REC - Solar Tariff inn til USA - beslutning tas innen 2 uker
Om knappe 2 uker så blir import tariffen på solpaneler inn til USA avgjort.
Vil en avgjørelse om en betydelig import tariff på solpaneler kunne få konsekvenser for REC som polysilocon produsent gjennom at Silicon baserte solpaneler blir priset ut på tross av at de er både mer effektive og mer hardføre enn andre typer solpaneler?
Kan en slik (misforstått) usikkerhet ha preget handelen i dag?
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Jan 17, 2018
First Solar's Stock Has the Most to Lose in the Solar Tariff Decision
The Trump Administration will decide in the next two weeks whether or not to implement tariffs on solar imports into the U.S. If it does, panels from nearly every manufacturer except First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) will see their effective selling price go up in the U.S. in 2018.
First Solar will likely escape tariffs because its thin-film panels weren't included in the trade case and it already has 600 MW of manufacturing capacity in the U.S. But the market has been pushing First Solar's stock higher on the assumption that First Solar will be the biggest winner from the tariff decision, which is why it has the most to lose if tariffs are low or include major loopholes.
The best case scenario is already priced in
I think it's important to point out that First Solar's operational performance in 2017 and more than 6.7 GW of bookings are what have caused the stock to more than double in the past year. But these could be one-time events. The company benefited from strong demand for projects it was selling, resulting in about $150 million in extra value that management wasn't counting on coming into the year. But the bigger windfall was the threat of solar tariffs from Suniva's Section 201 trade case.
Developers in the U.S. were faced with the threat of sharply higher solar panel costs in 2018 if tariffs are implemented, which would pose a major risk to their projects. A final decision is due by the end of the month. Many decided to lock up solar panels on long-term contracts with First Solar, the one company that was excluded from the case because it makes thin-film solar panels. That unique position is why First Solar has 7.7 GW of solar panel sales contracted through 2020, about three years of production at its current pace, likely at an above market price.
What investors need to keep in mind is that 2017 was a best-case scenario for First Solar. Developers were willing to pay a premium for tariff-free solar panels just because of the threat of tariffs. Within a few weeks we'll know what tariffs will look like, and if they aren't as high as expected, or include major loopholes, First Solar may not see that windfall of bookings continue.
Thin-film technology could be a problem
The windfall is important because it kept First Solar's competitive position strong, despite market forces working against the company. First Solar has always had lower efficiency than competing silicon-based solar panels, but it's been able to compete because it had lower costs and thin-film panels offered better production in harsh conditions. Those advantages may be disappearing.
Current Series 6 solar modules are 17% efficient in capturing the sun's energy, slightly higher than traditional multi-crystalline solar panels. But silicon manufacturers are rapidly upgrading to mono-crystalline and mono-PERC solar cells, which are even more efficient than First Solar's 17%.
For example, SunPower's (NASDAQ: SPWR) P-Series solar panels are now up to 19.6% efficient, and that's from a mono-crystalline cell construction. When mono-PERC cells begin production in P-Series, efficiency could be over 21%.
This is important both because it means higher efficiency and because PERC construction reduces the performance advantage thin-film has in harsh environments. And with tens of gigawatts of mono-PERC construction expected to come online by the end of the decade, it's unlikely thin-film will be able to maintain a cost advantage.
A lot riding on solar tariffs
After using the threat of solar tariffs brilliantly in 2017, First Solar could use the help tariffs would provide in 2018. The company is expanding production to 5.7 GW by the end of the decade, and if it doesn't have some protection from silicon-based manufacturers it could be in a weaker competitive position than it was last year. For better or worse, First Solar has a lot riding on President Trump's tariff decision.
http://billingsgazette.com/business/investment/markets-and-stocks/first-solar-s-stock-has-the-most-to-lose-in/article_9c0dc754-affe-59be-97bc-d53d90ad8282.html
Vil en avgjørelse om en betydelig import tariff på solpaneler kunne få konsekvenser for REC som polysilocon produsent gjennom at Silicon baserte solpaneler blir priset ut på tross av at de er både mer effektive og mer hardføre enn andre typer solpaneler?
Kan en slik (misforstått) usikkerhet ha preget handelen i dag?
-----------------
Jan 17, 2018
First Solar's Stock Has the Most to Lose in the Solar Tariff Decision
The Trump Administration will decide in the next two weeks whether or not to implement tariffs on solar imports into the U.S. If it does, panels from nearly every manufacturer except First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) will see their effective selling price go up in the U.S. in 2018.
First Solar will likely escape tariffs because its thin-film panels weren't included in the trade case and it already has 600 MW of manufacturing capacity in the U.S. But the market has been pushing First Solar's stock higher on the assumption that First Solar will be the biggest winner from the tariff decision, which is why it has the most to lose if tariffs are low or include major loopholes.
The best case scenario is already priced in
I think it's important to point out that First Solar's operational performance in 2017 and more than 6.7 GW of bookings are what have caused the stock to more than double in the past year. But these could be one-time events. The company benefited from strong demand for projects it was selling, resulting in about $150 million in extra value that management wasn't counting on coming into the year. But the bigger windfall was the threat of solar tariffs from Suniva's Section 201 trade case.
Developers in the U.S. were faced with the threat of sharply higher solar panel costs in 2018 if tariffs are implemented, which would pose a major risk to their projects. A final decision is due by the end of the month. Many decided to lock up solar panels on long-term contracts with First Solar, the one company that was excluded from the case because it makes thin-film solar panels. That unique position is why First Solar has 7.7 GW of solar panel sales contracted through 2020, about three years of production at its current pace, likely at an above market price.
What investors need to keep in mind is that 2017 was a best-case scenario for First Solar. Developers were willing to pay a premium for tariff-free solar panels just because of the threat of tariffs. Within a few weeks we'll know what tariffs will look like, and if they aren't as high as expected, or include major loopholes, First Solar may not see that windfall of bookings continue.
Thin-film technology could be a problem
The windfall is important because it kept First Solar's competitive position strong, despite market forces working against the company. First Solar has always had lower efficiency than competing silicon-based solar panels, but it's been able to compete because it had lower costs and thin-film panels offered better production in harsh conditions. Those advantages may be disappearing.
Current Series 6 solar modules are 17% efficient in capturing the sun's energy, slightly higher than traditional multi-crystalline solar panels. But silicon manufacturers are rapidly upgrading to mono-crystalline and mono-PERC solar cells, which are even more efficient than First Solar's 17%.
For example, SunPower's (NASDAQ: SPWR) P-Series solar panels are now up to 19.6% efficient, and that's from a mono-crystalline cell construction. When mono-PERC cells begin production in P-Series, efficiency could be over 21%.
This is important both because it means higher efficiency and because PERC construction reduces the performance advantage thin-film has in harsh environments. And with tens of gigawatts of mono-PERC construction expected to come online by the end of the decade, it's unlikely thin-film will be able to maintain a cost advantage.
A lot riding on solar tariffs
After using the threat of solar tariffs brilliantly in 2017, First Solar could use the help tariffs would provide in 2018. The company is expanding production to 5.7 GW by the end of the decade, and if it doesn't have some protection from silicon-based manufacturers it could be in a weaker competitive position than it was last year. For better or worse, First Solar has a lot riding on President Trump's tariff decision.
http://billingsgazette.com/business/investment/markets-and-stocks/first-solar-s-stock-has-the-most-to-lose-in/article_9c0dc754-affe-59be-97bc-d53d90ad8282.html
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 02:00
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rischioso - det kan hende det. Kan jo bli en game changer ref solpaneler du skriver om - hvis det påvirker rec kursen oppe eller ned. Kansje JUM eller TT kommer med en kommentar snart. Fasten seatsbelts
elhumme
17.01.2018 kl 20:58
3870
her blir det nok en KRISE-EMISJON, rischioso!!!
Selskapet er gjeldstynget til tusen, og aksjonærene lider. De har blitt ledet inn i en blindgate, og selskapet må skrape sammen det de klarer av emisjonen som kommer til å bli satt laaaaangt under dagens kurs, dessverre...
Selskapet er gjeldstynget til tusen, og aksjonærene lider. De har blitt ledet inn i en blindgate, og selskapet må skrape sammen det de klarer av emisjonen som kommer til å bli satt laaaaangt under dagens kurs, dessverre...
questi
17.01.2018 kl 21:13
3820
Emisjon er en sjanse til å kjøpe flere aksjer :) om det virkelig stemmer at REC er i en likviditetskrise, er det uansett veldig positivt at de etter emisjon har frie hender igjen :) Da kan man bare lene seg tilbake og se hvordan selskapet vokser og komme til sin rett :)
Sa2ri
17.01.2018 kl 21:51
3728
Dersom det blir en emisjon blir det med all sannsynlighet en rettet emi og da med en tegning på min 100.000 euro, og det er det ikke alle som kan hoste opp på kort varsel. Ikke sikkert det blir en rep-emi heller. Da får ikke alle som ønsker muligheten til p kjøpe «billige» aksjer.
rischioso
17.01.2018 kl 22:22
3669
Det fremtidige etterspørsel estimatet for polysilicon er det i alle fall ikke noe å si på - "Polisilicon Boom 2018"...;)
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Solar PV 2018: Installs of 111 GW, a polysilicon factory boom and $0.30/W for modules.
On the back of high solar PV installs, which will smash records this year at just under 100 GW, BNEF’s optimistic demand forecasts place growth at 111 GW in 2018, rising to 121 GW in 2019.
It further sees a polysilicon factory boom, with production 10% up on 2017; and module prices dropping to as low as US$0.30/W for market leaders.
Polysilicon boom
BNEF notes that there is currently a global polysilicon factory boom underway, by both new and existing players, with a total 167kT of new capacity planned by the end of 2018. These include Korea’s OCI, an established player, and China-based East Hope, a new entrant, Jenny Chase, head of Solar Analysis at BNEF told pv magazine. Overall, 2017 is expected to see the production of 445,600 metric tons of polysilicon, a 13% increase on 2016.
“This is enough to support production of 97GW of crystalline silicon modules, assuming weighted average polysilicon consumption of 4.3 grams per watt and 30,000 metric tons sold to the electronics industry. This suggests quite tight supply compared with 2018 installation of 94 -111GW (of which 3-4GW will be thin-film),” write the report’s authors.
Polysilicon supply is forecast to increase by 10% in 2018, at around 490,000 tons, enough for 118 GW of crystalline silicon PV modules, said Chase, up 22% on 2017, “assuming the same electronics industry demand.”
Regarding prices, a surge was recorded, notably in China, where polysilicon was priced at $19/kg. This was higher than the $15/kg recorded elsewhere, “because of the import tariffs imposed on U.S. polysilicon and the fact it houses roughly 80% of world ingot capacity.
“A combination of unexpected high demand, temporary scarcity of metallurgical silicon feedstock (as some of the dirtier plants were closed down) and scheduled maintenance of polysilicon factories led to a fairly tight balance of supply and demand in 2017,” continues the report.
Prices are not expected to decrease much by the end of this year, or in the first half of 2018. However, BNEF writes that on the back of an increased usage of monocrystalline products and diamond wire saw (DWS) technology, and increased production capacities, polysilicon shortage will be alleviated in the coming year. Unless, of course, there is another installation boom, like that seen in China this year.
It elaborates, “ …polysilicon consumption per W of wafer side will decrease significantly next year when most of multi wafers are sliced by DWS, which could reduce silicon consumption by 17% per piece. Together with increasing market share of mono product, which generates more power from a single piece, we expect the unit consumption of polysilicon in 2018 to be 9% less than that in 2017.”
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/12/01/solar-pv-2018-installs-of-111-gw-a-polysilicon-factory-boom-and-0-30w-for-modules-2/
Redigert 17.01.2018 kl 22:38
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Odi.1
17.01.2018 kl 22:33
3609
"The Section 201 case may not end this month. Sources say broader solar trade negotiations could be in the offing—but that doesn’t guarantee lower tariffs."
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/solar-trade-settlement-exemptions-trump#gs.RFETUJA
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/solar-trade-settlement-exemptions-trump#gs.RFETUJA
Petersen2
19.01.2018 kl 20:58
3216
Hadde vært fantastisk om dette skjedde:
"An ideal settlement arrangement, according to some in the solar industry, would see China drop tariffs on U.S. polysilicon products and the U.S. drop all tariffs on solar cells and modules tariffs from the 201 case, as well as the previous anti-dumping and countervailing duties cases. Stakeholders would then take cash deposits from solar duties collected from China in past years (at a rumored value of $1.5 billion) and use the money to support new U.S. solar manufacturers, as well as Section 201 petitioners, Suniva and SolarWorld Americas, and possibly U.S. polysilicon companies too."
"An ideal settlement arrangement, according to some in the solar industry, would see China drop tariffs on U.S. polysilicon products and the U.S. drop all tariffs on solar cells and modules tariffs from the 201 case, as well as the previous anti-dumping and countervailing duties cases. Stakeholders would then take cash deposits from solar duties collected from China in past years (at a rumored value of $1.5 billion) and use the money to support new U.S. solar manufacturers, as well as Section 201 petitioners, Suniva and SolarWorld Americas, and possibly U.S. polysilicon companies too."