Ser mer ut som en TP på 0.73

Fearnley Research Summary from today:

3q23 was the quarter where the final pieces of the puzzle were put together. All vessels are now in operation, with 4q23 poised to be the first fully operational quarter in the company’s history. Adjusting 3q23 numbers for incurred XO costs such as legal costs and fees, EBITDA almost broke even, coming in at NOK -1m (legal fees of NOK 35m booked in other opex). Looking into 4q23, we hike our occupancy estimate somewhat to 59% (56%) on the back of decent bookings QTD, though, higher costs leave our EBITDA estimate slightly down 3% to NOK 40m.

HKY is largely a 2024 story, and considering strong pre-bookings of 45%, the company is arguably on track to reach our occupancy estimate of 75% for the year. This should alleviate some pressure on the 4q24 Tranche B maturity (albeit 100% guaranteed by largest shareholder). Moreover, with all four vessels in full operations, contractual revenues will now rise. We maintain our Buy recommendation and keep our TP to NOK 1.80/sh unchanged (NOK 1.80/sh, 03.10.2023)

Litt for mange feil på de skip der at aksjekursen skal bevege seg oppover.

Tipper det utgjør en bra kjøpsmulighet. Og ikke minst trolig en nyttårsrakett

Trader Svein Egil Larsen har kjøpt nesten 900 000 aksjer de siste dagene.... det bør være et bra kjøpssignal

Han selger når du lokker andre til å kjøpe, inkl han selv listen for 2 dager siden viser at denne fyren bare sitter å hausser og får andre til å kjøpe mens han selv selger: HKY SELACO AS -78.371 777.443 0,1

Mulig det, men Fredriksen, Fredly, Falnes, Midelfart og Skorstad har økt siste mnd

Dei er ute før du aner det, her kommer en ny emisjon slik jeg har fortstått det. Leser at bare rentekost for Hky stjeler 50% av inntektene og dette er før opex og capex er betalt. En her går en tom for penger utover 2024.

Very interesting article in the Financial Times on 22/12/23 - very bullish for Cruise operators - should help HKY at some point

"Carnival and Royal Caribbean, the two sector leaders, are among the top 10 performers on the S&P 500 this year. Their shares are up 141 per cent and 161 per cent, respectively, while smaller rival Norwegian Cruise Line has gained 77 per cent."

Carnival: plain sailing for cruise operators
DECEMBER 22 2023

Having been nearly sunk by the pandemic, the cruise industry is buoyant again. Carnival and Royal Caribbean, the two sector leaders, are among the top 10 performers on the S&P 500 this year. Their shares are up 141 per cent and 161 per cent, respectively, while smaller rival Norwegian Cruise Line has gained 77 per cent.

Between 2020 and 2022, the three companies collectively lost $50bn as bookings plunged and trips were cancelled. But the industry currently has several things going in its favour.

Experience-based spending — particularly travel — is holding up. Florida-based Carnival this week reported an average 101 per cent occupancy rate during the fourth quarter, compared to 85 per cent last year and 104 per cent in 2019. Net yield, or the revenue per passenger per cruise day, excluding costs, for the period was 6 per cent higher than 2019.

Demand has remained robust, with two-thirds of 2024 occupancy already booked and at considerably higher prices, Carnival said.

Meanwhile, fuel prices have been coming down. Carnival’s fuel cost per metric tonne in 2023 was about 16 per cent lower than 2022. Demographics are also on its side as baby boomers splurge on cruises.

Yet despite the impressive run, only Royal Caribbean is near its pre-pandemic high. Both Carnival and Norwegian remain about two-thirds lower than their peaks.

High debt levels might be giving investors pause. Cruise operators had to borrow heavily during the pandemic. Carnival has about $28.5bn of long-term debt. The $2bn it spent on interest expenses in the fiscal year contributed to the $74mn net loss. Its enterprise value-to-ebitda multiple of 12 times remains substantially higher than its pre-pandemic multiple of around 8 times.

Despite a heavy liabilities load, the cruise industry sails surprisingly smoothly. Improving cash flow enables the industry to pay down its debt. Given this, Carnival will leave remaining pessimists in its wake.

Summary of the Fearnley Research from December 23

All About the Long-Term Story

What’s new: 3q23 review – Buy maintained, TP unchanged at NOK 1.80/sh

Our take: With all four vessels in full operation, contract revenues are set to increase. Strong
2024 pre-bookings mean our 75% occupancy estimate is well within reach.
• Final quarter without all vessels in operations
• Strong 2024 outlook, 45% of capacity already booked
• Contract revenues to increase into 4q23, ’24 looks solid at 7.2x EV/EBITDA

3q23 was the quarter where the final pieces of the puzzle were put together. All
vessels are now in operation, with 4q23 poised to be the first fully operational
quarter in the company’s history. Adjusting 3q23 numbers for incurred XO costs
such as legal costs and fees, EBITDA almost broke even, coming in at NOK -1m (legal
fees of NOK 35m booked in other opex). Looking into 4q23, we hike our occupancy
estimate somewhat to 59% (56%) on the back of decent bookings QTD, though,
higher costs leave our EBITDA estimate slightly down 3% to NOK 40m.

HKY is largely a 2024 story, and considering strong pre-bookings of 45%, the
company is arguably on track to reach our occupancy estimate of 75% for the year.
This should alleviate some pressure on the 4q24 Tranche B maturity (albeit 100%
guaranteed by largest shareholder). Moreover, with all four vessels in full
operations, contractual revenues will now rise. We maintain our Buy
recommendation and keep our TP to NOK 1.80/sh unchanged (NOK 1.80/sh,
03.10.2023).

HAV appoints new CFO - very positive

HAV did not communicate much with its shareholders. The appointment of the new CFO should change that. I heard from the company today that improved market communication should be one of the main roles of the new CFO. POSITIVE

https://www.mynewsdesk.com/havilavoyages/pressreleases/havila-voyages-strengthens-its-management-team-3307407?

Today Announcement:

Operationally, the positive trend in bookings continues, with occupancy for the
first quarter of 2024 ending at 68%, up from 60% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
In total for the year, 63% of capacity is now booked, and an average occupancy
of just under 80% is expected for 2024.

Q1 will be the first ever EBITDA positive Q

HKY kurs siger stille, rolig nesten ubemerket oppover. 0,84 p.t. Fire uker igjen til Q1 rapport. Hvor langt tror vi den kan komme innen Q1 rapport? 1 krone?

Hva skjer i HKY, har ligget stille lenge.

Kan deg være bedre tall på vei ?

HKY reports on Friday. SHould be the first EBITDA positive quarter. Very bullish.

top idea in NOrway this week:
https://fitinvestmentideas.com/2023/10/05/fearnley-and-arctic-bullish-on-havila-kystruten/

FT Today:

Royal Caribian up 80% in last 12 months
Carnival up 35% in the last 12 months

HKY is the next big mover!
Friday should announce the first EBITDA positive quarter

HKY mgmt right now:

We will most likely breakeven on EBITDA in Q2

Today research by Montega today:

Substantial operational improvements behind expectations
but with encouraging trend and positive implications for 2025
Havila Kystruten AS released the figures for Q2 on Thursday, 29th after market close,
and held an earnings call the following day. The occupancy rate in Q2 was below our
expectations, which was the primary factor contributing to the discrepancy in our
forecast. While earnings improvement is slower than initially expected, KPIs are moving
in the right direction and supporting our investment case.
Havila Kystruten AS - Q2 2024 Q2/24 Q2/24e Q2/23 yoy
Operating Revenue 272.4 321.2 128.9 111.2%
Contractual Revenue 96.9 96.9 34.2 124.3%
EBITDA 58.4 92.7-15.3 n.m.
Source: Company, Montega
Operational revenue of 272.4 m NOK in Q2 missed our forecast due to lower than
expected occupancy in the quarter (69% vs. >80%). This shortfall could not be offset by
the higher than anticipated cabin revenue of 5,200 NOK (MONe: ~4,900 NOK). In addition
to the impact of round trip cancellations of Havila Pollux, which we had already
factored in, the north-south route is still experiencing below-average occupancy.
Furthermore, the company is also affected by higher than expected cancellations in
group allotments that have been challenging to re-sell at short notice. This has led
management to lower its full-year occupancy expectations to 75%, down from just
below 80% previously. The lower revenue was the primary factor contributing to the
EBITDA miss, as OPEX remained par with Q1/24 despite slightly higher occupancy (Q1/24:
68%).
Supporting factors for H2 and 2025 ff.: In our initiation report we stated that we believe
Havila's substantial competitive advantages will compound over time. Although we
would have welcomed a steeper earnings development this year we feel obliged to
remind ourselves of this assessment, given the overall encouraging trajectory and the
expectation that some short term constraints will abate in the coming quarters. In the
call, management quantified the negative sales effect from the spillover of
cancellations in 2023 to approx. 60 m NOK, which equates EBITDA in our view.
Additionally, the unfavourable LNG hedging is estimated to have incurred a cost of ca.
20 m NOK in H1. As the company is now able to buy at spot price due to the loosening of
restrictions on its financing agreements, this should support EBITDA in H2. Meanwhile,
bookings for 2025 are developing ahead of expectations which should also be
supported by Havila's inclusion in TIME's annual list of the world's greatest places in
2024.
Change in estimates: We have lowered our projections for 2024 due to the miss in
estimates for Q2 and to reflect the lowered guidance of occupancy for the full year. At
the same time, we are rolling the lower LNG-cost in H2 over to the following years.
Conclusion: Overall, the sequential improvement is encouraging, albeit slower than
initially expected. Q3 looks set to see a further increase in sales and profitability,
providing positive news flow and a foundation for the expected refinancing in 2025,
which should re-rate the share price. We reiterate our Buy rating with a slightly lowered
PT of NOK 2.50.