WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS

Volf
WWL 09.11.2017 kl 09:17 2096

WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS Consensus is catching up A similar share price reaction has only been seen twice post the Glovis spin-off and the merger with Wallenius, showing the gap between earnings capacity at cycle lows and market expectations. We are still above consensus EBITDA for 2018e, although at half that of post Q2. We find WWL attractive as merger synergies help bridge the gap ahead of a slow improvement in auto shipping and gradual recovery in mining shipments, driven by higher metal prices and an age-related replacement cycle. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and have raised our target price to NOK67 (60).
Estimates up on lower costs. We have raised our 2017–2019e EBITDA by an average of 5% per year and 2017–2019e net profit by 14% per year on average following a strong Q3. As volumes and rates broadly developed as we had expected in Ocean, it is lower costs that have primarily triggered our positive estimate revisions as a result of an earlier than expected impact from synergies combined with more efficient operations. Consensus is gradually closing the gap to our forecasts, as while we were 15% above consensus on 2018e EBITDA post Q2 results in August, we are now only 6% above. We are 7% above consensus on Q4 2017e, while we are somewhat more cautious on 2019e, being 5% below consensus. We believe our estimates are still cautiously optimistic. We forecast WWL’s EBITDA to rise to USD794m by 2018e, up USD32m from run-rate-adjusted Q2–Q3 2017e. Thus in our view our forecasts including improved synergies and market recovery are only cautiously optimistic. Just 50% of the targeted USD100m in synergies were reflected in the results as of Q3 2017. For 2018e EBITDA, we forecast Ocean at USD694m and Landbased at USD116m, offset by a USD16m charge from Holding. Reiterate BUY recommendation, target price raised to NOK67 (NOK60), based on a 2018e EV/EBITDA of 8.0x, implying a P/E of 12x, up from the current 9.7x (our estimate). We forecast a 2018e DPS of USD0.29, resulting in a yield of ~4.7%.
Torine
09.11.2017 kl 13:17 2084


Artikkel av: Are Strandli - Hegnar
9. november 2017 - 10:35
Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics ASA la onsdag frem sterke tall for tredje kvartal.

Fasiten viste et resultat etter skatt på 55 millioner dollar i kvartalet, mot 25 millioner dollar i samme periode året før.
Det fikk meglerhuset Pareto Securities til å ta frem lovordene.
- Svært positiv rapport, med økt selvtillit på 2019-estimatene gjør dette logistikkgiganten attraktivt priset, skrev meglerhuset i et notat, gjengitt av nyhetsbyrået TDN Finans. Ifølge nyhetsbyrået beholder meglerhuset kjøpsanbefalingen på rederiet, samt øker kursmålet betydelig. Før rapporten hadde meglerhuset et kursmål på 59 kroner. Det nye er 70 kroner, noe som tilsvarer en potensiell oppside på 24 prosent fra onsdagens sluttkurs.
Torsdag slenger flere meglerhus seg på med høyere kursmål.
Både ABG Sundal Collier, Nordea Markets og SEB oppjusterer kursmålene sine, ifølge ferske oppdateringer.
ABG Sundal Collier øker kursmålet sitt til 65 kroner fra tidligere 55 kroner, ifølge TDN Finans.
SEB hadde et høyt kursmål fra før, men velger likevel å oppjustere dette med to kroner til 70 kroner.
Det mest positive meglerhuset er imidlertid Nordea Markets som nå mener at WWL-aksjen skal opp i 75 kroner, mot tidligere 62 kroner.