Tusen takk

I flg. noen her på forumet er det bare å selge seg ut fort som råd. Jeg var nok veldig dum som kjøpte meg kraftig opp for noen dager siden. Trodde John visste hva han drev med, og jeg håper jo på en plass ved bordet Kharg! Nå er det bare å sitte og vente på mer utbytte!

Jøss! Skikkelig gevinstsikring NYSE. Ned nesten 7 kroner fra OSE slutt nettopp.

Jøss 2.
Jeffries med HOLD TP USD17

Jøss 1&2 henger da gjerne litt sammen? :-)

https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1694764156061143539

To nye kursmål i dag:
Fearnley: 250 NOK
Kepler Cheuvreux: 290 NOK

Oppside ja!!!

Men Jefferies da? 17USD! Ca 182 NOK altså..
De trigget ihvertfall gevinstsikringen igår på NYSE.
Er redd det var veldig prematurt ja! :-)
Nesten som et "svar" på FOMO stemningen på OSE igår! :-)

Men Fearnley og Kepler skal vel gjerne "utligne" Jefferies "arbeid" fra igår!
US liker jo både høynede kursmål og ikke minst gode utbytter sies det? :-)
🚀🐑🐑🐑

Her blir det vel bare å supplere i en startbunn eller to på NYSE idag, før de får "summet seg" til videre oppgang? :-)

Kanskje Fed sender markedet litt ned kl 16.05… og det kommer en finere inngang, trenger å fylle på men usikker..

ABG 317 (302)

VLCC Market: More Flows Towards Europe From the Middle East
Wth the US market not able to fully service the European continent, more crude oil VLCC cargoes have started flowing out of the Middle East market. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson said that “in recent years we have seen a remarkable increase in VLCC flows out of the US Gulf (USG) as overall US crude production increased thanks to the shale revolution. Traditionally, most US crude cargoes are loaded on Aframax and Suezmax vessels but increasingly, these flows are being sized up onto larger VLCCs. However, an important issue with the USG VLCC market is the limited options to load a full cargo of 2 million barrels at terminal. This requires the use of lighterage operations, typically with multiple Aframaxes to bring the VLCC up to a full cargo quantity. As of writing, the only facility able to facilitate a full cargo is the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP). Several new facilities have been proposed over recent years, although these have all faced various delays. If US VLCC loadings are to continue growing, it will be important to get these projectsoperational over the coming years. With that in mind, what is the current outlook for USG VLCC terminal projects?”
According to Gibson, “in the very near term, The Corpus Christi Channel Improvement Project should be due for completion by Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. This aims to deepen and widen the channel at Ingleside to accommodate vessels with a larger laden draft which means an additional 15% more cargo can be loaded onto a VLCC upon completion. This means lighterage will still be required to bring the cargo to full size. Meanwhile, the BlueWater Texas project is awaiting MARAD license approval to proceed. At present, it is unclear what the potential time frame for such approval is, but it is unlikely to occur in 2023”.

The shipbroker added that “perhaps the project at the most advanced stage in the process is the Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT), 30 nautical miles off Freeport, Texas in relatively deep water, which is currently penciled in for a startup in 2026-2027. It has received a Record of Decision (ROD) from MARAD and outlines the final step before receiving a full license prior to construction. Terminal capacity is intended to be 85,000 barrels per hour which results in a full cargo in approximately 26 hours, but it may take a commissioning period to reach full operational capacity. Also offshore, the 1.1 mbd Texas Gulflink project could be operational from 2026 but is facing some local opposition. Finally, the 1.9 mbd Blue Marlin project is expected to receive regulatory approval in Q2 2024 to begin construction. All in all, considerable work is still required to bring these projects to reality”Gibson also noted that “so far this year, there has been a notable increase in VLCC volumes out of the USG. As of writing, a record 2.25 mbd has been shipped in 2023 versus 1.535 mbd in 2022. This comes as the IEA is forecasting rising Atlantic crude output, driven by growth in Americas production, in which the US is expected to add an additional 2.6 mbd of additional barrels by 2028.

This is expected to contribute to a growing West to East trade over the medium term, where VLCCs will be the logical preference for many shippers in Asia. Meanwhile, in the shorter term we have seen a ramp up in VLCC crude shipments from the USG to Europe, with VLCCs already dominating for shipments into Netherlands and France. For the US to increase its export potential further, these projects will need to come online and reach full operational capacity in this time frame. The current speed of these developments could start to raise some questions should sufficient progress not be made in the coming years”, the shipbroker concluded.

Det ble NYSE rekyl som fryktet ja. Ikke mye billigsalg foreløpig..
18,56 nå. Minner om 19,29 som årsbeste der. Ikke utbyttejustert selvsagt.

Utbytte seiret til slutt.. ?
NYSE +2,17%

Fin start over 200 idag!
Tenker den skal gires ned på OSE sedvanlige "10.30" dipp. Kan vurdere å kjøpe da. 198?
Og så videre opp igjen! :-)

På vei inn igjen?

Vært både inne og ute... :-)
Men idag er det først og fremst OET og Hafnia sin dag!
10:30 dippen kommer kanskje litt senere?
Er det ikke litt vel mye "shippingodsnakk" her nå? 🤔 :-)

Ok. NYSE ligger fortsatt nesten 1USD under årsbeste da. men det er gjerne uten at utbytter er trukket ifra! :-)

Ja, synes det er vel litt mye godsnakking & FOMO.

Ratene er laveste de har vært iår, ca 20k per dag for VLCC og Suez enda lavere.

Tror det kan bli et backlash i Sept. engang. Vi får se -

Tja. Men den "Daglige Poten" vet vi jo nå er litt "fake" når det gjelder FRO og enda mer OET. Men. På et tidspunkt må også Poten oppover (som tidligere) for å forsvare "svevet"! :-)

Ifølge Oslo børs er 52week high som det heter der på norsk 205,50 NOK (200 idag)
For OET 275,50 NOK (272) og
Hafnia 63,95NOK (68)
Slik sett er OET tettest på ATH
Nei forresten. FRO har jo hatt svimlende kursnivåer tidligere. Må jo ha vært en seriøst splitt eller noe der i urtiden.

Suezmax slutninger for Q3:

NAT: 57% - 34800 USD/day
FRO: 67% - 48800 USD/day
EURN: 50% - 49500 USD/day
INSW: 52% - 45900 USD/day
TNK: 48% - 57.600 USD/day

Meget sterkt! Her blir det stor inntjening.

7 nye kursmål på Hafnia i dag, alle med "Kjøp" anbefaling - konsensus 92 NOK.

Dippen ble forsinka til Nyse åpnet, ble en rask 12 minutters tur innom...kan vurdere å gå long etter vi har passert ex-dagen og FRO har blitt billigere.

Ai ai gutter og jenter! Dette kan jo bli interessant.. Nede i 18USD (-2,15% nå, +0,94% her idag) Kanskje kjøp 9,03 imorgen er gunstig dersom dette holder kvelden ut? :-)
Med TRMD som Hafina peer ned nesten 1% kan Hafnia (+4,88%) også bli interessant igjen imorgen? Ja OET (+4,65%) også selvsagt!
Kan bli vanskelig å velge! :-)

Hva mener du med kjøp 9,03?

Vel. Ofte så ligger det noen kjøpsordre til overs fra dagen før som ikke har "fått med seg" at kursen "over there "har falt... eller at det har kommet en melding som normalt vil sende kursen "hit eller dit" altså opp eller ned i forhold til sluttkurs dagen før.
Derfor faller kursen veldig raskt like etter! Og kan dermed bli "gode kjøp".. Dette kan også utnyttes selvsagt ved at kursen åpner "rett ned" for så å snu "rett opp" minutter etterpå... (fx 9.03..)
I enkelte aksjer mer enn andre, kanskje særlig de litt mindre likvide, så r dette nesten "strukturelt" og inngår i dagens kurssyklus... Fx. opp-ned-opp eller ned -opp-ned...
Tenker den "satt"? :-)

PS. Dersom Hafnia og OET ikke "gruses" tungt (faller mer enn ca 3%) ved åpning så tenker jeg FRO er en grei kjøpskandidat på NYSE ekvivalent kurs. Altså ca. 194/195 og selvsagt lavere!
:-)

Meget sterk oppgang i Asia. Ser utrolig bra ut nå fremover.

https://www.finansavisen.no/finans/2023/08/29/8032166/asia-rally?internal_source=sistenytt

Nye 5 % opp i dag vil ikke forundre noen.

Seeking Alpha

Frontline plc: Big Question Is How Winter Will Play Out This Year
Aug. 28, 2023 5:04 AM ETFrontline plc (FRO)STNG, TNK4 Comments
Fun Trading profile picture
Fun Trading
Investing Group Leader
Summary

Frontline plc reported its second quarter 2023 results, with a net income of $230.67 million and total operating revenues of $512.763 million.
The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.80 per share, an increase of 14% from the previous quarter.
FRO stock performance has been strong, up 56% on a one-year basis.
I recommend taking a partial profit (40-50%) between $18.30 and $18.85 with a possible next resistance at $19.
Aerial view of tanker ship carrying oil or gas at sea.
bfk92

Introduction

Cyprus-based Frontline plc (NYSE:FRO) reported its second quarter 2023 results on August 24, 2023.

Important note: This new article updates my June 2, 2023 article. I have been following FRO on Seeking Alpha since 2015.

The Company indicated that as of June 30, 2023, its fleet consisted of 66vessels with an aggregate capacity of approximately 12.7 million DWT:

65 vessels owned by the Company (22 VLCCs, 25 Suezmax tankers, 18 LR2/Aframax tankers)
And one Aframax tanker that is under the Company's commercial management.
In the press release, Frontline indicated that 65% of the fleet would have scrubbers installed in 2023:

As of June 30, 2023, the Company's owned fleet included 42 scrubber fitted vessels (20 VLCCs, 18 Suezmax tankers and four LR2/Aframax tankers), which represents 65% of our owned fleet.

Finally, as of June 30, 2023, there are no remaining vessels in the Company's new building program and no remaining commitments.

1 - 2Q23 Results Snapshot

Frontline reported a net income of $230.67 million, or $1.04 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2023, compared to $51.28 million, or $0.25 per share, in 2Q22. The adjusted net income was $210 million, or $0.94 per diluted share.

Furthermore, Frontline reported total operating revenues of $512.763 million for the second quarter of 2023. However, total operating revenues and others were $522.154 million.

Finally, Frontline declared a quarterly dividend of $0.80 per share in 2Q23, an increase of 14% QoQ.

Quarterly Operation highlights:
We estimate industry-leading cash breakeven rates of $22,700 fleet average, including drydock cost for 8 Suezmax tankers in 2023, 4 in the third quarter and 4 in the fourth quarter. (conference call)

More on Link

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4631455-frontline-plc-big-question-how-winter-play-out

"Det er aldri feil å ta gevinst" som det heter! :-)
Men la oss se litt på det med et annet blikk.
Siden OET ble notert har den gått 545%
Hafnia gått 432% og FRO 341% i samme tidsrom.

Tja. Grønn LR2 idag er vel bra for FRO og Hafnia?
https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1696784443468374346

Gårsdagens NYSE sluttkurs stiger til 196,58NOK

Skal inn igjen før Record Date 15 september så får vi se om dumt eller bra.

Har lært meg, tror jeg, at man ikke skal være for grisk.

Behøver ikke treffe hverken bunn eller top, bare man holder seg innenfor bølgene.

Alt vedr. akjser er jo et sjansespill, det er volatilt, en trakk beslutnigen at FRO syntes
ikke å bryte 200 nå, på kort sikt.

Blir jo ganske attraktiv nå? Korrigert 10 kroner fra toppen på mandag. Må ikke bli for grisk nei. Men hvem vet, kanskje blir 183 igjen?
Får holde et øye med "peers" også. Det skal oftest "rette seg opp" vs dem! :-)

"Verdidiskrepans?" Hafnia +1,5% LR2 opp eller ned? :-)

Hoppet på idag men for tidlig. Tja, får vel sitte long da!

Complications Still Hampering the Indian sub-continent Ship Recycling Markets

The ship recycling market is still facing complications. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Clarkson Platou Hellas said that “as India celebrates the ‘Chandrayaan-3’ mission to the Moon, making space history being the first nation to land at the Moon’s South Pole, no such celebrations are paramount from the Alang recycling yards with local market sentiment remaining cautious. There is currently no serious demand of the finished products from the domestic rolling mills, hence the weaker price levels on offer. As such, one small step from Pakistan is evident, but this is no giant leap. A number of recyclers are returning to the market with reports of a few vessels being committed to this destination once again. However, some remain sceptical as to how the process of delivery will occur and how long it will take for the Letters of Credit to be opened on arrival to the official anchorage – time will tell in the forthcoming weeks if there are lengthy delays due to this financial situation. But whilst this is not a giant leap, some optimism is apparent, hopeful that competition to their counterparts will once again be seen as the Gadani destination is certainly required once the expected flow of tonnage gathers momentum. We are certainly witnessing more dry bulk tonnage circulating into the market, clearly evidencing the pressure that the current freight rates are under. With Bangladesh again facing financial issues, it is hoped that Pakistan can receive tonnage without any delays or further financing issues to take the burden off the Indian recyclers”, the shipbroker said.

In a separate note, Allied said that “despite the long list of vessels below, the market remains somewhat lackluster across Indian and Bangladesh on account of weak local steel prices. The attached sales demonstrate the continuing trend for yards in Bangladesh to acquire the majority of smaller vessels. It is also worth noting that many of these sales have only just come to light having arrived at yards, so this list should be taken as an indication of activity over recent weeks. In the cases of the ‘Jitra Bhum’ and the ‘Kama Bhum’, spares will have supported the price despite being a sale on an ‘as is’ basis.

On a brighter note, the sale for the ‘Yong Ning’ and ‘Gloria 1’ make for a punchy return to the market for Pakistani breakers, being two of the highest LDT sales of recent weeks. Tonnagestarved yards will likely be looking to make more deals, now that the ice has been broken and the first couple of L/Cs have come together. The competition-beating prices should help owners looking to offload vessels get on board with this too”.

Meanwhile, GMS, the world’s leading cash buyer of ships said that “the ongoing complications experienced in the Indian sub-continent ship recycling markets have shown few signs of dissipating this week, with a sudden increase in the unrelenting non-existent supply of vessels and sparse L/C / financing approvals in Bangladesh and Pakistan, which has seen market pricing that is reaching new lows with each concurrent sale into the sub-continent destinations. Notwithstanding, despite being moderately placed in the market rankings, India remains a beacon of hope amidst a dire 2023 recycling landscape, especially as a number of impressive deals were concluded here this week, perhaps suggesting that better days may well lie ahead for this market.

It is also reaching a point where various Owners and Cash Buyers are choosing to hold on to their unsold tonnage, rather than committing their units at these unexpected new lows of today that are consistently below USD 500/LT LDT – so unexpected have been the level of falls from over USD 600/LT LDT seen earlier this year. As such, only after various Cash Buyers have disposed of their inventory and a period of calm and stability has been witnessed across the sub-continent markets, may we start to look upwards, especially after all these months of negativity. Particularly, once the constant rains come to a halt, may we see production restart and the backlog of material at the yards starts to shift again. On the far-end, Turkey remains quiet as ever, with virtually no movement reported over recent weeks. Overall, following the glut of dry bulk sales over the summer months, it has overall been an odd mix in the supply of vessels as container units have started to re-emerge once again, especially as rates across these two sectors struggle to post any significant profit above running costs. As such, if prices do begin to pick up from these current lows and financing / LC issues start to ease up in both Pakistan and Bangladesh, we may hopefully expect a busier fourth quarter, in addition to some more urgency / aggression to the present lethargy being witnessed”, GMS concluded.

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide


https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/complications-still-hampering-the-indian-sub-continent-ship-recycling-markets/

Da er den gevinstsikret ned nøyaktig 10 kroner fra siste topp på 201,30NOK. Det gikk unna på NYSE der på slutten!

PS. Legg likevel merke til hvor godt OET holder seg! Den steg litt mot slutten også og endte tett på pluss!
Kan fortsatt bli ny ATH der denne uka!

Ok! Hva tenker du årsaken er til at forventningene til framtidige rater har falt slik at FRO korrigerer 5% ned ganske raskt? :-)

Nettopp! Supersyklusen er forsinka? Blir ikke helt så super? Kina lagger? I alle fall er alt av Tank ner på Nyse minus 2-3% ikveld.

He he. Er gjerne litt "syklisk" retorikk også på gang! "Irans skyggeflåte" kanskje? Smak på den! Kina er jo litt "oppbrukt" nå. Og så er det vel om å gjøre å få mest ut av en *helt normal* sesongbunn som vi er ute av om 2-3-4 uker. Visstnok er ratene langt over snittet av normalen da. Så helt normalt er ikke *nivået*. (Så må vihuske p glemme å lese andre kilder enn "Den Daglige Potin!". Men likevel!
Skal vi gå for 179 kroner innen ex-utbytte? Sånn lett "FOMO-justert"? :-)

Jeg vet ikke det blir 179 før ex-utbytte(tviler sterkt), men jeg spår at du går tom for anførselstegn ei god stund før det...

Kan være lurt å kjøpe FRO mens psykologien fortsatt er negativ nå? Se på peers OET og særlig Hafnia som kjører i pluss på ex-dag begge to! :-)
Kanskje er 10:30 dippen litt tidlig idag? Hafnia snart +3%! Ikke glem LR2... :-)

High Newbuilding Prices Not a Deterrent Factor for Shipowners

High prices and low rates haven’t been able to deter owners from booking more newbuilding orders. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied said that “the market remains in a similar state to that seen over recent weeks, with a shift in contracting patterns perhaps more likely as the summer holiday period ends and everyone returns to business as usual. Prices remain high due to demand for high value vessels, inflation, and so on. In the case of bulkers in particular, this has driven something of a disconnect between NB prices and the current state of the market in terms of secondhand values and earnings and the pace of ordering has fallen off in comparison with the burst of activity seen in June. That being said, some owners are investing in bulk carriers with particularly interesting news concerning alternatively fuelled vessels. First of all, it has been reported that a Norwegian firm has entered a LOI for up to six hydrogen/ammonia ultramaxes. Further ultramax orders have come from Globus Maritime, who have contracted two units. Looking to the future, Eastern Pacific are rumoured to be close to spending $480m on 6 Newcastlemaxes, which would be the first to hit the water able to run on ammonia—not just be suitable for conversion with ‘ammoniaready’ certification”.

A price of high $ 37 mln was rumoured around. In the smaller geared tonnage, Polsteam ordered four handy lakers design of about 37,000dwt at Shanaiguan shipyard (DISC). Tanker NB orders were also registered; Qingdao Beihai received a major tanker NB contract and signed a one firm + one option VLCC of 319,000dwt from Euronav for delivery in September 2026 for the firm unit. Price reported at around $ 112 mln. Evalend Shipping confirmed two x 75,000dwt LR1 orders selecting Yangzijiang as builder. Price is reported around $ 50 mln and deliveries end q1 and end q2 2027. Maran Tankers added further business to his orderbook and optioned four Suezmax DF LNG at New Times bringing the total commitment to eight units, priced at around $ 87 mln each. The gas sector sees no end to his massive orderbook; Dalian signed a contract for two plus two 175,000 cbm with a chinese JV of three partners being Wah Kwong, China Gas and CSSC Leasing backing the deal. Deliveries are due in 2027 for the firm ships, no price reported”, the shipbroker said.


Meanwhile, in the S&P market, Allied added that “on the dry bulk side, SnP market resumed on a sluggish pace for yet another week, given the small number of units being reported as sold. At the same time, though, overall asset prices appear fairly resistant at this point, encouraged somehow by the recent modest upward push in spot rates across most of the core size segments. All-in-all, at the current freight market regime, further pressure in price ideas can support the view of a more liquid market in the near term. On the tanker side, SnP market took a modest step forward, given the improved activity levels as of the past week. However, it is hardly to argue what sort of trend can prevail in the upcoming period, especially at the current status quo in asset prices”.

In a separate note, Banchero Costa commented that there was increasing activity in the second hand market this week. “In the Capesize segment, Greek Owner Neda Maritime Agency is reported having sold the IANTHE 180,000 dwt 2009 Daewoo at $21 mln, after having sold the sistership ARIADNE at the same price. The Chinese built YUAN FU STAR 176,000 dwt 2011 Jiangsu Ronsheng is rumoured sold at $22 mln , while the one-year younger and scrubber-fitted sisterhip MOUNT APO 176,000 dwt 2012 Jiangsu Ronsheng has been bought by clients of P. Doehle for $24.7 mln. Very active the Supramax/Ultramax market, where Turkish Owner Densay is rumoured as the seller of the ecotype SSI FORMIDABLE 63,000 dwt 2017 Jinling at $27 mln. Chinese Dolphin 57 sisterships SKY GLOBE 57,000 dwt 2010 Taizhou Kouan and STAR GLOBE 57,000 dwt 2010 Taizhou Kouan are reported sold enbloc to undisclosed buyers, respectively at $11.2 mln and 10.7 mln. The Japanese built PYTHAGORAS 56,000 dwt 2012 Mitsui is rumoured sold to Greek buyers at $18.2 mln”, the shipbroker said.

t added that “during the course of last week there has been quite some activity in the tanker sector. Starting from the larger sector, the Suezmax NAMSEN 157,000 dwt 2016 New Times has been reported sold to Hayfin Capital Holdings for $67 mln; for reference, back in June, the two years younger ELANDRA OSPREY 157,000 dwt 2018 Hyndai Samho was sold for $75 mln. In the LR sector, the epoxy coated SEA SENOR 109,000 dwt 2006 Dalian exchanged owners for region $35.5 mln which indicates a strengthening in price considering the sale of sister EPANASTASEA 109,000 dwt 2008 Dalian at $37.5 mln, in early July. Moving on to MR tankers, the BRUNSWICK 46,000 dwt 2010 Shin Kurushima has been sold for $24 mln to undisclosed buyers; at the end of June, the Japanese built ANFA 47,000 dwt 2010 was reported sold at very close levels, $24,25 mln. While on the smaller sector, the STST WAWASAN BLUEFIN 20,000 dwt 2008 Shin Kurushima has been reported sold to undisclosed buyers for $18.5 mln”, Banchero Costa concluded.

Grafer på linken

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/high-newbuilding-prices-not-a-deterrent-factor-for-shipowners/

No "shortcutting edge"...
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/aframax-tankers-fail-to-cut-voyage-time-on-northern-sea-route-to-china/2-1-1509257

Gårsdagens tall viser at de amerikanske råoljelagrene falt med 10,6 millioner fat til 422,9 millioner fat i forrige uke. Ifølge TDN Direkt var det ventet en nedgang på 3,3 millioner fat.

Med dette forstår jeg ikke export fra U.S.; kanskje for forklaringen er; Shale olje er Light Sweet med lite sulpher som rafenier f.eks. Kina foretrekker; mens rafenerier i U.S. er '' gearet '' for ung olje ( dirty ) som de ikke lenger får importere fra Venezuela ??

Andre meninger

Jeg har nå forsøkt å stille inn e-post retting automatisk Norsk og Safari til Engelsk. Mulig jeg må
legge inn Tilbake til ordinær/fabrikk innstilling LOL

Litt mer negativ psykologi igjen? OET faller jo litt tilbake på høyt volum hittil til å være OET...
FRO handel derimot er ganske så forsiktig idag. Er det FOMO kraften som begynner å virke? :-)