Viktige insentiver og nåværende trender

IRAs kjerneinsentiver som tar sikte på å tiltrekke seg investeringer i solcelleproduksjon (PV) er i form av skattefradrag for produksjon.

45X-incentivene er:

$3/kg for polysilisium
$12 per kvadratmeter (~$0,05/Watt) for waferproduksjon
$0,04/Watt for celler
$0,07/Watt for moduler
Disse insentivene gir en betydelig forbedring av fabrikkøkonomien for hvert av trinnene ovenfor i verdikjeden. Til tross for dette har produsentene konsentrert seg om modulmontering, som krever den laveste kapitalinvesteringen og den korteste tiden å bringe på nett. Ved utgangen av 2025 forventes om lag 60 GW modulmonteringskapasitet å være i drift med ytterligere 70 GW i planleggingsfasen. Imidlertid har bare to store selskaper, QCells og Norsun, annonsert planer for produksjonsanlegg for ingot og wafer med en samlet kapasitet på 8 GW, mindre enn 15 % av den planlagte modulkapasiteten.

Konklusjoner

De økonomiske implikasjonene av IRA-produksjonsinsentivene, handelssaken fra april 2024 og DC-policyoppdateringene kombinert vil påvirke det amerikanske produksjonslandskapet for solenergi betydelig.

Å oppmuntre innenlandsk produksjon av wafere og celler vil skape arbeidsplasser, øke kompetansen og fremme bærekraftig økonomisk vekst. Å utvikle en komplett innenlandsk forsyningskjede for solcellepaneler – fra polysilisiumproduksjon til wafer- og celleproduksjon og endelig modulmontering – vil hjelpe USA med å oppnå energiuavhengighet.

De siste oppdateringene gjør solcelle- og waferproduksjon i USA mer attraktivt, men vil kreve kontinuerlige forbedringer. Vi forventer flere produksjonskunngjøringer gjennom 2024 for å betjene den første bølgen av solcellemodulprodusenter.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/solar-energy-manufacturers-for-america-sema-coalition_strengthening-us-solar-manufacturing-the-activity-7216103252038139904-VZtr?utm_source=combined_share_message&utm_medium=member_ios

Amid the bloodletting in batteries and EVs, two US startups--Sila Nanotechnologies, Inc. and Group14 Technologies --seem on the verge of a commercial breakout, getting their high-range, fast-charge silicon anodes into the EVs of about seven carmakers. The Electric.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/steve-levine-1901926_the-electric-seven-ev-makers-prepare-to-activity-7216047931097837568-jmWE?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

Sila Nanotechnologies and Group14 Technologies say they are almost ready to begin high-volume commercial shipments of their competing silicon electrodes. Sila CEO Gene Berdichevsky said that in a little over a year, the company would ship commercial-grade silicon anodes to four customers, including Mercedes-Benz, Panasonic, which makes batteries for Tesla and other EV makers, and two other automotive companies.

California-based Sila will manufacture the anodes at a gigafactory it is building in Moses Lake, Wash. Group14, based in Woodinville, Wash., will ship silicon anodes to three undisclosed EV and EV battery customers by the end of this year from a gigafactory it’s building with battery maker SK On in South Korea, said Group14 CEO Rick Luebbe.

Mercedes is the only automaker to announce publicly that it will use such anodes. A Mercedes spokesperson told me the company will offer Sila’s electrodes as an option in its ultraluxury G-Class SUVs in the “mid-decade,” though declined to specify a year. Renault may be next: In an interview last week, Philippe Brunet, senior vice president of EV and powertrain for Ampère, Renault's parent company, told me the French carmaker would deploy silicon anodes in the next few years, but declined to say who would be the supplier.

High-silicon electrodes are a battery breakthrough that should lead to better range and faster charging. And we may soon see some concrete products soon that use those batteries, reports The Information's Steve LeVine today:

That story notes that as the whole industry is chasing cheaper, "good enough" batteries—think LFP—these silicon-anode batteries could command a premium at first, hence why Mercedes is eager to deploy them:

In recent months, automakers have made clear that they care most about cost. Berdichevsky and Luebbe argue that they can compete with graphite, but they also appear to want a premium price for their anodes’ better performance. It’s not a surprise that the first commercial vehicle to use the anodes will be an ultraluxury Mercedes. Berdichevsky noted that consumers pay more for the iPhone than for most other brands because many view it as a superior product. And both he and Luebbe argued that the automakers are likely to charge more for vehicles that go farther and charge faster because of their anode. “They can charge a really nice premium because charge anxiety is the single biggest inhibitor to EV adoption right now,” Luebbe said.

https://insideevs.com/news/725840/porsche-cm-electric-solid-state/

Mercedes-Benz has set a target of reducing the costs of its EV batteries by as much as 30% by increasing their energy density.

The German firm aims to increase the energy density of its batteries to 0.9kWh per litre. The 120kWh battery in its most efficient current EV, the EQS saloon, has an energy density of 0.55kWh per litre.

This new target also goes beyond the 0.8kWh per litre that Mercedes claims to be achieving from lithium ion batteries with a silicon composite anode, developed with American company Sila Nanotechnologies and earmarked for future versions of the electric G-Class.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-tech%2C-development-and-manufacturing/mercedes-benz-targets-30-cheaper-batteries

Group14 and CustomCells Sign a Multi-Year Supply Agreement for Advanced Silicon Battery Material
NEWS PROVIDED BY
Group14 Technologies
Jul 08, 2024, 03:30 ET

WOODINVILLE, Wash. and ITZEHOE, Germany, July 8, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- German battery pioneer CustomCells and Group14 Technologies, the world's largest global manufacturer and supplier of advanced silicon battery material, today announced they have signed a multi-year supply agreement, enabling CustomCells to procure SCC55®, Group14's advanced silicon battery material.

CustomCells is planning to develop a factory in the United States with a capacity of up to 2GWh, underlining their North American growth plans. This supply agreement between Group14 and CustomCells is expected to exceed US$300M of contract value to secure a substantial supply of SCC55® beyond 2030, ensuring CustomCells' long-term capability to meet demand for their high-performance battery cells.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/group14-and-customcells-sign-a-multi-year-supply-agreement-for-advanced-silicon-battery-material-302190506.html

BBC News rapport om QSells Georgia og innenlands produksjon.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ex9EQA2ZEcQ

Dette må jo være så nære en kontrakt en kan komme uten å si noe 😂

polysilisium utenfor Kina ligger stabilt på 21,50 dollar/kg.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bernreuter-research_polysilicon-price-wafer-activity-7217077696269344768-lf4-?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

Snart tikker kontraktene med batteriselskapene inn,det vil bli en gamechanger for REC!Helt crazy at markedet ikke har våknet opp,og skjønner dette enda🙂Prisingen på REC skal høyt fremover.ALT kommer i gang i 2024-2025!ML vil være 100% oppe og levere poly,samt silangassetterspørrselen vil skyte i været. Spent på hva de gjør med kapasiteten, for REC vil ikke klare å levere det markedet trenger de neste årene!

Hvor stabil/ustabil har prisene vært historisk sett utenfor Kina?

Nå skal jeg ikke bruke denne nyhets kanalen til annet enn nyheter. Men ser du på rapporten så viser det tilbake frem til des i fjor, og den grønne linjen som er utenfor Kina er helt rett. Det vil si stabilt på dette nivået. Dette beviser at utenfor kina er ikke mye opp og ned og det er bra for REC.

Du har helt ret.
Salget vil stikke helt af.
Er de ikke ved at udbygge silan produktionen, så de kan leverer.
Næste år står 2 helt nye fabrikker klar til at modtage Silan , kan kun blive en kæmpe forretning for RECSI.
Ingen tvivl om kursen skal betydeligt op
og dem der er short nu, vil få mega tab.
Alt kommer igang i 2024-2025, højest lidt over 2 mdr. til første levering, kan sagtens ske før

Håper dere fikser det som er igjen og sender snarest en børsmelding.

REC Silicon
We had an amazing week at SEMICON West in San Francisco. We’ve met with industry colleagues, participated in our Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG) meeting, and while on the tradeshow floor, explored innovations and emerging trends in the semiconductor industry. This event is a top-notch educational experience and a truly rewarding opportunity that we always enjoy attending.

It was great to see so many of you again! Until next year!

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rec-silicon_wearerecsilicon-semiconwest-activity-7217181229371056133-YfT4?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

Ser at det gjøres et poeng av prisene utenfor Kina. Jeg har vært inne på dette tidligere, og det er at vi vet absolutt intet om i hvor stor grad Kina-prisene er vektlagt i avtalen med Hanwha. Nå er det opptil flere her på trådene som har gått frem som om de kjenner avtaledetaljene, men det gjør de definitivt ikke. Markedet er beviselig temmelig avmålt til nevnte. Og tidvis høres det ut på disse trådene som om noen sitter på positive breaking news hva gjelder REC. Her må vi bare innrømmer at de profesjonelle storinvestorene er adskillig mer oppegående enn hvilken som forumleamikk.

Har sagt det før, jeg tror ikke at REC vil gjøre den store kula i sine leveranser til Hanwha. Den som i sin tid stod med lua i hånda for å gjøre avtale med superkommersielle Hanwha, var så å si uten forhandlingskort. Setter følgelig min lit til silangass-leveranser til batteriindustrien. Et par store avtaler der, kan fort gjøre susen.

Bygg en givende karriere sammen med oss! Vi søker en innkjøpskoordinator til vårt Moses Lake-team!

Finn ut mer, eller søk raskt og enkelt: www.recsilicon.com/careers

#WeAreRECSilicon #MosesLake #GrantCountyWA #hiring #applytoday #openpositions #opportunity #procurementcoordinator #procurementjobs

At Hanwha-leveransen utløser statlig skatte-refusjon (3USD pr kg) bør ikke glemmes. Men enig i at silangass kan gi større fortjeneste. Og der bør vil ha meldinger om nye kontrakter innen året er omme.

@SolarInmass: Stay in the game, it’s a big game

https://x.com/solarinmass/status/1812186606318883132?s=46

The United States, the second largest economy in the world, accounts for 15% of global clean energy investment, and remains a major investor in oil and gas
The United States has taken important steps to scale up investments in clean energy. These investments overtook the spending that went to fossil fuels in 2020 – when oil and gas investments fell sharply – and increased to USD 280 billion in 2023 from USD 200 billion in 2020. The country also invests a significant amount in oil and gas: for every USD 1.4 spent on clean energy in 2023, US investors directed 1 USD to fossil fuels. (That is slightly below the global average of USD 1.8.)

New legislative vehicles supporting clean energy investment in the United States are the Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, which allocated around USD 550 billion for clean energy and infrastructure, and the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, which provides an estimated USD 370 billion in funding to promote energy security and combat climate change.

These incentives are prompting faster deployment and the development of new clean energy manufacturing capacities. By the end of 2023, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act allocated nearly USD 75 billion to clean energy, including projects related to grid improvement and expansion (USD 21.3 billion), clean energy demonstrations (USD 21.5 billion), energy efficiency (USD 6.5 billion) and clean energy manufacturing and workforce development (USD 8.6 billion). Meanwhile, tax credits from the IRA make clean energy projects in the United States more competitive and incentivise investment in vulnerable energy communities.

The increase in clean energy investment moves capital flows towards alignment with the long-term goal, announced in 2021, to achieve economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050. However, clean energy investors have faced some headwinds, including high financing costs due to higher benchmark interest rates (that reached over 5.0% since the summer of 2023). Permitting issues and the finalization of tax credit guidance under the IRA have also meant delays in some cases.

$2 billion/day

Global clean energy investments to reach $2t in 2024

Emerging and developing markets, however, remain underfunded.

Clean energy technologies and infrastructure spending is expected to reach $2t in 2024, exceeding the spending on fossil fuels for the second time in a row, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In the World Energy Investment report, IEA said the $2t expenditure will cover renewables, electric vehicles, nuclear power, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency improvements and heat pumps.

Slightly over $1t will go to coal, gas, and oil.

“Clean energy investment is setting new records even in challenging economic conditions, highlighting the momentum behind the new global energy economy. For every dollar going to fossil fuels today, almost two dollars are invested in clean energy,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

However, the IEA noted that there are still imbalances as only $300b spending on clean energy will be going to emerging and developing economies, outside of China, led by India and Brazil, representing around 15% of the global clean energy investments.

China is expected to dominate the clean energy investments, estimated to reach $675b, followed by Europe and the US with $370b and $315b investments, respectively.

“The rise in clean energy spending is underpinned by strong economics, by continued cost reductions and by considerations of energy security. But there is a strong element of industrial policy, too, as major economies compete for advantage in new clean energy supply chains,” Birol said.

“More must be done to ensure that investment reaches the places where it is needed most, in particular the developing economies where access to affordable, sustainable and secure energy is severely lacking today,” he added.
https://x.com/jigarshahdc/status/1811749223206961514?s=46

We applaud U.S. Senators Jon Ossoff and Sherrod Brown for the continued work to protect domestic solar manufacturing from unfair trade practices, urging the CBP to enforce the anti-stockpiling provision to prevent importers from evading tariffs: https://lnkd.in/edGtFsKH

Sens. Ossoff, Brown Pressing Biden Administration to Protect Domestic Solar Manufacturing from Antidumping Practices
July 8, 2024
In February, Sens. Ossoff & Brown led a group of Senators pressing the Biden Administration to support U.S. manufacturing of strategic solar components

Washington, D.C. — U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff is continuing his work to protect domestic solar manufacturing from unfair trade practices.

Sens. Ossoff and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) launched an inquiry with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) requesting detailed information about how the Biden Administration will enforce provisions designed to prevent importers from evading tariffs by stockpiling solar modules imported during the moratorium that ended on June 6.

“According to the White House, your Agency has announced that it will ‘vigorously enforce’ the anti-stockpiling provision, including by ‘requiring importers to provide CBP a certification of solar module utilization with detailed information about the modules being deployed.’ We urge that vigorous enforcement in the interest of American energy independence and energy security,” Sens. Ossoff and Brown wrote.

Sen. Ossoff continues working to boost domestic solar manufacturing and strengthen American energy independence.

In April, Sen. Ossoff pressed the Biden Administration to end the emergency declared in June 2022 that authorized the U.S. Department of Commerce to waive certain duties on solar products manufactured in China and imported from Southeast Asian countries.

In March, Sens. Ossoff and Rev. Warnock successfully pressed the Biden Administration to eliminate the tariff exemption for bifacial modules under Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974 to boost the competitive advantage of American bifacial module manufacturers.

In February, Sen. Ossoff led a group of Senators pressing the Biden Administration to ensure domestic production of wafers and polysilicon is properly incentivized through the Inflation Reduction Act’s bonus tax credit for domestic content, as intended by Congress, to help American solar manufacturing compete with China.

In January, Sen. Ossoff successfully led a bipartisan group of Senators urging President Biden to increase tariffs on Chinese-made solar module, cell, and wafer imports under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.