Viktige insentiver og nåværende trender

IRAs kjerneinsentiver som tar sikte på å tiltrekke seg investeringer i solcelleproduksjon (PV) er i form av skattefradrag for produksjon.

45X-incentivene er:

$3/kg for polysilisium
$12 per kvadratmeter (~$0,05/Watt) for waferproduksjon
$0,04/Watt for celler
$0,07/Watt for moduler
Disse insentivene gir en betydelig forbedring av fabrikkøkonomien for hvert av trinnene ovenfor i verdikjeden. Til tross for dette har produsentene konsentrert seg om modulmontering, som krever den laveste kapitalinvesteringen og den korteste tiden å bringe på nett. Ved utgangen av 2025 forventes om lag 60 GW modulmonteringskapasitet å være i drift med ytterligere 70 GW i planleggingsfasen. Imidlertid har bare to store selskaper, QCells og Norsun, annonsert planer for produksjonsanlegg for ingot og wafer med en samlet kapasitet på 8 GW, mindre enn 15 % av den planlagte modulkapasiteten.

Konklusjoner

De økonomiske implikasjonene av IRA-produksjonsinsentivene, handelssaken fra april 2024 og DC-policyoppdateringene kombinert vil påvirke det amerikanske produksjonslandskapet for solenergi betydelig.

Å oppmuntre innenlandsk produksjon av wafere og celler vil skape arbeidsplasser, øke kompetansen og fremme bærekraftig økonomisk vekst. Å utvikle en komplett innenlandsk forsyningskjede for solcellepaneler – fra polysilisiumproduksjon til wafer- og celleproduksjon og endelig modulmontering – vil hjelpe USA med å oppnå energiuavhengighet.

De siste oppdateringene gjør solcelle- og waferproduksjon i USA mer attraktivt, men vil kreve kontinuerlige forbedringer. Vi forventer flere produksjonskunngjøringer gjennom 2024 for å betjene den første bølgen av solcellemodulprodusenter.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/solar-energy-manufacturers-for-america-sema-coalition_strengthening-us-solar-manufacturing-the-activity-7216103252038139904-VZtr?utm_source=combined_share_message&utm_medium=member_ios

Amid the bloodletting in batteries and EVs, two US startups--Sila Nanotechnologies, Inc. and Group14 Technologies --seem on the verge of a commercial breakout, getting their high-range, fast-charge silicon anodes into the EVs of about seven carmakers. The Electric.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/steve-levine-1901926_the-electric-seven-ev-makers-prepare-to-activity-7216047931097837568-jmWE?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

Sila Nanotechnologies and Group14 Technologies say they are almost ready to begin high-volume commercial shipments of their competing silicon electrodes. Sila CEO Gene Berdichevsky said that in a little over a year, the company would ship commercial-grade silicon anodes to four customers, including Mercedes-Benz, Panasonic, which makes batteries for Tesla and other EV makers, and two other automotive companies.

California-based Sila will manufacture the anodes at a gigafactory it is building in Moses Lake, Wash. Group14, based in Woodinville, Wash., will ship silicon anodes to three undisclosed EV and EV battery customers by the end of this year from a gigafactory it’s building with battery maker SK On in South Korea, said Group14 CEO Rick Luebbe.

Mercedes is the only automaker to announce publicly that it will use such anodes. A Mercedes spokesperson told me the company will offer Sila’s electrodes as an option in its ultraluxury G-Class SUVs in the “mid-decade,” though declined to specify a year. Renault may be next: In an interview last week, Philippe Brunet, senior vice president of EV and powertrain for Ampère, Renault's parent company, told me the French carmaker would deploy silicon anodes in the next few years, but declined to say who would be the supplier.

High-silicon electrodes are a battery breakthrough that should lead to better range and faster charging. And we may soon see some concrete products soon that use those batteries, reports The Information's Steve LeVine today:

That story notes that as the whole industry is chasing cheaper, "good enough" batteries—think LFP—these silicon-anode batteries could command a premium at first, hence why Mercedes is eager to deploy them:

In recent months, automakers have made clear that they care most about cost. Berdichevsky and Luebbe argue that they can compete with graphite, but they also appear to want a premium price for their anodes’ better performance. It’s not a surprise that the first commercial vehicle to use the anodes will be an ultraluxury Mercedes. Berdichevsky noted that consumers pay more for the iPhone than for most other brands because many view it as a superior product. And both he and Luebbe argued that the automakers are likely to charge more for vehicles that go farther and charge faster because of their anode. “They can charge a really nice premium because charge anxiety is the single biggest inhibitor to EV adoption right now,” Luebbe said.

https://insideevs.com/news/725840/porsche-cm-electric-solid-state/

Mercedes-Benz has set a target of reducing the costs of its EV batteries by as much as 30% by increasing their energy density.

The German firm aims to increase the energy density of its batteries to 0.9kWh per litre. The 120kWh battery in its most efficient current EV, the EQS saloon, has an energy density of 0.55kWh per litre.

This new target also goes beyond the 0.8kWh per litre that Mercedes claims to be achieving from lithium ion batteries with a silicon composite anode, developed with American company Sila Nanotechnologies and earmarked for future versions of the electric G-Class.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-tech%2C-development-and-manufacturing/mercedes-benz-targets-30-cheaper-batteries

Group14 and CustomCells Sign a Multi-Year Supply Agreement for Advanced Silicon Battery Material
NEWS PROVIDED BY
Group14 Technologies
Jul 08, 2024, 03:30 ET

WOODINVILLE, Wash. and ITZEHOE, Germany, July 8, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- German battery pioneer CustomCells and Group14 Technologies, the world's largest global manufacturer and supplier of advanced silicon battery material, today announced they have signed a multi-year supply agreement, enabling CustomCells to procure SCC55®, Group14's advanced silicon battery material.

CustomCells is planning to develop a factory in the United States with a capacity of up to 2GWh, underlining their North American growth plans. This supply agreement between Group14 and CustomCells is expected to exceed US$300M of contract value to secure a substantial supply of SCC55® beyond 2030, ensuring CustomCells' long-term capability to meet demand for their high-performance battery cells.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/group14-and-customcells-sign-a-multi-year-supply-agreement-for-advanced-silicon-battery-material-302190506.html

BBC News rapport om QSells Georgia og innenlands produksjon.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ex9EQA2ZEcQ