Supersyklus for olje og Frontline

andreasr
FRO 20.10.2023 kl 19:50 28430

La oss se nærmere på scenariet supersyklus for olje og frakt av olje i forhold til Frontline, og mulighetene for at supersyklus inntreffer i vinter.

Kursen for Frontline er nå $21.02 på Nasdaq. I dag har jeg Frontline aksjer for 4,6 MNOK. Hva er maksimalt potensiale i Frontline aksjen dersom supersyklus inntreffer? For eksempel dersom Suezkanalen stenges, eller andre events som fører til høye VLCC rater.

Hvor høye har VLCC fraktratene vært på det høyeste historisk? Hva vil Frontline kursen gå til da?
ibyx
30.10.2023 kl 22:42 5262

Skjønner du lever i håpet! Men minus 1,89% kan ikke kalles kraftig nedgang i FRO! 😅
Minus 10% kunne kvalifisert til den karakteristikken! :-)
Peer DHT "stupte" dessuten 0,18% 😱
Nei. Fasiten har vel de færreste, men med de ratene og den undertonnasjen vi står overfor og de volumene (av disse grunner + Euronavdealen) som har løftet FRO de siste ukene så vil du kjøpe med begge hender på korreksjoner i skarp konkurranse med mange andre! Kanskje er vi så heldige å få shortselgere på banen da som ifjor på denne tid og framover? Det gikk jo riktig bra! Gullbilletter! 😅
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/FRO/short-interest/
Sluttkurs: 243,48 NOK
OSE: 243 NOK
ibyx
30.10.2023 kl 22:54 5214

Oi! Selv Poten med alle sine non-ECO og non-scrubbers har ganske heftige snittrater for crude idag! Det drar seg visst til?
Aframax snitt bikker nesten 100k! 🤫
https://1975593.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/1975593/PDB/2023%20PDB/OCT%202023/October%2030%2c%202023.pdf
YNWA250505
30.10.2023 kl 23:05 5168

Nei kunne ikke brydd meg mindre da det finnes andre steder å tjene penger. Tror bare at uansett gode rater eller ikke så er en oppgang i 14 dager noe som vil korrigere ned igjen og den begynte i dag. Men at den skal raskt opp igjen. Ja det tror jeg så absolutt
Flipper
31.10.2023 kl 10:43 4791

QatarEnergy ( det var vel ca. et parr år siden hørte at Qatar bestille 40 gass skip, siden den gang har vi hørt lite. men nå er Qatar i gang igjen med fase 2.

QatarEnergy firms up first Samsung LNG berths in phase two of huge newbuilding

Ship-hungry Qatari giant expected to snatch over 50 vessels in this second round.

Nok en bestilling som fyller opp ordrebøkene, nå lurer jeg på hva er prisen for en VLCC
N/B pris og leverings tid ? Vil vi nå endelig se mer skraping av de gamle dunkene ?

QatarEnergy ( det var vel ca. et parr år siden hørte at Qatar bestille 40 gass skip ),
siden den gang har vi hørt lite. men nå er Qatar i gang igjen med fase 2.

QatarEnergy firms up first Samsung LNG berths in phase two of huge newbuilding

Ship-hungry Qatari giant expected to snatch over 50 vessels in this second round.

Nok en bestilling som fyller opp ordrebøkene, nå lurer jeg på hva er prisen for en VLCC
N/B og leverings tid ?

Vil vi nå endelig se mer skraping av de gamle dunkene ? Ser nå ut som U.S.A. går i
bresjen for å håndheve sanctions of Iranian oil exports which has increased more than
threefold over the past three years ...

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/media/6750

@ @ @ @ @

What sanctions has the EU adopted so far?

The EU has imposed massive and unprecedented sanctions against @ @ @Russia@ @ @ @
in response to the war of aggression against Ukraine,

@ @ @

Treasury Sanctions Entities for Transporting Oil Sold Above the Coalition Price Cap to Restrict
Russia’s War Machine

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/sanctions-against-russia-explained/

@ @ @ @


US Sanctions on Russia :

Treasury Sanctions Entities for Transporting Oil Sold Above the Coalition Price Cap to Restrict
Russia’s War Machine

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1795

@ @ @ @
Redigert 31.10.2023 kl 15:53 Du må logge inn for å svare
Anden
31.10.2023 kl 15:27 4500

Ja! da ser vi 250 tallet! Herlig når man er full lastet til over ripa (for å si det på sjømannsspråket) Men det motet mitt kan jo stå for fall! Er så positiv at jeg sitter nok lastet leeeenge til!
Anden
31.10.2023 kl 15:29 4483

Det er jo andre også som har trua på tank: ref artikkel i finansavisen nå:

Har tjent 35 millioner på én trade
Sissener Canopus har 65 prosent avkastning på seks måneder. – Vanskelig å gjøre noe galt ved å eie Frontline, sier forvalter Philippe Sissener.
Hellboy
31.10.2023 kl 15:33 4462

Bare å sitte og akkumulere, Anden. ;)

Personlig er OET største investering, så Hafnia og FRO på 4. etter BWLPG:
Sonatrach
31.10.2023 kl 16:10 4349

Baltic TD3 (AG-China) opp fra ca 36,000 til $44,949 (+$8,887) i dag :) Vi liker slike kvantesprang.



Redigert 31.10.2023 kl 16:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sonatrach
31.10.2023 kl 16:28 4293

Headline i TW nå:

VLCC rates hit four-month high as Asian refiners look West
Owners in the Middle East hold back on fixtures with hope of better rates soon.

VLCC tanker rates increased sharply this week to hit four-month highs driven by Asian refineries ordering long-haul barrels from the Atlantic, according to brokers.
Clarksons said VLCC eco rates jumped nearly 19% on Monday to $64,600 per day, with a number of fixtures reported from Brazil and the US Gulf to China.

The sharp improvements for VLCCs came after the largest crude carriers rode the coattails of spiking aframax and suezmax markets last week.
Fixtures this week included $56,763 per day on subs for a Brazil to China voyage chartered by Petrobas on the scrubber-fitted, 319,450-dwt Maran Leo (built 2014), according to the Tankers International app.

“A negative Brent-Dubai price spread has likely seen Asian refineries order low-cost, long-haul Atlantic barrels, pushing tanker earnings upwards,” Clarksons said in a note. It added that owners in the Middle East were holding back on offers for cargoes in the belief that rates would increase.

“Solid volumes in the Atlantic Basin coupled with higher activity in the Middle East is providing upwards momentum for the sector,” US investment bank Jefferies said. More oil has been available for export since September from the US owing to refinery maintenance, which is now coming to an end.

That could now see more oil diverted to local refineries, limiting the recent rises in tanker markets, Fearnley Securities said.

The VLCC market this summer has been hit by the decision by leading Opec+ members Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut production since July. Saudi Arabia exports most of its oil on VLCCs. But rising oil production in the Americas will drive export growth for crude carriers into next year, Clarksons said in its monthly oil and tanker trade report.

“Supportive demand trends are expected to remain in the crude sector in 2024,” it said.

102oktan
31.10.2023 kl 16:47 4221

Herlige tider for oss FRO-aksjonærer.
Crudebull
31.10.2023 kl 17:29 4091

Mulige triggere fremover i tillegg til rateoppgang:
Q3 fra DHT sent mandag kveld med webcast 7.
GM i Euronav 9.11 closer dealen.
Flere tankrederier kommer med resultat 7 og 9.11
Trendline
31.10.2023 kl 18:49 3924

Ja, enig med deg, dette går bra!
Det er gode tider hos Best on Water, BW-LPG også,
det må man heller ikke glemme…,
Flipper
31.10.2023 kl 19:59 3772

Husker ikke im denne fra Infront posted her i går, men ikke noen veien for en repeat
Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Arctic Securities oppjusterer kursmål på Hafnia til 99 kroner fra 92 kroner, mens kursmålet på Frontline oppjusteres til 280 kroner fra 279 kroner. Kjøpsanbefaling på begge aksjene gjentas.

Det fremgår av en sektorrapport fra meglerhuset fredag.

"Det underliggende markedet holder seg stramt, noe som bevises av den nylige oppgangen i ratene til tross for at oljeproduksjonen henger etter. Vi tror at Opec+-volumer gradvis vil drive voluminnhenting fra første kvartal 2024, noe som burde resultere i økte rater for råoljetank", skriver meglerhuset.

Gitt en ordrebok på 3,2 prosent venter meglerhuset en tilbudsdrevet oppgangssyklus og beholder derfor sine rateestimater uendret for 2024/2025.

"Fundamentale forhold innen produkttank forblir intakte, og vi ser en økende styrking av ratene inn i neste år, hjulpet av et råoljemarked som kommer tilbake for fullt", skriver meglerhuset videre.
Sonatrach
01.11.2023 kl 12:58 3165

Baltic TD3 (AG-China/VLCC) opp fra $44,949 til $52,880 (+$7,931) i dag
Flipper
01.11.2023 kl 16:28 2908

Har vert offline i hele dag

Denne er vel interessant

Turkey’s Imza Marine breaks into VLCC sector with move for much-flipped vessel

Istanbul owner lists the Gesi in its fleet, with brokers quoting a ‘soft’ price

A VLCC sold three times in two years has appeared in the fleet of expanding Turkish owner Imza Marine.The company, set up in Istanbul in 2020, lists the 305,700-dwt Gesi (built 2007) in its fleet of six tankers.This is the former Jiu Yue, listed by European brokers as sold for $48m or $48.5m.

The tanker started out as the KHK Vision and was sold by Hong Kong’s TCC Group in September 2021 for $30.7m to compatriot EGPN Bulk Carrier.

It was renamed Eastern Juniper and flipped to unknown Middle East interests in April 2022 for $36.5m, with a special survey due.

VesselsValue assesses the VLCC as worth $48.9m, almost unchanged from a year ago.The Gesi has been reflagged to Panama from Palau. It is anchored in Singapore, having arrived from the Tuzla anchorage in Turkey on 18 October.

Shipbroker Cleaves said the price, if confirmed, would appear to be “quite soft”.

The Oslo shop said owners had enjoyed another strong week in the spot market, but there were mixed signals in the tanker sale-and-purchase sphere, where product carriers still dominate.

Imza also lists two suezmaxes from 2002 in its fleet, as well as a 2005-built MR, a 35,000-dwt chemical carrier dating from 2002 and a handysize product tanker built in 2003.

Higher rates, but no S&P spike
The suezmaxes were acquired from sanctioned Russian owner Sovcomflot in 2021.

Izma’s ownership is not clear. The company has been contacted for comment.

VesselsValue links the Turkish firm to nine other tanker buys since 2020.

Higher crude tanker spot rates have not been increasing buyers’ appetite for secondhand tonnage, according to Greece’s Xclusiv Shipbrokers.

The brokerage has tallied just 36 crude carrier sales since 11 September — including Frontline buying 24 VLCCs from Euronav.

Eva Tzima, head of research at Seaborne Shipbrokers, said most tanker owners are refusing to sell at a discount to their asking prices of a few months ago, particularly when it comes to younger and bigger ships.

Rates were weaker back then, she added.

Tzima believes investors who failed to buy at that point, having missed the potential for a market upturn into the autumn, are almost certainly regretting it now.

“Encouraged by the most recent surge in earnings … several owners that were previously there to sell are now postponing such decisions for later,” she said
102oktan
01.11.2023 kl 17:30 2742

Stiger videre på Nyse 257 nå. Dette blir bra.
Flipper
01.11.2023 kl 18:25 2581

Shipowner seeks damages over cargo links to sanctioned Russian

Tonzip Maritime brings case against Singapore-based trader after cargo was linked to oil tycoon Mikhail Gutseriev
A shipowner is claiming $1.02m from Singapore trader Coral Energy over a cancelled fixture because of the shipper’s links to a sanctioned Russian businessman, according to court documents.

Liberia-registered owner Tonzip Maritime is seeking damages plus interest at the High Court in London after discovering that the oil cargo was supplied by Neftisa, a company connected to Mikhail Gutseriev, a businessman sanctioned by the European Union and UK over his links to Belarus.
Tonzip, a single-ship company, said carrying the cargo would void its insurance with the London P&I Club. Coral refused to provide alternative orders for the vessel, according to court papers filed in the US and UK by Tonzip.

The discovery of the link to Neftisa and Gutseriev on the eve of loading the 116,600-dwt Catalan Sea (built 2012) at Primorsk, eastern Russia led to the termination of the charterparty.

Coral Energy is fighting the action, saying Gutseriev did not control Neftisa. It has launched its own counterclaim over the additional $234,000 costs of chartering another ship to carry the cargo to Aliaga, Turkey, according to papers it lodged in April with a court in London.

Tonzip said the Catalan Sea, managed by Singapore’s Eastern Pacific Shipping, found alternative employment with Clearlake Shipping on a voyage from Ust-Luga, eastern Russia to Sikka, northwest India, but failed to make up the lost revenues from the Coral charter.

Gutseriev was sanctioned by the EU in 2021 as part of coordinated action with the US, UK and Canada following the forced landing of a passenger jet in Minsk, Belarus, to secure the arrest of a dissident journalist.

Gutseriev was the largest single foreign investor in Belarus, responsible for a $2bn potassium chloride mining and processing plant, and was said to be a long-term friend of President Alexander Lukashenko.

Safmar — controlled by Gutseriev — was the only Russian company that continued supplying oil to Belarusian refineries during an energy crisis between the two countries in early 2020, according to the EU sanctions notice
The sanctions led to Gutseriev distancing himself from his business interests after European oil majors and traders in June started refusing to buy export cargoes originating from Neftisa and another Gutseriev company — Russneft — reported Upstream, the sister publication of TradeWinds.

Lawyers for Coral said Gutseriev indirectly held 6.75% of shares and voting rights in Neftisa. It did not pass the threshold for owning or controlling the company, which could lead to sanctions enforcement.

His brother, Sait-Salam Gutseriev, held 68.25% and was a “very wealthy businessman in his own right and not controlled by Mr Gutseriev”, according to court documents.

George Voloshin, a sanctions expert at the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists, said in a LinkedIn post that the High Court will have to determine whether the charterparty was breached and if Gutseriev had effective control of the company.

“If I was a bank [official] dealing with a shipment of goods, I would consider Neftisa to be a controlled entity ... but from the point of view of the vessel owner, it may not be able to prove that in court,” he told TradeWinds.

Tonzip also launched legal action in California and Delaware against Coral Energy to try to link its reputed US bank accounts to the case. A judge in California ruled this month that there was no evidence of Coral holding accounts in the state.
bjartmar
01.11.2023 kl 22:38 2212

Det er feil å bruke ordet «kvantesprang» om et stort steg framover. Et kvantesprang er nemlig en av de minste bevegelsene som finnes. Kvantefysikken dette her .Les hva et kvantesprang egentlig er. OBS: Uttrykket handler ikke om et stort fysisk steg, men likevel en stor forandring. Du kan med andre ord snakke om «kvantesprang» hvis det er snakk om store og relativt brå forandringer («Et kvantesprang for kreftforskningen»), men ikke hvis det bare er snakk om et fysisk sprang («Fotballaget gjorde et kvantesprang på tabellen». eller at kursen gikk i været . .... 😎🤗
Sonatrach
02.11.2023 kl 11:47 1779

Garantert russisk conections. Tyrkia har aldri hatt noen tradisjon i VLCC sektoren.