Fearnley har nylig oppjustert kursmålet i Himalaya Shipping til 100 kroner.

Med de rater og inntjening selskapet har er dette selvfølgelig bare første stasjon. Inntjeningen kan forsvare en ny dobling, og aksjen kan passere 200 kroner. Regner med at det skjer allerede i 2024.

"What’s New: TP raised to NOK 100/sh, Buy maintained (Buy, TP NOK 89, 15.01.2023)

• Asset values printing higher – HSHP trades at FSest. 0.8x NAV
• Maiden dividend out (Jan), will significantly rise as ships hit the water
• FS 10% above CS 2024 EBITDA – Market Fundamentals are supportive

HSHP delivered its first positive result in 4Q, with TCE averaging USD 34.4k/d. While rates have come down in January and HSHP having taken some coverage, the run-rate still sees HSHP generating cash. Moreover, the maiden dividend, while small, is now out (1c/sh for Jan). 9 of 12 ships are on the water and all have long-term index linked contracts. I.e., on our USD 26k/d ‘24e cape estimate, the equity story is materializing for HSHP, and we expect dividends to continue picking up as all ships are delivered through the year.

Asset values have continued to print higher, and we now pin HSHP NAV at NOK 96/sh (0.8x P/NAV). This, combined with still, sober street expectations (FS 10% above CS ’24 EBITDA), we remain optimistic on the equity. Market wise, data also continues to support through low fleet growth, strong demand data (January Dry bulk loadings up 6% y/y in Jan, fleet growth at 2.6% y/y) and low congestion levels. Basis raised estimates and increased values, we increase our TP to NOK 100/sh, Buy maintained.

Maiden dividend out, will steadily rise – Taken coverage through 1Q
HSHP delivered EPSadj. at 11c/sh in 4Q and average TCE at USD 34.4k/d (Baltic 5TC index was USD 28.1k/d). For January, HSHP has announced fleet TCE at USD 28.4k/d, i.e., with a cash break/even at around USD 24k/d, HSHP has over 4Q and is at the current run-rate generating cash (maiden 1c/sh dividend announced for January). All of HSHPs 12x Newcastlemax’s have secured long-term contracts, though 5x have been converted to fixed charters through 1q24 (whilst one is permanently fixed). Thereafter, all ships are index-linked.

Valuation – Buy, TP NOK 100/sh
We increase our TP to NOK 100/sh (89/sh), equivalent to 0.9x 1yr fwd NAV. We argue this is fair for now as all ships are yet to hit the water and the real dividend story starts in 2025e. TP is equivalent to c. 6x ‘25e P/E."

https://himalaya-shipping.com/