Men hvor mye går de i minus for kvartalet, det er spørsmålet

SB1M var ute med en oppdatering på SPU i går i forkant av dagens melding fra selskapet. Da skrev de blant annet følgende, så får vi se hva de og andre slipper av meldinger etter dagens oppdatering:

"SPU (Buy, TP NOK 60 (80)): We expect strong Q4 late sales and like Spectrum's positioning for 2019

Conclusion
Spectrum is due to report a trading update for Q4'18 tomorrow, where we estimate revenues of USD 52m and net cash of USD 1m. We estimate strong late sales of USD 47m,up 32% y/y, with the majority of sales from Brazil, Argentina and Gabon. The prefunding level has been low in the quarter, and we also reduce our prefunding ratio estimates for 2019 and 2020. Spectrum's strong position in several high-impact areas is howeversupportive for our 13% y/y late sales growth estimate for 2019. The Spectrum share price has been hammered with the oil price and oil services sell-off, but we believe a too weak outlook is discounted in the current share price. At 1.4x EV/Library and 5x P/Eon 2019e, we find the valuation highly attractive. We maintain Buy and rate Spectrum among our top picks in the oil service space, albeit at a lower target price of NOK 60 (80).

Our analysis
• Q4 update due tomorrow – We expect strong late sales and soft prefunding: Spectrum is due to reporta financial update for Q4'18 tomorrow, where we expect the company will report revenues of USD 52m and net cash of USD 1m. We estimate late sales of USD 47m, up 32% from USD 36m in Q4'17. To our understanding, the majority of late sales stems from Brazil,Argentina and Gabon, which have been key areas for Spectrum in 2018, and which we expect will serve as important markets for the company also in 2019. We estimate USD 5m in prefunding revenues for the quarter, down from USD 10m in Q4'17. Breaking this up,we estimate MC capex of USD 12m, which is slightly up y/y but estimated prefunding ratio of 45% is down from 101% in Q4'17. The lower prefunding ratio is largely due to low prefunding one of the two key surveys in Brazil, but also that the general willingnessto prefunding seismic surveys remains subdued. We estimate a Q4 net cash position of USD 1m (USD 32m cash and USD 31m IBD), with cash flow in the quarter negatively impacted by payment of risk-sharing partners, seasonal working capital buildup and low prefundingratio on MC investments.

• Strong position in high-impact areas in 2019 supports late sales estimates – Prefunding slightly down: Brazil, Argentina, Gabon and Mozambique remain key areas for Spectrum also in 2019. Of seismic hot spots globally, we are particularly positive towards Brazil, where Spectrumis well positioned through its extensive and growing MC library. This view was supported by Petrobras' recently announced E&P spending plan for 2019-2023. The company plans to spend USD 11bn on exploration, which is up around 65% from USD 6.6bn guided in the2018-2022 plan. Spectrum has recently announced two large 3D surveys in Brazil, a USD ~30m net investment in Santos in a 50/50 JV with TGS (low prefunding) and a USD 40-45m sole investment in Potiguar (high prefunding, 60%+). More than 90% of the combinedMC capex of USD 70-75m will be taken in 2019, meaning more than half of our 2019 MC capex estimate of USD 120m is covered by these two surveys alone. We keep our MC capex estimate for now, but do see upside here. We however lower assumed prefunding ratio for2019 and 2020 from 50% to 45% as prefunding levels in the industry continue to remain subdued. We maintain our late sales estimate of USD 114m as we do not find our 13% estimated y/y growth aggressive for Spectrum.

• Highly appealing valuation, both in absolute and relative terms: The Spectrum share price has been hammered with the oil price and oil services sell-off, but we believe a too weak outlook is discounted in the current share price. We keepour Buy recommendation and continue to highlight Spectrum as one of our top picks in the oil service universe. Asset light business model, outlook for strong revenue growth as risk sharing revenue comes though, exposure towards several exciting licensing rounds,and historical high ROCE are key reasons for buying Spectrum. Although we reduce our estimates and trim our target from NOK 80 to NOK 60, we find the current valuation highly appealing, both absolutely and relatively speaking. The company is e.g. is tradingat a low P/E of 5x on our 2019e and 4x on 2020e. The current EV/Library multiple is also down to 1.4x, below the 2x 2009-2018 average for Spectrum and 44% below TGS currently at 2.5x.

Analysts
Tommy Johannessen"

Spektrum har aldri tjent penger, det kommer de heller ikke til å gjøre i 2019

@Matsern:

Det ser ut til at du har et hjertebarn du snakker varmt for/om, og at alt annet er "dritt". Da er vel det beste for deg å diskutere "barnet ditt", ikke rakke ned på og spre dritt på alle andre tråder. Ønsker deg riktig god bedring.

Et light asset seismikkselskap uten båter som ikke klarer å tjene penger selv om de skviser seismkkselskaper med båter, er «dritt»