The COO on the call:

"I am quite confident we will see at least one hospital contract signed already this quarter."

Biovica has strange quarter systems Q2 is Aug-Oct

CEO on the Q1 call just now:

we have made very good progress in non-dilutive capital raising process since the Q4 call

the CEO on the call right now:

"we have already made the first sales in the US"

"we are about to sign a first hospital agreement within near future and sign 10 withing the fiscal year"

The CEO repeated several times - "first hospital contract to be signed in the very near future and 10 contracts (based on our pipeline) should be signed by the end of our fiscal year (July 24)"

I do not understand the share price fall today. Too high expectations, probably.

The call was very positive. Biovica has achieved insurance coverage first by Medicare (50% of all US breast cancer patients) and then by 3 Very large US private insurance companies. That secured funding for the cure.

The second step is to contract with hospitals. Both the CEO and the head of America sales said repeatedly: "We will sign the first hospital this quarter, and we expect to sign ten hospitals/hospital chains by the end of the year, based on our current pipeline.

All very positive report

Redeye: Biovica is approaching the first direct contract

Biovica has signed three commercial agreements during Q1 but has not yet
completed any of the direct contract with hospital chains (or Hospital networks).
Biovica confirms that it is in the late stage of signing several direct contracts with US
hospital chains which is our view is the next important milestone for Biovica. The
PLA code is a major achievement and the code is active as from 1 October and the
next step is to establish a related price which could be in place by the end of this
calendar year.

Full research report:

https://www.redeye.se/api/articles/download-file/e32974a1-41e9-38cf-b76f-29e55398b15f

Biovica: The Most Disruptive Company Among Scandi Pharma
Biovica has the potential to change the way the Breast Cancer is treated and newly also change the way cancer drugs are developed.

Biomarker testing is the future of the Cancer treatments. Biovica is the global pioneer and is leading the company in the area. It has the first FDA-approved cancer biomarker test for Breast cancer. The product launch is in full speed.

Biovica´s breast cancer test has great utility for the patients as well as the costs of the treatment costs. Biovica biomarker breast cancer test can detect cancer progression at least 60 days earlier than imaging. And 3-10 times cheaper.

Great progress in the last 12 months:

FDA Approval secured in July 2022
Medicare reimbursment PLA code (needed for Medicare reimbursement) obtained last quarter – Medicare covers 50% of US breast cancer patients. The reimbursements using this code will start on 1 October 2023.
Three private insurance companies contracted that cover millions of US patients signed up this quarter.
The first US sales recorded this quarter.
The first reimbursements from Medicare were processed in the quarter.
Why Q1 call result in 20% share price drop:

The market expectations were too high.
The market expected higher revenues and possibly the first hospital contract announcement
What the market did not hear?

There were very strong statements by the CEO, the head of the US sales, and the head of the pharma projects
“We will sign the first hospital contract in the very near future during this quarter”
“We will sign at least 10 hospital contracts during this year. Our hospital contract pipeline supports this”
“The hospital contracts often mean contracts with hospital chains with 15 hospitals or so.”
“We expect US sales to pick up in our third quarter”
“During the second half of the year, I also expect to see a major contribution to our sales from Europe”
“We are working with pharma companies. that are developing new cancer drugs. During the summer, we signed yet another agreement with a new customer and started up several new projects. We are anticipating higher revenue from that already during this financial year.”
“A great deal of work has gone into securing good funding over the summer, and we have several alternatives that we are in the process of finalizing. The significant progress we have made in the various commercial areas in recent months is certainly a positive contributor to this process.”
“We are not paying for the Yale study. We should receive a payment for this.” – The University is testing how taking more medications affects treatment effectiveness – Yale is using Biovica´s TKa to measure the effects.
Valuation

In my experience, past trading range indicates share price potential. To illustrate – if a stock had a trading range of USD10 – USD100 and is now trading at USD 20, you have based on the historical trading range USD10 downside and 80 USD upside. This means 8:1 profit/loss potential.

Biovica is making great progress. It is in the best position it ever has. Despite that, it is trading at the bottom of its historical trading range. See the below graph of the market capitalization to illustrate. The graph shows 5 times upside potential and limited downside.


Strong catalysts ahead

There are strong catalysts ahead:

Announcement of the first hospital contract – this would be a major confidence rubber stamp for the company. The same way Medicare was this quarter.
PLA Coder reimbursement – 1St October 23
Start of the US sales 3Q23
European sales – second half of 2023
Securing of funding – second half of 2023
What is the market missing

The market is not appreciating the importance of pharma collaborations. Pharma companies are contracting with Biovica to provide them with specific essays that the pharma companies will be using to test their new cancer medications. It has three important implications for the company and its investors:

Biovica will change the way cancer treatments are developed – the costs for the development will be reduced and the testing will be faster
It is a great vote of confidence in Biovica´s product. Pharma companies will be using Biovica for testing their new products. What stronger rubber stamp could anybody want?
Material revenue stream – per unit costs of those tests must be materially higher than tests for the public. The company says that it has 18 projects with Tier 1, 2, and 3-sized pharma companies. Biovica predicts this will be a material revenue stream for the company already this year.
Despite the above, no analysts have focused much on the above. It is not reflected in the share price.

Summary

FULL INVESTMENT IDEA SUMMARY:
HTTPS://FITINVESTMENTIDEAS.COM/2023/09/11/BIOVICA-THE-MOST-DISRUPTIVE-COMPANY-AMONG-SCANDI-PHARMA/

#BIOVICA #BREASTCANCERINNOVATION #FUTUREOFMEDICINE #PHARMACOLLABORATION

Biovica CEO is presenting tomorrow at Pareto conference

Biovica, one of the most interesting Scandi pharma company, is presenting today at 11.00 at the Redeye conference.

Free to attend online:

https://www.redeye.se/events/915984/redeye-life-science-day-2023?utm_source=MB&utm_medium=introtext&tab=schedule