Ser mer ut som en TP på 0.73

Fearnley Research Summary from today:

3q23 was the quarter where the final pieces of the puzzle were put together. All vessels are now in operation, with 4q23 poised to be the first fully operational quarter in the company’s history. Adjusting 3q23 numbers for incurred XO costs such as legal costs and fees, EBITDA almost broke even, coming in at NOK -1m (legal fees of NOK 35m booked in other opex). Looking into 4q23, we hike our occupancy estimate somewhat to 59% (56%) on the back of decent bookings QTD, though, higher costs leave our EBITDA estimate slightly down 3% to NOK 40m.

HKY is largely a 2024 story, and considering strong pre-bookings of 45%, the company is arguably on track to reach our occupancy estimate of 75% for the year. This should alleviate some pressure on the 4q24 Tranche B maturity (albeit 100% guaranteed by largest shareholder). Moreover, with all four vessels in full operations, contractual revenues will now rise. We maintain our Buy recommendation and keep our TP to NOK 1.80/sh unchanged (NOK 1.80/sh, 03.10.2023)

Litt for mange feil på de skip der at aksjekursen skal bevege seg oppover.

Tipper det utgjør en bra kjøpsmulighet. Og ikke minst trolig en nyttårsrakett

Trader Svein Egil Larsen har kjøpt nesten 900 000 aksjer de siste dagene.... det bør være et bra kjøpssignal

Han selger når du lokker andre til å kjøpe, inkl han selv listen for 2 dager siden viser at denne fyren bare sitter å hausser og får andre til å kjøpe mens han selv selger: HKY SELACO AS -78.371 777.443 0,1

Mulig det, men Fredriksen, Fredly, Falnes, Midelfart og Skorstad har økt siste mnd

Dei er ute før du aner det, her kommer en ny emisjon slik jeg har fortstått det. Leser at bare rentekost for Hky stjeler 50% av inntektene og dette er før opex og capex er betalt. En her går en tom for penger utover 2024.

Very interesting article in the Financial Times on 22/12/23 - very bullish for Cruise operators - should help HKY at some point

"Carnival and Royal Caribbean, the two sector leaders, are among the top 10 performers on the S&P 500 this year. Their shares are up 141 per cent and 161 per cent, respectively, while smaller rival Norwegian Cruise Line has gained 77 per cent."

Carnival: plain sailing for cruise operators
DECEMBER 22 2023

Having been nearly sunk by the pandemic, the cruise industry is buoyant again. Carnival and Royal Caribbean, the two sector leaders, are among the top 10 performers on the S&P 500 this year. Their shares are up 141 per cent and 161 per cent, respectively, while smaller rival Norwegian Cruise Line has gained 77 per cent.

Between 2020 and 2022, the three companies collectively lost $50bn as bookings plunged and trips were cancelled. But the industry currently has several things going in its favour.

Experience-based spending — particularly travel — is holding up. Florida-based Carnival this week reported an average 101 per cent occupancy rate during the fourth quarter, compared to 85 per cent last year and 104 per cent in 2019. Net yield, or the revenue per passenger per cruise day, excluding costs, for the period was 6 per cent higher than 2019.

Demand has remained robust, with two-thirds of 2024 occupancy already booked and at considerably higher prices, Carnival said.

Meanwhile, fuel prices have been coming down. Carnival’s fuel cost per metric tonne in 2023 was about 16 per cent lower than 2022. Demographics are also on its side as baby boomers splurge on cruises.

Yet despite the impressive run, only Royal Caribbean is near its pre-pandemic high. Both Carnival and Norwegian remain about two-thirds lower than their peaks.

High debt levels might be giving investors pause. Cruise operators had to borrow heavily during the pandemic. Carnival has about $28.5bn of long-term debt. The $2bn it spent on interest expenses in the fiscal year contributed to the $74mn net loss. Its enterprise value-to-ebitda multiple of 12 times remains substantially higher than its pre-pandemic multiple of around 8 times.

Despite a heavy liabilities load, the cruise industry sails surprisingly smoothly. Improving cash flow enables the industry to pay down its debt. Given this, Carnival will leave remaining pessimists in its wake.

Summary of the Fearnley Research from December 23

All About the Long-Term Story

What’s new: 3q23 review – Buy maintained, TP unchanged at NOK 1.80/sh

Our take: With all four vessels in full operation, contract revenues are set to increase. Strong
2024 pre-bookings mean our 75% occupancy estimate is well within reach.
• Final quarter without all vessels in operations
• Strong 2024 outlook, 45% of capacity already booked
• Contract revenues to increase into 4q23, ’24 looks solid at 7.2x EV/EBITDA

3q23 was the quarter where the final pieces of the puzzle were put together. All
vessels are now in operation, with 4q23 poised to be the first fully operational
quarter in the company’s history. Adjusting 3q23 numbers for incurred XO costs
such as legal costs and fees, EBITDA almost broke even, coming in at NOK -1m (legal
fees of NOK 35m booked in other opex). Looking into 4q23, we hike our occupancy
estimate somewhat to 59% (56%) on the back of decent bookings QTD, though,
higher costs leave our EBITDA estimate slightly down 3% to NOK 40m.

HKY is largely a 2024 story, and considering strong pre-bookings of 45%, the
company is arguably on track to reach our occupancy estimate of 75% for the year.
This should alleviate some pressure on the 4q24 Tranche B maturity (albeit 100%
guaranteed by largest shareholder). Moreover, with all four vessels in full
operations, contractual revenues will now rise. We maintain our Buy
recommendation and keep our TP to NOK 1.80/sh unchanged (NOK 1.80/sh,
03.10.2023).

HAV appoints new CFO - very positive

HAV did not communicate much with its shareholders. The appointment of the new CFO should change that. I heard from the company today that improved market communication should be one of the main roles of the new CFO. POSITIVE

https://www.mynewsdesk.com/havilavoyages/pressreleases/havila-voyages-strengthens-its-management-team-3307407?

Today Announcement:

Operationally, the positive trend in bookings continues, with occupancy for the
first quarter of 2024 ending at 68%, up from 60% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
In total for the year, 63% of capacity is now booked, and an average occupancy
of just under 80% is expected for 2024.

Q1 will be the first ever EBITDA positive Q

HKY kurs siger stille, rolig nesten ubemerket oppover. 0,84 p.t. Fire uker igjen til Q1 rapport. Hvor langt tror vi den kan komme innen Q1 rapport? 1 krone?

Hva skjer i HKY, har ligget stille lenge.

Kan deg være bedre tall på vei ?

HKY reports on Friday. SHould be the first EBITDA positive quarter. Very bullish.

top idea in NOrway this week:
https://fitinvestmentideas.com/2023/10/05/fearnley-and-arctic-bullish-on-havila-kystruten/

FT Today:

Royal Caribian up 80% in last 12 months
Carnival up 35% in the last 12 months

HKY is the next big mover!
Friday should announce the first EBITDA positive quarter

HKY mgmt right now:

We will most likely breakeven on EBITDA in Q2

Goldman Sachs today on Norweigan Cruises - bullish for HKY!

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH): 2Q24 Review: Raising estimates on continued pricing momentum
1 August 2024 | 2:27AM EDT
Bottom line: NCLH showed solid pricing momentum, raising guidance for the third time

Today research by Montega today:

Substantial operational improvements behind expectations
but with encouraging trend and positive implications for 2025
Havila Kystruten AS released the figures for Q2 on Thursday, 29th after market close,
and held an earnings call the following day. The occupancy rate in Q2 was below our
expectations, which was the primary factor contributing to the discrepancy in our
forecast. While earnings improvement is slower than initially expected, KPIs are moving
in the right direction and supporting our investment case.
Havila Kystruten AS - Q2 2024 Q2/24 Q2/24e Q2/23 yoy
Operating Revenue 272.4 321.2 128.9 111.2%
Contractual Revenue 96.9 96.9 34.2 124.3%
EBITDA 58.4 92.7-15.3 n.m.
Source: Company, Montega
Operational revenue of 272.4 m NOK in Q2 missed our forecast due to lower than
expected occupancy in the quarter (69% vs. >80%). This shortfall could not be offset by
the higher than anticipated cabin revenue of 5,200 NOK (MONe: ~4,900 NOK). In addition
to the impact of round trip cancellations of Havila Pollux, which we had already
factored in, the north-south route is still experiencing below-average occupancy.
Furthermore, the company is also affected by higher than expected cancellations in
group allotments that have been challenging to re-sell at short notice. This has led
management to lower its full-year occupancy expectations to 75%, down from just
below 80% previously. The lower revenue was the primary factor contributing to the
EBITDA miss, as OPEX remained par with Q1/24 despite slightly higher occupancy (Q1/24:
68%).
Supporting factors for H2 and 2025 ff.: In our initiation report we stated that we believe
Havila's substantial competitive advantages will compound over time. Although we
would have welcomed a steeper earnings development this year we feel obliged to
remind ourselves of this assessment, given the overall encouraging trajectory and the
expectation that some short term constraints will abate in the coming quarters. In the
call, management quantified the negative sales effect from the spillover of
cancellations in 2023 to approx. 60 m NOK, which equates EBITDA in our view.
Additionally, the unfavourable LNG hedging is estimated to have incurred a cost of ca.
20 m NOK in H1. As the company is now able to buy at spot price due to the loosening of
restrictions on its financing agreements, this should support EBITDA in H2. Meanwhile,
bookings for 2025 are developing ahead of expectations which should also be
supported by Havila's inclusion in TIME's annual list of the world's greatest places in
2024.
Change in estimates: We have lowered our projections for 2024 due to the miss in
estimates for Q2 and to reflect the lowered guidance of occupancy for the full year. At
the same time, we are rolling the lower LNG-cost in H2 over to the following years.
Conclusion: Overall, the sequential improvement is encouraging, albeit slower than
initially expected. Q3 looks set to see a further increase in sales and profitability,
providing positive news flow and a foundation for the expected refinancing in 2025,
which should re-rate the share price. We reiterate our Buy rating with a slightly lowered
PT of NOK 2.50.

Havila information service:

https://www.mynewsdesk.com/com/havilavoyages

Spoke to the analyst today. The management is planning to do simple changes to increase average revenue per room. There is a demand for luxury on the boats and there are some easy fixes to increase premium offering of HKY.

I am very bullish

Pressemelding - 25. september 2024
Havila Voyages wins the “Kreuzfahrtguide Award” 2024 in the Sustainability category
The Norwegian cruise company Havila Voyages was honoured at this year's “Kreuzfahrtguide Award” in the sustainability category for its ship Havila Pollux – and thus for its clear vision for sustainable cruise tourism. The award ceremony took place in Hamburg, where Pia Kuusisto, Havila Voyages‘ Head of Sales In Germany, accepted the prize. With this award, the jury recognizes Havila Voyages’ outstanding efforts to make the cruise industry more environmentally friendly by using innovative technologies.

Very positive. Conde Nast has a great reach. Should transfer to more demand for Havila


NYHET - 8. OKTOBER 2024
Havila Voyages recognized with Condé Nast Traveler 2024 Readers' Choice Award
Condé Nast Traveler has announced the results of its annual Readers’ Choice Awards naming Havila Voyages,a one-of-a-kind collection of four hybrid ships offering eco-friendly voyages along the stunning Norwegian coast, as #10 out of 24 in best in the “Medium Ships” category. Having debuted their final two ships in 2023, this recognition within the prestigious global program has been achieved within the first year Havila Voyages has had the full fleet in operation.

"It is a true honor to be recognized by such a highly esteemed awards program. Our team has worked hard to develop an energy-efficient way to allow more travelers to experience the beauty and culture of the Norwegian coastline and we are thrilled to have received such a positive response in our first full year in operation," said Bent Martini, CEO of Havila Voyages.

“As we look to 2025, we’re eager to continue welcoming travelers to our uniquely sustainable onboard experiences and approach to enjoying the rich nature and culture of the region.”

More than 570,000 Condé Nast Traveler readers across the United States submitted responses rating their travel experiences across the globe to offer a comprehensive look at the places they eagerly anticipate revisiting. The Readers’ Choice Awards, with their unparalleled legacy as the travel industry’s longest running and most prestigious accolades, remain the ultimate symbol and acknowledgement of excellence within the travel sector. The full list of winners can be found here.

Fearnley today:

Moving in the Right Direction

• 2Q the first quarter with positive EBTIDA
• Cabin pricing to be firm in 3Q, with 4Q well covered also
• Upcoming refinancing could unlock significant equity value

HKY reported their first quarter posting positive EBITDA in 2Q, outperforming
on price performance. We believe prices will remain firm in 3Q, though slightly
offset by our lower occupancy estimates (FSest. 76% vs. 89% previously). This
should result in an EBITDA well north of NOK 100m, we believe. Though
interest costs continue to weigh on the financial statements, a refi of the
Tranche A EUR 255m loan is now hardly more than a year out. Albeit there is
not much earnings history yet, should 2Q performance be something to go by,
a refinancing should be done at a lower interest rate margin, we believe.

Ikke så rart at det går bratt nedover. EK er vel tapt og gjelden er den som bestemmer i selskapet? (og det har vært rimelig klart siden i vinter). Sævik eier gjelden og her lukter det konvertering på kriiiiserabatt, spør du meg. Er bare å se på hva som skjer i Havila Shipping

HKY reports tomorrow. Stong report expectted. A lot of negativity in the stock. Could rebound strongly.

Fearnley today:

Havila Kystruten AS (BUY, NOK 1.00)
• 3Q preview – Expect strong EBITDA on the back of rising occupancy and continued firm cabin rates
HKY will report 3Q figures tomorrow, and we expect EBITDA to come in at a strong NOK 143m on the back of 76% occupancy and continued strong average cabin rates (though, average cabin rate slightly down q/q). Following their first operational quarter with positive EBITDA in 2Q, the third quarter remains essential for HKY in relation to their financial position heading into the seasonally weaker winter months, we believe. On our estimates, HKY will hold enough liquidity for the winter. With the equity trading down significantly the past months, pricing has come down to 8.5x our 2026 EBITDA.

Conference call Thursday 10 AM CET

Ja, Sævik er en luring og pleier komme godt ut selv.
De oppgir selv at EK er 3853 mil som tilsvarer kr.4,50 per aksje. Markedet tror vel på utvanning. Selskapet har lånt 100m per kvartal og kan jo ikke fortsette med det. Det trenges en refinansiering med normal rente, si rundt 20% Klarer de å tjene penger etter neste sommer dvs 2025, kanskje

Havila Kystruten AS (BUY, NOK 1.00)

• EBITDA coming in at new high / Strong forward bookings / Robust liquidity ahead of winter

HKY reported 3Q EBTIDA of NOK 128m on the back of 78% occupancy and average cabin revenue of NOK 5,200. The headline figure was slightly off our expectations, though we note the numbers came out with significant growth q/q. Furthermore, onboard sales increased in 3Q, with sales rising to NOK 770 per passenger night from 690 previously. A negative unrealised currency effect of NOK 112m pushes net profit in the red, which is largely attributed to the company’s debt in EUR.

By the end of November, 73% of all capacity for 2024 was sold, hence the company’s target level of 75% occupancy for the year should be well within reach and result in a robust 4Q as well, we believe. Looking into 2025, a strong 41% of capacity is already booked at a significantly higher price, according to mgmt. comments. Consequently, HKY should be on track to achieve 80% occupancy in ’25 – and with higher avg. prices on the cabins, results should get an uplift next year, we believe. Moreover, HKY are making a push to increase their onboard sales, which together with an increased focus on shorter trips on the southbound route and a more experienced organisation creates exciting prospects for 2025.

The cash position increased to NOK 313m from NOK 280m in 2Q, which coupled with preliminary 4Q bookings and undrawn credit lines should be enough operate though the winter, we believe. Book equity fell down in the red at negative USD 182m, though we argue that this should be looked through due to the market value of the vessels having a significantly higher value than indicated by book values

Betydelig inntektsvekst for Havila Kystruten
27.11.2024 19:58:55 CET | Havila Kystruten | Pressemelding

Del





Havila Kystruten presenterte sin kvartalsrapport for tredje kvartal 2024 onsdag kveld, med betydelig inntektsvekst, samt forbedret lønnsomhet og positivt driftsresultat.


https://kommunikasjon.ntb.no/pressemelding/18339243/betydelig-inntektsvekst-for-havila-kystruten?publisherId=17848920&lang=no

Montega Research Today:

Solid Q3 performance and first short and midterm EBITDA
guidance confirms our investment case
Havila reported solid Q3 numbers on Wednesday after market close, which slightly fell
short of our expectations but reaffirm our view of a highly attractive investment case.
Havila Kystruten AS - Q3 2024 Q3/24 Q3/24e Q3/23 yoy
Revenue 464.1 482.2 226.1 105.2%
EBITDA 127.6 148.2 -35.5 n.m.
EBITDA margin 27.5% 30.7% -15.7%
in m NOK; Source: Company, Montega
Overall revenue came in at 464.1 m NOK in the third quarter, corresponding to a 105.2%
increase compared to last year, driven by higher occupancy (78%/+8PP yoy), cabin
rates (5.200 NOK/+30% yoy) and onboard revenue per passenger (770 NOK/+11% yoy), in
addition to higher government revenue due to the full operation of all four ships during
the quarter. We had expected slightly higher occupancy (80%), which explains the delta
to our projections, but we are very pleased with the overall development of the KPIs as
they show a sequential improvement throughout recent quarters.
The operational improvements are also the main driver of the significant earnings
improvement, resulting in an EBITDA of 127.6 m NOK and a margin of 27.5%. The
discrepancy compared to our estimates stems from the slightly lower-than-expected
revenues and higher personnel costs due to wage increases, which had a retroactive
effect in Q3.
Encouraging midterm outlook: Apart from providing more details on KPI development
in the earnings call presentation, we were encouraged to see that Havila has issued a
explicit EBITDA guidance for 2024 (~200 m NOK), 2025 (400-500 m NOK) and 2026
(600-800 m NOK) onward, which supports our investment case. The substantial
increase in earnings is targeted to come from topline growth, predominantly driven by
higher average prices in 2025 (+20-30%). Approximately one-third of this growth will
result from the runoff of rebooked trips due to previous years
'
cancellations, while the
remaining portion will come from overall price increases for the award-winning product
which have already been implemented. In addition, occupancy is expected to range
between 75%-80% next year, driven primarily by better yield management on the
southbound route, which has already shown improvement within the 41% prebooked
capacity for 2025. From 2026 onward, the company expects to capitalize on its shorter
trip options, which offer exciting commercial opportunities aimed at customers with a
higher willingness to pay. Furthermore, management is confident that the significant
operational improvements, the value-adjusted balance sheet (broker value of ships
approx. 700 m EUR vs. 356 m EUR balance sheet value) and initial indications from
interested parties should pave the way for a successful refinancing of the main credit
facility by Q3 2025 at the latest.
Conclusion: We have adjusted our estimates slightly to reflect higher revenue and cost
positions resulting from the Q3 numbers and guidance. We remain very positive on the
overall case and reiterate price target and reccomendation, also supported by the fact
that two of the main institutional shareholders have notably increased their stakes
in Havila over the course of the year.