Blientotre
31.07.2024 kl 19:41
2472
Hvorfor skulle aksjen vannes ut mer nå?
Hva skal de hente penger for?
Vi er noen måneder unna en sak på 80-100millioner i erstatning om den går inn.
Hva skal de hente penger for?
Vi er noen måneder unna en sak på 80-100millioner i erstatning om den går inn.
MarketGunsling
31.07.2024 kl 19:39
2468
Of course the accounts don’t make good reading, but this is all due to the fact that the company got screwed over by Tunisia.
There is a massive CAD$42 million loss (CAD$22 million of which comes directly from Tunisia)
o FX losses due to the impairment of assets $3 milliom
o Impairment costs $7 million
o Arbitration costs $1.7 million
o Impairment of subsidiary $10 million
o
Imagine how different these results would have been if there had been a US15-20 million income from Tunisia and there had not been the impairment charges. Nothing we can do about it now, but it would have been very different.
Positives
At least Italy is still delivering a dribble of money and with the company looking to sell the rig for €3 million (page 78) there will soon be funds for US acquisitions
The main bit of positive news is what we already know though. The arbitrations are coming up pretty quickly. Only 4 months until we get the results of the first one and only 7 months until we get the results of the second one.
These will be defining moments for the company. If they are successful with both of these then the value of the share price will increase by 5-8 times after fees and debts have been paid off. If they are only successful with the first one, that is almost guaranteed (IMO) then we will still have in excess of $10 million to invest in US assets, if you add on the $3 million for the rig.
But all in all, the accounts are, as expected, depressing reading for Zenith shareholders and all because of the appalling behaviour of the Tunisian authorities. At least redress is coming soon.
There is a massive CAD$42 million loss (CAD$22 million of which comes directly from Tunisia)
o FX losses due to the impairment of assets $3 milliom
o Impairment costs $7 million
o Arbitration costs $1.7 million
o Impairment of subsidiary $10 million
o
Imagine how different these results would have been if there had been a US15-20 million income from Tunisia and there had not been the impairment charges. Nothing we can do about it now, but it would have been very different.
Positives
At least Italy is still delivering a dribble of money and with the company looking to sell the rig for €3 million (page 78) there will soon be funds for US acquisitions
The main bit of positive news is what we already know though. The arbitrations are coming up pretty quickly. Only 4 months until we get the results of the first one and only 7 months until we get the results of the second one.
These will be defining moments for the company. If they are successful with both of these then the value of the share price will increase by 5-8 times after fees and debts have been paid off. If they are only successful with the first one, that is almost guaranteed (IMO) then we will still have in excess of $10 million to invest in US assets, if you add on the $3 million for the rig.
But all in all, the accounts are, as expected, depressing reading for Zenith shareholders and all because of the appalling behaviour of the Tunisian authorities. At least redress is coming soon.
TheLondonOiler
31.07.2024 kl 19:29
2471
The stock is hardly diluted since the consolidation. There are only 232 million shares in issue.
The difference in dates are due to the different arbitrations. The first arbitration is to be decided at the end of 2024. The second arbitration is due in Q1 in 2025 and the third arbitration is due in 2027.
The total value of the arbitrations is almost $200 million and the first two on their own are nearly $100 million. If they come in then the company will be massively cash rich even after all lawyers and debts have been paid.
The accounts definitely make for depressing reading but what you have said is just not true.
The difference in dates are due to the different arbitrations. The first arbitration is to be decided at the end of 2024. The second arbitration is due in Q1 in 2025 and the third arbitration is due in 2027.
The total value of the arbitrations is almost $200 million and the first two on their own are nearly $100 million. If they come in then the company will be massively cash rich even after all lawyers and debts have been paid.
The accounts definitely make for depressing reading but what you have said is just not true.
futureistoday
31.07.2024 kl 19:00
2481
Og snart har han mer, må hente inn mer penger nå så da er det nok en utvanning av aksjen. Merkelig nok så klarer de ikke engang og bestemme seg når voldgiftskravene skal bære ferdig. I ene setningen er det 2026 i neste 2027… som tidligere nevnt så er aksjen så utvannet før noe penger kommer inn fra voldgiftskrav at etter alt er betalt av gjeld og advokater er det nok ikke noe igjen som vil dekke tapet vi alle sitter med her desverre
JobPeterson
31.07.2024 kl 17:25
2499
AC har en stor mengde aksjer. det er i hans interesse å ta aksjekursen så høyt han kan.
Lord Wincheste
31.07.2024 kl 16:32
2421
Er av samme tro, men samtidig så er det på grensa til ekstremsport det AC presterer mot aksjonærene sine.
JobPeterson
31.07.2024 kl 16:21
2367
vent på voldgiftsresultatene, så kan du revurdere investeringen din. alle burde kjøpe akkurat nå for å senke gjennomsnittet. voldgiftsresultater vil sende aksjekursen betydelig høyere. uansett om du liker eller misliker AC.
Lord Wincheste
31.07.2024 kl 15:54
2295
Har det vært noe annet enn merkelig oppførsel siste halvår? Fra å mate markedet med ikke-nyheter til å gå fullstendig i strutsemodus er ganske spesielt.
birol
31.07.2024 kl 15:10
2258
Mulig du har rett her. merkelig atferd av AC og CO. Vil ikke endre noe isåfall enn en meget rød dag imorgen. er vel ingen som har forventninger til kvartalsrapporten. annet enn å vente på positive utfall fra retten.
Blientotre
31.07.2024 kl 14:46
2212
Kommer vel ikke før børsen er stengt..
Trikset de har brukt ved dårlige nyheter.
Trikset de har brukt ved dårlige nyheter.
Mdg1
31.07.2024 kl 12:35
2298
Den består vel av mye utgifter og en veldig liten post for inntekter :)
Piltingsrud
31.07.2024 kl 11:15
2367
Blientotre skrev Har AC glemt å levere rapport?
AC og Zenith er i Canada, ikke Oslo, litt tidsforskjell. Rapport i desember kom kl 13.00 norsk tid, blir vel samme tidspunkt i dag. Blir spennende, den skal finleses.
BMU
30.07.2024 kl 19:24
2478
Yes, these apple guys (lawyers) can most likely lead ,take the case as a third party. They have the funds,knowledge and reputation ( billion dollar company) . I think it will be peas of cake for them.
I.'m not worried about these lawsuits at all,I think AC has experience, control over it more than we think.
I.'m not worried about these lawsuits at all,I think AC has experience, control over it more than we think.
Redigert 30.07.2024 kl 21:02
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tsu for all
30.07.2024 kl 16:08
2571
TheLondonOiler skrev MG even 50% of $150m is over 10 times of our current market cap.
Det vett vi alle, men hjelper ikke om firma tappes i flere år til = konkurs eller mer aksjeutvidele
TheLondonOiler
30.07.2024 kl 15:55
2529
MG even 50% of $150m is over 10 times of our current market cap.
tsu for all
30.07.2024 kl 15:15
2546
med andre ord det vil ta flere år til !!! då får vi vente på nye aksjeutvidelser om ikke det kommer mer inntekter en utgifter
Redigert 30.07.2024 kl 15:15
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Piltingsrud
30.07.2024 kl 14:36
2572
Tror det finnes flere muligheter. ICSID kan ikke tvinge Tunisia til å betale, det har de ikke mandat / autoritet til. De kan heller ikke beordre arrest i midler e.l. Hvis Tunisia ikke betaler må Zenith enten inngå forlik eller innlede privat rettsak mot Tunisia. Zenith kan da benytte det som kalles Litigation Funding / Financing, at en tredje part finansierer / forskutterer kostnadene med rettsaken. Denne tredje parten kan også påta seg å føre saken, det finnes selskaper som driver med dette. Om noen av advokatfirmaene Zenith benytter i dag driver med dette har jeg ikke undersøkt, det hadde kanskje vært det beste så slapp man nye advokater, det ville nok spart både tid og penger. Slike avtaler kan også gjøres under en no cure pay avtale mener jeg, saksavhengig selvsagt, men en klar / overbevisende ICSID dom i Zeniths favør vil nok ansees som en god og kredittverdig sak. Zenith kan også selge i hvert fall deler av kravet til en tredje part for å få inn penger som MarketGunsling nevner. Om de kan selge hele kravet er jeg usikker på, men det er kanskje mulig, da kunne Zenith avsluttet dette og kommet seg videre. Tiden vil gå, alle involverte skal ha sin andel, ikke minst advokatene, og kanskje Tunisia kan anke saken videre hvis de taper en privat rettsak, at de vil prøve å trenere sakene lengst mulig, utmattelsestaktikk. Vi får håpe Zenith får tilkjent fulle saksomkostninger + renter på alle beløp også, det vil hjelpe godt på. Blir fort mye penger av renters rente når beløpene er store. Får Zenith tilkjent fulle saksomskostninger også blir det enda mer penger igjen til selskapet, samlede saksomkostninger kan bli ganske store beløp.
Redigert 30.07.2024 kl 15:25
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Mdg1
30.07.2024 kl 13:15
2474
Adm øker jo med alle juriustene de ansetter. Nå tar du litt hard i med 40-60 mill på et kvartal.
Redigert 30.07.2024 kl 13:24
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tsu for all
30.07.2024 kl 12:29
2474
hva forventer vi i morgen, hvor mye minus 2 kvartal - 40 til 60 mill, som vanlig ? adm og rente kostnader
MarketGunsling
30.07.2024 kl 10:20
2535
If the arbitration is found in Zenith's favour but Tunisia fails to pay then I think that they will find a specialist fund who will advance them some of the money awarded and enforce the payment themselves through legal means. Rockhopper Exploration did a similar thing with two different funders relating to their €190 million dispute with Italy. Obviously this means that the funder takes a share of the money received (I have no idea how much) but it does allow significant cash-flow into the company straight away from the funder.
Details on the Rockhopper arrangement can be seen here: https://www.legalfutures.co.uk/latest-news/third-party-funder-paid-e26m-for-backing-disputed-arbitration-award
Details on the Rockhopper arrangement can be seen here: https://www.legalfutures.co.uk/latest-news/third-party-funder-paid-e26m-for-backing-disputed-arbitration-award
BMU
29.07.2024 kl 21:29
2662
Then we do wot we know the best: Block bank account ´s until they haw paid debts.
Redigert 29.07.2024 kl 21:30
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TheLondonOiler
29.07.2024 kl 15:49
2787
That’s impossible, the Tunisians have already been fined for not adhering to schedules in the court case. My guess is this will be settled out of court or the Tunisians will have to pay a very hefty legal bill. Also the top 3 legal firm would not take this case on unless there was a big financial reward for them.
Furuen
29.07.2024 kl 09:59
2900
Hva skjer om Tunisia blir dømt, men lar være å betale? Det virker jo som at de gir fullstendig F i internasjonale regler.
TheLondonOiler
29.07.2024 kl 09:49
2895
Just a reminder we have several arbitration proceedings against the Republic of Tunisia and ETAP (Entreprise Tunisienne d'Activités Pétrolières), focusing on disputes over contractual obligations and damages related to their oil production and development activities in Tunisia.
ICSID Arbitration: Zenith Energy and its subsidiaries have filed a claim under the ICSID Convention rules, seeking at least $48 million in damages. The claim alleges that Tunisia engaged in unreasonable obstructions affecting their Sidi El Kilani and Ezzaouia concessions. The arbitration process is ongoing, with significant steps taken, including procedural orders issued earlier in 2024.
ICC Arbitration (ETAP): This arbitration involves a claim of approximately $7.5 million, initiated due to ETAP's failure to comply with payment obligations for oil produced and sold by Zenith’s subsidiary. The Arbitral Tribunal has rejected ETAP’s request to include Tunisia as a co-defendant and has ordered ETAP to pay legal costs. A decision is expected by the end of 2024.
ICC Arbitration (SLK Concession): Zenith's claim here amounts to $85.8 million, covering damages from lost production revenue due to obstructions by Tunisian authorities. This arbitration is also ongoing, and Zenith has appointed renowned legal counsel to support their case.
The outcomes of these arbitrations are anticipated to be either a favorable award to Zenith or an amicable settlement, as per the company's assessments and legal advice received. I personally believe zenith will retrieved half of the $150m owed and with the first arbitration proceed to fund the Kazakhstan and USA assets which will start bringing value to the company.
ICSID Arbitration: Zenith Energy and its subsidiaries have filed a claim under the ICSID Convention rules, seeking at least $48 million in damages. The claim alleges that Tunisia engaged in unreasonable obstructions affecting their Sidi El Kilani and Ezzaouia concessions. The arbitration process is ongoing, with significant steps taken, including procedural orders issued earlier in 2024.
ICC Arbitration (ETAP): This arbitration involves a claim of approximately $7.5 million, initiated due to ETAP's failure to comply with payment obligations for oil produced and sold by Zenith’s subsidiary. The Arbitral Tribunal has rejected ETAP’s request to include Tunisia as a co-defendant and has ordered ETAP to pay legal costs. A decision is expected by the end of 2024.
ICC Arbitration (SLK Concession): Zenith's claim here amounts to $85.8 million, covering damages from lost production revenue due to obstructions by Tunisian authorities. This arbitration is also ongoing, and Zenith has appointed renowned legal counsel to support their case.
The outcomes of these arbitrations are anticipated to be either a favorable award to Zenith or an amicable settlement, as per the company's assessments and legal advice received. I personally believe zenith will retrieved half of the $150m owed and with the first arbitration proceed to fund the Kazakhstan and USA assets which will start bringing value to the company.
BMU
28.07.2024 kl 18:44
3079
When is question about acquisitions of Zenith sparsely I'm thinking about Kazak..Even the thinks like it seems its going in the same pattern as before its not exactly true.I think is just delay and nothing else. Universe newer don't repeat the same BS twice in the same pattern ore way ( I´m thinking about TP2 and Kazak.). It's just delay. Don't forget that AC and LB bout sum million of shares in march if I´m not mistaken. According to investment rulles thous who have inside information about company futer development which will influence share price in any way : it means up ore down they can't bye ore sale in this case bye. It haw to go at least 3 months from the day AC and LB bout the shares and the investors news about Kazakhstan
Aqualight
27.07.2024 kl 16:51
2048
Det har INTET med spin at gøre MG, det er meget faktuelt, men man kan uden tvivl konstatere at du er forelsket i aktien, hvilket er yderst farligt.
AC hiver 1 million kr hver eneste måned i gage, og han levere ikke i nærheden af at forsvaren den betaling.
ALLE bliver fattigere, med undtagelse af 2 personer, AC og Luca, det er også faktuelt.
De indtægter der er i Italien, dækker kun de faktuelle udgifter, og eneste grund til at tallene i en kort periode blev udsendt via RNS, var for at forsvare den inkompetence det hele reelt dækker over.
Nu vil jeg igen nyde solen og en kold øl.
Aqualight 🇩🇰🇳🇴
AC hiver 1 million kr hver eneste måned i gage, og han levere ikke i nærheden af at forsvaren den betaling.
ALLE bliver fattigere, med undtagelse af 2 personer, AC og Luca, det er også faktuelt.
De indtægter der er i Italien, dækker kun de faktuelle udgifter, og eneste grund til at tallene i en kort periode blev udsendt via RNS, var for at forsvare den inkompetence det hele reelt dækker over.
Nu vil jeg igen nyde solen og en kold øl.
Aqualight 🇩🇰🇳🇴
Redigert 27.07.2024 kl 16:52
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futureistoday
26.07.2024 kl 08:16
2250
Oljen som er produsert og som er på lager, er det som zenith har voldgiftskravet på mot etap. Her har det blitt tatt beslag i penger fra etap i en sveitsisk bankkonto holdt av etap for og sikre pengene frem til voldgiftskravet er avgjort.
Pr dags dato så produserer ikke selskapet olje, dette mener jeg de har skrevet i en av børsmeldingene. De produserte en skvett i robbana frem til lagringsmuligheter gikk tom. (Forstod det var meget begrenset lagring) da de ikke får solgt oljen fra robbana.
Etter det første voldgiftskravet (ICSID) ble sendt inn så meldte de at de fortsatt produserte, men det ble full stopp litt senere da de ble fratatt alt i Tunisia utenom el bibane og robbana. Dette skal stå i meldinger fra firmaet for de av dere som gidder lese selv. OG NEI, jeg sitter ikke og blar igjennom for dere som ikke gidder lete selv.
Pr dags dato så produserer ikke selskapet olje, dette mener jeg de har skrevet i en av børsmeldingene. De produserte en skvett i robbana frem til lagringsmuligheter gikk tom. (Forstod det var meget begrenset lagring) da de ikke får solgt oljen fra robbana.
Etter det første voldgiftskravet (ICSID) ble sendt inn så meldte de at de fortsatt produserte, men det ble full stopp litt senere da de ble fratatt alt i Tunisia utenom el bibane og robbana. Dette skal stå i meldinger fra firmaet for de av dere som gidder lese selv. OG NEI, jeg sitter ikke og blar igjennom for dere som ikke gidder lete selv.
MarketGunsling
25.07.2024 kl 21:56
2371
1. I know that they should have some oil in reserve because it has continued to be produced and they still own the license, but from a quick look I have not been able to find any company figures about how much this should be. I will probably be able to work it out from old production numbers but will not be able to do this until next week, so if you can find the data before then it would be much appreciated. An extra $15 million would certainly be a very welcome addition to the company bank accounts, but I suspect that this money will most likely be recovered in the third arbitration.
2. I think that everybody thinks that Zenith are going to win the court case. You just have to look at the legal expertise they have now got on their team.
2. I think that everybody thinks that Zenith are going to win the court case. You just have to look at the legal expertise they have now got on their team.
birol
25.07.2024 kl 15:31
2500
Like to add two thing
1: didnt they have oil in reserves for about 15-20M ? about 200k barrells+
2: The fact they renewed debt means the debt owners think they will win, if not the wouldnt renew cause they would lose their money. getting 15% a year in return a year is a big risk if they risk losing lots more if Zenith loses the court cases.
1: didnt they have oil in reserves for about 15-20M ? about 200k barrells+
2: The fact they renewed debt means the debt owners think they will win, if not the wouldnt renew cause they would lose their money. getting 15% a year in return a year is a big risk if they risk losing lots more if Zenith loses the court cases.
TheLondonOiler
25.07.2024 kl 14:26
2550
Technically you’re right, but the renegotiations delayed it and it’s good news. Simple as that.
futureistoday
25.07.2024 kl 14:16
2557
Du bør lese hva jeg svarte på, og ikke tillegge meg noe annet enn det. Han skrev at obligasjonene ble betalt på tide. Det er jo så langt fra sannheten du kommer, og de ble heller ikke betalte, de ble refinansierte til dårligere vilkår for zenith. Så at du kommer med en lang tirade av hva jeg mener eller ikke får du holde for deg selv. Jeg korrigerte feilen som ble sagt og la frem fakta
MarketGunsling
25.07.2024 kl 13:59
2535
Futureistoday – as always you take the most deeply negative spin on any Zenith news that you can. Of course this is good news. The company have issued new bonds that do not need to be paid until 2026, by which time they will probably have a number of producing US assets and also a significant cash injection from the results of the arbitrations with Tunisia which will make the payment of the bonds easier and the additional interest will be irrelevant.
It makes total business sense for Zenith to do this and it is not a big deal. Companies refinance debt all of the time dependent on where in their development cycle they actually are.
No doubt, you will argue from your relentlessly negative point of view that there could be no wins from any of the arbitrations and there could be now new assets acquired. Yes this is possible, but let’s face it, it is also extremely unlikely and very difficult to take seriously. After all, you could apply the same “whatabout” logic to negatively talk down the prospects of any company on the planet.
As I have mentioned on a number of occasions in the past, the first arbitration is pretty much guaranteed to be won by Zenith. The simple facts of the matter is that Zenith produced the oil, submitted it for sale and it was sold. Etap took the money from the sale and simply did not pay Zenith. It is clear breach of contract and basically amounts to theft. It is easily proveable and as close as you can get to a guaranteed win in a legal case. When interest and damages are added onto the top of the original $6.5 million that was stolen I fully expect Zenith to receive around $10 million this September.
Once the first arbitration is completed then the company will have a significant amount of money to invest into new producing acquisitions, presumably in the US, making this debt relatively easy to service.
Of course if they lose all of the arbitrations and do not acquire any other assets by 2026 then the company is done. It doesn’t take an investment genius to tell us that. However, if you go to the other extreme and assume that they win the full amount from all of the arbitrations and acquire a number of new US assets then you get a very different result. A company with $80+ million in the bank and a continuous monthly revenue of further millions of dollars. In this circumstance the additional interest they are paying on the bond refinancing is totally irrelevant.
Of course, the reality is likely to be somewhere in the middle. Zenith will not get everything they are after in the arbitrations but they will get a good chunk of it. They will fund some of this into Leopard and raise more money in the US and go out and acquire a number of significant producing assets. In this circumstance the bonds will still be easy to pay and the refinancing will still have been a clever business decision.
Given the current position of the company it is hard to work out how this bond refinancing could possibly be considered bad news. It is not game-changing news that is going to send the share-price rocketing upwards but is a sensible business decision that has helped put the company on a much more solid footing going forwards as we move into the resolution period of the first two arbitrations. There is only two months to go before we get the results of the first arbitration and only 8 months to go before we get the results of the first big one. I simply fail to see any justification for treating this as bad news.
It makes total business sense for Zenith to do this and it is not a big deal. Companies refinance debt all of the time dependent on where in their development cycle they actually are.
No doubt, you will argue from your relentlessly negative point of view that there could be no wins from any of the arbitrations and there could be now new assets acquired. Yes this is possible, but let’s face it, it is also extremely unlikely and very difficult to take seriously. After all, you could apply the same “whatabout” logic to negatively talk down the prospects of any company on the planet.
As I have mentioned on a number of occasions in the past, the first arbitration is pretty much guaranteed to be won by Zenith. The simple facts of the matter is that Zenith produced the oil, submitted it for sale and it was sold. Etap took the money from the sale and simply did not pay Zenith. It is clear breach of contract and basically amounts to theft. It is easily proveable and as close as you can get to a guaranteed win in a legal case. When interest and damages are added onto the top of the original $6.5 million that was stolen I fully expect Zenith to receive around $10 million this September.
Once the first arbitration is completed then the company will have a significant amount of money to invest into new producing acquisitions, presumably in the US, making this debt relatively easy to service.
Of course if they lose all of the arbitrations and do not acquire any other assets by 2026 then the company is done. It doesn’t take an investment genius to tell us that. However, if you go to the other extreme and assume that they win the full amount from all of the arbitrations and acquire a number of new US assets then you get a very different result. A company with $80+ million in the bank and a continuous monthly revenue of further millions of dollars. In this circumstance the additional interest they are paying on the bond refinancing is totally irrelevant.
Of course, the reality is likely to be somewhere in the middle. Zenith will not get everything they are after in the arbitrations but they will get a good chunk of it. They will fund some of this into Leopard and raise more money in the US and go out and acquire a number of significant producing assets. In this circumstance the bonds will still be easy to pay and the refinancing will still have been a clever business decision.
Given the current position of the company it is hard to work out how this bond refinancing could possibly be considered bad news. It is not game-changing news that is going to send the share-price rocketing upwards but is a sensible business decision that has helped put the company on a much more solid footing going forwards as we move into the resolution period of the first two arbitrations. There is only two months to go before we get the results of the first arbitration and only 8 months to go before we get the results of the first big one. I simply fail to see any justification for treating this as bad news.
futureistoday
25.07.2024 kl 09:39
2638
TheLondonOiler skrev The bonds repaid on time everything on track.
On time? Da følger du ikke med i timen. De skulle vært betalt i januar, altså for over ett halvt år siden, og nå har de egentlig ikke blitt betalt, de har blitt fornyet med en skyhøy rente. Så zenith har fremdeles like mye gjeld, bare til enda høyere rente. Og de har fremdeles ikke noe mer inntekter til og betale nevnte gjeld som de ikke klarte og betale i utgangspunktet og måtte refinansiere obligasjonene til dårligere vilkår for zenith. Hvertfall 88% av dem. De har ikke betalt de resterende prosentene ennå. Så den posten din er bare helt feil.
Redigert 25.07.2024 kl 09:40
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