A tripling of LNG output likely to hit the shipping market


A predicted tripling of sanctions for global LNG projects in 2019 threatens to disrupt future shipping logistics as demand for the gas enters a more volatile phase because of a rapid increase in supply.

This is the result of a likely record year for final investment decisions (FIDs) that will ultimately deliver more than 60M tonnes of LNG per year (mta), nearly three times the 21 mta sanctioned in 2018, as the research director for Wood Mackenzie Giles Farrer forecasts. Inevitably, increased availability of LNG will influence where tankers deliver their loads.

But Wood Mackenzie also predicts shorter-term volatility in the vagaries of the weather that could affect shipping movements – “a mild end to [the 2019] winter could send more LNG into Europe and drive prices down further,” he said.

The energy consultant’s predictions come at a time of concern over the availability of LNG tankers to handle the huge extra output, particularly in the spot market because most of the fleet are locked into exclusive long-term charters. In a mid-2018 study, the International Energy Agency highlighted a possible shortfall in vessels as a threat to the security of supply, particularly in more remote regions.

The dearth of available LNG carriers is reflected in rocketing spot charter rates. In November, they shot to US$190,000 a day, five times higher than in early May.

Overall though, it appears the tanker fleet will have to adjust to changes in demand in the medium-term future. “Asian LNG demand growth will not keep pace with LNG supply and Europe – northwest Europe in particular – will have to absorb the surplus, especially during the summer,” he predicted in a release this week. “But Europe needs additional imports and flexibility, given its increased reliance on maxed-out Russian and Norwegian imports.”

It is therefore likely, he added, “there would be more LNG imports than required. And that in turn would provide competition to pipe imports and put pressure on prices,” he said. However Mr Farrer does not see the level of oversupply in 2019 that others fear.

A record number of LNG projects, as measured by volume, are due to get the green light. Wood Mackenzie sees the frontrunners in the race to hit FID in 2019 as the giant US$27Bn Arctic LNG-2 project in Russia, at least one project in Mozambique and three in America. Of the latter, Wood Mackenzie identifies three major operations as top picks – Golden Pass, Calcasieu Pass and Sabine Pass Train 6.

But that is not all. There are other projects in the pipeline in America as well as in Qatar, Papua New Guinea, Australia and Nigeria, all aiming for FID in 2019.

Wood Mackenzie sees other global influences that would inevitably determine the course of the growing LNG shipping network. “A recession would bring gas/LNG demand and oil prices down, delay FIDs and push the global LNG market back a few years,” said Mr Farrer. “But there could be a worse scenario for the gas market: a major economic downturn happening in 2020 or 2021, just after 60-100 mta of LNG has taken FID. That would wipe out our forecast price recovery post-2020 and make our forecast that prices soften a little around 2025 look a lot worse.”

Chinese demand is also less certain than it was in 2018, particularly if Beijing rethinks its headlong switch from coal to gas. In the last two years demand for LNG hovered between 40-45% growth, but that could fall to about 20%. However, as Wood Mackenzie pointed out, even if that happened China would remain by far the largest customer for LNG in the global market.

https://www.lngworldshipping.com/news/view,a-tripling-of-lng-output-likely-to-hit-the-shipping-market_56372.htm
RSinvest
28.03.2019 kl 21:38 6598

Det er riktig, men i det mellomlange bildet(ut året) vil ratene i værste fall være rundt de samme som i fjor.
Denne handelsavtalen blir mest sannsynlig spikret, og vil mest sannsynlig inneholde klausuler om LNG handel. Dette er en av de letteste måtene å utligne handelsunderskuddet på. Cheniere Energy hadde jo nesten klar en avtale med CNOOC før handelskrigen startet.
Problemet tror jeg henger i tech og intellektuellt tyveri, patenter osv. Men her har jo Kina allerede endret loven. Så vi får se.

Skal og sies at i det korte bildet vil denne gå en del på handelsavtalen. At ikke flere posisjonerer seg for det syns jeg er rart.
Redigert 28.03.2019 kl 21:39 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
29.03.2019 kl 10:10 6505

Opp igjen på høyt volum. Over 50dagers igjen. Fint om den stenger over. Blir isåfall første gang i år.

RSI > 50 og etablering over ca 110-120 ser det bedre ut igjen ja. Norsk Bulls har foreløping long.
RSinvest
29.03.2019 kl 15:24 6359

HOD i dag er taket i kile-formasjonen. Blir spennende å se her nå.
RSinvest
29.03.2019 kl 18:02 6295

Fasit ble +2,96% på 24mill omsetn.som er vel over snittet. Ikke over 11,52, men greit likevel. RSI på 51 og en money flow divergens som har bygget seg opp gjennom året.(daily)
Handelsavtalen diskuteres på overtid as we speak. Håper på positive news her ila. kommende dager.
God Helg!
RSinvest
01.04.2019 kl 11:10 6115

Åpnet over og trades over 50 dagers. Knekte nettopp motstand på 113. Følg med. Kanskje vi får stengning over kilen i dag.
Bertelli
01.04.2019 kl 13:05 6062

Bra oppgang på Flex. Er det noe nytt om rater?

Det er det RSinvest som oppdaterer oss med. Må være rater som er årsaken til oppgangen i dag eller at folk nå begynner å posisjonere seg for eventuell løsning av handelskonflikt. Finner ikke så mye nyheter hverken på lng fronten eller handelskonflikten som kan være årsak til dagens oppgang. Skal bli spennende å se på USA børsene å se hvordan lng aksjene reagerer der.

Nå har vi iallefall brutt en del viktige motstander på bra volum. 115 er neste kortsiktige nivå.
Redigert 01.04.2019 kl 15:53 Du må logge inn for å svare

Fant forresten denne artikkelen. Ikke noe breaking news, men allikevel interessang. Står blant annet at det kan bli løsning allerede nå i april.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/us/politics/us-china-trade-trump.html
RSinvest
01.04.2019 kl 16:33 5945

Si det du. Tenker det var pga. det tekniske bildet jeg. Vet ikke om noe drivende vertfall.
Folk fant vertfall ut at det låg en litt skummel linje med navn MA100 på 116 ser det ut til. Ellers greit med volum og fint å komme på oppsiden av kilen istedenfor under. Blir litt samme fenomen tenker jeg. Da hadde folk solgt på frykt. Helt topp det men. Slike jeg lever av.
Uansett opp i dag da, så får vi se videre. Ganske uforutsigbar børs for tiden. Kanskje tradingrange nå frem mot ratene klatrer? Who knows.
Historisk sett snur ratene rundt april.

Det er i alle fall ingen ting som tyder på bedre rater om man ser på de amerikanske LNG-aksjene. De er fortsatt blytunge.

Gaslog ned nesten 6% og Golar 2% i dag. Det ser ut til å rakne fullstendig for LNG-shipping.

RSinvest
02.04.2019 kl 21:27 5585

Såså.
Gaslog skiller seg ut med nedgang her ser jeg. Vet ikke hvorfor, det virker til å være noe isolert med det selskapet.
Ellers er resten flatt.
RSinvest
03.04.2019 kl 08:29 5470

Fra DNB's morgenrapport:

I dag skal den kinesiske visepresidenten Liu He skal møte finansminister Steven Mnuchin og
handelsminister Robert Lighthizer. Flere nyhetsbyråer melder om at mye er på plass for en ny
handelsavtale, men det er to store hindringer som gjenstår. Den ene er knyttet til hvordan partene
kan sikre at avtalen implementeres og overholdes. Her diskuteres blant annet sanksjonsmåter og
virkemidler. Den andre hindringen er knyttet til allerede vedtatte tollsatser og om, når eller i hvilken
grad oppgang i disse skal reverseres. At toppmøtet gjennomføres ses imidlertid på som et signal om
at en avtale er innen rekkevidde.
RSinvest
03.04.2019 kl 13:22 5363

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) could reach 110 billion cubic meters, or about 80 million tonnes a year, by 2025, a senior executive from China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) said on Wednesday.

The growth will be driven by a stringent environmental policy and an accelerated restructuring of the country’s energy mix, among other factors, Ling Xiao told the LNG2019 conference in Shanghai.

China’s LNG imports last year were about 54 million tonnes. CNPC accounts for about 60 percent of China’s overall gas imports and 70 percent of domestic production, Ling said.

“LNG price will become one of the decisive factors for the amount of LNG imports,” he also said in his presentation.

And that will become even more important with the startup of a gas pipeline between China and Russia - expected later this year - that could threaten LNG imports, he said.

“LNG import prices are not competitive with pipeline gas now, and the opening of the Russia pipeline will pose further threat to LNG imports,” he said.

“We are hoping for cheaper and shorter term LNG contracts and only in that way can LNG be truly competitive.”

Deliveries of gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline were due to begin at the end of December 2019, but the project is only expected to reach full capacity in 2025.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shanghai-lng-conference-cnpc/chinas-lng-imports-could-reach-110-bln-cubic-meters-by-2025-cnpc-idUSKCN1RF0UG
Redigert 03.04.2019 kl 13:24 Du må logge inn for å svare

Skulle det vise seg at LNG ikke er konkurransedyktig med gass levert i rørledninger vil vi nok få tidenes krakk innenfor LNG-shipping. Antall skip som er bestilt er ikke akkurat lavt.

Med tanke på at gassprisen nå har krakket, så tviler jeg på om kineserne kan håpe på enda lavere priser.

https://e24.no/energi/gass/overflod-av-gass-og-mild-vinter-gir-priskollaps-i-europa/24593981

De amerikanske LNG-aksjene fortsetter fallet i dag.


Gass i rørledning vil ikke erstatte LNG, det kommer som et tillegg til LNG. Over 80% av kinas energi kommer fra kull og det er totalt 1,5 milliarder folk i kina. Nærmest uendelig behov for gass. Fraktratene til LNG skip kollapset av to grunner, kina hadde bestilt 30 laster som lå og ventet i høst og alt ble losset i desember. Da var det 30 skip som ble ledige samtidig. Videre ble 15 nybygg levert i Q1 på toppen av 40 nybygg i 2018. I februar var flere produsenter av lng nede for vedlikehold og antall laster for eksport ble redusert med 30 i februar.

I fjor snudde ratene opp i april. Blir spennende å se. Stort overskudd på LNG gjør at der blir billig og konkurransedyktig mot kull, det er bra for shipping.
I Sør-Korea har de nå redusert avgiftene på LNG med 70% fra april samt økt avgifter på kull. Kommer usa og kina i mål med handelskrigen så tror jeg vi får en kreftig rekyl opp. Vil anbefale å lese Q4 rapporten til Awlico LNG.
RSinvest
03.04.2019 kl 23:37 5172

Lave priser på gass er bra. Billig gass = billig strøm. Dette stimulerer også til økt import og forbruk. Det er veldig mye gass på markedet nå og mengdene vil bare øke. Kanskje med 4x fra USA. Fordelen med dette er at man ikke får en ny shortage. --> Pålitelig billig energikilde.
Gass fra pipeline i Kina står kun for en brøkdel av importen. Hele fordelen med nettopp "L"NG er at den er komprimert.

Hehe, i kveld er aksjene litt ned. Den skal du få. En dag ned endrer derimot ikke en trend som har bygget seg opp over flere år.
Redigert 03.04.2019 kl 23:40 Du må logge inn for å svare
delta
03.04.2019 kl 23:42 5166

Det ble nevnt i går at GasLog falt veldig mye - var vel rundt 6%. Årsaken skal være at en institusjonell investor la 2,7 mill. aksjer for salg kvelden før i en bookbuilding prosess der kursen havnet i bunnen av forhåndsindikert prisintervall. Og det ble å tynge kursen i handelen i går.
Redigert 03.04.2019 kl 23:45 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
03.04.2019 kl 23:47 5160

Ganske heavy short i den og tror jeg. Uansett.. et selskap dikterer ikke alle. Da kan det jo nevnes at DLNG er opp 4% i kveld.. Navigator opp 1% og 3 andre flate, men noen er jo ned som det skrives. GLNG og GLOG.
Triton
04.04.2019 kl 19:50 4995

Fredriksens Flex LNG søker børsnotering på NYSE
24 minutter siden · Martin Hagh Høgseth
Det John Fredriksen-kontrollerte gassfraktrederiet Flex LNG har offisielt søkt børsnotering på New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Det bekrefter selskapet i en melding torsdag kveld.
Som selskapet tidligere har meldt vil det direktenoteres på børsen i New York. Dette skjer etter at selskapet i forrige måned gjennomførte en aksjespleis for å etterleve kravet om prisnivå på aksjer i USA.
Selskapet har tidligere varslet at de sikter seg inn på notering i løpet av andre kvartal.
really
04.04.2019 kl 22:49 4898

Gassprisen i US er relativt høy nå, så selv om det bygges mye LNG nå, så er råvarekostnaden ganske høy. Det er ikke sikkert det blir lønnsomt å kjøre all denne kapasiteten med full gass om ikke markedet for LNG i brukerlandene utover året. Jeg har god tro på at det skjer, men det gjenstår å se.
RSinvest
05.04.2019 kl 13:20 4761

Ja det stemmer. Blir spennende å se. Lønnsomheten til energiselskapene må opp for å få ytterlige FID's. Heldigvis er mange prosjekter allerede i gang/vedtatt at skal påbegynnes.
RSinvest
05.04.2019 kl 16:56 4660

Flex LNG tunes in to the Spotify route to Wall Street

John Fredriksen’s Flex LNG has tuned in to the Spotify route to Wall Street, pushing ahead with a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Flex LNG has revealed it submitted a draft registration statement on Form 20-F to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as it pursues the listing of its ordinary shares on the NYSE.

The concept of listing stock without raising cash via an IPO got a huge publicity boost when music-streamer Spotify did so in April 2018. Many others have since followed suit, including a raft of shipping companies.

“With the successful $300m equity private placement in October, through the Oslo listing, Flex LNG’s entire fleet including newbuildings of 13 large fifth generation two-stroke slow speed LNG carriers, are fully capitalised. Hence, we are not seeking to raise more equity, which is one of the main reasons for doing a direct listing instead of a F-1 IPO,” Oystein Kalleklev, the company’s CEO told Splash today.

“A direct listing doesn’t require issuance of new shares, is considerably cheaper and has a higher level of deal certainty as we are not dependent on raising more equity. Being listed in the US, Flex LNG will gain access to an attractive equity market when it comes to depth, scale and liquidity which will make the company with its unique position and business strategy, an attractive investment for those seeking exposure to a transformative LNG landscape,” Kalleklev added.

The liquidity of the Flex LNG stock in the US will be affected by the lack of new shares directed towards US investors, and the company has said it is working on arrangements to ensure better trading liquidity. Once Flex LNG has been listed in the US for more than 12 months, it can file an F-3 Shelf registration which gives it the ability to raise equity in the US overnight.

Diamond S is another recent shipping company to go down the non-IPO trend. Copenhagen-listed Torm also secured a US NASDAQ listing and began trading in December 2017. South Africa’s Grindrod Shipping, which is also listed in Johannesburg, began trading on NASDAQ in June 2018, also via the non-IPO route. Angeliki Frangou’s Navios Containers initially pursued an IPO, but pulled the plug in September 2018; instead, it directly listed on NASDAQ in December. Greece’s Castor Maritime, which owns a single 15-year-old panamax bulker, began trading on NASDAQ in February.

The net result is that the number of shipping ticker symbols keeps rising on Wall Street, despite a shipping IPO drought that has dragged on since Gener8 Maritime’s debut back in June 2015.

https://splash247.com/flex-lng-tunes-in-to-the-spotify-route-to-wall-street/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=linkedin

Hva er "beste fall" kurs på FLNG, teoretisk maks?? Er det mulig at den kan gå "bananas" slik FRO gjorde i sin tid?
RSinvest
06.04.2019 kl 13:26 4447

Nå spør du vanskelig. "Beste fall" som du sier er diktert av ratene. Ratene er diketert av etterspørsel og tonnmil. Etterspørsel er diktert av energiforbruk, mens tonnmil blir mye diktert av om det kommer handelsavtale eller ikke. Så hva er taket på ratene? Tror ingen tør å svare på. Eneste vi kan si med sikkerhet er at vi er ikke på toppen i dag. En annen variabel er selvfølgelig hvor dyktig ledelsen er til å slutte skip.

Kan legge til et par ting vi deimot kan si:
1. LNG import vil være høyere i 2019. Importvekst i Kina og Sør-Korea spesielt.
2. Den milde vinteren som følge av El Nino denne vinteren gjør at det er mindre sannsynlig med samme fenomen neste gang. El Nino kommer med noen års mellomrom, men hvem kan spå været flere måneder frem i tid.
Redigert 06.04.2019 kl 13:36 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
06.04.2019 kl 16:56 4371

Litt TA for uka:
RSI opp fra 51 til over 61
Brudd over nederste fibonacci nivå. (0-0,236) 100,5,- til 115,132,-
Litt lavt volum og money flow er litt ned. Fortsatt positivt moment.
Nærmeste motstand ved 119/120. Mulige pullbacks ved dette nivået kan forventes med mindre vi blåser gjennom med litt volum.
Trendmessig er den klart ute av den fallende trenden nå.

Weekly kan vi få indikert positivt moment neste uke(MACD) om oppgangen fortsetter. Denne snudde til neg. i november i fjor.
RSinvest
08.04.2019 kl 10:00 4161

MACD weekly er pos.
RSinvest
09.04.2019 kl 09:11 3948

Trangt her plutselig..
RSinvest
09.04.2019 kl 09:50 3880

men likte ikke 200dg tydeligvis..
Volf
09.04.2019 kl 09:55 3865

FLNG:CLARKSONS PLATOU TAR OPP DEKNING MED KJØP, KURSMÅL USD 18,5
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Clarksons Platou Securities tar opp dekning på Flex LNG-aksjen med kjøpsanbefaling og et kursmål på 18,5 dollar, ifølge en oppdatering mandag.

Meglerhuset venter at LNG-shipping-markedet vil bedre seg inn i 2020, selv om det nåværende spotmarkedet er lavt og svakt grunnet mangelen på arbitrasjemuligheter, og anser timingen for en investering som passende.

"Med John Fredriksen som hovedaksjonær, som er et sterkt track record i å bygge shipping-selskaper som er foretrukket i offentlige markeder, mener vi at Flex LNG har attraktivt oppsidepotensial", skriver Clarksons Platou.

I oppdateringen pekes det også på at videre oppside kan komme fra utbytte, hvor fri kontantstrøm i et midtsyklisk marked på 75.000 dollar pr dag vil gi 2,10 dollar pr aksje, og kan derfor støtte en verdsettelse på 21 dollar pr aksje ved en 10 prosents yield-prising.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
RSinvest
09.04.2019 kl 10:53 3807

Kanskje litt tidlig å si, men se opp for shooting star. Må bekreftes før salgssignal gis.
Redigert 09.04.2019 kl 11:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
12.04.2019 kl 11:04 3630

Kanskje ratebunnen ikke er bak oss likevel..

U.S. LNG shipments on track for slowest month since October

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - U.S. shipments of liquefied natural gas are expected to fall to their lowest level in six months in April, after a leading U.S. supplier shut units for maintenance at a time when a glut of supply has driven some worldwide prices to near three-year lows.

Based on exports through April 10, the United States is on track to sell roughly 91.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas as LNG, which would be the lowest since October. That compares with an estimated record 139.8 bcfd shipped in March, according to data provider Refinitiv.

One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to supply about 5 million U.S. homes for a day.

GRAPHIC: U.S. LNG exports expected to decline in April, see tmsnrt.rs/2Icuiht

The dropoff is largely due to a decision by Cheniere Energy Inc, the leading U.S. supplier of LNG, to shut three of the five liquefaction trains, as LNG units are called, at Sabine Pass in Louisiana for planned maintenance over the past three weeks.

Demand for LNG has surged worldwide, rising by 9.8 percent in the most recent year, according to the International Gas Union (IGU).

European and Asian gas prices almost always trade at a vast premium over U.S. gas.

But that changed of late, as gas prices in several European and Asian LNG-AS markets fell by more than half this winter, cutting their premium over the U.S. fuel due to record LNG supply and a warm winter that left stockpiles much higher than usual at this time of year.

That caused some Asian buyers to shun U.S. cargoes and redirect them to Europe where shipping costs are lower. It takes about three to four weeks for a tanker to travel from the United States to Asia but only one to two weeks to get to Europe.

As Asian, European and U.S. gas prices converged, some energy traders speculated it might not make economic sense for U.S. exporters to keep sending LNG cargoes to Europe if the arbitrage or price difference between the United States and Europe closes.

Analysts at consultancy Energy Aspects, however, said it does not expect that arb to close until prices in northwestern Europe fall below US$4.15 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

Gas at the Title Transfer Facility or TTF hub in the Netherlands fell to $4.42/mmBtu last week, its lowest since September 2016. That compared with $2.64 at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana.

GRAPHIC: European, Asian and U.S. natgas prices converge, see tmsnrt.rs/2X0PAST

While Cheniere did not cite low global prices for shutting trains for maintenance, analysts said the timing made sense.

“Producers will certainly tailor their annual maintenance to reflect market realities. We believe we are already seeing this at Sabine Pass,” said Ira Joseph, global head of gas and power analytics at S&P Global Platts in New York.

Cheniere owns two of the nation’s three operating LNG export terminals - Corpus Christi in Texas and Sabine Pass.

https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1N21Q0Q7
RSinvest
18.04.2019 kl 10:19 3425

LNG transport is where the big money is.

In the booming market for supercooled natural gas, the most precious commodity is the ship.

A global quest for cleaner energy has fired up demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which produces less carbon dioxide than coal. But an abundance of supply has helped keep prices subdued, meaning the most profitable trade is in renting out vessels to transport it.

Reflecting the white-hot demand for ships, over a dozen different companies, including energy majors BP and ExxonMobil, trading house Trafigura and gas utility Centrica are already looking to charter boats for the winter, according to four shipping industry sources, months earlier than usual.

ExxonMobil, Centrica and Trafigura declined to comment. BP did not respond to requests for comment.

Energy firms are trying to avoid getting stuck without ships on charter for the winter, when cold weather typically drives up trade in LNG and, consequently, transport costs. They also want to profit off less nimble rivals.

Last winter, spot charter rates – the cost of renting a ship to transport LNG in real-time – soared to almost $200,000 per day in November compared to around $40,000 in May, squeezing those companies which had left it too late to secure vessels cheaply.

Currently, spot rates are around $40,000 per day while rates for charters covering next winter are between $70,000-$80,000 a day, two shipping industry sources said.

Energy groups including Shell, BP, China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), Cheniere and Gazprom, utilities Naturgy and Centrica and trading firms such as Gunvor and Trafigura are renting vessels for months or years and sub-letting some of them to competitors, according to half a dozen sources.

None of the firms would comment.

The market for LNG freight trade is relatively new and many companies are reluctant to talk about trading strategies, which are still being developed.

“We see LNG shipping as a commodity on its own,” said Niels Fenzl, Vice President Transportation and Terminals at Uniper, an energy firm which along with Shell, pioneered freight trade within the LNG market.

“We were one of the first companies who started to trade LNG vessels around two or three years ago and we see more companies are considering trading LNG freight now.”

JUICY MARGINS

The market for LNG has exploded in the last few years as countries, in particular China, look to reduce their reliance on coal. Technological developments have also enabled the United States to unlock cheap, abundant shale gas supplies. Starting from scratch, the United States has become the world’s fourth-largest exporter of LNG in three years.

Shell predicts that the volume of LNG traded will rise 11 percent this year to 354 million tonnes. Five years ago, it was 239 million, according to the International Group of LNG Importers.

The increased trade has, however, resulted in thinner margins between different regions, meaning less opportunity to profit on spreads between LNG prices around the globe.

Last winter, the average premium of Asian prices over Europe was around $1 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). In the winter of 2011-2012 it averaged $7.3 per mmBtu, Refinitiv Eikon data shows.

Nearly 50 LNG ships were launched last year, bringing the total fleet to around 550, but with LNG supply growing quickly and seasonal peaks, the margins on LNG shipping rates can be eye-popping.

Last year, Cheniere made deals in spring and summer for more than 10 vessels to cover its winter positions. Some ships were chartered at around $70,000 a day and rented out in winter at around $90,000 a day, an industry source said. That trade has become a sector legend and sources said others were trying to replicate it this year.

“Big portfolio players, like Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and Cheniere, are looking at keeping their ships busy all the time, optimising their positions with their own or third party cargoes to make sure they can squeeze every dollar from their charters,” a senior industry source said.

Cheniere denied to comment on its deals.

In general, traditional shipowners prefer to stick with long-term charters, which help them finance building new vessels, and let the energy firms and trading houses deal in the riskier short-term sublets.

But, given the potential money to be made, there are shipping companies focused almost entirely on servicing the LNG industry’s immediate or near-term requirements.

“The spot market is our priority now given the current rate environment as we don’t want to lock our ships in long-term charters prematurely in the recovery cycle,” said Oystein M. Kalleklev, CEO of Flex LNG, a shipping firm founded in 2006.

“We also do believe spot is becoming a much bigger part of the LNG shipping market as well as the overall LNG trade.”

HEDGING THE RISK

Chartering a ship now for next winter is currently the only option for LNG companies looking to hedge their transport costs. But it is also risky.

Low LNG prices in Asia could limit trade, leaving a firm stuck with an expensive boat and no one to sub-let it to.

The solution would be a shipping futures contract which would allow a company to lock in a price for a future charter without taking a physical vessel – something that was developed for the oil tanker market in the 2000s.

There are fledgling moves towards creating LNG shipping futures contracts. Three brokers, Affinity, Braemar and SSY, have been working with the Baltic Exchange since last year to create LNG freight indices. One index went live in March and two more are in trials.

The indices – if accepted by the industry – could be the first step towards LNG freight futures.

“A lot of our clients see LNG freight hedging as a missing piece of the puzzle. This missing piece is having control over the forward freight,” said Benjamin Gibson, derivatives broker at Affinity.

“If you have more shipping capacity then you can react to spot market cargo demand more efficiently.”

The difficulty for the index is having enough deals to base a price on, according to Gibson.

Also, many transactions are discussed privately, making it difficult to find out what price was agreed.

“In order for Uniper to consider trading on LNG freight indices we would need to see what mechanisms are offered to make the trade possible. If they could work in principle, we would look into using those,” Fenzl said.
Source: Cyprus Mail

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lng-transport-is-where-the-big-money-is/
RSinvest
23.04.2019 kl 16:58 3093

Bearish engulfing.
RSinvest
24.04.2019 kl 07:54 2903

Meget interessant, men kan neppe gjennomføres uten ny emisjon tenker jeg.. Blir uansett heftig overtegnet slik som sist.

https://shippingwatch.com/secure/carriers/Tanker/article11326506.ece
RSinvest
24.04.2019 kl 08:03 2887

China LNG imports surge 25% in March
China’s LNG imports surged 25% year on year in March to 4.06m tonnes (5.52bcm gas), customs data showed on Tuesday.

https://www.montelnews.com/en/story/china-lng-imports-surge-25-in-march/1003512
RSinvest
25.04.2019 kl 13:23 2674

LNG Rates
Spot Market (USD/Day) This week Change
East of Suez 155-165 000 cbm $25,000 $0
West of Suez 155-165 000 cbm $39,000 $0
1 Year T/C 155-160 000 cbm $74,000 $0

Helt flatt i Uke 17
RSinvest
26.04.2019 kl 09:00 2513

GasLog LNG Partnership’s Q1 profit slips

GasLog Partners, the New York-listed spinoff of LNG shipper GasLog, reported a slide in profit for the first quarter of 2019.

In its latest report, the partnership reported a 45 percent drop from $37.3 million in the first quarter of 2018 to $20.4 million on IFRS basis in the first three months of the year.

The decrease in profit in the first quarter of 2019 as compared to the same period in 2018 is mainly attributable to a $12.0 million decrease in gain from the mark-to-market valuation of derivatives.

Additionally, the partnership attributed the drop to $5.5 million decrease in revenues due to the expirations of the initial time charters of the GasLog Shanghai, the GasLog Santiago and the GasLog Sydney in May, June and September 2018, respectively.

Following the expirations of their initial charters, the GasLog Shanghai has been trading in the spot market, the GasLog Santiago began a new multi‑year charter in August 2018 and the GasLog Sydney began a new 18‑month charter in December 2018.

As a result, the average daily hire rate decreased from $72,954 for the three-month period ended March 31, 2018, to $68,840 for the three-month period ended March 31, 2019.

GasLog LNG Partnership’s CEO Andrew Orekar noted the partnership has expanded its 15 LNG carriers increasing its contracted days to 91 percent in 2019 and 74 percent in 2020.

“Looking ahead, GasLog’s recent commercial successes, including new, multi-year charters with Endesa and JERA, have increased our drop-down pipeline to 13 vessels. Despite seasonal weakness in spot LNG shipping markets due to warmer than normal winter temperatures combined with high inventory levels, we expect the spot market to strengthen as we move through 2019, supported by the expected increase in new LNG supply over the balance of the year, especially from U.S. projects,” he said.

“Our guidance reflects the positive outlook for the LNG shipping market and our recently completed accretive acquisitions, while also considering our two scheduled dry-dockings and one vessel coming off charter in late 2019,” noted Orekar.

Despite LNG demand in the first quarter of 2019 being negatively impacted by warmer than usual weather in the Northern Hemisphere winter, global LNG imports during the period totaled 88 million tonnes, compared to 79 mt in the first quarter of 2018, or 11 percent growth, according to Poten.

The partnership expects the spot shipping rates to rise from current levels, with the magnitude and duration of that recovery dependent on several factors, particularly the pace and location of demand growth and cooling and heating demand during the Northern Hemisphere summer and winter respectively.

There are also indications that the newbuild ordering may be slowing somewhat compared to newbuild ordering in 2018.

“This is a positive development which we believe is necessary to avoid an overbuilt market in 2021 and 2022, a period when LNG supply additions are forecast to slow before increasing again in 2023 and 2024,” the partnership said in its report.

https://www.lngworldnews.com/gaslog-lng-partnerships-q1-profit-slips/

Ikke lukrativt i Q1 for denne bransjen..