A hundred million would be very nice for us

Tunisia er ikke en helt glemt sak. En liten produksjon fortsetter der og det kan tenkes det kommer en slags enighet om noen penger og videre produksjon i landet. Time will show.. uansett så hadde der vert fint med noen hundre mill på konto

I absolutely a gre with you. But because of dam bureaucracy for what ever recent ´s we lost possibility to create sum thing beyond just dollar´s and cents.

BMU I don’t think Tunisia was a mistake, especially if we get a big portion of that $150 million arbitration payout. I would have preferred that in a lump sum than working in Tunisia with full production.

Most of the development's I was expected that could go in both ways when is question about African country's. One ot them have coght me off guard.That is Tunisia. I was taken it for grounded and had high expectations.
- Everybody makes bad choices . Everybody makes mistakes on the life journey ore on the road to destinations,.Life is journey. It's better to admit mistakes and walk the road to success, then to walk with regret ´s on the road to failure.
- If you don’t play you don’t gain, if you don’t risk you don’t win ( p.s. this last one don't do at home ).

Guillit, that seems to be a pretty accurate summation of where Zenith is just now. A lot of potential for a stellar year in 2024.

Men her er litt info om Kazakhstan
Grunn nok til å satse en del av porteføljen her…:


Zenith Energy Ltd., det internasjonale energiproduksjons- og utviklingsselskapet, har tatt et gigantisk skritt fremover ved å kunngjøre et betinget oppkjøp av 50% av Devonian Petroleum Limited, en betydelig aktør i oljeindustrien. Dette oppkjøpet, verdsatt til ca. 5 millioner USD, ble kunngjort i en detaljert børsmelding og markerer en milepæl i Zenith Energys strategiske utvidelse.
Som angitt i børsmeldingen, innebærer oppkjøpet ikke bare en økning i Zeniths reservebase, men også en betydelig utvidelse av deres operasjonelle rekkevidde. Devonian Petroleum, med sine rettigheter til Akkudukski-blokken i Kasakhstan, besitter omfattende hydrokarbonressurser. Denne blokken, med sine estimerte P50-ressurser på 520 millioner fat olje (120 millioner fat over saltet og 400 millioner fat under saltet), representerer en betydelig utvidelse av Zenith Energys portefølje.

Andrea Cattaneo, CEO i Zenith Energy, uttalte i børsmeldingen: «Med dette oppkjøpet har vi sikret en kritisk komponent i vår langsiktige vekststrategi. Akkudukski-blokken gir oss en robust plattform for videre utvikling og produksjon. Vi planlegger å starte boreoperasjoner i blokken før sommeren 2024, noe som vil akselerere vår produksjon og styrke vår markedsposisjon.»

Zeniths oppkjøp kommer i en tid med økende global etterspørsel etter energi, og posisjonerer selskapet for å dra fordel av de voksende markedene i Sentral-Asia. Denne regionen er raskt blitt en nøkkeldestinasjon for energiselskaper som søker å diversifisere sine operasjoner og reservoarer.

Detaljene i børsmeldingen avslører også Zeniths planer om å transportere sin egen boreplattform, ZEN-260, til regionen. Dette viser selskapets forpliktelse til å utnytte sine ressurser og evnen til å mobilisere betydelige operasjonelle kapasiteter på kort tid.

Markedet har reagert positivt på nyheten, men mange ser nå på Zenith Energy som en undervurdert aksje gitt de potensielle vekstmulighetene som oppkjøpet representerer. Med en kombinasjon av aggressive utvidelsesstrategier og en sterk fokus på å maksimere verdi fra sine ressurser, ser Zenith Energy ut til å være godt posisjonert for å kapitalisere på det dynamiske energimarkedet.

For investorer som søker etter solide vekstmuligheter, representerer Zenith Energy en unik mulighet i energisektoren. Med sitt nyoppkjøpte fotavtrykk i Kasakhstan og planer om økt produksjon, står Zenith Energy på terskelen til en ny æra av ekspansjon og lønnsomhet.

I have noticed this too, we call this a creeper, someone acquiring stock whilst is quiet so they don’t have to buy at a premium with others buying same time making the price go higher.

this is the case where we can say: ,,There is no shame in turning around´´. I guess we can say that the luck was on our side. Knowledge an experience is important , but mann needs a good portion of luck in order to succeed .

Trakk seg ut. Er veldig glad for at det ikke ble noe i både Yemen og Benin.

Hva skjedde med Jemen planene til Zenith? Angrepet i dag viser at dette ville vært høyrisiko.

Yeah I wonder if someone is buying in scilence. the forum has been very quiet, but the volume in norway has been significantly higher and the price has gone up for two weeks now. nothing crazy. but steady.

Birol, you are absolutely right. Those three bonds totalling $25 million are now on the website so I guess progress has been made since the report. I guess that this now means that they are authorised for release. Hopefully we get some news soon that they have been successfully sold.

It was a 50% joint venture with the Chinese company so it has always been unclear about how much they would get back (whether $2 or $4 million). According to the half yearly report they have about $1 million in cash, but that is all we know for sure.

For once in my life I'm going aloud my self to write like in Vikings post's,,,(before he gave up hope): YES it will happen. We ware never so close before.
Never give up, never surrender.,,😊😊😊.

Hvor mye har de igjen fra pengene de betalte for det potensielle oppkjøpet i Jemen. Var det 4 milioner $ de fikk tilbake??

MG thanks very much- I keep my stock in the lsafe box- looks like maybe top up with 100 K more before the weekend

thanks for the write up MG

Yes but look at their webpage and compare to page 45. you can see the three bonds with maturity of 2027 are not in the report.

No, those are the current bonds. If you go to page 44 of the latest half yearly report on the website you can see that it says:

To avoid the risk of the excessive dilution of the capital, the Company issued two different sets of EMTN (Bond)
accruing interest payable semi-annually and listed on European stock exchanges.

As of the date of this document, the Company is pleased to confirm that it is negotiating an agreement with
an established European financial organisation for the placing of Zenith corporate bonds in the amount of EUR
25 million.

https://wp-zenith-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/12/Zenith-Financial-Statements-30-September-2023-FINAL.pdf

Great one Market.. but have a question regarding bonds. i think they already got it. Look at link i send you from their webpage. its bonds due at 2026 and 2027

https://www.zenithenergy.ca/investors/bonds-credit-ratings/

Zenith energy is in a better place today than it has ever been before if you ask me. I have always been a big advocate for a good balance between production and exploration assets for Zenith and it seems as if we will get there soon. I have to give Andrea Cattaneo credit here for not giving up.

We were so close to getting over the line with this production/exploration balance when we acquired the Tunisian production assets and looked like we would also acquire Tilapia, only for both of the agreements to fall apart at the end. But it now looks like we are back following a similar strategy, only this time with the production assets being acquired in the USA and the exploration assets in Kazakhstan.

The importance of having the production/exploration balance right in the company cannot be overstated. The production revenue allows the company the ability to service debt and the debt allows the development of the exploration assets without having to raise money by issuing shares.

I think it was both very interesting and very significant to read in the recent half-yearly accounts that Zenith are preparing to issue €25 million worth of bonds. They do need to find buyers for this debt, but they do have a long track record of issuing and paying bonds on time so this should be possible. If they do manage to issue it then they are well placed for a significant acquisition program in the US and also have all the funding that they would require for the development of Kazakhstan.

If they cannot get these bonds out quick enough then there is a chance that they will need to issue equity but hopefully it will only be for a small amount to tide them over until the bonds come through.

Either way, once they get funding in place, then the company will be incredibly well positioned to have a successful 2024 and a large part of this is to do with Kazakhstan.


Kazakhstan

The Kazakhstan oil field deal is potentially transformational for the company and although there is risk with any oil drill this risk is mitigated by the existence of mega oil and gas fields in licenses immediately surrounding ours.

The acquisition of the license is another great example of Andrea Cattaneo’s incredible deal-making and negotiating ability. $2 million acquisition cost and $3 million on drilling a well is a bargain for 50% of a license that potentially contains over 500 million barrels of p50 resources. It is certainly a much bigger and better deal than Tilapia and poises Zenith Energy for tremendous growth and profitability.in the coming year.

The fact that the company is in a position to utilise its own rig to do the work is obviously a significant advantage to the project. It not only allows Zenith to deliver the work at a much cheaper price than would otherwise have been possible, but it also means that future wells can be drilled quickly and easily. I am sure that this is part of the reason that the deal has been agreed at such a good price.

It is also interesting to see in the RNS that it looks like the terms for the acquisition of the second 50% of the asset will be agreed within 60 days of the remaining $1.8 million being paid for the first 50%. The important part of this is that it is before the drill is completed, so it means that Zenith have the opportunity of acquiring the whole license before the first well is even drilled.


Italy

Obviously, we have the Italian gas to electricity licenses which produce steadily, if not spectacularly, and seem to contribute a revenue of anywhere between €1.5-€3 million per annum dependant on the vagaries of the gas price. In itself these are not particularly significant but Andrea pointed out in his end of year interview that we have run these for 11 years now. So it does show that the company is perfectly capable of carrying out consistent production when external factors do not get in the way of progress. It also proves that they are a perfectly competent operator when left alone to operate.

United States

I like the fact that we are looking into the acquisition of US production assets. After the experience of the company being burnt by the Tunisian government completely breaking the contract that Zenith has agreed with them, then I agree with the strategy that it makes sense to produce in an environment where the legal protections are much stronger.

I think that the idea that they have had, of acquiring a US listed company, Leopard Energy, to operate the US assets through is quite an interesting one. It obviously makes Leopard a pretty much stand-alone entity, which raises the question about how would any revenue from there be repatriated to the Zenith parent in a tax efficient manner. But on the other hand it does give the opportunity for Zenith to raise money for their US operations without increasing the shares in issue for the overall company. It also allows them to raise capital in the US market that will be spent on oil assets in the US and I am sure that this will go down better there than trying to raise money for a drill in Kazakhstan.

Long-term it would not surprise me if they eventually grow this business to a significant enough size that they just sell it off to a larger company, but in the meantime the value of the holdings there will definitely have the benefit of being able to service any US based loans and act as collateral for the same – even if the money is spent on other Zenith operations.


South Sudan

South Sudan is an interesting one. It is unclear as to how much progress has actually been made, but Andrea himself said in his December interview that the two MOUS that have been signed were stepping stones to much larger goals rather than an end in themselves.

He was very clear in his interview that Zenith is continuing his long-stated aim of trying to acquire marginal fields that the super-majors are trying to dispose of. He even went as far as to state that it is fields operated by CMPC and Petronas (who want to leave the region) that he is looking to acquire.

It is an interesting new technique that he is trying in South Sudan. Obviously, with the Yemen deal that fell through last year he had a deal in place to acquire the Yemeni assets from OMV but the deal was vetoed by the Yemeni political establishment. It seems that he has learned from this experience and this time he is going about things the other way round; trying to build bridges with the Sudanese oil and gas deal ministries before attempting to acquire an asset. It makes sense as a strategy and hopefully something will come of it. I particularly like the phrase he sued when he said: “This MOU proves our ability to transact there, to be recognized, to be liked, and in a way that will help us go for much bigger projects”.



Arbitrations vs Tunisia

The three arbitrations against the state of Tunisia and the Tunisian national oil company for breaking the terms of the Tunisian licenses are continuing. The value of these is $140.5 million and it seems like Zenith have an extremely strong case since they were permitted to sell oil until they were not.

This action by the Tunisian government is a clear breach of their legal and contractual obligations. Zenith Energy had a legitimate agreement in place, which allowed them to sell the oil they produced in Tunisia. However, the government's sudden decision to halt this process has cost Zenith a lot of money and it is clear that compensation is warranted. Imagine how different the status of the company would currently be if they were still brining in between $15-20 million in revenue from these assets?

One advantage that Zenith Energy has is that these arbitrations are international in nature. This means that the judgments made in these cases can be enforced on nation states, including the Tunisian government. This is a significant advantage, as it ensures that Zenith Energy has a greater chance of receiving a favourable outcome. This has been reflected in the fact that they have already been granted an award of €120,000 in costs for the ICC in the case against ETAP.

Obviously, the arbitrations are not going to be concluded quickly and I imagine that it will be 2025 before the cases are finally ruled on. However, it does seem as if Zenith have a very good chance of winning and being awarded some or all of the money that they are claiming.


Legal case vs the SMP

Zenith have another legal case going on against the SMP in France. This one is a court case that they acquired when they bought AAOG for £250,000 in 2019 and it is for a total value of $9 million. Andrea described the case in his latest interview as looking “extremely promising” and also stated that he expects to have the final court decision delivered in late spring or early summer so this could mean a significant cash injection into the company as early as H1 2024.


Conclusion

Everything is well set for Zenith to deliver a very successful year for shareholders in 2024. If they can follow the plan that Andrea has stated and complete the Kazak acquisition and drill then they will own 50% of a huge exploration asset that has the potential to be company-transforming. If they can also acquire the American production assets then they have a revenue generator that will allow them to service significant debt on a long-term basis. When you add in the potential $9 million from the SNP then this looks like it could be a very active an profitable first half of 2024 for the company.

The risks involved are simple. They do need to raise money to complete the Kazakhstan deal and also to acquire the US assets, so a lot of the potential success depends on them getting the €25 million bond option in process as soon as possible. This is the first step to success this year. If they can do this then I expect 2024 to be a very profitable year for all of us.

Er enda mange autoselgere. også er vel triggerne mer uklare nå. satsingen nå i Kazazstan har ikke noen klar tidsfrist etter min forståelse.

forumtrollene har forsvunnet. ikke kvalitetsplakatene som er sikre på at Zenith vil lykkes.

https://www.xm.com/research/markets/allNews/reuters/australias-jupiter-energy-soars-on-kazakhstan-project-reserve-upgrade-53735775

jupiter energy doblet aksjekursen på sin oppdatering i Kasakhstan. forhåpentligvis vil det skje oss snart.

Interessant at volumet (ikke idag) har tatt seg opp voldsomt i 2024 og aksjen er i januar opp 18,53%, men ser ut som flere har forsvunnet fra forumsdiskusjoner. her men også i UK.