An interesting update from Zenith on the Tunisian arbitrations this morning. Here are my thoughts so far.

Arbitration 1 for $7.5 million expected to be decided this year
Arbitration 2 for $85.8 million to be decided by this time next year
Arbitration 3 for $48 million expected to be decided in 2027

On the face of it this all seems to make sense. The latest RNS has given a pretty comprehensive summary of what all of the arbitrations are about and where they sit in terms of settlement time periods.

The first arbitration is a relatively simple matter, as far as these things go. It is effectively a court case brought about by the fact that ETAP sold oil that was owned by EPZ (Zenith’s subsidiary) and did not pay Zenith their share of the money. So, as I have said for a long time now, this should be a pretty simple case to determine. If Zenith are owed the money then they need to be paid. It is also worth noting that this is the arbitration in which Zenith have already announced that they have seized $6.5 million of funds from an ETAP Swiss bank account. This means that the vast majority of the money is available for Zenith to receive as soon as the court order is made.

The second arbitration is less straightforward than the first as it has additional elements to it regarding loss of earnings based on Zenith not being able to operate their assets since the breach of contract by the Tunisians. As far as I understand the RNS this seems to relate to revenue that should have been received by Zenith from the moment of the company purchasing the CNAOG 22.5% of SLK, but that was not paid between then and the expiry date of the license in December 2022. It also relates to money lost from the Tunisian government refusing to grant Zenith the right to renew the license that CNAOG appear to have possessed in their original agreement – though it is not made clear how long this right to renew was for. This arbitration also includes a similar claim related to the KSCC 22.5% of SLK.

This arbitration is a fair bit more complex than the first one as it relates to loss of earnings and potential earnings rather than just the non-payment of a bill (as per arbitration 1) but it still does not seem too complex. In this case, the vast majority of the damages it seems to me relate to loss of earnings from the refusal to renew the 22.5% license from December 2022 for an extended term. Assuming that the CNAOG contract with the Tunisians was watertight, and based on the fact that the previous owner of CNAOG was China’s national oil company and the Tunisians would not have dared to mess them around it is probably safe to assume that it was. Then the case relates to damages for years worth of oil production that Zenith has not been able to access and this is why the numbers in this one are so big. Obviously we do not know how long the license was to be renewed for, but Zenith do and it must be for a substantial period.

In this arbitration, the court seem to being asked to rule simply:

a) Was the license entitled to be renewed for an extended period under the terms of the CNAOG contract which Zenith inherited when it bought CNAOG from the China National Petroleum Company?

b) If so then what was the amount of production that was lost by this breach of contract and therefore what is the financial value of this loss

Obviously in addition to the CNAOG losses which seem quite straightforwards there is also the losses related to the Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company (K.S.C.C)’s 22.5% but I feel that this could be a bit more complex because I am not sure that this deal was ever approved by the Tunisians.

The third arbitration seems to be by far the most complex of the three as it deals with issues related to the Tunisans deliberately blocking Zenith developing Sidi El Kilani and Ezzaouia. If this deliberate obstruction can be proved then Zenith can claim the potential for greater production that would have been achieved from both assets and therefore additional losses separate from those related to the second arbitration. But obviously there are many “ifs” and “maybes” in this one and I can see why it is going to take the longest. I do think that it is clever that Zenith have separated out the second and third arbitrations though.

I also think that the fact that Anima Dispute Resolutions have resigned from representing the Tunisians in this court case is very significant. According to their website they are a very experienced and internationally renowned law firm, so why would they stop representing the Tunisians in this case? It is not just because they think that they might lose as they would get paid for the work that they do anyway and lawyers do not walk away from high paid legal cases for no reason. To me, their resignation hints that there is something in there on the Tunisian side that is very rotten and they do not wish to be involved with – and if this is the case then it is potentially very beneficial for Zenith.


Finally, the mention of granting an extraordinary dividend to shareholders if the various arbitrations are successful is a very interesting move by the company and would be much welcomed by all of us. Obviously, I would like more information about what percentage of any award this extraordinary dividend would represent, but given that according to the 13th Feb 2024 fundraising RNS Andrea currently owns 9% of Zenith then it would obviously be in his own personal interest for any dividend to be as large as possible.

Og det siste i 2027.

Det e jo 2 store søksmål som skal avklares innen 2024 og 1 kvartal 2025.

It is important not to have judgments about people or situations. every agreement or situation has its own life and different outcomes . It depends from people : In which state of mind they ar, harmony with in them self and what they reflect, project to the others. Sum times shit happened s, we shud wait and see, wait for the outcome and aloud things to happened . As stock owner we just haw to hope for the best.

Ser ud til Zenith står stærkt i Tunesien sagen siden modpartens advokater har trukket sig med øjeblikkelig virkning.
Desværre står der nu også 2027, men et evt forlig kan jo komme som et lyn fra klar himmel

Hvor har du hentet denne artikkel ifra? Litt sånn oversatt fra engelsk til norsk? Merkelig ordlyd her og der. Får AC vibber av hele greia- og de vibbene er ikke bra!

Godt skrevet👍 Forhåpentligvis vil alt løsne en dag.

Problemet er årevis med nedturer og manglende varsling til aksjonærene som skaper manglende tiltro.

Den nylige kunngjøringen av Regulatory News Service presenterer både gunstige og ugunstige aspekter. Den bemerkelsesverdige ulempen er utstedelsen av ytterligere 38 millioner aksjer, noe som resulterer i en utvanning på omtrent 16 %. Et positivt element kommer imidlertid frem ettersom to selskapsdirektører personlig har investert en betydelig sum i denne emisjonen, mens arbeidet fortsetter med å fullføre gjeldsfinansieringen for Devonian-avtalen.

Denne innsamlingsaksjonen ser ut til å være et proaktivt skritt for å møte kapitalbehov. I begynnelsen av dette året antydet Zengas nøyaktig selskapets forestående mangel på arbeidskapital, og dette har faktisk vist seg å være tilfelle. Jeg hadde personlig håpet at obligasjonsinnhentingen ville eliminere behovet for utstedelse av aksjer, men det ser ut til at selskapet har ansett det fornuftig å gjennomføre det nylige innsamlingsinitiativet for å proaktivt løse eventuelle kontantstrømproblemer mellom nå og ferdigstillelse av obligasjonsutstedelsen.

Det er fortsatt relevant å erkjenne Zeniths intensjon om å finansiere borekampanjen i Kasakhstan gjennom gjeld, en detalj bekreftet i den nylige RNS. Selskapets jakt på et obligasjonsprogram på 25 millioner euro, som tidligere avslørt i deres halvårsregnskap, har pågått en stund.

Gitt de nylige innsamlede £1.260.000, uten umiddelbar allokering til oppkjøpet og utviklingen i Kasakhstan, virker det plausibelt at det gjøres fremskritt med obligasjonsemisjonen. Aksjeinnhentingen fungerer derfor som et midlertidig tiltak for å sikre soliditeten inntil obligasjonsemisjonen avsluttes. Mens RNS nevner å øremerke noen av £1,26 millioner for oppkjøp i Amerika og utvikling i Italia, virker det fornuftig å utsette slike utgifter til etter å ha sikret obligasjonsfinansieringen, og dermed bevare dagens arbeidskapital for å lette gjennomføringen av avtalen.

Denne innsamlingsinnsatsen inngir tillit til Zeniths fremtidsutsikter. Det relativt beskjedne innsamlede beløpet, kombinert med dets manglende allokering til større oppkjøp, understreker rollen som en kortsiktig likviditetsløsning. De personlige investeringene gjort av Andrea Cattaneo og Luca Benedetto, som utgjør nesten 250 000 pund av deres egne midler, viser deres tillit til selskapets strategi. Vellykket gjennomføring av obligasjonsemisjonen på 25 millioner euro, som forutsatt, vil posisjonere selskapet med en robust kontantposisjon og gode utviklingsmuligheter, slik som Devonian-øvelsene. Mitt syn på Zenith er derfor veldig positivt, og jeg er enig i den siste linjen i RNS: Året 2024 har virkelig et betydelig potensial for verdiskaping for aksjonærene.

Det er godt mulig du syns det blir lønnsomt å kunne skrive av på skatten. Jeg deler ikke helt din tankegang.

Personlig får jeg igjen over 100 000kr på skatten etter å solgt før jul.

Men jeg klarer ikke å se noe positivt av den grunn.
Skulle gjerne hatt resterende 62% 😅

Bygge volum så lenge da 👍

apropo Haraball, akkurat nå er det Ramadan i Kazakstan. Fra 10 mars til 9 april. Pent lite som skjer i denne perioden. Kan sammenlignes med elgjakta i Trøndelag

Pessimistisk?

Se på utviklingen siste årene. Det er vi som sitter igjen som tapere og mus.

Tenk så mange aksjer du kunne ha handlet for dagens kurs kontra det vi handlet for 3-2 år siden.

Det kaller jeg enormt pessimistisk. Det er verdier i selskapet som er mange ganger børsverdien. Dessverre for kursutviklingen er det for mye små aksjonærer som forståelig nok er utålmodige. Siste året har vært veldig tungt, men verdiene er der. Tunisa har ikke sjanse til å slippe unna dette.

En mann med teft har forlatt dette firmaet for 3 år siden. Og Ikke blitt med på denne utviklingen.

Det er vi som sitter igjen som mus.

Kanskje handler mennene seg inn igjen, men det blir den dagen da noe konkret er på bordet.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/kazakhstan-plans-to-increase-oil-exports-amid-falling-revenues/ar-BB1jz8F0

Får ikke gjort noe med dette. Det er i perioden som kommer at vi skiller mus fra menn. God tålmodighet, den som takler det sitter igjen med jackpot

Ble etterfulgt av en ordre på 90000 aksjer til kr 0,31. Kan være smart å prøve å etablere ett gulv med salg av ett lite antall for kjøp av ett større antall? Kan da bli noe å tjene om det gjøres ofte nok, med rett og slett manipulasjon.

Samme som i går, da startet det rett ned til 0,305 med 500 aksjer klokken 09:00. I dag med samme antall 500 aksjer til kr 150 totalt, rett ned klokken 09:00. Så hva er hensikten med ett så lite salg ?.

Ret ned i åbning på en latterlig lille ordre, viser jo tydeligt Zenith ikke tages seriøst længere

Great writing as usual. Don't forget the 9m we are awaiting that should be very close against the drilling company! maybe even we get something from congo aswell in the third case.

Ser lysere ut enn på lenge,det gledes til haraball & go go her og 💪

Once again we are waiting for news on many fronts. Obviously, we await the completion of the Kazakhstan deal which would give the company an initial 50% shareholding in an asset which is of potentially enormous value. However, unlike the Tilapia years the company has not put all its eggs in one basket and the USA production acquisitions which are to be pushed forward under CYAP/Leopard energy also look as if they could eb a key driver of growth in the future. When you add to this the fact that the company are finally moving forward on developing their Italian portfolio then things are progressing significantly and in a sensible manner to deliver ongoing cashflow at relatively insignificant development costs.

So the company has a number of different development options within the portfolio which all offer a very positive potential for the future. However, Zenith being Zenith we do actually have to close some of these deals and complete some of these developments. Obviously not all of them are going to come off, but enough of them should in order to show a good return to shareholders.

However, the most interesting thing about Zenith at the moment and certainly the one with the biggest potential to deliver huge amounts of money to shareholders are the various arbitrations against the Tunisian state and the Tunisian national oil company, ETAP.

In early 2021 Zenith acquired a number of oil and gas assets in Tunisia that produced approximately 400 bopd and if production had continued without the expected interruptions then between then and now this should have allowed Zenith to produce and sell almost half a million barrels of oil. Assuming that the average oil price over this period was between $80-100 then this would have delivered the company revenue of between $40-50 million. Of course, as we all knows only $4.5 million of this was every received and the company now has various international arbitrations in process. One is for $48 million (which is presumably for the value of the oil that was prevented from being sold) one is for $6.5 million (which is the value of oil that was sold but the revenue was never paid to Zenith) and one is for $85 million which the company is claiming in damages., The total amount of all of the arbitrations is $140 million, which is a huge amount of money for a company who’s current market cap is only about $8 million.
Obviously there is a risk with any court case, but the $6.5 million which is for the oil sold but not given to Zenith seems pretty obvious that the company will win and the loss of earnings for the oil that Zenth have been prevented from selling also seems pretty clear cut. The company have stated in their last report that the value of this is $48 million so they must be able to prove it. Assuming that they are able to win these first two cases then there will also certainly be damages – perhaps no to the level of the $85 million claimed but certainly very significant.

It is worth noting that the UK listed company Rockhopper were successful in a €190 million arbitration last year against the Italian government for a breach of rules in refusing to permit their Ombrina Mare project some years ago – and in this instance they were never even producing oil, so these arbitrations are certainly winnable. It is also very relevant to Zenith shareholders that the payment made to Rockhopper was based on the production that they missed out on for the entire lifetime of the license and so, no doubt the same rules will apply to Zenith – which means that compensation will be made not just for the missed past production but also missed future production.

Imagine what the situation would be to Zenith if they were to win even 50% of the amount claimed? This would be nearly ten times the current market cap in one lump sum, and if they were successful in all of the claims it would be almost 20 times the current market cap. That is a hell of a return on investment for those of us who hold shares in the company and are probably sitting here at a loss just now.

So despite the negativity from some on these boards, I do think that the potential for a significant return on investment here is as good as it has ever been – both from new developments and from the arbitrations. For me, for the first time in a while, I am considering quietly accumulation new shares in Zenith – not in huge tranches but certainly steadily as I do not see many other companies around that could offer the kind of returns that Zenith could if they are successful in their legal cases. In may ways, the licenses that they are looking to acquire are only the cherry on the top of the cake and not the cake itself. The real long-term value of Zenith is in the legal cases it has going on.

Skjønner ikke hva du stresser med. Det er mye oppside i selskapet både med Tunisia, italia og USA. Kazakstan avtalen er fremdeles i spill. Det henger sammen med likviditet selvsagt, og AC jobber garantert ræva av seg akkurat nå for å skaffe det som trengs. Det må jobbes, men jeg har like stor tro ennå. Dette er en aksje med mange småaksjonærer og det er tider med mindre likviditet og tålmodighet. Gjenspeiler selvsagt kursen, men ingen grunn til å svartmale noe som helst. Penger fra nye lån er ventet 28 mars.

Det er nå helt tydelig at også de mest hardbarka tilhengerne til AC har våknet og innsett svindelen med dette "oljeselskapet", for når kursen er 0,03 øre som den EGENTLIG er og ingen benytter anledningen til å kaste enda mer penger ut av vinduet, da er det et faktum at nå tør endelig ingen å være med på leken lenger.

Hvor langt ned skal vi mon i dag, køber siden er fuldstængt fordampet, ingen investor tror på fader AC’s Potemkin landsby længere

Hvornår mon fader AC toner frem på skærmen igen og med store arm bevægelser lover store og fantastiske værdier for aktionærerne i Zenith? Kursen dropper som en sten og siden 20 Feb som var datoen for Kaz, ligner tavsheden det sædvanlige mønster i Zenith som jo betyder nederlag set utallige gange før, håber jeg tager fejl.

Har miste tiltro til aksjen å ledelsen, tror de roter det skikkelig til med å kjøpe seg inn i for mange prosjekter, ser ikke ut til at det blir resultater av det. Over å ut for meg.

Ingen tiltro på aksjen.
Den bare kommer med nesten dealer og viser aldri til penger tjent.

jeg har kjøpt 26 ganger under 40øre.

Men hvornår stopper faldet ? Jeg købte mere på 38 øre og mere på 37 øre og mere på 34 øre, men kursen bare falder og falder

fin mulighet til å snitte ned det. Selv gjør jeg det. Snittet ned nå 21,34øre fra toppen. Så stolt av meg selv :-)

ja ned 8 % mere idag. Det går sgu godt

større fisk kommer, må ha tålmodighet. Kanskje rett rundt neste sving. :-)

Drop s of water makes the ocean. Everything's counts in positive ways.

Intet nytt under solen er et uttrykk i Den hebraiske bibelen (Det gamle testamentet): «Det som har skjedd, skal atter skje, og det som ble gjort, skal gjøres på nytt. Intet er nytt under solen». Det har gått inn i dagligtalen som et uttrykk for at det ikke er noe som forandrer seg, at alt er slik det alltid har vært.

Svært disiplinert kjøperside betaler ikke for mye så lenge underbyderne er på banen.oms for snart 60 løk👍

Hvergang AC åbner munden falder kursen.
Han må komme med nogle penge

Og som man kan se på kursen er folk rimeligt ligeglade med Italien, SA var lovet allerede i 2022 af fader AC

Denne gang var det Italia som var fokus👍