A tripling of LNG output likely to hit the shipping market


A predicted tripling of sanctions for global LNG projects in 2019 threatens to disrupt future shipping logistics as demand for the gas enters a more volatile phase because of a rapid increase in supply.

This is the result of a likely record year for final investment decisions (FIDs) that will ultimately deliver more than 60M tonnes of LNG per year (mta), nearly three times the 21 mta sanctioned in 2018, as the research director for Wood Mackenzie Giles Farrer forecasts. Inevitably, increased availability of LNG will influence where tankers deliver their loads.

But Wood Mackenzie also predicts shorter-term volatility in the vagaries of the weather that could affect shipping movements – “a mild end to [the 2019] winter could send more LNG into Europe and drive prices down further,” he said.

The energy consultant’s predictions come at a time of concern over the availability of LNG tankers to handle the huge extra output, particularly in the spot market because most of the fleet are locked into exclusive long-term charters. In a mid-2018 study, the International Energy Agency highlighted a possible shortfall in vessels as a threat to the security of supply, particularly in more remote regions.

The dearth of available LNG carriers is reflected in rocketing spot charter rates. In November, they shot to US$190,000 a day, five times higher than in early May.

Overall though, it appears the tanker fleet will have to adjust to changes in demand in the medium-term future. “Asian LNG demand growth will not keep pace with LNG supply and Europe – northwest Europe in particular – will have to absorb the surplus, especially during the summer,” he predicted in a release this week. “But Europe needs additional imports and flexibility, given its increased reliance on maxed-out Russian and Norwegian imports.”

It is therefore likely, he added, “there would be more LNG imports than required. And that in turn would provide competition to pipe imports and put pressure on prices,” he said. However Mr Farrer does not see the level of oversupply in 2019 that others fear.

A record number of LNG projects, as measured by volume, are due to get the green light. Wood Mackenzie sees the frontrunners in the race to hit FID in 2019 as the giant US$27Bn Arctic LNG-2 project in Russia, at least one project in Mozambique and three in America. Of the latter, Wood Mackenzie identifies three major operations as top picks – Golden Pass, Calcasieu Pass and Sabine Pass Train 6.

But that is not all. There are other projects in the pipeline in America as well as in Qatar, Papua New Guinea, Australia and Nigeria, all aiming for FID in 2019.

Wood Mackenzie sees other global influences that would inevitably determine the course of the growing LNG shipping network. “A recession would bring gas/LNG demand and oil prices down, delay FIDs and push the global LNG market back a few years,” said Mr Farrer. “But there could be a worse scenario for the gas market: a major economic downturn happening in 2020 or 2021, just after 60-100 mta of LNG has taken FID. That would wipe out our forecast price recovery post-2020 and make our forecast that prices soften a little around 2025 look a lot worse.”

Chinese demand is also less certain than it was in 2018, particularly if Beijing rethinks its headlong switch from coal to gas. In the last two years demand for LNG hovered between 40-45% growth, but that could fall to about 20%. However, as Wood Mackenzie pointed out, even if that happened China would remain by far the largest customer for LNG in the global market.

https://www.lngworldshipping.com/news/view,a-tripling-of-lng-output-likely-to-hit-the-shipping-market_56372.htm
24.01.2019 kl 22:21 14332

Ja, gode langtidskontrakter er eller ikke å forakte, selv om Spot ofte kan se mere lønnsomt ut på kort sikt.
Det beste eksemplet er "Høegh Gandria" som gikk 20 år for Pertamina mellom Indonesia og Sør Korea.
Det var mange opp og nedturer innen Shipping igjennom de 20 årene skipet gikk i den kontrakten, men Høegh Gandria var en pengemaskin hele veien.
Triton
25.01.2019 kl 16:42 14131

LNG spotratene fortsetter fallet uke 4, men fremdeles tener Flex gode penger på de ratene. https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/4375355/Research/Tankers/fw_week_4_2019.pdf
RSinvest
28.01.2019 kl 14:52 13851

Ingen god dag for JF. Gjør meg en tjeneste gutter og jenter. Selg! Takk :-P
Men seriøst, noen som vet hva som skyldes dagens fall? Ikke at jeg klager, bare nysgjerrig.
Innsiderne er i null på sine kjøp nå/straks. Kalleklev kjøpte vel 25k på 10,80 i fjor + de han nettopp kjøpte såå..

Jeg har fortsatt mine kjøpsordrer liggende. Mulig de går gjennom i dag om jeg ikke justerer de ned litt eller deler de opp. Vi får se.

RSinvest
29.01.2019 kl 12:58 13591

Australia: Port of Dampier resumes ops as Cyclone Riley passes

Operations at the Port of Dampier located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia continued operations following tropical Cyclone Riley.

Pilbara Ports Authority noted in its update on Monday that “shipping operations at the Port of Dampier have resumed in a staged manner, with all inner anchorages opened.”

Tropical Cyclone Riley is well clear of the Pilbara coast and continues to move in a West-South Westerly direction, the update said.

Two of Australia’s liquefied natural gas export facilities are located in the Port of Dampier, the Woodside-operated North West Shelf project and the Pluto LNG facility.

The port authority shows that the two facilities exported a total of 11.55 million tons of LNG from July to the end of 2018, with LNG counting up to 13.22 percent of total exports from the Port of Dampier.

Pilbara Port Authority added that there were no impacts to shipping operations at the ports of Ashburton and Port Hedland.

Chevron-led Wheatstone LNG project is located in the port of Ashburton.


https://www.lngworldnews.com/australia-port-of-dampier-resumes-ops-as-cyclone-riley-passes/

FAR100
29.01.2019 kl 13:24 13542

nå krysses 128000 akjser. noen insidere som kjøper?
MacJoJo
30.01.2019 kl 07:54 13382

Riber del Duero Knutsen laster på Pluto terminal nå, ferdig lastet kl 13:30 lokal tid, 30/1.
Cyclone Riley forsinket lasting med ca 30 timer.

Planlagt lossehavn Tianjin, Kina, LayCan 11/2 - 13/2

Neste lasting Ras Laffan, Quatar, 5/3, evt Sabine Pass, USA, 15/3
delta
30.01.2019 kl 11:31 13255

Nytt spotratefall i dag i Fearnleys Weekly Report? Forrige onsdag hadde de USD 62k/dag øst for Suez og USD 70k/dag vest for Suez. Iht. DnBs daglige oppdateringer hadde de snittrate på USD 66,75k/dag forrige onsdag og USD 60k/dag i går. Alt dette for TFDE. Etter hva jeg forstår, er premien for LNGC's ala FLNG ca. USD 10k/dag nå.

Angående utsiktene på kort sikt skrev DnB i går bl.a.:
The LNGC orderbook is front-end loaded for 2019, with 19 units scheduled for delivery in the current quarter, while 18 for the last three quarters. Some owners are likely to postpone delivery in face of the challenging market. Yet, with the influx of new tonnage, we believe freight rates will continue to be challenging the next months. The seasonal low is normally in May.

---------
Iht. Flex LNGs siste presentasjon framgår 17 nye skipsleveringer i Q1 hvorav alle er "committed". Betyr ikke det at de går direkte på kontrakter og ikke kommer i spotmarkedet? Av DnBs fremstilling ovenfor høres de kortsiktige spotprisutsiktene noe dystre ut fram til mai pga. et rush av leveringer av nye skip. Hm, noen som kan hjelpe å avklare logikken i det DnB skriver i forhold til det jeg omtaler i forhold til det som fremkommer av Flex LNGs siste presentasjon? Kanskje noen skip leveres noe tid før de skal begynne på faste kontrakter og må i spotmarkedet i en overgangsperiode?
Redigert 30.01.2019 kl 11:40 Du må logge inn for å svare
delta
30.01.2019 kl 14:11 13135

Gaslog Partners advarer i dag mot at bestillingsboomen av nye LNGC må bremses:

GASLOG PARTNERS:ROBUSTE UTSIKTER, NYBYGGSAKTIVITETEN MÅ BREMSES
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Gaslog Partners mener utsiktene for LNGC-markedet forblir robuste, med henvisning til Wood Mackenzie som anslår en årlig vekst i den globale LNG-etterspørselen på 6 prosent mellom 2018 og 2025.

Det fremkommer av selskapets seneste kvartalsrapport, onsdag.

Ifølge selskapet har normalt vær og rikelige lagernivåer i asiatiske nøkkelmarkeder resultert i økende skipstilgjengelighet og fallende spotrater, men de mener fortsatt at utsiktene for spotratene på mellomlang sikt, gjennom 2019 og 2020, er positive, gitt støttende fundamentale forhold for LNG og tilbudet og etterspørselen etter LNGCer, opplyses det.

Men spotratene kan likevel komme til å bli utsatt for perioder med sesongmessig variasjon og volatilitet i år, liknende det en så i 2018, melder Gaslog.

Videre venter selskapet at LNG-shipping-markedet går mot å bli balansert tidlig i neste tiår, og at behovet for ytterligere shippingkapasitet nå i stor grad har blitt adressert.

"Det impliserer at nybyggsordreaktiviteten i 2019 må bremse opp relativt til 2018-nivåene for å redusere risikoen for overtilbud av skip", heter det i rapporten.

Flipper
30.01.2019 kl 21:06 13008

Etter dette, er jeg ute av ALT som er LNG tonnasje:
Qatar’s energy minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, who also serves as deputy chairman of Qatar Petroleum (QP), outlined plans to order 60 new liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers.

Reuters, quoting a statement issued by South Korea’s presidential office, reported that the energy minister expects cooperation with experienced Korean shipbuilders on constructing the LNG carriers.

Qatar is the world’s largest supplier of LNG, with an annual production of 77 million tons. Last year, it announced it would further ramp up its annual capacity to 110 million tons by 2023-2024 by building four liquefaction trains.

A report in Pulse news said that in line with its major expansion plan, Qatar has been taking action to bolster its fleet of LNG carriers.

QP is expected to order 60 LNG carriers with a capacity of 210,000-266,000 cubic meters, which are 30 percent larger than regular LNG tankers, it said. Each costs more than $200 million, meaning the deal could be worth at least $12 billion.

South Korean shipyard are bracing for a jump in LNG shipbuilding contracts from Qatar, after the Minister's statement. According to South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME), most of the LNG carriers owned by Qatar were built by Korea’s top three shipbuilders.

DSME CEO Sung Leep Jung said that he hoped South Korean would be considered a primary option for building new LNG carriers for Qatar.

The officials of the state-owned oil company QP recently visited Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), DSME and Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI) to check their capacities to build super-sized LNG carriers, reported Business Korea.

Anticipation for a big order is growing among the Korean shipbuilders as they have already won massive orders for LNG carriers from Qatar. They swept the 45 LNG carriers ordered by Qatar from 2004 to 2007. Back then, DSME took 19, Samsung Heavy Industries 18 and Hyundai Heavy Industries eight.

The Korean big three shipbuilders brought home 66 orders out of 70 LNG carriers last year.

https://www.marinelink.com/amp/news/qatar-mulls-buying-new-lng-carriers-462238
RSinvest
30.01.2019 kl 21:44 12952

LNG shipping er som alle andre kan det virke som. Ikke sjokkerende dette.
Dette skaper problemer på sikt. Heldigvis tar det lang tid å bygge LNGC'er. Og 210,000-266,000 m3 skip.. Kan ikke si jeg har hørt om det tidligere.
Eneste håp utover 2023 er vel om Kina booster på med LNG som bare f. Men det får vi nå se på.
Enn så lenge får vi ha dette i bakhodet. Frem til dess er det mange penger å tjene.
Positivt å se at så mange har fått øyne opp for markedet. Får se på det slik.

Underkapasitet->høye rater->investeringer->balanse->overkapasitet->lave rater->nedtur/konkurs->konsolidering->høyere rater osv...
Dette er vel den klassiske syklusen. Ingen tror vel at ATH rater varer evig. Som du sier; man får se på dette som en bekreftelse på at LNG totalvolumet skal opp som følge av at LNG øker sin relative posisjon i energimixen.

Jeg tenker at LNG-selskaper som er lønnsomme er relativt gode kjøp på en olje-skadet oslo børs og er happy med å utvikle en LNG-portefølje på disse nivåene.

Hvis kvaliteten på HO-Forumet er en indikasjon på investor-kvalitet så ligger LNG-aksjene meget godt an sammenliknet med andre aksjer i porteføljen min (Archer, DOF, NEL)
Redigert 30.01.2019 kl 22:04 Du må logge inn for å svare

Stifel Comments today on the GLOP earnings release interesting:

• LNG rates have given some back with TFDE rates at $65,000/day, down from the peak of
$200,000/day in December. While this is down, 1-year time charters are still at $85,000/day,
which is up 51% yoy. We expect rates to bottom at $50,000 before recovering in 3Q19.
• With the continued increase in liquefaction capacity, we believe that LNG prices will be more
subdued in 2019, compared to the peaks of $13/mmbtu seen in 2018. This is shrinking the
Asian arb and reducing ton-miles for LNG shipping near-term.
• With some concern over ship ordering being overdone by 2020, we prefer companies with
long term contracts in place.



Teekay LNG må være bra kjøp. 12.8Dollar aksjen. Utbytte økes fra 0.14 til 0.19 dollar pr kvartal fra Q19.
Etablert tilbakekjøpprogram på 100musd. Nybyggingsprogrammet er ferdig i 2019.
Intjeningen vil øke når alle skipene kommer i drift. Tidligere betalte TGP 0.76dollar pr kvartal i utbytte.
De har ikke hatt emisjon men betalt nybygg med løpene intjening.....
RSinvest
01.02.2019 kl 06:11 6575

Det jeg siktet til i et tidligere innlegg. Den eskalerende interessen for LNG-shipping viser at flere og flere ser store muligheter innenfor segmentet.
Blir artig å se. Uansett flere år til de klarer å drepe markedet om det skulle bli utfallet.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/gas/1687995/qatars-usd-11bn-newbuild-plans-show-scale-of-lng-ambitions
vicktor
01.02.2019 kl 10:36 6449

Jeg har benyttet kursfallet til å kjøpe flere aksjer i Flex LNG, dette må bli veldig bra.
Selv om Qatar bygger sine egne båter, så vil disse båtene til Fredriksen, som bruker mye mindre drivstoff,
konkurrere ut eldre båter.
RSinvest
01.02.2019 kl 11:11 6419

Samme her. Har måtte sitte på hendene mine og vært tålmodig som bare det, men har lønnet seg. Kjøpt litt mer nå på lave 11'ere. Kjøper sakte men sikkert nedover slik jeg gjorde før Q3. Det ble slam dunk!
Om dette er bunnen for denne gang..? Det får vi se. Er fortsatt langt fra fullastet, men vil sitte inne med litt i forkant av Q4 just in case. Kalleklev sitter dypere i det enn meg og med høyere snitt. Samme gjør nesten samtlige av innsiderne. Er vel kun Paulli som er i + per nå.
Om man ser på det tekniske vil jeg først og fremst vil jeg se om den bryter 11,15 i dag. Trender nedover, men så er vi offseason.
Blir som å kjøpe cabriolet på vinterstid dette. Man må vente til sommeren for å få full utnyttelse, men man kan gjøre en bra deal.

Happy Trading og God Helg folkens!
RSinvest
01.02.2019 kl 11:14 6463

Mulig Bullish Harami Cross i dag ser jeg nå. Må bekreftes, så ikke kast sparepengene etter det med en gang og skyld på meg. Uansett, mulig bunn foreløpig.
Empire
01.02.2019 kl 13:34 6369

Bra tråd :)

Kjøper 11.20 og håper som menigheten at vi snart når en bunn for ratefallet

Target 14, 70 før sommeren, med nye muligheter når sommervikarene til DNB er tilbake i juli :)
Redigert 01.02.2019 kl 13:34 Du må logge inn for å svare
Triton
01.02.2019 kl 16:52 6259

Rater uke 5, litt ned fra uke 4 men fremdeles rater som Flex tener penger på. https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/4375355/Research/Tankers/fw_week_5_2019.pdf
RSinvest
01.02.2019 kl 17:43 6220

Og skipsverdiene ligger på 188musd kontra 184,5 på samme tid i fjor.
Skal nevnes at de 7 nye som Flex har bestillt ble kjøpt til 180musd om jeg ikke husker feil. Så 8mill usd i pluss per skip før de har seilt en meter.
Redigert 01.02.2019 kl 17:46 Du må logge inn for å svare
vicktor
01.02.2019 kl 18:32 6171

Sør-Korea kutter LNG-skatten med 74 %, samtidig som skatten på termisk kull økes med 27 %, fra april måned.
Det står å lese på FLNG sine sider hos Nordnet
RSinvest
01.02.2019 kl 21:36 6080

Enormt bra.

Legger ved linken her:
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/020119-south-korea-to-cut-lng-taxes-by-74-in-april-raise-thermal-coal-tax-by-27

Litt om Sør Koreas LNG import i 2018 uten disse kuttene:

Korea’s imports of liquefied natural gas reached an all-time high in 2018 amid a spike in purchases from the United States, industry data showed on Jan. 28.

The country’s LNG imports totaled 44.04 million tons last year, up 17.3 percent from the prior year and a new record high, according to the data from industry sources and the Korea International Trade Association
Qatar was Korea’s largest LNG import source, accounting for 32.4 percent of the total. Australia came next with 17.9 percent, followed by the US with 10.6 percent and Oman with 9.7 percent.

In particular, LNG imports from America more than doubled in 2018 from a year earlier as Korea sharply expanded shale gas purchases.

LNG imports from the US came to 4.66 million tons last year, up a whopping 138 percent from the previous year.

According to the US Energy Information Agency, Korea brought in 4.54 million tons of LNG from America in the first 10 months of last year, accounting for 23.6 percent of its exports at 19.24 million tons.

Korea became the largest LNG importer from the US in 2018, outstripping Mexico. In 2017, Korea was the second-largest LNG importer from America, trailing Mexico.

http://www.theinvestor.co.kr/view.php?ud=20190128000155
RSinvest
06.02.2019 kl 08:01 5709

ExxonMobil, Qatar Petroleum makes FID to Proceed with Golden Pass LNG Export Project

IRVING, Texas—-ExxonMobil and partner Qatar Petroleum said that they have made a final investment decision to proceed with development of the Golden Pass LNG export project located in Sabine Pass, Texas. Construction will begin in the first quarter of 2019 and the facility is expected to start up in 2024.

“Golden Pass will provide an increased, reliable, long-term supply of liquefied natural gas to global gas markets, stimulate local growth and create thousands of jobs,” said Darren Woods, chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM). “The extensive experience of ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum provides the expertise, resources and financial strength needed to construct and operate an integrated liquefaction and export facility in the United States.”

The $10+ billion liquefaction project will have capacity to produce around 16 million tons of LNG per year. It is expected to create about 9,000 jobs over the five-year construction period and more than 200 permanent jobs during operations. Preliminary estimates by an independent study indicate the project could generate up to $31 billion in U.S. economic gains and more than $4.6 billion in direct federal, state and local tax revenues over the life of the project.

Golden Pass is part of ExxonMobil’s plans to invest more than $50 billion over the next five years to build and expand manufacturing facilities in the U.S. This includes the Growing the Gulf initiative, which will create about 45,000 jobs in America.

Working interests in the Golden Pass LNG export project are 70 percent Qatar Petroleum and 30 percent ExxonMobil. This project builds upon the successful international relationship between ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum, with Qatar Petroleum joining ExxonMobil in exploration and development activities in Argentina, Brazil and Mozambique.

http://oilandgasrepublic.com/exxonmobil-qatar-petroleum-makes-fid-to-proceed-with-golden-pass-lng-export-project/
Redigert 06.02.2019 kl 08:01 Du må logge inn for å svare
delta
06.02.2019 kl 23:29 5406

Spotratene glir merkbart nedover for hver uke iht. Fearnleys Weekly Report mens TC holder ser ganske bra, 1 års TC nå på USD 84k/dag for TFDE.
Iht. Fearnley i dag spot Øst av Suez USD 52,5k/dag og vest av Suez USD 58k/dag for TFDE ned fra forrige onsdags hhv. USD 58k/dag og USD 65k/dag. Tillagt premie for FLNGs skip ligger vel spotratenivået nå marginalt under det GasLog har inngått langsiktige kontrakter på for skip de har i ordre og som noen synes er lave ratenivåer for lange kontrakter (anslagsvis USD 68k/dag).

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fw_week_6_2019b.pdf

Redigert 06.02.2019 kl 23:37 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
07.02.2019 kl 23:14 5022

GLOBAL LNG-Asian price falls to 17-month low as trade moves west

By Ekaterina Kravtsova

LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Asian spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) dipped to a 17-month low on subdued trading activity in Asia-Pacific due to a week-long Chinese New Year holiday and a number of new supply offers on the market.

Spot prices for March delivery to northeast Asia are estimated at around $6.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down $0.20/mmBtu from the previous week. This is the lowest level since September 2017, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

Spreads between global LNG delivery prices remain tight, with expectations of a further rise in arrivals into Europe.

“Some people keep optimising (LNG volumes in the Far East), but fresh demand remains low,” an LNG trader said.

Significant demand came from India however.

Gujarat State Petroleum Corp (GSPC) is looking to buy 12 cargoes for delivery between April 2019 and March 2020 open until Feb. 19.

Pakistan LNG opened this week a tender for six cargoes for delivery in May and June open until March 11.

Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) (IPO-KUWP.KW) closed on Tuesday a tender for delivery on Feb. 26-27.. The tender could be awarded as low as $6.01-$6.50/mmBtu, one trade source said.

On the supply side, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) closed on Thursday a tender for a cargo for loading at its Das Island plant on March 10-12.

Angola LNG is offering until Feb. 12 a cargo from the Soyo plant for delivery between late February and mid-March depending on the destination.

In Europe, PetroChina International (London) offered at least two cargoes from its Yamal equity offtake for delivery in northwest Europe on March 3-5 and March 28-29, with the sale expected to close next week.

Yamal volumes into Europe have been above those from the United States this month so far, a change in a trend from last month. Britain expects to receive three LNG cargoes from Yamal until mid-February, two of which are sold by Russian producer Novatek to Swiss-based trader Vitol, sources said.

Gas prices in Europe edged down.

The best bid this week for delivery of LNG into northwest Europe was at a $0.18/mmBtu discount to the Dutch front-month gas price, a trader said.

In Spain, prices were even lower, at around $0.20-0.25/mmBtu below the Dutch price, the source said.

“Such a discount to (the Dutch price) is a sign of a very weak market,” the trader said.

LNG send-outs in Iberia jumped this week, Refinitiv Eikon data showed, with little space left in Spanish terminals for fresh arrivals.

The number of cargoes from the United States has been so far much lower this month than in January, with five cargoes expected to reach Europe between Feb. 6 and Feb. 21. In January, 19 U.S. cargoes were delivered to Europe.

Loadings from Gulf of Mexico plants in the U.S. have been delayed by heavy fog. Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass Train 5 are still in a commissioning phase. When both issues are resolved, U.S. exports to Europe are likely to rise, which is expected in late February and March, an industry source said. (Reporting by Ekaterina Kravtsova Editing by Alexandra Hudson)

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-lng-asian-price-falls-to-17-month/global-lng-asian-price-falls-to-17-month-low-as-trade-moves-west-idUSL5N2028DY
RSinvest
08.02.2019 kl 09:15 4832

Vil dette trigge videre økning i skibsverdiene?

Korea’s Mega-Merger of Shipyards Set to Dominate Global Shipbuilding
in Shipbuilding News 08/02/2019


Shipyards in South Korea are trying to forge a new shape for the industrial sector that underpins global shipping.

The merger of Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. being engineered in Seoul promises to create a behemoth controlling 20% of the global market for new ships, and an even bigger share of the market for the liquefied natural gas carriers that are reconfiguring global energy markets.

The combination also would leave rival yards in China and Japan struggling to compete, raising questions about those countries’ commitment to supporting their own ship builders.

Shipbuilding is a vital part of the economies of Asian countries such as South Korea and China, employing hundreds of thousands of people. Seoul and Beijing repeatedly bailed out or subsidized money-losing shipyards during a long slump in maritime trade as vessel operators trimmed their fleets and new orders plummeted.

Building Dominance
A combined Hyundai Heavy and Daewoo Shipbuilding entity would create the world’s biggest shipyard.

But the industry is now regaining its bearings, boosted by big trends in energy markets and new regulations. Stricter marine pollution rules that take effect next year, as well as rising demand for advanced ships such as LNG carriers, have triggered a wave of new orders to replace aging fleets.

The merged Korean superyard may benefit the most. Between them, HHI and DSME have 52% of existing orders for LNG carriers, and they control a fifth of the broader ship building market, according to marine data provider VesselsValue.

The total combined Korean order-book now is worth $31.4 billion, compared with $15.2 billion for China’s top two shipyards—China State Shipbuilding Corp. and China Shipbuilding Industry Corp.—which also plan to merge.

Japan’s two biggest facilities, Imabari Shipbuilding Co. and Oshima Shipbuilding Co., are separate companies with a combined order-book of $12.6 billion.

“Our efforts over the past five years was to keep HHI and DSME from sinking,” said a senior Korean official involved in the merger. “The target now is to create a yard facility that will dominate ship orders, especially high-margin vessels like LNG carriers, for years to come.”

LNG ships cost on average $175 million apiece and the profit margin for the companies that build them is almost double that of other vessels, according to shipbuilding executives. Bulk carriers typically cost around $25 million each.

Korean yards are also the favorites to win one of the biggest ship orders ever—a deal for some 60 LNG carriers set to be signed by Qatar to ship gas from 2023. The order is estimated to be worth more than $10 billion, according to shipping services provider Clarkson PLC.

The new ships will roughly double Qatar’s existing fleet, which was mostly built by Korean yards. Some of the ships will be used to move gas from the Golden Pass LNG facility in Sabine, Texas, which is 70% owned by Qatar Petroleum, 17.6% by Exxon Mobil and 12.4% by ConocoPhillips .

“If you want LNG ships, you go to DSME or HHI,” said a Greek shipowner whose company operates around two dozen such vessels. “LNG will become a pivotal fuel over the next decade and the Korean yards will be the biggest beneficiaries.”

Rising demand from countries including Japan, China, Korea and India has tripled seaborne LNG cargoes since 2000 to 308 million metric tons last year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Capacity for another 170 million metric tons is due to be added by 2030, if planned projects go onstream.

Big shipowners like those in Greece are so confident of future demand that they are buying LNG carriers speculatively, rather than on the back of long-term contracts with energy majors as they usually would.

“You need at least four ships to have a critical mass, so it’s a big gamble,” said Basil Karatzas of New-York-based Karatzas Marine Advisors and Co. “Years ago the Greeks put their bets on crude tankers and it paid off. Now they are doing the same with LNG ships, and history shows that they are pretty good in reading the market.”

The windfall for the merged HHI-DSME would be difficult for competitors to match. The $2 billion all-share deal, which is expected to be completed by the end of this year, comes with $2.25 billion in state liquidity support on top of a $2.6 billion bailout for DSME in 2017.

Chinese shipping officials hate the deal, but won’t be able to stop it, shipping regulation experts say. Beijing will now be pressed to complete the approved merger between CSSC and CSIC, but it will likely take time to see it through. The two companies have complicated ownership structures, and pressure to preserve jobs as China’s economy slows could make it harder for the combined company to cut costs.

“The shipbuilding consolidation is part of a wider plan to restructure strategic sectors like shipping, telecoms, airlines and energy,” said a senior executive at a state-run Chinese shipping and logistics business. “We are inching ahead, but at a snail’s pace.”

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/koreas-mega-merger-of-shipyards-set-to-dominate-global-shipbuilding/
Redigert 08.02.2019 kl 15:52 Du må logge inn for å svare
really
08.02.2019 kl 10:01 4774

En sak jeg har alt for liten kunnskap om i LNG markedet er lagringskapasitet. Markedsstørrelsen er kjent og i rask utvikling, men hvor store lagre kan de ha og hvor stor % av årsforbruket kan de lagre per marked? Og hvor stor lagringskapasitet finnes det i markedet i forhold til skipningskapasiteten?

Min arbeidshypotese har vært at markedet har vært ekstremt industrielt med stabile fraktrater og relativt lite bufferlagring, Men med et voksende spotmarked blir det behov for mer lagringskapasitet for å jevne ut svingningene i spotratene.

Er det noen som kjenner til gode rapporter eller artikler om emnet?
Empire
08.02.2019 kl 10:25 4731

Her er en blekke som er ett år gammel (tall fra 2017) som tar for seg det meste innen LNG frem mot 2023, hvis jeg ikke husker helt feil. Sikkert flere blekker rundt forbi som kanskje er mer oppdatert?

https://www.igu.org/sites/default/files/node-document-field_file/IGU_LNG_2018_0.pdf
Redigert 08.02.2019 kl 10:27 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
10.02.2019 kl 11:47 4263

Fant dette om lagringskapasitet.

A similar mismatch between demand and the available infrastructure is seen on the storage front. With a volume of 11 billion cubic metres, China’s storage covers only 5% of its total consumption. That compares to an average of 10% - 12% globally, and 26% in the EU 27 plus Ukraine. Insufficient storage capacity has constrained China’s ability to import more gas via pipeline throughout the year for use in the winter months.

https://knect365.com/energy/article/293e5638-6403-4ba9-a401-cb9f8a31e5dc/the-forces-shaping-chinese-lng-demand
really
10.02.2019 kl 13:15 4214

Takk for gode linker!

De bekrefter min teori om at China ikke har lagringskapasitet til å utnytte lavere fraktrater når LNG etterspørselen ble lavere enn ventet i vinter. Og det betyr også at ratene virkelig kan ta av om etterspørselen blir større enn ventet.
RSinvest
11.02.2019 kl 16:36 3905

Etter 3 bullish bunnformasjoner på rad ble endelig ett av de bekreftet. Stengte tilogmed HOD.
Blir spennende om den klarer å bryte ut av den fallende trendkanalen.
RSinvest
11.02.2019 kl 21:03 3744

Det bygges.

China mining group plans riverside LNG terminal -media

SINGAPORE, Feb 11 (Reuters) -

* Chinese coal miner Huainan Mining Group has won provincial approval to build a terminal along the Yangtze river to receive liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to a news report on a website affiliated with the Ministry of Transport published on Jan. 30.

* The terminal, which the company claims is the first one to be built along the Yangtze, will have a handling capacity of 2 million tonnes annually and will cost about 3 billion yuan ($442.71 million) to build, according to the report.

* The terminal, to be located at the port of Sanshan in the inland city of Wuhu in Anhui province, is slated for completion in 2022, the report said.

* Huainan Mining is already partnering with state-run China National Offshore Oil Corp for a planned LNG receiving terminal at the coastal port of Yancheng in Jiangsu province. The 3 million tonne-per-year terminal is expected to be operational by the end of 2020

https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3N20617K
RSinvest
14.02.2019 kl 07:31 3240

UPDATE 1-China's Jan crude oil imports rise from a year ago, gas imports at record

* Jan crude imports off peak but holds above 10 mln bpd

* Gas imports hit record as importers anticipated firmer demand

* Refined fuel exports up 31.6 pct y/y

By Chen Aizhu

SINGAPORE, Feb 14 (Reuters) - China’s crude oil imports in January rose 4.8 percent from a year earlier, customs data showed on Thursday, with refineries building up their stockpiles ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays that fell in early February.

Natural gas imports into the world’s biggest importer of the fuel rose to a monthly record of 9.81 million tonnes, exceeding the previous peak in December of 9.23 million tonnes, as state-run importers hiked volumes in anticipation of increasing heating demand.

China, the world’s biggest crude oil importer, took in 42.6 million tonnes of oil in January, according to the data released by the General Administration of Chinese Customs. That works out to 10.03 million barrels per day (bpd), the third straight month that imports have exceeded the 10 million bpd mark.

January imports are down from the record on a daily basis of 10.43 million bpd in November as independent processors last month reduced procurements because of smaller quota allotments for 2019.

But purchases by new private refiners Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical for test operations kept import levels elevated.

Northeast China-based Hengli Petrochemical aims to have all the units at its 400,000-bpd plant operating at full capacity by the end of March.

Gas imports, including piped gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped in tankers, rose to 9.81 million tonnes last month, up 26.2 percent from January 2018.

Even with high inventories amid a warmer-than-usual winter, China’s LNG imports were expected to hit a record in January as state energy firms pre-arranged shipments in anticipation of stronger demand.

Customs data also showed China’s refined fuel exports rose 31.6 percent in January from the same month last year to 5.42 million tonnes.

State refineries, equipped with higher export quotas, are shipping out fuel in greater volumes and reaching more distant markets.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iea-oil/global-oil-supply-to-swamp-demand-in-2019-despite-output-cuts-iea-idUSKCN1Q20WK
Ka'l
14.02.2019 kl 09:50 3152

"Nu går alt så meget bedre"
Da kan vi vel se fram til KURSDOBLING.
K
RSinvest
14.02.2019 kl 10:14 3125

Njaa.
Er ikke helt trygg på det tekniske bildet. Litt bearish tendenser i chartet. Vi får se hvor den ender dagen.
Varsom
14.02.2019 kl 11:00 3096

Ingen vits i å forhastet seg med kjøp her enda. Begynner å kjøpe igjen på lav kr. 10,-
RSinvest
14.02.2019 kl 11:17 3085

Om den kommer så lavt.. Fortjener vel strengt tatt ikke det. Skulle vært synsk.
Varsom
14.02.2019 kl 11:21 3077

Tenker den skal ned å teste bunnen en gang til, minst... Ratene kommer nok til å ligge nokså flate ut våren vil jeg tro og det er mange utolmodige sjeler her inne.