Shelly Group - 50% revenue growth, 25% EBIT magins, no debt...

NordicGuy
SHELLY 10.09.2024 kl 14:49 413

Montega research published today:

Market cap. (in EUR m) 628.2
Enterprise Value (in EUR m) 618.8

Ticker BUL: SLYG

Guidance 2024
- Sales (in EUR m) 105
- EBIT (in EUR m) 26


IFA feedback: Shelly lays the foundation for the next growth
phase

Shelly currently (06.09. – 10.09.) presents itself at the IFA technology fair in Berlin with a
booth in the Smart Home area. We believe that both the size of the booth and the high
visitor traffic in comparison to other industry suppliers confirm Shelly’s positive
development in the last few years. Our discussion with Co-CEO Wolfgang Kirsch mainly
focused on the integration of the acquired LOQED, the further expansion of internal
team structures and the long-term strategy which is to be explained at the Capital
Market Days in November.

LOQED as a prime example for an acquisition: Early in July, Shelly announced the
acquisition of the Dutch LOQED B.V. as part of an asset deal, contributing to the time
and cost-efficient (purchase price: EUR 0.15m) development of a new product category
(smart locks). The company is working on integrating the products both on a hardware
and software level in Bulgaria to be able to present a next-gen product with ShellyOS
next year. Since the acquisition, Shelly has also made significant advances regarding
the sale of its old product generation by agreeing on improved purchase conditions
and expanding its sales using the pan-European retailer network. We expect the launch
of the next-gen products to result in additional tailwind and tangible revenue
contributions in the course of 2025. Security, the Smart Home sub-segment which
includes locks as well as outdoor and indoor cameras, has also been present across
extensive areas at the IFA by suppliers such as IMOU.

Expansion of team structures: Irrespective of the progress made so far, Shelly
continuously expands its corporate structures. Following the recruitment of Karsten
Sommer as Managing Director for the all-important DACH region (cf. Comment on 28
August 2024), the company currently focuses on Finance, HR and Procurement.
Particularly worth mentioning is the set-up of a dedicated purchasing department,
from which the company hopes to achieve better purchasing conditions from Chinese
suppliers in terms of prices as well as payment conditions in the years to come. It is
particularly the high working capital ratio, which we expect to grow to over 50% for the
first time this year (MONe: 51.8%, +5.8pp yoy), which currently still prevents operating
margins from resulting in significant free cash flows as well. Based on the measures
taken we anticipate a slight reduction of the WC ratio to 49.4% next year which should
be reflected in a double-digit positive FCF of EUR 11.2m for the first time in the
company’s history.

Conclusion: The outstanding development of the Shelly Group has been demonstrated
once again this year at the IFA. In comparison to competitors, the products excel with a
combination of high performance, stylish design and an attractive price point.
Furthermore, there is still significant long-term growth potential, driven by an expansion
of the product portfolio as evidenced by the LOQED acquisition. Based on the
combination of extraordinarily high growth and an attractive valuation (PER 2025e:
19.6), we confirm our buy rating with a price target of EUR 49.00.
NordicGuy
10.10.2024 kl 13:47 137

Montega Research on Shelly:

IFA feedback: Shelly lays the foundation for the next growth
phase
Shelly currently (06.09. – 10.09.) presents itself at the IFA technology fair in Berlin with a
booth in the Smart Home area. We believe that both the size of the booth and the high
visitor traffic in comparison to other industry suppliers confirm Shelly’s positive
development in the last few years. Our discussion with Co-CEO Wolfgang Kirsch mainly
focused on the integration of the acquired LOQED, the further expansion of internal
team structures and the long-term strategy which is to be explained at the Capital
Market Days in November.
LOQED as a prime example for an acquisition: Early in July, Shelly announced the
acquisition of the Dutch LOQED B.V. as part of an asset deal, contributing to the time
and cost-efficient (purchase price: EUR 0.15m) development of a new product category
(smart locks). The company is working on integrating the products both on a hardware
and software level in Bulgaria to be able to present a next-gen product with ShellyOS
next year. Since the acquisition, Shelly has also made significant advances regarding
the sale of its old product generation by agreeing on improved purchase conditions
and expanding its sales using the pan-European retailer network. We expect the launch
of the next-gen products to result in additional tailwind and tangible revenue
contributions in the course of 2025. Security, the Smart Home sub-segment which
includes locks as well as outdoor and indoor cameras, has also been present across
extensive areas at the IFA by suppliers such as IMOU.
Expansion of team structures: Irrespective of the progress made so far, Shelly
continuously expands its corporate structures. Following the recruitment of Karsten
Sommer as Managing Director for the all-important DACH region (cf. Comment on 28
August 2024), the company currently focuses on Finance, HR and Procurement.
Particularly worth mentioning is the set-up of a dedicated purchasing department,
from which the company hopes to achieve better purchasing conditions from Chinese
suppliers in terms of prices as well as payment conditions in the years to come. It is
particularly the high working capital ratio, which we expect to grow to over 50% for the
first time this year (MONe: 51.8%, +5.8pp yoy), which currently still prevents operating
margins from resulting in significant free cash flows as well. Based on the measures
taken we anticipate a slight reduction of the WC ratio to 49.4% next year which should
be reflected in a double-digit positive FCF of EUR 11.2m for the first time in the
company’s history.
Conclusion: The outstanding development of the Shelly Group has been demonstrated
once again this year at the IFA. In comparison to competitors, the products excel with a
combination of high performance, stylish design and an attractive price point.
Furthermore, there is still significant long-term growth potential, driven by an expansion
of the product portfolio as evidenced by the LOQED acquisition. Based on the
combination of extraordinarily high growth and an attractive valuation (PER 2025e:
19.6), we confirm our buy rating with a price target of EUR 49.00.
NordicGuy
03.10.2024 kl 15:19 233

Sofia / Munich, 2 October 2024 – Shelly Group AD (Ticker SLYG / ISIN: BG1100003166) (“Shelly Group” / “the Company“), a provider of IoT and smart building solutions based in Sofia, Bulgaria, is pleased to invite investors, analysts and financial media to attend its 1st Capital Markets Day on 5 November live in Frankfurt/Main, Germany, or virtually via webcast. The formal invitation with a complete agenda and information on registration will follow next week.

Dimitar Dimitrov, CEO of Shelly Group: “At our Capital Markets Day, we'll be showing why Shelly is special and what's new. Shelly stands out for its fast time-to-market for innovative solutions: Expect new developments in sensor technology, smart locks, and where smart home technology is heading! With Shelly X, we are presenting the next big innovation in the smart home sector, combining the latest technology with easy-to-use, scalable solutions.”

Co-CEOs Dimitar Dimitrov and Wolfgang Kirsch will elaborate on how Shelly Group is disrupting the market for smart building solutions, show how Shelly products are conquering the clients’ hearts and homes, outline business strategy and growth drivers, and present its capital markets strategy and long-run prospects until 2030.

For a more convenient planning of arrival and departure, the Capital Markets Day will begin at 11.30 CET with registration and a light snack lunch. The presentations will start at 12.30 CET. From 16.00 CET, a get-together will be held on site for participants to round off the day with snacks and drinks and inspiring discussions.