Ny Panoro analyse lagt ut på Seeking Alpha lille julaften!!
Dette var veldig spennende greier og svært bra analysearbeid. Utrolig hvor sterk profitt Panoro også har på lave oljepriser som 50-55 USD!
Også prisingen av Panoro aksjen også - PE tall på 2-4 avhengig av oljepris eller cashflow prising på 0.4-2. Vanvittig!
Og 40-60 kroner i kursmål.....dette kan bli skikkelig gøy!
Analysen ligger her:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/49022789-moonflash2017/5251519-panoro-energy-asa-set-big-stock-rally-stock-price-valuation-come-investors-discover
Panoro Energy ASA - Set For A Big Stock Rally As Stock Price And Valuation Have Come Down, Investors Discover Incredible Upside Potential Of "New Panoro"
Dec. 23, 2018 6:19 PM ET
Summary
Panoro Energy ASA (PEN NO, PESAF, "PEN", "Panoro") has through 2018 gone through a radical transformation as a company, and creating big value for shareholders in the process.
PEN has 12-16 USD in op ex per barrel for its shallow water (near/onshore) oil production creating high profits even with oil prices in the 50-55 USD range.
Production will grow 1200% from 2018 to 2020, as a result of organic growth, and through "world class" acquisitions. Production is likely to hit 4.5-5k bpd by end 2020.
The big Q418 stockmarket correction has created the best buying opportunity in PEN´s history. The main driver of PEN´s drop has been retail investor "panic", as retail has dumped share.
The correction creates a unique buying opportunity at an incredible value, as cashflow mutiples going forward are incredibly low, with cashflow multiples as low as 0.4-2x on 2020 estimates!
Panoro is debt free on a net debt basis, meaning low financial risk. As a low cost producer, it also has high earnings generation with lower oil prices (55 USD).
In order to understand the valuation of Panoro (OSLO: PEN NO) I will divide Panoro as a company into several parts. The first part is about PEN as a significant oil producer with access to, and ownership in a high quality production infrastructure. Panoro is already generating significant cashflow, which will rise rapidly over the next 18 month period. The company will be able to produce oil for 20 years going forward based on PEN´s current reserves and resources, i.e. from oil that PEN already has discovered and is recoverable through the company´s production infrastructure.
The second part of the valuation is the value of the company´s massive exploration potential. Panoro´s exploration potential has grown a lot through 2018 due to PEN´s very attractive 2 acquisitions in Tunisia, and successes in Gabon. Panoro now owns around 60% of oil blocks with 250 million barrels of exploration potential in Tunisia. Furthermore, it owns 7.5% of the Ruche Area in Gabon, also known as Dussafu, an area with more than 20 prospects with a total of 1 billion barrels of oil in exploration potential. One of the prospects within this cluster of oil prospects were drilled with success in 2018, proving to hold a lot of oil. It is known as Ruche North East (Ruche NE). The discovery size has yet to be disclosed by the field owners, but is likely to be close to Tortue in size based on indications from the Dussafu field owners. Currently Tortue, one of the Dussafu discoveries which has been put into production, is estimated to hold 30-40 million barrels of 2P reserves, with an additional 30 million barrels of contingent reserves. Tortue, Ruche, Ruche NE, Mobuenga and Walt Whitman, the current 5 Dussafu area discoveries, are by field analysts and the oil companies involved estimated to be bigger than 150 million barrels of oil!
The third part of the value is the X factor, which is a function of PEN´s world class management and board of directors. Needless, to list their names, as they can be found on their web site. However, it is worth repeating that the CEO, and full board were new to the company from late 2014 and joined gradually by 2016. The CEO, John Hamilton, has a long and impressive track-record from a global investment bank and several oil companies. In 2008, he was CFO of Imperial Energy, which was sold to ONGC for 2 bn USD. The board members are a group of very highly regarded oil executives. Two have long links to the Lundin Group, and still work with the Lundins. They are Mr. Sanness and Mr. Soden. Mr. Sanness is an oil legend, responsible for the Johan Sverdrup discovery among other things, while Mr. Soden is CEO of Africa Energy. Mrs. Herger and Mrs Aadland are two other very skilled oil executives. The Chairman, Mr. Balkany has through his active ownership transformed the management and board of the company and brought in this excellent group of people. The total cost of running the management organization of Panoro is appr. 20 millNOK per year. It is an extremely low cost, and very creative group with global reach, and which have catapulted Panoro from being a miniature oil producer with a lot of legacy problems (inherited from the very poor owners and executives before 2014) to becoming a significant African player with rapidly rising profitable production. Panoro´s executive group is extremely cost focused and value creative. I regard them to be world class guardians of the company, that will create and protect value going forward based on a vast and extensive industrial and financial network, for the benefit of Panoro´s shareholders.
VALUATION PART 1: PANORO - THE OIL PRODUCER
GABON
Panoro is currently (up until they assumed ownership of the "OMV-acquistion" in Tunisa in late December 2018) producing appr. 1300 bpd, with the majority coming from Gabon´s Dussafu block. First oil in Gabon, came 2 months ahead of schedule and on budget, and took only 18 months from BWO bought into Dussafu to first oil. A feat rarely seen ever on any FPSO development globally in the history of FPSO developments. It is producing within its guided range of 10-15kbpd after production start. The field will ramp up production by late 2019, through the addition of up to 4 new wells in addition to the current 2 producing oil wells. This will raise the field production to 20-25k bpd in the initial stages of early 2020.
To understand the value-creation in Gabon, it is fundamental to understand the production infrastructure in the Dussafu block. BW Offshore has installed the 1.3 million barrel storage Adolo FPSO inside the Dussafu block. Adolo has been upgraded for a new 20 year life, and can produce 40-80k bpd (it can be scaled up from today´s 40k bpd capacity). All of the prospects and discoveries inside Dussafu block are located maximum appr. 20 km from Adolo. I.e all current discoveries and potential new ones, can be tied back to the Adolo FPSO, which then can produce the oil. This is key, and a fundamental value driver for the Dussafu oil fields. The economics are fantastic. To drill and tie back a new oil well to the FPSO, including all subsea equipment, has cap ex of around 45 millUSD. The after tax cashflow from 1 new well from the first year of production (at oil prices of 55 USD) is 66 millUSD. Yes, you heard me right. The payback of all investments in 1 new well is appr. 9 months at oil prices of 55 USD per barrel! A new well will produce oil for appr. 15 years on a gradually declining production volumes. The Dussafu wells are among the world´s most profitable offshore wells, and beats any shale oil, deepwater oil, north sea oil, and most conventional oil most places onshore. Owning the Dussafu block is a license to make money. Investors seem to know little about the facts concerning Dussafu. Most analyst reports fail to highlight these facts. After BW Offshore´s Q318 report, the FPSO analyst community, who still have limited understanding of this (an assessment I have made, based on reading their reports) focused on all the wrong things in their Q3 comments. Stock market investors sold off the BWO and Panoro stocks based on information about Dussafu among other things. The market has failed to understand the financial returns of this world class asset and growth potential. Dussafu is a mouthwatering project, and investors eventually will flock to be owners of it when they realize. A return on invested capital in a new well of above 100% within 1 year, and then another 15 year of free cashflow is almost unheard of. However, this is possible in the oil business provided you have cost control, great execution and a fantastic asset, such as Dussafu. Panoro enables investors access to unique returns, which perhaps only Arabian oil sheiks are accustomed to.
Tullow exercised their right to become a 10% Dussafu field owners after first oil, and the fact that they did use their right, is a strong support of my thesis. Tullow is a relatively large oil company, and clearly know what they are doing. Their new ownership of Dussafu, initially only gives Tullow appr. 1250 bpd oil production for their 10% share in the block. A fairly production volume small for a company like Tullow. Tullow, clearly knows the the Dussafu block and upside potential, and are believed to be fully aware of the large scale possibilities within the Dussafu block.
In Dussafu, the field owners already have 5 discoveries, which I already have listed. They are likely to hold more than 150 million barrels of recoverable oil. Probably closer to 200 million barrels. At this point in time, they are not classified as 2P reserves. Currently only, Tortue phase 1 is classified as a 2P reserves.
Investors should not wait for 2P reserve classification of all these discoveries before they buy PEN, as this will be events taking place long after the stock market has discounted the real size of the discoveries, and by the time investors will be too late. I.e. by the time the discoveries are classified as 2P reserves, the stock market has figured out what I am writing about in this analysis. Full 2P classification, is achieved one after all field development plans for all resources have been presented to reserve auditors.
Var ikke plass til mer. fortsetter i neste kommenar:
Også prisingen av Panoro aksjen også - PE tall på 2-4 avhengig av oljepris eller cashflow prising på 0.4-2. Vanvittig!
Og 40-60 kroner i kursmål.....dette kan bli skikkelig gøy!
Analysen ligger her:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/49022789-moonflash2017/5251519-panoro-energy-asa-set-big-stock-rally-stock-price-valuation-come-investors-discover
Panoro Energy ASA - Set For A Big Stock Rally As Stock Price And Valuation Have Come Down, Investors Discover Incredible Upside Potential Of "New Panoro"
Dec. 23, 2018 6:19 PM ET
Summary
Panoro Energy ASA (PEN NO, PESAF, "PEN", "Panoro") has through 2018 gone through a radical transformation as a company, and creating big value for shareholders in the process.
PEN has 12-16 USD in op ex per barrel for its shallow water (near/onshore) oil production creating high profits even with oil prices in the 50-55 USD range.
Production will grow 1200% from 2018 to 2020, as a result of organic growth, and through "world class" acquisitions. Production is likely to hit 4.5-5k bpd by end 2020.
The big Q418 stockmarket correction has created the best buying opportunity in PEN´s history. The main driver of PEN´s drop has been retail investor "panic", as retail has dumped share.
The correction creates a unique buying opportunity at an incredible value, as cashflow mutiples going forward are incredibly low, with cashflow multiples as low as 0.4-2x on 2020 estimates!
Panoro is debt free on a net debt basis, meaning low financial risk. As a low cost producer, it also has high earnings generation with lower oil prices (55 USD).
In order to understand the valuation of Panoro (OSLO: PEN NO) I will divide Panoro as a company into several parts. The first part is about PEN as a significant oil producer with access to, and ownership in a high quality production infrastructure. Panoro is already generating significant cashflow, which will rise rapidly over the next 18 month period. The company will be able to produce oil for 20 years going forward based on PEN´s current reserves and resources, i.e. from oil that PEN already has discovered and is recoverable through the company´s production infrastructure.
The second part of the valuation is the value of the company´s massive exploration potential. Panoro´s exploration potential has grown a lot through 2018 due to PEN´s very attractive 2 acquisitions in Tunisia, and successes in Gabon. Panoro now owns around 60% of oil blocks with 250 million barrels of exploration potential in Tunisia. Furthermore, it owns 7.5% of the Ruche Area in Gabon, also known as Dussafu, an area with more than 20 prospects with a total of 1 billion barrels of oil in exploration potential. One of the prospects within this cluster of oil prospects were drilled with success in 2018, proving to hold a lot of oil. It is known as Ruche North East (Ruche NE). The discovery size has yet to be disclosed by the field owners, but is likely to be close to Tortue in size based on indications from the Dussafu field owners. Currently Tortue, one of the Dussafu discoveries which has been put into production, is estimated to hold 30-40 million barrels of 2P reserves, with an additional 30 million barrels of contingent reserves. Tortue, Ruche, Ruche NE, Mobuenga and Walt Whitman, the current 5 Dussafu area discoveries, are by field analysts and the oil companies involved estimated to be bigger than 150 million barrels of oil!
The third part of the value is the X factor, which is a function of PEN´s world class management and board of directors. Needless, to list their names, as they can be found on their web site. However, it is worth repeating that the CEO, and full board were new to the company from late 2014 and joined gradually by 2016. The CEO, John Hamilton, has a long and impressive track-record from a global investment bank and several oil companies. In 2008, he was CFO of Imperial Energy, which was sold to ONGC for 2 bn USD. The board members are a group of very highly regarded oil executives. Two have long links to the Lundin Group, and still work with the Lundins. They are Mr. Sanness and Mr. Soden. Mr. Sanness is an oil legend, responsible for the Johan Sverdrup discovery among other things, while Mr. Soden is CEO of Africa Energy. Mrs. Herger and Mrs Aadland are two other very skilled oil executives. The Chairman, Mr. Balkany has through his active ownership transformed the management and board of the company and brought in this excellent group of people. The total cost of running the management organization of Panoro is appr. 20 millNOK per year. It is an extremely low cost, and very creative group with global reach, and which have catapulted Panoro from being a miniature oil producer with a lot of legacy problems (inherited from the very poor owners and executives before 2014) to becoming a significant African player with rapidly rising profitable production. Panoro´s executive group is extremely cost focused and value creative. I regard them to be world class guardians of the company, that will create and protect value going forward based on a vast and extensive industrial and financial network, for the benefit of Panoro´s shareholders.
VALUATION PART 1: PANORO - THE OIL PRODUCER
GABON
Panoro is currently (up until they assumed ownership of the "OMV-acquistion" in Tunisa in late December 2018) producing appr. 1300 bpd, with the majority coming from Gabon´s Dussafu block. First oil in Gabon, came 2 months ahead of schedule and on budget, and took only 18 months from BWO bought into Dussafu to first oil. A feat rarely seen ever on any FPSO development globally in the history of FPSO developments. It is producing within its guided range of 10-15kbpd after production start. The field will ramp up production by late 2019, through the addition of up to 4 new wells in addition to the current 2 producing oil wells. This will raise the field production to 20-25k bpd in the initial stages of early 2020.
To understand the value-creation in Gabon, it is fundamental to understand the production infrastructure in the Dussafu block. BW Offshore has installed the 1.3 million barrel storage Adolo FPSO inside the Dussafu block. Adolo has been upgraded for a new 20 year life, and can produce 40-80k bpd (it can be scaled up from today´s 40k bpd capacity). All of the prospects and discoveries inside Dussafu block are located maximum appr. 20 km from Adolo. I.e all current discoveries and potential new ones, can be tied back to the Adolo FPSO, which then can produce the oil. This is key, and a fundamental value driver for the Dussafu oil fields. The economics are fantastic. To drill and tie back a new oil well to the FPSO, including all subsea equipment, has cap ex of around 45 millUSD. The after tax cashflow from 1 new well from the first year of production (at oil prices of 55 USD) is 66 millUSD. Yes, you heard me right. The payback of all investments in 1 new well is appr. 9 months at oil prices of 55 USD per barrel! A new well will produce oil for appr. 15 years on a gradually declining production volumes. The Dussafu wells are among the world´s most profitable offshore wells, and beats any shale oil, deepwater oil, north sea oil, and most conventional oil most places onshore. Owning the Dussafu block is a license to make money. Investors seem to know little about the facts concerning Dussafu. Most analyst reports fail to highlight these facts. After BW Offshore´s Q318 report, the FPSO analyst community, who still have limited understanding of this (an assessment I have made, based on reading their reports) focused on all the wrong things in their Q3 comments. Stock market investors sold off the BWO and Panoro stocks based on information about Dussafu among other things. The market has failed to understand the financial returns of this world class asset and growth potential. Dussafu is a mouthwatering project, and investors eventually will flock to be owners of it when they realize. A return on invested capital in a new well of above 100% within 1 year, and then another 15 year of free cashflow is almost unheard of. However, this is possible in the oil business provided you have cost control, great execution and a fantastic asset, such as Dussafu. Panoro enables investors access to unique returns, which perhaps only Arabian oil sheiks are accustomed to.
Tullow exercised their right to become a 10% Dussafu field owners after first oil, and the fact that they did use their right, is a strong support of my thesis. Tullow is a relatively large oil company, and clearly know what they are doing. Their new ownership of Dussafu, initially only gives Tullow appr. 1250 bpd oil production for their 10% share in the block. A fairly production volume small for a company like Tullow. Tullow, clearly knows the the Dussafu block and upside potential, and are believed to be fully aware of the large scale possibilities within the Dussafu block.
In Dussafu, the field owners already have 5 discoveries, which I already have listed. They are likely to hold more than 150 million barrels of recoverable oil. Probably closer to 200 million barrels. At this point in time, they are not classified as 2P reserves. Currently only, Tortue phase 1 is classified as a 2P reserves.
Investors should not wait for 2P reserve classification of all these discoveries before they buy PEN, as this will be events taking place long after the stock market has discounted the real size of the discoveries, and by the time investors will be too late. I.e. by the time the discoveries are classified as 2P reserves, the stock market has figured out what I am writing about in this analysis. Full 2P classification, is achieved one after all field development plans for all resources have been presented to reserve auditors.
Var ikke plass til mer. fortsetter i neste kommenar:
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25.12.2018 kl 15:45
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Investors should not wait for 2P reserve classification of all these discoveries before they buy PEN, as this will be events taking place long after the stock market has discounted the real size of the discoveries, and by the time investors will be too late. I.e. by the time the discoveries are classified as 2P reserves, the stock market has figured out what I am writing about in this analysis. Full 2P classification, is achieved one after all field development plans for all resources have been presented to reserve auditors.
The indications of the total size of the discoveries within Dussafu can be observed in stock market filings by both companies. Initially, when BW Offshore bought Harvest´s ownership in Dussafu, and a part of Panoro´s share, the 2C contingent resources were publicly estimated to be 32 million barrels. By the time BWO put forward the development plan, and the reserve auditors new assessment of the Tortue discovery, Tortue phase 1, was given a 23 million barrel 2P reserve number by the reserve auditor. Later BWO has expanded their assessment of Tortue, and given a new reserve estimate for Tortue based on Tortue phase 1 and phase 2, at 30-40 million barrels. In addition they have informed that Tortue has another 30 million barrels of contingent resources. In total, Tortue on its own, could hold up to 70 million barrels. In parallell to this, both BWO and Panoro in various presentations have indicated that they believe Dussafu could potentially hold more than 150 million barrels of recoverable oil (see various BWO and Panoro presentations in 2017 and 2018). This was prior to the Ruche NE discovery made in August 2018. An analogy they have presented is the Etame discovery on the neighboring block, which initially prior to its production start, was given a 30 million barrel reserve number. 12 years later the field has produced more than 100 million barrels, and it is now estimated to be able to produce more than 150 million barrels. Note that the management of BW Energy, the field operator, mainly are people who were involved in the development of Etame.
In recent stock market filings, BWO and Panoro have informed the market that their initial 2P reserve estimate for Ruche and Ruche NE is 30 million barrels. In other words Tortue, Ruche and Ruche NE, now are estimated to hold up to 100 million barrels. One should expect that Ruche and Ruche NE reserve estimates will see the same reserve estimate growth as experienced with Tortue. As mentioned, Tortue initially was given a 23 million barrel reserve number. Now, they estimate it to be 30-40 million plus another 30 million contingent resources. BWO management has in presentations indicated that Tortue, Ruche and Ruche NE are roughly "similar" in sizes. Tortue is likely to be somewhat bigger than Ruche, and the same in comparison to Ruche NE. I.e. the three discoveries combined could be somewhere from 100-200 million barrels. This does not include Walt Whitman and Mobuenga. In summary, there are a lot of information provided giving strong support to a reserve estimate above 150 millon barrels for Dussafu´s existing discoveries. This is not understood by the stockmarket or part of the current valuation of Panoro´s stock price. When the market starts to understand or discount only parts of this reserve estimate, the stock is likely to rise rapidly and towards 40-60 NOK per share, as it essentially secures production up towards 20 years in the Dussafu field from the existing discoverie. Which will enable Panoro to get a payback of up to 20x their investments in the field.
Dussafu will see a phased development. Tortue phase 1 is already in production. Tortue phase 2 will commence production by late 2019, at a marginal investment of appr. 18 million USD for Panoro. Recall, the return on invested capital, and payback for Panoro. Within 1 year, all of the investments will be paid, back, and Panoro can then lean on a 7.5% share of 20-25k bpd production with a duration of up towards 20 years. After Tortue phase 2, Ruche and Ruche NE will most likely be put into production, raising production to 30-40k bpd from 2021 going forward. Once again, the capital Panoro invests in Ruche and Ruhce NE, will see a payback below 1 year, and higher cashflows for the next 20 years. It is a unique opportunity to be able to pick this up at Panoro´s low market capitalization of only 80 millUSD (11.15 NOK per share).
TUNISIA
In 2018, Panoro has made 2 acquisitions in Tunisia. In July, 2018, Panoro bought DNO´s Tunisian assets for a 13 millUSD earn out which only be paid linearly if Panoro produces 13 million barrels of oil. This acquisition was shared with Bendeer Petroleum, a Tunisian partner, which owns 40% of a JV with Panoro, controlled 60% by Panoro. This acquisition was at fantastic terms for Panoro, only made possible by the fact that DNO was exiting Tunisia to focus on the North Sea. DNO´s Tunisia assets, are estimated to hold 20 million barrels of recoverable oil.
In November 2018, Panoro bought OMV´s share of OMV´s JV with Tunisia´s state oil company ETAP (The JV is referred to as TPS), in the Sfax region. This JV produces 4k bpd in 2018, which will rise to close to 6k bpd in 2020. Panoro bought this together with Bendeer on a 60/40 basis. Bendeer invests on the same terms as Panoro. The DNO and OMV assets were put into a new JV owned by Panoro on a 60% basis, while Bendeer owned the remaining 40%. Panoro and Bendeer paid 3 times free cash flow for the OMV-acquisition. An extremely attractive acquisition price!! OMV sold out to focus on bigger projects, like a 1 bnUSD gas development in Tunisia. The Panoro-Bendeer JV, has through the TPS acqusition become owners of 2P reserves of 8 million barrels, 3P reserves of 16-32 million barrels, oil pipelines and export terminals, and various production related infrastructure. OMV have historically invested several hundred million USD into this asset, which Panoro-Bendeer acquired for as low as 65 millUSD/ an incredible 3 times free cashflow! On a NPV basis, the conservative reserve auditors have valued this asset today at 120 millUSD. The TPS asset can produce oil for more than 15 years from their 2P reserves.
The combination of DNO´s and OMV´s Tunisian assets acquired by Panoro and Bendeer, is a fantastic strategic combination, as the assets a located next to eachother, and it enables Panoro to use the OMV infrastructure of pipelines and export infrastructure to produce the discovered oil within the "DNO-block".
Panoro´s new Tunisia company (owned 60% by Panoro), now produces 2k bpd, which will rise to 3k bpd in 2020 before including any production from new projects being planned. Panoro is now planning to raise production further, and has secured a rig to drill a production well in the Salloum discovery (bought from DNO) in Q2 2019, which is estimated to add another 1850 bpd. Panoro will also drill an exploration well towards the west flank of Salloum, as they believe it is considerably bigger than has been previously assumed. If they are successful in increasing the size of Salloum, it could produce considerably more than 1850 bpd. The Salloum field lies in water depths of 2 meters (!!) and right under the oil pipeline included in Panoro´s acquisition from OMV. The production well can therefore, be tied straight into the pipeline, which already has a tie in module installed, and produce the Salloum field at zero operating costs. Salloum will in other words potentially contribute with more barrels per day to Panoro, than Tortue phase 2! The cap ex for the development of the Salloum discovery is between 5 and 10 million USD for Panoro. Probably around 6 million USD. It is extremely low cap ex, and provides return of invested capital that are even better than Dussafu.
I will leave it at that, and will not include any production estimates at this stage other than for 2019 and 2020. I will not include Walt Whitman, Mobuenga or Ruche and Ruche NE at this stage. Neither will I include the other discoveries (other than Salloum) acquired from DNO at this stage. All of these discoveries will provide Panoro with reserves and resources which will raise production further in 2021 and beyond, and be assets that can raise and sustain production for Panoro until 2040.
Based on Tortue phase 1 and phase 2, the OMV acquisition, and the Salloum discovery, Panoro is expected to see these production numbers:
1H 2018: 380 bpd
Q4 2018: 1300 bpd
1H 2019: 2600 bpd
2H 2019: 3600 bpd
1H 2020: 4800 bpd
2H 2020: 4800 bpd
This translates to a fantastic growth in production of 1200% from 1H 2018 to 1H 2020 from discoveries that already have been made and are very easy to start producing. And it provides a rapid growth in cashflow and profitablility for the company even in a 55 USD oil price environment. I do not expect oil prices to remain at this levels. Neither do most of the best oil price analysts globally. (I will not spend any part of this analysis on analyzing the oil market generally.) However, in order to demonstrate to robustness of the Panoro investment case, I have made estimates based on 55 USD, 65 USD and 75 USD oil prices in 2020.
Estimates of Cashflow from operations after tax ("CF") / Net profit in 2020:
55 USD oil price: CF of 243 millNOK / Net profit of 160 millNOK
65 USD oil price: CF of 364 millNOK / Net profit of 280 milNOK
75 USD oil price: CF of 442 millNOK / Net profit of 360 millNOK
This CF and Net profit gives the following Enterprise Value ("EV") to Cashflow multiples, and Price Earnings ("P/E") valuation multiples for 2020:
55 USD oil price: EV/CF of 2! / P/E of 4.6 !
65 USD oil price: EV/CF of 0.9 !! / P/E of 2.7 !!
75 USD oil price: EV/CF of 0.4 !! / P/E of 1.9!!
Fortsetter i neste kommentar:
Investors should not wait for 2P reserve classification of all these discoveries before they buy PEN, as this will be events taking place long after the stock market has discounted the real size of the discoveries, and by the time investors will be too late. I.e. by the time the discoveries are classified as 2P reserves, the stock market has figured out what I am writing about in this analysis. Full 2P classification, is achieved one after all field development plans for all resources have been presented to reserve auditors.
The indications of the total size of the discoveries within Dussafu can be observed in stock market filings by both companies. Initially, when BW Offshore bought Harvest´s ownership in Dussafu, and a part of Panoro´s share, the 2C contingent resources were publicly estimated to be 32 million barrels. By the time BWO put forward the development plan, and the reserve auditors new assessment of the Tortue discovery, Tortue phase 1, was given a 23 million barrel 2P reserve number by the reserve auditor. Later BWO has expanded their assessment of Tortue, and given a new reserve estimate for Tortue based on Tortue phase 1 and phase 2, at 30-40 million barrels. In addition they have informed that Tortue has another 30 million barrels of contingent resources. In total, Tortue on its own, could hold up to 70 million barrels. In parallell to this, both BWO and Panoro in various presentations have indicated that they believe Dussafu could potentially hold more than 150 million barrels of recoverable oil (see various BWO and Panoro presentations in 2017 and 2018). This was prior to the Ruche NE discovery made in August 2018. An analogy they have presented is the Etame discovery on the neighboring block, which initially prior to its production start, was given a 30 million barrel reserve number. 12 years later the field has produced more than 100 million barrels, and it is now estimated to be able to produce more than 150 million barrels. Note that the management of BW Energy, the field operator, mainly are people who were involved in the development of Etame.
In recent stock market filings, BWO and Panoro have informed the market that their initial 2P reserve estimate for Ruche and Ruche NE is 30 million barrels. In other words Tortue, Ruche and Ruche NE, now are estimated to hold up to 100 million barrels. One should expect that Ruche and Ruche NE reserve estimates will see the same reserve estimate growth as experienced with Tortue. As mentioned, Tortue initially was given a 23 million barrel reserve number. Now, they estimate it to be 30-40 million plus another 30 million contingent resources. BWO management has in presentations indicated that Tortue, Ruche and Ruche NE are roughly "similar" in sizes. Tortue is likely to be somewhat bigger than Ruche, and the same in comparison to Ruche NE. I.e. the three discoveries combined could be somewhere from 100-200 million barrels. This does not include Walt Whitman and Mobuenga. In summary, there are a lot of information provided giving strong support to a reserve estimate above 150 millon barrels for Dussafu´s existing discoveries. This is not understood by the stockmarket or part of the current valuation of Panoro´s stock price. When the market starts to understand or discount only parts of this reserve estimate, the stock is likely to rise rapidly and towards 40-60 NOK per share, as it essentially secures production up towards 20 years in the Dussafu field from the existing discoverie. Which will enable Panoro to get a payback of up to 20x their investments in the field.
Dussafu will see a phased development. Tortue phase 1 is already in production. Tortue phase 2 will commence production by late 2019, at a marginal investment of appr. 18 million USD for Panoro. Recall, the return on invested capital, and payback for Panoro. Within 1 year, all of the investments will be paid, back, and Panoro can then lean on a 7.5% share of 20-25k bpd production with a duration of up towards 20 years. After Tortue phase 2, Ruche and Ruche NE will most likely be put into production, raising production to 30-40k bpd from 2021 going forward. Once again, the capital Panoro invests in Ruche and Ruhce NE, will see a payback below 1 year, and higher cashflows for the next 20 years. It is a unique opportunity to be able to pick this up at Panoro´s low market capitalization of only 80 millUSD (11.15 NOK per share).
TUNISIA
In 2018, Panoro has made 2 acquisitions in Tunisia. In July, 2018, Panoro bought DNO´s Tunisian assets for a 13 millUSD earn out which only be paid linearly if Panoro produces 13 million barrels of oil. This acquisition was shared with Bendeer Petroleum, a Tunisian partner, which owns 40% of a JV with Panoro, controlled 60% by Panoro. This acquisition was at fantastic terms for Panoro, only made possible by the fact that DNO was exiting Tunisia to focus on the North Sea. DNO´s Tunisia assets, are estimated to hold 20 million barrels of recoverable oil.
In November 2018, Panoro bought OMV´s share of OMV´s JV with Tunisia´s state oil company ETAP (The JV is referred to as TPS), in the Sfax region. This JV produces 4k bpd in 2018, which will rise to close to 6k bpd in 2020. Panoro bought this together with Bendeer on a 60/40 basis. Bendeer invests on the same terms as Panoro. The DNO and OMV assets were put into a new JV owned by Panoro on a 60% basis, while Bendeer owned the remaining 40%. Panoro and Bendeer paid 3 times free cash flow for the OMV-acquisition. An extremely attractive acquisition price!! OMV sold out to focus on bigger projects, like a 1 bnUSD gas development in Tunisia. The Panoro-Bendeer JV, has through the TPS acqusition become owners of 2P reserves of 8 million barrels, 3P reserves of 16-32 million barrels, oil pipelines and export terminals, and various production related infrastructure. OMV have historically invested several hundred million USD into this asset, which Panoro-Bendeer acquired for as low as 65 millUSD/ an incredible 3 times free cashflow! On a NPV basis, the conservative reserve auditors have valued this asset today at 120 millUSD. The TPS asset can produce oil for more than 15 years from their 2P reserves.
The combination of DNO´s and OMV´s Tunisian assets acquired by Panoro and Bendeer, is a fantastic strategic combination, as the assets a located next to eachother, and it enables Panoro to use the OMV infrastructure of pipelines and export infrastructure to produce the discovered oil within the "DNO-block".
Panoro´s new Tunisia company (owned 60% by Panoro), now produces 2k bpd, which will rise to 3k bpd in 2020 before including any production from new projects being planned. Panoro is now planning to raise production further, and has secured a rig to drill a production well in the Salloum discovery (bought from DNO) in Q2 2019, which is estimated to add another 1850 bpd. Panoro will also drill an exploration well towards the west flank of Salloum, as they believe it is considerably bigger than has been previously assumed. If they are successful in increasing the size of Salloum, it could produce considerably more than 1850 bpd. The Salloum field lies in water depths of 2 meters (!!) and right under the oil pipeline included in Panoro´s acquisition from OMV. The production well can therefore, be tied straight into the pipeline, which already has a tie in module installed, and produce the Salloum field at zero operating costs. Salloum will in other words potentially contribute with more barrels per day to Panoro, than Tortue phase 2! The cap ex for the development of the Salloum discovery is between 5 and 10 million USD for Panoro. Probably around 6 million USD. It is extremely low cap ex, and provides return of invested capital that are even better than Dussafu.
I will leave it at that, and will not include any production estimates at this stage other than for 2019 and 2020. I will not include Walt Whitman, Mobuenga or Ruche and Ruche NE at this stage. Neither will I include the other discoveries (other than Salloum) acquired from DNO at this stage. All of these discoveries will provide Panoro with reserves and resources which will raise production further in 2021 and beyond, and be assets that can raise and sustain production for Panoro until 2040.
Based on Tortue phase 1 and phase 2, the OMV acquisition, and the Salloum discovery, Panoro is expected to see these production numbers:
1H 2018: 380 bpd
Q4 2018: 1300 bpd
1H 2019: 2600 bpd
2H 2019: 3600 bpd
1H 2020: 4800 bpd
2H 2020: 4800 bpd
This translates to a fantastic growth in production of 1200% from 1H 2018 to 1H 2020 from discoveries that already have been made and are very easy to start producing. And it provides a rapid growth in cashflow and profitablility for the company even in a 55 USD oil price environment. I do not expect oil prices to remain at this levels. Neither do most of the best oil price analysts globally. (I will not spend any part of this analysis on analyzing the oil market generally.) However, in order to demonstrate to robustness of the Panoro investment case, I have made estimates based on 55 USD, 65 USD and 75 USD oil prices in 2020.
Estimates of Cashflow from operations after tax ("CF") / Net profit in 2020:
55 USD oil price: CF of 243 millNOK / Net profit of 160 millNOK
65 USD oil price: CF of 364 millNOK / Net profit of 280 milNOK
75 USD oil price: CF of 442 millNOK / Net profit of 360 millNOK
This CF and Net profit gives the following Enterprise Value ("EV") to Cashflow multiples, and Price Earnings ("P/E") valuation multiples for 2020:
55 USD oil price: EV/CF of 2! / P/E of 4.6 !
65 USD oil price: EV/CF of 0.9 !! / P/E of 2.7 !!
75 USD oil price: EV/CF of 0.4 !! / P/E of 1.9!!
Fortsetter i neste kommentar:
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Jannern
25.12.2018 kl 15:45
12149
Fortsettelse:
(In order to get the correct EV, I have used a 11.15 NOK stock price. In addition I have taken the company´s current cash and debt, adjusted for all investments and cashflow in 2019 and 2020, in order to compute the Net interest bearing debt by end 2020. In all oil price scenarios the company will be debt free end 2020 by a large margin, and hold considerable cash positions in end 2020)
The conclusion is that Panoro is a very low valued stock with fantastic assets that will provide production up towards 20 years. This can be acquired by investor for a EV/CF 2020 of 0.4-2 !! (It should not be possible to acquire a stock on a stock exchange at such low valuation multiples), and a PE 2020 of 1.9-4.6 !! Given the long duration of production from these fields, and fantastic growth potential after 2020, this stock should trade at dramatically higher prices. Based on oil price estimates and analysis from the best global analysts that sees oil prices rise to above 70 USD in 2019, and even a stronger oil market in 2020/21 when long term effects (of too low investments in the oil and gas markets since 2012/13 starts to take effect), I expect this stock to start to rise towards 40-60 NOK per share in 2019, as the stock market starts to discount the earningspower of the company even with lower oil prices, and long term cashflow generation which will raise the valuation multiples to the right levels.
NIGERIA
At this point in time the legacy project, Aje, is self sustaining, and a partnership likely to see restructuring of ownership. It is too early to assess the value for Panoro. However, I still expect it to be worth considerable amounts for Panoro. Until the company, provide further information, we will wait to make conclusions.
VALUATION PART 2 AND 3:
EXPLORATION
I will make this part of the analysis more brief and return to this topic in new posts in the future. However, it is clear that the stock market currently assign zero value to Panoro´s exploration portfolio. Companies, like Africa Energy, trade at 800-1000 million SEK on the exchange. Africa Energy has ownership in 3 exploration blocks (Namibia and South Africa) with high risk exploration in areas with very limited infrastructure. Still, the stock market incredibly values Africa Energy higher than Panoro.
Panoro, on the other hand, has more than 20 prospects inside the Dussafu block. Several of the prospects have blockbuster potential, and would be big stock price drivers for companies like Africa Energy, if they had owned these prospects. I think this will change, moving into 2019, as investors discovers this part of Panoro. 2 of the 20 prospects in Dussafu are potentially 500 million barrels. These are known as prospect A and B. In the second half of 2019, the Dussafu owners will start to drill new exploration wells in Dussafu. At this point in time, they have agreed to drill 2 new exploration wells, with options for another 2. All of the prospects are within 20 km of the Adolo FPSO, and can be produced by Adolo. This is extremely attractive and fundamental to the value of Panoro´s exploration portfolio. Thus, Panoro´s exploration should be of much higher interest to investors than e.g. Africa Energy´s exploration in deep water areas of Namibia and South Africa with no infrastructure. Any Africa Energy discovery could take 5-8 years to get into production. Panoro´s on the other hand would be fast track developments tied into the Adolo FPSO. Let´s play with a scenario. Panoro finds oil in Prospect B. It is proven to contain 270 million barrels of oil. Panoro owns 7.5%, this would add 20 million barrels of oil to Panoro´s reserves. given that Panoro earn more than 30 USD per barrel after tax in Gabon at 59 USD oil prices, one would give this discovery 15-20 USD per barrel in value, since the oil can be fast tracked developed through the Adolo FPSO. This means that a Prospect B discovery of 270 million barrels would be worth (15-20 USD x 20 mill barrels = 225 millUSD-400 millUSD =) 31 - 54 NOK per Panoro share!!
The magnitude of impact of a Prospect B discovery is humongous. And the stock market is not paying attention. In fact, few probably even know about it. This prospect is likely to be drilled within 6-12 months. And many more prospects will be drilled as well in this time period. The total exploration potential in Dussafu is 1 billion barrels. I.e. could create 120-200 NOK per share for Panoro if they hit jackpot. Any sceptic would say oil exploration is risky with lower probabilities. Which is true for most examples. However, this is not normal exploration. This is exploration in an area where 5 discoveries already have been made, and these prospects are in a cluster in the immediate nearby area of the existing discoveries. Since 2012, the Dussfau owners have drilled 9 wells and sidetracks. All of them have been successful. As soon as the stock market understands this and realized this potential, the stock market wills start to assign value to the exploration part. Note that Panoro can deduct 70% of the exploration cost from the PSA tax, when they are in the production phase. Thus, drilling for more oil makes a lot of financial sense too.
It is likely to start to happen, i.e. stock market valuation of the exploration potential starts to rise, as soon as we move into 2019, as the first wells will be around 6 months ahead in time. Never before, have I come across such enormous value potential totally ignored by stock market investors.
In Tunisia, Panoro now also hold a giant exploration potential. In total the exploration potential is 250 million barrels within the blocks they now own 60% of. The first new exploration in this area is expected to start in Q2 2019. This will be the Salloum West sidetrack well, which could if successful mean that Salloum is significantly higher. In case it is successful, it could be put into production immediately through the pipeline they now own. I expect more exploration to take place later in 2019 and in 2020.
The conclusion is that Panoro provides the unique opportunity of high impact world class exploration potential in shallow water, close to a high quality production infrastructure which provides fast track production development.
The final part of the valuation is the X-factor. I will only say, read this analysis over again if you are yet to understand what this management group is capable of. They have created a new Panoro, with an exceptional upside potential based on its existing assets. I expect them to create more value in the future based on world class craftmanship for the benefit of the shareholders.
CONCLUSION
The analysis has already concluded. I will repeat my message from 12 months ago. Panoro stands out as the best global pick of any E&P stocks worldwide. The stock price rally in the first half of 2018, is likely to be dwarfed by Panoro´s next move into 2019, which will is likely to be sustained in 2020 and beyond. The next move is likely to start soon, and the stock is going to move towards 40-60 NOK per share. The EV/CF valuation of 0.4-2 (55-75 USD oil price) is an extremely attractive and rare opportunity which will not be ignored. There are few businesses anyware avaible for investors at cashflow multiples of 0.4-2. It is an incredible opportunity which has arised as a result of a stock market correction, and multiple transformative events in the company few investors are aware of. As the market becomes of the unique offer enabled by Panoro, the stock can potentially explode upwards.
Disclosure: I am/we are long PEN NO.
(In order to get the correct EV, I have used a 11.15 NOK stock price. In addition I have taken the company´s current cash and debt, adjusted for all investments and cashflow in 2019 and 2020, in order to compute the Net interest bearing debt by end 2020. In all oil price scenarios the company will be debt free end 2020 by a large margin, and hold considerable cash positions in end 2020)
The conclusion is that Panoro is a very low valued stock with fantastic assets that will provide production up towards 20 years. This can be acquired by investor for a EV/CF 2020 of 0.4-2 !! (It should not be possible to acquire a stock on a stock exchange at such low valuation multiples), and a PE 2020 of 1.9-4.6 !! Given the long duration of production from these fields, and fantastic growth potential after 2020, this stock should trade at dramatically higher prices. Based on oil price estimates and analysis from the best global analysts that sees oil prices rise to above 70 USD in 2019, and even a stronger oil market in 2020/21 when long term effects (of too low investments in the oil and gas markets since 2012/13 starts to take effect), I expect this stock to start to rise towards 40-60 NOK per share in 2019, as the stock market starts to discount the earningspower of the company even with lower oil prices, and long term cashflow generation which will raise the valuation multiples to the right levels.
NIGERIA
At this point in time the legacy project, Aje, is self sustaining, and a partnership likely to see restructuring of ownership. It is too early to assess the value for Panoro. However, I still expect it to be worth considerable amounts for Panoro. Until the company, provide further information, we will wait to make conclusions.
VALUATION PART 2 AND 3:
EXPLORATION
I will make this part of the analysis more brief and return to this topic in new posts in the future. However, it is clear that the stock market currently assign zero value to Panoro´s exploration portfolio. Companies, like Africa Energy, trade at 800-1000 million SEK on the exchange. Africa Energy has ownership in 3 exploration blocks (Namibia and South Africa) with high risk exploration in areas with very limited infrastructure. Still, the stock market incredibly values Africa Energy higher than Panoro.
Panoro, on the other hand, has more than 20 prospects inside the Dussafu block. Several of the prospects have blockbuster potential, and would be big stock price drivers for companies like Africa Energy, if they had owned these prospects. I think this will change, moving into 2019, as investors discovers this part of Panoro. 2 of the 20 prospects in Dussafu are potentially 500 million barrels. These are known as prospect A and B. In the second half of 2019, the Dussafu owners will start to drill new exploration wells in Dussafu. At this point in time, they have agreed to drill 2 new exploration wells, with options for another 2. All of the prospects are within 20 km of the Adolo FPSO, and can be produced by Adolo. This is extremely attractive and fundamental to the value of Panoro´s exploration portfolio. Thus, Panoro´s exploration should be of much higher interest to investors than e.g. Africa Energy´s exploration in deep water areas of Namibia and South Africa with no infrastructure. Any Africa Energy discovery could take 5-8 years to get into production. Panoro´s on the other hand would be fast track developments tied into the Adolo FPSO. Let´s play with a scenario. Panoro finds oil in Prospect B. It is proven to contain 270 million barrels of oil. Panoro owns 7.5%, this would add 20 million barrels of oil to Panoro´s reserves. given that Panoro earn more than 30 USD per barrel after tax in Gabon at 59 USD oil prices, one would give this discovery 15-20 USD per barrel in value, since the oil can be fast tracked developed through the Adolo FPSO. This means that a Prospect B discovery of 270 million barrels would be worth (15-20 USD x 20 mill barrels = 225 millUSD-400 millUSD =) 31 - 54 NOK per Panoro share!!
The magnitude of impact of a Prospect B discovery is humongous. And the stock market is not paying attention. In fact, few probably even know about it. This prospect is likely to be drilled within 6-12 months. And many more prospects will be drilled as well in this time period. The total exploration potential in Dussafu is 1 billion barrels. I.e. could create 120-200 NOK per share for Panoro if they hit jackpot. Any sceptic would say oil exploration is risky with lower probabilities. Which is true for most examples. However, this is not normal exploration. This is exploration in an area where 5 discoveries already have been made, and these prospects are in a cluster in the immediate nearby area of the existing discoveries. Since 2012, the Dussfau owners have drilled 9 wells and sidetracks. All of them have been successful. As soon as the stock market understands this and realized this potential, the stock market wills start to assign value to the exploration part. Note that Panoro can deduct 70% of the exploration cost from the PSA tax, when they are in the production phase. Thus, drilling for more oil makes a lot of financial sense too.
It is likely to start to happen, i.e. stock market valuation of the exploration potential starts to rise, as soon as we move into 2019, as the first wells will be around 6 months ahead in time. Never before, have I come across such enormous value potential totally ignored by stock market investors.
In Tunisia, Panoro now also hold a giant exploration potential. In total the exploration potential is 250 million barrels within the blocks they now own 60% of. The first new exploration in this area is expected to start in Q2 2019. This will be the Salloum West sidetrack well, which could if successful mean that Salloum is significantly higher. In case it is successful, it could be put into production immediately through the pipeline they now own. I expect more exploration to take place later in 2019 and in 2020.
The conclusion is that Panoro provides the unique opportunity of high impact world class exploration potential in shallow water, close to a high quality production infrastructure which provides fast track production development.
The final part of the valuation is the X-factor. I will only say, read this analysis over again if you are yet to understand what this management group is capable of. They have created a new Panoro, with an exceptional upside potential based on its existing assets. I expect them to create more value in the future based on world class craftmanship for the benefit of the shareholders.
CONCLUSION
The analysis has already concluded. I will repeat my message from 12 months ago. Panoro stands out as the best global pick of any E&P stocks worldwide. The stock price rally in the first half of 2018, is likely to be dwarfed by Panoro´s next move into 2019, which will is likely to be sustained in 2020 and beyond. The next move is likely to start soon, and the stock is going to move towards 40-60 NOK per share. The EV/CF valuation of 0.4-2 (55-75 USD oil price) is an extremely attractive and rare opportunity which will not be ignored. There are few businesses anyware avaible for investors at cashflow multiples of 0.4-2. It is an incredible opportunity which has arised as a result of a stock market correction, and multiple transformative events in the company few investors are aware of. As the market becomes of the unique offer enabled by Panoro, the stock can potentially explode upwards.
Disclosure: I am/we are long PEN NO.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Yzf R1
25.12.2018 kl 15:52
12130
Alltid et håp i et hengende snøre ,takker for link.
Ha forsatt en god jul.
Ha forsatt en god jul.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Fluefiskeren
25.12.2018 kl 21:24
11868
Takk for den. At siste setning ville komme var jeg villig til å ta et veddermål på allerede temmelig tidlig under lesingen.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Jannern
26.12.2018 kl 10:02
11550
Det er vel ikke så ofte at vi får så grundige og gode analyser på Hegnar-forumet....Jeg blir bare glad over å se at sjappa prises fra 0.4 til 2 ganger kontantstrømmen på forskjellig oljepris. Det er helt kriminelt billig og sjelden man ser tror jeg. Kan ikke huske å ha sett noe slik selv. Da er det klart at denne aksjen kan stige kraftig fremover som sies i denne analysen!
God jul!
God jul!
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Alby
26.12.2018 kl 12:18
11373
Da blir det å vente til markedet ror seg. Spennende tider vi går i møte.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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sulzrox
26.12.2018 kl 12:41
11310
**********************************
Let´s play with a scenario.
Panoro finds oil in Prospect B. It is proven to contain 270 million barrels of oil. Panoro owns 7.5%, this would add 20 million barrels of oil to Panoro´s reserves. given that Panoro earn more than 30 USD per barrel after tax in Gabon at 59 USD oil prices, one would give this discovery 15-20 USD per barrel in value, since the oil can be fast tracked developed through the Adolo FPSO. This means that a Prospect B discovery of 270 million barrels would be worth (15-20 USD x 20 mill barrels = 225 millUSD-400 millUSD =) 31 - 54 NOK per Panoro share!!
******************************
Prospect B vil vel ikkje bli utvunnet med Adolo FPSO?
Finner ein ""270 million barrels of oil"" vil det nå vel bli ein sjølstendig utbygging? ( Egen produsent unit)
Let´s play with a scenario.
Panoro finds oil in Prospect B. It is proven to contain 270 million barrels of oil. Panoro owns 7.5%, this would add 20 million barrels of oil to Panoro´s reserves. given that Panoro earn more than 30 USD per barrel after tax in Gabon at 59 USD oil prices, one would give this discovery 15-20 USD per barrel in value, since the oil can be fast tracked developed through the Adolo FPSO. This means that a Prospect B discovery of 270 million barrels would be worth (15-20 USD x 20 mill barrels = 225 millUSD-400 millUSD =) 31 - 54 NOK per Panoro share!!
******************************
Prospect B vil vel ikkje bli utvunnet med Adolo FPSO?
Finner ein ""270 million barrels of oil"" vil det nå vel bli ein sjølstendig utbygging? ( Egen produsent unit)
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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gunnarius
26.12.2018 kl 13:48
11193
Rimeligvis må analysen leses og tolkes basert på at den har sitt opphav i eksisterende investormiljø, dvs. eier aksjer i selskapet. Har absolutt en formening om hvem som står bak denne analysen, men det betyr i så fall at disse investorene sitter enda lenger long eller har trua - enn hva jeg så for meg.
Mer bull enn investormiljøet i PEN her omtaler selskapet og aksjen skal det vel letes lenge etter. Men er faktisk selv helt enig: Dussafu er et meget undervurdert og underanalysert asset, som alene bør representere at dagens aksjekurs burde ha gått 2-3 gangen. I tillegg tilkommer Tunisia, hvor jeg synes analysen dokumenterer de underliggende verdiene og volum på en ryddig måte.
Hva jeg konkluderer med i denne analysen er - at dersom markedet vil være med på den moroa som skisseres, bør man kaste seg rundt.
For analysen bekrefter det syn som er forfektet fra min side: Selv med dagens oljepriser og generelt lave oljepriser besitter PEN så gode assets at risikoen er minimal for å tape penger.
Hva gjelder produksjon vil PEN øke fra ca. 400 f/d netto til PEN januar 2018 og til ~2.600 f/d i januar 2019.
Samstemmer også i at PEN innen tidlig 2020 kan produsere samlet 4.500-5.000 f/d uten Aje. Artikkelforfatteren kan få helt rett i at Dussafu Fase 2 kan produsere fra ultimo 2019.
Skjønner også at analysen inntil videre nedtoner Aje. Dvs. man kan ikke verdisette dette asset, før markedet har fått meldt tilstrekkelig videre løp og boring. Derfor blir Aje fremdeles å regne som et wild card. Men vi som følger MX Oil tett, vet at det arbeides hektisk med boreprogram og funding for 2019. Dvs. Aje kan i løpet av 2019 produsere 8.000-12.000 fat etter boring og satt i produksjon to ekstra brønner. Er egentlig Aje som står frem som en game changer i 2019 og som er totalt undervurdert på analysehold. Riktig metode å gjøre det slik inntil videre, men som sagt vær obs på mulig endring og mer boring på Aje i 2019 – trolig en Turonian Oil Rim brønn og en Cenomanian brønn.
La meg avslutningsvis bringe inn et forhold som må vurderes videre: Hva vil Tullow med Dussafu og ønsker dette selskapet med sterke finansielle muskler noe annet - enn kun sitte med 10% eierandel i Dussafu. Hvilken konsekvens kan dette få for Panoro?
Som analysen presiserer for Q4 – aksjen preges av frykt og panikksalg. Det blir etter mitt syn kun et tidsspørsmål før aksjekursen vender oppover. Videre turbulens i oljepris og makro må påregnes, men deretter vil pendelen normalt finne balansen. Er selv som analysen og investormiljøet forfekter bull i aksjen og eier aksjer.
Mer bull enn investormiljøet i PEN her omtaler selskapet og aksjen skal det vel letes lenge etter. Men er faktisk selv helt enig: Dussafu er et meget undervurdert og underanalysert asset, som alene bør representere at dagens aksjekurs burde ha gått 2-3 gangen. I tillegg tilkommer Tunisia, hvor jeg synes analysen dokumenterer de underliggende verdiene og volum på en ryddig måte.
Hva jeg konkluderer med i denne analysen er - at dersom markedet vil være med på den moroa som skisseres, bør man kaste seg rundt.
For analysen bekrefter det syn som er forfektet fra min side: Selv med dagens oljepriser og generelt lave oljepriser besitter PEN så gode assets at risikoen er minimal for å tape penger.
Hva gjelder produksjon vil PEN øke fra ca. 400 f/d netto til PEN januar 2018 og til ~2.600 f/d i januar 2019.
Samstemmer også i at PEN innen tidlig 2020 kan produsere samlet 4.500-5.000 f/d uten Aje. Artikkelforfatteren kan få helt rett i at Dussafu Fase 2 kan produsere fra ultimo 2019.
Skjønner også at analysen inntil videre nedtoner Aje. Dvs. man kan ikke verdisette dette asset, før markedet har fått meldt tilstrekkelig videre løp og boring. Derfor blir Aje fremdeles å regne som et wild card. Men vi som følger MX Oil tett, vet at det arbeides hektisk med boreprogram og funding for 2019. Dvs. Aje kan i løpet av 2019 produsere 8.000-12.000 fat etter boring og satt i produksjon to ekstra brønner. Er egentlig Aje som står frem som en game changer i 2019 og som er totalt undervurdert på analysehold. Riktig metode å gjøre det slik inntil videre, men som sagt vær obs på mulig endring og mer boring på Aje i 2019 – trolig en Turonian Oil Rim brønn og en Cenomanian brønn.
La meg avslutningsvis bringe inn et forhold som må vurderes videre: Hva vil Tullow med Dussafu og ønsker dette selskapet med sterke finansielle muskler noe annet - enn kun sitte med 10% eierandel i Dussafu. Hvilken konsekvens kan dette få for Panoro?
Som analysen presiserer for Q4 – aksjen preges av frykt og panikksalg. Det blir etter mitt syn kun et tidsspørsmål før aksjekursen vender oppover. Videre turbulens i oljepris og makro må påregnes, men deretter vil pendelen normalt finne balansen. Er selv som analysen og investormiljøet forfekter bull i aksjen og eier aksjer.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Jannern
26.12.2018 kl 15:24
11028
Artikkelforfatter skriver: "BW Offshore has installed the 1.3 million barrel storage Adolo FPSO inside the Dussafu block. Adolo has been upgraded for a new 20 year life, and can produce 40-80k bpd (it can be scaled up from today´s 40k bpd capacity)"
Jeg tipper at disse fakta er riktige pga grundigheten til forfatter. Da kan Adolo også produsere oljen som finnes på Prospekt B. Adolo har himla mye lagerplass. med 1.3 millioner fat, og kan da ta i mot enormt med olje. Og med 80.000 fat per dag prosesskapasitet, vil den også kunne produsere prospekt B.
Jeg tipper at disse fakta er riktige pga grundigheten til forfatter. Da kan Adolo også produsere oljen som finnes på Prospekt B. Adolo har himla mye lagerplass. med 1.3 millioner fat, og kan da ta i mot enormt med olje. Og med 80.000 fat per dag prosesskapasitet, vil den også kunne produsere prospekt B.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Fluefiskeren
26.12.2018 kl 16:55
10914
Jannern
Det blir dessverre feil å skrive «oljen som finnes på prospekt B» Det er ikke boret noen brønn der meg bekjent. Det oppgitte tall for ressurser er derfor unrisked prospective resources. Altså kun basert på seismikk. Kun boringer vil kunne fastsette om og i tilfelle hvor mye olje som er der.
Litt rart at forfatteren ikke nevner prospekt A som ligger rett på siden av B. Kun avskilt av en forkastning. Unrisked prospective resources er her omtrent de samme som på B.
Det blir iallfall pokker så spennende når det skal bores letebrønner på disse prospektene.
Det blir dessverre feil å skrive «oljen som finnes på prospekt B» Det er ikke boret noen brønn der meg bekjent. Det oppgitte tall for ressurser er derfor unrisked prospective resources. Altså kun basert på seismikk. Kun boringer vil kunne fastsette om og i tilfelle hvor mye olje som er der.
Litt rart at forfatteren ikke nevner prospekt A som ligger rett på siden av B. Kun avskilt av en forkastning. Unrisked prospective resources er her omtrent de samme som på B.
Det blir iallfall pokker så spennende når det skal bores letebrønner på disse prospektene.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Spitzer
26.12.2018 kl 17:42
10799
Mye bra i analysen, men forfatter synes å ta utgangspunkt i best case og ligger ikke inne en risket vekting av de ulike elementene. Dog fint å kunne synliggjøre potensiale.
Etter min mening er det reellt "fare" for at PEN produserer ca 4500-5000 boed fra 2020. Er MYE spennende på gang nå i 2019 både av organisk vekst med borring av produksjonsbrønner både i Tunisia og Gabon (kanskje og Nigeria?), men også letebrønner. Skal borres to letebrønner hvor de har opsjon på ytterligere to. Dersom det blir treff på en eller begge av letebrønnene vil nok opsjonen være avgrensningsbrønner til funnene for å kunne anslå størrelsen og gi verdifull info for senere produksjon fra funnene.
Når det gjelder Ruche, Ruche NE, Moubenga og prospekt A og B synes planene å være en egen ubemannet produksjonsplattform/hub som har tie-back til Adolo. Som nevnt har Adolo ganske god kapasitet med sine 1,3 mill fat og får en betydlig produksjon samlet fra Tortue og produksjonshubben ved Ruche så er det bare å tømme Adolo hyppigere :). Synes å være veldig god økonomi med en slik utvikling.
Riktig at nye produksjonsbrønner i Tortue er ganske billige og bare å koble rett på FPSO-en, men en utbygging rundt Ruche blir nok en litt større kostnad (selve brønnene vil nok være noenlunde lik Tortue, men så er det denne produksjonsplattformen med 2 mil?? tie-back til Adolo). Tipper de går i gang med dette i 2021.
Om kort tid bør vi vente en avklaring på Tulip/Tullow og oppgjør rundt dette. Tviler sterkt på at PEN får økt sin eierandel noe i forhandlingene. Dersom det blir slik en bør anta ut fra Tulip sin 10 % farm-in avtale, bør en vente et greit cash-oppgjør for PEN sin del.
Selv om Dussafu har MEGA-potesiale og veldig mye spennende som skjer videre fremover her så vil det de første par årene være størst produksjon for PEN sin del i Tunisia. Her kjører de løpet i selv som operatør, men har partner med på laget som tar 40 % av risiko og investering.
Etter min mening er det reellt "fare" for at PEN produserer ca 4500-5000 boed fra 2020. Er MYE spennende på gang nå i 2019 både av organisk vekst med borring av produksjonsbrønner både i Tunisia og Gabon (kanskje og Nigeria?), men også letebrønner. Skal borres to letebrønner hvor de har opsjon på ytterligere to. Dersom det blir treff på en eller begge av letebrønnene vil nok opsjonen være avgrensningsbrønner til funnene for å kunne anslå størrelsen og gi verdifull info for senere produksjon fra funnene.
Når det gjelder Ruche, Ruche NE, Moubenga og prospekt A og B synes planene å være en egen ubemannet produksjonsplattform/hub som har tie-back til Adolo. Som nevnt har Adolo ganske god kapasitet med sine 1,3 mill fat og får en betydlig produksjon samlet fra Tortue og produksjonshubben ved Ruche så er det bare å tømme Adolo hyppigere :). Synes å være veldig god økonomi med en slik utvikling.
Riktig at nye produksjonsbrønner i Tortue er ganske billige og bare å koble rett på FPSO-en, men en utbygging rundt Ruche blir nok en litt større kostnad (selve brønnene vil nok være noenlunde lik Tortue, men så er det denne produksjonsplattformen med 2 mil?? tie-back til Adolo). Tipper de går i gang med dette i 2021.
Om kort tid bør vi vente en avklaring på Tulip/Tullow og oppgjør rundt dette. Tviler sterkt på at PEN får økt sin eierandel noe i forhandlingene. Dersom det blir slik en bør anta ut fra Tulip sin 10 % farm-in avtale, bør en vente et greit cash-oppgjør for PEN sin del.
Selv om Dussafu har MEGA-potesiale og veldig mye spennende som skjer videre fremover her så vil det de første par årene være størst produksjon for PEN sin del i Tunisia. Her kjører de løpet i selv som operatør, men har partner med på laget som tar 40 % av risiko og investering.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Spitzer
26.12.2018 kl 17:45
10773
Oljeprisen får en gjort lite med, men fundamentalt har PEN aldri sett bedre ut. Fullfinansiert slik det ser ut nå til langt inn i 2020 med antatt dobling av produksjon innen ca 12 mnd.
Veldig lav opex på produksjonsbrønner i Tunisia og Gabon gjør PEN til et veldig bra investeringsobjekt etter min mening.
Veldig lav opex på produksjonsbrønner i Tunisia og Gabon gjør PEN til et veldig bra investeringsobjekt etter min mening.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Alby
26.12.2018 kl 18:14
10702
Oljeprisen opp over 5 % :-)
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sulzrox
26.12.2018 kl 18:53
10600
Meget bra innlegg Spitzer
Kunne ikkje vært meir enig i det du skriv.
Kunne ikkje vært meir enig i det du skriv.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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MC Axel
26.12.2018 kl 21:06
10415
I guess that PEN will end high tomorrow ?
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Alby
26.12.2018 kl 21:15
10393
Oljeprisen passert 8 %
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Fluefiskeren
26.12.2018 kl 21:26
10351
Mente å huske at denne bloggeren Moonflash2017 hadde skrevet om Panoro også tidligere. Stemte bra det. Ett år siden.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/49022789-moonflash2017/5088683-panoro-energy-asa-rare-oil-gas-investment-opportunity-massive-upside-potentia
EDIT
Gunnarius mente å vite hvem denne Moonflash2017 er. Da er det to av oss?
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/49022789-moonflash2017/5088683-panoro-energy-asa-rare-oil-gas-investment-opportunity-massive-upside-potentia
EDIT
Gunnarius mente å vite hvem denne Moonflash2017 er. Da er det to av oss?
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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gunnarius
26.12.2018 kl 22:12
10221
Må si det var heftige greier på Wall Street i dag med ~5% oppgang. Olja følger i skrivende stund på med ~9% oppgang til rundt $55.
Ingen grunn til å friskmelde noe som helst, men signalet i dag dokumenterer at oljeprisen er særdeles volatil og vil svinge også videre fremover. En del av oppgangen må tillegges at Russland sammen med OPEC så tydelig har meldt at oljeprisen skal opp - koste hva det koste vil. Da greier ikke skiferen demme opp på så kort tid inntil minst flaskehalsproblematikken (bl.a. pipelines) løses senere i 2019. Holder oljeprisen seg til i morgen bør det for O&G aksjene gi vesentlig oppgang.
Ingen grunn til å friskmelde noe som helst, men signalet i dag dokumenterer at oljeprisen er særdeles volatil og vil svinge også videre fremover. En del av oppgangen må tillegges at Russland sammen med OPEC så tydelig har meldt at oljeprisen skal opp - koste hva det koste vil. Da greier ikke skiferen demme opp på så kort tid inntil minst flaskehalsproblematikken (bl.a. pipelines) løses senere i 2019. Holder oljeprisen seg til i morgen bør det for O&G aksjene gi vesentlig oppgang.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Alby
27.12.2018 kl 14:30
9796
Jeg hadde virkelig et håp om oppgang i dag !!
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JUICEitUP
27.12.2018 kl 14:54
9740
Veldig grundig analyse, men jeg er enig med Spitzer i at det hele tiden legges frem best case scenarios. Når det er sagt blir dette bra, også om man kun legger seg på medium.
Samtidig slipper ikke panikken og da spillee det fundamentale svært liten rolle. Det er umulig å spå bunn og støtter ser ut til å være der kun for å brytes. Tenk på et ensriffret tall og du kan få rett omtrent på alle 9. Jeg klarer bare å finne 3 ord på det vi ser nå - galematias, krakk og panikk.
Jeg er long og skal ha med meg medium versjonen av den grundige analysen.
Samtidig slipper ikke panikken og da spillee det fundamentale svært liten rolle. Det er umulig å spå bunn og støtter ser ut til å være der kun for å brytes. Tenk på et ensriffret tall og du kan få rett omtrent på alle 9. Jeg klarer bare å finne 3 ord på det vi ser nå - galematias, krakk og panikk.
Jeg er long og skal ha med meg medium versjonen av den grundige analysen.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Fluefiskeren
27.12.2018 kl 15:02
9710
Pen er da ikke så ille idag sammenlignet med de fleste andre.
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bmw5
27.12.2018 kl 15:15
9657
Slik har det vert mange ganger før nytt år. Så begynner det pent og pyntelig igjen i det nye året dersom ikke verden går til helv----. Skatteplanlegging kalles nedgangen før nytt år. Mange store investorer var med på emisjonen og noen trenger vel mindre skatt for å overleve
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Fluefiskeren
27.12.2018 kl 15:39
9605
BMW
For meg er det helt greit med nedgang idag og imorgen. Litt mindre formueskatt.
For meg er det helt greit med nedgang idag og imorgen. Litt mindre formueskatt.
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bmw5
27.12.2018 kl 16:04
9527
Flere investorer som kjøpte i emisjonen presser aksjen ned og kjøper igjen på lav kurs. Alt tyder på at pen er et veldrevet selskap som har store muligheter til å lykkes i 2019. det som plager Pen er få aksjer og lett å manipulere. Derfor burde aksjen splittes i to.
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oivindl
27.12.2018 kl 16:40
9451
"... det som plager Pen er få aksjer..."
Er det noen som teller antall aksjer, når de kjøper eller selger, uavhengig av total kjøps- eller salgsum?
Om du vil selge aksjer for 100 000, spiller det vel liten rolle om det er 10 000 eller 20 000 aksjer.
Tviler på at dobling av antall aksjer har betydning.
Er det noen som teller antall aksjer, når de kjøper eller selger, uavhengig av total kjøps- eller salgsum?
Om du vil selge aksjer for 100 000, spiller det vel liten rolle om det er 10 000 eller 20 000 aksjer.
Tviler på at dobling av antall aksjer har betydning.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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gunnarius
27.12.2018 kl 19:40
9259
Som det pleier være, er det øretrilling i PEN-aksjen med volum i handel i dag på ca. 1% av utestående aksjer. For å få sving på dette her må volumet opp og da må enten kjøpspresset tilta, noe skje på meldingsfronten eller oljeprisen løfte seg en del.
Geopolitkk og støy ifm. makro og handelskrigen må vise bedring/løsning, samt OPEC+ tiltak bli verifisert funker og at markedet har tillit til at kutt etterleves. OPEC har en jopbb å gjøre bl.a. ved å vise kvotene og vilje til etterlevelse. Kutt fra januar, så det er fra nå av at produksjonsendring kan bli målt. Er selv meget interessert i å få meldt om den globale etterspørselen etter olje påvirkes vesentlig - gitt lavere antatt global vekst. Lavere oljepris vil trolig påvirke/øke etterspørselen, men også samtidig kanskje redusere den totale globale etterspørselen. Blir spennende å se. Prognoser er usikre greier.
Tror det beste og enkleste rett og slett er å glemme/beholde PEN aksjene til litt i første runde ut i januar, før det bør skje noe - enten internt eller eksternt.
Den der PEN-analysen lagt ut på Seeking Alpha tok for seg tre prisscenarier, ett på bl.a. hvor oljeprisen sånn ca. er som i dag på USD 55. PEN kan leve godt av denne oljeprisen basert på analysen, samt PENs assets: Aje, OMV deal og Dussafu.
Ingen i OPEC+ er happy med oljepris ned mot $50 eller lavere. Kunne oljeprisen gå opp ca. 9% i går, kan den basert på tiltak og øvrige forhold gå 10-20% på relativt kort tid. Og da står PEN i NOK 20+. Bi bare litt og tenk på andre ting, så ordner trolig dette her seg, men man må være inne.
En runde med berg - og dalbane er egentlig nok. Bare å feste setebeltene og kjøre klar for nye runder.
Geopolitkk og støy ifm. makro og handelskrigen må vise bedring/løsning, samt OPEC+ tiltak bli verifisert funker og at markedet har tillit til at kutt etterleves. OPEC har en jopbb å gjøre bl.a. ved å vise kvotene og vilje til etterlevelse. Kutt fra januar, så det er fra nå av at produksjonsendring kan bli målt. Er selv meget interessert i å få meldt om den globale etterspørselen etter olje påvirkes vesentlig - gitt lavere antatt global vekst. Lavere oljepris vil trolig påvirke/øke etterspørselen, men også samtidig kanskje redusere den totale globale etterspørselen. Blir spennende å se. Prognoser er usikre greier.
Tror det beste og enkleste rett og slett er å glemme/beholde PEN aksjene til litt i første runde ut i januar, før det bør skje noe - enten internt eller eksternt.
Den der PEN-analysen lagt ut på Seeking Alpha tok for seg tre prisscenarier, ett på bl.a. hvor oljeprisen sånn ca. er som i dag på USD 55. PEN kan leve godt av denne oljeprisen basert på analysen, samt PENs assets: Aje, OMV deal og Dussafu.
Ingen i OPEC+ er happy med oljepris ned mot $50 eller lavere. Kunne oljeprisen gå opp ca. 9% i går, kan den basert på tiltak og øvrige forhold gå 10-20% på relativt kort tid. Og da står PEN i NOK 20+. Bi bare litt og tenk på andre ting, så ordner trolig dette her seg, men man må være inne.
En runde med berg - og dalbane er egentlig nok. Bare å feste setebeltene og kjøre klar for nye runder.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Fluefiskeren
27.12.2018 kl 22:08
9085
For å følge med i aktiviteten i fremtidig skiferoljeproduksjon gir denne en god hjelp. Siste side viser at antall aktive rigger falt med 27 siste uke i USA. Fulgte disse rigcounts ved forrige nedgang i oljeprisen og den gir en veldig god oversikt over hvordan man ser for seg fremtiden.
https://rigdata.com/downloadproduct.aspx?p=F29E3588-983E-4552-9254-5F29BAE73CC6
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsoverview
Siste link viser olje og gass samlet.
https://rigdata.com/downloadproduct.aspx?p=F29E3588-983E-4552-9254-5F29BAE73CC6
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsoverview
Siste link viser olje og gass samlet.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Alby
28.12.2018 kl 10:35
8802
Ser ut som årets siste børsdag skal bli grei for oss ??
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polion
28.12.2018 kl 10:40
8777
Javisst, + nesten 10% lar seg høre. Endelig begynner "liket" å bevege seg i rett retning, i retning der den hører hjemme.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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bmw5
28.12.2018 kl 11:29
8672
Det ser ut som det er mange som har brukt for mye penger i julen og må få redusert skatten for ikke å gå på en smell. Det er nå man skal legge grunnlaget for en Pen gevinst, for Pen er et selskap som har de beste forutsetninger for å lykkes. Pen styres av oljenæringens beste mannskap og av den grunn har jeg stor tro på et godt resultat i 2019 .2020. Jeg kom, jeg så, jeg vant.
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gunnarius
28.12.2018 kl 11:44
8641
Selskapet har i allefall gjort det som var mulig for å øke produksjonen fra ~400 fat per dag i januar 2018 til ~2.600 fat per dag i januar 2019. En glimrende jobb, så stor takk til management og styre. Panoro er nå rigget for oppgang - brura er ferdig pynta.
Panoro er så til de grader underlagt oljeprisen og det er her aksjonærene virkelig må satse på en oppgang.
Hva oljeprsen vil bli i H1 eller H2 2019, er det ingen som vet. Markedet har prognoser å forholde seg til, samt kutt på 1.2 mill. fat per dag, som OPEC+ har avtalt vil bli impelemntert fra januar 2019. IMO 2020 reguleringene antas medføre større etterspørsel etter olje, samt den generelt globale veksten vil svelge unna en del.
IEA forsøker etter beste evne å få oversikten og best mulig beslutningsgrunnlag. Men også denne instansen sliter med reelle betraktninger om utfall, kun prognoser. Man må forvente at OPEC+ kutt med 1.2 mill. fat per dag er innenfor den ramme som medfører at prisene stabiliseres på et høyere prisleie. Som sagt, Saudi Arabia legger til grunn $80 i sitt 2019 budsjett. Dette hadde ikke saudiene gjort med mindre landet visste eller forutså et prisleie med basis minst $60-70. For 2018 la saudiene til grunn for sitt budsjett $63. Hvorfor økningen og hvordan denne kan rettferdiggjøres for 2019 må bl.a. finnes i det skisserte kuttet som OPEC+ har kommet opp med fra januar 2019.
Det vil trolig bli et overskudd i olje tidlig i 2019, men ingen vet med sikkerhet utviklingen. Uansett vil neppe overskuddet være så stort i Q1 2019 at oljeprisen kollapser. Er vel trolig noe av det sikreste man kan konkludere med, dersom noe hva angår olje er sikkert basert på OPECs kutt.
Interessant artikkel hvor IEA mener det drar seg til i 2019. Lykke til folkens - det er stort sett oljeprisen det handler om nå og videre i 2019:
IEA sees global oil supply tightening more quickly in 2019
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/iea-sees-global-oil-supply-tightening-more-quickly-2019
Panoro er så til de grader underlagt oljeprisen og det er her aksjonærene virkelig må satse på en oppgang.
Hva oljeprsen vil bli i H1 eller H2 2019, er det ingen som vet. Markedet har prognoser å forholde seg til, samt kutt på 1.2 mill. fat per dag, som OPEC+ har avtalt vil bli impelemntert fra januar 2019. IMO 2020 reguleringene antas medføre større etterspørsel etter olje, samt den generelt globale veksten vil svelge unna en del.
IEA forsøker etter beste evne å få oversikten og best mulig beslutningsgrunnlag. Men også denne instansen sliter med reelle betraktninger om utfall, kun prognoser. Man må forvente at OPEC+ kutt med 1.2 mill. fat per dag er innenfor den ramme som medfører at prisene stabiliseres på et høyere prisleie. Som sagt, Saudi Arabia legger til grunn $80 i sitt 2019 budsjett. Dette hadde ikke saudiene gjort med mindre landet visste eller forutså et prisleie med basis minst $60-70. For 2018 la saudiene til grunn for sitt budsjett $63. Hvorfor økningen og hvordan denne kan rettferdiggjøres for 2019 må bl.a. finnes i det skisserte kuttet som OPEC+ har kommet opp med fra januar 2019.
Det vil trolig bli et overskudd i olje tidlig i 2019, men ingen vet med sikkerhet utviklingen. Uansett vil neppe overskuddet være så stort i Q1 2019 at oljeprisen kollapser. Er vel trolig noe av det sikreste man kan konkludere med, dersom noe hva angår olje er sikkert basert på OPECs kutt.
Interessant artikkel hvor IEA mener det drar seg til i 2019. Lykke til folkens - det er stort sett oljeprisen det handler om nå og videre i 2019:
IEA sees global oil supply tightening more quickly in 2019
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/iea-sees-global-oil-supply-tightening-more-quickly-2019
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Fluefiskeren
28.12.2018 kl 12:31
8529
Hmmmmm
Oppgangen kunne jo ha ventet en dag. Det hadde betydd noen lapper mindre i formueskatt.
Oppgangen kunne jo ha ventet en dag. Det hadde betydd noen lapper mindre i formueskatt.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Jannern
28.12.2018 kl 14:50
8409
Ser at flere skriver at Seeking Alpha forfatteren har et slags best mulig utfall i analysen. Dette er både ubegunnet av de som hevder det (har dere solgt i panikken kanskje?) og er helt feil. Artikkelforfatter er ekstremt saklig og grundig. Det er en utrolig bra analyse. Produksjonstallene er helt innenfor det selskapet har guidet på. Når det gjelder exploration delen, så er det jo ikke priset inn noe. Forfatter skriver om scenarioer. Nettopp for å synligjøre hva som er verdiene ved funn.
Av alt jeg har sett på Hegnar forumet så er dette noe av det beste som har blitt lagt ut her. og sett på dagens kursutvikling, så traff artikkelforfatter utrolig bra!
Var gøy å kunne dele den!
Godt nytt år!
Av alt jeg har sett på Hegnar forumet så er dette noe av det beste som har blitt lagt ut her. og sett på dagens kursutvikling, så traff artikkelforfatter utrolig bra!
Var gøy å kunne dele den!
Godt nytt år!
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Fluefiskeren
28.12.2018 kl 15:05
8366
Jannern
Det er vel ingen som har kritisert analysen, men du må jo være enig i at det er riktig av han å opplyse at han er long i selskapet. Det er jo naturlig og ikke minst riktig å ha dette i bakhodet. Det er ikke det samme som å si at analysen ikke er verdifull.Den er meget bra og som vanlig velskrevet.
Det er vel ingen som har kritisert analysen, men du må jo være enig i at det er riktig av han å opplyse at han er long i selskapet. Det er jo naturlig og ikke minst riktig å ha dette i bakhodet. Det er ikke det samme som å si at analysen ikke er verdifull.Den er meget bra og som vanlig velskrevet.
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Trond.heim
28.12.2018 kl 15:33
8354
Fluefisker og Gunnarius: Hvem tror dere står bak analysen?
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Fluefiskeren
28.12.2018 kl 15:47
8319
Trond.heim
He-he. Du lurer ikke meg. Det ville være helt galt av meg.
EDIT. Dessuten KAN jeg jo ta feil (men tror det ikke). Forsåvidt spiller det vel ikke så stor rolle heller.
He-he. Du lurer ikke meg. Det ville være helt galt av meg.
EDIT. Dessuten KAN jeg jo ta feil (men tror det ikke). Forsåvidt spiller det vel ikke så stor rolle heller.
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Fluefiskeren
28.12.2018 kl 15:58
8279
Fin dag. PEN har tatt opp sin gamle vane med å ligge øverst på listen over dagens vinnere. ?
Når det gjelder hele året har selskapet falt fra 1. plass til 4. plass. Ikke dårlig det heller. Vi klager kanskje for mye noen og enhver av oss.
https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/12/Vinnerne-og-taperne-paa-Oslo-Boers-i-2018
Når det gjelder hele året har selskapet falt fra 1. plass til 4. plass. Ikke dårlig det heller. Vi klager kanskje for mye noen og enhver av oss.
https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/12/Vinnerne-og-taperne-paa-Oslo-Boers-i-2018
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Jannern
28.12.2018 kl 16:20
8212
Fluefiskeren:
Analysen ble avsluttet med:
Disclosure: I am/we are long PEN NO.
Så forfatter har opplyst om at vedkommende eier aksjer i Panoro...
Hva er det han/hun burde ha gjort foruten dette?
Analysen ble avsluttet med:
Disclosure: I am/we are long PEN NO.
Så forfatter har opplyst om at vedkommende eier aksjer i Panoro...
Hva er det han/hun burde ha gjort foruten dette?
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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Fluefiskeren
28.12.2018 kl 16:33
8174
Jannern
Det er jo nettopp det jeg har sagt ihvertfall to ganger at han har gjort. Jeg synes det er greit å vite, og det forbeholder jeg meg retten til. Det er ikke kritikk i det hele tatt. Tror du skal lese på nytt.
Det er jo nettopp det jeg har sagt ihvertfall to ganger at han har gjort. Jeg synes det er greit å vite, og det forbeholder jeg meg retten til. Det er ikke kritikk i det hele tatt. Tror du skal lese på nytt.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:36
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