A tripling of LNG output likely to hit the shipping market


A predicted tripling of sanctions for global LNG projects in 2019 threatens to disrupt future shipping logistics as demand for the gas enters a more volatile phase because of a rapid increase in supply.

This is the result of a likely record year for final investment decisions (FIDs) that will ultimately deliver more than 60M tonnes of LNG per year (mta), nearly three times the 21 mta sanctioned in 2018, as the research director for Wood Mackenzie Giles Farrer forecasts. Inevitably, increased availability of LNG will influence where tankers deliver their loads.

But Wood Mackenzie also predicts shorter-term volatility in the vagaries of the weather that could affect shipping movements – “a mild end to [the 2019] winter could send more LNG into Europe and drive prices down further,” he said.

The energy consultant’s predictions come at a time of concern over the availability of LNG tankers to handle the huge extra output, particularly in the spot market because most of the fleet are locked into exclusive long-term charters. In a mid-2018 study, the International Energy Agency highlighted a possible shortfall in vessels as a threat to the security of supply, particularly in more remote regions.

The dearth of available LNG carriers is reflected in rocketing spot charter rates. In November, they shot to US$190,000 a day, five times higher than in early May.

Overall though, it appears the tanker fleet will have to adjust to changes in demand in the medium-term future. “Asian LNG demand growth will not keep pace with LNG supply and Europe – northwest Europe in particular – will have to absorb the surplus, especially during the summer,” he predicted in a release this week. “But Europe needs additional imports and flexibility, given its increased reliance on maxed-out Russian and Norwegian imports.”

It is therefore likely, he added, “there would be more LNG imports than required. And that in turn would provide competition to pipe imports and put pressure on prices,” he said. However Mr Farrer does not see the level of oversupply in 2019 that others fear.

A record number of LNG projects, as measured by volume, are due to get the green light. Wood Mackenzie sees the frontrunners in the race to hit FID in 2019 as the giant US$27Bn Arctic LNG-2 project in Russia, at least one project in Mozambique and three in America. Of the latter, Wood Mackenzie identifies three major operations as top picks – Golden Pass, Calcasieu Pass and Sabine Pass Train 6.

But that is not all. There are other projects in the pipeline in America as well as in Qatar, Papua New Guinea, Australia and Nigeria, all aiming for FID in 2019.

Wood Mackenzie sees other global influences that would inevitably determine the course of the growing LNG shipping network. “A recession would bring gas/LNG demand and oil prices down, delay FIDs and push the global LNG market back a few years,” said Mr Farrer. “But there could be a worse scenario for the gas market: a major economic downturn happening in 2020 or 2021, just after 60-100 mta of LNG has taken FID. That would wipe out our forecast price recovery post-2020 and make our forecast that prices soften a little around 2025 look a lot worse.”

Chinese demand is also less certain than it was in 2018, particularly if Beijing rethinks its headlong switch from coal to gas. In the last two years demand for LNG hovered between 40-45% growth, but that could fall to about 20%. However, as Wood Mackenzie pointed out, even if that happened China would remain by far the largest customer for LNG in the global market.

https://www.lngworldshipping.com/news/view,a-tripling-of-lng-output-likely-to-hit-the-shipping-market_56372.htm
RSinvest
12.01.2019 kl 14:24 17823

Growth in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market last year was “driven by Asia and that Asian component has been driven by China,” Anatol Feygin, executive vice president and chief commercial officer of Cheniere Energy explained at the Atlantic Council’s 2019 Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi on January 12.

The 30 million ton increase in the global LNG market in 2018 was almost exclusively due to growth in the Asian market, Feygin explained, fueled by a desire among China, Japan, South Korea, and others to “transition towards cleaner fuels.” While demand is up over all of Asia, “China is going to be for the foreseeable future a very large driver of natural gas demand and LNG as well,” Feygin said.

Wang Zhongying, the director general of the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission’s Energy Research Institute, said that he believes his country is in the first phase of a comprehensive energy transition, during which time cleaner sources of energy—such as natural gas—will be vital. “Our fossil fuels still count for almost 87 percent of total primary energies,” Wang explained. “Our priority is to reduce coal consumption. So during the first phase if we can use more and more gas, that will help us.”

The need for cleaner forms of fuel is not just limited to China, however, as Jennifer Gnana, an energy reporter for The National and the panel moderator explained. “Asian energy demand has been forecast to grow by 37 percent by 2025 and as a result of this growth it is expected to see an increase in energy imports by around 53 percent,” she said. At the same time, “due to the volatility in the price of oil as well as the pollution in metros seen in China and India there has been a growing transition of these economies to a more decarbonized energy model.”

“Three years ago, everyone knew for a fact that the world was going to be oversupplied with LNG,” recalled David Hobbs, a senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. “The basis of that was a vast expansion of supply, but that the two potentially large importers, China and India, would not be able to pay the price necessary for LNG to come into their markets in a big way. What changed was the realization that social stability and public health was being affected by air quality and people were prepared to pay that price.”

In Japan, the Fukushima accident in 2011 has spurred action to replace nuclear power with other forms of fuel such as LNG, Yongsung Cho, president of the Korea Energy Economics Institute, said. South Korea’s attempted transition away from coal-fired power plants has spurred similar demand, Cho said. Despite a shared concern in procuring cheap LNG, Cho lamented, China, South Korea, and Japan have yet to undertake concerted cooperation in the energy market.

Asia’s growing appetite for LNG is also the subject of a new report by Atlantic Council senior fellow Jean-Francois Seznec, “Meeting Asian LNG Demand.” In the paper, Seznec explores the impact of LNG demand on the geopolitical relationships between LNG producers around the world and the new customers in Asia.

There is no guarantee, however, that Asia’s love affair with LNG will last, the panelists warned. One threat mentioned was the United States’ continued trade war with China, which saw Beijing slap a 10 percent tariff on imported US LNG in September. “It would be unfair for me to say that I am not against these tariffs that have been in place. I think it is additional friction in the market,” Feygin said. He trusts, however, that the global LNG market “is large enough and liquid enough to appropriately distribute the molecules to their most economically efficient destination.” Hobbs agreed saying he suspects that “the quantities of gas going into Asia will be totally unaffected by tariffs…but exactly whose gas goes where may be up for discussion.” While he does see the trade war as “a big impediment,” Feygin said, he “would prefer it wasn’t there.”

A considerable rise in the price of LNG could also cause a significant dent in Asian demand for LNG. “If the gas price increases too much,” Wang said, “I think we will move to another energy source.” According to Cho, South Korea is looking forward in the long term to a potential ground pipeline from Russia, should relations between North and South Korea dramatically improve.

While China and others have shouldered LNG’s higher prices in order to ensure progress on lessening pollution, it will always be a cost benefit analysis, Hobbs argued. “Governments in Asia put welfare generation—in other words economic growth and development—ahead of long-term decarbonization, and they always will.”



https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/china-is-fueling-up-on-lng-but-will-it-last
12.01.2019 kl 23:23 17620

Det er mange utfordringer, men alt tyder jo på at forbruket av gass vil øke og at behovet etter transport av LNG vil øke.
Nesten merkelig at det ikke er mere bevegelse i selskaper som Flex som har mange skip i bestilling.
https://www.flexlng.com/fleet-list/
RSinvest
14.01.2019 kl 21:15 17282

China Pushes LNG Imports to the Limit

China is importing record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to meet its air quality targets and may have no alternative for the next several years, experts say.

In November, China's LNG imports soared 48.5 percent from a year earlier to 5.99 million metric tons, according to customs figures. In the 11-month period, imports of 47.52 million tons climbed 43.6 percent from a year before, the official Xinhua news agency said.

Total natural gas imports, including both pipeline gas and LNG, rose 31.9 percent to a record of 90.39 million tons last year, the General Administration of Customs said Monday.

Last year marked the second in a row of LNG growth rates of over 40 percent as the government presses ahead with its wintertime fuel-switching policy to reduce heating with high- polluting coal.

Despite higher costs and infrastructure problems, the government has shown determination to pursue the gas policy as the gap between domestic production and consumption grows.

In November, China's gas output jumped 10.1 percent from a year earlier, but the daily consumption rate also rose to a new record on Nov. 21, Reuters reported, citing the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

A detailed study released last month by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies suggests that China faces a critical period between now and 2020 with implications for the international LNG market, depending on how far the government pushes its fuel-switching campaign.

Total natural gas consumption in 2020 will range between 300 billion and 400 billion cubic meters (10.6 trillion and 14.1 trillion cubic feet), based on minimum and maximum estimates of coal-to-gas switching, said the study by senior researchers and analysts at Osaka Gas Co., Ltd. of Japan.

Central Asian pipeline network

Domestic gas production is likely to contribute 180 billion to 200 billion cubic meters (bcm), or anywhere from 45 to 67 percent of consumption. In the first 11 months of 2018, China's gas output inched up 6.6 percent from a year earlier to 143.8 bcm, Reuters said, citing National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.

China can fill some of the gap with imports of pipeline gas, but capacity and supplies will be limited, the study said.

The country's major Central Asian pipeline network from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan is nearing its rated capacity of 55 bcm per year. Efforts are planned to boost the volume to 65 bcm with new compressor stations, but progress on building a fourth strand of the system through Tajikistan appears stalled.

Last year, the Central Asian system increased supplies by 21 percent to 46.9 bcm, according to state-owned Turkmengaz, as reported by Azerbaijan's Trend News Agency.

Another import pipeline through Myanmar is expected to deliver only modest volumes to China in 2020, estimated at 4 bcm, despite its 10-bcm capacity.

And Russia's mammoth Power of Siberia gas pipeline project, scheduled to open next December, will supply China with only 6 bcm in 2020, the analysts said. By then, the total of pipeline gas available to China will reach only 55- 65 bcm, they said.

The rest of China's demand will have to be filled by LNG imports, although the conclusions are subject to a host of variables.

Last year, China overtook South Korea to become the world's second-largest LNG importer, surpassed only by Japan.

According to the study, China had 19 receiving terminals for the tanker-borne fuel with an annual capacity of about 59.6 million tons as of last August. The volume is the equivalent of about 81 bcm.

By 2020, new terminals and other infrastructure could raise LNG import capacity to as much as 70 million tons, or about 95 bcm.

‘Virtually impossible to meet projected demand’

Although some of China's terminals have already operated at more than 100 percent of their rated capacity, the study concludes that "it will be virtually impossible to meet projected demand" if China sticks to its maximum target for switching from coal to gas.

Capacity constraints will also keep China from meeting its 2020 target for raising the natural gas share of its primary energy supply to 10 percent, the study said. Gas is believed to account for about 6 percent of the country's energy mix now.

The authors also see implications for LNG demand beyond 2020 if Russia's plans for larger volumes of pipeline gas are delayed.

The study said that "LNG demand will depend above all on steady growth in natural gas imports from Russia from 2020 onward. If imports from Russia grow steadily, this makes it more likely that LNG imports will slow from 2020. Conversely, if natural gas imports from Russia do not, for some reason, grow as planned, dependence on LNG will increase further."

The conclusions suggest that China may have to pursue more moderate targets or build even more LNG infrastructure to avoid excessive reliance on Russian supplies.

Mikkal Herberg, energy security research director for the Seattle-based National Bureau of Asian Research, said the report highlights both pluses and minuses for China as gas demand rises at astronomical rates.

On the plus side, the finding that eastern LNG import terminals were able to operate at over 100 percent of rated capacity suggests there may be elasticity in the system, said Herberg.

On the downside, the average 82-percent utilization rate of all terminals as of mid 2018 is a sign that the system will be running "pretty close to flat out" with the larger volumes expected in 2020, he said.

Although the international LNG market is expected to be well supplied over the next two years, any glitch in China's system could lead to sudden shortages.

"It's still a pretty rickety LNG and gas supply logistics system bumping up against stunning increases in LNG use," Herberg said by email.

"Lots can go wrong, especially if there's a very cold winter in 2019 or 2020," he said. "The system will be running so tight that things will get very difficult, and serious regional supply shortages would inevitably occur."

'Industry and market indigestion’

Vessel traffic at China's receiving terminals is likely to become intense if current growth rates continue.

The study noted that in December 2017, the NDRC issued emergency measures in response to gas shortages, ordering 39 LNG cargoes in addition to the 248 that had already been planned for the winter season.

The potential for disruption came into focus over the weekend after a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carrier leaked gas into the water near Dongying port in east China's Shandong province, Xinhua reported.

The incident on Saturday due to a valve malfunction on a South Korean-registered tanker is being monitored for environmental impacts, Xinhua and China Global Television Network (CGTN) said.

Ships have been warned to avoid the area. Xinhua reported Monday that the leak had been stopped.

Other reports have raised questions about the availability of LNG carriers (LNGCs) to respond to high demand growth and winter emergencies.

According to the latest count by the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), the world fleet of LNGCs consisted of only 467 tankers in mid-2018.

The low rate of orders for new vessels suggests that China's demand growth could exceed fleet capacity.

"Considering that LNGC construction takes between two and three years, fleet capacity is expected to remain almost flat in 2020 (and possibly 2022) unless new orders are placed in the coming months," the IEA said in its October report.

Some of those concerns may have been eased by a rush of new orders late in the year, a report last month by lngworldshipping.com said.

But the lengthening list of potential problems suggests that China has entered a high-risk period as it strives to meet its air quality and energy goals.

"Any country trying to raise LNG imports at the pace and scale of China over the past few years would experience monumental 'industry and market indigestion,'" said Herberg.

China's soaring demand for LNG has already played havoc with shipping costs, affecting the entire Asian market.

Spot charter rates for LNG carriers in November rose fivefold since May to U.S. $190,000 (1.3 million yuan) per day, Japan's Nikkei Asian review reported on Jan. 2.

"We did not expect that we would run short of vessels so quickly," an unidentified official at a major Japanese shipping company was quoted as saying.

https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/energy_watch/china-lng-01142019140904.html
RSinvest
16.01.2019 kl 09:29 17048

LNG vessel spot rates in Pacific below $80,000/d for first time since late Aug

The spot charter rate for LNG spot vessels has fallen below $80,000/day in the Pacific for the first time since late August, with S&P Global Platts assessing Pacific rates at $75,000/day.

The ballast rate was assessed at 100% in the Pacific, meaning shipowners were being fully compensated for the return leg of the journey.
The low came after the market hit a record high of $190,000/day during the fourth quarter on a lack of spot tonnage availability in Asia.

Around 5-10 vessels were said by sources to be available for prompt loading, including offers from portfolio players such as BP, Cheniere and Shell.

Cheniere was said to have sublet the Lena River at around $68,000/day for a spot reload from Kochi, India. Unipec was said to have fixed a Shell or Coolpool vessel in the mid-$70,000s to $80,000/day for an early APLNG load.

Prior to that, ExxonMobil was said to have fixed the British Partner or British Achiever for a February 6-10 Gorgon or PNG load, at a hire rate around the $90,000s/day.

Shipping typically accounts for 5%-20% of the delivered price ex-ship of LNG, meaning big moves in rates can have a significant effect on the final price of delivered gas.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lng-vessel-spot-rates-in-pacific-below-80000-d-for-first-time-since-late-aug/
RSinvest
18.01.2019 kl 16:32 16800

Natural Gas Weekly Update

In the News:
U.S. LNG exports increase this winter, as two new trains are placed in service

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports set two consecutive monthly records in November and December 2018, with 32 and 36 exported cargoes, respectively. Two new liquefaction trains—Sabine Pass Train 5 and Corpus Christi Train 1—began LNG production in late November. EIA estimates that U.S. LNG exports averaged 3.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in November and 3.9 Bcf/d in December, based on the vessel shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

The United States began exporting LNG from the Lower 48 states in February 2016, when the Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal in Louisiana shipped its first cargo. Since then, Sabine Pass expanded from one to five operating liquefaction trains, Cove Point LNG export facility began operation in Maryland, and Corpus Christi Train 1 began LNG production several months ahead of schedule and shipped its first cargo in December. U.S. LNG exports are poised to increase further as more export facilities come online in 2019–21.

Existing U.S. LNG nominal baseload liquefaction capacity is estimated at 4.25 Bcf/d and peak capacity at 4.87 Bcf/d across seven trains at three liquefaction terminals. Once the remaining facilities under construction—Elba Island, Cameron, and Freeport—and the remaining two trains at Corpus Christi are placed in service, EIA estimates that U.S. nominal baseload liquefaction capacity will stand at 9.6 Bcf/d (72.3 million metric tons per annum (mtpa)) and peak capacity at 10.7 Bcf/d (80.9 mtpa). Once all trains are fully ramped up post-2020, U.S. liquefaction facilities will likely operate at peak nominal capacities during periods of peak demand, particularly in winter and summer months.

EIA estimates that Sabine Pass facility has been running above 100% of its nominal baseload liquefaction capacity in the winter months and near 100% of its baseload capacity in the summer months once the new trains at the facility have been fully ramped up. Utilization of the facility in the winter 2017–18 is estimated at 107% of the nominal baseload and 92% of peak capacity; in the summer 2018—at 97% and 83%, respectively. Annual 2018 utilization at Sabine Pass is estimated at 106% of the baseload and 91% of peak capacity. Cove Point terminal has also run above 90% of its baseload capacity in November–December 2018, with an overall utilization of 67% of baseload and 62% of peak capacity since the facility started operation in March 2018.

Because commissioning of the new facilities is done gradually over a period of several months, EIA forecasts U.S. LNG exports to increase gradually in 2019 and average 5.1 Bcf/d on an annual basis, up from 3.0 Bcf/d annual average in 2018. In 2020, however, as the new trains ramp up LNG production, U.S. LNG exports are projected to increase and average 6.8 Bcf/d annually, with higher exports in the winter and summer seasons and lower exports in the spring and fall months.

The latest information on the status of U.S. liquefaction facilities, including expected online dates and capacities, is available in EIA's database of U.S. LNG export facilities.

Overview:
(For the Week Ending Wednesday, January 16, 2019)

Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, January 9 to Wednesday, January 16). Henry Hub spot prices rose from $2.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.61/MMBtu yesterday.
At the Nymex, the price of the February 2019 contract increased 40¢, from $2.984/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.384/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging February 2019 through January 2020 futures contracts climbed 12¢/MMBtu to $2.965/MMBtu.
Net withdrawals from working gas totaled 81 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending January 11. Working natural gas stocks are 2,533 Bcf, which is 3% lower than the year-ago level and 11% lower than the five-year (2014–18) average for this week.
The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 26¢/MMBtu, averaging $6.46/MMBtu for the week ending January 16. The price of natural gasoline, ethane, propane, butane, and isobutane all rose, by 5%, 1%, 7%, 3%, and 1%, respectively.
According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, January 8, the natural gas rig count increased by 4 to 202. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 4 to 873. The total rig count remains unchanged at 1,075.

Prices/Supply/Demand:

Prices rise across most of the Lower 48 states. This report week (Wednesday, January 9 to Wednesday, January 16), Henry Hub spot prices rose 70¢ from $2.91/MMBtu last Wednesday to their weekly high of $3.61/MMBtu yesterday. At the Chicago Citygate, prices increased 82¢ from $2.70/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.52/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures remained cold for most of the report week, and the return of winter weather, especially on the East Coast, put upward pressure on prices.

Northeast prices mostly rise. Below-freezing temperatures across most of the Northeast led to higher prices. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, prices went up $4.78 from $6.60/MMBtu last Wednesday to their weekly high of $11.38/MMBtu yesterday.

Prices at the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point in New York City rose by $2.13 from $3.12/MMBtu last Tuesday to $5.25/MMBtu last Wednesday, in anticipation of colder temperatures. Since then, prices gradually dropped to $4.04/MMBtu yesterday.

Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot prices increased 72¢ from $2.71/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.43/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at Dominion South in southwest Pennsylvania rose 77¢ from $2.65/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.42/MMBtu yesterday.

Prices rise in California. Prices at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose $1.20 from $3.42/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.62/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at SoCal Citygate increased 71¢ from $4.66/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.37/MMBtu yesterday. Higher prices were largely driven by cooler temperatures during the report week, particularly in Southern California, leading to withdrawals from storage.

Discount at Permian Basin trading hub persists. Prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, averaged $2.06/MMBtu last Wednesday, 85¢/MMBtu lower than Henry Hub prices. Yesterday, prices at the Waha Hub averaged $2.29/MMBtu, $1.32/MMBtu lower than Henry Hub prices.

Supply rises as dry natural gas production continues to grow. According to data from PointLogic Energy, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 1% to 94.4 Bcf/d compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 1% to 88 Bcf/d compared with the previous report week. Average net imports from Canada increased by 5% from last week as U.S. imports from Canada increased while U.S. exports to Canada declined.

Demand rises amid cooler temperatures. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 18% compared with the previous report week, according to data from PointLogic Energy, averaging 97.2 Bcf/d. Natural gas consumed for power generation rose 14%. Industrial sector consumption increased 5% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption increased 30%, averaging 46.9 Bcf/d during the report week as winter weather swept through most of the Lower 48 states. Natural gas exports to Mexico declined 1% week over week, averaging 4.7 Bcf/d for the report week.

U.S. LNG exports decrease week over week. Eight LNG vessels (six from Sabine Pass, one from Cove Point, and one from Corpus Christi) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 28.4 Bcf departed the United States between January 10 and January 16, and two vessels were loading on Wednesday―one at Sabine Pass and one at Cove Point—according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg.

Storage:

Net withdrawals from storage totaled 81 Bcf for the week ending January 11, compared with the five-year (2014–18) average net withdrawals of 218 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 208 Bcf during the same week. Working gas stocks totaled 2,533 Bcf, which is 327 Bcf lower than the five-year average and 77 Bcf lower than last year at this time.

According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change from working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 55 Bcf to 92 Bcf, with a median estimate of 82 Bcf.

The average rate of net withdrawals from storage is 31% lower than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season (November through March). If the rate of withdrawals from storage matched the five-year average of 15.5 Bcf/d for the remainder of the withdrawal season, total inventories would be 1,309 Bcf on March 31, which is 327 Bcf lower than the five-year average of 1,636 Bcf for that time of year.

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-rigs-2
RSinvest
21.01.2019 kl 10:08 16588

GLOBAL LNG-Asian prices slip, but plant outages limit losses

Asian spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) continued to fall this week as importers in North Asia have largely finished their purchases for winter, but losses were stemmed as plants closed for maintenance.

Spot prices for March delivery to Asia LNG-AS this week slipped to $8.20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down 10 cents from the previous week, trade sources said.

Prices for cargoes to be delivered in the second-half of February were estimated at about $8.35 per mmBtu, they added.

Several buyers in Japan and China, the two biggest LNG importers globally, said their inventories were sufficient and that spot buying for winter was largely done. Although that could change if temperatures fall.

While Beijing and Shanghai are expected to have above-average temperatures in the coming weeks, Tokyo and Seoul could see a few colder-than-average days, weather data from Refinitiv Eikon showed.

China’s state-owned CNOOC is temporarily storing LNG in a tanker off South Korea as the warmer-than-usual winter has cut expected spot demand for the fuel, industry sources said this week.

Maintenance at two major LNG export plants, both planned and unplanned, helped to keep prices from sliding further, traders said.

Chevron Corp’s Gorgon LNG project in Australia has temporarily halted train 3 to address a mechanical issue, while trains 1 and 2 continued to operate as usual, a company spokesman said earlier this week.

Traders did not expect big delays in exports of cargoes. At least one buyer said shipments from the plant were due to arrive on schedule.

Indonesia’s Bontang LNG export plant has shut one of its production trains for maintenance until the end of January, a company official said this week. The routine maintenance, which typically takes a month, is not expected to affect exports, he added.

Still, supply was ample with several spot cargoes being offered, traders said.

Sources have said Angola’s LNG export plant offered a cargo for delivery over late February to early March, while Exxon Mobil Corp’s Papua New Guinea plant and Russia’s Sakhalin 2 plant sold a cargo each for February at about $8 to $8.30 per mmBtu.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/global-lng-asian-prices-slip-but-plant-outages-limit-losses/
Redigert 21.01.2019 kl 10:09 Du må logge inn for å svare
d12m
21.01.2019 kl 10:29 16547

Gleder meg allerede til neste vintersesong når det ikke er El Niño.

Forøvrig er det gøy å se at CEO Kalleklev gratulerer Styrman med tittelen 'årets finansanalytiker innen shipping" for fjerde året på rad med kommentar om at han må huske å være bull flex så blir det seier også neste år :)

Innlegget er slettet av Triton
pipelort
21.01.2019 kl 19:25 16261

Ja, hva tror du triton? Blir det en stigning herfra?
Triton
21.01.2019 kl 19:48 16216

Tror ratene vil stabilisere seg på dette nivået en stund før det blir stigning frem mot sommeren, vi må huske at en kan plusse på ca 15K på disse ratene for Flex sine skip. Så kommer det to nye i Q2 og Q3 så den leveringen ser ut til å treffe veldig bra med at ratene skal opp i den perioden, men med Trumph i førersetet i verden så kan alt skje.
Men jeg er positiv for LNG markedet fremover de neste årene, verden må ha ren energi og spesielt Kina og India med en formidabel forurensing.
larserne
21.01.2019 kl 19:59 16185

Triton, følger deg og da spesielt på siste avsnitt?
21.01.2019 kl 20:02 16190

Positiv ja, men bare de ikke bygger for mange skip. I gamle dager var det en enorm jobb å bygge LNG skip, men i dag går det unna i en fei.
Om 2 til 4 år frem i tid kan det derfor være mange flere skip en godt er. Fordelen er at FLEX sine skip kommer før mange andre sine skip.
Det spås også at det vil være mange flere mottakere for LNG de neste årene og da kreves det nødvendigvis flere skip også.
delta
21.01.2019 kl 21:13 16119

Triton I dag kl 19:48
Så du tror spot har bunnet ut nå? Og at det vil ligge flatt i noen måneder? Jeg ser av ratestatistikk de siste 8 årene at ratestigning etter sesongmessig ratefall i Q1 normalt først starter i løpet av april en gang. Kan det samme skje i år?

Jeg sakser også fra Pareto i dag morges:

LNGC: Spot market availability increasing, still lower than a year ago
 According to brokers, number of available LNG vessels with prompt available now
stands at eight ships (six in the East, two in the West), up from six vessels in total last
week. We also count 12 units available 30 days out, two more from last week. In sum
this is contributing to increasing pricing power of the charterers, and as such
spot/short term rates are coming down. A year ago we had vessel availability of more
than 23 ships one month out, so availability is still lower than back then
 According to Poten, the rate level west of Suez vessels is now at USD 78k/day (down
from 87k/day w/w), and the eastern market is at USD 76k/day (down from 85k/day)
 The activity level of appears low, though the sentiment for longer term employment
remains flat. The Eastern basin is the most supplied with six vessels available – and an
uptick of demand from eastern byers of western cargoes could quickly absorb the few
available Atlantic vessels, and thus push the whole market upwards

Redigert 21.01.2019 kl 21:14 Du må logge inn for å svare
Triton
21.01.2019 kl 22:07 16050

Delta Idag kl 21:13
Jeg håper at vi ser en bunn i spot markedet med de ratene som er nå, men det skal ikke mye til før ratene vil gå nordover igjen slik som referert til i Parato rapporten. Det kommer flere og flere LNG terminaler i operasjon og mye av den nye tonnasjen som kommer i markedet er oppbundet på lange kontrakter, så jeg har stor tro på at den strategien som Flex har lagt seg på med spot vil vi som aksjonærer høste av. Jeg har invistert i Flex med en lang tidshorisont, og er sikker på at den strategien vil gi gevinst.
delta
21.01.2019 kl 22:28 16020

DnB Markets i ettermiddag (de angir spotpris i dag for LNGC på USD 68,25k/dag):

LNG: 27% YOY growth in China’s December natural gas production likely dampening import need
The latest Chinese industrial production numbers report December natural gas production up 26.5% YOY to end 2018 up 9.2% from last year. The push to shift the country’s energy mix from coal dominated to less pollutive energy sources has seen a major drive for renewables, and the latest data indicates a considerable attention to increase gas production as a greener alternative to coal.

Last year LNG prices in Asia rallied as China’s focus on curbing winter emissions, while this year we argue several factors have dampened the strong winter seasonality in LNG prices. Firstly, the preceding year’s strong seasonality likely prompted end-consumers to stock up ahead of peak season, thereby pushing the price increase earlier during the fall/winter. Furthermore, the contango in the LNG price curve has incentivised traders to store LNG short-term aboard LNG vessels in anticipation of the price increase and essentially building another layer of inventory. And finally, when the winter weather proved to be milder than first anticipated, the demand for LNG imports softened. On top of this we now see a large production increase in China which would slow import demand all else being equal.
Redigert 21.01.2019 kl 22:28 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
21.01.2019 kl 23:08 15990

Mild vinter, men fortsatt ser landet ut som en dass.. Hvordan ser det vanligvis ut? Her er det bare å forsette ombyggingen og kjøre på med gass. Xi Jinping, do you read me.
Men seriøst, det må da ligge i kortene at Kina forplikter seg til kjøp av USA's LNG for å hjelpe til å nulle ut handelsbalansen.
tapogvinn
21.01.2019 kl 23:19 15977

For få måneder siden var det snakk om rater på 200K USD. Nå er vi nede på 1/3 av dette. Plutselig har det dukket opp en rekke faktorer som meglerhusene for kort tid siden ikke tenkte på. Oppgaven med å være analytiker er åpenbart for krevende for mange.

koll
22.01.2019 kl 01:45 15887

Hvis en ser på spot ratene fra i fjord så bunnet de ut rundt 15 mai på 35k .. så det vil være inntresant å se Hvor langt ned den vil komme i år. Men når det begynte å stige i fjord så mener jeg det tok kun en liten mnd før ratene var dobbelt.
RSinvest
22.01.2019 kl 08:21 15762

Ja det stemmer sånn ca., men tenker det i tillegg er grenser hvor billig FLNG kan bli. Kan dog gjerne bli litt billigere da jeg har noen kjøpsordre som ikke er gått gjennom enda. :-)
22.01.2019 kl 15:43 15524

Interessant lesning, men om vi ser på FLEX kursen ser det ikke ut til at mange andre er av samme oppfatning, he he
RSinvest
22.01.2019 kl 17:41 15425

Yees 12,25.. Come to me

Innlegget er slettet av Flipper
RSinvest
23.01.2019 kl 19:34 15044

Limer inn en sak selv om det er fra Hegnar.no. Er klart interessant at energigigantene velger å øke sin eksponering mot LNG trenden vi står overfor. Dette for meg tyder på at det ikke bare oss "småinvestorer" som har fått opp øynene.


Equinor er blant interessentene for andeler i Qatars LNG-prosjekt.

Equinor vurderer LNG-prosjekt i Qatar
Det samme gjør Chevron og Eni.

Både Chevron og Eni er også interessert i å skaffe seg andeler i prosjekter, skriver Reuters.
Qatar forbereder å utstede anbud til selskaper som ønsker å ta del i prosjektet.
Årsaken til at Equinor vurderer å ta del, er at energiselskapet har som mål å utvide LNG-virksomheten sin, skriver nyhetsbyrået.
Varsom
23.01.2019 kl 20:18 15002

Når ser man for seg at ratene tar seg opp igjen for lng, er det til høsten igjen?
d12m
23.01.2019 kl 21:27 14935

Ifjor bunnet ratene månedsskiftet april/mai
Ukens Fearnleyrapport viser forøvrig ny nedgang. 62k (east), 70 (west) og 85 (t/c) mot 70, 78 og 87 forrige uke.
Redigert 23.01.2019 kl 21:29 Du må logge inn for å svare
Varsom
23.01.2019 kl 21:40 14907

Takk for svar! Da venter jeg litt med inngang!
RSinvest
23.01.2019 kl 21:42 14895

Men skipsverdiene er videre opp. En del mill i pluss bare på skipene i forhold til i fjor om noen har lyst å kalkulere dagens NAV. De nye som kommer er også kjøpt med god rabatt takket være J.F.
T/C ratene stikker seg ut i forhold til et år siden kan det nevnes.
RSinvest
23.01.2019 kl 21:48 14878

Trenger ikke nødvendigvis maxe ut ordreboken i morgen nei. Ser ikke så lystig ut på kort sikt.
Varsom
23.01.2019 kl 22:17 14831

Nei, men tviler også på at denne skal så mye lenger ned, men har tatt feil før?
d12m
24.01.2019 kl 14:18 14603

"..men fortsatt ser landet ut som en dass"


Forbes:
"For production, China’s December coal output was 2.1% higher than it was in 2017, hitting the highest level in over three years. The country started up new mines last year and then ramped up production to meet high winter demand. Due to domestic gas supply shortages in recent years, China has been softening its stance to displace coal heating with natural gas.

China approved nearly $6.7 billion worth of new coal mining projects in 2018, and production increased 5.2% to 3.55 billion tonnes.

For imports, now a much larger portion of the supply mix, coal imports in China were up 9% last year."
Flipper
24.01.2019 kl 15:48 14525

Det er vært å merke seg at LNG skip er sofistikerte og tar lang tid å bygge. Meget kostbare å bygge samt drift krever speseiell kunnskap ( Rederi / Management )

Av samme grunn vil ikke dette tonnasje markedet lide '' over kontrahering / spek '', såkalt bjellesau mentalitet som f.eks. bulk / tank, bortsett fra Product Carriers, stainless steel / coated; som også krever spesial kompetanse. Masse av tonnasjen er bygget på basis av en lang avtale med solide befraktere, gjerne statlige selskaper.

Er langsiktig på LNG, med mix av flytende gasification / re-gasification units også på lange charter som en buffer med cashflow.

Det som er spot er hva vi skal tjene penger på, mens, langsiktige kontrakter er for å ha sikkerhet i bunn av kassa.
d12m
24.01.2019 kl 18:05 14430

Hva tenker du om HLNG?
Flipper
24.01.2019 kl 19:19 14367

De er Solide, men, alle FSRU'ene er mot langsitige kontrakter som ikke gir så mye i overskudd.

De ha kun 2 LNG carriers for transport og derfor ser jeg ikke på HLNG som annet enn et sted å sette pengene, i stedet for
i banken.

Oppsiden er alt for liten etter min mening.
24.01.2019 kl 19:28 14352

Det kommer nye skip på løpende bånd. Skal ikke de i spotmarkedet?

https://www.flexlng.com/fleet-list/
Triton
24.01.2019 kl 21:57 14269

Flex skal ha sine primært i spotmarkedet, det er uttalt fra CEO Mr.Kalleklev
Flipper
24.01.2019 kl 22:07 14251

Poenget mitt er at FLNG er en av de få som har ekspertise og fikk kjøpt skipene veldig billig i tillegg.

Ja de har 8 nybygg; med verdens ordrebok er liten for LNG, og kun meget sterke finansielle muskler må til. Nybygg i dag vil koste mye mer, Mye mer.

N/B går nødvendigvis ikke bare på spot, kommer sikkert noen som vil ha langtidskontrakt; eller kjøpe fra FLNG. Da vil prisen gi en solid fortjeneste. Kontraktsprisene på skipene gjør også at FLNG har et stort fortrinn for gode og konkurransedyktig for langtidskontrakt.Begge alternativer kommer godt tilsyn på bunnlinjen.