenker jeg denne skyter fart den gale veien. Jeg hoppa inn i equinor så lenge og kjøper meg inn igjen i fro når vi vet svaret på rapporten.

Solgte meg ut av samme grunn en uke siden men må innrømme at jeg tok en rask tur innom idag og klarte 1% så happy med det. FRO har gått mye på andres meritter den siste tiden så jeg er veldig usikker om den kommer at stige mer på torsdag? 23% av vanlig volym på NYSE nu....hmmm. Vi må ikke glemme at September er runt hjørnet.

When in September do not remember... Var det slik? :-)
September ifjor var jo riktig "artig". Inn til slutten og begynnelsen av oktober. Huttetu. Det er så man glemmer hvilken sektor dette er... :-)

Akkurat dette er jeg redd vi får en reprise av nå. Fro nyse -0,44 i skrivende stund,

Men det er gjerne blitt uvanlig stort fokus fra finansmiljøene på denne "supersyklusen" nå. Det kan virke hemmende på de som tradisjonelt opererer og kontrollerrer shippingkursene? 🤔
Med min begrensede forståelse vil jeg si at det har pågått en stund nå og fører til en neste søvndyssende stillstand... 😱😀

Haussingen om "supersyklus" har pågått i alle fall siden høsten -22 uten at vi har sett så mye av det.

Er det tegn på metning i cleansegmentet også nå? Torm faller av et par prosent. Står det seg ut så skal gjerne peer Hafnia kuperes en smule imorgen?
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/trmd

Ibyx,

Enig, denne haussinga av tank super syklus vil jeg si startet sent 2020. Det har vært noen glimt oppunder $100k, men ikke lenge.

Vi får håpe til vinteren / neste år skjer det. Spørsmålet er hvor lenge, blir det 3-4måneder i vintersesongen, eller ?

Hugs på de 4 dyreste ord i finans verden er: "This time is different"

MERK schedule vessels for ''delivery into 2027''

Summer Lull Not Enough to Slow Down Newbuilding Orders
in Hellenic Shipping News 23/08/2023

Newbuilding ordering activity has remained high, despite the usual summer slowdown. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “over the past two weeks the pace of new order contracting has remained fairly high, with a decent number of tanker and container/general cargo orders stacking up. Newbuilding prices remain elevated as yards continue to fill their slots and schedule vessels for delivery into 2027 – there is no great need for prices to come down yet. Across all sectors these recent orders demonstrate the growing investment in owners readying themselves for the shift away from conventional marine fuels. Euronav’s latest order follows a pattern established over the previous few years as the company aims to avoid having bet on the wrong future fuel source. Over the past few years they have ordered Suezmax/VLCC vessels with the ability to run on LNG while being suitable for a methanol or ammonia retrofit at a later date. With similar flexibility, MSC have place an order for around $1.3bn for 10 LNG DF container vessels which are also suitable for ammonia/methanol conversion”.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/summer-lull-not-enough-to-slow-down-newbuilding-orders/

5. 2023-01-26 2023-02-28 1.56 130.54 192.22 Magnetar Financial Llc -215.52M
Dette var jo "artig". Inndekkingskurs 192.22 indikerer at det må ha skjedd siste uke? Jeg er 99% sikker på at denne shortopplysningen har "hengt ved" til for kort tid siden. Har dessverre ikke skjermdump, men det burde jo ikke være nødvendig!
Så hvorfor opplyser FT om dette som om det har skjedd 1.mars?
https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/CY0200352116

Det har jo en *viss* betydning for oss "amatører" å vite om det er en aktiv short av en anselig størrelse eller ei!

Klinker ned 5% på NYSE. Ingen bombe selvsagt. Da er det det bare å følge med på volumet... :-)

Gevinstsikingen driver dagsvolumet opp mot gjennomsnittet! Ikke langt fra target1: 179. :-)

49! Men hvor er meningsinnholdet ditt? :-)
Ok den er litt tynn, men peer EURN er rosa nå. kanskje får ikke ibyx sin 179! :-)

Hvordan skulle det gå dersom folk ikke meldte noe her? Reklameinntekter osv..
Greit. De færreste treffer hver gang. Og noen treffer aldri. :-)

Over 186 nå, hva med 189?

Va tyst det blev her nu, as we see 17,84 or 189,10. skal vi ned igjen eller?

Oslo vet at rapporten blir en "skuffelse". På Nyse har man fortsatt store forventninger tror jeg.

Ja, du har peiling Oktan….

Herlige London!! Slo nesten Q422 resultatet. Flott utbytte også. Knuste forventningene til analytikerne igjen. Mangler bare en snarlig stigning i ratene nå så blir denne høsten enorm 👍👍😊

Hei Folkens ,,har Dere link til utbytte datoen? Vennlig hilsen Stian Damholt

her er linken:
https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/597803

0,8=8,5NOK
Skal gjerne ned såpass innen ex utbytte?
Det var disse ratene og disse Q4 forventningene da... :-)

Det må vel være trist for deg å registrere at Frontline leverte et knall resultat siden du solgte deg ut på tirsdag!
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