Norsk Titanium AS
Recommendation: Buy · Target Price: NOK 3.5 · Current Share Price: NOK 2.09

IoC: Printing the future
We initiate coverage of Norsk Titanium (NTI) with a Buy recommendation and a TP of NOK 3.5 per share. After years of development and product validation by major customers, NTI stands at an inflection point from which it will scale up serial production. NTI's proprietary RPD® technology produces titanium parts with 75% less energy and raw material usage, takes 90% less time and a 40% cost reduction compared to conventional manufacturing methods. We believe that geopolitical tensions and volatile pricing are likely to disrupt the titanium value chain, driving customers to seek more cost-effective and faster production methods, which in turn will fuel growth for NTI. As the only Additive Manufacturing (AM) company with FAA approval, currently supplying both Boeing and Airbus with structural titanium parts, we believe the market undervalues the probability of its success. We believe the current share price reflects only a ~30% probability of the company reaching its 2026 revenue target of USD 150m.
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Moving into serial part production and solid revenue growth
Several critical factors are now in place for NTI. Its technology has been qualified by European and U.S. aviation authorities, defence companies, and major airplane manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing. Furthermore, partly backed by a USD 125m investment from the State of New York, NTI operates a fully functional production facility of 35 RPD® machines, positioning it as the only titanium AM company of this scale. Current titanium manufacturing processes are highly inefficient, as they consume significant amounts of energy, generates substantial waste, and are time-consuming. As a result, multiple industries are actively seeking more efficient alternatives, making NTI’s technology particularly attractive. NTI is set to become a trusted Tier 1 supplier, with recent partnerships with Boeing and Airbus marking its shift from R&D to full-scale production. This transition will drive revenue growth as NTI secures larger contracts and expands its role in the supply chain.

We currently expect NTI to be fully funded to reach cash break-even
Norsk Titanium has been through a long development-phase, with USD >325m equity invested, and a USD 125m grant from The State of New York. All CapEx has been accounted for, and 32 out of the 35 RPD® machines are leased for just USD 1 per year until 2030, making capital requirements modest going forward. As serial production ramps up, we expect some of NTI’s NWC needs to be supported by extraordinary NWC facilities. We believe the company will achieve cash break-even in H2/26. Additionally, with all outstanding warrants expected to be exercised by YE’24, we anticipate the company to be fully funded to reach its long-term revenue target of USD 300m by 2028.

We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and a NOK 3.5/sh TP
As we believe Norsk Titanium is fully funded to reach full capacity, we find the implied probability of success favourable in the case. Based on NTI’s target of USD 150m in revenues by 2026, along with an EBITDA margin of 30% and a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple, the current share price implies approximately a 30% probability of this target. Given recent contract wins, and the stamp of approval with Tier-1 customers, we believe 30% implied probability yields a favourable risk/reward for the equity. It’s important to note that NTI has already incurred all necessary CapEx to reach full utilization and is fully funded, which justifies a premium. Our TP of NOK 3.5/sh reflects a 49% probability that the company achieves USD 150m in sales by 2026.