Link Mobility - Top Sparebank Idea for 24
Link Mobility, Europe’s biggest SMS communication company just sold its US business at 14 times EBITDA for USD 260 Million. Link trades at only 8 times now which indicates the upside.
Link is one of the cheapest stock vs its peers due to its high leverage. The leverage is now resolved by the sale of the US business.
Ready for price re-rating
The full investment summary below:
https://fitinvestmentideas.com/2024/01/24/link-mobility-sparebank-top-idea-for-2024/
Link is one of the cheapest stock vs its peers due to its high leverage. The leverage is now resolved by the sale of the US business.
Ready for price re-rating
The full investment summary below:
https://fitinvestmentideas.com/2024/01/24/link-mobility-sparebank-top-idea-for-2024/
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d12m
13.02.2025 kl 12:19
330
Pareto
Link Mobility Group - Q4’24 Gross Profit & EBITDA adj. slightly ahead expectations
Link delivered gross profit spot on expectations, including an organic growth rate of +8% (on a tough y/y comp) and EBITDA adj. ~5/3% ahead cons/pas. The quarter included higher-than-expected adjustments relating to a NOK 18m phishing incident, creating some noise in the reported P&L. However, adjusting for this, cash EBIT was spot on our expectations. As we have not seen this event before, we regard it truly as a ‘one-off’ and should not impact estimates ahead. We thus expect to lift estimates marginally as Q4 1) confirms continued high-single digit organic GP growth into 2025 & 2) further margin expansion. We have a BUY TP NOK 30.
Link Mobility Group - Q4’24 Gross Profit & EBITDA adj. slightly ahead expectations
Link delivered gross profit spot on expectations, including an organic growth rate of +8% (on a tough y/y comp) and EBITDA adj. ~5/3% ahead cons/pas. The quarter included higher-than-expected adjustments relating to a NOK 18m phishing incident, creating some noise in the reported P&L. However, adjusting for this, cash EBIT was spot on our expectations. As we have not seen this event before, we regard it truly as a ‘one-off’ and should not impact estimates ahead. We thus expect to lift estimates marginally as Q4 1) confirms continued high-single digit organic GP growth into 2025 & 2) further margin expansion. We have a BUY TP NOK 30.
Redigert 13.02.2025 kl 12:21
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NordicGuy
07.02.2025 kl 14:53
542
Link is Pareto top idea for February:
LINK – BUY, TP NOK 30
We keep Link in our model portfolio over the upcoming figures. For Q4 we expect gross profit of NOK 436m (+7% y/y organic) and EBITDA
adj. at NOK 207m, both items in-line with consensus. Link faces a slightly tougher y/y comp this quarter, where last year’s +13% GP growth
was driven by strong market push around Black Week & Christmas. But since last year, (i) 3-month EURIBOR has dropped ~95bps (ii)
both consumer confidence and actual spending in the Eurozone has increased y/y. Although only ~20% of Link’s volumes stem from
marketing use-cases, improving macro suggests a positive contribution also in 2024 from this seasonal fourth quarter ‘swing-factor’. While
we hold no ‘out-of-consensus’ view on Q4, we think hitting on expectations will be viewed as a positive, as the recent share weakness
indicates market expectations to be lower. For 2025 we expect business momentum to continue but see upside potential from (i) RCS rollout and (ii) M&A, where the latter could lift EBITDA by ~50%. At 8/9% levered FCF yield and a nonchallenging relative valuation, neither
the current business nor these kickers are priced in. BUY / TP NOK 30.
LINK – BUY, TP NOK 30
We keep Link in our model portfolio over the upcoming figures. For Q4 we expect gross profit of NOK 436m (+7% y/y organic) and EBITDA
adj. at NOK 207m, both items in-line with consensus. Link faces a slightly tougher y/y comp this quarter, where last year’s +13% GP growth
was driven by strong market push around Black Week & Christmas. But since last year, (i) 3-month EURIBOR has dropped ~95bps (ii)
both consumer confidence and actual spending in the Eurozone has increased y/y. Although only ~20% of Link’s volumes stem from
marketing use-cases, improving macro suggests a positive contribution also in 2024 from this seasonal fourth quarter ‘swing-factor’. While
we hold no ‘out-of-consensus’ view on Q4, we think hitting on expectations will be viewed as a positive, as the recent share weakness
indicates market expectations to be lower. For 2025 we expect business momentum to continue but see upside potential from (i) RCS rollout and (ii) M&A, where the latter could lift EBITDA by ~50%. At 8/9% levered FCF yield and a nonchallenging relative valuation, neither
the current business nor these kickers are priced in. BUY / TP NOK 30.
NordicGuy
03.02.2025 kl 15:25
734
Pareto right now on LINK:
Link Mobility Group – RCS & M&A opportunity not priced in
We expect Q4 gross profit of NOK 436m (+7% y/y organic) and EBITDA adj. at NOK 207m, in-line with consensus. While we hold no ‘out-of-consensus’ view on Q4, we think hitting on expectations will be viewed as a positive, as the recent share weakness indicates market expectations to be lower. For 2025 we expect business momentum to continue but see upside potential from (i) RCS roll-out and (ii) M&A, where the latter could lift EBITDA by ~50%. At 8/9% levered FCF yield and a non-challenging relative valuation, neither the current business nor these kickers are priced in. BUY TP NOK 30/share
Link Mobility Group – RCS & M&A opportunity not priced in
We expect Q4 gross profit of NOK 436m (+7% y/y organic) and EBITDA adj. at NOK 207m, in-line with consensus. While we hold no ‘out-of-consensus’ view on Q4, we think hitting on expectations will be viewed as a positive, as the recent share weakness indicates market expectations to be lower. For 2025 we expect business momentum to continue but see upside potential from (i) RCS roll-out and (ii) M&A, where the latter could lift EBITDA by ~50%. At 8/9% levered FCF yield and a non-challenging relative valuation, neither the current business nor these kickers are priced in. BUY TP NOK 30/share
NordicGuy
30.01.2025 kl 17:05
944
Carnegie right now:
Link Mobility (Buy): Robust growth and margin expansion in Q4(24e) - Q4 preview
________________________________________
Expecting 10% organic gross profit growth and adj. EBITDA 4% above consensus
For Q4(24), we forecast 9.6% organic gross profit growth, as we think LINK will see continued A2P volume tailwind Y/Y and growth in its CPaaS business. We expect 110bps adj. EBITDA margin expansion Y/Y due to operating leverage and cost measures, putting adj. EBITDA at NOK212m – 4% above the available FactSet consensus.
NordicGuy
30.01.2025 kl 09:26
1081
LINK expects to receive NOK 167 million in earn-out from Message Broadcast divestment
30 Jan 2025 08:00 CET
Reference is made to the divestment of US based entity Message Broadcast, as
completed on 3 January 2024, where consideration amount comprised of an earn-out
related to full year 2024 revenue in Message Broadcast.
The Buyer has updated LINK on its unaudited revenue for Message Broadcast for
the full year 2024 and this impacts earn-out amount receivable in LINK. Based on
the Message Broadcast unaudited results, LINK will recognize a reduction in the
earn-out receivable of NOK 129 million in the fourth quarter results, impacting
discontinued operations in the income statement and will be a non-cash
adjustment.
Based on the SPA, an audit process on the Message Broadcast results, including
the earn-out, will follow.
After the reduction, total outstanding receivables related to the divestment of
Message Broadcast are NOK 286 million, whereof NOK 119 million in seller’s
credit and NOK 167 million in earn-out.
30 Jan 2025 08:00 CET
Reference is made to the divestment of US based entity Message Broadcast, as
completed on 3 January 2024, where consideration amount comprised of an earn-out
related to full year 2024 revenue in Message Broadcast.
The Buyer has updated LINK on its unaudited revenue for Message Broadcast for
the full year 2024 and this impacts earn-out amount receivable in LINK. Based on
the Message Broadcast unaudited results, LINK will recognize a reduction in the
earn-out receivable of NOK 129 million in the fourth quarter results, impacting
discontinued operations in the income statement and will be a non-cash
adjustment.
Based on the SPA, an audit process on the Message Broadcast results, including
the earn-out, will follow.
After the reduction, total outstanding receivables related to the divestment of
Message Broadcast are NOK 286 million, whereof NOK 119 million in seller’s
credit and NOK 167 million in earn-out.
NordicGuy
30.01.2025 kl 09:22
1093
LINK Mobility awarded best RCS Business Messaging Solution Award by Juniper Research
30 Jan 2025 09:10 CET
LINK Mobility (LINK) has through its market leading position for enterprise
digital messaging in Europe been awarded the prestigious Platinum Juniper
Research Award for the Best RCS Business Messaging Solution in Europe. This
recognition from Juniper Research highlights our commitment to innovation and
excellence in communication technology, solidifying LINK Mobility's position as
a leader in the RCS space.
https://live.euronext.com/en/products/equities/company-news/2025-01-30-link-mobility-awarded-best-rcs-business-messaging
30 Jan 2025 09:10 CET
LINK Mobility (LINK) has through its market leading position for enterprise
digital messaging in Europe been awarded the prestigious Platinum Juniper
Research Award for the Best RCS Business Messaging Solution in Europe. This
recognition from Juniper Research highlights our commitment to innovation and
excellence in communication technology, solidifying LINK Mobility's position as
a leader in the RCS space.
https://live.euronext.com/en/products/equities/company-news/2025-01-30-link-mobility-awarded-best-rcs-business-messaging
NordicGuy
14.01.2025 kl 10:44
1349
Arctic today:
LINK MOBILITY: BUY THIS DIP
Following a selloff in the shares, we think this is a bargain entry and model 11% organic GP growth and remain 7% above cons EBITDA into Q4 on lower opex.
8% FCF yield and 13.4x cash earnings is too cheap here we think.
LINK MOBILITY: BUY THIS DIP
Following a selloff in the shares, we think this is a bargain entry and model 11% organic GP growth and remain 7% above cons EBITDA into Q4 on lower opex.
8% FCF yield and 13.4x cash earnings is too cheap here we think.
NordicGuy
03.12.2024 kl 11:38
1736
Message from my broker today:
LINK MOBILITY: SEASONALITY
Q4 is LINK's largest quarter due to retail seasonality.
Our analyst notes that he has had 60% more black week marketing SMS received in the period 22 Nov to 2 Dec y/y.
BUY, PT 31 (equal to 17.5x '25 cEPS).
LINK MOBILITY: SEASONALITY
Q4 is LINK's largest quarter due to retail seasonality.
Our analyst notes that he has had 60% more black week marketing SMS received in the period 22 Nov to 2 Dec y/y.
BUY, PT 31 (equal to 17.5x '25 cEPS).
NordicGuy
20.11.2024 kl 11:51
2008
Spare Bank this morning:
(+) LINK MOBILITY: Positive RCS datapoints. According to Telnyx, which refer to Grand View Research, the text-message marketing industry in the US is expected to growth at a CAGR of 20.8% (!) until 2030. One of the drivers of this growth is highlighted as Rich Communication Service (RCS)..as we have highlighted in recent research notes this is key driver for growth and margin expansion going fwd.
(+) LINK MOBILITY: Positive RCS datapoints. According to Telnyx, which refer to Grand View Research, the text-message marketing industry in the US is expected to growth at a CAGR of 20.8% (!) until 2030. One of the drivers of this growth is highlighted as Rich Communication Service (RCS)..as we have highlighted in recent research notes this is key driver for growth and margin expansion going fwd.
NordicGuy
15.08.2024 kl 10:38
2424
I sold my whole position in Link. I believe the largest shareholder will be divesting in secondary public offering.
It has been comming for some time. I plan to buy it back at the offering.
It has been comming for some time. I plan to buy it back at the offering.
NordicGuy
14.08.2024 kl 08:42
2658
LINK Q2: P&L beat and all-time-high order intake with increasing traction in CPaaS
Parebank says should trade up 5% today
Another raise tomorrow as brokers will come with upside revisions price targets
Parebank says should trade up 5% today
Another raise tomorrow as brokers will come with upside revisions price targets
Serboss
14.08.2024 kl 08:24
2718
d12m skrev Hva sier de?
I andre kvartal hadde Link Mobility inntekter på 1,8 milliarder kroner. Det er en oppgang på drøyt 250 millioner siden samme kvartal i fjor.
Driftsresultatet kom på 380 millioner, mot 337 millioner i fjor.
Inntektene til Link for andre kvartal i fjor er i årets andrekvartalsrapport justert ned, fra 1,18 milliarder rapportert i fjor til 1,56 milliarder i onsdagens rapport. Det påvirker nøkkeltallene fra fjorårets andrekvartal.
EBITDA kom på 168 millioner, opp fra 106 millioner i fjor. Det ga et resultat før skatt på 78 millioner, som etter skatt endte på 62 millioner kroner. Det står i kontrast til fjoråret, da resultatet før og etter skatt var på henholdsvis minus 22 millioner og minus 16 millioner.
Driftsresultatet kom på 380 millioner, mot 337 millioner i fjor.
Inntektene til Link for andre kvartal i fjor er i årets andrekvartalsrapport justert ned, fra 1,18 milliarder rapportert i fjor til 1,56 milliarder i onsdagens rapport. Det påvirker nøkkeltallene fra fjorårets andrekvartal.
EBITDA kom på 168 millioner, opp fra 106 millioner i fjor. Det ga et resultat før skatt på 78 millioner, som etter skatt endte på 62 millioner kroner. Det står i kontrast til fjoråret, da resultatet før og etter skatt var på henholdsvis minus 22 millioner og minus 16 millioner.
Syden
10.08.2024 kl 13:15
3300
Det er håpe at dem også kommer med noe nyheter vedr videre
oppkjøp.For får noe det og gode tall vill nok kursen fort gå oppover .
oppkjøp.For får noe det og gode tall vill nok kursen fort gå oppover .
Daviden
10.08.2024 kl 01:42
3380
Håper på videre vekst, stålsetter meg for flatt. Er redd investerings viljen / endrings viljen hos kundene er høyere nå.
Håper jeg tar feil.
Håper jeg tar feil.
NordicGuy
07.08.2024 kl 10:27
3579
CM.Com - a peer of Link Mobility reported 50% year on year growth! Good proxy for Link Mobility! POSITIVE
POst by Sparebabnk this mornign:
Link Mobility (peer reporting): CM.Com - a peer of Link Mobility reported figures during the summer months and even though it is not a perfect correlation between their messaging volumes and Link Mobility messaging volumes (as CM.Com is exposed to EMEA, APAC and Americas and Link Mobility is only Europe, incl. Nordics), it is normally a decent proxy on the underlying market at least. Interestingly, they show a solid growth improvement YoY in 2Q24 of 50% (supported by a WhatsApp campaign worldwide - confirmation that the market for rich text messaging is growing), after 18% YoY growth in 1Q24 (as illustrated below). At the same time, gross margin in CM.Com increased 1.4% in 1H24, driven by both customer mix and volume mix (share of rich messaging) we believe. Positive!
POst by Sparebabnk this mornign:
Link Mobility (peer reporting): CM.Com - a peer of Link Mobility reported figures during the summer months and even though it is not a perfect correlation between their messaging volumes and Link Mobility messaging volumes (as CM.Com is exposed to EMEA, APAC and Americas and Link Mobility is only Europe, incl. Nordics), it is normally a decent proxy on the underlying market at least. Interestingly, they show a solid growth improvement YoY in 2Q24 of 50% (supported by a WhatsApp campaign worldwide - confirmation that the market for rich text messaging is growing), after 18% YoY growth in 1Q24 (as illustrated below). At the same time, gross margin in CM.Com increased 1.4% in 1H24, driven by both customer mix and volume mix (share of rich messaging) we believe. Positive!
Spartan
24.07.2024 kl 14:28
3823
Liker selskaper som tjener gode penger. Det synes Link å gjøre.
Hva mer: de har tosifret vekst. De har et stort potensiale ved å penetrerere større markedet i Europa, disse er ikke kommet så langt som Skandinavia med tanke på sms varsler og Vipps løsninger.
Det er vanskelig å se skjær i sjøen som skulle forhindre videre vekst og inntjening. Noen grunn til å ikke laste og holde selskapet?
Syden
24.07.2024 kl 12:46
3880
Syden skrevInnlegget er slettet
Ser ut som det er blitt litt mer fart i Link om dagen
Også Tigerstaden og Sundt har lastet litt mer
Ellers ser det ut som veldig mange sitter stille i båten.
Så det er vel bare sitte rolige å vente på noen gode. Nyheter .
Også Tigerstaden og Sundt har lastet litt mer
Ellers ser det ut som veldig mange sitter stille i båten.
Så det er vel bare sitte rolige å vente på noen gode. Nyheter .
Syden
16.07.2024 kl 09:12
4558
Gullhaugen skrev Teknisk så bør denne gå til 35-38 nå.
Ja alle mener Link skal opp til kr 30
Men den har stått på stedet vil å jobbet mellom 19,90 og opp mot kr 21 . Hva er det som holder den igjen?
Er det Link selv med sitt tilbakekjøps program .
Men den har stått på stedet vil å jobbet mellom 19,90 og opp mot kr 21 . Hva er det som holder den igjen?
Er det Link selv med sitt tilbakekjøps program .
NordicGuy
16.07.2024 kl 08:51
4605
Positive - NEW BUYBACK ANNOUNCED TODAY!
Oslo, Norway, 16 July 2024. LINK Mobility Holding ASA (“LINK Mobility” or the
“Company”) (OSE: LINK) announced a new share repurchase program on 12 June 2024
to repurchase an additional up to 8.69 million of the Company’s shares in open
market transactions on the OSE, totaling up to 17 million shares including the
8.31 million shares repurchased under the program completed on 30 May 2024. The
new program will be conducted during the period from 12 June 2024 until the last
day prior to the annual general meeting 2025, and in no event later than 29 June
2025.
Oslo, Norway, 16 July 2024. LINK Mobility Holding ASA (“LINK Mobility” or the
“Company”) (OSE: LINK) announced a new share repurchase program on 12 June 2024
to repurchase an additional up to 8.69 million of the Company’s shares in open
market transactions on the OSE, totaling up to 17 million shares including the
8.31 million shares repurchased under the program completed on 30 May 2024. The
new program will be conducted during the period from 12 June 2024 until the last
day prior to the annual general meeting 2025, and in no event later than 29 June
2025.
Serboss
13.05.2024 kl 07:40
6243
Link Mobility varsler flere oppkjøp
06:40
Fredrick C. Ekeseth
DEL
Mobiltjenesteselskapet Link Mobility fikk et resultat før skatt på 340,5 millioner kroner i første kvartal, sammenlignet med et underskudd på 31 millioner kroner i samme periode ifjor, ifølge en børsmelding mandag.
Driftsinntektene var på nær 1,7 milliarder kroner i første kvartal (1,3).
Resultatet før skatt og avskrivninger (EBITDA) var på nær 140 millioner kroner (117).
Link hadde en kontantbeholdning på 3,4 milliarder kroner per utgangen av første kvartal.
«Den sterke balansen gjør det mulig for Link å fortsette sin historie med uorganisk vekst, med mer enn 30 oppkjøp i Europa i løpet av det siste tiåret», skriver selskapet.
Link legger til å være i «pågående og konstruktive» samtaler over et bredt utvalg oppkjøpskandidater.
06:40
Fredrick C. Ekeseth
DEL
Mobiltjenesteselskapet Link Mobility fikk et resultat før skatt på 340,5 millioner kroner i første kvartal, sammenlignet med et underskudd på 31 millioner kroner i samme periode ifjor, ifølge en børsmelding mandag.
Driftsinntektene var på nær 1,7 milliarder kroner i første kvartal (1,3).
Resultatet før skatt og avskrivninger (EBITDA) var på nær 140 millioner kroner (117).
Link hadde en kontantbeholdning på 3,4 milliarder kroner per utgangen av første kvartal.
«Den sterke balansen gjør det mulig for Link å fortsette sin historie med uorganisk vekst, med mer enn 30 oppkjøp i Europa i løpet av det siste tiåret», skriver selskapet.
Link legger til å være i «pågående og konstruktive» samtaler over et bredt utvalg oppkjøpskandidater.
NordicGuy
07.05.2024 kl 15:16
6748
very bullish into the Q1 report next week. So are all the brokers
Syden
26.04.2024 kl 10:06
7275
Veldig still på Link tråen nå om dagen✅.
Sitter alle å ventet på q1 13 mai.
Heller ikke så mye trøkk i aksjen heller om dagen.
Men jeg tror det beste er å bare sitt stille å vente.
For enten kommer det oppkjøp eller så blir Link kjøpt opp på lik linje
som Kahoot ble sist sommer .
Sitter alle å ventet på q1 13 mai.
Heller ikke så mye trøkk i aksjen heller om dagen.
Men jeg tror det beste er å bare sitt stille å vente.
For enten kommer det oppkjøp eller så blir Link kjøpt opp på lik linje
som Kahoot ble sist sommer .
Syden
21.04.2024 kl 16:28
7693
Hva tror dere vi kan forvente av kurs når q1 legges frem den
13mai? Men tror man det også kan komme noen andre gode nyheter fra selskapet ?
13mai? Men tror man det også kan komme noen andre gode nyheter fra selskapet ?
Skogens
20.04.2024 kl 12:48
7859
Oppfordrer dere til å gå inn på Finansavisen og legge inn deres estimater
https://www.finansavisen.no/ticker/LINK/nyheter
https://www.finansavisen.no/ticker/LINK/nyheter
NordicGuy
17.04.2024 kl 15:50
8106
Pareto Monday:
We expect Q1’24 to mark an extension of the
positive business momentum from 2023, with
organic gross profit growth +8.5% y/y.
• While sequentially down from Q4 (+12.8% y/y),
we highlight a tougher comp & Easter Holiday
falling into Q1, likely to push some messaging
spend over into Q2.
• No big changes to the key cost drivers (salary
negotiations take place in Q2), and we end up
with an EBITDA adj. estimate NOK 158m, +15.2%
y/y vs. consensus at NOK 153m.
• This implies a margin improvement of +3.2pp y/y
(ex. North America), as organic GP growth
continues to drive operational leverage.
We expect Q1’24 to mark an extension of the
positive business momentum from 2023, with
organic gross profit growth +8.5% y/y.
• While sequentially down from Q4 (+12.8% y/y),
we highlight a tougher comp & Easter Holiday
falling into Q1, likely to push some messaging
spend over into Q2.
• No big changes to the key cost drivers (salary
negotiations take place in Q2), and we end up
with an EBITDA adj. estimate NOK 158m, +15.2%
y/y vs. consensus at NOK 153m.
• This implies a margin improvement of +3.2pp y/y
(ex. North America), as organic GP growth
continues to drive operational leverage.
NordicGuy
17.04.2024 kl 15:47
8118
Arctic yesterday:
Continued double-digit growth and ahead of consensus
LINK will report Q1’24 on 13 May and we are 6%/8% ahead of Factset consensus on GP/adj.
EBITDA, modelling 10%/18% organic growth, which is backed by a continued high backlog
and LINK seeing similar trends into 2024. The Q1 report should thus be another positive
trigger with higher growth and showcasing scale, while a continued strong order intake and
more upbeat outlook comments could come on top. We reiterate our BUY and NOK 25/sh
TP as we continue to see favourable risk/reward with the shares trading at 12.5x/11.0x P/
cEPS and 8%/10% FCF yield on our ’24/25e.
Continued double-digit growth and ahead of consensus
LINK will report Q1’24 on 13 May and we are 6%/8% ahead of Factset consensus on GP/adj.
EBITDA, modelling 10%/18% organic growth, which is backed by a continued high backlog
and LINK seeing similar trends into 2024. The Q1 report should thus be another positive
trigger with higher growth and showcasing scale, while a continued strong order intake and
more upbeat outlook comments could come on top. We reiterate our BUY and NOK 25/sh
TP as we continue to see favourable risk/reward with the shares trading at 12.5x/11.0x P/
cEPS and 8%/10% FCF yield on our ’24/25e.
NordicGuy
17.04.2024 kl 15:23
8133
Sparebank today:
(+) LINK MOBILITY: Earlier today, CM.com issued a trading report. Says it sent 2bn messages in 1Q24 which represent a volume growth of 18% compared to last year and C it is now back to growth following four quarters with zero or negative growth in volume.
Link Mobility saw that up-tick from 2Q23 and we expect this to continue in 1Q24 for Link Mobility. Another supportive datapoint on the strong market Link Mobility commented on during 4Q23, reiterated in February and our experience talking to the company lately (with reference to our latest newsflash).
(+) LINK MOBILITY: Earlier today, CM.com issued a trading report. Says it sent 2bn messages in 1Q24 which represent a volume growth of 18% compared to last year and C it is now back to growth following four quarters with zero or negative growth in volume.
Link Mobility saw that up-tick from 2Q23 and we expect this to continue in 1Q24 for Link Mobility. Another supportive datapoint on the strong market Link Mobility commented on during 4Q23, reiterated in February and our experience talking to the company lately (with reference to our latest newsflash).
NordicGuy
16.04.2024 kl 15:11
8289
Arctic very bullish on LINK. Today’s report:
Continued double-digit growth and ahead of consensus
LINK will report Q1’24 on 13 May and we are 6%/8% ahead of Factset consensus on GP/adj. EBITDA, modelling 10%/18% organic growth, which is backed by a continued high backlog and LINK seeing similar trends into 2024. The Q1 report should thus be another positive trigger with higher growth and showcasing scale, while a continued strong order intake and more upbeat outlook comments could come on top. We reiterate our BUY and NOK 25/sh TP as we continue to see favourable risk/reward with the shares trading at 12.5x/11.0x P/cEPS and 8%/10% FCF yield on our ’24/25e.
Continued double-digit growth and ahead of consensus
LINK will report Q1’24 on 13 May and we are 6%/8% ahead of Factset consensus on GP/adj. EBITDA, modelling 10%/18% organic growth, which is backed by a continued high backlog and LINK seeing similar trends into 2024. The Q1 report should thus be another positive trigger with higher growth and showcasing scale, while a continued strong order intake and more upbeat outlook comments could come on top. We reiterate our BUY and NOK 25/sh TP as we continue to see favourable risk/reward with the shares trading at 12.5x/11.0x P/cEPS and 8%/10% FCF yield on our ’24/25e.
Syden
15.04.2024 kl 11:48
8467
Går litt ned idag som mange andre også gjør.
Så vi får bare sitt å vente på at den stabiliser seg over 20 tallet .
Så vi får bare sitt å vente på at den stabiliser seg over 20 tallet .
NordicGuy
10.04.2024 kl 13:22
8695
Perfect, thank you.
It will be the first “cleaned” balance sheet after the sale of the US business - the first time investors will see debt reduced and US business out.
I hear Pareto is organising a roadshow for Link right after the results.
I am long and I am bullish. Since the idea was posted here, the stock is 15% up. My price target when the Q1 is reported is 21-22 NOK
It will be the first “cleaned” balance sheet after the sale of the US business - the first time investors will see debt reduced and US business out.
I hear Pareto is organising a roadshow for Link right after the results.
I am long and I am bullish. Since the idea was posted here, the stock is 15% up. My price target when the Q1 is reported is 21-22 NOK
Sequia
10.04.2024 kl 09:50
8789
Yes, but this is only the conclusion:
When buying Link Mobility you get 1) double digit organic growth supported by high barriers to entry (size needed to get direct access to channels owners), +110% net retention and low single digit churn (due to heavy system integration at the enterprise customers) from 50k customers across Nordics and Europe (of which the latter is lagging the Nordics on penetration by 3-5 years), 2) margin expansion towards 10-12% reported EBITDA margin that we argue is a normalized level given the current gross-margin setup (we currently model 9% in 2024 and 9.2% in 2025, up from 7.6% last year), which yield ~15% EBITDA growth, with 3) a rock-solid cash conversion (EBITDA reported is basically equal to cash flow from operations), 4) a company that has fixed the balance sheet and is now around 1x NIBD/EBITDA, but 5) still trades at P/CEPS (free cash flow to equity per share) of 13x in 2024 and 12x in 2025. That is why we continue to argue this is the best risk/reward within our coverage universe!.
When buying Link Mobility you get 1) double digit organic growth supported by high barriers to entry (size needed to get direct access to channels owners), +110% net retention and low single digit churn (due to heavy system integration at the enterprise customers) from 50k customers across Nordics and Europe (of which the latter is lagging the Nordics on penetration by 3-5 years), 2) margin expansion towards 10-12% reported EBITDA margin that we argue is a normalized level given the current gross-margin setup (we currently model 9% in 2024 and 9.2% in 2025, up from 7.6% last year), which yield ~15% EBITDA growth, with 3) a rock-solid cash conversion (EBITDA reported is basically equal to cash flow from operations), 4) a company that has fixed the balance sheet and is now around 1x NIBD/EBITDA, but 5) still trades at P/CEPS (free cash flow to equity per share) of 13x in 2024 and 12x in 2025. That is why we continue to argue this is the best risk/reward within our coverage universe!.
Syden
10.04.2024 kl 09:40
8809
Ser ut som interessen for Link ser bedre ut.
Hva kan vi forvente oss når Q1 legges frem i mai?
Hva kan vi forvente oss når Q1 legges frem i mai?
NordicGuy
09.04.2024 kl 16:35
8980
Another bullish report by SpareBank on LINK was published today. Does anybody have it?
Syden
12.03.2024 kl 09:49
9553
Men vil dette tilbakekjøpet hjelp på aksjekursen?
For nå har den jobbet mellom 16/18 over lang tid.
Og hva ønsker dem størst aksjonærene her?
For selskapet går bra har masse penger på bok.
Men har aldri betalt utbytte.
Kommer vi her til å se ett salg av selskapet nå i nær fremtid?
For jeg tror vel dem store snart ønsker litt mer her.
Vi har sett mange Tech selskaper har blitt solgt og tatt av børs.
For nå har den jobbet mellom 16/18 over lang tid.
Og hva ønsker dem størst aksjonærene her?
For selskapet går bra har masse penger på bok.
Men har aldri betalt utbytte.
Kommer vi her til å se ett salg av selskapet nå i nær fremtid?
For jeg tror vel dem store snart ønsker litt mer her.
Vi har sett mange Tech selskaper har blitt solgt og tatt av børs.
NordicGuy
11.03.2024 kl 14:29
9736
Pareto summary of the buyback:
Link – NOK 290m (5.7%) share repurchase program
Link announced a 17m share repurchase program this morning. It equates to 5.7% of outstanding shares and NOK 290m at Friday’s closing price of NOK 17/share. Maximum value is set to NOK 400m. The program is running from today until 29th of May, at a max 381,052 share/day (25% of average daily trading volume in Feb). The purpose of the program is to meet obligations arising from employee incentive programs. Following the divestment of its US business, Link has approximately NOK 3.4bn in cash & NOK ~4bn in IBD (incl. lease). BUY/TP NOK 25
Link – NOK 290m (5.7%) share repurchase program
Link announced a 17m share repurchase program this morning. It equates to 5.7% of outstanding shares and NOK 290m at Friday’s closing price of NOK 17/share. Maximum value is set to NOK 400m. The program is running from today until 29th of May, at a max 381,052 share/day (25% of average daily trading volume in Feb). The purpose of the program is to meet obligations arising from employee incentive programs. Following the divestment of its US business, Link has approximately NOK 3.4bn in cash & NOK ~4bn in IBD (incl. lease). BUY/TP NOK 25
NordicGuy
11.03.2024 kl 11:14
9818
Link Management Believes Link share price is too low - Buyback Announced
Oslo, Norway, 11 March 2024. LINK Mobility Holding ASA ("LINK Mobility" or the
"Company") (OSE: LINK) has authorized a share repurchase program that allows the
Company to repurchase up to 17 million of its outstanding shares. The Company is
not obligated to repurchase any shares under the program. The program will be
conducted during the period from 11 March 2024 until 29 May 2024. LINK Mobility
may, however, at any time suspend or terminate the program.
The share repurchase program has been resolved by the Board of Directors of LINK
Mobility and is in accordance with the authorization granted to the Board by the
Annual General Meeting of LINK Mobility on 31 May 2023.
In furtherance of the program, LINK Mobility announces today that it has put in
place an agreement with Arctic Securities AS ("Arctic") for the repurchase of
the Company's shares in open market transactions on the Oslo Stock Exchange.
Under this agreement, Arctic will make its own trading decisions independently
of, and uninfluenced by, LINK Mobility.
Oslo, Norway, 11 March 2024. LINK Mobility Holding ASA ("LINK Mobility" or the
"Company") (OSE: LINK) has authorized a share repurchase program that allows the
Company to repurchase up to 17 million of its outstanding shares. The Company is
not obligated to repurchase any shares under the program. The program will be
conducted during the period from 11 March 2024 until 29 May 2024. LINK Mobility
may, however, at any time suspend or terminate the program.
The share repurchase program has been resolved by the Board of Directors of LINK
Mobility and is in accordance with the authorization granted to the Board by the
Annual General Meeting of LINK Mobility on 31 May 2023.
In furtherance of the program, LINK Mobility announces today that it has put in
place an agreement with Arctic Securities AS ("Arctic") for the repurchase of
the Company's shares in open market transactions on the Oslo Stock Exchange.
Under this agreement, Arctic will make its own trading decisions independently
of, and uninfluenced by, LINK Mobility.
NordicGuy
05.03.2024 kl 16:11
10202
LInk Mobility SpareBank Top Idea list for March:
Attractive cash conversion
Valuation Trigger
1) NIBD/EBITDA 1x in 1Q24 (down from 4.8x) and
2) steady pace on growth and margins in January
• +110% net retention, 50k customers in Europe with low single digit
churn (2% in 3Q23) and attractive gross profit business wins points to
+10% revenue growth and high-single digit gross profit growth.
• With operational scalability inherent in volume increases in general and
from growth skewed towards existing customers increasing volumes in
particular, points to margin expansion and earnings growth more than
gross profit growth (+10% compared to 16% organic in constant
currency in 3Q23 and 12% YTD).
• Very strong cash conversion: EBITDA reported = cash flow from
operations over time (higher in 2023)
• Balance sheet fixed and refinancing risk out of the picture following the
sale of Message Broadcast
• Trades at a 2024 and 2025 P/CEPS of 11.4x and 10.4x.
Attractive cash conversion
Valuation Trigger
1) NIBD/EBITDA 1x in 1Q24 (down from 4.8x) and
2) steady pace on growth and margins in January
• +110% net retention, 50k customers in Europe with low single digit
churn (2% in 3Q23) and attractive gross profit business wins points to
+10% revenue growth and high-single digit gross profit growth.
• With operational scalability inherent in volume increases in general and
from growth skewed towards existing customers increasing volumes in
particular, points to margin expansion and earnings growth more than
gross profit growth (+10% compared to 16% organic in constant
currency in 3Q23 and 12% YTD).
• Very strong cash conversion: EBITDA reported = cash flow from
operations over time (higher in 2023)
• Balance sheet fixed and refinancing risk out of the picture following the
sale of Message Broadcast
• Trades at a 2024 and 2025 P/CEPS of 11.4x and 10.4x.
NordicGuy
05.03.2024 kl 16:11
10206
LInk Mobility SpareBank Top Idea list for March:
Attractive cash conversion
Valuation Trigger
1) NIBD/EBITDA 1x in 1Q24 (down from 4.8x) and
2) steady pace on growth and margins in January
• +110% net retention, 50k customers in Europe with low single digit
churn (2% in 3Q23) and attractive gross profit business wins points to
+10% revenue growth and high-single digit gross profit growth.
• With operational scalability inherent in volume increases in general and
from growth skewed towards existing customers increasing volumes in
particular, points to margin expansion and earnings growth more than
gross profit growth (+10% compared to 16% organic in constant
currency in 3Q23 and 12% YTD).
• Very strong cash conversion: EBITDA reported = cash flow from
operations over time (higher in 2023)
• Balance sheet fixed and refinancing risk out of the picture following the
sale of Message Broadcast
• Trades at a 2024 and 2025 P/CEPS of 11.4x and 10.4x.
Attractive cash conversion
Valuation Trigger
1) NIBD/EBITDA 1x in 1Q24 (down from 4.8x) and
2) steady pace on growth and margins in January
• +110% net retention, 50k customers in Europe with low single digit
churn (2% in 3Q23) and attractive gross profit business wins points to
+10% revenue growth and high-single digit gross profit growth.
• With operational scalability inherent in volume increases in general and
from growth skewed towards existing customers increasing volumes in
particular, points to margin expansion and earnings growth more than
gross profit growth (+10% compared to 16% organic in constant
currency in 3Q23 and 12% YTD).
• Very strong cash conversion: EBITDA reported = cash flow from
operations over time (higher in 2023)
• Balance sheet fixed and refinancing risk out of the picture following the
sale of Message Broadcast
• Trades at a 2024 and 2025 P/CEPS of 11.4x and 10.4x.
NordicGuy
05.03.2024 kl 15:57
10225
Sequia skrev Roadshow, with which investment bank, ABG or SP1M?
Not sure
NordicGuy
05.03.2024 kl 11:16
10335
Good slide from the new presentation they published today:
All-time high revenue at NOK 1 796 million
• Organic growth in fixed FX at 14%
• Strong market push related to Black Week and Christmas trading
All-time high gross profit at NOK 385 million
• Organic growth in fixed FX at 13%
• High growth on profitable OTT channels like RCS expands margins
• FY 23 organic gross profit growth in fixed FX was 7%
All-time high adjusted EBITDA at NOK 181 million
• Organic growth in fixed FX at 24%
• FY 23 organic adjusted EBITDA growth in fixed FX was 15%
• Profitability growth supported by cost reductions completed early 2023
Cash reserve NOK 3.4 billion after divestment of Message Broadcast
• Divestment of US subsidiary at highly attractive valuation closed on 3 January 2024
Leverage after close of US divestment at ~1.1x adjusted EBITDA
• Providing ample financing capacity for inorganic growth through M&A
https://a.storyblok.com/f/151608/x/bd8f9d6cd2/link_stockholm_march_2024.pdf
All-time high revenue at NOK 1 796 million
• Organic growth in fixed FX at 14%
• Strong market push related to Black Week and Christmas trading
All-time high gross profit at NOK 385 million
• Organic growth in fixed FX at 13%
• High growth on profitable OTT channels like RCS expands margins
• FY 23 organic gross profit growth in fixed FX was 7%
All-time high adjusted EBITDA at NOK 181 million
• Organic growth in fixed FX at 24%
• FY 23 organic adjusted EBITDA growth in fixed FX was 15%
• Profitability growth supported by cost reductions completed early 2023
Cash reserve NOK 3.4 billion after divestment of Message Broadcast
• Divestment of US subsidiary at highly attractive valuation closed on 3 January 2024
Leverage after close of US divestment at ~1.1x adjusted EBITDA
• Providing ample financing capacity for inorganic growth through M&A
https://a.storyblok.com/f/151608/x/bd8f9d6cd2/link_stockholm_march_2024.pdf
NordicGuy
05.03.2024 kl 10:46
10373
The latest Link Mobility presentation was published today for their Roadshow in Sweden.
https://www.linkmobility.com/investors/other-reports-and-presentations
https://www.linkmobility.com/investors/other-reports-and-presentations
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