Par kommer med oppdatert kursmål idag på 16 kroner.
22 kroner var kanskje ikke så edruelig mhp dette året.
Men kan jo skje ting ila 2-3 år.

Er det så lurt å sitte på aksjer i et lite oljeselskap som har størsteparten av sin produksjon i del av verden hvor eksplosjoner og rakettangrep er nesten blitt en del av daglig livet. Hvor lenge og hva skal til for å få varig fred i regionen? Tenker potensielle aksjekjøpet for tiden velger andre aksjer om de kan.

Ja,hehe, for nå er det bare shorterne som skal kjøpe for å dekke inn

Kjøp for det dere har, og ikke selg, og hjelp shortsvina som ikke får den billig nok nå

Iraq PM: 'Council of Ministers working on assessment of changes to budget, so they can pay IOCs. They have an issue with cost of oil production. Negotiations ongoing to resolve issues, but no official agreement yet'.

Ser noe prøver på å dumpe den videre ned i dag men ikke mye som skal til for å få den opp en krone og to nå. Avtalen virker å være rett rundt hjørne nå.

Det er nok litt motvind nå med flere nedjusteringer av kursmål. Men det fundamentale er bedre enn for noen måneder siden, ettersom DNO er i nærheten av normal produksjon i Kurdistan. Marginene kunne vært bedre, men det kunne også aksjekursen. Jeg vil tro aksjekursen stiger en del fram mot utbytte i andre halvdel av februar, men ex.dato er det ikke så mange ukene til.

Fordi det er nesten ikke priset noen verdi på driften i Kurdistan, men gjennom 10 år har de vist at de til slutt tjener veldig mye derfra. Selv med ustabile forhold så å si kontinuerlig. De trenger ikke varig fred får å få ut god cash flow.

Men én aksje for folk som tåler å sitte med litt svingninger og risiko, greit nok.

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Ja, får iallefall tro på at utbyttet fortsatt er 0.25 eller høyere. Iallefall ikke lavere enn 0.25. Da begynner aksjen å bli ganske attraktiv på kun utbytte. (11% direkte avkastning på dagens kurs)

Tviler på at det kommer utbytte , de tjener mye mindre etter rørledningen ble stoppet, ikke er det en snarlig løsning heller. Blir overrasket hvis de opprettholder utbytte i dagens situasjon.

De er jo nesten i full produksjon i Kurdistan så utbytte skulle gå som normalt.

Han har for all del teknisk rett at de tjente en god del før nedstengningen. I løpet av 2022 så økte net cash beholdningen med hele $550m, tilsvarende 6kr pr aksje.

Men nå trenger de ikke tjene 6kr pr aksje for å kunne betale ut 1kr pr aksje i utbytte heldigvis.
3kr pr aksje er mer enn bra nok :) Har tilogmed råd til å slenge inn et tilbakekjøpsprogram og fortsatt ha mulighet til å spare inn penger for å finansiere utbyggingene av funnene i Nordsjøen.
Må nesten også nevne at de idag sitter med en net cash beholdning på $140m.

Så over $300 miljoner dollar Kurdistan skylder DNO.., hvor det nå ender.

Så får de pengene fra Kurdistan så sitter de på nesten 5 kr pr aksje og vi ligger på 9 kr. Helt utrolig hvordan dette prises

Utbytte kommer. Og spørsmålet blir hvor mye det øker fra 0.25 når en skriver 31.12.24

Ska se at mossa gjør oss til "oligarker" til slutt ;-)

Ja heilt utrolig, fortsetter håpe på høyere utbytten fremover når pipe er tilbake eller kanskje før det hvis DNO ordner s k lokalsalg med alt bedre betaling.

Tilbakekjøp burde skje nå!

https://www.kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/250386
:Tensions in the Red Sea will accelerate an agreement between Iraq and Turkey to resume oil exports from the port of Ceyhan, an international research center said in a report.The London-based Center for International Development Studies has released a report on Red Sea tensions and global oil prices, saying the threat of the Houthis in the Red Sea has increased the cost of transporting oil and other goods by 100 percent To accelerate the resumption of oil exports from the port of Ceyhan.

Akkurat det samme som jeg tenkte en stund siden
Men dette vil ta tid uansett tror jeg
Jeg satser at det blir ikke ett år med stans. Så vi nærnerer seg🤣

Tenkte i utgangspunktet at åpningen vil sammenfalle med at kuttene fra Opec går ut i 1. kvartal, men kan jo fort hende at problemene ved Rødehavet fremskynder det litt. At Irak heller velger å redusere eksporten sør.

Gode Nyheter
Sounds as though agreement has been reached and what remains is for the relevant budget amendment to be approved by parliament.

Draw Media - The price of oil production in the Kurdistan Region will be adjusted.

Foreign companies in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRG) are demanding $20 per barrel of oil from the Iraqi government, according to a member of the Oil and Gas Committee in the Iraqi parliament, an agreement has been reached and the process of exporting oil from the Kurdistan Region should resume.

Sabah Subhi, a member of the Iraqi Parliament's Oil and Gas Committee, said there is a clear prospect for the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region.

"The only main obstacle to the resumption of oil exports is to remove the issue of oil costs," Sabah Subhi, a member of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) faction, told the party's official website.

“Iraq has set a price of $6.80 per barrel for oil extraction. This is a big injustice for oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region, because the working environment in the region is different from the lower and central Iraq. It is different in terms of the cost of oil extraction and the type of contracts. Their contracts are service contracts and ours are partnerships,” said Sabah Subhi.

"The price of oil should be adjusted from $6.80 to about $20 with the amendment of the budget law. For this purpose, the companies have met with the Iraqi Oil Ministry and made the proposal to Iraq," he said "It is up to the Iraqi government to resolve the issue if it agrees to include the budget amendment."

Turkey has suspended oil exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRG) since March 25, 2023, following a decision by the Paris Arbitration Court He has imposed a regime on Turkey.

After nearly 10 months of suspension of oil exports, Turkey has now agreed to resume oil exports, as Sabah Subhi said, "What remains is to amend the budget law and resume oil exports, the budget law is scheduled to be amended next month."

In the federal budget law, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has agreed to deliver 400,000 barrels of oil per day to the Iraqi Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) and the oil revenues will go directly to the federal treasury The Kurdistan Region should receive its share of the federal budget.
Since the end of June 2023, the Iraqi budget law for three years (2023-2024-2025) came into force, and since then controversy has erupted about the provisions related to the Kurdistan Region, the Kurdistan Regional Government objected to the price The budget law for oil production and transportation.

Noen som har et fornuftig regnestykke med 20$

Dette er utfordrende, og hvor lang tid vil det ta når vi ser hvor lenge det har vært nedstengt?

The only main obstacle to the resumption of oil exports is to remove the issue of oil costs," Sabah Subhi, a member of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) faction, told the party's official website

Dette er jo løst nå med 20 dollar men skal vedtas i parlamentet neste måned. Vi får se på mandag hva markedet tror og mulig Reuters kommer med noe som er pålitelig.

Spennende, men det skal som sagt godkjennes/stemmes over i parlamentet, så får vi håpe på godkjenning .

Bare prat og atter prat, ikke noe og forholde seg til noe av det de sier,

Prat og Prat de har jo løst en del de siste månedene også først Tyrkia dette var jo et vanskelig i og med dommen og potensielt problemer rundt dette
Videre så var det et problem mellom kurderen og Bagdad der de ikke godkjente avtalene + masse andre ting.
Så til slutt når oljeselskapene ikke ville produsere til eksport før de fikk en avtale om betaling, Så dette har jo ikke vært en enkel sak og ikke umulig at det kan dukke opp enda en ukjent problemstilling.
Men når dette ordner seg så er det jo en mulighet for at verdiene som Dno har blir priset på en annen måte siden det er enighet med Bagdad noe mange har ment aldri kom til å skje
Stemmer det at det er enighet og dette skal til avstemming så er jo dette veldig positivt for de som har aksjer.

Denne hesten er en vinner. Estimatene tilsier at det blir en rekyl i oljesektoren fremover. Verden trenger olje. OPEC peker på økt etterspørsel i 2024

Får bare håpe at ikkje SA oversvømmer markedet igjen, for å danke ut USA. Litt typisk at nedturene til DNO forsterkes av andre upåvirkelige effekter. Så denne snur nok ikkje opp med det første.

Dno får jo sine $20 uansett da så denne bekymringen er unødvendig.
Avtalen er på plass så vi får vente til i morgen å se. Som det står i artikkelen så er eneste hindringen som var igjen produksjons kost å den er det en enighet om nå.

Alt er dessverre ikke rosenrødt i regionen. Den fortjente oppturen kan fortsatt være litt unna:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68045254

Dette er jo langt fra Dno men krigsrisikoen er jo høy over alt nå

Ikke noen skatt første $20, deretter ok skatt opp til $70 og høy over det. Er dette korrekt? Finner ikke avtalen nå men husker noe lignende i Irak. Blir raskt milliarder net.

Rudaw 13 minutes ago - "KRG to brief oil producers on talks with Baghdad."

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The natural resources ministry of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has invited international oil companies working in the Region to meet on Wednesday to discuss progress in talks with the federal government about resuming oil exports, Rudaw has learned.

Erbil and Baghdad have held numerous meetings since a ruling by a Paris-based arbitration court last March suspended the flow of Kurdish oil to international markets. International Oil Companies (IOCs) operating in the Kurdistan Region have not been invited to most of the talks.

“The purpose of the meeting is to update you regarding the progress of the negotiations with the Federal Government of Iraq in matters that concern you and other IOC partners. The amendments of the 2023 budget law and the subject of compensation for the IOC’s entitlements will be the main topics of the discussion. We will welcome your insights and suggestions during these discussions,” read an email sent to the IOCs by the ministry and which Rudaw English has seen.

Myles Caggins, spokesperson for the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR), an umbrella group of oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region, confirmed to Rudaw English that the companies are looking forward to the discussion.

“APIKUR member companies look forward to continued progress and discussions to resume full oil production and exports to global markets,” he said.

In December, APIKUR said that it had been excluded from negotiations between the KRG and Baghdad. “APIKUR member companies - which represent the majority of the oil produced by IOCs in Kurdistan - have neither been included in these meetings nor been invited to participate in any future meetings between the KRG and GoI [Government of Iraq],” it stated.

Exports of the Kurdistan Region’s oil through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have been halted since March 23 when the Paris-based arbitration court ruled in favor of Baghdad against Ankara, saying Turkey had breached a 1973 agreement by allowing Erbil to begin independent oil exports in 2014.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani told Bloomberg last week that the main obstacle before the resumption of the oil exports is that the OICs “have an issue with the cost of producing barrels.”

Before the halt, around 400,000 barrels a day were being exported by Erbil through Ankara, in addition to some 75,000 barrels of Kirkuk’s oil.

The loss in oil revenues, the KRG’s main source of income, has worsened the financial situation and left the government unable to pay its public sector without assistance from Baghdad.

Sitter i denne og kjøper mer hvis den faller ytterligere. Men jeg selger med en gang den kommer over 13. ser for meg masse trøbbel for oljeprisen i 2024

Her er linken.
https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/210120245

Positivt med møter, men mange møter er blitt holdt så langt. APIKUR er invitert, noe de savnet tidligere. Man vet ikke om det blir løst med det første, men fint med status.

Som ble uttalt sist uke.;

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani told Bloomberg last week that the main obstacle before the resumption of the oil exports is that the OICs “have an issue with the cost of producing barrels.”

Flinke til å prate men det stopper der. Ikke ta disse seriøst, det har vi jo nå lært .

January 21, 2024
VANCOUVER, BC, January 22, 2024 /CNW/ - ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. (“ShaMaranR21; or the “Company”;) (TSXV: SNM) (Nasdaq First North: SNM) has entered into definitive agreements for a two-step transaction to increase its indirect working interest in the Atrush Block in Kurdistan from 27.6% to 50%, with HKN Energy IV, Ltd. (“HKN IV”), an affiliate of HKN Energy Ltd. (“HKN”), indirectly acquiring a 25% working interest and operatorship, subject to required approvals. View PDF

Garrett Soden, President and CEO of ShaMaran, commented: “This transaction continues ShaMaran’s consolidation strategy in Kurdistan. We are acquiring TAQA’s 47.4% interest in Atrush and selling a 25% interest and operatorship to HKN IV. ShaMaran and HKN are already co-venturers in the adjoining Sarsang block operated by HKN. We look forward to working together at Atrush to realize significant synergies on both blocks.”

In the first step of the transaction, ShaMaran’s wholly-owned Cayman subsidiary, General Exploration Partners, Inc. (“GEP”), entered into an agreement with TAQA International B.V. (“TIBV”), a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Energy Company PJSC (“TAQA”), to acquire TAQA Atrush B.V. (“TABV”) (“Step 1”). TABV is a Dutch holding company with a 47.4% working interest and operatorship in the Atrush Production Sharing Contract in Kurdistan (“Atrush PSC”). Step 1 is subject to customary closing conditions for a share sale and purchase agreement in the Netherlands and customary stock exchange approvals in Canada.

At closing of Step 1, HKN IV will begin operating Atrush on a fee basis in contemplation of the second step of the transaction. The appointment of HKN IV as operator is subject to review by the Ministry of Natural Resources in Kurdistan.

In the second step of the transaction, TABV will transfer a 25% working interest in the Atrush PSC to GEP2, a new Cayman wholly-owned subsidiary of GEP. In parallel, GEP has entered into an agreement to sell GEP2 to HKN IV for nominal consideration such that HKN IV will hold a 25% working interest and operatorship in the Atrush PSC (“Step 2”). The sale of GEP2 to HKN IV will be subject to approval by the Kurdistan Regional Government (“KRG”).

After closing the above transaction steps, the Atrush Block will have the following parties: GEP 50%, HKN IV (through GEP2) 25% and KRG 25%.

omåns
Det er jo dette det er blitt enighet om som Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani ikke var enighet om i sist uke.

funkis
Fint om du limer inn linker direkte, da opptar det ikke så mye plass i diskusjonen og en følger reglene til forumet mtp kilde henvisning og innliming av tekst.
Ja alle ønsker løsning, men har ikke kommet melding til børs om noe oppstart av eksporten.