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75% chance of gov’t mandated curtailments of 300k bbl/d by YE’18
Looks like no trains from the Feds.... Not sure what Trudeau is going to offer in Calgary today... maybe just a pep talk and offer some selfies to help cheer Albertan up.... He had better have a bullet proof vest on....

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Alberta is willing to buy trains itself and help clear a backlog of crude oil in the Canadian province if Ottawa decides not to share costs, Premier Rachel Notley said on Thursday.

Notley, speaking in Calgary to oil well drillers, said Alberta has asked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government to share costs of adding rail capacity to move an additional 120,000 to 140,000 barrels per day. Notley said Alberta has not received an answer from Ottawa.

Full pipelines have stranded much of Western Canada's expanding crude output, driving down the price U.S. refineries are willing to pay.

"Ottawa needs to join Alberta to help ease the economic pain," Notley said. "If Ottawa won't come to the table, then we'll get it done ourselves .. If it takes buying trains to (move more oil to market) then that's what we're going to do."

Reuters reported exclusively late on Wednesday that Alberta has asked Ottawa to share the C$350 million capital cost, and C$2.6 billion in operating costs over three years of buying rail capacity to move more crude, starting in July 2019.

Low prices are costing the Canadian economy C$80 million a day, according to Alberta. Companies that service oil producers are "on life support," said Mark Scholz, president of the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors, which hosted Notley's speech.

Several Canadian crude producers, including Cenovus Energy , have curtailed production and asked Alberta to mandate cuts for other producers.

Notley said the province is considering several options to improve prices. Mandated production is opposed by producers who own refineries to process the cheap oil, such as Suncor Energy and Imperial Oil.

The premier said Alberta would have liked greater recognition of the industry's struggles in the federal government's fiscal update, which it delivered on Wednesday without including new measures to help the sector.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau, asked by reporters in Ottawa about the Reuters report that it was considering the purchase of rail capacity, said "that's a discussion that might go forward in Alberta."

A spokesperson for Canadian National Railway Co could not be immediately reached. Canadian Pacific Railway declined to comment.

Notley said Alberta has short-listed six projects to partially upgrade oil, worth a combined C$5 billion if all proceed. Upgrading reduces the thickness of bitumen so it does not require blending with lighter oil to move in pipelines, freeing up space. (Reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg; additional reporting by David Ljunggren in Ottawa Editing by Frances Kerry and Sanfdra Maler)

75% chance of gov’t mandated curtailments of 300k bbl/d by YE’18
Looks like no trains from the Feds.... Not sure what Trudeau is going to offer in Calgary today... maybe just a pep talk and offer some selfies to help cheer Albertan up.... He had better have a bullet proof vest on....

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Alberta is willing to buy trains itself and help clear a backlog of crude oil in the Canadian province if Ottawa decides not to share costs, Premier Rachel Notley said on Thursday.

Notley, speaking in Calgary to oil well drillers, said Alberta has asked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government to share costs of adding rail capacity to move an additional 120,000 to 140,000 barrels per day. Notley said Alberta has not received an answer from Ottawa.

Full pipelines have stranded much of Western Canada's expanding crude output, driving down the price U.S. refineries are willing to pay.

"Ottawa needs to join Alberta to help ease the economic pain," Notley said. "If Ottawa won't come to the table, then we'll get it done ourselves .. If it takes buying trains to (move more oil to market) then that's what we're going to do."

Reuters reported exclusively late on Wednesday that Alberta has asked Ottawa to share the C$350 million capital cost, and C$2.6 billion in operating costs over three years of buying rail capacity to move more crude, starting in July 2019.

Low prices are costing the Canadian economy C$80 million a day, according to Alberta. Companies that service oil producers are "on life support," said Mark Scholz, president of the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors, which hosted Notley's speech.

Several Canadian crude producers, including Cenovus Energy , have curtailed production and asked Alberta to mandate cuts for other producers.

Notley said the province is considering several options to improve prices. Mandated production is opposed by producers who own refineries to process the cheap oil, such as Suncor Energy and Imperial Oil.

The premier said Alberta would have liked greater recognition of the industry's struggles in the federal government's fiscal update, which it delivered on Wednesday without including new measures to help the sector.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau, asked by reporters in Ottawa about the Reuters report that it was considering the purchase of rail capacity, said "that's a discussion that might go forward in Alberta."

A spokesperson for Canadian National Railway Co could not be immediately reached. Canadian Pacific Railway declined to comment.

Notley said Alberta has short-listed six projects to partially upgrade oil, worth a combined C$5 billion if all proceed. Upgrading reduces the thickness of bitumen so it does not require blending with lighter oil to move in pipelines, freeing up space. (Reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg; additional reporting by David Ljunggren in Ottawa Editing by Frances Kerry and Sanfdra Maler)

Interessant artikkel fra TVA avisen i Canada. Artikkelen omhandler noe som var ukjent for meg, at oppdemmede vassdrag og innsjøer utgjør en stor forurensning av metangasser. Og som vi vet Metan er 4 x så forurensende som C02. I artikkelen står det at visse kunstige innsjøer kan forurense like mye som kullkraftverk!! Dette skal det nå altså forskes på i Quebec.

Tenker denne artikkelen i alle fall ikke gjør QEC sin cleangas mindre aktuell i området....

https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2018/11/22/des-scientifiques-dressent-le-premier-bilan-carbone-des-barrages-hydroelectriques

Saudis need $80...and more then that by 2020
It would seem to me that the royal entourage living off the oil tit is looking at the mess MBS has caused as risk to their lifestyle. Either the knives will come out for MBS or Trump has to take his foot of the Saudi's throat on oil prices....I don't see how both MBS and low oil prices can co-exist over the medium to long term.


----------------------
Fitch Affirms Saudi Arabia at 'A+'; Outlook Stable
22 NOV 2018 07:58 AM ET




Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong/London-22 November 2018: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Saudi Arabia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A+' with a Stable Outlook.

A full list of rating actions is at the end of this Rating Action Commentary.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
Saudi Arabia's ratings are supported by strong fiscal and external balance sheets but weighed down by oil dependence, weak governance indicators compared with 'A' category peers and high geopolitical risks.

The fiscal break-even oil price, which we estimate at over USD80/bbl, is higher than for many regional peers and above our forecast oil price levels. We forecast the central government deficit at 5.3% of GDP in 2018 (SAR152 billion), from 9.3% in 2017, as sharp increases in oil and non-oil revenue offset resurgent government spending. Underlying fiscal policy has become more expansionary as measured by the expected widening of the non-oil primary deficit in 2018. We expect this to be reflected in a renewed widening of the overall budget deficit to 7.5% of GDP by 2020 as oil prices moderate to our baseline assumption of an average of USD57.5/bbl (for Brent). In the recent 2019 pre-budget statement, the medium-term forecast for government spending and revenue is 8%-9% higher than in the Fiscal Balance Program (FBP) update released alongside the 2018 budget. The 2018 FBP update had pushed back the target year for fiscal balance to 2023 from 2020.

The government has taken a number of measures to diversify its revenue base and trim the fiscal deficit. This year started with the introduction of a 5% VAT, a 130% hike to petrol prices, increases to household electricity tariffs as well as an increase in levies on expatriates. These measures contributed to a 48% jump in non-oil revenue in 9M18. We expect the full-year increase in 2018 to be a more moderate 21%, after 38% in 2017.

Some of the budgetary impact of structural non-oil revenue measures is being offset by additional spending to soften their social impact and support growth. The government has introduced means-tested transfers from the new SAR32 billion Citizen's Account (expected to increase alongside further reforms affecting the cost of living). The 2018 budget also earmarked SAR72 billion of central government spending for a private sector stimulus programme focused on infrastructure, SMEs and export financing. Another SAR50 billion stimulus package was announced shortly after the publication of the 2018 budget (to be funded by receipts from last year's anti-corruption campaign and savings elsewhere).

There are prospects for spending to grow less than in our baseline forecast, helping to reduce the deficit further. Expenditure was 73% of the budget in the first three quarters of 2018, and 69% of the government's updated fiscal projections. If full-year expenditure ends up being in line with the budget, the deficit could narrow to 2.7% of GDP in 2018. We estimate that an increase of oil prices by USD5/bbl over our baseline forecast would lead to a 1.7% of GDP improvement in the fiscal balance.

Amid continued deficits, we expect that the government will continue to issue domestic and international debt. Under our baseline oil price assumptions, we see the central government debt ratio rising from a little over 17% in 2017 to about 34% of GDP in 2020, by which time debt net of general government deposits could turn marginally positive. Our fiscal forecasts imply net financing needs of about SAR176 billion in 2019 and SAR219 billion in 2020. The broader public sector balance sheet will remain a rating strength, underpinned by sovereign net foreign assets of 67% of GDP in 2018 (reflecting government, central bank and pension fund foreign assets less foreign debt).

We assume no proceeds from privatisation in 2018-2020. The government's privatisation programme unveiled in April this year targets proceeds of SAR40 billion by 2020 from selling or otherwise handing over to the private sector various government assets. The IPO of a 5% stake in Saudi Aramco has been pushed back to at least 2021.

We forecast Saudi Arabia's current account surplus at 8.3% of GDP (USD63 billion) in 2018 after 2.2% in 2017 as a result of a bounce back of hydrocarbon receipts. However, we expect central bank reserves to increase only by a modest USD11 billion by year-end amid continued non-resident investments abroad (partly related to the Public Investment Fund). The level of central bank reserves in 2018 will remain exceptionally high at over 24 months of external payments. We expect the current account surplus to narrow by 2020, reflecting a moderation in oil receipts and a recovery in domestic demand, capital spending and imports. The financial account could have some support from a pick-up in inward FDI (USD1.7 billion in 1H18 from a low of USD1.4 billion in the whole of 2017), inward portfolio equity investment (related to Saudi Arabia's inclusion in major equity indices) and public sector borrowing.

We expect growth to pick up to 2.2% in 2018 (from -0.9% in 2017) and stay in that range in 2019-2020. The fiscal expansion will accelerate non-oil growth to 1.8% (from 1.1% in 2017), but, in our view, it is still likely to be held back by high domestic uncertainty. Our forecasts incorporate oil GDP growth of 2.7% in 2018 (from -3.1% in 2017) related to continued growth in refining activity and a recovery in oil production. We assume that oil production will stay at its September 2018 level of 10.5 mmbbl/d and do not assume a new OPEC deal to cut output. Structural reforms under the "Vision 2030" programme could boost growth over the medium term.

In our view, political risks are high compared with peers and historical norms, due to Saudi Arabia's prominent role in a volatile region, the country's increasingly assertive and unpredictable foreign policy and the rapid pace of change domestically. The potential for politics to harm growth, trade and investment has been highlighted by Saudi Arabia's recent diplomatic rows with Canada and Germany, the international reaction to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Kingdom's consulate in Istanbul and the ongoing dispute with Qatar. Meanwhile, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran remain high over Yemen, Iran's nuclear programme and its influence across the region.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) and QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)
Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Saudi Arabia a score equivalent to a rating of 'A-' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR scale.

Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its QO, relative to rated peers, as follows:

- Public finances: +1 notch, to reflect the large government deposits held with the central bank as well as other government assets.
- External finances: +1 notch, to reflect the large size of sovereign net foreign assets, largely held as international reserves and the strong net external creditor position.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to an LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
The following factors could, individually or collectively, trigger positive rating action:
- Fiscal consolidation or an extended rise in oil prices that generate a sustainable fiscal surplus and reverse the decline in the government's net creditor position.

The following factors could, individually or collectively, trigger negative rating action:
- Failure to reduce the budget deficit and halt the deterioration of the public sector balance sheet; and
- Spill-over from regional conflicts or a domestic political shock that threatens stability or affects key economic policies or activities.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch assumes that Brent crude oil prices will average USD70/bbl in 2018, USD65/bbl in 2019 and USD57.5/bbl in 2020, in line with its Global Economic Outlook - September 2018.

The full list of rating actions is as follows:

Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR: affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable
Long-Term Local-Currency IDR: affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable
Short-Term Foreign-Currency IDR: affirmed at 'F1+'
Short-Term Local-Currency IDR: affirmed at 'F1+'
Country Ceiling: affirmed at 'AA'
Issue ratings on long-term senior unsecured foreign-currency bonds: affirmed at 'A+'
Issue ratings on KSA Sukuk Limited global trust certificates (sukuk): affirmed at 'A+'

Contact:

Primary Analyst
Krisjanis Krustins
Director
+852 2263 9831
Fitch (Hong Kong) Limited
19/F Man Yee Building
68 Des Voeux Road Central
Hong Kong

Secondary Analyst
Jan Friederich
Senior Director
+852 2263 9910

Committee Chairperson
Ed Parker
Managing Director
+44 20 3530 1176

Indian families are getting air conditioners which is driving up electricity use and costs, write Bill Spindle and Russell Gold.
The growing use of air conditioning among India’s 1.3 billion people is among its biggest energy problems.

Demand also is rising across other developing countries, where climates tend to be hot and incomes and populations are growing. That puts India at the epicenter of a global conundrum: How to accommodate the escalating needs for electricity without setting off an unsustainable tidal wave of energy use?

A cadre of Indian bureaucrats is pursuing one of the most promising responses: more-efficient air conditioners. Energy efficiency is the unsexy side of the world’s energy debate. It gets little attention compared to efforts to install solar and wind farms.

It is particularly critical in the developing world, where most of the energy growth over the next generation will take place.

Developing countries, which consumed less than half the world’s energy in 2000, now account for 58%, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. By the year 2040 they will account for 67%, the IEA projects.

Uptrade
skal forsøke ut fra det lille jeg har fått med meg. Kondensatet brukes i det vesentlige til "smøring" eller glidemiddel for bitumen transport fra oljesandproduksjonen, og er normalt betalt med en liten premie i forhold til WTI-prisen.
Den øvrige gassen går gjennom separasjonsanlegget i Musreau og skiller ut Butan og Propan, som har vesentlig høyere pris. Resten er tørrgass.
Fra Q1 2019 vil selskapet gå med overskudd fra. 3000 boed. De produserer i dag kun gas og kondensat. Men de gjorde faktisk en test i en av JV brønnene med Orlen i Halfway formasjonen og kom ut med ca. 250 boed med gass og lettolje. Hoveddelen var lettolje.
Derfor mener jeg at de burde ha satset betydelig mer på Kakwa området hvor de har både Montney og Halfway formasjonen.

Til den tid er den Stive P gået under jorden af ærgelse over at han ikke fik købt i tide:-)

ta det med ro vi kommer ikke til at sælge før 2020 der kan vi til gengæld sælge til kurs minimum15, incl jordan.

Skjønner det er utrulig mye uro i verdensmarkedet nå for tiden. Når dette roer seg og investorene kommer tilbake på banen vil man se at QEC kommer til å gå opp i pris. Denne meldingen er svært positiv både for denne brønnen og fremtidige i samme område. Visst man ser tilbake en del år i tid når de første meldingene om brønnene kom på banen fløy kursen. Syntes det er en ypperlig mulighet for å kjøpe seg inn eller fylle på eksisterende portefølge. Sunn jeg ikke har mer kapital til rådighet.... sukksukk

Super resultat :) Når disse brønde kobles på nettet næste år, bliver de indregnet, vil jeg tro, samtidig vil høj
kondensat -og forhåbentlig gaspriser hurtigere nedbringe ned-betalingstiden, så QEC kan få sine 50%(vigtig det).
Håbet er at disse brønde, og kommende, giver et godt flow over et længere tidsperspektiv(noget man ikke ved endnu).
Resurseanslag vil løbene blive forhøjet for hver brønd, samt jo flere brønde, der viser tilfredsstillende resultat over
længere periode, jo større værdisætning vil QEC besidde(penge i undergrunden alt efter varierende energipriser).
Jo flere indtægtsgivende ben, jo større chancer for frasalg, vil jeg tro.
Endnu en brønd, der traf, ingen problemer og klar til sammenkobling til net.Vi kan godt være glad, selvom kursen
er som den er,er dagens melding veldig positiv på sigt.

6710

Det er bare å sette verdien av Quebec til null så får du ingen overraskelser derfra, trekk fra ca 50 øre på kursmålet på 6 kr. ca 5.50 uten Quebec. Men som du antyder, det ligger fortsatt en Quebec straff i børsverdsettelsen av QEC på en krone eller to.

Tror du har ret - man kan også være nervøse omkring hvad enden bliver med Quebec.
Kursen er blevet straffet en gang - men ender det med at de også lukker muligheden for fracking, så vil kursen blive straffet en gang til ?
Det er lidt deprimerende - for syntes QEC levere vare på så mange punkter lige pt. og investorerne belønner det ikke rigtig.

Det var overraskende stille rundt omsetningen til QEC i dag. Mulig det blir for lenge til brønnene kobles opp og alle nå er liv redde for børsen fremover..... Nok en ganag gode nyheter på en møkkadag. Det blir imidlertid cash på bunnlinja av dette funnet til slutt.

Noen spørsmål rundt kakwa:
Er det kun gass og kondensat?
Hvordan skiller de ut kondensaten av gassen?
Er gassen ren nok til å "puttes" rett på en vanlig LPG flaske, eller må den bearbeides?
Hva kan en bruke kondensat til? Rask google, viser forskjellige typer kondensat, også kalt lettolje. Er det egentlig Lettolje vi snakker om?

9-10 mmcf er jo meget bra, med tanke på vår første test på St.Eduardo for 8 år siden, hvorfor reagerer ikke markedet bedre på kakwa resultatene?
Da hoppet kursen 3-4 kr allerede i åpning (24 til 28,-)
Altså, hva er unikt med Quebec vs Kakwa? Størrelseorden på feltet?

Tygg på dette sitatet av MB: "Together with our recently acquired 17 sections, we are looking forward to developing this large contiguous block with our partner.” Partner er Kicking Horse, velrennomert operatør, som altså skal stå for utviklingen av hele feltet til QEC. Begynner å lukte litt fugl av Montney-feltet: QEC har tildigere annonsert plan om i lpet av et par år å øke produksjon til 10.000 bbl/d - og det var FØR de doblet arealet via det siste kjøpet - så konservativt nå å anslå 15.000 bbl/d?

Litt lek med tall: de har hatt en driftsmargin på $34/bbl hitiil i 2018 - potensiell EBITDA med 15.000 bbl/d @ $34 => $180 mil/år. Eller tjene inn hele børsverdi på under ett år - fra Montney alene.

Jeg håber virkelig at den stille og rolig kan gå forbi 3,- tallet igen - men der er ikke meget logik i QEC.
Nu er det 3. gode nyhed på meget kort tid - og kursen har efterfølgende bevæget sig sydover.

Man må glæde sig over at QEC stille og roligt bevæger sig mod at blive et rigtig solidt firma med sorte tal på bundlinjen - og det er det der i sidste ende skal bære kursen frem.

Ikke noe fare for at kursen går opp på dette, hvis den gjør det så går den rett ned igjen..

Nå har vi 3 gode meldinger på rad kvelt av generell børsnedgang, kan vi håpe på en rekyl om børsdagen blir sånn passe nøytral.....
Bør nevnes at 30% av QEC sin produksjon (gassen) nå selges til 50-80% høyere pris enn de siste årene.

Jeg er overbevist på at vi snart ser en kursutvikling som gjør alle qec-eiere fornøyd!

Ser meget bra ut. Blir det kakwa North som kommer til og bringe qec opp mot gamle høyder i framtiden ?
Potensialet er tilstede.

Kakwa nord innfrir og meldinga røper også partner på de nye seksjonene som ble kjøpt nylig.
Dette blir bra. 1124 bbls pr dag med kondensat gir god inntjening.