BWE. Fremtiden er rosenrød.

Fluefiskeren
BWE 18.08.2023 kl 13:11 294038

Forrige tråd ble stengt da den ble for stor. Jeg tar derfor og starter en ny. Det passer bra da BWE er inne i en ny fase. Tre produksjonsbrønner er boret med godt resultat i Gabon og tre gjenstår. Kjøp av asset i Brasil venter på godkjennelse som kan komme når som helst.

Og gassfeltet, Kudu, kan bli mye større enn man trodde. Klipper inn litt fra en fersk artikkel Gunnarius la ut tidligere i dag:

« The Ministry of Mines and Energy says the country's Kudu gas reserves are expected to increase to 10 trillion cubic feet (TCF) from the current estimated 1.3 TCF.

The revised figure is due to the associated gas found within the Graff-1 well by Shell, Yonker, and TotalEnergies' enormous Venus-1 offshore discovery.

Petroleum Commissioner Maggy Shino said the discovery of light crude oil reserves has transformed the landscape of the Kudu gas field.

"We are seeing that we now have a possibility of us increasing this 1.3 TCF of natural gas to up to ten TCF of gas because of the associated gas that we are seeing within the graph, within the Yonker and within Venus," she said on Wednesday.

The revelation has the potential to reshape the energy landscape in Namibia and the wider Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. »

https://thebrief.com.na/index.php/component/k2/item/3348-namibia-s-kudu-gas-reserves-projected-to-increase-tenfold


10 Tcf tilsvarer 1,9 milliarder boe. Her kan man med god grunn ta i bruk betegnelsen elefant hvis dette innfris.
Redigert 18.08.2023 kl 13:12 Du må logge inn for å svare
Fluefiskeren
24.09.2023 kl 12:50 6728

Fort gjort å glemme hva man har gjort noen ganger. Du er medlem av en eksklusiv klubb.
Fluefiskeren
24.09.2023 kl 12:00 6726

Er ikke dette akkurat det samme som den du oversatte til norsk å la ut

18.09.2023 kl 15:33

Vi snakket litt da om dette med blå og grønn hydrogen. Teksten er svært lik.
solb
24.09.2023 kl 11:47 6724

Dette er nok enda mer blodferskt. Antar prosjektet dobles i størrelse, til 800MW :
"Oil commercial viability data available soon – Shino

Byadmin
SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

Written by: Maihapa Ndjavera

Petroleum commissioner in the mines and energy ministry Maggy Shino recently said the determination on whether Namibian oil discoveries recorded in the Orange basin are commercially viable, will only be known in the next eight to 12 months.

“Work is still ongoing. Shell and TotalEnergy are now mapping the extent of the field to see if the oil will flow to the surface at a level that is commercially viable,” said Shino while addressing a Parliamentary Standing Committee on Natural Resources’ information session. The session was attended by mines and energy officials last week to specifically inform government on the oil and gas discoveries in the Orange basin, and to present a local content draft policy.

At the session, she made it clear that oil discoveries are a different story than the Kudu Gas field, with the latter at an advanced stage of just making a final investment decision to attract the required capital.

Kudu Gas is considered to be able to generate its first power by 2026, and export to national and regional markets. The project is now seen in a different light after recent oil discoveries offshore Namibia.

“The Kudu gas project is progressing to power the future. Sharing the details, key power sales arrangements are progressing. The field has the potential to produce about 820 megawatts of electricity, which is far more than national consumption,” said Shino.

The Kudu gas field is located in the northern Orange sub-basin, approximately 130km offshore, and was discovered in 1974. The resource is currently delineated by seven subsequent wells.

In 2017, BW Energy entered into a farm-in agreement for a 56% operated interest, with the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (Namcor) holding a 44% joint venture interest.

In 2021, BW Energy signed a farm-up agreement with Namcor, increasing the corporation’s interest to 95% in the licence area, after which the transaction was closed in 2021.

Shino said the Kudu Gas project is expected to use common green hydrogen infrastructure, to be located in Lüderitz. The southern harbour town is set to be an energy hub for Namibia.

The envisioned Kudu gas project will be used to produce blue hydrogen for export purposes. Blue hydrogen is hydrogen produced from natural gas with a process of steam methane reforming, where natural gas is mixed with very hot steam and a catalyst.

Challenges of discoveries

“The issue with our discoveries is the issue of the depth of where the oil is located. We need infrastructure that is built fit-for- purpose. We will need to incorporate floating production facilities, and they require investment in the range of about US$15 billion to US$20 billion before production,” she outlined.

The petroleum commissioner added that there is a need for Namibia to attract these investments, but that there are pitfalls which the country needs to tackle.

Shino further warned that Namibia should avoid a scenario where the economy is over-dependent on oil revenues and advised that the oil revenues be used to develop other sectors."
https://namibiaoilandgas.com/2023/09/11/oil-commercial-viability-data-available-soon-shino/

solb
24.09.2023 kl 11:30 6753

Er dette det siste fra Kudu?
"Namibia's industrialisation dream depends on Kudu gas: Shino

WINDHOEK, 17 AUG (NAMPA) - Petroleum Commissioner, Maggy Shino, said the offshore Kudu gas fields are the only solution to Namibia’s dream of becoming an industrialised nation.She said Namibia needs a dependable baseload power project and Kudu gas is the only project that can produce reliable electricity. “Kudu gas is the only solution that can give us baseload power, and only with baseload power are you able to industrialise as a nation,” Shino said.The petroleum commissioner said this during her address on Wednesday at the start of the two-day Namibia Oil and Gas Conference in the capital.“When we are searching for these resources, we are looking at opportunities for us not only to have our lights on, but for an opportunity for an industrial nation. An industrial nation would therefore be built by making sure that we provide power that can be used to drive these industries,” she said.Since its discovery in 1974, the Kudu gas field, which lies 170km off the South-West coast of Namibia and has 1.3 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas, has remained untapped.Shino said the country’s gas reserve is anticipated to increase to 10 TCF as a result of the discovery of oil and the associated gas in the Orange Basin.Therefore, she advised investors to look at the Kudu gas project with a fresh perspective.“We therefore call upon you to look at the Kudu project now with a new vision and a new lens because now, with the additional gas reserve that we have had, it’s a project backed by infrastructure,” Shino said.Significant gas has been found in the Graff-1, Yonker, and Venus-1 wells that have also yielded a huge volume of oil off the Namibian coast in the Orange basin.As part of the government’s oil and gas strategy, a floating platform will be set 170 km offshore within the block owned by the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia and BW Energy.“With this floating platform, we are going to build a pipeline that is going to move the gas from the field to Lüderitz in a port called Elizabeth Bay. We are going to put up a power badge that is going to convert the natural gas that we are going to produce into electricity,” she added.(NAMPA)AT/HP/AS Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info)."
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/namibias-industrialisation-dream-depends-on-kudu-gas-shino/ar-AA1fp79s
Fluefiskeren
24.09.2023 kl 10:32 6809

Legger inn litt om Kudu. Alt er vel kjent, men likevel skader det vel ikke med en repetisjon eller kanskje noe nytt for nylige eller potensielle aksjonærer.

Jeg skal være ærlig og si at når jeg leste meg litt opp på selskapet for noen år siden la jeg liten vekt på Kudu i Namibia. Tenkte det var først og fremst olje som gjaldt. Gass har imidlertid fått økende fokus etterhvert og jeg synes nå at Kudu er veldig spennende. Ser virkelig fram til resultatene av den nye seismikk og jeg synes også det er spennende med brønnen skal bore på nabolisensen i løpet av høsten av Galp. De skal bore to brønner. Den andre kommer på nyåret. Jeg sitter med en følelse om at tre-fire år frem i tid er det Dussafu og Kudu som er våre viktigste assets. Det kan skje mye spennende i Brasil også, men for min del synes jeg Afrika er mest spennende. Det er sikkert de som er uenige med meg, men det er selvsagt lov. Det betyr ikke at jeg ikke har tro på utvidelser på Golfhino-klyngen, men Maromba har jeg alltid vært skeptisk til. Interessen for Orange Basin har blitt enormt stor etter elefantfunnene til Total Energy og Shell.

Kudu Gas Field

The only commercial discovery in Namibia to date is the Kudu Gas Field, which was discovered in 1974 by a joint venture, comprising Chevron Oil, Regent Petroleum, and SOEKOR (Pty) Ltd. It lies approximately 170km west of Oranjemund in offshore Namibia, at a water depth of 170m. The field’s proven natural gas reserves are estimated at 1.3 trillion cubic feet and its possible reserves at nine trillion cubic feet.

Initial development plans

The initial development plan for the field was a gas-to-power project including Namibia Power Corporation (NAMPOWER) as the downstream partner. However, the initial plan failed due to the non-fulfilment of some conditions in the project development plan (PDA). In terms of the project schedule set out in the annexures of the PDA, the government was supposed to provide the required project support, including economic stabilisation provisions and financial guarantees, which it failed to do.

In November 2018 and January 2019, the government made it clear that it was not going to provide the required support in terms of the PDA. As a result, the downstream partner, NAMPOWER, indicated that it would withdraw from the PDA.

Current development plans

BW Energy took control of the licence when it signed an agreement with NAMCOR increasing BW Energy’s interest to 95% in the licence in 2021. NAMCOR has an option to increase its interest after field start-up.

During the Namibia International Energy Conference, BW Kudu highlighted that it had revised its development plan for the gas-to-power project. The revised integrated development plan aims to supply competitive power in a phased approach to a growing African market.

The proposed plan centres on three subsea wells feeding production to a floating production facility (FPF) that will extract condensate, leaving the gas to be exported 195km to a nearshore power plant in a two-phased approach.

Phase 1 of the revised proposed development is due onstream in 2026 and is earmarked to feed a new 420-megawatt barge-based power plant south of Lüderitz town. It is, however, important to note that the final location of the power plant is still to be finalised which will either be barge mounted in the Elizabeth Bay or onshore facility east of the town of Lüderitz.

Further, in light of the recent discoveries, BW Kudu agreed to acquire about 4,600 km2 of 3D seismic data across all of Production Licence 003. It has been reported that the 3D data would “further enhance the depositional model” in the Kudu licence and identify potential exploration targets.

BW Kudu will soon commence with the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment and regulatory approval process. The proposed Kudu gas project is of significant importance to Namibia, especially in addressing Namibia’s energy security and addressing energy poverty in the country. It has been reported that the Kudu gas field could provide baseload power to Namibia. Namibia relies on unpredictable hydroelectric plants backed by South African imports for domestic electricity needs and there are expectations that the Kudu Gas development project could mitigate the energy crises in Namibia and Southern Africa.«


https://practiceguides.chambers.com/practice-guides/energy-oil-gas-2023/namibia/trends-and-developments
hulabalula
22.09.2023 kl 19:32 7182

The way I look at it is we only have one issue moving against us currently: the ESPs. Everything else is looking better than say one month ago. The share price? Whatever. My guess is one year from now we will all be laughing at how worried we were and how we were seeing ghosts everywhere. One year from now the market will agree with us. Or so I think. Have a good weekend everybody!
gunnarius
22.09.2023 kl 18:32 7213

Liten tvil om at myndighetene i Gabon er på olje-ballen - og vil legge alle forholdene til rette for smidig drift og nye kontrakter inkl. leteboring. Et sundt tegn på at Gabon er seg bevisst betydningen av å ha en velfungerende oljesektor, med siktemål videre vekst . Alt i alt, meget betryggende for bl.a. BWE. Denne artikkelen anser jeg for så betydningsfull at jeg gjengir den i sin helhet:

Gabon’s Oil Minister Holds Crucial Talks with Industry Leaders

September 21, 2023

In a significant move towards revitalizing Gabon’s national oil sector, the Minister of Petroleum Marcel Abeke hosted a delegation from the Gabonese Oil Union (Upega), the nation’s leading industry association, on Wednesday, September 20th. The meeting marked the initiation of an ongoing dialogue framework between the Petroleum Minister and key economic partners within the oil sector.

During this pivotal encounter, both parties addressed several crucial issues aimed at fostering a favorable business environment and propelling the oil sector’s growth.

Upega’s President, Jacqueline Bignoumba, stated, “This is our first meeting with the Petroleum Minister. After congratulating him on his promotion, we discussed pressing matters that require swift action. These include reinvigorating exploration through the signing of new oil contracts, finalizing the application texts for the Hydrocarbons Code, which complements the sector’s legal framework, and ensuring the consistent supply of crude oil to Sogara.”

Additionally, discussions centered on the fiscal stability provisions initially outlined in oil contracts, initially set at eight years and subsequently reduced to five years by the 2022 Finance Law. Technical approvals and considerations related to compliance and opportunity for the acquisition of specific blocks were also on the agenda. The broader conversation encompassed strategies to attract maximum investment into Gabon’s oil domain.

Marcel Abeke, Minister of Petroleum, assured that these topics would undergo thorough internal examination before further discussions with Upega. Beyond this introductory meeting, Minister Abeke pledged to individually engage with each oil company to address specific challenges critical to propelling economic development.

This meeting signifies a significant step in the efforts to reinvigorate Gabon’s oil industry, fostering hope for renewed growth and prosperity in the sector.

https://thenewsyouwant.com/gabons-oil-minister-holds-crucial-talks-with-industry-leaders/
gunnarius
22.09.2023 kl 18:06 7247

TotalEnergies to talk about Namibia oil exploration, share buybacks

By Forrest Crellin and Benjamin Mallet

September 22, 2023

New oil blocks in Namibia could hold 4 billion barrels
Company expected to pay out more to investors
LNG production seen growing with new acquisitions

PARIS, Sept 22 (Reuters) - TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) is expected to lay out the potential for its oil discoveries in Namibia at an investor day next week as the French energy firm continues to bet on oil and gas to boost profits while also growing its low-carbon business.

The group said this month it is considering a $9 billion oil and gas project in Suriname. Analysts are now keen to hear more about its recent exploration activity offshore Namibia - which has no oil and gas output now but could become one of the top 15 oil producers by 2035.

For mer:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/totalenergies-talk-about-namibia-oil-exploration-share-buybacks-2023-09-22/
solb
22.09.2023 kl 14:35 7357

Da kan det kanskje påregnes 2 Q hvis det aller meste går til nedbetaling?
gunnarius
22.09.2023 kl 14:30 7346

Ref. Petrobras meldingen om salget:

The transaction was concluded with payment at sight of US$12.2 million to Petrobras, including
the adjustments provided for in the contract. The amount received today is in addition to the US$
3 million paid to Petrobras when the contract was signed. In addition to this amount, Petrobras is
expected to receive up to US$ 60 million in contingent payments, depending on future Brent prices
and the development of the assets.

https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/25fdf098-34f5-4608-b7fa-17d60b2de47d/48b28417-a9f8-b993-520f-90d8fbd1e03a?origin=1

Kjøpet av BWE på USD 75 mill, kan ses opp mot f.eks. FCF, som etter min vurdering med 10.000 f/d, vil gi ca. USD 40 mill. per Q til BWE, med dagens oljepris. Tror dette kan være en grei indikator. Som man ser av meldingen til Petrobras, det er betalingstermer. Her har BWE fått fryktelig mye for pengene. Pipeline, subsea, Golfinho- og Canapu feltet. Camarupim- klyngen/feltet og sist men ikke minst BM-ES-23, med gass/kondensat og de to funnene Brigadeiro og Quindim. BWE har gjort et kupp - trolig et av de aller siste Lula og Brasil kommer til å realisere. Nå er i praksis divestment-døra i Brasil stengt.
solb
22.09.2023 kl 14:05 7379

gunnarius, hvor mange "lifts" med salg skal til før Golfinho m.m. er fullstendig nedbetalt? Er det tilstrekkelig med 3?
Fluefiskeren
22.09.2023 kl 13:49 7317

Kudu har den fordel framfor LNG at vi snakker om rørgass. Det har et mye mindre klimaavtrykk enn LNG. LNG er helt oppe på nivå med kull. Men dette snakkes det ikke om. Vet ikke om det er bevisst eller det om det er manglende kunnskap.

« Don’t buy the hype: LNG is bad for the climate
October 26, 2022

Dave Gray-Donald
Program Manager, Oil & Gas
3 min read
There is lots of talk about fossil gas these days in Canada, and it can be a lot to keep up with. So what’s going on? And what does it mean for the climate?

The war in Ukraine and potential fuel shortages in countries like Germany this winter have brought the issue of gas into the spotlight. The industry is saying the world needs more fossil gas (also known as “natural gas”), exported overseas in the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

Ramping up production of fossil gas and exporting it as LNG is a threat to the climate. But industry and supportive politicians are trying to convince us that LNG is a climate solution – a “bridge fuel” away from coal and towards cleaner energy. Most LNG projects, which take years to build, have been proposed or are already under construction on the West Coast, though there are a few companies eying the East Coast too.»

There are three glaring reasons why LNG exports are a climate disaster and unnecessary. They are also a significant Indigenous rights concern.

LNG emits about as much greenhouse gas (GHG) as coal«

https://environmentaldefence.ca/2022/10/26/dont-buy-the-hype-lng-is-bad-for-the-climate/
solb
22.09.2023 kl 13:39 7339

Nydelig innlegg.
Ellers må vi følge med på : “Invest in Namibia Energies” strategic session at African Energy Week 2023 (AEW) in Cape Town on October 18."

"The 100-page publication also explores trade and investment opportunities within Namibia’s support sectors, including power, transport and infrastructure, featuring an update from BW Energy on its flagship Kudu gas-to-power project, highlighting the expansion of Namibia’s principal ports and positioning the country as a trade a regional logistics hub within the SADC"
https://www.tradearabia.com/news/OGN_413580.html
gunnarius
22.09.2023 kl 12:45 7261

hulabalula, interessante betraktninger du kommer med.

Det er bare å erkjenne - BWE-aksjen fremstår som lite potent for tiden. Imidlertid bør man få med seg at selskapet og aksjen posisjoneres for en fremtid innen det fossile, som blir mest mulig spiselig, jf. gass. Jeg anser det som en ubetinget fordel at BWE vinkler produksjonen mot både olje og gass. Dette gir en fleksibilitet - og strategien kan legges med siktemål optimal verdiskaping - gitt de rådende omstendigheter.

Mitt generelle bilde av den globale energi-situasjonen tilsier at markedet har kastet seg på den "grønne bølgen" og det overinvesteres innen fornybar energi for raskt, med siktemål langsiktig avkastning . La nå først subsidieringen avta - og deretter evaluer det hele. Uten tvil, man vil få økt elektrifisering basert på sol og vind. Innen transportsektoren - med fossil brensel - vil batteriteknologien forbedres og bruken økes.

Mitt inntrykk er at både shale og øvrig O&G produksjon i for stor grad prioriteres aksjonærene i form av økt utbytte. Dette kan påvirke evnen til videre vekst og ny utbygging. Har en negativ impact vedr. stabilisere og øke produksjonen i årene som kommer. Kan faktisk tiltre BWEs tankesett. Avvent til det meste er finansiert. Selv om jeg tror dividende vil komme på programmet en del tidligere enn BWE har guidet. Med Maromba på plass og rent fundingmessig, vil aksjonærene og særlig BW Gruppen ønske dividende velkommen. Alle ser hva som skjer i markedet og at dividende innen O&G selskapene blir den nye rettesnoren. Dette trenger ikke bety at BWE, som driver med ramp-up og kraftig inntektsøkning, blir satt på sidelinjen. Aksjekursen er ikke kun avhengig av dividende og man må henge med ved den tid dividende innføres. .

Dette betyr, at BWE og alle andre innen BW-systemet vil innrette seg etter den generelle trenden i markedet. Min påstand er at innen 1-2 år har BWE et tilbud om dividende for sine akjonærer og storeiere. Hvorfor mangement og styre i BWE holder dividende spørsmålet på en armlengdes avstand, er enkelt og greit fordi man ikke ønsker støy rundt spørsmålet og en negativ markedseffekt. Enn videre er strategien - rask vekst og økt produksjon, som geografisk differensieres..

Med økende grad av fy-fy innen fossil energi, vil BWE som selskap rett og slett bli tvunget inn i den generelle trenden, hvor dividende blir normen. Uten dividende - aksjonærene kommer til å ha en lunken holdning - eierne ditto. Ønsker BW Gruppen og BW Energy økt goodwill og handlekraft i markedet, ja så innføres dividende - gitt dette ikke setter selskapets under uønsket risiko. Etter finansiering av Maromba - eller noe vedrørende Maromba/ forøvrig innen M&A - vil bli indikatoren for fremtidig dividende.

Dette sagt, BWE er på vei opp - videre oppover til topps rent investeringsmessig og hva angår en formidabel økning i fri kontantstrøm. Det er dette som markedet nå vil måle selskapet mot.

Og da er vi tilbake til: Show me the money!

Dette vil markedet i første omgang få dokumentert i form av alle de løftingene/volumene som BWE kommer til å gjennomføre i Q4 og utover i 2024.. Startskuddet for den nye tiden begynte i går med den første løftingen for BWE på Golfinho. Neste løfting for BWE på Dussafu, tidlig i oktober. Deretter blir det månedsvis løfting, trolig både på Golfinho og Dussafu. For Golfinho - 100% til BWE og for Dussafu 73.5%.

Muligens BWE presser mer ut av sitronen. men selv 10.000 f/d fra Golfinho vil bringe OPEX ned på det midtre $30-tallet.På Dussafu blir OPEX rundt $20 - lavere i 2024.

Baseres produksjonen for Golfinho på 9.000 f/d og netto fra Dussafu 29.400 f/d (73.5% av 40.000 f/d), vil årsproduksjonen (BWE) for 2024 ligge på ~3.3 mill. fat fra Golfinho og 10.5 mill fat fra Dussafu, samlet for Golfinho og Dussafu ca. 13.8 mill fat med olje i 2024. BWE guider netto ca. 5.8 mill. (73.5& av gross 8 mill fat)i produksjon for 2023. Dvs. 13.8 mill. fat med olje i 2024 for BWE vs. 5.8 mill. i 2023 (eks Golfinho i Q4).

Min slutning:

Dividende vil fremtvinge seg selv av naturlige årsaker og raskere enn selskapet har guidet.

Aksjekursen vil få vedvarende boost ved den tid markedet erfarer at løftingene gjennomføres med regularitet, både på Golfinho og Dussafu. Alle løftingene vil være forløperen til hva respektivt Q vil vise, ref. bunnlinjen.
Redigert 22.09.2023 kl 13:04 Du må logge inn for å svare
solb
22.09.2023 kl 10:56 7348

Ledelsen skriver om Kudu:
" • New data enhances depositional model and de
risks potential upside targets
• Additional opportunities already identified ‒ Integration of new seismic data with existing Kudu well
data and recent Orange Basin exploration results
• Significantly increases the probability of further
Kudu resources"
Ser større anomalier oppe i NW og nede i SØ på kartbladet.
Kan det være at de finner den manglende oljekolonnen her?
Redigert 22.09.2023 kl 10:57 Du må logge inn for å svare
hulabalula
22.09.2023 kl 08:13 7468

Btw. another bullish sign on BWE: The number of listeners in the room was quite small compared to those for drillers and alternative/renewable energy (fewer folks in the boat = more upside when the tide shifts). This was a general theme for most E&Ps though, as was the case last year when I also attended.

Admittedly, one reason could also be that the driller space is more consolidated ie fewer to choose from whereas the number of E&Ps is greater.
hulabalula
22.09.2023 kl 07:38 3271

Yes, sure. Btw, I saw you ask in the PEN thread whether BlueNord was presenting at the conference and the answer is yes (on Wednesday). I didn't see the presentation though.
gunnarius
21.09.2023 kl 17:53 3525

Meget bra - BWE meldte ifm. close 28. august:

BW Energy has today completed the acquisition of the Golfinho and Camarupim
Clusters from Petrobras and assumed ownership and operatorship of approximately
10,000 barrels of daily oil production,

Dvs. BWE får ved denne løftingen eierskap til den produserte oljen. .

Da vil BWE i Q4 få løftet 2.25 mill. fat fra Dussafu og 900.000 fat (eks løftingen i dag) fra Golfinho. Dette betyr at BWE ligger an til >3 mill. fat som skal løftes i Q4.

Med dagens oljepris ser jeg for meg at det blir samlet FCF for BWE i Q4 med ~USD 150 mill.

Og aksjekursen til BWE, ja lavere i dag enn i Q1 hvor den hadde et snitt på ca. NOK 28 og en oljepris ca.$83, med gross 7.300 f/d. Gross i dag på Dussafu 29.000 f/d og netto 10.000 f/d til BWE fra Golfinho. Oljeprisen er i dag $10 høyere per fat enn i Q1. Og aksjekursen til BWE? Say no more ...
Redigert 21.09.2023 kl 17:59 Du må logge inn for å svare
6 Mack
21.09.2023 kl 16:45 3521

Shuttle tanker Eagle Parana ferdig liftet i dag tidlig Golfinho oil field Brasil.
Fluefiskeren
21.09.2023 kl 15:03 3413

Da blir det minst fire liftings i Gabon i Q4. Panoro skal også ha en.
gunnarius
21.09.2023 kl 14:54 3366

Det sier seg selv, BWE kan ikke tillate seg å stenge ned flere Hibiscus brønner samtidig.

Nå må selskapet bare kjøre på videre og ferdigstille boreprogrammet med de 6 H/R brønnene.

Løfteskjemaet - og som tilfaller BWE foreligger. 3xløftinger i Q4, med 2x650.000 og 1x950.000 fat, sistnevnte ved den tid første Ruche brønn kommer online i november.

Markedet kan aldri vite om det oppstår uønskede hendelser offshore. Dette kan skje med alle O&G selskap.

Gitt den første Ruche brønnen kommer online med suksess, kan BWE tillate seg å ha stengt ned 1 stk. Hibiscus brønn kontinuerlig og samtidig innfri løfting per måned med 950.000 fat.
Redigert 21.09.2023 kl 15:01 Du må logge inn for å svare
General T
21.09.2023 kl 12:34 3323

Dream on. BWE don't exactly have a good reputation for sharing bad news, and whoever said this is a short term issue, I can't see what this is based on. On the plus, BWE are starting to spread the risk with other sources of income, although not without risk as well. Until they start turning a significant profit and possibly paying dividends, I can't see the share price rising much. Q3 will be exciting but we've been expecting a Qx trigger for some time now.
gunnarius
21.09.2023 kl 11:07 3403

BWE har nå en fin mix, både olje og gass - alt fra tungolje til kondensat.

Kanskje det aller viktigste - selskapet slipper i det store og hele å gå omveien rundt tradisjonell leteboring. I Gabon kan det bli noe leteboring, men i Brasil bør selskapet være på relativt trygg grunn.

Selskapet er etter mitt syn ideelt lokalisert og med god mix. Noe risk i Gabon, ikke nødvendigvis for pågående produksjon og som inngått basert på PSC-kontrakt modellen og Hydrocarbon Code, men nye kontrakter som eventuelt skal inngås.

Slik det hele har utviklet seg i Namibia, er det nå myndighetene som presser på med Kudu gassen - og BWE kan innta en noe mer avslappet holdning.

Jeg forventer mye mer av ny Brasil deal, enn hva BWE så langt har presentert.

Hentet fra Petrobras teaser av januar 2020, så kan man selv se at Petrobras guider med drøyt 2 år for å få tilleggsprosjektene opp å stå. BWE har så langt skissert 2026 og det er altfor passivt. Kanskje BWE trenger til en partner for å få fart på det hele - tiden vil vise.

Se f.eks. Stage 2 på Golfinho - og positivt om selskapet evner øke produksjonen på Golfinho. Men det blir for lite ambisiøst, ettersom Petrobras så for seg en mer aggressiv bore- og utbyggingstakt. :

 Golfinho In-Fill Drilling – Stage 2: construction and connection of 3 new producing wells, in order to achieve an oil
production peak of 29.5 Mbbl/d in 2022.

 Brigadeiro project: construction and connection of 1 new producing gas and condensate well, in order to achieve an
additional production peak of 1.7 MMm³/d of gas and 5.6 Mboe/d of condensate in 2023.

 Other projects, such as the 4-GLF-31 replacement well project and the Golfinho In-Fill Drilling – Stage 3

 Petrobras is currently in a procedure with ANP to reduce the royalty terms for the incremental production from the InFill Drilling – Stage 2 project, which may bring additional value to the assets

Og for Camarupim- gass, trolig med tie-back FPSO CdV:

Camarupim Development Plan

1. Opportunity Description – Package 2 – Camarupim Cluster

 Production started in 2009 and was interrupted in 2015 after the FPSO Cidade de São Mateus accident

 The Package includes subsea facilities present on site, used in the original development plan. As the FPSO is no
longer in the location, it is not included in the Potential Transaction

 High quality output:

 Mostly natural gas and condensate (46 ºAPI)

 Unitization process has been held and approved by ANP, as the fields comprises of one single reservoir

 Petrobras will offer the possibility of a gas & condensate off-take agreement for the potential investor

 Potential synergies with Golfinho Cluster include the utilization of Golfinho’s gas pipeline

 Utilization of Golfinho’s 12’’ gas pipeline

 First gas is expected in January 2023, with estimated production peak of 1.5 to 1.6 MMm³/d

https://brazilenergyinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Teaser-Polos-Golfinho-Camarupim-Ingles.pdf

Kun et utdrag av essensen. Her har BWE virkelig en jobb å gjøre, men det er absolutt ikke for sent. Trolig vil en del falle på plass raskere enn BWE så langt har guidet - i påvente en partner?.



Redigert 21.09.2023 kl 11:18 Du må logge inn for å svare
Fluefiskeren
21.09.2023 kl 09:50 3530

Is it OK for you if I take a copy of parts of this and paste it into the PEN discussion?
Redigert 21.09.2023 kl 09:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
Fluefiskeren
21.09.2023 kl 09:37 3556

Jeg ser at Bourdon er tegnet inn annerledes enn tidligere. Nå virker det mer sammenhengende med prospekt A, og andelen Gamba er blitt mye større. Det er gunstig.

Sammenlign side 7 i gårsdagens presentasjon med side 11 her.

https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/044e22e1-a3d6-4d95-b149-7f74f5e50e78
hulabalula
21.09.2023 kl 08:24 3692

From the Pareto conference

On Dussafu:
Both Carl Arnett and John Hamilton were very clear in their presentations. This is not a concern. The "coup" (Hamilton hesitated even using the word) was basically a continuation of the old system but with a new leader at the top ("and Ali Bongo was being treated well"). The way they know this is by looking at the people who have been put in place: It's the old guard.
Hamilton believes we are only at the very early stages of what this asset will ultimately produce. Both companies spoke about continued discussions on whether to use the exploration option. I got the sense that an exploration well at Hibiscus South is almost a given. Why there? Because the Hibiscus reservoir has been performing above expectation. If a second exploration well gets added it will likely be on Bourdon (Prospect B). Overall the main message was yes, the ESP issues are a drag, but it is fixable, while poor reservoir quality cannot be fixed.
I spoke to Linn Espey later on and he said it is a rather new system that is also used by Chevron, who have not experienced many issues with it. They are having a dialogue and trying to learn more. BWE may try to shut down one well completely in order to get more data. The reason they chose this new system was to avoid what used to be the issue with ESPs: Many failures 3-4 years down the line. In hindsight that would have been preferred to what is happening now! On the other hand, maybe there will be benefit from these new ones in the longer run if the issue can be identified and fixed going forward.

On Golfinho:
An eye-opener: They think there is a chance they can squeeze out 30-40% more per day, which would put us into 13k-14k/d territory? This was said during the presentation. I spoke to management afterwards and wish I had asked for more detail on this. The how, the why, the when, if it would take additional costs etc. My sense was that the reason they believe it is that having been down for more than 12 months the reservoir has repressurized potentially giving more juice. We will see how this pans out in the upcoming quarters.
Gas from Camarupim is likely a 2025/2026 story from my understanding. The priority here and now is to get the production up and opex down via more barrels.

On Kudu:
During the presentation Carl Arnett said "potentially our best asset" and you've all seen the wording in the new slides: "Significantly increases the probability of further
Kudu resources". From my understanding it is a combo of what they can glean from the seismic so far and what is going on in neighboring fields as well. We also discussed the electricity situation in Namibia afterwards. So far South Africa hasn't missed a delivery to Namibia yet, but if it happens even once, it will likely expedite matters and be game on even quicker.

Some other points of discussion:
- The prepayment facility is NOT based on a discount to Brent as I had thought. Instead it is structured more like a bank loan with an interest rate of 4.5% annually + Libor (I think it was Libor, not a 100% sure but something that is at around 5% now). Seems like a good deal to me.
- If Maromba goes ahead it will probably not be a 2-phased approach but all in one go at reduced capex overall compared to the initial 2-phased approach. (I would still prefer a partner here if all possible)
- The grander strategy: Invest when others are not, harvest when others are investing. Straight out of the Andreas-Sohmen Pao playbook. He also spoke at the introduction event where I wasn't present. But I learned that he was not happy about the Oslo Exchange given how companies are valued there vs the US exchanges. Maybe he was referring to shipping companies mainly, but to my mind it doesn't seem like a far-fetched thought that a US listing for BWE could be in the cards at some point.

I spoke to all three in management (as well as John Hamilton, briefly) and they were all generous with their time, which is a good sign, especially at a time where we have extra concerns following the political situation. They were not guarded at all in their answers. Instead they all came off just like in the conference calls: Very approachable and frank.
Redigert 21.09.2023 kl 08:25 Du må logge inn for å svare
gunnarius
20.09.2023 kl 23:29 3895

Hva jeg nå bringer til torgs er kun observasjoner og tenkehatten er satt på. Må ikke legges til grunn i en direkte investeringssammenheng i BW Energy.

Vet ikke hva med dere andre, men ble litt overrasket at selskapet ifm. den årlige Pareto konferansen knaller til med å fokusere på muligheter, hvor selskapet i fjor hadde strategi som emne.

2022 Pareto presentasjonen:

Business approach - Differentiated strategy • Acquire existing resources with low exploration cost and risk • Use of repurposed existing energy infrastructure to execute phased, fast-track developments  Reduced cost, shorter time to production and lower risk  Reduced environmental footprint • Operatorship with high level of control of each asset

https://www.bwenergy.no/siteassets/blocks/bw-energy-pareto-conference-2022.pdf

2023 Pareto presentasjonen:

Attractive business landscape - Opportunities • Prices for existing hydrocarbon assets remain attractive ‒ Brownfield divestments ‒ Inventory of discovered but undeveloped resources ‒ Private Equity exits

https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/4f4517df-0db1-4aff-8d85-867168e89df1

Det er entydige paralleller mellom I fjor og I år, men like fullt en distinkt forskjell. I fjor heter det Business approach - Strategy og i år Business landscape - Opportunities. CFO Sæthre presenterte på konferansen i fjor og CEO Arnet i år.

Man kan ikke legge for mye vekt på variasjonen, men den kan faktisk si oss ganske så mye. Selskapet ivrer etter å vokse.

Dussafu er langt på vei på plass.

Kudu går sin gang med offtaker etc. Ser ikke for meg at BWE går i gang med enorme investeringsforpliktelser/kostnader, utover hva som foreløpig er investert. Selskapet foretar ikke FID med mindre myndighetene er med på spleiselaget eller øvrige private investorer deltar. Også en mulighet med andre land i Afrika som kan delta, herav Sør Afrika.

Det er først og fremst Maromba som bringer tanken inn på om BWE allerede nå ser for seg noe innen M&A. Imidlertid bedyrte CEO Arnet ifm. Q2, at prinsippet: «Bruden måtte være pynta», måtte gjelde. Nå har BWE endret/revidert utbyggingskonsept. BWE forsøker å skaffe funding og vil trolig lande noe her package(s). Dette kan være tilstrekkelig til at BWE selger seg noe ned eller inngår et eller annet innen M&A som kan medføre – kanskje en byttehandel?

Dersom noen vil være med på BWEs Namibia eventyr. Med mulighet for olje - er med ny 3D seismikk - tiden moden.

Ser ikke noen umiddelbar endring ifm. Dussafu. Dette vil trolig være hoved pengemaskinen fremover. For å sikre drift, alle forpliktelsene og videre/nye investeringer.

BWE har allerede skapt store verdier og er kommet langt i vekstprosessen. Nå begynner det å bli aktuelt med øvrige grep innen M&A. Markedet har egentlig ventet på at BWE selger seg noe ned eller foretar en byttehandel. Faktisk kan BWE kjøpe nye assets også, men dette mener jeg vil kreve for mye kapital, utover hva som ligger i potten i dag. Men kan skje. Jeg har ikke nevnt ny Brasil/Golfinho deal. Vil BWE ha full guffe på flere in-fills og Camarupim gassen, så kan BWE inngå samarbeid med andre. Hva som særlig utpeker seg her er at BWE øker eierandelen i BM-ES-23 (Brigadeiro/Quindim) med gass og kondensat. Vil kreve mye kapital. Synes BWE agerer for passivt ifm. ny Brasil deal og kan tyde på at det må en brikke eller to til på plass, for at selskapet melder sin egentlige agenda..

Tiden begynner etter mitt syn å bli overmoden – et eller annet innen M&A – nytt oppkjøp/byttehandel/nedsalg (Kudu/Maromba/ny Brasil deal), vil ikke overraske meg.
Redigert 21.09.2023 kl 00:04 Du må logge inn for å svare
Fluefiskeren
20.09.2023 kl 16:12 4092

Men intet nytt om ESPene er kanskje godt nytt. Det betyr nok at de jobber med saken for å løse den uten bruk av rigg. Har forståelse for at dette kan ta sin tid. Heldigvis blir ikke olja borte i mellomtiden.
hulabalula
20.09.2023 kl 15:49 4123

That’s about the only non-bullish item: no news there… They are still contemplating how to solve it. In spite of that there will be three liftings in Q4 but two of them will be on the smaller side (ie only one will be a Suezmax lifting).
gunnarius
20.09.2023 kl 15:19 4063

hulabalula - thanks a lot!

Later, did they mention ESP (wireline) or workover (rig)?

hulabalula
20.09.2023 kl 14:54 4108

I was at the BWE presentation in Oslo today and I have to say I came away even more bulled up than previously. Part of the reason can be seen by the pdf slides from today that everybody have seen but there was additional info on all three assets which was new to me and which I will go into later today, if I have some time over, or else tomorrow.
solb
20.09.2023 kl 12:29 4184

Lurer på om de har fått anomali i Hauterivian-formasjonen?
Fluefiskeren
20.09.2023 kl 11:42 3994

Tenkte det samme selv, men godt vi er flere om det. Flere meninger?
Kristoballs
20.09.2023 kl 11:40 3978

Vanskelig å si med sikkerhet, men det er fristende å tenke at dette er nye prospekter som de har definert ut fra den nye seismikken.

• Additional opportunities already identified
Fluefiskeren
20.09.2023 kl 11:25 3987

Kan noen forklare meg hva de røde områdene på kartet av Kudu på side 14 i presentasjonen betyr?
gunnarius
20.09.2023 kl 11:08 3873

solb, fornektelse og trass i markedet. Neste trinn i "de fire sorgfasene" blir aksept og forløsning. Man må bare la psykologien få råde, så kommer fjerde og siste trinn - aksept og forløsning.

Det synes som om BWE er på oppløpet ifm. funding av Maromba. Dette sa CEO Arnet mer om ifm. Q2 CC, Q&A bolken. Dvs. package(s) som de holdt på å sette i sammen. Meldes finansiering – fullt eller delt - vil være en trigger i aksjen. BWE aksjen hemmes mest sannsynlig av dette utestående moment.

• Final investment decision remains subject to conclusion of project financing

Drilling campaign Golfinho – gammelt nytt?

Fra presentasjonen i dag:

• Prepare Golfinho infill well campaign

Fra BNamericas:
BW Energy plans to begin Brazil drilling campaign in March

BnamericasPublished: Monday, January 16, 2023

According to one of the sources, BW has already hired offshore vessels to support its Golfinho campaign and will use a logistics base in Espírito Santo state capital Vitória to support the works.

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/bw-energy-plans-to-begin-brazil-drilling-campaign-in-march

Min påstand er den samme: BWE lar ikke Golfinho fortsette med decline i oljeproduksjon og relativt høy OPEX, med mindre det blir 1 stk- in-fill med olje og 1 stk. in-fill med gass asap, jf. drilling campaign som jeg tror ikke drøyer lenge til før BWE melder.

Ditto hva angår tappe Camarupim gassen og tie-back FPSO CdV, men først borekampanjen Golfinho.

Dagens presentasjon – musikk i mine ører. Her blir det penger, mye penger!
Redigert 20.09.2023 kl 11:12 Du må logge inn for å svare