Dette var veldig spennende greier og svært bra analysearbeid. Utrolig hvor sterk profitt Panoro også har på lave oljepriser som 50-55 USD!
Også prisingen av Panoro aksjen også - PE tall på 2-4 avhengig av oljepris eller cashflow prising på 0.4-2. Vanvittig!
Og 40-60 kroner i kursmål.....dette kan bli skikkelig gøy!

Analysen ligger her:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/49022789-moonflash2017/5251519-panoro-energy-asa-set-big-stock-rally-stock-price-valuation-come-investors-discover

Panoro Energy ASA - Set For A Big Stock Rally As Stock Price And Valuation Have Come Down, Investors Discover Incredible Upside Potential Of "New Panoro"
Dec. 23, 2018 6:19 PM ET

Summary
Panoro Energy ASA (PEN NO, PESAF, "PEN", "Panoro") has through 2018 gone through a radical transformation as a company, and creating big value for shareholders in the process.

PEN has 12-16 USD in op ex per barrel for its shallow water (near/onshore) oil production creating high profits even with oil prices in the 50-55 USD range.

Production will grow 1200% from 2018 to 2020, as a result of organic growth, and through "world class" acquisitions. Production is likely to hit 4.5-5k bpd by end 2020.

The big Q418 stockmarket correction has created the best buying opportunity in PEN´s history. The main driver of PEN´s drop has been retail investor "panic", as retail has dumped share.

The correction creates a unique buying opportunity at an incredible value, as cashflow mutiples going forward are incredibly low, with cashflow multiples as low as 0.4-2x on 2020 estimates!

Panoro is debt free on a net debt basis, meaning low financial risk. As a low cost producer, it also has high earnings generation with lower oil prices (55 USD).

In order to understand the valuation of Panoro (OSLO: PEN NO) I will divide Panoro as a company into several parts. The first part is about PEN as a significant oil producer with access to, and ownership in a high quality production infrastructure. Panoro is already generating significant cashflow, which will rise rapidly over the next 18 month period. The company will be able to produce oil for 20 years going forward based on PEN´s current reserves and resources, i.e. from oil that PEN already has discovered and is recoverable through the company´s production infrastructure.

The second part of the valuation is the value of the company´s massive exploration potential. Panoro´s exploration potential has grown a lot through 2018 due to PEN´s very attractive 2 acquisitions in Tunisia, and successes in Gabon. Panoro now owns around 60% of oil blocks with 250 million barrels of exploration potential in Tunisia. Furthermore, it owns 7.5% of the Ruche Area in Gabon, also known as Dussafu, an area with more than 20 prospects with a total of 1 billion barrels of oil in exploration potential. One of the prospects within this cluster of oil prospects were drilled with success in 2018, proving to hold a lot of oil. It is known as Ruche North East (Ruche NE). The discovery size has yet to be disclosed by the field owners, but is likely to be close to Tortue in size based on indications from the Dussafu field owners. Currently Tortue, one of the Dussafu discoveries which has been put into production, is estimated to hold 30-40 million barrels of 2P reserves, with an additional 30 million barrels of contingent reserves. Tortue, Ruche, Ruche NE, Mobuenga and Walt Whitman, the current 5 Dussafu area discoveries, are by field analysts and the oil companies involved estimated to be bigger than 150 million barrels of oil!

The third part of the value is the X factor, which is a function of PEN´s world class management and board of directors. Needless, to list their names, as they can be found on their web site. However, it is worth repeating that the CEO, and full board were new to the company from late 2014 and joined gradually by 2016. The CEO, John Hamilton, has a long and impressive track-record from a global investment bank and several oil companies. In 2008, he was CFO of Imperial Energy, which was sold to ONGC for 2 bn USD. The board members are a group of very highly regarded oil executives. Two have long links to the Lundin Group, and still work with the Lundins. They are Mr. Sanness and Mr. Soden. Mr. Sanness is an oil legend, responsible for the Johan Sverdrup discovery among other things, while Mr. Soden is CEO of Africa Energy. Mrs. Herger and Mrs Aadland are two other very skilled oil executives. The Chairman, Mr. Balkany has through his active ownership transformed the management and board of the company and brought in this excellent group of people. The total cost of running the management organization of Panoro is appr. 20 millNOK per year. It is an extremely low cost, and very creative group with global reach, and which have catapulted Panoro from being a miniature oil producer with a lot of legacy problems (inherited from the very poor owners and executives before 2014) to becoming a significant African player with rapidly rising profitable production. Panoro´s executive group is extremely cost focused and value creative. I regard them to be world class guardians of the company, that will create and protect value going forward based on a vast and extensive industrial and financial network, for the benefit of Panoro´s shareholders.

VALUATION PART 1: PANORO - THE OIL PRODUCER

GABON

Panoro is currently (up until they assumed ownership of the "OMV-acquistion" in Tunisa in late December 2018) producing appr. 1300 bpd, with the majority coming from Gabon´s Dussafu block. First oil in Gabon, came 2 months ahead of schedule and on budget, and took only 18 months from BWO bought into Dussafu to first oil. A feat rarely seen ever on any FPSO development globally in the history of FPSO developments. It is producing within its guided range of 10-15kbpd after production start. The field will ramp up production by late 2019, through the addition of up to 4 new wells in addition to the current 2 producing oil wells. This will raise the field production to 20-25k bpd in the initial stages of early 2020.

To understand the value-creation in Gabon, it is fundamental to understand the production infrastructure in the Dussafu block. BW Offshore has installed the 1.3 million barrel storage Adolo FPSO inside the Dussafu block. Adolo has been upgraded for a new 20 year life, and can produce 40-80k bpd (it can be scaled up from today´s 40k bpd capacity). All of the prospects and discoveries inside Dussafu block are located maximum appr. 20 km from Adolo. I.e all current discoveries and potential new ones, can be tied back to the Adolo FPSO, which then can produce the oil. This is key, and a fundamental value driver for the Dussafu oil fields. The economics are fantastic. To drill and tie back a new oil well to the FPSO, including all subsea equipment, has cap ex of around 45 millUSD. The after tax cashflow from 1 new well from the first year of production (at oil prices of 55 USD) is 66 millUSD. Yes, you heard me right. The payback of all investments in 1 new well is appr. 9 months at oil prices of 55 USD per barrel! A new well will produce oil for appr. 15 years on a gradually declining production volumes. The Dussafu wells are among the world´s most profitable offshore wells, and beats any shale oil, deepwater oil, north sea oil, and most conventional oil most places onshore. Owning the Dussafu block is a license to make money. Investors seem to know little about the facts concerning Dussafu. Most analyst reports fail to highlight these facts. After BW Offshore´s Q318 report, the FPSO analyst community, who still have limited understanding of this (an assessment I have made, based on reading their reports) focused on all the wrong things in their Q3 comments. Stock market investors sold off the BWO and Panoro stocks based on information about Dussafu among other things. The market has failed to understand the financial returns of this world class asset and growth potential. Dussafu is a mouthwatering project, and investors eventually will flock to be owners of it when they realize. A return on invested capital in a new well of above 100% within 1 year, and then another 15 year of free cashflow is almost unheard of. However, this is possible in the oil business provided you have cost control, great execution and a fantastic asset, such as Dussafu. Panoro enables investors access to unique returns, which perhaps only Arabian oil sheiks are accustomed to.

Tullow exercised their right to become a 10% Dussafu field owners after first oil, and the fact that they did use their right, is a strong support of my thesis. Tullow is a relatively large oil company, and clearly know what they are doing. Their new ownership of Dussafu, initially only gives Tullow appr. 1250 bpd oil production for their 10% share in the block. A fairly production volume small for a company like Tullow. Tullow, clearly knows the the Dussafu block and upside potential, and are believed to be fully aware of the large scale possibilities within the Dussafu block.

In Dussafu, the field owners already have 5 discoveries, which I already have listed. They are likely to hold more than 150 million barrels of recoverable oil. Probably closer to 200 million barrels. At this point in time, they are not classified as 2P reserves. Currently only, Tortue phase 1 is classified as a 2P reserves.

Investors should not wait for 2P reserve classification of all these discoveries before they buy PEN, as this will be events taking place long after the stock market has discounted the real size of the discoveries, and by the time investors will be too late. I.e. by the time the discoveries are classified as 2P reserves, the stock market has figured out what I am writing about in this analysis. Full 2P classification, is achieved one after all field development plans for all resources have been presented to reserve auditors.

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